endymion Posts:391 Followers:18
On 02/07/2013 12:17 PM in NCAA Basketball

Small dogs ML experiment (Feb 7th)

Canisius vs. Manhattan, 02/07/2013 19:00
Manhattan +105

Elon vs. Wofford, 02/07/2013 19:00
Wofford +115

Western Kentucky vs. North Texas, 02/07/2013 20:00
Western Kentucky +115

Niagara vs. Rider, 02/07/2013 19:30
Rider +125

Missouri vs. Texas A&M, 02/07/2013 21:00
Texas A&M +135

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endymion Posts:391 Followers:18
02/08/2013 03:40 AM

5-0 on Thursday after the 7-0 on Wednesday - I told you it was sustainable :)

bobalou Posts:5408 Followers:148
02/08/2013 04:07 AM

Congrats - hope it continues to roll for you!

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endymion Posts:391 Followers:18
02/08/2013 04:30 AM

I'm sure it will stop as soon as I start actually betting them :)

finance Posts:9379 Followers:232
02/08/2013 07:20 AM

Yeah doesn't it always work that way when you're trying to test something? For some reason it's always during a good or bad aberration and then reverts to the real world...lol...good luck!

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endymion Posts:391 Followers:18
02/08/2013 10:02 AM

Indeed, and I know better than to make any conclusions before at least 300-400 bets but the gambler inside me still cried a little both days.

Here's the recap:

Tuesday Feb 5th: 1-2 (-0.75)

Wednesday Feb 6th: 7-0 (+7.95)

Thursday Feb 7th: 5-0 (+5.95)

Total: 13-2 (+13.15)

The experiment continues tonight if I can find suitable games.

btb Posts:2279 Followers:163
02/08/2013 10:38 AM

What are the requirements for each team ML value of and does it matter if they are away or home?

  • All Time Record: 277-300-7
endymion Posts:391 Followers:18
02/08/2013 10:48 AM

I use several factors in the NBA:

1) home vs away - obviously home is better
2) head-to-head results of both teams
3) overall records of both teams
4) talent and how the teams matchup with each other
5) injuries
6) rest

In the NCAAB, I don't follow the league much so I mostly rely on picks by other good cappers on the site, the blog and just looking at the matchups here at the site.

Basically, I'm looking for matchups where either the visiting team is better but the home team (as an underdog)'s more rested or simply matches up well against that particular team, or the teams are of equal value/rest/injuries situation but the visiting team's an underdog because of the home factor. I'm trying to find a situation where I expect the underdog to be able to win about half the time, and by taking the ML for +110 to +130 I think I could find some value.

I'll post 2 examples: of a game I would play and a game I wouldn't play in a separate post.

  • 02/08/2013 10:55 AM

    Cool thanks!

    • All Time Record: 277-300-7
endymion Posts:391 Followers:18
02/08/2013 10:56 AM

Here's a game I wouldn't play:

Tonight GS are +3 visiting Memphis (+130 ML). However, I think they're overvalued:

GS are 0-5 straight up against Memphis on the road. Memphis lost some traction after the Rudy Gay trade but they can still play defense and they'll be looking to rebound tonight against a shaky GS team that also comes off 2 big losses @ Hou and @ OKC. Both teams have no major injuries (Jarett Jack is questionable for GS) and are in similar rest situations. Overall, I think I'll even take Memphis @ -3.

  • 02/08/2013 11:01 AM

    And the line now changed to +3.5 so it's already outside the range I'm looking for (1.5 to 3 point underdogs)

  • 02/08/2013 11:04 AM

    Brooklyn went from -1 to +1 though so if it reaches +1.5 or +2 I might give the ML a try

endymion Posts:391 Followers:18
02/09/2013 07:12 AM

0-2 (-2) last night

Total: 13-4 (+11.15)