theplatinumstandard Posts:20 Followers:0
On 09/30/2011 04:50 PM in MLB

MLB ALDS game 1 Betting Trends and Picks

Never had time to post the Pitt 5 unit Platinum Play last night. So hopefully this info and plays makes up for it.

A look at Popular ALDS Game 1 Trends and Information:

- Since 1999 my database lists a NYY series up for grabs. Meaning, a NYY match-up against anyone, shows no solid evidence of a game 1 winner moving on to the next round. In fact, from 2000-2006 the winner of the first game in a NYY opening round series went on to lose the series in all of those years in round 1. That was 7 straight years. So the winner of tonight's game is not a sure bet to win the series.

- As for the other series', well the winners of game 1 have exceptional value moving forward, as the streak is at 9-0 from the NYY and Detroit series back in 2006. All 9 game 1 winners moving forward have went on to the championship series. This streak is current and should have an eye kept on it. The current record over the last 12 ALDS is a 14-10 mark when the winner moves on more than not after a game 1 win. Take out the NYY series' that didn't produce, how about 14-3. Now to be fair, if we eliminate the NYY series all together, you would have to take 4 wins off the tally. So a 10-3 mark shows that after game 1, if it isn't a NYY series, your likely looking at your one ALCS team. Use this stat in key situations, especially in a game 5.

- If you like betting the Yankees, they are 4-2 in game 1's as a # 1 seed since 1999.

- Looking at Overs/Unders in this round shows us plenty of trendy statistics. The biggest comes in the AL, where #1 seeds have gone 8-4 to the Under in game 1's over the last 12 ALDS. The number 3 seeds have an even better mark of 10-2 to the Under. When pitting these teams together it combines an 6-18 O/U mark, so playing the Under is a crucial part in surviving the opening game. Throw in a 1 Vs. 3 match-up, a 7-0 mark pops up playing the Under.

- Another noteable trend is for the 2 seed Vs. Wild Card match-up. The Wild Card teams have gone over at a solid clip. A 9-3 O/U mark since 1999. Mix this with a number 2 seed the number is 16-8 O/U respectively. Facing off against each other shows a 5-2 mark favoring the Over. Keep in mind with the total set at 8.5 the #2 Vs. WC has shown an under in 2 of 3. Fair game on anything 8 and under, 9 and Over.

- Also keep in mind that there have been 9 O/U splits over the last 12 years in game 1. Simply meaning 9 of 12 years there was 1 Over and 1 Under after game 1 in the ALDS. In 1999 and 2009, 10 years apart, two Unders hit in each of those years, with 2002 showing a 2-0 to the Over in game 1. This has never failed 2 years in a row since tracking in 1999. After the 2009 loss, this trends split last year. Something to look into after the first game is said and done.

- The Underdogs make solid plays in game 1 when showing a 2 seed against a 3 seed or WC opponent. A 9-3 mark speaks for itself, considering your getting plus money in 9 of 10 opportunities. Makes this a no brainer on the dogs in game 1. This was on a 9-0 run until the fave won the last 3 game 1's, 2010, 2009, and 2008. Testing streaks here, so maybe see how this pans out, but 75% still solid mark after 12 occurences.

- Also keep in mind the Wild Card team has gone 3-4 as dogs in game 1 of late so at nearly a 50% win mark, getting plus money, it might not be a bad idea to play the Wild Card as a dog in game 1.

My picks for Game 1 ALDS:

2 units/$200 Tampa Bay +160

2 units/$200 Rays/Rangers Over 8

4 units/$400 Tigers/Yankees Under 7

The Platinum Standard in Handicapping
Free September Platinum Selections