cnotes Posts:33074 Followers:38
03/20/2013 05:17 PM

Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, March 20

Play-in games (Dayton, Wed)
James Madison's leading scorer Goins is suspended for first half after he was arrested over weekend; Dukes finished 4th in #20 league, are 9-7 in non-league games. LIU won five in row, 15 of last 18 games after 6-game losing skid early in January; Blackbirds beat Hofstra by 4 in only game vs CAA foe- they finished T2 in #24 league, make 38.5% behind the arc (#16 in country). Seven of last eight JMU games were decided by 5 or less points. NEC squads are 2-0 in play-in games, winning by 22-9 in a pair of games vs MEAC teams- they haven't won any other tournament games in last 28 years.

Boise State won at Creighton, lost by 4 at Michigan State, they went 9-8 in MWC, 14-2 outside it; Broncos make 38.7% of 3's (#15 in country), but they're a young team (one senior in rotation) and depend on Marks to be explosive scorer (5-6-38-4-27-14 points last six games). LaSalle is also guard-oriented, making 37.1% behind arc. Unsure if 6-11 Zack will play here (missed last three games); Explorers are 3-2 vs top 60 teams, beating Villanova/VCU/Butler, losing to Miami/Saint Louis. MWC was #3 league this year, A-16 #8. Boise State is 4-7 vs top 60 teams. You'd think this would be a high scoring teams, with teams that can shoot.

Other tournaments
There is nothing as futile as trying to handicap these consolation events that run opposite the NCAAs, especially in the first round, because the most important issue is this: Who still wants to be playing? I have no idea who still wants to play; once they play a game or two, then maybe we can come up with something, but for this week, I'd stay away. That said, some very brief notes on these games........

-- Indiana State lost six of its last eight games; its last three wins were all by a point. Iowa split pair of neutral court tilts with MVC teams, with 75-63 loss to Wichita State, 80-73 win over Northern Iowa.
-- Charlotte is 6-9 in last 15 games after starting season 15-2; they make 26.7% behind arc, 4th-worst in country. Providence lost last two games, scoring 59-44 points; they split pair vs A-16 teams this year.
-- UMass is 10-3 outside A-16; they're 5-2 in last seven games, got beat by VCU in A-16 tourney. Stony Brook is 0-2 vs top 100 teams, losing by 11 at UConn, 7 at Maryland, both before Christmas.
-- Mercer is 5-5 outside A-Sun, winning at Alabama, losing at Georgia by 9; they lost other two top 100 games, by 29-18 points. Tennessee is 9-2 in last 11 games, disappointed to be left out of NCAAs.
-- Long Beach State played #1 non-league schedule in country, going 4-8 with six losses by 15+ points. Baylor beat Kansas by 23 here, but lost nine of last 13 overall.

-- Southern Miss was 0-3 vs Memphis this year, losing conference final in double OT to Tigers; they're 7-5 in last 12 games, after starting 18-4. Charleston Southern is 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 9-12-13 points.
-- Detroit went 8-6 vs #14 non-league schedule; they're 2-5 vs teams in top 100, beating Akron/Valpo. Arizona State played 6th-easiest slate in country pre-conference; they've lost five of last six games overall.
-- Western Illinois plays the slowest-paced games in America; their best player Parks was hurt during Summit tourney, status ?? here. Purdue is 5-9 in its last 14 games- they're only 7-6 in non-league games.
-- Richmond lost three of last four games; they make 38% from arc, #27 in US. Bryant's bench plays 2nd-least minutes in America; they're 6th-shortest- this is just their 5th year in D-I, so they're happy to be here.
-- Young Tulsa (#304 in experience/rookie coach) is 5-7 in last 12 games, but 3-2 in last five road games. Wright State won three of last four tilts, losing at Valparaiso in Horizon final.
-- North Dakota State won four of last five games; they lost at Akron by 15 in only game vs MAC opponent. Western Michigan is 2-3 in its last five games; they beat Oakland by 4, in only game vs Summit foe.

-- Inexperienced Texas (youngest team in country) is 6-4 since Kabongo got eligible; they're 10-0 this year vs teams ranked outside the top 150. Houston was 8-10 in C-USA; they played worst non-league schedule in entire country, going 11-2.
-- Elon hasn't played in 10 days; they won five of last seven road games. Canisius hasn't played in 11 days; they're 3-5 in last eight games overall. Griffs are 8-1 vs teams ranked outside top 200.
-- South Alabama gets 26.8% of points from foul line, #2 in nation; they lost by 14 at UAB, in only game vs C-USA opponent. Tulane lost five of last six games after starting season 18-9.
-- Green Bay is 0-2 vs MVC teams, losing by 2 to Southern Illinois at home, by 17 at Drake. Bradley lost 12 of last 18 games, after starting the season 10-4- they beat UIC by a point, only game vs Horizon team.
-- Ill-Chicago lost seven of last ten games; they're only 4-3 vs teams not in top 250. Chicago State is 0-3 vs Horizon teams, losing to Green Bay by 5, Valparaiso by 21, Loyola by 3 in OT.

-- Oral Roberts replaced UT-Arlington in Southland; they've lost four of last five games, went 5-8 vs #23 non-conference schedule. Arlington lost WAC final in Vegas Saturday; they're 9-4 in their last 13 games.
-- Cal Poly is 9-2 in its last 11 games; they play 3rd-slowest tempo in country- four of their last seven losses are by 2 points. Weber State lost Big Sky final at Montana, ending its 13-game winning streak.
-- Cal-Irvine lost Big West final in Anaheim Saturday; they're 8-2 in last ten games. High Point is 5-8 out of conference; they lost three of last four games, after 7-game win streak.
-- Northern Iowa (-16.5) beat North Dakota 72-47 Nov 17; UND made iust 5-22 behind arc, but won four of last five overall, blowing 12-point lead over Weber in Big Sky semis. UNI lost three of last four games.
-- Fairfield lost four of last six games, scoring 46.7 ppg; Stags are 2-4 vs teams in top 125, losing by 9-15-19-11 points. Kent State won six of its last seven games, then lost by 3 to Akron in MAC semis.
-- Air Force star Lyons (knee) is out; Falcons lost seven of last 10 games but beat Riverside by 8 in only game vs Big West opponent. Hawaii is 2-5 in last seven games, but won four of last five at home.
Reply With Quote

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33074 Followers:38
03/20/2013 05:18 PM


Wednesday, March 20

Trend Report

Wednesday, March 20

6:40 PM
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 6 of James Madison's last 8 games
James Madison is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

7:00 PM
Indiana State is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana State's last 6 games on the road
Iowa is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Iowa's last 8 games

7:00 PM
Richmond is 6-12-2 ATS in its last 20 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Richmond's last 8 games on the road
No trends available

7:00 PM
Tulsa is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tulsa's last 5 games on the road
Wright State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Wright State is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games at home

7:00 PM
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Western Michigan's last 8 games at home
Western Michigan is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home

7:00 PM
No trends available
Purdue is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
Purdue is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

7:00 PM
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Canisius's last 18 games
Canisius is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

7:15 PM
No trends available
Massachusetts is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Massachusetts's last 11 games

7:15 PM
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Charlotte's last 9 games on the road
Charlotte is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Providence is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Providence is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games

8:00 PM
No trends available
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games

8:00 PM
No trends available
Tulane is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Tulane's last 11 games

8:00 PM
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Bradley's last 6 games
Bradley is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

8:00 PM
No trends available
Illinois-Chicago is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Illinois-Chicago's last 5 games

8:30 PM
No trends available
Texas-Arlington is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games

9:00 PM
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Long Beach State's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baylor's last 9 games
Baylor is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games at home

9:00 PM
Texas is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Texas's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Houston's last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games at home

9:00 PM
No trends available
Weber State is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games
Weber State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

9:10 PM
No trends available
Boise State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

9:15 PM
No trends available
Southern Miss is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Southern Miss's last 8 games at home

10:00 PM
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona State's last 5 games at home
Arizona State is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games at home

10:30 PM
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 6 of UC Irvine's last 9 games
UC Irvine is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games

Thursday, March 21

1:00 AM
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hawaii's last 5 games
Hawaii is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

12:15 PM
No trends available
Michigan State is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Michigan State's last 6 games

12:40 PM
No trends available
Butler is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Butler's last 6 games

1:40 PM
No trends available
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

2:10 PM
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Saint Louis's last 5 games
Saint Louis is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games

3:10 PM
No trends available
Marquette is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Marquette's last 5 games

4:10 PM
No trends available
Gonzaga is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Gonzaga's last 9 games

4:40 PM
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma State's last 5 games
Oklahoma State is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games

7:15 PM
No trends available
Michigan is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Michigan is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games

7:20 PM
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games
Arizona is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games

7:27 PM
No trends available
UNLV is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
UNLV is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games

9:20 PM
No trends available
Colorado State is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Colorado State's last 7 games

9:45 PM
No trends available
Virginia Commonwealth is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games
Virginia Commonwealth is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

9:50 PM
No trends available
New Mexico is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New Mexico's last 11 games

9:57 PM
No trends available
Syracuse is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Syracuse is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games

Friday, March 22

12:15 PM
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Duke's last 6 games
Duke is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games

12:40 PM
No trends available
Wisconsin is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games
Wisconsin is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

1:40 PM
No trends available
North Carolina State is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of North Carolina State's last 8 games

2:10 PM
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games
Miami is 19-3 SU in its last 22 games

2:45 PM
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Creighton's last 12 games
Creighton is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 games

4:40 PM
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Illinois's last 8 games
Illinois is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

6:50 PM
No trends available
Georgetown is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games
Georgetown is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games

7:15 PM
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Ohio State's last 8 games
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

7:20 PM
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of North Carolina's last 9 games
North Carolina is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games

7:27 PM
No trends available
Florida is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Florida's last 9 games

9:20 PM
No trends available
San Diego State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego State's last 5 games

9:45 PM
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Notre Dame's last 6 games
Notre Dame is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games

9:50 PM
No trends available
Kansas is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games

9:57 PM
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of UCLA's last 6 games
UCLA is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33074 Followers:38
03/20/2013 05:19 PM


Wednesday, March 20

NCAA Play-in Games: JMU vs. LIU Brooklyn, La Salle vs. BSU

James Madison Dukes vs. LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds (-1.5, 144.5)

LIU Brooklyn is no stranger to the rigors of March as it begins its third consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament. While the Blackbirds have been turned away the previous two times by a pair of the nation’s elite programs, they should have a better opportunity to nail down their first NCAA tournament victory in school history Wednesday in a first-round matchup against James Madison in Dayton, Ohio. In its first two tournament appearances, LIU Brooklyn has exited quickly thanks to second-round games against North Carolina in 2011 and Michigan State in 2012.

The Blackbirds, who clinched an automatic berth by virtue of their victory over Mount Saint Mary’s in the Northeast Conference tournament title game, enter this round of 68 with the No. 5 scoring offense in the country at 79.5 points and tied for eighth in shooting (48.3 percent). The Dukes are on a four-game winning streak after capturing their second Colonial Athletic Association tournament championship. James Madison is seeking its first tournament win since bowing out in the second round three straight years from 1981-83.

TV: 6:40 p.m. ET, truTV

ABOUT JAMES MADISON (20-14, 21-10-0 ATS): The Dukes are in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1994 and fifth time in school history. James Madison received the bulk of its offense from A.J. Davis and Devon Moore – the team’s second- and third-leading scorers – during the conference tournament as they combined for 105 of the team’s 200 points. Leading scorer Rayshawn Goins enjoyed his best performance in the title game since missing a game Feb. 6 with a foot injury, shooting 6-for-10 with 14 points and 13 rebounds. Over his previous eight games, Goins averaged 9.1 points and 5 rebounds, but converted only 30.1 percent of his field-goal attempts.

ABOUT LIU BROOKLYN (20-13, 4-0-0 ATS): The Blackbirds overcame a number of obstacles to claim their third consecutive NEC crown as four players were suspended for their role in a fight this fall and reigning league player of the year Julian Boyd tore his anterior cruciate ligament in December. "Everything went right the last two years and this year they had to show their true colors," first-year coach Jack Perri said following the team’s 91-70 victory over Mount Saint Mary’s. Northeast Conference Player of the Year Jamal Olasewere is the Blackbirds’ all-time career scoring leader with 1,851 points and ranks fourth in school history with 953 rebounds.


* Dukes are 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games.
* Blackbirds are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral-site games.
* Dukes are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
* Under is 15-6-2 in Dukes' last 23 overall.


1. Northeast Conference tournament MVP C.J. Garner (16.1 points) averaged 28 during LIU Brooklyn’s three-game run in the conference tournament.

2. Coach Matt Brady has directed James Madison to three 20-win seasons in his five years, two more than the school posted since its last CAA title.

3. Perri became the third first-year coach to guide his team to the NEC tournament title.

La Salle Explorers vs. Boise State Broncos (-1.5, 139)

Guard play has taken on added significance in recent NCAA Tournament play, a trend that Boise State and La Salle have taken to an extreme. Two similar teams will take the court Wednesday when the Broncos and Explorers meet in a first-round game in Dayton, Ohio. Boise State relies heavily on its four-guard lineup and the nation’s 13th-best 3-point shooting team while La Salle can sometimes employ five guards and finished second in the Atlantic-10 averaging 8.1 steals.

The Broncos, who were the first team in the country to post multiple victories over ranked opponents, received an at-large bid following their fifth-place finish in the Mountain West. Boise State won five of six entering its conference tournament, but lost in the quarterfinals to San Diego State after defeating the Aztecs five days earlier. Similarly, La Salle won seven of eight before losing at Saint Louis to close out the regular season and against Butler in the Atlantic-10 tournament quarterfinals.

TV: 9:10 p.m. ET, truTV

ABOUT LA SALLE (21-9, 12-12-2 ATS): The Explorers received their first NCAA Tournament invite since 1992 and regularly start four guards, although five average at least 23.8 minutes. Ramon Galloway, a South Carolina transfer, leads La Salle in scoring, assists and steals. Sam Mills is 17-of-33 beyond the arc over his last nine games and often draws the opponent’s best perimeter player. However, the Explorers could be without 6-11 sophomore center Steve Zack, who is listed as day-to-day with a foot injury. Zack’s potential absence looms large against a Boise State team that lacks any significant size in its frontcourt.

ABOUT BOISE STATE (21-10, 16-11-0 ATS): The Broncos are in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2008 and sixth time in program history. Anthony Drmic (17.3 points) and Derrick Marks (16.3) make up one of the top-scoring guard duos in the country. While Drmic is the team’s leading scorer, Marks is the team’s best playmaker and leads the team in assists (3.9) as well as steals (1.8). Boise State is unlikely to be intimidated by the stage after winning at Creighton – behind a career-high 35 points from Marks – and losing by four at Michigan State during its non-conference schedule.


* Explorers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five neutral-site games.
* Broncos are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 neutral-site games.
* Over is 8-2 in Explorers' last 10 neutral-site games.
* Over is 6-1 in Broncos' last seven neutral-site games.


1. Marks leads Boise State with 13 blocked shots.

2. La Salle is 5-1 in games decided by three points or less.

3. The Broncos went 13-4 when they hit at least eight 3-pointers.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33074 Followers:38
03/20/2013 05:21 PM


Wednesday, March 20

NCAA tournament biggest betting mismatches: Round of 64

The NCAA tournament presents college basketball bettors with some unique matchups they wouldn’t get anywhere else, which makes the Big Dance ripe with mismatches.

Of course, you see more of these in games involving high and low seeds – like a No. 1 versus a No. 16 – but here are four underlying mismatches that may make or break your bets in the second round.

No. 3 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 14 Valparaiso Crusaders (+10, 127)

Spartans’ home-court edge vs. Crusaders’ Indiana roots

Michigan State wound up in the toughest region in the tournament – the Midwest – but it got the luck of the draw with its first two tournament games scheduled in its home state. The Spartans make the short trip to Detroit to face the Crusaders in the Palace of Auburn Hills Thursday, a homecoming for many of MSU’s players.

Valparaiso is just four hours from Detroit but Michigan basketball fans don’t take kindly to teams from Indiana, whether their names are the Hoosiers or the Crusaders.

"It's going to be a home game for them basically in Michigan," Valpo head coach Bryce Drew told

No. 12 Mississippi Rebels vs. No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers (-6, 28)

Rebels’ up-tempo offense vs. Badgers’ slow-motion sets

Ole Miss ranks 10th in the country in points per game (77.9) and fires up an average of 62 shots an outing – fifth most in the land. Wisconsin, on the other hand, attempted just 47 field goals in its 50-43 loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten title game and averages 65.5 points on the season. Someone’s got to give in this West Regional showdown.

The Rebels come into the tournament with a ton of momentum and a chip on their shoulder after winning the SEC championship but only receiving a No. 12 seed for their efforts. Ole Miss is hoping starting point guard Jarvis Summers can return from a concussion and dictate the flow but books seem to think Wisconsin will control the pace with the total set at 128 points – Mississippi’s second-lowest total all season.

No. 4 Saint Louis Billikens vs. No. 13 New Mexico State Aggies (+9, 122)

Billikens’ undersized F Dwayne Evans vs. Aggies’ 7-footer Sim Bhullar

Saint Louis built a ton of buzz heading into March, winning both the A-10 regular season and tournament titles. That success is in part due to 6-foot-5 forward Dwayne Evans, who has stepped up as the Billikens’ go-to scorer in recent games. Evans was recently called a "below-the-rim workaholic” by local reporters, which may not bode well for the SLU junior versus the Aggies’ towering frontcourt.

New Mexico State will plug 7-foot-5, 355-pound center Sim Bhullar in the middle of the paint in order to disrupt Evans. Bhullar averaged 10.2 points, 6.5 rebounds and swatted more than two blocks per game. Behind him is fellow Toronto native 6-foot-10 forward Renaldo Dixon, who averaged 1.3 blocks in just under 19 minutes a game. The Aggies finished 13th in the nation in swats – 5.5 an outing – and held opponents to 39.8 percent shooting.

No. 5 VCU Rams vs. No. 12 Akron Zips (+7.5, 135.5)

Rams’ pressure defense vs. Zips’ shaky backcourt

VCU leads the nation in steals (11.8 per game) and turnovers forced (19.9 per game). The Rams thrive on their foes' mistakes and turn those into points, a big reason why they shoot 44.9 percent from the field. It’s not too tough when you keep getting fast break layups.

The Zips are a man down heading into the NCAA after starting point guard Alex Abreu was arrested for drug trafficking and suspended before the MAC tournament. Akron had 31 total turnovers in the two games without Abreu and average 13.7 on the year. VCU head coach Shaka Smart was once an assistant for the Zips and knows Akron head coach Keith Dambrot very, very well.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33074 Followers:38
03/20/2013 05:37 PM

Wednesday, March 20

Game Score Status Pick Amount

James Madison - 6:40 PM ET LIU Brooklyn +0 500 POD # 7
LIU Brooklyn - Under 147.5 500

Indiana St. - 7:00 PM ET Iowa -11 500 POD # 3
Iowa - Under 134.5 500

Western Illinois - 7:00 PM ET Western Illinois +11.5 500
Purdue - Over 116.5 500

Tulsa - 7:00 PM ET Tulsa +6.5 500
Wright St. - Over 128 500

Richmond - 7:00 PM ET Richmond -4.5 500
Bryant - Over 146 500

North Dakota State - 7:00 PM ET North Dakota State +0 500 POD # 2
Western Michigan - Over 125 500

Elon University - 7:00 PM ET Canisius -6 500
Canisius - Over 145.5 500

Fairfield - 7:00 PM ET Fairfield +4.5 500
Kent St. - Over 126 500

Charlotte - 7:15 PM ET Providence -8.5 500
Providence - Under 138 500

Stony Brook - 7:15 PM ET Stony Brook +4 500
Massachusetts - Over 143 500

Mercer - 8:00 PM ET Tennessee -8 500
Tennessee - Under 127 500

Green Bay - 8:00 PM ET Green Bay -1 500
Bradley - Under 136.5 500

South Alabama - 8:00 PM ET South Alabama +6 500
Tulane - Over 143 500

Chicago St. - 8:00 PM ET Chicago St. +10.5 500
Illinois-Chicago - Over 130 500

North Dakota - 8:00 PM ET North Dakota +16 500
Northern Iowa - Over 133 500

Oral Roberts - 8:30 PM ET Oral Roberts +3.5 500
Texas-Arlington - Over 136.5 500

Long Beach St. - 9:00 PM ET Baylor -12 500 POD # 1
Baylor - Over 149.5 500

Texas - 9:00 PM ET Texas -3 500 POD # 5
Houston - Over 150 500

Cal Poly SLO - 9:00 PM ET Weber St. -6.5 500
Weber St. - Under 130 500

La Salle - 9:10 PM ET Boise St. -1.5 500 POD # 4
Boise St. - Over 139.5 500

Charleston Southern - 9:15 PM ET Southern Miss -11.5 500
Southern Miss - Under 144.5 500

Detroit - 10:00 PM ET Detroit +3.5 500
Arizona St. - Over 155 500

High Point - 10:30 PM ET High Point +8 500
UC Irvine - Over 135.5 500

Air Force - 11:59 PM ET Hawaii -1.5 500 POD # 6
Hawaii - Under 147.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33074 Followers:38
03/21/2013 09:50 AM

Thursday's Prime-Time Tips

March 20, 2013

**North Carolina A&T vs. Louisville**

--Louisville (29-5 straight up, 20-14 against the spread) and its fans will revel in taking over Rupp Arena this weekend, especially since the host school in Lexington saw its season end with an embarrassing loss at Robert Morris in the NIT. The Cardinals are the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament although the Midwest region looks like the toughest with power programs and Hall of Fame coaches (Duke and Michigan St.), not to mention dangerous and athletic teams like Memphis and Missouri.

--Most books have made U of L the +450 ‘chalk’ to win its first national championship since 1986. The Cardinals are the even-money favorites to win the Midwest region.

--Most shops have installed Louisville as a 26-point favorite with the total in the 123-124 range. 5Dimes has issued the Aggies with 75/1 odds to win outright (risk $100 to win $7,500).

--Louisville owns a 13-7 spread record in 20 games as a double-digit favorite.

--Rick Pitino’s team rolled through the Big East Tournament with wins over Villanova (74-55), Notre Dame (69-57) and Syracuse (78-61). Trailing the Orange 35-22 at halftime of the finals, U of L poured it on in the second half to capture the victory as a 5.5-point ‘chalk.’ Montrezl Harrell enjoyed a monster game from off the bench, scoring 20 points and grabbing seven rebounds in 24 minutes of playing time. Peyton Siva added 11 points, eight assists and four steals.

--The Cardinals are led by junior guard Russ Smith, who averages 17.9 points per game. Siva dishes out a team-high 5.9 assists per contest, while Gorgui Dieng averages a double-double (10.3 PPG, 10.1 RPG) and provides a defensive presence in the paint.

--North Carolina A&T (20-16 SU, 7-1 ATS) advanced with Tuesday’s First Four win over Liberty by a 73-72 count as a three-point favorite in Dayton. The Aggies got a defensive stop as time expired. Jeremy Underwood exploded for a team-high 19 points, making all six of his shots from the field and 5-of-6 from the charity stripe. Bruce Beckford added 16 points and nine rebounds on 8-of-10 shooting from the floor.

--Totals have been an overall wash (3-3) for the Aggies in their six games with a total.

--Totals have also been an overall wash (14-14) for the Cardinals, but they have seen the ‘over’ hit in each of their last four games.

--Tip-off is scheduled for 6:50 p.m. Eastern on TBS.

**South Dakota St. vs. Michigan**

--This is a 4/13 matchup that will be played at The Palace of Auburn Hills (obviously favoring the fourth-seeded Wolverines). Most spots are listing Michigan (26-7 SU, 14-16-1 ATS) as an 11.5-point favorite with the total in the 138-139 range. The Jackrabbits are +550 on the money line (risk $100 to win $550).

--John Beilein’s team is mired in an abysmal 2-10 ATS slump, losing six of those games outright. Michigan dropped a 68-59 decision to Wisconsin as a two-point favorite in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals. Trey Burke had 19 points and seven assists, but he made only 8-of-22 shots and committed four turnovers. Tim Hardaway Jr. shook off a turned ankle to score 14 points and grab nine boards despite getting only nine looks from the field.

--Burke and Hardaway lead the way for the Wolverines, but they get solid contributions from a trio of freshmen in Mitch McGary (57% FGs, 5.5 RPG), Glenn Robinson III (10.6 PPG) and Nik Stauskas (45% 3’s, 87% FTs).

--Since allowing a big lead to get away in a loss at Murray St. on BracketBuster Saturday, South Dakota St. (25-9 SU, 16-13 ATS) has won four in a row while going 3-1 versus the number. Scott Nagy’s squad beat North Dakota 73-67 as a one-point underdog in the Summit League Tournament finals. Nate Wolters scored a game-high 27 points while also pulling down six rebounds, dishing out six assists and making four steals. Jordan Dykstra added 18 points and seven boards.

--Wolters is one of the nation’s most underrated players, averaging 22.7 points, 5.8 assists and 5.6 rebounds per contest. Dykstra is also a terrific player. The six-foot, eight-inch power forward can bang in the lane and step out and stroke it from 3-point land. Dykstra, who averages 12.5 points and 7.9 rebounds per game, drains 3’s at a 43.0 percent clip. In his freshman and sophomore seasons, Dykstra made 51.5 and 47.3 percent of his treys, respectively.

--Michigan is 8-7-1 ATS in 16 games as a double-digit favorite.

--South Dakota St. owns a 7-3 spread record as an underdog this year, going 1-1 ATS as a double-digit ‘dog. The Jackrabbits won outright (70-65) at New Mexico as 15-point ‘dogs with Wolters producing 28 points, seven assists and five rebounds. They got drilled 88-64 at Minnesota but Wolters did not play due to a sprained ankle.

--The ‘over’ is 19-12 overall for Michigan.

--The ‘over’ is 10-9-1 overall for the Jackrabbits.

--CBS will have the telecast at 7:15 p.m. Eastern.

**Belmont vs. Arizona**

--This 6/11 matchup will be played in Salt Lake City. Most books are listing Arizona (25-7 SU, 14-16 ATS) as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 140. Gamblers can take the Bruins to win outright for a +170 return (risk $100 to win $170).

--Arizona beat Colorado 79-69 as a 4.5-point favorite in the Pac-12 Tournament quarterfinals behind a team-high 18 points from Nick Johnson. In the semifinals, the Wildcats allowed a double-digit second-half advantage to get away in a 66-64 loss to UCLA.

--Belmont (26-6 SU, 14-15 ATS) played from behind nearly the entire game but still found a way to capture a 70-68 overtime win over Murray St. in the Ohio Valley Tournament finals. However, the Racers took the cash as 7.5-point underdogs. Kerron Johnson was the hero, hitting a jumper to force OT at the end of regulation before scoring the game-winner with 1.2 seconds remaining in the extra session. J.J. Mann produced a team-high 18 points and seven rebounds for the winners.

--Belmont has been an underdog three times this season, going 1-2 both SU and ATS. The Bruins won 70-62 at Stanford as seven-point ‘dogs, but they lost 75-65 at VCU and 89-60 at Kansas.

--Rick Byrd’s squad had its best wins over South Dakota St. (76-49), Middle Tennessee (64-49) and Ohio (81-62).

--Sean Miller’s team is mired in a 7-14 ATS slide in its last 21 games. The Wildcats have lost outright in five of their last 10 games after getting off to a 20-2 start.

--Arizona has been a single-digit favorite 15 times this year, posting a 6-9 spread record. has Arizona with 50/1 odds to cut the nets down in Atlanta. Belmont's future number is 750/1 at the offshore website.

--The ‘under’ is 17-9-1 overall for Arizona.

--Although the ‘under’ has connected in four of its last six games, the ‘over’ is 13-9 overall for Belmont.

--Tip-off is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. Eastern on TNT.

**California vs. UNLV**

--This 5/12 matchup in San Jose is a rematch of a regular-season game played in Berkley, where UNLV captured a 76-75 win on Quintrell Thomas’s tip-in with 1.2 seconds remaining. However, California took the cash as a 1.5-point home underdog, while the 151 combined points slithered ‘over’ the 147-point total. Anthony Bennett led the way for the Runnin’ Rebels with 25 points and 13 rebounds. Allen Crabbe finished with a team-high 18 points for the Golden Bears.

--Most books are listing UNLV (25-9 SU, 13-20 ATS) as a three-point favorite with a total of 131. Bettors can take Cal to win outright for a +135 payout (risk $100 to win $135).

--California (20-11 SU, 12-16-1 ATS) carried a seven-game winning streak into its regular-season finale at home against arch-rival Stanford. But the Cardinal took it to the Bears in an 83-70 victory as a 5.5-point road underdog. Then at the Pac-12 Tournament, Mike Montgomery’s squad suffered a 79-69 loss to Utah in overtime as an eight-point ‘chalk.’ Justin Cobbs scored a game-high 26 points in the losing effort.

--UNLV has won seven of its last nine games, beating Air Force and Colorado St. by double-digit margins to make the Mountain West Conference Tournament finals on its home floor at the Thomas & Mack Center. But New Mexico won the MWC Tourney by collecting a 63-56 win as a 2.5-point underdog. Bryce Dejean-Jones had a team-high 19 points for the Rebels, while Bennett finished with 15 points and 11 rebounds.

--Bennett, the 6’8” 240-pound freshman, averages team-highs in scoring (16.1 PPG), rebounding (8.1 RPG) and field-goal percentage (53.8%).

--Crabbe and Cobbs are Cal’s leading scorers, averaging 18.7 and 15.5 PPG, respectively.

--California has been an underdog nine times this season, compiling a 3-6 record both SU and ATS.

--UNLV has been a single-digit favorite 14 times this year, going 6-8 ATS.

--Since 2003, UNLV has won four of five head-to-head meetings against Cal both SU and ATS.

--The ‘under’ is 16-9 overall for California.

--The ‘under’ is on a 7-2 run for the Rebels to improve to 17-9 overall.

--Tip-off is slated for 7:25 p.m. Eastern on TruTV.

**Missouri vs. Colorado State**

--For this 8/9 encounter, most books are listing Missouri (23-10 SU, 14-15 ATS) as a three-point favorite with a total of 142.5. Gamblers can back the Rams on the money line for a +140 return.

--Colorado St. (25-8 SU, 13-15-1 ATS) is mired in a 2-8-1 ATS slump in its last 11 games. The Rams lost a 75-65 decision to UNLV as five-point ‘dogs in the MWC Tourney semifinals. Colton Iverson was sensational in defeat, tallying 24 points and 16 boards.

--Colorado St. senior guard Dorian Green might not be at full speed as he continues to recover from a sprained ankle that kept him out of his team’s win over Fresno St. in the MWC Tourney quarterfinals. Green tried to play in the semifinal loss to UNLV, but he clearly wasn’t himself in 18 minutes of playing time, contributing just five points without any rebounds or assists. Green averages 12.8 points, 3.8 assists and 2.6 rebounds per game.

--Frank Haith’s team let a comfortable lead get away in the second half of a 64-62 loss to Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals last Friday night. The Tigers committed 16 turnovers and made only 7-of-13 free throws. Alex Oriakhi finished with 16 points, nine rebounds and a pair of blocked shots.

--If there’s a bright side to Missouri’s early exit from its first SEC Tourney in Nashville, the Tigers will have fresh legs this weekend at Rupp Arena in Lexington. They played at this venue on Feb. 23, losing 90-83 at Kentucky in overtime. Phil Pressey had 27 points, 10 assists and four steals in the loss to the ‘Cats.

--Missouri has been a single-digit ‘chalk’ nine times this year, posting a 5-4 spread record.

--Pressey is the catalyst for the Tigers and one of the nation’s most dynamic point guards. He averages team-highs in scoring (11.6 PPG), assists (7.1 APG) and steals (1.8 per game).

--Larry Eustachy’s squad is 3-4 ATS in seven games as an underdog.

--The ‘over’ has hit at a 6-0-1 clip in the Rams’ last seven games to improve to 11-9-1 overall.

--The ‘under’ has cashed in three consecutive games for Missouri, but the ‘over’ is 15-10 overall for the Tigers.

--The winner will face top-seeded Louisville unless North Carolina A&T becomes the first No. 16 seed to ever beat at No. 1 in NCAA Tournament history.

--TBS will provide television coverage 30 minutes after the conclusion of Louisville-North Carolina A&T.

**Akron vs. Virginia Commonwealth**

--Most books are listing No. 5 seed VCU (26-8 SU, 10-17 ATS) as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 134.5. Gamblers can take the Zips to win outright for a +320 return (risk $100 to win $320).

--Akron (26-6 SU, 14-12-1 ATS) got a tough draw by getting matched up with a VCU team that probably has the nation’s best full-court pressure defense. This is especially disconcerting for head coach Keith Dambrot because the Zips just lost their starting point guard and floor general Alex Abreu, who was suspended from the team less than two weeks ago following his arrest for multiple felonies stemming from a marijuana purchase from undercover officers. Abreu was averaging 10.3 points and 6.0 assists per game.

--Akron’s senior seven-foot center Zeke Marshall is fourth in the country in blocked shots, swatting away 3.7 shots per game. Marshall averages 13.0 points and 7.1 rebounds per contests. He is also fourth in the nation in field-goal percentage (65.4%).

--Shaka Smart’s squad is in the midst of a 2-6 ATS slump. When I backed the Rams as 7.5-point favorites vs. St. Joseph’s in the A-10 Tournament quarterfinals last Friday, they won by an 82-79 count but failed to cover after leading by 10 at halftime and by 16 with less than five minutes remaining.

--After beating St. Joe’s, VCU knocked off UMass 71-62 as an 8.5-point favorite to advance to the A-10 Tourney finals. The Rams came up short against Saint Louis, which won 62-56 as a 1.5-point ‘chalk.’

--VCU has a 4-8 spread record in 12 games as a single-digit favorite. Meanwhile, Akron has a 2-2-1 spread record with a pair of outright victories in five underdog spots. The Zips lost 69-65 to Oklahoma St. as four-point ‘dogs in the game that pushed.

--When these schools squared off last season, VCU won a 76-75 decision at Akron in overtime. However, the Zips hooked up their backers as 1.5-point home underdogs. The 151 combined points went ‘over’ the 140.5-point total thanks to OT (11 combined points scored in the extra session).

--The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight games for Akron to improve to 16-6-1 overall.

--Totals have been an overall wash (13-13) for VCU, but the ‘over’ has hit at a 7-3 pace in its last 10 games.

--This 5/12 matchup on CBS will tip 30 minutes after the conclusion of Michigan-South Dakota St. The winner gets the SDS-Michigan winner on Saturday.

**Harvard vs. New Mexico**

--After missing the NCAA Tournament every season since 1946, Harvard (19-9 SU, 13-12-1 ATS) is back in the Big Dance for a second straight year. This time around, the Crimson hopes to get its first win in school history. They lost 79-70 to Vandy last year in ‘The Brain Brawl.’

--Most books are listing third-seeded New Mexico (29-5 SU, 19-12-2 ATS) as an 11-point favorite with the total in the 125-126 range. Bettors can take the Crimson on the money line for a +550 payout (risk $100 to win $550).

--Steve Alford’s squad lost its regular-season finale 89-88 at Air Force as a four-point road favorite. The Lobos responded nicely by winning three in a row both SU and ATS in Las Vegas to win the MWC Tourney. They got a 21-point effort from Tony Snell in the win over UNLV to garner the league’s automatic bid.

--UNM has a 4-5-1 spread record in 10 double-digit ‘chalk’ situations this season.

--The Lobos are led by junior guard Kendall Williams, who averages 13.5 points, 4.9 assists and 3.6 rebounds per game. Snell averages 12.6 PPG and makes 84.3 percent of his free throws.

--Harvard won its last two regular-season games to wrap up the Ivy League title, but it has dropped three in a row ATS. The Crimson was able to recover from the loss of its two best players (Kyle Casey and Brandyn Curry) due to suspensions in November. Wesley Saunders, a sophomore, was the main reason why. Saunders led his team in scoring (16.5 PPG), field-goal percentage (53.8%) and steals (1.9 per game).

--Tommy Amaker’s team has thrived as an underdog this year, compiling a 7-2 spread record. Even better, Harvard is 4-0 ATS as a double-digit ‘dog. The Crimson covered the number as a double-digit ‘dog in a 67-64 loss at UMass, a 60-50 loss at Memphis, a 70-69 loss at Saint Mary’s and a 67-62 win at California.

--The ‘under’ is 17-10-2 overall for UNM.

--Harvard has watched the ‘under’ go 6-2 in its last eight games to improve to 11-10 overall.

--This game will tip from Salt Lake City 30 minutes after the end of Arizona-Belmont.

**Montana vs. Syracuse**

--After playing four games in four days at the Big East Tournament last week, the last thing Jim Boeheim wanted was to play on Thursday and do so out West (San Jose) against a well-rest team from out West. Furthermore, if the ‘Cuse advances, it will face either Cal or UNLV, both of whom hail from the West coast.

--Most books are listing Syracuse (26-9 SU, 17-14 ATS) as a 12.5-point favorite with a total of 127.5. The Grizzlies are +700 on the money line.

--Montana (25-6 SU, 17-11-1 ATS) has won six in a row and has taken the cash in each of its last seven games. The lone loss over this span was a 93-87 setback at Davidson in overtime. The Grizzlies took the cash as 14-point ‘dogs in the loss to Bob McKillop’s bunch.

--Montana has been without one of its best players for five consecutive games. Mathias Ward, who averages 14.8 points and 3.9 rebounds per game, remains ‘out’ with a broken foot.

--Wayne Tinkle’s team has been an underdog six times, going 3-3 ATS. The Grizzlies are 1-1 ATS in a pair of double-digit ‘dog spots. They got blasted 85-60 at BYU but took the money in the aforementioned defeat at Davidson.

--Syracuse owns a 9-5 spread record in 14 games as a double-digit favorite.

--The ‘under’ is 15-14 overall for the ‘Cuse, but the ‘over’ has cashed in three of its last four outings.

--The ‘over’ is 12-10 overall for Montana even though the ‘under’ has connected in three of its last four contests.

--The winner will get the UNLV-Cal winner.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33074 Followers:38
03/21/2013 09:56 AM

Thursday's Early Action

March 20, 2013

The 2013 Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament officially got underway this past Tuesday from Dayton with two games in the First Four Round, but starting this Thursday afternoon things really heat up with the first eight games in the Round of 64. To help get you ready for all the action the following is a brief betting preview of all eight games with lines provided by 5Dimes.

Midwest Regional – The Palace, Detroit (CBS, 12:15 p.m. ET)

No. 14 Valparaiso Crusaders (26-7) vs. No. 3 Michigan State Spartans (25-8)
Pointspread: Michigan State -10 ½
Total: 126 ½

The Crusaders earned its spot in the Midwest Region by winning the Horizon League Tournament after already claiming the regular season title. They went 9-1 straight-up in their last 10 games but were just 5-4-1 against the spread. The total stayed UNDER in four of their last five games. Valpo is averaging 71.7 points a game while shooting 48.9 percent from the field.

Michigan State bowed out of the Big Ten Tournament with a 61-58 loss to Ohio State as a 1 ½-point underdog. It had won six of its previous nine games while going 4-4-1 ATS. The Spartans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a SU loss. Look for Keith Appling and Gary Harris to lead the way after combining for an average of 26.5 points a game this season.

East Regional – Rupp Arena, Lexington (tru TV, 12:40 p.m. ET)

No. 11 Bucknell Bison (28-5) vs. No. 6 Butler Bulldogs (26-8)
Pointspread: Butler 3 ½
Total: 122

Bucknell claimed the Patriot League title to punch its ticket to the Big Dance. It comes into this matchup riding a seven-game winning streak but it has failed to cover in its last three games with a posted line. The Bison are averaging 67.3 points while holding their opponents to just 57.7 points a game.

The Bulldogs are back in the NCAA Tournament as an at-large entry after posting an 11-5 SU record in their first season in the Atlantic 10. They went just 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS in their last seven games and the total has stayed UNDER in four of their last six. The top scorer for Butler this season has been Rotnei Clarke with an average of 16.7 points a game.

West Regional – EnergySolutions Arena, Salt Lake City (TBS, 1:40 p.m. ET)

No. 9 Wichita State Shockers (26-8) vs. No. 8 Pittsburgh Panthers (24-8)
Pointspread: Pittsburgh -4 ½
Total: 118 ½

The Shockers earned their at-large bid in the Midwest Region with a 12-6 record in the Missouri Valley Conference but come in with just two SU wins in their last five games and a 1-4 record ATS. The total has gone OVER in four of their last six games. To advance, Wichita State will need a big game from Cleanthony Early and Carl Hall, who combined for 26.4 points and 12.3 rebounds this year.

Pittsburgh finished fourth in the Big East regular season standings at 12-6 and came up short in the tournament with a 62-59 loss to Syracuse as a 2 ½-point favorite. The Panthers are just 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games and the total has gone OVER in their last three. They are averaging 69.6 points a game while shooting a very respectable 47.5 percent from the field.

Midwest Regional – HP Pavilion, San Jose (TNT, 2:10 p.m. ET)

No.13 New Mexico State Aggies (24-10) vs. No.4 Saint Louis Billikens (27-6)
Pointspread: St. Louis -9
Total: 122

New Mexico State rolled through the Western Athletic Tournament to gain its automatic bid. It went 8-2 SU down the stretch but failed to cover in five of the 10 games. The total stayed UNDER in its last three games. Daniel Mullings led the Aggies in scoring with 14 points a game with Bandja Sy chipping-in 11.7 points and a team-high 7.3 rebounds.

The Billikens are 15-1 SU in their last 16 games and have been extremely profitable to wager on during this run with an identical record ATS. They rolled through the A 10 Tournament after winning the regular season title with a conference record of 13-3. St. Louis has five players averaging over nine points a game led by Dwayne Evans’ team-high 13.7 points.

Midwest Regional – The Palace, Detroit (CBS, 2:45 p.m. ET)

No. 11 St. Mary’s Gaels (28-6) vs. No. 6 Memphis Tigers (30-4)
Pointspread: St. Mary's -1
Total: 138

The Gaels already got their feet wet in tournament action with a solid 67-54 victory over Middle Tennessee as 2 ½-point favorites in Tuesday night’s First Four Round. They went 16-3 SU in the West Coast Conference this season with all three losses coming to Gonzaga. The player to watch on this team is Matthew Dellavedova, who is averaging 15.8 points game.

Memphis cruised through its Conference USA schedule this season with a perfect 16-0 SU record, but it is just 5-4 ATS in its last nine games. The total has gone OVER in its last four outings. The Tigers have been a tough out all year long behind an offense that is averaging 75.9 points a game while shooting 47.9 percent from the field

West Regional – Rupp Arena, Lexington (tru TV, 3:10 p.m. ET)

No. 14 Davidson College Wildcats (26-7) vs. No. 3 Marquette Golden Eagles (23-8)
Pointspread: Marquette 3 ½
Total: 133

Davidson may be a 14 seed but it brings a 17-game winning streak into this matchup that culminated in a Southern Conference Championship. The Wildcats are 3-1 ATS in their last four games and the total has stayed UNDER in three of their last five games. They are averaging 73.7 points led by Jake Cohen and De’Mon Brooks, who combine for 28.6 points a game.

The Golden Eagles bowed out of the Big East Tournament with a 73-65 loss to Notre Dame as three-point favorites. They are 4-2 SU in their last five games but just 2-4 ATS and the total has gone OVER in four of the games. Marquette is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games following a SU loss but only 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 non-conference games.

West Regional – EnergySolutions Arena, Salt Lake City (TBS, 4:10 p.m. ET)

No. 16 Southern University A&M Jaguars (23-9) vs. No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs (31-2)
Pointspread: Gonzaga -21 ½
Total: 126 ½

By virtue of winning the Southwestern Athletic Tournament crown, the Jaguars earned the right to try and make NCAA Tournament history by taking out a top seed. They come in with seven SU wins in their last eight games and are averaging 67.7 points a game while holding opponents to 58.4 points on the other end of the court.

The pressure will be on the Bulldogs as not only a one seed in this tournament but as the No.1 ranked team in the country. They have been opened at 10/1 to keep their current 14-game winning streak going for six more games all the way to a national title. Gonzaga has not been as reliable ATS with a 5-3-1 record in its last nine games. The total has stayed UNDER in eight of those games.

Midwest Regional – HP Pavilion, San Jose (TNT, 4:40 p.m.)

No. 12 Oregon Ducks (26-8) vs. No. 15 Oklahoma State Cowboys (24-8)
Pointspread: Oklahoma State -3
Total: 134 ½

Oregon claimed this season’s Pac-12 Tournament title with a 78-69 win over UCLA as a 1 1/2-point favorite. While it covered in that game, it went just 2-5-1 ATS in its previous eight games and the total has gone OVER in six of its last nine games. The Ducks have a trio of solid scorers in EJ Singler, Carlos Emory and Damyean Dotson, who are each averaging around 11 points a game.

The Cowboys came up short in their bid to win the Big 12 Tournament with a 68-57 loss to Kansas State as 1 ½-point underdogs. They went 5-2 SU in their last seven games and 3-3-1 ATS. The total has gone OVER in four of their last five games. Oklahoma State has four players scoring in double figures led by Marcus Smart (15.4 points) and Markel Brown (15.4 points).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33074 Followers:38
03/21/2013 09:59 AM

Big Dance Breakdown

March 20, 2013

By Selection Sunday standards, this season's rendition was a bit tame. No real surprises in the mix; few complaints from the masses. For the most part (with a possible exception or two that we'll note in a moment), the Committee seems to have gotten the 68-team field right for once.

Still, the perception that the process is anything other than a subjective act continues to be forwarded by the Selection Committee, when nothing could be further from the truth. Among the TV talking heads on Sunday, only ESPN's Jay Bilas was inclined to question the Committee's process because of what appeared to be some inconsistencies both in seeding and in eventual criteria for separating teams at the cut line.

For us, we conceded long ago that the Big Ten was going to be given a wide berth by the Committee, though upon closer inspection we wonder why. Moreover, it was as if the Committee simply borrowed the talking points from sorts such as Andy Katz and Joe Lunardi about the SEC being in such a down cycle this season. Regarding the latter, however, we detected some inconsistencies with the Committee and, for that matter, the majority of media talking heads who have similarly downgraded the SEC this season.

We have long believed that the selection process, while tedious, is also mostly overblown by the media and the Committee itself, which guards the secrets of its 10-man enclave in Indianapolis as if it is dealing with national security. There are a handful of former national defense secretaries like Bob Gates and Leon Panetta who are looking for things to do these days; perhaps they should be included into next year's Big Dance Selection Committee mix to maintain that cloud of secrecy.

For us, we have to wonder about the sharpness of the Committee when it violated one of its supposed tenets and slotted regular-season rematches (supposedly a no-no) at the top of a sub-regional round. The reaction of the CBS crew (Doug Gottlieb in particular) confirmed that oversight when UNLV and Cal were unveiled as a Thursday matchup in San Jose. The Runnin' Rebels and Golden Bears played a regular-season game back on December 9 at Berkeley, and their rematch was one of the questions addressed to Committee Chairman Mike Bobinski, who fumbled around for a proper answer.

Apparently, according to Bobinski, the Committee had boxed itself in and had no alternative but to put UNLV and Cal against one another. Which we find curious, as with a simple paper, pencil, and notes, we have been able to seed a projected NCAA field for the last two months while avoiding rematches at the top of sub-regional action. All it takes is a pencil with an eraser to move some of the teams around to prevent what is supposedly a Big Dance no-no.

The wide space granted to the Big Ten might also be a bit misplaced. Especially when referring to Minnesota, whose 5-11 record over its last 16 games was never mentioned once by one of the talking heads that instead seemed to be comparing the Gophers to Bill Russell's old USF title teams when discussing what a fundamental mismatch it would be for UCLA when facing the "mighty" Golden Gophers in the first round.

Upon further inspection of information from the first half of the season, we acknowledge some of the Big Ten's impressive performances, but it's not an airtight case for Big Ten superiority. Wisconsin, after all, lost almost every challenging non-league game (vs. Florida, Creighton, Virginia, and Marquette...three of those losses by double-digit margins) it played. Ohio State's non-conference victims list is dotted with Rhode Island, Savannah State, Northern Kentucky, and Winthrop; the Buckeyes lost when stepping up to face Duke and Kansas. No shame there, but similar criteria when used to evaluate teams from other leagues was apparently overlooked.

Indiana had two significant non-conference games; it beat Georgeotwn in OT in Brooklyn before the Hoyas hit stride, and lost vs. Butler. The win over North Carolina came long before the Tar Heels hit stride later in the season. Michigan State beat Kansas and several lesser entities but lost vs. UConn and Miami-Florida. While Gonzaga was disparaged by several talking heads for its loss to Illinois and a so-so non-league slate (which was not true, as the Zags went 5-0 vs. the Big 12), Michigan got lots of credit for its win over Kansas State and a pair of other successes vs. Pitt and N.C. State teams that were no better than the eighth-line teams in Dance seeding. Iowa beat Iowa State, but was whipped by Wichita State and Virginia Tech. Illinois won at Maui and dealt Gonzaga one of its two regular-season defeats, but was also routed in St. Louis by SEC rep Missouri.

Speaking of the SEC, we have to wonder why the Committee and the talking heads seemed to absolve Florida of its association with the league and rewarded the Gators a three-seed in the Dance while downgrading the rest of the loop. Florida lost every game it played that was decided by single digits and dropped five SEC games played away from Gainesville, including the conference tourney finale in Nashville vs. Ole Miss. If the SEC was so terrible, why did the Gators keep losing league games, as did supposedly highly-regarded Missouri, which lost seven of nine road games in the league as well as a pre-conference date at UCLA? But, for some reason, the Committee made exceptions for Florida and, to a lesser extent Missouri, as did the talking heads by refusing to clump those two with the rest of the loop.

There were also inconsistencies (as ESPN's Bilas noted) about the inclusion of Middle Tennessee as one of the last at-large teams (or, apparently, the last at-large, as Committee Chair Bobinski seemed to indicate) at the expense of a Tennessee, which was hot down the stretch. Bobinski again stumbled for answers other than noting that MTSU had beaten the same Ole Miss team that had toppled the Vols twice. The Blue Raiders, however, lost other challenging non-league assignments vs. Florida, Akron, and Belmont.

We're on record as having no problem with mid-majors like the Sun Belt catching an occasional break from the Selection Committee. And Tennessee could have probably moved to the safe side of the cut line had it beaten Alabama in the quarters of the SEC tourney last week in Nashville. Still, we might have picked the Vols over MTSU.

Elsewhere, there were questions related to seeding, especially the apparent downgrading of the Pac-12, where Oregon and Cal both received lower-than-expected 12 seeds (although Bobinski noted that each was originally an 11 seed, and was moved down a line in the procedural "bump" the Committee reserves in order to balance the field). Still, we believe this is really much ado about nothing, as 12 seeds usually have a better deal than eight or nine-seeds that are almost assuredly going to have to face regional number one seeds in the round of 32, as opposed to a more-beatable 4 or 5 seed. Although a downgraded seeding can dent the psyche of a team, in fact it often acts as a blessing in disguise. The fact that a 12 seed has advanced to the Sweet 16 in all but three years since the modern seeding of the tourney began in 1985 (a much better percentage than eight of nine seeds) is a confirmation that sometimes it can be better to be a bit downgraded at the outset.

We also wonder about all of the discussion regarding the top regional seeds, which seems like a manufactured storyline to us. Practically speaking, there is effectively no difference between a one and a two seed, except that a handful of 2's have been knocked off by 15 seeds in the last three decades. Whether Gonzaga is a one or two seed is going to have little impact on the proceedings save for being a nice feather in the Zags' hat.

The bottom line? The Selection Committee is comprised of humans, and they make the decisions, not the machines. We just wish that more members would confirm the selection process as a subjective exercise. And we'd also suggest a sequester of the Committee members from exposure to the TV talking heads who so seem to influence their thought process.


The unexpected runs of mid-majors such as George Mason and Butler (and Virginia Commonwealth in 2011) to the Final Four in recent years have prompted us to offer a "mid-major alert" each of the past few seasons, highlighting teams to watch that could emerge and deliver a similar run in the Dance. Following are a handful of those sides that we would watch closely...

Davidson (SUR 26-7; seeded 14th in East)...Among all of the mid-major entries, we suspect the Wildcats might be the most complete and dangerous team. All starters returned from last year's side that made it to the Dance and gave Louisville a fight in the sub-regionals. Well-balanced, with six players who led the team in scoring in at least one game this season. A unique weapon in Ryan Kelly-like, Euro-style 6-10 F Jake Cohen (14.8 ppg), and a matchup nightmare in 6-7 swingman De'Mon Brooks (13.8 ppg), who can post-up smaller defenders. Team FT shooting (80.1%) is the best in the nation; G Nik Cochran (94.1%) tops all. Underrated, vet HC Bob McKillop has taken several teams to the Dance that did not include Stephen Curry. Pushed New Mexico to the limit in a challenging non-conference slate that also included Gonzaga and Duke. Junior-senior dominated roster that returned eight of nine top contributors from last season...the sort of team makeup that suggests it can at least be a dangerous underdog.

Belmont (SUR 26-6; seeded 11th in West)...No longer a well-kept secret, vet HC Rick Byrd's Bruins make a return visit return to the Dance after moving from the Atlantic Sun to the Ohio Valley. Electric backcourt featuring senior G's Ian Clark (18.3 ppg & 54.3% FGs) and Kerron Johnson (13.5 ppg). But balanced beyond the backcourt, with four starters scoring in double figures. Whipped South Dakota State at Nashville in December; other notable wins over Stanford and Ohio. Not big (no starter taller than 6'7) and probably a bit too perimeter-oriented to make a Mason, Butler, or VCU-type run, but Byrd is due for a win in the Dance after losing in five previous tries. Arizona is forewarned for the Thursday game in Salt Lake City.

South Dakota State (SUR 25-9; seeded 13th in South)...Back for another try after competitive loss vs. Baylor in the sub-regionals last year. Four starters returned from that tourney team, led by hot-shooting G Nate Wolters (22.7 ppg), who exploded for 53 points in a Feb. 7 win at IPFW. Wolters is more than a shooter, also a drive-and-kick penetrator who can count upon a squadron of dagger-throwing teammates including F Jordan Dykstra and G Chad White, both 43% beyond the arc. Efficient on the attack end by limiting TO's, this is still a perimeter-oriented squad that has some defensive liabilities. But could be a very tricky matchup nonetheless, especially vs. a team that is lax in defending the arc. Famously won at The Pit vs. New Mexico in December after an arduous 1200-mile bus ride from Nashville (after the Jackrabbits lost to Belmont) necessitated by weather conditions that grounded air travel. Rumor has it the team made at least one Waffle House stop en route to Albuquerque.

Bucknell (SUR 28-5; seeded 11th in East)...The alma mater of CBS head honcho Les Moonves, the Bison could be the latest in a string of Patriot League reps that have made some noise in recent Dances, including a year ago when Lehigh famously dumped Duke in the sub-regional. The Bison returned four starters from last year's NIT team, including 6-11 sr. C Mike Muscala, one of the best-kept secrets in the country after scoring 19.1 ppg and hauling in 11 rpg this season. Which means that foes are going to have to vigorously defend the post vs. Bucknell. The "outside" part of the inside-outside balance is courtesy of capable Gs 6-5 jr. Cameron Ayers (12.7 ppg) and sr. Bryson Johnson (11.5 ppg), both proficient shooting 3s. Notable wins this season include Purdue, La Salle, and New Mexico State.

Northwestern State (SUR 23-8, seeded 14th in South)...KO'd favored Stephen F. Austin in the Southland Tourney finale, although that was the Demons' second win in three tries vs. the Lumberjacks. Led the nation in scoring offense for much of the season thanks a relentless lineup that goes 10-deep; top scorer F DeQuan Hicks (14.2 ppg) usually comes off the bench. Defense a bit suspect, as we noted in its BracketBuster loss at Niagara, but NW can prove an awkward matchup due to its go-go style for HC Mike McConathy. Beat La Tech in early December and was a close loser at Oklahoma and LSU.

Montana (SUR 25-6, seeded 13th in East)...The Grizzlies were functioning minus top scorer F Mathias Ward (14.8 ppg; foot injury) for the last month of the season, this after high-scoring G Will Cherry (14.5 ppg) missed the first month of the campaign with his own broken foot. Cherry also missed some late-season action with another foot injury, but was back in the lineup for the Big Sky Tourney and win in the finale vs. dangerous Weber State. With Cherry and Ward absent for long stretches this season, F Kareem Jamar (14.2 ppg) stepped into the breach and was named Big Sky MVP. Lost four games early with Cherry out of starting lineup due to injury, but sent a warning shot in the BracketBuster at Davidson, pushing the Wildcats into OT despite being minus Ward and with Cherry re-injuring his foot in the 2nd half. Repeat Big Dance qualifier after losing to Wisconsin in sub-regional action last season.

Let's hope we're still talking about one or more of these teams next week for the Sweet 16; the tourney is always a bit more memorable when at last one Cinderella side emerges!

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33074 Followers:38
03/21/2013 10:01 AM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

According to Forbes Magazine, the six most valuable college basketball programs:

6) Indiana Hoosiers are worth $21.8M; LY’s profit, $14.4M.

5) Ohio State Buckeyes are worth $23.1M; LY’s profit, $13.6M.

4) Kentucky Wildcats are worth $32.1M; LY’s profit, $19.9M.

3) North Carolina Tar Heels are worth $32.8M; LY’s profit, $19.9M.

2) Kansas Jayhawks are worth $32.9M; LY’s profit, $19.9M.

1) Louisville Cardinals are worth $38.5M; LY’s profit: $24.5M.


Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Welcome to the best four days of the year.......

13) Why do I get the idea that for the next four days, unless something really big happens, Joe Biden is running the country?

12) So when Robert Morris beat Kentucky at home Tuesday, it set off one of the better court rushes of alltime; ESPN interviewed coach Andy Toole on the court about what the win means. Would’ve been awesome if he had just looked into the camera and said truthfully,

“It means I’m getting a better job!!!”

This is the unusual case of a team being better off in the NIT than the NCAA’s, they got lot of extra publicity out of beating Kentucky.

11) Robert Morris’ win will set non-conference scheduling back, as the big boys will turn their nose up at true road games, even moreso than they do now. When was the last time Kentucky played a true road game in a gym that seats less than 5,000 people?

10) Since 1993, Louisville is 3-11-1 vs spread in its first tournament game; this is just their second #1 seed- they beat Morehead State by 20 (-20.5) in first round, the other time they were a 1-seed.

9) So couple years after the Carmelo Anthony trade, did one side get the better of it? Knicks are 39-26, but have oldest roster in league, they’ve lost four of last five games and are looking into signing Hawkeye Pierce to take care of their MASH unit full of injured players.

Denver is 47-22, has won 13 games in a row and appears to be a legit threat in the West. I’m thinking Denver got the better of the deal.

Feel bad for Mike Woodson though; he’s a very good coach saddled with an old team that ain’t getting healthier as the playoffs approach.

8) There are 21 Division I basketball schools in Texas, none made the tournament, first time Lone Star State got blanked since 1977, when it was a 32-team tourney. Damn, I was in high school back then.

7) Youngstown State made an astounding 18-35 behind arc in its 99-87 win over defenseless Oakland Tuesday. LMU made 21 treys vs Michigan in second round of the 1990 tournament, and from what I can tell, that is the most treys any team has made in a D-I college game.

6) Hockey legend Bobby Orr, who was Wayne Gretzky before Gretzky, but as a defenseman, turned 65 this week. Orr was one of my first childhood heroes; boy could he skate!!!

Knee injuries shortened his career. I met him in 1986; very nice man, but he could hardly walk, his knees were so bad. Orr turned the Bruins around almost single-handedly; he is still revered in Boston.

5) An umpire broke his hand in a spring training game, so one of the other umps went in to put his chest protector on to take his place behind the plate. Veteran ump Tim McClelland, in order to keep the exhibition game moving, called balls/strikes from behind the pitcher for four batters, until the other ump was ready to go. That’s what they do in Little League!!!

4) NFL might play the Pro Bowl by having captains choose up sides, like we did on the playgrounds as kids. Whatever, I’m still not watching. Choosing up sides would be intriguing for the NBA All-Star Game, though.

3) Listening to Bill Walton working SF Austin-Stanford NIT game Tuesday, it occurred to me that I’d love to be as positive about everything as he is. Not everyone can be that way, but I enjoy his TV work very much.

2) Stephen F Austin University is in Nacogdoches, TX; they lost Southland finals to Northwestern State, which is in Natchitoches, LA.

Say that three times fast.

1) The next four days are among my most favorite of the year; I plan on doing nothing but watching basketball, eating and talking to friends about basketball and eating. Enjoy the tournament!!!!

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33074 Followers:38
03/21/2013 10:03 AM


Akron vs. VCU
The Rams look to build on their 11-1 ATS record in their last 12 NCAA tournament games. VCU is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Rams favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: VCU (-7 1/2). Here are all of today's games.


Game 707-708: North Carolina A&T vs. Louisville (6:50 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina A&T 50.898; Louisville 78.019
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 27; 119
Vegas Line: Louisville by 25 1/2; 123 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-25 1/2); Under

Game 709-710: Missouri vs. Colorado State (9:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 67.227; Colorado State 66.212
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 1; 145
Vegas Line: Missouri by 3; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (+3); Over

Game 711-712: Davidson vs. Marquette (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Davidson 64.840; Marquette 66.761
Dunkel Line: Marquette by 2; 128
Vegas Line: Marquette by 3 1/2; 133
Dunkel Pick: Davidson (+3 1/2); Under

Game 713-714: Bucknell vs. Butler (12:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bucknell 60.135; Butler 62.042
Dunkel Line: Butler by 2; 127
Vegas Line: Butler by 3 1/2; 122
Dunkel Pick: Bucknell (+3 1/2); Over

Game 715-716: Valparaiso vs. Michigan State (12:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Valparaiso 61.969; Michigan State 73.335
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 11 1/2; 129
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 10 1/2; 126
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-10 1/2); Over

Game 717-718: St. Mary's vs. Memphis (2:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's 69.277; Memphis 67.195
Dunkel Line: St. Mary's by 2; 134
Vegas Line: Memphis by 1; 138
Dunkel Pick: St. Mary's (+1); Under

Game 719-720: Akron vs. VCU (9:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 58.834; VCU 68.177
Dunkel Line: VCU by 9 1/2; 130
Vegas Line: VCU by 7 1/2; 134 1/2
Dunkel Pick: VCU (-7 1/2); Under

Game 721-722: South Dakota State vs. Michigan (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota State 59.139; Michigan 68.777
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 9 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: Michigan by 11 1/2; 139
Dunkel Pick: South Dakota State (+11 1/2); Over

Game 723-724: Southern vs. Gonzaga (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern 52.744; Gonzaga 72.285
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 19 1/2; 121
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 22 1/2; 126 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern (+22 1/2); Under

Game 725-726: Wichita State vs. Pittsburgh (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wichita State 65.119; Pittsburgh 67.699
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 4 1/2; 118 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wichita State (+4 1/2); Over

Game 727-728: Harvard vs. New Mexico (9:50 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 56.144; New Mexico 66.199
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 10; 130
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 11 1/2; 125
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (+11 1/2); Over

Game 729-730: Belmont vs. Arizona (7:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Belmont 62.630; Arizona 65.486
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 3; 136
Vegas Line: Arizona by 4 1/2; 140
Dunkel Pick: Belmont (+4 1/2); Under

Game 731-732: Oregon vs. Oklahoma State (4:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 65.241; Oklahoma State 66.443
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 1; 138
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 3 1/2; 134 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (+3 1/2); Over

Game 733-734: New Mexico State vs. St. Louis (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 61.954; St. Louis 72.249
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 10 1/2; 118
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 8 1/2; 122
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-8 1/2); Under

Game 735-736: California vs. UNLV (7:27 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: California 62.529; UNLV 67.049
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: UNLV by 2 1/2; 131
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (-2 1/2)

Game 737-738: Montana vs. Syracuse (9:57 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 56.818; Syracuse 68.500
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 11 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 13; 127 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montana (+13); Over

Game 739-740: Denver at Maryland (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 64.696; Maryland 71.146
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 6 1/2; 124
Vegas Line: Maryland by 3 1/2; 128
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-3 1/2); Under
Reply With Quote

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: