cnotes Posts:32918 Followers:38
02/27/2013 06:42 PM


Wednesday, February 27

Searching for Cinderella: What to look for in NCAA upsets

In less than a month, college basketball bettors will be enthralled by a handful of Cinderella teams making improbable runs in the NCAA tournament. By that time though, it will be too late to cash in on those surprise squads.

Bettors will look back to February for signs of those teams turning the corner as contenders and wonder, “Why didn’t I see that coming?”

If you would rather be the guy saying “I told you so” and making money on those underdog runs, now is the time to start sizing up possible Cinderella teams. They can come from small mid-major leagues, like VCU in 2011 or Butler in 2010-11, or could be under our nose the entire year in a major conference, like UConn in 2011.

We asked some of sports betting's sharpest minds what they look for when trying the glass slipper on a potential Cinderella team as the schedule moves toward March:

Non-conference success

Probable Cinderella teams can show their true colors as early as November by putting together a strong effort against non-conference foes. Many programs load up on major-conference competition in order to jack their RPI and strength of schedule, giving bettors an idea of how they’ll react against tougher and unknown opponents.

“Teams playing in poor conferences that played a meaningless non-conference schedule likely will not come close to getting out of the first round,” says Covers Expert Matt Fargo, who instead points to teams like Long Beach State, South Dakota State, and Robert Morris as potential Cinderella’s thanks to their stout non-conference calendar.

Experience and chemistry

Whether it be a roster packed with upperclassmen or past tournament success, experience is worth its weight in gold come March – especially when taking on some of the younger major-conference squads.

Pro handicapper Teddy Covers is keeping a close eye on Middle Tennessee State out of the Sun Belt Conference. The Blue Raiders returned eight key players from a team that went deep into the NIT last season, missing out on the NCAA due to an upset loss in the conference tournament.

“You want to make some money in the tournament – and even in the Sun Belt tournament – bet on that team,” Teddy says of MTSU. “They are really, really good and completely off the radar. They’re smart, know how to win on the road, and rebound very well.”

Robert Ferringo of Doc’s Sports looks for mismatches in cohesion come March. While some of the top teams may be loaded in pro-groomed freshman talent, they haven’t played together long. Some smaller programs have had the same core for three or four years, owning the edge in chemistry and experience.

“Put them up against an overrated or over-seeded team or just a team that isn't motivated or isn't taking the mid-major seriously, and you get that first upset,” say Ferringo. “Once that happens, the momentum gets going and anything can happen.”


When talking to experts about what stands out most for potential Cinderellas, defense is the one attribute that comes up over and over again. All of them would take a lockdown defense over a potent offense any day of the week during March Madness.

“I like teams that are battle tested and can play a stingy brand of defense,” says Covers Expert Sean Murphy. “For an underdog to go deep it has to be able to frustrate its superior opponents. Explosive, high-scoring teams are great, but what happens when they go cold? Scrappy teams that can win games played in the 50s and 60s are the ones I look to back in an underdog role throughout the tournament.”

One of the names being brought up is Stephen F. Austin out of the Southland Conference. The Lumberjacks rank tops in the country in points allowed (50.9), limiting opponents to just 37.3 percent shooting, including 27.4 percent from beyond the arc. They aren’t just building those stats versus weak opponents either. Stephen F. Austin has wins over Tulsa, San Diego, Oklahoma and Long Beach State.


As Connecticut proved a couple years ago, the most dangerous team in the tournament is the hottest team. The Huskies shocked the Big East for the 2011 conference crown and parlayed that into an improbable NCAA run, which ended in a national championship.

Plenty of teams are rolling toward the postseason, namely Saint Louis and Georgetown, which have each won nine straight games heading into this week.

“Saint Louis is hot, including back-to-back upsets of ranked teams,” says Covers Expert Jesse Schule. “Nobody wants to play these guys right now.”

The pointspread is great way to gauge just how well a team is playing heading into and during its conference tournament. The oddsmakers’ numbers give you an idea of the expectations on a team, and whether or not they are playing above or below that bar.

“You want a team that covered the spread in all two or three of their conference tournament games,” says Ferringo. “Even if they were the overwhelming favorite to win their tournament, you still want to see them go out and lay the wood to opponents.”

Silent superstars

The NCAA tournament has made household names out of unknown ballers. There are more and more pros coming out of smaller conferences each year.

Past Cinderellas like Butler with Gordon Hayward, Davidson with Stephen Curry and Western Kentucky with Courtney Lee, have put their teams on their back come tourney time and given the favorites fits.

Nate Wolters, a 6-foot-4 guard out of South Dakota State, could be the next unknown talent to shine on the national stage.

He’s averaging 22.9 points per game – third in the country – and has the Jackrabbits in line as the next Cinderella out of the Summit League. Wolters, who scored 19 points in a near upset of Baylor in the Round of 64 last season, dropped 53 points in a win over IUPU earlier this month.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32918 Followers:38
02/27/2013 06:43 PM


Wednesday, February 27

Capping college basketball's major conference races

March wouldn't be so mad if February wasn't so frenzied, with plenty of major conference titles still up for grabs.

There are four or fewer games left on the regular season slate for most programs, which means contending teams will be going all out in the final days of the schedule.

Some will rise to the occasion, giving college basketball bettors some added value to their spreads. Others, however, may crumble under the pressure. We look at how to cap some of the tightest major conference races in college hoops:


Contending: Miami (13-1), Duke (2 games back)

What to watch for: The Hurricanes have lost their ATS magic, failing to cover in four straight including an upset loss to Wake Forest. Miami does have three of its final four coming in Coral Gables, where it is 9-1 ATS on the year.

Duke is the lone road game on the Canes’ slate. The Blue Devils have three tough games remaining out of their final four – at Virginia, Miami, at UNC – and may get Ryan Kelly back for their final two, at home to Virginia Tech and at Chapel Hill.

Big East

Contending: Georgetown (11-3), Marquette (.5 game back), Louisville (1 game back), Syracuse (1.5 games back). Notre Dame (1.5 games back)

What to watch for: Georgetown controls its own destiny but may have peaked with a win over Syracuse this weekend. The Hoyas have a dangerous game at UConn Wednesday and a rematch with Cuse in the season finale. The Orange are a sinking ship after losing to Marquette, which hosts Notre Dame this weekend.

Both the Irish and Louisville need to win out the stretch and get some help from the Hoyas and the other schools ahead of them. While a conference title may not be up for grabs in their matchup on March 9, seeding in the Big East tournament will be.

Big 12

Contending: Kansas (12-3), Kansas State (12-3), Oklahoma State 1.5 games back)

What to watch for: The final two weeks of Big 12 play will not only decide the conference champion but perhaps tag the winner with a No. 1 seed in the NCAA.

Kansas has won SU and ATS in its last five – thanks to the refs versus ISU – and should continue to cover in its final three games with Bill Self revving the engines before the conference tournament. The Wildcats could have their party spoiled by OSU in the season finale. The Cowboys are 8-4 ATS in Stillwater.

Big Ten

Contending: Indiana (12-2). Michigan State (1.5 games back), Wisconsin (2 games back), Michigan (2 games back)

What to watch for: The Hoosiers are hitting their stride at the right time, winning four in a row SU and ATS heading into their final four outings. Tom Crean won’t take his foot off the gas as IU rolls into a season finale at Michigan. The Spartans seem destined to fall, losing two in a row with games against Michigan and Wisconsin on tap.

The Badgers have been hot but the two most important games of the final stretch are away from Madison, where they are just 3-5-1 ATS on the year. The Wolverines could be the comeback kids in the Big Ten. Their two toughest games – MSU and Indiana – are at home but beware the letdown at Penn State and Purdue.


Contending: Oregon (11-4), Arizona (11-4), UCLA (.5 game back), California (1 game back)

What to watch for: Oregon has the edge over Arizona with a win against the Wildcats acting as an insurance policy. But nothing is certain for the Ducks, who play their final two games at Colorado and Utah. Arizona could present some betting value with its back against the wall. The Wildcats need to win out at USC, at UCLA and hosting Arizona State but have the talent and pedigree to pull it off.

The Bruins will put all their chips on the March 2 game versus Arizona, which could open them up to a look-ahead spot versus ASU this week and letdown spots in the final two games. Cal is the hottest team in the Pac-12, winning five in a row while going 3-1-1 ATS. The Golden Bears’ remaining games – Utah, Colorado, Stanford – all come at home with the conference race acting as fuel for Mike Montgomery’s squad.


Contending: Florida (12-2), Alabama (2 games back), Kentucky (2 games back)

What to watch for: The Gators have the SEC regular season crown in their back pocket, barring an epic collapse, but the motivation of a No. 1 NCAA seed should still push UF in the final two weeks. Florida does have two important games versus Alabama and Kentucky.

The Crimson Tide must win in Gainesville to even sniff the SEC crown, so expect an all-out effort on March 2. Following that, Bama is at Ole Miss, which stinks of letdown spot. The Wildcats have struggled on the road, boasting a 3-6 ATS mark, and have trips to Arkansas and Georgia, before a finale with Florida in Lexington.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32918 Followers:38
02/27/2013 06:45 PM

Top 25 Short Sheet

Wednesday, February 27

Michigan at Penn State, 6:30 ET BTN
Michigan: 11-3 ATS after 3 straight games with 31 or less rebounds
Penn State: 9-2 OVER on Wednesday games

Georgetown at Connecticut, 7:00 ET ESPN2
Georgetown: 11-1 ATS after 2 consecutive conference
Connecticut: 1-9 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins

Virginia Tech at Miami FL, 7:00 ET
Virginia Tech: 3-11 ATS after having lost 3 of their last 4
Miami FL: 9-1 ATS in home lined games

Oklahoma State at TCU, 7:00 ET ESPNU
Oklahoma State: 11-3 ATS after having won 4 of their last 5
TCU: 1-10 ATS after 3 consecutive conference games

South Florida at Pittsburgh, 7:00 ET
South Florida: 5-1 ATS as a road underdog of 12.5 to 18 points
Pittsburgh: 4-10 ATS as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points

St. Joseph's at St. Louis, 8:00 ET CBSS
St. Joseph's: 8-1 ATS as an underdog of 10 or more points
St. Louis: 6-22 ATS after a game where they made 20% of their 3 point shots or worse

Louisville at DePaul, 9:00 ET ESPNU
Louisville: 11-3 ATS off 2 straight wins against conference rivals
DePaul: 7-18 ATS after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7

Arizona at USC, 9:30 ET
Arizona: 25-12 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive unders
USC: 9-20 ATS after a conference game

San Diego State at New Mexico, 10:15 ET CBSS
San Diego State: 9-2 OVER when playing only their 2nd game in a week
New Mexico: 21-7 ATS against conference opponents

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32918 Followers:38
02/27/2013 06:53 PM

Wednesday, February 27

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Michigan - 6:30 PM ET Penn St. +12.5 500
Penn St. -

Buffalo - 7:00 PM ET Kent St. -6.5 500
Kent St. -

Virginia Tech - 7:00 PM ET Miami-Florida -16.5 500 POD
Miami-Florida -

Central Michigan - 7:00 PM ET Ball St. -4.5 500
Ball St. -

South Florida - 7:00 PM ET Pittsburgh -17 500
Pittsburgh -

Davidson - 7:00 PM ET Elon University +6 500
Elon University -

Delaware - 7:00 PM ET Hofstra +5.5 500
Hofstra -

Miami (OH) - 7:00 PM ET Bowling Green -7 500
Bowling Green -

Georgetown - 7:00 PM ET Georgetown -3 500
Connecticut -

Northeastern - 7:00 PM ET Northeastern +3 500 POD
Georgia St -

Oklahoma St. - 7:00 PM ET Texas Christian +16 500
Texas Christian -

William & Mary - 7:00 PM ET William & Mary -1 500
NC-Wilmington -

Akron - 7:00 PM ET Akron +3.5 500
Ohio -

George Washington - 7:00 PM ET Richmond -6.5 500
Richmond -

Western Michigan - 7:00 PM ET Western Michigan +1.5 500
Toledo -

Georgia Southern - 7:00 PM ET Georgia Southern +4 500 POD
NC-Greensboro -

Drake - 7:05 PM ET Indiana St. -7.5 500
Indiana St. -

Dayton - 7:30 PM ET Dayton +0 500
Charlotte -

Eastern Michigan - 8:00 PM ET Northern Illinois +2 500
Northern Illinois -

St. Joseph's - 8:00 PM ET Saint Louis -12 500
Saint Louis -

Arkansas - 8:00 PM ET Louisiana State -2 500
Louisiana State -

Evansville - 8:00 PM ET Evansville +11.5 500
Wichita St. -

Boston College - 8:00 PM ET Boston College +11 500
N.C. State -

Northern Iowa - 8:00 PM ET Southern Illinois +2.5 500
Southern Illinois -

Maryland - 8:00 PM ET Maryland +1 500
Georgia Tech -

UAB - 8:00 PM ET Tulane -5.5 500
Tulane -

Baylor - 8:00 PM ET Baylor -1 500
West Virginia -

Nevada - 8:00 PM ET Boise St. -9 500 POD
Boise St. -

Rice - 8:00 PM ET Southern Methodist -11.5 500
Southern Methodist -

Mississippi St. - 8:00 PM ET Kentucky -18.5 500 POD
Kentucky -

SIU - Edwardsville - 8:00 PM ET Belmont -24 500
Belmont -

Creighton - 8:05 PM ET Bradley +7.5 500
Bradley -

Missouri St. - 8:05 PM ET Illinois St. -11.5 500
Illinois St. -

Purdue - 8:36 PM ET Iowa -9.5 500
Iowa -

Houston - 9:00 PM ET Kentucky -18.5 500 POD
Texas-El Paso -

Oklahoma - 9:00 PM ET Texas +2.5 500
Texas -

Georgia - 9:00 PM ET Vanderbilt -6 500 POD
Vanderbilt -

Texas A&M - 9:00 PM ET Mississippi -8.5 500
Mississippi -

Fresno St. - 9:00 PM ET Colorado St. -15 500
Colorado St. -

Arizona - 9:30 PM ET Southern California +7 500
Southern California -

San Diego St. - 10:15 PM ET New Mexico -5.5 500
New Mexico -

St. Mary's - 11:00 PM ET Pepperdine +11.5 500
Pepperdine -

Colorado - 11:00 PM ET Stanford -3 500
Stanford -

Arizona St. - 11:30 PM ET UCLA -8 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32918 Followers:38
02/28/2013 06:43 PM

Thursday, February 28

Game Score Status Pick Amount

St. Peter's - 7:00 PM ET St. Peter's +11.5 500
Canisius -

North Carolina - 7:00 PM ET Clemson +3.5 500
Clemson - Over 134.5 500

Chattanooga - 7:00 PM ET Western Carolina -7.5 500
Western Carolina -

Samford - 7:00 PM ET Samford +3.5 500
Appalachian St. -

Drexel - 7:00 PM ET Drexel -3 500
Old Dominion - Over 128 500

Rider - 7:00 PM ET Rider +9 500
Niagara -

Ohio St. - 7:00 PM ET Ohio St. -10.5 500
Northwestern - Under 124 500

Morehead St. - 7:00 PM ET Tennessee St. -6 500
Tennessee St. -

Detroit - 7:00 PM ET Temple -6 500
Temple -

Furman - 7:05 PM ET Furman +4.5 500
Citadel -

South Dakota - 7:30 PM ET South Dakota +0 500
Indiana - Purdue -

Wofford - 7:30 PM ET Charleston -8 500
Charleston -

SE Missouri St. - 8:00 PM ET SE Missouri St. -1 500
Austin Peay -

Seattle - 8:00 PM ET Seattle +1 500
Texas State -

San Jose St. - 8:00 PM ET Texas-Arlington -11 500 POD
Texas-Arlington -

South Dakota State - 8:00 PM ET Nebraska Omaha +12 500
Nebraska Omaha -

Idaho - 8:00 PM ET Texas-San Antonio +1.5 500
Texas-San Antonio -

Tenn-Martin - 8:00 PM ET Tenn-Martin +18.5 500
Murray St. -

Arkansas St. - 8:00 PM ET North Texas +4 500
North Texas -

Utah St. - 8:00 PM ET Louisiana Tech -7 500
Louisiana Tech -

South Alabama - 8:00 PM ET Western Kentucky -5 500
Western Kentucky -

Florida International - 8:30 PM ET Louisiana-Monroe +7 500
Louisiana-Monroe -

Louisiana-Lafayette - 8:30 PM ET Louisiana-Lafayette +6 500Arkansas-Little Rock -

Middle Tennessee St. - 8:30 PM ET Middle Tennessee St. -11.5 500 POD
Troy -

Eastern Kentucky - 8:30 PM ET Eastern Kentucky -5.5 500
Tennessee Tech -

UMKC - 8:30 PM ET UMKC +13.5 500
Western Illinois -

Idaho State - 8:35 PM ET Northern Arizona -4.5 500
Northern Arizona -

San Francisco - 9:00 PM ET San Diego -2 500
San Diego -

Duke - 9:00 PM ET Virginia -1 500
Virginia - Over 129 500

Utah - 9:00 PM ET California -10 500 POD
California - Over 125 500

Missouri - 9:00 PM ET Missouri -9 500
South Carolina - Over 140.5 500

Northern Colorado - 9:05 PM ET Eastern Washington -1.5 500Eastern Washington -

Montana St. - 9:05 PM ET Southern Utah -5 500
Southern Utah -

Cal Poly SLO - 10:05 PM ET CSU Northridge -2.5 500
CSU Northridge -

Weber St. - 10:05 PM ET Sacramento State +8 500
Sacramento State -

North Dakota - 10:35 PM ET Portland St. -3 500
Portland St. -

Loyola Marymount - 11:00 PM ET Santa Clara -14 500
Santa Clara -

UC Davis - 11:00 PM ET UC Davis -3.5 500
UC Riverside -

Oregon St. - 11:00 PM ET Oregon St. +10 500
Oregon - Under 142.5 500

Gonzaga - 11:00 PM ET Gonzaga -5 500 POD
Brigham Young - Under 145 500

Pacific - 11:05 PM ET Cal St. Fullerton +1 500
Cal St. Fullerton -

UC Santa Barbara - 11:59 PM ET Hawaii -8.5 500 POD
Hawaii -

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: