cnotes Posts:32923 Followers:38
09/29/2011 09:42 PM

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons Need Win At Seattle

The Atlanta Falcons (1-2) and Seattle Seahawks (1-2) will meet up in Week 4 with identical records, but one team came into the 2011 NFL campaign with much higher expectations.

Sunday’s kickoff from CenturyLink Field is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. (ET) and will be televised on FOX.

Atlanta finished the 2010 regular season with the NFC’s best record, only to be knocked out of the playoffs by eventual Super Bowl champion Green Bay. The betting odds for this conference matchup are still pricing in last year’s success for the Falcons, sending them out as 4-point road favorites, while the total has been bet down from 41 to 38 ½.

Fourth-year head coach Mike Smith has compiled a 13-13 record on the road, but will be traveling to the northwest with a perfect 6-0 mark versus NFC West opponents away from the Georgia Dome. The Falcons will already be playing their third road game of the season, dropping a 16-13 contest in Tampa Bay as 1-point underdogs last week, while being handed a 30-12 defeat as slight favorites in Chicago to open the year.

Atlanta did manage to grab a 34-18 win over Seattle in last year’s meeting as 5 ½-point road favorites, as quarterback Matt Ryan completed 20-of-35 passes for 174 yards and three touchdowns with an interception.

It's imperative that the Falcons get off to a quick start to alleviate crowd noise, while also knowing that the Seahawks have allowed 43 points in the first half compared to just 10 in the second.

Bettors will find that Ryan has led the team to a 2-0 ATS record as a road favorite of 3 ½ to 7 points over the last two-plus campaigns.

Seattle picked up its first win last week with a 13-10 victory over the Arizona Cardinals as 3 ½-point home underdogs, but major questions surround the team offensively, ranking 31st in the league through three games. The Seahawks are averaging just 214.7 yards a contest, which is only a yard more than the San Francisco 49ers, a team that handed them a 33-17 road loss in the season opener.

Many fans have to be questioning the franchise’s decision to let veteran quarterback Matt Hasselbeck go, as he ranks eight in the NFL with 932 passing yards, a spot above Green Bay’s talented signal caller Aaron Rodgers. Tavaris Jackson has not been the answer under center, but in his defense, the former Minnesota Vikings backup has been sacked 14 times.

He will enter the week 19 spots behind Hasselbeck in passing yards.

Head coach Pete Carroll will likely crank up the rushing attack with Marshawn Lynch, attacking a Falcons stop unit that has allowed 248 yards on the ground the past two weeks. The former California Golden Bears star led the team in gaining 60 yards on 12 carries and a touchdown in last year’s meeting.

From a betting perspective, Seattle is completely unreliable after a win, posting a 5-18 ATS record the following week.

Weather forecasts for Sunday are expecting cloudy skies in the Seattle area and game-time temperatures in the low-60s.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32923 Followers:38
09/29/2011 09:44 PM

San Francisco 49ers Test Vick And Eagles

Quarterback Michael Vick has already proclaimed there is a 100 percent chance he will start for the Philadelphia Eagles this Sunday when they host the San Francisco 49ers. Ironically, Vick was not ready in Week 5 last year when the Eagles won 27-24 at San Francisco.

Instead, it was Kevin Kolb who started in Vick’s place due to a rib injury and led the Eagles to victory. Kolb is in Arizona now after the team dealt him to the Cardinals in the offseason, leaving Vick to deal with the aftermath of getting knocked out in each of the last two games.

Starting games has not been the problem for Vick this season – finishing them is, and that remains a major issue for Philadelphia (1-2) after losing each of the games he has left early.

Regardless, the Eagles opened as 8 ½-point favorites with some NFL betting shops raising their line to -9. Sunday's total on the Don Best odds screen is 44 ½.

Vick’s latest injury is a bruise on his non-throwing hand, and he took part in a walkthrough on Wednesday and will practice on Thursday to see if he can grip the ball under center. He suffered a concussion in Philly’s previous game, a 35-31 loss at Atlanta in Week 2.

Third-string QB Mike Kafka relieved him in both games because backup Vince Young is also less than 100 percent with a hamstring injury.

The Eagles have won the last five meetings with the 49ers (2-1) both straight up and against the spread, but they will be facing a team this year playing much better than the one that was 0-4 when they met last season. San Francisco has done most of the little things right so far under new head coach Jim Harbaugh even though his team has not been overly impressive.

The 49ers are coming off a 13-8 win at Cincinnati last week and will be traveling cross country for the second consecutive game. They were 1 ½-point underdogs against the Bengals and did nothing special offensively, as backup running back Kendall Hunter scored the game’s only touchdown with just under four minutes left in the fourth quarter.

Starting RB Frank Gore injured his ankle in the second half, and his status for Sunday is still up in the air.

San Francisco QB Alex Smith has put up progressively better numbers in each game, topping the 200-yard mark for the first time this season against Cincy. Smith threw for a season-high 309 yards last year against Philadelphia with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Two of the scores came in the fourth quarter when the 49ers' rally fell short.

Game time is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by FOX. The weather forecast for Philly calls for cool temperatures with a high of 55 under partly cloudy skies.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32923 Followers:38
09/29/2011 09:45 PM

Eli Manning And Giants On Road At Arizona Cardinals

The New York Giants (2-1) face the first of two consecutive NFC West opponents on their schedule with a road trip to Arizona to face the Cardinals (1-2) at University of Phoenix Stadium.

Kickoff is scheduled for 4:05 p.m. (ET) Sunday afternoon, and the game will be carried by FOX to the New York and Arizona areas.

The Giants opened as a two-point favorite against Arizona, with the line now as low as 1-1½ across the board. The initial total of the game was 45 and is now a half-point lower at 44½.

New York’s rushing game will be one of the biggest factors in the outcome on Sunday. The Giants have outgained the Cardinals on the ground in eight of their last nine meetings dating back to 2000.

Eli Manning is currently ranked 19th in the NFL in passing yards, with six touchdowns and two interceptions through three games.

Arizona wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald has 259 receiving yards (two touchdowns) in three games, which ranks him 14th in the NFL.

The Cardinals dual running back threat of Chris “Beanie” Wells (hamstring) and LaRod Stephens-Howling (right hand contusion) are listed as questionable for this game.

Wells and Stephens-Howling both missed last week’s game against the Seahawks, which the Cardinals lost 13-10 in Seattle.

New York’s top two defensive ends are not 100 percent going into this game. Expected to return on Sunday will be Osi Umenyiora, who is recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery and has yet to play this season. Justin Tuck is currently ailing from a groin injury and is listed as questionable as well.

Mario Manningham, one of the Giants top wideouts, missed New York’s week three victory versus the Eagles with a concussion. Manningham is currently listed as probable and the Giants should have him back to face Patrick Peterson and the rest of the Cardinals secondary.

New York’s starting free safety, Antrel Rolle, will be returning to Arizona for the first time as an opponent. Rolle played five full seasons for the Cardinals, during which he recorded 12 interceptions, four of which were returned for touchdowns.

The ‘under’ is 7-2 in the Giants and Cardinals last nine meetings.

New York is 3-2 SU in their last five meetings in Arizona and the road team is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings between these two NFC teams.

Arizona is 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a home underdog, while the Giants are only 1-4 ATS as a favorite of a field goal or less.

Early weather reports show an extremely hot and dry day for football with temperatures possibly reaching triple digits.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32923 Followers:38
09/29/2011 09:47 PM

Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest Week 3 Update

The Buffalo Bills emerged from Week 3 as the last of the unbeatens in the AFC.
It's a dog's life, or at least it was in Week 3 of the NFL betting campaign that saw 11 of the 16 games put money in the pockets of bettors taking points. Almost half of those underdog winners were outright upsets, including one of the week's biggest matchups in Buffalo.

The Bills, who closed getting seven at many shops, spotted the New England Patriots a 21-0 lead before storming back for a 34-31 victory. Rian Lindell's 28-yard boot as the clock expired provided the margin of victory, but it was four interceptions by the Pats' Tom Brady that provided the real impetus for Buffalo who emerged as the last of the unbeatens in the AFC.

There were 110 contestants in the Las Vegas Hilton SuperContest who took the opening +8 on the Bills compared to just 39 that laid the points on Bill Belichick's boys.

Another big upset, and one that proved huge to SuperContest players, was the battle in Philadelphia between the Eagles and New York Giants. That line started at 6½-points in favor of the Eagles before rising with the news that Philly QB Michael Vick would play after suffering a concussion a week earlier.

Vick injured his right hand in the fourth quarter and was relieved by Mike Kafka who would complete four of his seven passes to his own receivers, and two more to Giants defenders. Eli Manning threw four touchdowns, two of the scores in the final quarter to rally New York to a 29-16 upset.

Just 18 Hilton SuperContest players backed the Giants while 169 went down in defeat with Vick and the Eagles.

While the Big Apple's NFC entry was busy pulling off an upset, New York's AFC squad was being upset in Oakland. Darren McFadden ripped off 171 yards on the ground against the Jets' defense to help the Raiders to a 34-24 triumph.

The Black & Silver ran for over 230 yards on the day and scored all four of the day's touchdowns on the ground.

Nearly half of this season's SuperContest players took a shot in the NFC North collision between the Lions and Vikings in Minnesota. Down 20-0 at the half, the Lions battled back behind QB Matthew Stafford to force overtime with Detroit's Jason Hanson kicking the game winner less than two minutes into extra play.

That game closed with the Lions laying three, but they were -3½ in the LV Hilton SuperContest to make winners out of the 130 Vikings backers and losers for the 114 that gave the points on Detroit.

Here's a look at the latest standings.

Sans Souci 13.5

Mister P 12.0

samswins.com2 12.0

Babania 11.5
11-3-1 11.0

Razor Rob 11.0

Italian Ice 11.0

Slick 50 11.0

Iced Tea 11.0

21 tied with 10.5

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32923 Followers:38
09/29/2011 09:49 PM

Caesars Palace Sports Book Weekly Update
By: Ryan Mercier | Thursday, September 29, 2011 Todd Fuhrman, Senior Race and Sports Book Analyst at Caesars Palace, stopped by to discuss the hot topics around the NFL, college football, and Major League Baseball.

Last week was a great weekend for bookmakers with just a few exceptions in the world of football.

Fuhrman was hoping that West Virginia could have put up more of a fight in their game against the LSU Tigers but the Mountaineers were beaten 47-21. Louisiana State, tied for No. 3 on the Don Best Linemakers Poll, easily covered the spread as they were favored by six or seven points.

In the NFL, Caesars had a “banner day” according to the senior analyst even though an odd holding penalty in the game between the defending Super Bowl champion Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears set them back.

On an inventive trick return play, the Bears fooled everyone by pulling a “Kansas City Shuffle” where everyone’s attention was focused on Devin Hester but Johnny Knox caught the ball on the sideline and took it back for a TD. Chicago would have covered at +4 but instead lost by 10 after the punt return was called back for a penalty.

Most of the public was also on the Baltimore Ravens and they easily covered, shellacking the St. Louis Rams, 37-7.

Coming up this week there are many big football games but the MLB postseason is about to begin. Out of all the series, Fuhrman thinks the best underdog to look at might be the Detroit Tigers against the AL East champion New York Yankees.

The Yankees are -145 to win the series against +125 for the Tigers. For Game 1 on Friday, outstanding pitcher Justin Verlander is the underdog against CC Sabathia who is -129.

On Saturday there will be some marquee matchups in NCAA Football action going on simultaneously at 8:00 p.m. (ET).

Out of the SEC comes a matchup between the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide and the No. 12 Florida Gators. ‘Bama is currently a 3½-point favorite and money surprisingly came in on both sides with enough coming in on the Gators for the line to shift in their favor after opening as a 5-point dog. The total is at 44½.

The other big one will be a Big Ten battle when the No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers host the No. 15 Nebraska Cornhuskers at Camp Randall. Quarterback Russell Wilson and the Badgers will be facing their first big competition of the year and right now they are a 10-point favorite on the Don Best odds screen with a total of 57.

Day games in Texas will be the big focus of the NFL weekend. In an NFC matchup in Arlington, the Dallas Cowboys will host the undefeated Detroit Lions. Tony Romo and the ‘Boys are -2 at home with a total set at 46½.

Out of the AFC, the Pittsburgh Steelers come into Houston as 4-point underdogs to the Texans. The Texans are a high-scoring bunch but the Steelers ‘D’ will certainly look to slow them down and right now the total is 44½.

Finally, capping off another great NFL Sunday will be the night game war between the New York Jets and Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore opened at -4½ and that has shifted to -3 with the total moving from 40 up to 42.

On the opening game of Monday Night Football in 2010, the Ravens won a tight, low-scoring affair against the Jets, 10-9.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32923 Followers:38
09/29/2011 09:52 PM

NFL Preview Capsule: Vikings at Chiefs

September 29, 2011

OPENING LINE - Vikings by 11/2

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Minnesota 1-1-1; Kansas City 1-2

SERIES RECORD - Chiefs lead 6-4

LAST MEETING - Chiefs beat Vikings 13-10, Sept. 23, 2007

LAST WEEK - Vikings lost to Lions 26-23; Chiefs lost to Chargers 20-17





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Vikings' Jared Allen trying for sack in sixth consecutive game. He's currently second in NFL with 41/2, and comes off three-sack performance against Detroit. ... Minnesota K Ryan Longwell has connected on 14 straight field goals. His career long streak is 16. ... Chiefs have won three straight against Vikings at Arrowhead Stadium. Their lone home loss to Minnesota came in 1974. ... Len Dawson was MVP when Chiefs beat Vikings in the 1970 Super Bowl. Dawson now a color analyst for Kansas City radio broadcasts. ... Chiefs had league's best rushing offense last season. With RB Jamaal Charles out with a season-ending ACL tear, ground game has stagnated. Minnesota hasn't had same problem with Adrian Peterson running. Vikings lead league in yards rushing per carry (5.82). ... WR Dwayne Bowe caught go-ahead TD pass in fourth quarter to help Kansas City beat Minnesota 13-10 in 2007. ... Chiefs' leading rusher, Dexter McCluster, has 138 yards rushing through three games. Peterson had 120 yards rushing two weeks ago against Tampa Bay.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32923 Followers:38
09/29/2011 09:56 PM

Week 4 NFL Preview Capsules

September 29, 2011

OPENING LINE - Cowboys by 1

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Detroit 2-0-1; Dallas 1-1-1

SERIES RECORD - Cowboys lead 13-10

LAST MEETING - Cowboys beat Lions 35-19, Nov. 21, 2000

LAST WEEK - Lions beat Vikings 26-23, OT; Cowboys beat Redskins 18-16





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Detroit, Dallas and San Diego are only teams ranked in top 10 in both total offense and total defense. ... Detroit looking for first 4-0 start since 1980. ... Cowboys 8-2 at home against Lions, 1-0 at Cowboys Stadium. ... Lions have seven-game winning streak, matching longest since 1995. They have won four straight road games for first time since 1970. ... Detroit overcame 20-point halftime deficit on road to win for first time in team history last weekend. Cowboys won without scoring TD for first time in 10 years. ... Detroit QB Matthew Stafford grew up in Dallas' Highland Park neighborhood. ... Stafford only second Lions QB to throw nine TDs in first three games of season (Milt Plum, 1962). ... Dallas 18-4 in games before bye week, which is next. ... Tony Romo's Cowboys-record streak of 20 consecutive games with TD pass ended against Washington. ... Dan Bailey became third NFL rookie since 1960 to make six field goals in game, accounting for all Dallas' points against Redskins. Other rookie kickers with six packs were Garo Yepremian for Detroit in 1966, Jeff Reed for Pittsburgh in 2002. ... DeMarcus Ware has sack in every game and leads NFL with five. ... Bradie James, Cowboys' leading tackler the past six seasons, got first career tackle at Detroit on Oct. 19, 2003. ...TE Jason Witten 57 yards receiving from passing Bob Hayes (7,295) for fourth on Cowboys' career list.



RECORD VS. SPREAD - Washington 2-1, St. Louis 0-3

SERIES RECORD - Redskins lead 21-9-1

LAST MEETING - Rams beat Redskins 30-16, Sept. 26, 2010

LAST WEEK - Redskins lost to Cowboys 18-16; Rams lost to Ravens 37-7





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Both teams heading into bye week. Redskins seek first 3-1 start since 2008. Rams 2-2 after first four games last year. ... Redskins playing at Rams for second straight season. ... Redskins LB London Fletcher led Rams in tackles from 1999-2001. Redskins S Oshiomoghe Atogwe facing old team for first time. Atogwe was Rams franchise player in 2009 and played first six seasons with St. Louis. ... Rams have won three of four in series. ... Redskins have been penalized 10 times, fewest in NFL. Rams have 24 penalties. ... Redskins forced three fumbles last week against Dallas. ... Redskins TE Fred Davis tied for league lead with seven receptions of 20-plus yards and leads position with 17.3 yard average. ... RB Tim Hightower had 334 yards from scrimmage with 2 TDs in last three games against Rams. ... RB Roy Helu leads rookies with 91 yards rushing, averaging 5.7 yards. ... Rookie LB Ryan Kerrigan has two sacks. ... Rams offense has scored 3 TDs, allowed 3 TDs and held to 244 total yards last week. ... Defense allowed Ravens franchise-record 553 yards last week, with 13 plays accounting for 372 yards. ... RB Steven Jackson limited to 23 yards on four carries last week after missing Week 2 with right leg injury. Jackson has 27 100-yard games, tied with Marshall Faulk for second in franchise history. ... LB James Laurintaitis leads Rams with 23 tackles. ... WR Brandon Gibson has at least three catches in last 10 home games. ... DE Chris Long has sack in each game, and four of last five dating to 2010.


OPENING LINE - Vikings by 1 1/2

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Minnesota 1-1-1; Kansas City 1-2

SERIES RECORD - Chiefs lead 6-4

LAST MEETING - Chiefs beat Vikings 13-10, Sept. 23, 2007

LAST WEEK - Vikings lost to Lions 26-23; Chiefs lost to Chargers 20-17





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Vikings' Jared Allen trying for sack in sixth consecutive game. He's currently second in NFL with 4 1/2, and comes off three-sack performance against Detroit. ... Minnesota K Ryan Longwell has connected on 14 straight field goals. His career long streak is 16. ... Chiefs have won three straight against Vikings at Arrowhead Stadium. Their lone home loss to Minnesota came in 1974. ... Len Dawson was MVP when Chiefs beat Vikings in the 1970 Super Bowl. Dawson now a color analyst for Kansas City radio broadcasts. ... Chiefs had league's best rushing offense last season. With RB Jamaal Charles out with a season-ending ACL tear, ground game has stagnated. Minnesota hasn't had same problem with Adrian Peterson running. Vikings lead league in yards rushing per carry (5.82). ... WR Dwayne Bowe caught go-ahead TD pass in fourth quarter to help Kansas City beat Minnesota 13-10 in 2007. ... Chiefs' leading rusher, Dexter McCluster, has 138 yards rushing through three games. Peterson had 120 yards rushing two weeks ago against Tampa Bay.


OPENING LINE - Bears by 6 1/2

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Carolina 2-0-1; Chicago 1-2

SERIES RECORD - Bears lead 3-2

LAST MEETING - Bears beat Panthers 23-6, Oct. 10, 2010

LAST WEEK - Panthers beat Jaguars 16-10; Bears lost to Packers 27-17





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Carolina's Ron Rivera visits Soldier Field for first time as coach. He played nine seasons for Bears and was on 1985 championship team. Also an assistant in 1997-98 and defensive coordinator from 2004-06. ... TE Greg Olsen makes first appearance against Bears since offseason trade to Carolina. He caught go-ahead TD last week. ... No. 1 overall draft pick, Cam Newton ranks third in NFL with 1,012 yards passing behind Tom Brady and Drew Brees. Threw for 158 yards last week after tying Matthew Stafford's rookie record with 422 in opener at Arizona and trumping that with 432 against Green Bay. ... WR Steve Smith has 9,233 yards receiving and needs 23 to pass Muhsin Muhammad as Carolina's all-time leader. ... Chicago's Matt Forte ran for career-high 166 yards and two TDs at Carolina last October. Had 2 yards on nine carries last week. Forte leads all NFL running backs in receptions (186) and yards receiving (1,702) since joining the NFL in 2008. ... Jay Cutler ranks third in franchise history with six 300-yard passing games behind Bill Wade (nine) and Erik Kramer (seven) after throwing for 302 last week. ... WR Dane Sanzenbacher is Bears' first undrafted rookie free agent since WR Dennis McKinnon (four) in 1983 to record multiple TD receptions during season and first since WR Marcus Anderson in 1981 with TD catches in back-to-back games. ... DE Henry Melton tied for seventh in NFL with three sacks. ... DE Julius Peppers had interception last season at Carolina in his first game against former team. Bears signed him as free agent.


OPENING LINE - Texans by 3

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Pittsburgh 1-2; Houston 2-1

SERIES RECORD - Steelers lead 2-1

LAST MEETING - Steelers beat Texans 38-17, Sept. 7, 2008

LAST WEEK - Steelers beat Colts 23-20; Texans lost to Saints 40-33





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - QB Ben Roethlisberger needs three touchdown passes to reach 150 for career. He can record back-to-back 300-yard passing games for second time in his career. ... WR Mike Wallace has six straight 100-yard receiving games, one shy of NFL record. ... WR Hines Ward needs 16 yards receiving to pass Hall of Famer Don Maynard (11,834) for 20th all-time. ... Steelers' defense has held last two opponents under 100 yards rushing. ... LB James Farrior has sack in 11 consecutive regular-season games. ... S Troy Polamalu has 27 career interceptions, and Pittsburgh is 22-3 in games in which Polamalu picks off a pass. ... Steelers rank last in turnover margin (minus-9). ... Texans RB Arian Foster expected to start after missing last week's game in New Orleans with left hamstring strain. ... QB Matt Schaub has thrown a touchdown pass in 11 straight games. ... WR Andre Johnson is tied for third in NFL with 21 receptions and ranks fourth in receiving yards per game (105.3). ... Texans have 16 drives inside red zone, but have scored only five TDs. ... LB Brian Cushing leads team with 23 tackles. ... DE Antonio Smith has sack in all three games. ... Houston has outscored first three opponents 66-13 in first half.


OPENING LINE - Saints by 8

RECORD VS. SPREAD - New Orleans 2-1; Jacksonville 0-2-1


LAST MEETING - Saints beat Jaguars 41-24, Nov. 4, 2007

LAST WEEK - Saints beat Texans 40-33; Jaguars lost to Panthers 10-6





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Saints have scored at least 30 points in first three games for first time in team history. ... RB Darren Sproles leads NFL with 528 all-purpose yards. ... QB Drew Brees has thrown for 952 yards and eight TDs in three games against Jaguars. He completed 66 percent of his passes in those games, with no interceptions and a 113.9 rating. ... Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams returns to Jacksonville, where he held same position in 2008. ... Jaguars 8-0 at home against teams from NFC South, with three of last four games decided by seven points or less. ... Maurice Jones-Drew has at least 100 yards rushing in his last three games against NFC opponents. He also has topped century mark in three of his last four home games. ... TE Marcedes Lewis needs two TD catches to pass Reggie Williams (18) for third on club's all-time list, behind Jimmy Smith (67) and Keenan McCardell (30). ... Jaguars will be without special teams ace Montell Owens, who has sprained knee ligament. They expect to have WR Kassim Osgood (hamstring) and DE Matt Roth (neck) back after missing last week's game.



RECORD VS. SPREAD - San Francisco 2-0-1; Philadelphia 1-2

SERIES RECORD - 49ers lead 16-12-1

LAST MEETING - Eagles beat 49ers 27-24, Oct. 10, 2010

LAST WEEK - 49ers beat Bengals 13-8; Eagles lost to Giants 29-16

49ERS OFFENSE - OVERALL (32), RUSH (30), PASS (28)




STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Eagles QB Michael Vick has TD rushing in four of past five home games. ... RB LeSean McCoy leads NFC with four TDs rushing and tied for second with 5 TDs total. He also leads NFC with 345 yards rushing. ... WR DeSean Jackson averages 45.7 yards per his 27 career TDs. ... WR Jeremy Maclin had six catches for 95 yards in last meeting vs. 49ers. ... DE Trent Cole has 11 sacks in last 12 home games. ... Eagles one of four teams to rank in top 12 in total offense and defense. ... Eagles only team with three players with at least three sacks: Cole, Jason Babin and Cullen Jenkins. ... 49ers K David Akers played 12 seasons with Eagles and went to Pro Bowl five times, including last two years. ... 49ers tied for NFL lead with plus-6 turnover ratio. ... QB Alex Smith ranks second with 68.9 completion percentage. ... RB Frank Gore has two 100-yard rushing games in last three meetings vs. Philadelphia. ... WR Michael Crabtree had career-high nine catches and had first 100-yard game vs. Eagles last year. ... DE Justin Smith, who had two sacks last year vs. Eagles, will start his 159th straight game. ... Coach Jim Harbaugh's brother John was assistant for several years in Philadelphia.


Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

OPENING LINE - Browns by 1 1/2

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Tennessee 1-1-1; Cleveland 1-2

SERIES RECORD - Browns lead 33-27

LAST MEETING - Titans beat Browns 28-9, Dec. 7, 2008

LAST WEEK - Titans beat Broncos 17-14; Browns beat Dolphins 17-16





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Titans lost starting WR Kenny Britt for season last week when he tore ACL and MCL in right knee. He's scheduled for surgery. Without Britt, QB Matt Hasselbeck needs one of team's other young receivers to emerge as playmaker. ... WR Nate Washington tied for third in league with 21 receptions. ... Titans' running game stuck in neutral. Three-time Pro Bowl RB Chris Johnson held to 21 yards on 13 carries last week by Broncos, who were ranked 28th against run. Johnson, who missed training camp in a contract holdout, has 98 yards on 46 attempts in three games. He gained 136 in only previous game vs. Browns. ... Titans have lost six straight road games since winning at Jacksonville on Oct. 18. ... Titans have won four of last five in Cleveland. ... With win, Browns will be 3-1 for first time since 2001. ... Titans K Rob Bironas will play in 100th career game. ... Titans offensive coordinator Chris Palmer was Cleveland's coach in 1999-00. ... Browns first in AFC and second in NFL with 11 sacks - club's most through three games since 2000. ... QB Colt McCoy had horrid game last week before going 9 of 13 for 75 yards while directing Browns' game-winning 80-yard TD drive in final minutes. ... McCoy has been sacked three times this season, tied for second fewest in AFC. ... RB Peyton Hillis, who missed last week with strep throat, has nine TDs in nine career homes game for Browns. ... TE Benjamin Watson needs 10 yards receiving to reach 3,000 career. ... KR/WR Josh Cribbs expected to return kicks and punts after being limited by groin injury last week. ... CB Joe Haden leads Browns and league with six pass breakups. ... All eight of WR Mohamed Massaquoi's catches this season have gone for first downs.


OPENING LINE - Bills by 3

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Buffalo 2-0-1; Cincinnati 2-1

SERIES RECORD - Bills lead 15-11

LAST MEETING - Bills beat Bengals 49-31, Nov. 21, 2010

LAST WEEK - Bills beat Patriots 34-31; Bengals lost to 49ers 13-8





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Week after breaking 15-game losing streak to New England, Bills try to extend 10-game winning streak over Bengals, who haven't beaten Buffalo since 1988 AFC Championship game. ... Bills are only unbeaten team left in AFC, trying for first 4-0 start since 2008. ... Bills coming off back-to-back wins over Oakland and New England that featured huge comebacks - down 18 points against Raiders, 21 against Patriots. They're first team in NFL history to win consecutive games after trailing by 18 points or more. ... QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was Carson Palmer's backup in Cincinnati in 2007-08. In homecoming with Bills last season, he led them from 31-14 halftime deficit to 49-31 win at Paul Brown Stadium. ... WR Stevie Johnson had costly breakout game in Cincinnati last season. He was fined $5,000 for writing ``Why So Serious?'' in marker on his T-shirt, then showing it off after scoring first of his three TDs. He was poking fun at the Bengals' former receiving duo of Chad Johnson and Terrell Owens, who had dubbed themselves Batman and Robin. ... Bills are only team in league that has three players with three or more TDs - TE Scott Chandler, RB Fred Jackson and Johnson. ... Game won't be sold out, a week after Cincinnati drew 43,363 fans - its smallest crowd for a home opener in 30 years. ... RB Cedric Benson eligible to play against Bills. He had hearing Tuesday to appeal three-game suspension for offseason arrest. ... Benson needs 54 yards to reach 5,000 rushing for his career. He had 124 yards on 25 carries last year against Bills.


OPENING LINE - Giants by 3

RECORD VS. SPREAD - New York 2-1; Arizona 1-1-1

SERIES RECORD - Giants lead 80-42-2

LAST MEETING - Giants beat Cardinals 24-17, Oct. 25, 2009

LAST WEEK - Giants beat Eagles 29-16; Cardinals lost to Seahawks 13-10





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Giants have eight sacks in first three games. Jean Pierre-Paul leads way with 4 1/2, two last week against Eagles. ... Giants snapped six-game losing streak to Philadelphia. ... New York 8-7 following Monday night games since 2000. ... Win over Philadelphia was 15th fourth-quarter comeback victory for Giants QB Eli Manning. ... Manning, who had four TD passes on Monday night, needs 12 more to pass Charley Conerly for second on Giants' career list. Phil Simms has franchise record of 199. ... After allowing combined 197 yards rushing in first two games, New York gave up 177 on the ground to Philadelphia. ... Against Seattle, Arizona DE Calais Campbell had career-high 2 1/2 sacks, 10 tackles, two tackles for loss and two quarterback hits. ... TE Jeff King, who never has caught more than three TD passes in a season, already has two for Arizona. ... Cardinals TEs King and Todd Heap have 206 yards receiving. Arizona TEs had 210 yards receiving all last season. ... Cardinals have had ball and chance to win late in both losses, which have come by combined four points. ... Through three games, Arizona rookie Patrick Peterson is second in NFL, behind San Francisco's Ted Ginn Jr., in punt return yardage. But Peterson averaging 18.4 yards per return to Ginn's 13.0. ... Cardinals LB Joey Porter needs two sacks to become 26th NFL player to reach 100 for career.


OPENING LINE - Falcons by 4

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Atlanta 1-2; Seattle 1-2

SERIES RECORD - Seahawks lead 8-4

LAST MEETING - Falcons beat Seahawks 34-18, Dec. 19, 2010

LAST WEEK - Falcons lost to Buccaneers 16-13; Seahawks beat Cardinals 13-10





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Atlanta has won last two against Seattle and makes trip to Pacific Northwest for second straight season. ... Since coach Mike Smith took over before 2008 season, Atlanta 4-0 on West Coast, 6-0 against NFC West. ... Falcons lost 16-13 at Tampa Bay last week, but 13-3 under Smith coming off loss. ... QB Matt Ryan threw for career-high 330 yards last week vs. Tampa Bay, sixth 300-yard game of career and second this season. ... Ryan has been sacked 13 times this season after being sacked 23 times total in 2010. Only Seattle and Chicago have allowed more sacks. ... RB Michael Turner held to 20 yards on 11 carries vs. Tampa Bay after consecutive 100-yard games to start season. Fewest yards in game in his career with Falcons where he got more than one carry. ... DE John Abraham has three sacks and a forced fumble in two career games vs. Seattle. ... Trying to avoid first 1-3 start since 2007 when Falcons started 1-6. ... Seattle has been outscored 43-6 in first half this season. ... QB Tarvaris Jackson has yet to throw for at least 200 yards and Seattle's pass game ranks 30th in NFL. ... WR Mike Williams and TE Zach Miller have a combined 10 catches. ... WR Sidney Rice with eight catches for 109 yards in his debut last week, second-most receptions in a single-game in Rice's career. ... Seattle's defense third in league and second in NFC in third-down conversions allowed, giving up 12 of 41 through three games. ... Seahawks allowing average of 4.58 yards per play on first down, third in league. ... SS Kam Chancellor's first career interception late in fourth quarter sealed victory over Arizona.


OPENING LINE - Chargers by 9

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Miami 1-2; San Diego 0-3

SERIES RECORD - Dolphins lead 14-13

LAST MEETING - Chargers beat Dolphins 23-13, Sept. 27, 2009

LAST WEEK - Dolphins lost to Browns 17-16; Chargers beat Chiefs 20-17





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Dolphins RB Reggie Bush visits hometown for first time as pro. He was a teammate of Alex Smith at Helix High in suburban La Mesa before going to Southern California. ... Dolphins second straight winless team to visit Chargers. Last week, Bolts beat Kansas City to drop Chiefs to 0-3. ... Before '09 loss to Bolts, Dolphins won seven straight vs. San Diego dating to 1995. ... Bolts expected to be without TE Antonio Gates, who has lingering plantar fasciitis in right foot. ... San Diego SS Bob Sanders went on season-ending IR with knee injury. ... After throwing career-high 416 yards vs. Patriots, Dolphins QB Chad Henne dipped to 170 vs. Texans before rebounding with 255 at Cleveland. ... Chargers QB Philip Rivers has six interceptions and one lost fumble. ... Dolphins playing middle game of three-game road trip. ... Bolts won't be home again for five weeks. After Sunday, they play at Denver, have bye, then at New York Jets and Kansas City.


OPENING LINE - Patriots by 6

RECORD VS. SPREAD - New England 2-1; Oakland 2-0-1

SERIES RECORD - Patriots lead 16-15-1

LAST MEETING - Patriots beat Raiders 49-26, Dec. 14, 2008

LAST WEEK - Patriots lost to Bills 34-31; Raiders beat Jets 34-24





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - New England has scored at least 30 points in 11 straight games. ... Patriots are only team averaging more than 7 yards a play on offense (7.8) and only team allowing more than 7 a play on defense (7.1). ... Pats QB Tom Brady has passed for record 1,327 yards through first three games, including NFL best 22 passes that have gone at least 20 yards. ... New England RB Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis has 15 rushing TDs in his past 19 games. ... Patriots WR Wes Welker leads NFL with 31 receptions for 458 yards. ...New England CB Devin McCourty has allowed league-worst 23 catches on 37 attempts for 372 yards, according to STATS LLC. ... Oakland RB Darren McFadden is coming off career-high 171 yards rushing last week against Jets and leads lead with 393 yards rushing. ... Raiders have eight rushing TDs - twice as many as next best team. ... Raiders tops in league scoring on trips inside the 30 with 6.27 points per possession. ... Oakland has allowed one pass completion all season longer than 21 yards in the air. ... Raiders scored 34 points last week despite failing to convert any of their eight third-down attempts for third most points since at least 1991 without third-down conversion. ... Oakland has allowed two sacks all season.


OPENING LINE - Packers by 13

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Denver 1-2; Green Bay 2-1

SERIES RECORD - Tied 5-5-1

LAST MEETING - Packers beat Broncos 19-13 OT, Oct. 19, 2007

LAST WEEK - Broncos lost at Titans 17-14; Packers beat Bears 27-17





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Broncos QB Kyle Orton 3-1 against Packers. He needs four TD passes to reach 50 with Broncos. ... Since 2010, WR Brandon Lloyd has 79 first-down receptions, third-highest in NFL. Lloyd has three TD catches in past three games against NFC opponents. ... WR Eric Decker had career-high seven catches last week. Eleven of Decker's 15 catches have been for first downs this season. ... Rookie LB Von Miller, No. 2 overall pick in draft, going for third consecutive game with sack. ... S Brian Dawkins has two INTs, two forced fumbles and one fumble recovery in past five meetings against Green Bay. ... Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is 12-1 in past 13 starts at home, completing 67.5 percent of passes for 3,609 yards with 29 TDs and eight INTs. ... RB Ryan Grant rushed for 104 yards in only game against Broncos, but availability for Sunday in doubt because of bruised kidney. ... TE Jermichael Finley had career-high three TDs last week. ... In last meeting between Packers and Broncos, Green Bay WR Greg Jennings caught game-winning 82-yard TD pass from Brett Favre on first play from scrimmage in OT. ... OLB Clay Matthews has nice sacks in his past seven games against AFC opponents. S Morgan Burnett had career-high two INTs last week and has three INTs in past two games. ... DE Jarius Wynn had career-best two sacks in Packers' victory at Chicago last week. ... Packers LB A.J. Hawk is brother-in-law of Broncos QB Brady Quinn; Hawk married to Quinn's sister, Laura. ... Broncos DE Jason Hunter played for Packers for three seasons (2006-08). ... Packers K Mason Crosby and LB Brad Jones played at University of Colorado. ... Packers defensive line coach Mike Trgovac coached on Broncos coach John Fox's staff in Carolina for seven seasons (2002-08), serving as defensive coordinator for final six seasons.


OPENING LINE - Ravens by 3 1/2

RECORD VS. SPREAD - New York 1-2; Baltimore 2-1

SERIES RECORD - Ravens lead 6-1

LAST MEETING - Ravens beat Jets 10-9, Sept. 13, 2010

LAST WEEK - Jets lost to Raiders 34-24; Ravens beat Rams 37-7





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Ravens have won six straight in series, last four by total of 21 points. ... Jets coach Rex Ryan coached 10 seasons in Baltimore, Jets QB coach Matt Cavanaugh was Ravens offensive coordinator from 1999-2004, and Jets LB Bart Scott, S Jim Leonhard and WR Derrick Mason all played for Ravens. ... New York ranked 31st against run after yielding 234 yards on ground in loss to Oakland last week. ... Jets QB Mark Sanchez has thrown two TD passes in each game this season. He's coming off career-best 369-yard performance against Raiders. ... New York's Santonio Holmes has caught TD pass in six straight games vs. Baltimore and has seven TDs against Ravens, most vs. any opponent. ... Holmes faced Ravens many times with Pittsburgh, as did teammate Plaxico Burress, who has six career TDs against Baltimore. ... Ravens LB Ray Lewis needs a half-sack to reach 40 for career. He can become first player in NFL history with 40 sacks and 30 interceptions. ... Baltimore S Ed Reed needs 20 yards on interception returns to break Rod Woodson's career record of 1,483 yards. ... Ravens 66-23 at home this decade, second-best mark behind New England (70-19). ... Baltimore WR Torrey Smith looking for encore to three-touchdown performance last week against Rams. He's first rookie in NFL history with three TD catches in first quarter of game. ... Against Rams last week, Ravens RB Ray Rice had 25th career game with 100 yards from scrimmage.


OPENING LINE - Buccaneers by 10

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Indianapolis 1-2; Tampa Bay 2-1

SERIES RECORD - Colts lead 7-4

LAST MEETING - Colts beat Buccaneers 33-14, Oct. 7, 2007

LAST WEEK - Colts lost to Steelers 23-20; Buccaneers beat Falcons 16-13





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Colts are regulars on Monday Night Football and have victories in nine of past 10 appearances. Buccaneers, on the other hand, hosting Monday night game for first time in eight years. They last played Monday night three years ago, losing to Carolina to begin four-game, season-ending slide that not only cost them a playoff berth but claimed former coach Jon Gruden's job. Gruden will be in broadcast booth for this one. ... With QB Kerry Collins still recovering after suffering concussion-like symptoms during last week's loss to Pittsburgh, Curtis Painter likely will make first NFL start. ... Colts WR Reggie Wayne closing in on 11,000 career yards receiving. He's 56 yards shy. ... Indianapolis DE Dwight Freeney had two sacks and forced a fumble against Steelers. He needs three sacks to reach 100 for career. ... Bucs hope to get RB LeGarrette Blount going against Colts defense. He carried 24 times for 81 yards against Falcons. Tampa Bay 6-1 when second-year pro carries at least 18 times. ... Bucs CB Ronde Barber has started 186 consecutive games, longest streak among active players. He took over lead when injured Colts QB Peyton Manning missed season opener. Barber had interception and recovered fumble last week against Atlanta. He's only player in NFL history with at least 40 career interceptions and 25 sacks.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32923 Followers:38
09/29/2011 11:06 PM


Week 4

NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 4

We’re through three weeks of the NFL season, and something is clearly not right. Perennial doormats Buffalo and Detroit remain undefeated – straight up, at least. Let’s see how things shape up in Week 4 with the NFL poolies' cheat sheet:

Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans (-4)

Why Steelers cover: They’re the defending AFC champs, and at some point, they should start playing like it, particularly after subpar performance against under-Manninged Colts last week. Pittsburgh has cashed last five after a non-cover and eight of last 11 getting points.

Why Texans cover: Matt Schaub’s prolific offense far better than what Steelers saw last week in 23-20 win at Indianapolis as overwhelming 10.5-point chalk.

Total (45.5): Over 23-6 in Houston’s last 29 vs. winning teams, and Pittsburgh on over runs of 6-1 overall and 4-0 on road.

Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams (-1)

Why Redskins cover: Should be smarting after blowing chance for road win Monday night in Dallas. 5-1-1 ATS last seven overall.

Why Rams cover: Not much positive going at the betting window for Sam Bradford & Co., but St. Louis has covered last four in this rivalry, and underdog is 8-2 ATS in last 10 Redskins-Rams affairs.

Total (43.5): Washington has gone low in eight of past 10.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-9)

Why 49ers cover: After beating Bengals 13-8 in scintillating game at Cincinnati, Niners smartly opt to stay in region this week, so it’ll be a short trip to Philly. Eagles 1-5 ATS last six overall, 0-4 ATS last four at home.

Why Eagles cover: Everybody’s sexy Super Bowl pick needs a performance that proves they’re worth hype, and Niners are right foe at right time. Philly 5-0 ATS last five in this rivalry.

Total (44.5): Under has hit in Eagles’ last four at home, but over is on upticks of 4-1 for Niners, 11-5 for Philly and 6-1 when these two teams get together.

Minnesota Vikings (-1) at Kansas City Chiefs

Why Vikings cover: Not much to support the Men in Purple here, particularly after blowing 20-0 lead at home to Detroit. But K.C. has covered just one of last five overall and one of last five at home.

Why Chiefs cover: Same situation – not for what Kansas City has done, but for what Minnesota hasn’t. Vikes on ATS purges of 4-9-1 overall and 4-9 on highway.

Total (39.5): Under the play in Vikes’ last five roadies.

Buffalo Bills (-3) at Cincinnati Bengals

Why Bills cover: Buffalo can score, and Cincinnati cannot. Bills averaging league-best 37.7 ppg, while Bengals average 19 ppg (25th). Cincy mustered a whopping eight points in home loss to Niners last week. Bills pasted host Cincinnati last November, 49-31.

Why Bengals cover: Bills coming off hugely emotional comeback win over Patriots, so a big letdown would be no surprise. Cincy has cashed five of last six overall and four straight as a pup.

Total (43.5): Over for Bills has hit four in a row overall and four of five on road, and total has gone high last four Buffalo-Cincy meetings.

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-1)

Why Titans cover: Road team 6-2 ATS last eight Tennessee-Cleveland contests. Browns on ATS dives of 1-5-1 overall and 0-5-1 at home.

Why Browns cover: Titans lost rising star wideout Kenny Britt (knee) for season last week, so QB Matt Hasselbeck throwing to bunch of no-names, while Britt gets more time to devote to legal issues.

Total (38): No dynamic offenses here, to be sure. Under 15-7 Browns’ last 22 as home favorite.

New Orleans Saints (-6.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Why Saints cover: Drew Brees and high-octane offense racking up 34.7 ppg, second-best in league. Jaguars are anti-Saints, with low-octane offense averaging paltry 9.7 ppg (31st). Jags 2-9 ATS last 11 vs. winning teams.

Why Jaguars cover: Saints on ATS slides of 1-9 vs. losing teams and 1-5 on highway. Sean Payton’s defense also giving up 29.3 ppg (30th).

Total (46.5): As noted above, New Orleans lights up scoreboard and is on 5-1 over run on road. That said Jags’ pathetic offense has led to 4-1 under mark in last five overall.

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-6.5)

Why Panthers cover: Rookie QB Cam Newton less of a head case than veteran Bears QB Jay Cutler. Underdog 3-0-1 ATS last four in this rivalry.

Why Bears cover: Facing team that mustered just eight points through 55 minutes vs. woeful Jacksonville last week.

Total (43.5): Chicago netted just 30 total points in losses to heavyweights New Orleans and Green Bay; finally gets to face a lightweight, so scoring should follow. Bears on over surges of 4-0 laying points and 22-10 as home chalk.

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-1)

Why Lions cover: The no-longer-cowardly Lions have won seven in a row SU and gone 6-0-1 ATS, dating to last season. And the push came in their comeback win at Minnesota last week. Cowboys in 1-6 ATS rut as home chalk.

Why Cowboys cover: Detroit’s run bound to end soon, and this is the Lions’ second straight week on the road, while Dallas is home for second straight week.

Total (46): Monday night’s game notwithstanding – Dallas won by scoring SIX field goals – Cowboys Stadium is home to lots of points. Over 9-1 in last 10 at Jerry Jones’ football Taj Mahal.

New York Giants (-1) at Arizona Cardinals

Why Giants cover: Eli Manning appears to have found form, torching vaunted Eagles secondary for four TDs last week. That added to New York’s lore as an ATS road warrior: Giants 28-13 ATS last 41 on highway.

Why Cardinals cover: They get to come home, after criss-crossing country in losses at Washington and woeful Seattle. And Arizona 7-2 ATS last nine as home pup.

Total (44.5): Over 8-2 in Cards’ last 10 at home and 15-6-1 in Giants’ last 21 NFC contests.

Atlanta Falcons (-4.5) at Seattle Seahawks

Why Falcons cover: Matt Schaub & Co., even at 1-2 SU, are playoff-caliber team. Seattle, at 1-2 SU, starts Tarvaris Jackson at QB. That about covers it. Falcons have cashed six straight vs. losing teams.

Why Seahawks cover: Not much good to say, but Seattle did win and cash vs. Arizona last week, moving to 4-1 ATS last five at home.

Total (40.5): Over 10-3-2 in Falcons’ last 15 overall and 11-3 in Seahawks’ last 14 overall.

Miami Dolphins at San Diego Chargers (-7)

Why Dolphins cover: Road is where the cash is – Fish 18-7-1 ATS last 26 roadies and 15-5-1 ATS last 21 as road ‘dog.

Why Chargers cover: At some point – and this looks like a good one – Philip Rivers-led offense should blow up. San Diego second-highest scoring team in league last year (27.6 ppg) but averaging just 21.7 this year. Winless Miami allowing 26 ppg this season and is 0-5-1 ATS last six.

Total (45): These two teams play to the under with regularity. Total has gone low in eight straight Dolphins-Chargers tilts and five in a row at San Diego.

New England Patriots (-4) at Oakland Raiders

Why Patriots cover: By doing what they do, which is score a ton of points – 34.7 per game on average this year, tied for second in league. Tom Brady threw four INTs at Buffalo last week. He might not throw four INTs rest of year. Pats have long been good road bet, at 45-22-3 ATS last 70 on the highway.

Why Raiders cover: They’ll feed ball to Darren McFadden, who torched Jets for 171 yards and two TDs last week. Brady’s offense can’t get going if it’s not on field. Oakland has cashed four in a row, all as underdog.

Total (54.5): If both offenses continue rolling, this could be scoring bonanza. Pats on over streaks of 19-7 overall, 6-1 in roadies and 15-3 within AFC. Over for Raiders on surges of 6-1 overall, 5-0 at home and 5-0 with Oakland a home pup.

Denver Broncos at Green Bay Packers (-12.5)

Why Broncos cover: Hard to make compelling case here, but we’ll try. Green Bay 4-12-2 ATS in last 18 as home chalk of more than 10 points.

Why Packers cover: QB Aaron Rodgers will have his way with Broncos unit that’s on road for second straight week. Pack 6-1 ATS last seven overall and 6-1 ATS last seven at Lambeau. Denver one of worst ATS teams in league over past few years and currently on 4-10-1 pointspread dive.

Total (46): Over has been play in six of Pack’s last seven at home and is 9-1 in Broncos’ last 10 vs. winning teams.

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5)

Why Jets cover: They got popped in mouth by Raiders, which might be nice wake-up call in time to face another stout opponent on road. Rex Ryan’s troops 13-6 ATS last 19 getting points.

Why Ravens cover: Because they own Jets, beating them six in a row SU and going 5-1 ATS in that span. Baltimore back home after two-game road swing.

Total (41.5): Both teams purport to be defensive-minded, but total has gone high in four straight for Ravens, and over for Jets on surges of 20-7 overall, 16-4-1 on road and 8-1 with New York catching points.

Indianapolis Colts at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10)

Why Colts cover: Tampa a double-digit favorite? Really? Bucs haven’t been in that role since 2008, and they’re 5-16 ATS in last 21 at home. Even without Peyton Manning, Indy showed some spark vs. Steelers, nearly knocking off defending AFC champs last week in 23-20 loss catching 10.5 points at home.

Why Buccaneers cover: Got the cash in four of last five overall and are 6-1-1 ATS last eight vs. losing teams.

Total (40.5): Indy has played to over in six of last seven on road and five of last six as a pup.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32923 Followers:38
09/29/2011 11:07 PM


Week 4

Atlanta at Seattle
The Falcons look to build on their 10-2 ATS record in their last 12 games as a favorite of 3 1/2; to 10 points. Atlanta is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Falcons favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.


Game 207-208: Detroit at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 137.714; Dallas 135.553
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 2; 49
Vegas Line: Dallas by 2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+2); Over

Game 209-210: New Orleans at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 135.382; Jacksonville 130.368
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 5; 42
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 7; 45
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+7); Under

Game 211-212: San Francisco at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 129.360; Philadelphia 139.204
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 10; 41
Vegas Line: Philadelphia 8 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-8 1/2); Under

Game 213-214: Washington at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 131.345; St. Louis 122.567
Dunkel Line: Washington by 9; 47
Vegas Line: Washington by 1; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-1); Over

Game 215-216: Tennessee at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 130.688; Cleveland 133.056
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2; 35
Vegas Line: Pick; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland; Under

Game 217-218: Buffalo at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 135.796; Cincinnati 130.271
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 5 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 3; 44
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-3); Over

Game 219-220: Minnesota at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 126.702; Kansas City 126.394
Dunkel Line: Even; 42
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+2); Over

Game 221-222: Carolina at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 123.941; Chicago 128.371
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 4 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Chicago by 7; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+7); Under

Game 223-224: Pittsburgh at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 134.189; Houston 139.445
Dunkel Line: Houston by 5 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Houston by 4; 45
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-4); Under

Game 225-226: Atlanta at Seattle (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 132.889; Seattle 124.393
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 8 1/2; 41 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 4 1/2; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-4 1/2); Over

Game 227-228: NY Giants at Arizona (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 130.443; Arizona 130.309
Dunkel Line: Even; 47
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+2); Over

Game 229-230: Miami at San Diego (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 127.148; San Diego 132.268
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 5; 42
Vegas Line: San Diego by 8; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+8); Under

Game 231-232: Denver at Green Bay (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 127.197; Green Bay 136.704
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 9 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 12 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+12 1/2); Over

Game 233-234: New England at Oakland (4:15 p.m. EST
Dunkel Ratings: New England 138.498; Oakland 137.083
Dunkel Line: New England by 1 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: New England by 4 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+4 1/2); Under

Game 235-236: NY Jets at Baltimore (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 135.403; Baltimore 141.950
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 6 1/2; 42 1/2
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-3 1/2); Over


Game 237-238: Indianapolis at Tampa Bay (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 128.500; Tampa Bay 134.900
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 6 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 10; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+10); Under

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32923 Followers:38
09/29/2011 11:08 PM

Armadillo's write-Up

Week 4

Lions (3-0) @ Cowboys (2-1)-- Detroit off to 3-0 start for first time since '80- they were down 20-0 at half last week, rallied for first win in Metrodome since '96. Three Dallas games decided by total of 8 points, as Romo has willed team to comeback wins last two weeks- they're 28th in NFL in red zone offense, as new WRs not picking up offense. Cowboys covered once in last seven games as home favorite- they've won five of last six series games, including a 35-19 win here LY- they're 7-1 in last eight pre-bye games (6-2 vs spread). Counting 4-0 end to LY, Lions have now won last seven games that counted- they've lost three of last four visits to Dallas, with losses by 10-13-16 points.

Saints (2-1) @ Jaguars (1-2)-- Offensively-challenged Jags have one TD on 24 drives in last two games, with ten 3/outs and two safeties allowed; tough for rookie QB Gabbert to match points with New Orleans squad that has 11 TDs on 33 drives, with seven on 17 drives that started outside their 20. NO is 3-6 in last nine games as road favorite. Jaguars are 6-26 on 3rd down last two games, which is why they lost field position by 12-11 yards. Jax is 9-17 vs spread in game coming off their last 27 losses- they're 4-6 in last ten as a home underdog. Home side won all four series games, with Saints losing last visit here in '03, scoring bizarre TD on multi-lateral play, then missing tying PAT at gun.

49ers (2-1) @ Eagles (1-2)-- Niners staying in Youngstown for week after 13-8 win at Cincinnati; they're 2-1 despite going 3/out 13 times on 33 drives, with no points on 16 drives that started 80+ yards from goal line- three of their five TDs came on drives of less than 50 yards. Kafka getting start for Philly, which has 2nd-worst red zone defense (6 TDs/FG on 7 drives)- they've allowed nine TDs in last two games, without forcing a FG try. Eagles are 15-10 vs spread in game after last 25 losses; 49ers are 0-5-1 in game following their last six wins. Philly turned ball over three times in each of last two games, negating excellent 20-38 rate on 3rd down conversions. Niners are 5-3-2 as single digit underdog.

Redskins (2-1) @ Rams (0-3)-- No bright spots for Rams yet; they won't be getting great crowd support after dismal effort last week. Short work week plus travel for Redskin squad smarting after tough loss in Dallas Monday; Redskins have a lot of ex-Rams, Atogwe-Carricker-Fletcher and DC Haslett, who was interim coach before StL hired Spagnuolo. St Louis outscored 96-36 in pathetic 0-3 start; they're banged-up and facing Redskin team they beat 30-16 here LY for Bradford's first career win. Hightower should get ball a lot against St Louis defense thats given up 524 rushing yards in three games. Impossible to back Rams until they show some pass defense and a little heart. Washington lost its last five pre-bye games, allowing 29.4 ppg.

Titans (2-1) @ Browns (2-1)— Cleveland defense forced eight FG tries while allowing only two TDs in last two games, but Browns allowing average of 128.7 rushing yards per game; curious to see if Titans can get running game untracked- they’ve run ball for just 51.7 ypg in first three weeks. Browns outsacked opponents 11-3 so far; three of five TDs they’ve allowed came on drives of 46 or less yards. Tennessee outscored first three foes 37-16 in second half; none of its six TD drives are less than 75 yards. Tennessee is 24-16 in last 40 games decided by 7 or less points. Browns won three of last four pre-bye games- they’ve scored seven TDs while trying only four FGs, with four TDs, four FGs in eight red zone trips. Home side won all three Titan games. Cleveland won three of last four series games, after losing first five; Titans won three of four visits here.

Bills (3-0) @ Bengals (1-2)—Underdogs are 14-1-1 vs spread in Bengals’ last 17 home games (one pick ‘em). Huge trap game for Bills, coming off rare win over Patriots, with Vick’s Eagles coming to town next week- they’ve beaten Bengals 10 times in row since losing ’88 playoff game, winning last four visits here, all by 10+ points. Buffalo is 3-0 this year but hardly dominant, trailing 21-3/21-10 at half last two weeks, but they’ve scored 13 TDs on 35 drives, rank 2nd in NFL in red zone offense (11 TDs, 3 FGs on 14 drives) and outscored foes 80-24 in second half. Bengals are 2-21 on 3rd down last two games, getting pair of FGs on two red zone trips in loss to 49ers last week. Cincy lost nine of last 11 games decided by 7 or less points; Bengals covered nine of last 12 games as home underdog.

Vikings (0-3) @ Chiefs (0-3)—Minnesota led its three games 17-7/17-0/20-0 at half, then got outscored 67-6 in second half and loss all three games; Chiefs lost their first two games 41-7/48-3, then got outgained by 123 yards last week- they’ve got 10 turnovers, only three TDs, and have worst red zone defense in league (6.64 ppd), so not lot to choose from here. Expect Peterson to get heavier workload running ball after complaining publicly Monday about his five second half carries in loss to Lions. Chiefs are just 10-36 on 3rd down, part of reason they’ve started 20 drives 80+ yards from end zone. Minnesota is 13-21-2 vs spread in last 36 games where spread was 3 or less points, 9-15-1 in last 25 games vs AFC. Chiefs are 10-20 in last 30 games decided by 7 or less points, 6-12-1 in last 19 games where was spread was 3 or less.

Panthers (1-2) @ Bears (1-2)— Bears are favored for first time this year; over last 4+ years, they’re 7-11-1 as home faves. Newton got first NFL win last week on rainy home field, as Carolina held Jaguars scoreless in second half, after being outscored 44-17 in second half of first two games. Chicago is just 11-40 on 3rd down, has gone 3/out on 19 of 38 drives, big part of why they’ve lost field position battle in all three games, by 2-10-8 yards- they’ve started 17 drives 50-79 yards from goal line, and scored just one TD/two FGs, ranking 31st (0.76 ppd) in drives from that area. Newton showed moxie down stretch in close game last week, leading team to winning score in last 5:00. Teams split six series meetings, with Bears winning 23-6 in Charlotte LY. Carolina coach Rivera is former Bear LB, so this has to be special for him.

Steelers (2-1) @ Texans (3-0)— Houston held Indy/Miami to two TDs on 22 drives in winning first two games, then fell apart late at Superdome, as Saints scored 23 points in last 10:00 of 40-33 win. Half of Texans’ eight TDs are on drives of 42 or less yards- they had one TD/four FGs in loss last week, or else they would’ve hung 40+ on Saints- they miss injured possession WR Walter (out for year). Skeptical of Steelers after dull wins over Seattle/Indy last two weeks; they only have one takeaway (-9) in three games, and only ran ball for 67 yards in narrow win at Indy last week. So far this year, Pitt has 257 rushing yards, 884 thru air- they need better balance. Over last 7+ years, Pittsburgh is 14-6 vs spread as single digit underdog, covering seven of last ten as road dog. Houston is 16-10 in last 26 games as home favorite.

Falcons (1-2) @ Seahawks (1-2)— Over last 3+ years, Falcons are 14-1-1 vs spread in game following loss; this is third road game in four weeks for Atlanta squad that already has two road losses, scoring 12-13 points (one TD on 21 road drives), getting outscored 29-6 in first half of those games; Ryan has been sacked 13 times in three games- they’ve scored only one TD with four FGs in six red zone drives on road. Seattle has three TDs, 13 3/outs on 34 drives, with only one TD, one FG on 17 drives starting 80+ yards from paydirt. Seahawks have been outscored 43-6 in first half; they’re 13-43 on 3rd down, have been outsacked 14-5. Seahawks have only had four drives get inside opponents’ 20-yard line, 2nd-lowest total in NFL (Jaguars). Atlanta is 16-3-1 vs spread in last 20 games as single digit favorite.

Giants (2-1) @ Cardinals (1-2)— Home side won all three Arizona games; Cardinals lost last two weeks by 1-3 points, converting just 6 of 23 on 3rd down. Giants are 26-16 vs spread in last 42 road games, 16-8 in last 24 as road favorite, 25-15 in game following their last 40 wins, 12-10 last 4+ years when spread was 3 or less points. Third road game in four weeks for Giant squad that looked sharp in decisive win at division rival Philly last week; they’ve got nine TDs, one FG try in three games, rank 4th in NFL in red zone offense (5.83). Redbirds rank 29th in red zone offense early this season (3.5). Arizona is 10-5 in last 15 games as home underdog, 4-7 in game following its last 11 losses, 13-10-2 in game following its last 25 wins- they’re 3-2 against the Giants since leaving NFC East.

Dolphins (0-3) @ Chargers (2-1)— San Diego lost seven of last eight games, winning 23-13 in last meeting in ’09; Chargers are playing third straight home game vs winless team, winning first two by 7-3 points- since 2003, they’re 32-21-1 as home favorite, but 0-2 this month. Rivers threw six INTs in first three games, Chargers already have -6 turnover ratio. Miami is -5 in turnovers, with only two takeaways in three games- they have two TDs on 23 drives in last two games, with two TDs, three FGs on seven red zone drives, which is terrible. Since ’05, Dolphins are 4-0 vs spread as a pre-bye underdog- they’ve got to be encouraged by 291 rushing yards in last two games, but losing in last minute in Cleveland had to sting. Chargers are 26-15 vs spread in last 41 games as single digit favorite. Dolphins are 19-13 in last 32 games as an underdog.

Broncos (1-2) @ Packers (3-0)-- Denver's three games have been decided by a total of 8 points, with Broncos losing to Oakland/at Tennessee, both by a FG. Broncos are double digit dog for just third time (1-1) in last decade- they're 10-15 as road underdog since 2007, 15-26 against spread in game following last 41 losses. Green Bay's wins are by 8-7-10 points- since '02, they're 6-3 as double digit favorite. Pack is #5 team in red zone offense (5.46), #2 in red zone defense (3.54); they've scored seven TDs on 13 drives that started 80+ yards from goal line (4.00), by far best figure in league. Broncos are 1-4-1 in Wisconsin, 0-3 in Green Bay, losing 41-6/31-3 in last two visits here. Orton played here when he was a Bear. Last eight years, Broncos are 11-20-1 when facing an NFC team.

Patriots (2-1) @ Raiders (2-1)-- Explosive Oakland (nine TDs/23 drives in last two games) looks to have best team since '02 AFC champs; they're averaging 185 rushing yards/game and would be 3-0 if they hadn't blown its 21-3 halftime lead in Buffalo two weeks ago. Since 2003, Belichick is 19-6 vs spread in game following a loss- Pats scored 38-35-31 points so far this year- they're second in NFL in drives that start 80+ yards from goal line (five TDs, FG on 15 drives). NE had 21-0 lead last week, before turning ball over four times in six drives, including killer INT in red zone that could've given them 28-7 lead just before half. Third road game in four weeks for New England, which is 27-14 in last 41 games as road favorite. Raiders are 7-5 in last dozen games as home underdog. Patriots won three of last four visits here, winning by 7-7-23 points.

Jets (2-1) @ Ravens (2-1)-- Jet coach Ryan is former Raven assistant, so lot of similarities here; Gang Green lost six of last seven vs Baltimore, losing three in row here, by 14-10-7 points (average score, 22-12). Gang Green (+3) had seven takeaways in winning first two games, none last week in loss at Oakland, when Raiders ran for 234 yards. Loss of C Magold hurts Jet offensel they became pass-happy last week (339 passing yards, 100 on ground). Ravens are a bully team, with two wins 35-7/37-7. jets won't be bullied here, this figures to be a defensive struggle, will former Raven WR Mason give Rex some insight into Baltimore offense? Average total in last three series games, 22.7. Ravens failed to cover last four pre-bye games when favored- they won defensive struggle vs Jets in LY's eeting, winning 10-9. .

Colts (0-3) @ Buccaneers (2-1)-- First visit here for Colts since wild 38-35 win in '03 Monday nighter, when Bucs led by 21 with 5:00 left. Manning-less Colts fought hard at home last week, but lost 23-20 at home to Steelers on national TV; Collins got concussion-- if he can't play, then incompetent #3 QB Painter gets nod, and this could get ugly. Bucs won last two games, by 4-3 points- they are 0-2 as double digit favorite the last 3+ years. Tampa Bay is 31st in NFL in red zone offense (three TD, five FG on 11 drives); they're 11-8-2 in their last 21 games as home favorites. Indy has only three TDs. 13 3/outs; they trailed 34-0 at half in only other road game, at Houston lost 34-7). Colts' ypa has gone down in every game, from 5.1/4.4/3.5. Harder for Freeney/Mathis to rush the passer on grass, which helps negate the Colts biggest strength.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: