cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
09/30/2011 07:37 PM

Green Bay Packers Host Broncos At Lambeau

Lambeau Field is the site for the battle on the Week 4 NFL odds slate between the Green Bay Packers and the Denver Broncos. These two teams that are heading in opposite directions are set to square off in Cheesehead Country on Sunday at 4:15 p.m. (ET), and there will be regional television coverage on CBS.

The Packers (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) are one of the three teams that enter this week undefeated, and if things don't go so well for the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions in the 1:00 p.m. (ET) games, they will be the last perfect team standing.

There are definitely some concerns in Green Bay right now in spite of the fact that the defending Super Bowl champions are 3-0.

Defensively, Dom Capers' unit has to be raising eyebrows. Over the past several seasons, he has had a Top 10 defense in this league, and this was the unit that truly excelled when times were tough with offensive injuries last year. This season though, the Packers rank No. 29 overall at an alarming 414.3 YPG, and the end result has been 24.7 PPG allowed.

All three foes have scored at least 17 points on Green Bay, a number which it only allowed 10 times in 20 games, including the postseason last year.

The pass defense is the real problem. A once solid looking secondary has been torched all year by opposing passing games, allowing 359.3 YPG, second to last in the league.

On the other side the ball, we probably expected better out of the Packers with Ryan Grant and Jermichael Finley healthy after missing the majority of the 2010 season. There's no shame in 403.3 YPG and 33.0 PPG, but we probably expected some more against a schedule full of teams that do not have much in the way of defense.

Help is on the way this week for the Broncos (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS). No, contrary to what the fans in the Rockies are asking for, Tim Tebow is not the man that is going to be helping this squad out, barring an injury to Kyle Orton.

The offense has been awful this year, but Knowshon Moreno is going to be back in the fold on Sunday. Willis McGahee only had 52 yards on 22 carries in last week's loss against the Tennessee Titans in Moreno's place, and you can bet that head coach John Fox is glad to have his starting running back in the lineup.

Defensively, there might be even better news. Both Champ Bailey and Elvis Dumervil have sat out back-to-back games with nagging injuries, but both are listed as probable on this week's injury report. That's fantastic news for a team that has allowed at least 17 points in all three of its games and ranks a mediocre No. 15 in the league in total defense at 334.7 YPG.

The NFL trends suggest that the Packers are the right side in this one. They are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games against teams with a losing record, while the Broncos are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games overall.

These two teams have only met twice since 1999. Green Bay took a 19-13 decision in 2007 in Denver, and stomped the Broncos 31-3 in 2003 here at Lambeau Field.

After opening up the week as a two touchdown favorite, the Packers have dipped to minus 12 1/2 but Green Bay is still the biggest favorite on the Week 4 odds. The 'total' chimes in at 46.

After some torrential rains in the Midwest over the course of the week, Mother Nature should provide Green Bay with some nice weather on Sunday. Temperatures are starting to cool down, as the possibility there that it could get down into the high-40s after the sun sets in this late afternoon game.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
09/30/2011 07:39 PM

Buccaneers, Colts In Tampa Bay On Monday Night Football

The last time the Indianapolis Colts visited Tampa Bay, they completed one of the most improbable comebacks in the history of Monday Night Football. This Monday night, the winless Colts (0-3) will just be trying to pull off an unlikely upset as double-digit road underdogs against the host Buccaneers (2-1).

Game time is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by ESPN. Tampa Bay opened as a 10-point favorite according to the Don Best odds screen, and the line has remained there while the total has dipped to 40 ½ from the opening number of 42.

It was nearly eight years ago that Indy quarterback Peyton Manning led his team back from a 28-7 deficit in the fourth quarter en route to a 38-35 overtime victory. Manning threw for 386 yards and two touchdowns in that game, but he remains out this year following his third neck surgery in 19 months.

His replacement Kerry Collins has thrown less than 100 more yards than that number (481) through three games this season and is not expected to play due to a concussion suffered in a 23-20 home loss to Pittsburgh last Sunday night. The Colts are preparing as if Curtis Painter will make his first NFL start and recently signed Dan Orlovsky to add more depth at the position.

Indianapolis has not opened the season with three straight losses since Manning’s rookie year in 1998. Painter did not help his team avoid that fate against the Steelers when he relieved Collins, as he was sacked, fumbled and had the ball returned 16 yards for a touchdown. He ended up completing 5 of 11 passes for 60 yards and has connected on 13 of 39 during his brief career.

Manning and Collins are not the only Colts hurting. They also lost middle linebacker Gary Brackett and safety Melvin Bullitt for the season with shoulder injuries.

The Bucs have won their last two games by a combined seven points after losing their season opener at home by that same margin. They are coming off a 16-13 victory against NFC South rival Atlanta and held on late after building a 10-point halftime lead.

Tampa Bay has split its two home games this season and is just 5-16 against the spread in the last 21 games at Raymond James Stadium. The team has failed to cover the last three meetings with Indy and needs to try to figure out how to get wide receiver Mike Williams more involved in the passing game. Williams has made just 10 catches this year after leading the Bucs with 964 receiving yards and 11 touchdowns last season.

Running back LeGarrette Blount has gotten progressively more carries in each game for Tampa Bay, but he could find it difficult to run on a Colts defense that held Pittsburgh’s Rashard Mendenhall to 37 yards on 18 carries. It is worth noting that Indianapolis has played better defensively in each of its past two games since getting blown out 34-7 on the road in the season opener.

The Bucs are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games against teams with a losing record.

Monday’s high temperature in Tampa is is expected to hit 84 on Monday before cooling down to 65 overnight.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
09/30/2011 07:45 PM

Week 4 Preview: Patriots at Raiders



Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: New England -3.5, Total: 56

The NFL’s best passing team (New England) will face the league’s top rushing team (Oakland) on Sunday afternoon when the 2-1 Raiders host the 2-1 Patriots.

Oakland has proven to be one of the most creative offenses in the NFL, and that’s bad news for a Patriots defense that simply hasn’t been good. New England has allowed a league-worst 469 total yards per game, and surrendered 24 second-half points in the loss in Buffalo last week. Oakland has scored 69 points the past two weeks and steamrolled the Jets for 234 rushing yards a week ago. However, it was New England rushing for 277 yards the last time these teams met (2008 in Oakland), and despite the gaudy passing numbers, still have 103 rushing YPG this year. The Patriots are 30-15 ATS on the road since 2006 and are 17-3 ATS in October games over the past five seasons. The pick here is NEW ENGLAND to win and cover.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also sides with the Patriots.

Play Against - Any team (OAKLAND) - off a home win by 10 points or more against opponent after a road game where both teams scored 24 or more points. (26-6 over the last 5 seasons.) (81.2%, +19.4 units. Rating = 3*).

The Over is 15-2 in the past two seasons when the Patriots are favored, and this rare four-star FoxSheets trend expects another high-scoring game Sunday, to finish OVER the total.

Play Over - Road teams against the total (NEW ENGLAND) - off an upset loss as a favorite, with a winning record on the season. (44-13 over the last 5 seasons.) (77.2%, +29.7 units. Rating = 4*).

Tom Brady was intercepted four times in last week’s loss, but one was deflected by his receiver, another deflected by a defensive lineman, and a third was Chad Ochocinco’s fault for running an awful route. Brady still threw for 387 yards and four TD, giving him 1,327 passing yards (442 YPG) and 11 TD in three games. WR Wes Welker gained 153 yards through the air in the loss to Buffalo, and his 458 receiving yards are 81 more than anybody else in the NFL. The offense is relatively healthy, but the defense was missing two key players last week in S Patrick Chung (thumb) and DT Albert Haynesworth (back). Both are questionable to play in Oakland.

For the Raiders to win this matchup, Darren McFadden will need another monster performance. He leads the NFL with 393 rushing yards, and his 6.4 YPC average is quite impressive. QB Jason Campbell hasn’t thrown for a lot of yards (195 per game), but he has completed 66% of his passes and only tossed one interception this year. He could also have another weapon, as WR Jacoby Ford (hamstring) is expected to return to the field after missing the past two weeks. Oakland’s defense has allowed the fifth-most yards in the NFL (410 total YPG), and the team could be without S Michael Huff, who suffered a concussion in last week’s victory.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
09/30/2011 07:47 PM

Week 4 Preview: Colts at Buccaneers



Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Tampa Bay -10, Total: 40.5

Winless Indianapolis has another difficult game on the schedule when it travels south to Tampa Bay to face the Buccaneers on Monday Night Football.

The Colts continue to limp along without Peyton Manning, scoring just one offensive touchdown in each of their three games. They could be down to their No. 3 QB, Curtis Painter, after Kerry Collins suffered a concussion on Sunday night. The Bucs got it done at home a week ago, holding on for a 16-13 win over Atlanta despite allowing 295 net passing yards. They’re just 3-6-1 ATS at home over the past two seasons. The Colts defense has been improved. They don’t allow a lot of big passing plays, and unlike in past years, they’ve held their own against the run (3.3 YPC allowed). Tampa Bay will likely win this game, but the pick here against the spread is INDIANAPOLIS to cover.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also supports the Colts.

Play On - Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (INDIANAPOLIS) - with a poor first half defense - 14 or more points per game, after a loss by 6 or less points. (58-24 since 1983.) (70.7%, +31.6 units. Rating = 3*).

Indy has not tallied more than 176 passing yards in any of its three losses, and the running game hasn’t reached 110 yards so far this year. Joseph Addai needs to touch the ball more, as he has averaged 4.8 yards per carry, but has only caught seven passes. Another player that needs to make more plays is TE Dallas Clark, who has only 10 catches for 83 yards. In his last full season in 2009, Clark caught 100 passes for 1,106 yards and 10 scores. Clark could be a great short-yardage target for the inexperienced Painter, who is just 13-of-39 for 143 yards, 0 TD and 2 INT in his career as a backup. The Colts passing defense has been subpar (252 YPG, 18th in NFL), but they have stuffed the run nicely in the past two weeks, holding the Browns to 106 yards (3.1 YPC) and the Steelers to 67 yards (2.4 YPC). They will likely still be missing LB Gary Brackett and S Melvin Bullitt, who both sat out last week’s game with shoulder injuries.

The Buccaneers defense has allowed too many passing yards (271 YPG, 10th-most in NFL), and the offense has also been subpar, with 315 total YPG (22nd in NFL) and just five offensive touchdowns. QB Josh Freeman has connected on 68 percent of his passes, but he’s tossed four interceptions with only two touchdowns. Last year’s leading receiver, Mike Williams, has been targeted 22 times, but has just 10 catches for 89 yards in the three games. The ground game was supposed to be a strength of this team, but the Bucs have only 92 YPG (20th in league). LeGarrette Blount had 24 carries against Atlanta, but gained a mere 81 yards (3.4 YPC). Defensively, Tampa did a tremendous job stuffing the Falcons running game, holding them to 30 yards on 15 carries. The Bucs look to be pretty healthy, except for S Cody Grimm (10 tackles), who suffered a major knee injury last week and is out indefinitely.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
09/30/2011 07:48 PM

Week 4 Preview: Jets at Ravens



Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Baltimore -3, Total: 42

The Ravens look to retain their recent dominance over the Jets when the two Super Bowl hopefuls clash in Baltimore on Sunday night.

The Jets have dropped six in a row SU to the Ravens (dating back to 1998) and are 1-5 ATS during that span. That includes one ugly loss in the Rex Ryan era, 10-9 at New York in last year’s opener. The Ravens have been very Jekyll and Hyde through their first three games, dominating against Pittsburgh and St. Louis, but putting together a dud in a Week 2 loss at Tennessee. This game features Ryan visiting his old haunt one week after his defense was flat-out embarrassed. The Jets allowed 234 rushing yards (the most in 41 games under Ryan) to the Raiders in a 34-24 loss. Meanwhile, the Ravens averaged 6.5 yards per carry in their win at St. Louis last week. They also showed they can throw the ball downfield with touchdowns of 74 and 41 yards. The deep passing game could take advantage against CB Antonio Cromartie, who has struggled this year and is dealing with bruised lungs. All of these factors make BALTIMORE the pick.

The FoxSheets also provide a coaching trend that favors the Ravens.

John Harbaugh is 23-12 ATS (65.7%, +9.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points as the coach of BALTIMORE. The average score was BALTIMORE 25.3, OPPONENT 14.7 - (Rating = 1*).

In addition to Cromartie, WR Santonio Holmes (quad) and QB Mark Sanchez (broken nose) are also on the injury list, but are both expected to start on Sunday night. Center Nick Mangold will likely miss another game with his ankle injury. Sanchez, in his third season, has improved greatly from last year. He has increased his completion rate from 54.8% to 63.1%, upped his YPA from 6.5 to 8.0, and his passing yardage has jumped from 206 YPG to 295 YPG. It is imperative for the Jets take the pressure off their young QB and crank up their running game, but it won’t be easy against the tough Ravens defense. After ranking fourth in the NFL with 148 rushing YPG last year, New York currently has 82 rushing YPG.

Baltimore has been very balanced offensively this year with 128 rushing YPG (8th in NFL) and 261 passing YPG (13th in league). QB Joe Flacco is coming off a huge performance in St. Louis, throwing for 389 yards and 3 TD, all to Torrey Smith. The rookie WR injured his hamstring in the fourth quarter of that game and is questionable for Sunday’s game. WR Lee Evans, who missed last game with an ankle injury, is also questionable. Flacco will have to make quick decisions on Sunday night as the Jets are expected to come after him with a variety of Rex Ryan blitzes. Both of Baltimore’s main ball carriers, Ray Rice and Ricky Williams, are averaging more than five yards per carry, and Rice has been a great safety valve catching passes out of the backfield with 14 grabs for 178 yards and two scores. The defense will be short-handed once again, as CB Domonique Foxworth and S Haruki Nakamura are both likely out with knee injuries.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
09/30/2011 07:50 PM

Week 4 Preview: Steelers at Texans



Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Houston -3.5, Total: 44.5

A pair of 2-1 teams coming off disappointing road games meet at Reliant Stadium Sunday when the Texans host the Steelers.

Pittsburgh needed a late fourth-quarter drive to edge 10.5-point underdog Indianapolis by a field goal last week, while Houston blew a nine-point lead in the final quarter and lost to New Orleans 40-33. Pittsburgh’s aging defense will be tested by a very good Houston running game, especially after the Steelers allowed 5.5 yards per rush to Baltimore and 4.6 to a sorry Indianapolis running game. The Texans’ rebuilt secondary sees an elite quarterback for a second straight week. They had early success against Drew Brees on Sunday, but couldn’t contain him in the second half as Brees finished with 370 yards and led four second-half touchdown drives. Ben Roethlisberger is 2-0 with 391 passing yards, 4 TD and 0 INT in two career wins against Houston, and will lead PITTSBURGH to another win on Sunday.

The FoxSheets shows a couple of trends backing the Steelers.

PITTSBURGH is 38-17 ATS (69.1%, +19.3 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. since 1992. The average score was PITTSBURGH 24.2, OPPONENT 19.4 - (Rating = 2*).

Play Against - Home teams (HOUSTON) - off a road loss, first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more losses in last 5 games. (84-47 since 1983.) (64.1%, +32.3 units. Rating = 2*).

Pittsburgh won in its only other trip to Reliant Stadium, crushing Houston 27-7 back in 2005. The Steelers also took the last meeting in 2008, winning 38-17 at home. Although they lead the NFL in yardage differential (+117 YPG), a league-worst minus-9 turnover margin has led to a lack of scoring. Pittsburgh is averaging only 18.0 PPG (26th in the NFL). The ground game also needs a boost. After tallying a mere 67 yards on 28 carries at Indianapolis, Pittsburgh now ranks 23rd in the NFL with 85.7 rushing YPG. Last season the Steelers averaged 120.3 rushing YPG, which ranked 11th in the league. Leading rusher Rashard Mendenhall is off to a slow start with 148 yards on 49 carries (3.0 YPC), and hopes to have OT Jonathan Scott (ankle) back in the lineup, who is listed as questionable for Sunday.

The Texans have some injuries to deal with, especially in the running game, as RBs Arian Foster (hamstring) and Derrick Ward (ankle) are still questionable. Third-stringer Ben Tate has been a great fill-in, with 301 rushing yards (fifth in NFL), but he’s also dinged up with a sore ankle. On the defensive side of the ball, it appears OLB Mario Williams and CB Kareem Jackson will both play despite suffering knee injuries in the loss to the Saints. Houston has forced two turnovers in each of its first three games, but still ranks 19th in total defense (332 YPG). The offense has moved the football well with 401 YPG (ninth in NFL) that has led to 30.0 PPG (seventh in league).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
09/30/2011 07:52 PM

Week 4 Preview: Lions at Cowboys



Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -2, Total: 46.5

The ailing Cowboys will have their hands full with a young, physical Detroit defense when the teams meet Sunday in Big D.

When they played in Dallas last November, the Lions beat up on QB Jon Kitna and held the Cowboys to 265 yards of offense. The Cowboys won in large part to a fluke play: Brian McCann took a punt that the Lions were tipping back into the field of play and returned it 97 yards for a TD. With RB Felix Jones and WR Miles Austin (among others) ailing, Dallas will likely struggle to take advantage of Detroit’s suspect secondary. And with a horrendous group of cornerbacks of its own, Dallas will struggle against the Lions’ resurgent passing game. Not only have the Lions won eight straight games dating back to last season, but they are 14-3-2 ATS (82.4%) since the start of 2010. The pick here is for DETROIT to remain unbeaten on the season.

The FoxSheets provide this three-star trend supporting the Lions.

DETROIT is 12-2 ATS (85.7%, +9.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 23.3, OPPONENT 19.3 - (Rating = 3*).

Detroit pulled off a stellar comeback last Sunday in Minnesota, as the team erased a 20-0 halftime deficit and prevailed in overtime. This marked the franchise’s largest second-half comeback. The Lions are now 3-0 for the first time since 1980. QB Matthew Stafford is off to a flying start this year. He threw for 378 yards in the victory over the Vikings, giving him 977 yards, 9 TD and just 2 INT in three games this season. WR Calvin Johnson has six of those TD grabs, with two coming in each game. Detroit’s running game has been weak this season, with just 235 yards on 84 carries (2.8 YPC). Top RB Jahvid Best suffered a bruised thigh last Sunday, but should be able to start against Dallas.

Dallas QB Tony Romo wasn’t great in Monday’s 18-16 field-goal fest win over Washington, but still led his team to the victory. Romo, who was questionable because of cracked ribs and a punctured lung, finished 22-of-36 for 255 yards, 0 TD and 1 INT. He did a good job of spreading the wealth, as five receivers caught at least three passes and nobody had more than Dez Bryant’s 63 yards. Besides K Dan Bailey, who had all of the team’s 18 points, Felix Jones was the offensive star for Dallas with 115 rushing yards on 8.2 yards per carry, and three catches for 40 more yards. Jones, who has been playing despite a separated shoulder, appeared to have re-injured that shoulder on Monday night. His status is questionable for the matchup with Detroit. CB Mike Jenkins also re-injured his shoulder on Monday, but was able to return to the game. CB Terence Newman suffered what appears to be a concussion in the fourth quarter of the Redskins game, and his status is uncertain for Sunday. DE Jason Hatcher (strained calf) is questionable.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
10/01/2011 05:20 PM


Week 4

Total Bias: NFL Week 4 over/under picks

Really, Mike Vick? Really?

You’re an NFL quarterback – a position in which you hold the football more than anyone else – and are whining because people are hitting you too hard? Really?

You signed a $100-million contract in the offseason and star for the league’s “Dream Team” and you’re going to be the guy who’s whining about the officials?

Really, Mike Vick? Really? You’re going to be Phil Jackson begging for calls now?

I didn’t want to get into this, but you’re better than this, Mike. All this garbage brings me back to the old days, the days in which you were fodder for one of my favorite SNL skits of all time.

Maybe I’m being a little hard on the guy for the public bitchfest that he put on at the podium after getting banged up in last week’s loss, but enough is enough already. Maybe every call doesn’t go his way, but he’s still a quarterback who thrives because of his threat to run the football – he’s going to get hit and he needs to suck it up.

After all he’s been through all I ever hoped was that he’d shut his mouth, play football and stay out of trouble off the field. Now, two out of three ain’t bad, but he doesn’t exactly have a long – cough – leash to work with here.

And considering the overhaul the Eagles have undergone over the past couple of months, the last thing they need is their polarizing starting quarterback giving the media sound bites.

That leads into one of the main issues I have with this “Dream Team” anyway. On paper, they look great. You can’t argue that Philly’s secondary is terrifying and there are more playmakers on offense than Andy Reid knows what to do with.

But you can’t just jam a ton of high-priced, egomaniac superstars on the same team and expect them to gel right away. Football doesn’t work that way – just ask Dan Snyder. Teams need trust, unity and chemistry.

So far it doesn’t look good. The Eagles’ Week 1 win over a Rams team that only had Steven Jackson in the game for two plays doesn’t look nearly as impressive as it originally did. Then they lost at Atlanta in Week 2 before getting the hell kicked out of them in their own backyard by a banged-up Giants club last week.

It’s a long season and all isn’t lost for this team yet by any means, but I’m not going near another Eagles bet until we have a better idea if they can rebound from this nightmare start.

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 41.5)

Another week, another low Baltimore total.

Despite the fact that the Ravens have played over the number in each of their first three games and have a completely different approach on offense than previous years, public perception of the team hasn’t changed yet.

It doesn’t hurt that they’re playing Rex Ryan and the Jets defense this week, either. Thing is, New York is slinging it around a bunch this season too and have played over in two of its last three.

Make no mistake, this one’s going to be a bar fight and there will be some haymakers thrown.

Pick: Over

New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders (+4, 54.5)

I’ve been going back and forth on this one all week, but I keep coming back to one thing: these are two of the worst defenses in the NFL. New England is giving up about 468 yards of total offense per game and Oakland isn’t far behind at 410.

After last week’s debacle in Buffalo, Tom Brady went out and got himself a spiffy new haircut, so you know he's going to be out for blood. Meanwhile, the Raiders will move the chains on the ground - that's what they do. Outside of that, I’m not sure what we’re in for but it’s going to take at least 30+ points to get out of this matchup with a win and I figure that means we’re in for an over.

Pick: Over

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-1, 39)

Kenny Britt’s injury is really going to hurt the Titans over the next few weeks. Chris Johnson continues to try to play himself into shape and Matt Hasselbeck is still trying to build chemistry with his new club.

I’m a big Nate Washington fan, though he’s obviously no Kenny Britt.

Now that teams don’t have to worry about big No. 18 galloping free on deep routes, they’ll be able to shrink the field and key-in on stopping Johnson and the receivers at the line of scrimmage.

Cleveland’s defense has really come along as well. The Browns rank third against the pass and ninth in total defense heading into this one.

Pick: Under

Last week: 1-2
Season record: 6-3

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
10/02/2011 12:02 AM


Week 4

How Week 4's injuries will impact your NFL bets

Michael Vick and Tony Romo sure can hog headlines, especially when they’re not 100 percent.

But there are many other injury situations you need to know about before placing your wagers. Not just who’s hurt or who’s coming back, but how it affects their teams.

Let’s look at three situations and how they’ll play out Sunday:

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5, 43.5)

Players usually say they’re going to play no matter how slim the chance. So it was striking to hear RB Frank Gore (ankle) admit he’s not sure he’ll be active Sunday. Even if Gore plays, his role will be limited. Backup Kendall Hunter should see a lot of snaps.

Bad news, right? Wrong. Gore has been killing his team (2.51 yards per carry) trying to play on his bad ankle. Hunter is compact, explosive and a terrific receiver, ala Ray Rice. He led the NFL in preseason rushing (6.6 yards per carry) and blew by Anthony Dixon on the depth chart.

Right now Hunter is the only San Fran back capable of exploiting Philly’s porous run defense, which allows 131 yards a game and 4.9 yards per rush.

New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals (1, 44.5)

Defensive end Justin Tuck (neck, groin) is in danger of missing the game, but he hasn’t been himself this season due to injuries. The bigger news is that DE Osi Umenyiora, recovered from knee surgery, should make his season debut.

Defensive coordinator Perry Fewell said Umenyiora has “fresh legs” and is “quick off the ball.” The combination of Umenyiora and DE Jason Pierre-Paul (12 combined sacks, hits and pressures, 10 tackles) should frighten QB Kevin Kolb.

He’s being “protected” by Levi Brown and Brandon Keith - two of the 10 worst tackles in the league, according to Pro Football Focus. Brown already has allowed two sacks plus 11 pressures and hits. Larry Fitzgerald better run very short routes.

Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers (-12.5, 46)

The Broncos are expected to get DE Elvis Dumervil (shoulder) back, which gives them a chance of pressuring Aaron Rodgers. But CB Champ Bailey (hamstring) did not go full speed in practice this week.

He said his hamstring is improving but is unsure if he’ll be able to play. If he can’t, Jonathan Wilhite will be Denver’s top corner against the league’s best receiver corps. Ouch. If Bailey tries to play hurt, Rodgers and Greg Jennings will expose him quickly.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
10/02/2011 12:03 AM


Week 4

NFL betting weather report: Week 4

October brings some chilly weather with it. Your NFL bets could get a taste of fall weather in the Week 5 of the schedule:

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-1, 38.5)

The forecast in Cleveland is calling for a 73 percent chance of rain and winds reaching speeds of up to 20 mph, blowing north across Cleveland Browns Stadium. Game-time temperatures will dip into the low 50s.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5, 43.5)

There’s a 32 percent chance of rain for Lincoln Financial Field Sunday. Game-time temperatures will be in the low 50s.

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (+4.5, 38.5)

Rain is expected to hold off until late into the second half in Seattle Sunday. There’s a 14 percent chance of showers.

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 42.5)

Baltimore is expected to get showers Sunday night, with the forecast calling for a 24 percent chance of rain and winds blowing west at speeds of up to 10 mph. Temperatures will fall into the high 40s in the second half.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: