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Virginia/ Miami Over 116.5: I see this line rising buy game time, so I will grab it now. Virginia was mired in many low scoring games earlier in the year, but now that their offense has come to life their games have been higher scoring of late. Virginia has average 74.4 ppg in their last 5 games and those games have averaged 139.2 ppg. Cav's road games have averaged 128.4 ppg and their defense has struggled away from home, allowing 64.6 ppg on 46.3% shooting. They have also allowed 38.2% from long range away from home, and Miami hits 42.4% from downtown at home. The Miami offense did struggle in their last game vs Clemson, but they are back home for this one, where they have averaged 75.5 ppg overall, including 80 ppg in their last 4 games at home. Miami home games have averaged 132.8 ppg, while their last 4 ACC home games have put up 135.3 ppg. I would not at all be surprised to see 135+ points scored in this one, but I will call this one to played in the 120's.
3 UNIT PLAYS
North Carolina -3.5 over GEORGIA TECH: I know at the end of the day I will be kicking myself for not making this play higher rated, but because it looks so easy to me, I will play it safe and make it a 3 unit play. The Heels have struggled on the road this year, but they still have been playing much better and I feel that down the stretch they will start to dominate teams like they know how to. When you put up 91 points on a Virginia defense you know your doing something right. Carolina's last 3 road losses were to Duke, Miami and NC State and there is no shame in that, as those teams are all very tough. Carolina's 2 ACC road wins this year were vs FSU and Boston College and Tech is more in the class of those teams. Georgia Tech has alternated wins and losses for a couple of wees and they are off a win, so this is a loss spot. they lost to Carolina by 16 earlier in the year and I feel the Tar Heels are a better now then at that point in the season and they should win this one by nearly DD.
LSU +8 Over TENNESSEE: Nice letdown spot here for the Vols as they are off a 30 point win over Kentucky. LSU has been playing much better of late as they have won 6 of their last 8 games and while both losses were on the road they were by a combined 8 points. LSU is just 2-5 in their alst 7 road games and just one of those loses have been by more than 8, and that was a 9 point loss at Georgia. This team is in just about every game they have played within the SEC and they should be able to keep this one close vs a Tennessee squad that may be just a bit flat.
3 TEAM 8 POINT TEASER--- VCU +11, Virginia +15 & North Carolina +4.5
3-1 last 2 days, 0-1 yesterday, Winning week last week, 6 of 8 winning weeks, and winning month in January and we are working towards another winning month this week. Let's Roll.
4-Unit Play. #519. Take LSU +8 over Tennessee (Wednesday @ 7pm est)
4-Unit Play. #552. Take San Diego State -11.5 over Wyoming (Wednesday @ 10pm est).
4-Unit Play. #542. Take St. Louis -3 over VCU (Wednesday @ 9pm est).
LSU will be up for this game against Tennessee. And in a game totaling 133 points roughly, grabbing 8 points is a decent idea here. LSU had 18 wins last year and had a very young team that lost in overtime to Tennessee 74-69 and this is a revenge game for LSU from that contest. LSU has started to play better basketball as well as after starting the year 0-4, they have now moved up to 6-6 in conference play going on a 6-2 conference run. This team is making some waves in conference play and though they might not be going to the NCAA Tournament unless they win their conference, they are certainly making a case for a postseason bit currently. The benchmark game for LSU for this contest is a tight 2 point loss to Alabama earlier this year on the road and Tennessee plays similar to Alabama in that way. LSU is a good rebounding team and does have size that could give the Vols some trouble and with the Vols coming off a monster win against Kentucky I expect them to possibly have a let down here. Look for a low scoring contest here as this game reminds me a lot of the Marist +7.5 against Rider game and should be tight most of the way through. The San Diego State team is better than Wyoming but that did not show in their last meeting as they lost 58-45. For a team that is as talented as San Diego State to score 45 points is a surprise. Now, Wyoming goes on the road and a good benchmark for this game is Wyoming's loss to Colorado State 65-46. This is a San Diego State team that comes off back to back losses against UNLV and Colorado State by a combined total of 8 points and they are hungry for a big home win and with revenge to boot. Look for them to bounce-back here at home. Finally, as good as Coach Smart and VCU are, they struggle a bit more on the road. They face a St. Louis team that has a knack for getting up for big games. This is a team that is definitely heading into the tournament having beat Butler at home 75-58, beating Dayton at home by 29, winning their last 6 conference games and playing a VCU team that does not have a road win against a top 100 team. This is a vulnerable spot for VCU and a tough game for them in many aspects. VCU is still a young team and with St. Louis sporting several juniors and seniors, I'll take the senior laden team at home here.