cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
10/02/2011 12:04 AM


Sunday, October 2

Sunday Night Football: Jets at Ravens

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 42.5)

THE STORY: Rex Ryan is happy to tell anyone who will listen that he has the best defense – and best team, for that matter – in the NFL. The brash coach of the New York Jets will be staring at an opposing defense that is equally unwavering in that belief when his team pays a visit to the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night. The Ravens carry a swagger on defense like few other teams, and much of that is due to Ryan, who was an assistant coach and defensive coordinator with Baltimore for 10 years before taking over the Jets.

TV: NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET

LINE MOVES: The spread has remained steady at 3.5 while the total has moved from 40 to 42.5.

ABOUT THE JETS (2-1): New York suffered its first loss due to its inability to stop the run at Oakland. The Raiders gashed the Jets’ defense for 234 yards on the ground, including 171 by Darren McFadden. It was the highest rushing total allowed by the Jets since Ryan took over prior to the 2009 season. They are ranked 31st in the league against the run. QB Mark Sanchez suffered a broken nose in throwing for a career-high 369 yards, but only 19 of those went to WR Santonio Holmes. Holmes has caught a TD pass in six straight games against Baltimore.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (2-1): Baltimore’s defense almost pitched a shutout last week, and it was complemented by a record-setting offensive performance in a 37-7 dismantling of the St. Louis Rams. Joe Flacco threw for three touchdowns and a career-high 389 yards and the Ravens amassed a franchise-best 553 yards. Rookie WR Torrey Smith caught three TD passes in the first quarter alone as Baltimore bolted to a 27-0 halftime lead. Ray Rice rushed for 81 yards and had 83 yards receiving, giving him 409 yards from scrimmage in the first three games. The Ravens had five sacks and limited the Rams to 244 total yards.

WEATHER: The forecast in Baltimore is calling for a 24 percent chance of showers and winds reaching speeds up of up 10 mph. Game-time temperatures will dip into the high 40s.


1. Ravens LB Ray Lewis needs a half-sack to reach 40 for his career, which would make him the first player in league history with 40 sacks and 30 interceptions.

2. Jets RB LaDainian Tomlinson became the third player in NFL history to score 160 touchdowns, joining Jerry Rice (208) and Emmitt Smith (175).

3. Baltimore has won the last six meetings with the Jets. That includes a 10-9 win last season in which the Ravens held New York to 176 yards of offense – the lowest output under Ryan.


* Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Jets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Over is 4-0 in Ravens last four games overall.
* Over is 20-7 in Jets last 27 games overall.

PREDICTION: Ravens 20, Jets 17. The Jets will have some success exploiting Baltimore’s suspect secondary, but Flacco and Rice put up just enough points to prevail.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
10/02/2011 12:09 AM

Sunday’s betting tips: Road tests for Lions, Bills

Who’s hot

NFL: The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last six overall and 5-0 ATS in their last five against the AFC.

NFL: The Redskins are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven overall and 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.

MLB: The Cardinals are 5-0 in Chris Carpenter’s last five starts against the Phillies.

MLB: The Brewers are 15-0 in Zack Greinke’s last 15 home starts.

WNBA: The Dream are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven against the Western Conference and 4-1 ATS in their last five games as underdogs.

Who’s not

NFL: The Browns are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven overall and 0-5-1 ATS in their last six home games.

NFL: The Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six overall, 1-5 ATS in their last six against the NFC, and 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.

MLB: The over is 0-5 in Arizona’s last five road games and 0-5 in Milwaukee’s last five playoff games.

MLB: The Yankees are 0-4 in their last four overall heading into Game 1 on Saturday night.

WNBA: The under is 2-8-1 in Atlanta’s last 11 road games.

Key stat

0 – Number of rushing touchdowns scored by the Kansas City Chiefs through the first three weeks of the NFL season. The Chiefs are scoring a ridiculously bad 9.0 points per game, with three TDs to go along with three PATs and two field goals. Kansas City’s ground game—and its offense as whole—may have a tough time turning things around on Sunday against a Minnesota team that is ranked fourth in the NFL against the run (67.3 yards per game).

Injuries that shouldn’t be overlooked

Miami Dolphins’ rookie running back Daniel Thomas was ruled out Saturday for his team’s Week 4 visit to San Diego. Thomas also missed the season opener with this hamstring injury. In two games, the former Kansas State star has 41 carries for 202 yards in addition to one receiving touchdown. Steve Slaton, whom the Dolphins claimed off waivers on Wednesday, will see plenty of action.

In other running back news, the Arizona Cardinals expect Beanie Wells to be ready for Sunday’s home game against the Giants. Wells rushed for 183 yards and averaged 5.7 yards per carry before missing last week’s loss at Seattle with a hamstring problem. The Ohio State product looked good in practice on Friday and is all set to play barring a setback during **** warm-ups.

Biggest games on the slate

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-4, 43.5)

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5, 46)

Notable quotable

“I think it's really a fresh week for us. Like I said, there's nothing that we can do about what's happened. We're trying to bring a fresh, new plan, new energy. We're trying to put it together against a damn good football team.” – New England Patriots’ quarterback Tom Brady, who sounds like he could be talking about his recent haircut, but is instead alluding to a Week 3 loss at Buffalo and a Week 4 date at Oakland. Brady threw four interceptions last Sunday as New England was stunned by the Bills.

Tips and notes

Both the Lions and Bills will put their undefeated records on the line on the road during Week 4 NFL action—the Lions at Dallas and the Bills at Cincinnati. Watch out, because the Cowboys are second in the NFL against the run at 61.3 yards per game. Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson will have to keep the air assault firing on all cylinders in order to put up points. As for the Bengals, they are 1-2 but could just as easily be 3-0 and they are fourth in the NFL against the pass at 188.3 yards per game.

Desperate times call for desperate measures in St. Louis, with the Cardinals trailing Philadelphia 1-0 in the NLDS. Tony La Russa was already planning to go with Chris Carpenter for Game 2 in order to give his ace a chance to pitch twice in the best-of-five series, and now he really has to since the Cards would have to win three straight in order to end the series in four. As a result, Carpenter will be pitching on three days of rest on Sunday. How many times as he done that in his entire career? Zero.

The Minnesota Lynx are just a six-point home favorite over the Atlanta Dream for Game 1 of the WNBA Finals despite what some numbers would suggest. Minnesota and Atlanta faced each other twice during the regular season, with the Lynx cruising 96-85 at home and dominating 77-64 on the road. Furthermore, Minnesota is 17-3 at home this season, including 14-6 ATS.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
10/02/2011 12:12 AM

Week 4 NFL Betting Update And Notes
By: Jeff Grant | Saturday, October 1, 2011 Week 4 of the 2011 NFL regular season has a full schedule of 16 games ready to go before the league starts handing out bye weeks. Three franchises will be looking for their first wins of the season Sunday, including two that are currently listed as home underdogs.

The Kansas City Chiefs (+3) and St. Louis Rams (+2½) are both getting points against the Minnesota Vikings and Washington Redskins respectively, while the Miami Dolphins are 7-point road underdogs versus the San Diego Chargers.

On the injury front, New Orleans Saints wide receiver Marques Colston (broken collarbone) has been cleared to play against the Jacksonville Jaguars, as head coach Sean Payton expects him to play less than 50 snaps. The Saints were originally bet down from their opening number of eight, falling to as low as 6½, but have now been bet back up again to a touchdown or more.

Arizona Cardinals running back Beanie Wells is now officially a game-time decision, as he will test out his hamstring in warmups, which is usually the case for all players with that particular ailment.

Early movement in the New York-Arizona contest was in favor of the home team, but the Giants could receive a late rush of money towards kickoff if Wells is pronounced out of the game. He rushed for 183 yards in two games before sitting out last week’s 13-10 loss to Seattle as 3½-point road favorites.

Last year’s rushing champion has also been dealing with the same injury, but Houston Texans back Arian Foster will be in the starting lineup when the team welcomes in the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Dallas Cowboys are dealing with a pair of leg injuries at the wide receiver position. Miles Austin (hamstring) will miss a second game, while Dez Bryant (thigh) hasn’t practiced the entire week. Bettors are anticipating that the former Oklahoma State Cowboys star will play after playing through it in last week’s 18-16 win over the Redskins as 3½-point home favorites, finishing with four catches for 63 yards.

Despite the early rash of injuries this season, the league reported Friday that 130 players are currently on injured reserve compared to 142 that were labeled as such through three weeks in 2010. The media reported during the offseason that many teams were concerned about injuries due to the lockout, and the Chiefs have been hit the hardest, losing Eric Berry, Jamaal Charles and Tony Moeaki for the year.

Weather forecasts from around the league suggest that four NFL cities could be affected by rain showers over the course of the game. Cleveland leads the way with a 50 percent chance of showers throughout the contest, while Baltimore, Philadelphia and Seattle each have a slighter chance of precipitation.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
10/02/2011 12:18 AM

Gridiron Trends - Week 4

September 30, 2011


The Bills are 12-0-1 ATS ( ppg) in database history after a game where they had at least 24 first downs but trailed by double digits at halftime.


The Saints are 0-12 ATS (-12.1 ppg) since September 12, 1993 when they scored at least 10 points more than expected against an AFC team last game.


The Vikings are 0-11 OU (-8.4 ppg) since December 14, 2003 as a favorite on grass after playing at home.


The Lions are 0-13 ATS (-10.2) ppg since 2002 when they were a FG+ favorite last week, as long as they did not win by 14-plus points.


TCU is 10-0 ATS (11.3 ppg) in the regular season, when they scored 49+ points last game .


Texas Tech is 0-11 ATS (-11.9 ppg) since January 2006 when they won by a TD or less last game or lost by a point, if the total is under 73.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
10/02/2011 12:54 AM

NFL Underdogs: Week 4 pointspread picks

No one envies coaches in professional sports. You’re hired to be fired no matter how many championships you win. Just ask Terry Francona.

It doesn’t matter if you’ve got Belichick’s brain and Cowher’s chin. Ultimately, if the players aren’t on board, the organization is going to make the head coach walk the plank.

So how do the good ones keep egomaniac, millionaire athletes motivated? Where do they find bulletin board material for each game? And do they practice their shocked reaction after the Gatorade tub spills onto their shoulders, because that shit looks rehearsed.

Pittsburgh Steelers coach Mike Tomlin doesn’t strike me as the type of guy who needs to find ways to inspire his troops, but oddsmakers gave him a freebie this week when they made the Steelers 3.5-point underdogs at Houston.

The NFL likes to distance itself from the betting world, but the players and coaches know what this line means. Home field is worth three points in pro football, which means the Texans would be slight favorites against Pittsburgh on a neutral field.

That’s right, the Texans. A team that’s never had a winning season and coughed up a 9-point, fourth-quarter lead against the Saints last week is giving more than a field goal to the defending AFC champions.

Look, I get it that bettors are hesitant to back the Yellow and Black. They got their asses handed to them by the Ravens and came nowhere close to covering against the Colts. But this is the Steelers were talking about - the same club that’s won 67 percent of its regular season and playoff games under Tomlin and is 104-84-5 against the spread since 2000.

Pittsburgh is a proven commodity and Houston is still a volatile stock.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) at Houston Texans

Did you know the Steelers have 10 turnovers and one takeaway? Yeah, that’s a big part of the reason Pittsburgh’s looked so awful this season. Expect Ben Roethlisberger, who’s responsible for eight of those TOs, to take better care of the ball and the Steelers’ defense harass Matt Schaub and Co. into making some costly mistakes.

Pick: Steelers

Detroit Lions (+2.5) at Dallas Cowboys

Remember how we were all worried for Tony Romo’s insides against the Redskins last week? Well, to paraphrase Hulk Hogan, whatcha gonna do when Ndamukong Suh runs wild on you?

I think Tony Ro-Ro is in big trouble even if he’s been saying his prayers and taking his vitamins.

Pick: Lions

Carolina Panthers (+6.5) at Chicago Bears

The Bears will be the toughest test yet for super rookie Cam Newton. Chicago’s offense is uglier than Rosie O’Donnell but its defense is still as good or better than anybody else in the league.

Of course, nobody knows Chicago’s defense better than Carolina head coach Ron Rivera. The former Bears defensive coordinator knows how best to attack Lovie Smith’s Tampa-2 scheme.

Pick: Panthers

Denver Broncos (+12.5) at Green Bay Packers

It would have been nice to grab Denver at +13 or 13.5 earlier in the week but this is still a generous spread.

The Packers are coasting right now. There’s a large gulf in talent between them and their opponents every time they take the field, but they don’t step on the jugular like the Patriots. Green Bay is 0-3 ATS in its last three games as a double-digit favorite.

Denver loses this game but keeps it respectable.

Pick: Broncos

Last week: 2-1
Season record: 5-4

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
10/02/2011 12:57 AM

Where the action is: NFL Week 4 lines moves

Action throughout the week has the NFL Week 5 lines dancing like Chaz Bono. We talked to Jay Rood, sportsbook supervisor for the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, about the biggest line moves heading into Sunday:

New Orleans Saints at Jacksonville Jaguars – Open: 47, Move: 44.5

The total for this southern showdown is tumbling with money flooding in on the under. Rood believes this number could come back up a bit with public action liking to wager on the over.

“New Orleans may be a bit more conservative on the road,” he says, and Jacksonville really only has one option in Maurice Jones-Drew. The Jaguars best unit is their defensive unit.”

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns – Open: Browns -1, Move Browns +1

This spread has flipped, making Cleveland a slight underdog against Tennessee. Rood believes the move has more to do with bettors fading the Browns than liking the Titans.

“Cleveland keeps playing tough and bettors keep going against them,” he says.

Minnesota Vikings at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: Pick, Move: Chiefs +3

Rood says he’s currently dealing 2.5 for this game, but could see the line moving to -3 Vikings. With the majority of money on Minnesota, he’ll be cheering for Kansas City to come through at home Sunday.

“We’re hoping KC can pull off one of those second-half comebacks that everyone else has done against the Vikings,” he says.

Washington Redskins at St. Louis Rams – Open: Rams -2, Move Rams +2.5

One-sided money on the Redskins has flipped this spread heading into the weekend. Bettors seem to be discounting St. Louis after a poor showing against Baltimore last week. However, Rood reminds them that Washington is playing back-to-back road games after a tough loss in Dallas Monday.

“We’re going to be big on the Rams winning,” Rood says. “I think that is going to be an ongoing theme for the rest of the season.”

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks – Open: Seahawks +6.5, Move: Seahawks +4.5

Maybe it’s the Seahawks’ home-field edge or the Falcons’ poor start to the season, but sharps bought the home side earlier in the week. The public is still expecting a turnaround from Atlanta, but Rood isn’t so sure.

“Seattle is in the process of getting all the new guys to come together,” he says. “Jackson and Rice looked good last week. And they have that great home advantage.”

New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders – Open: 52.5, Move 55

Rood says one-sided money on the over is driving this tall total through the roof. New England’s high-powered offense is the biggest case for the over, but so is Oakland’s explosive rushing attack that can break big gains off with Darren McFadden. Rood may even add on a half point, just to see if he can draw money on the under.

“We have a little more room to play with when the totals are this high,” says Rood. “We can move a lot more freely than if we were dealing with a 35 or something.”

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
10/02/2011 01:01 AM

NFL Week 4's biggest betting mismatches

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (PK, 39)

Titans pass defense vs. Browns pass offense

Tennessee’s top-ranked defense (261.0 ypg) has surprised many this year. The Titans haven’t given up more than 20 points in a game and they’re pretty salty against the pass, ranking second in the league with an average of 172.0 yards allowed a game.

Cleveland is barely averaging more than 200 yards passing per outing. Colt McCoy hasn’t topped 213 yards in any game this season and has a 54.1 completion percentage.

The Browns are averaging 5.7 yards per passing attempt. Pat Shurmur wants the ball out of McCoy’s hands as quickly as possible to avoid sacks. All this adds up to Peyton Hills and Benjamin Watson being the team’s leading receivers with 10 catches apiece.

The Titans have an emerging secondary that should shine Sunday. Third-year corner Jason McCourty is coming into his own and Cortland Finnegan looks like his old self after a down season in 2010.

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5, 44)

Niners front seven vs. Eagles offensive line

The state of the Eagles offensive line has reached Code Red. Mike Vick said the only way he was coming out of a game was on a stretcher. Unfortunately, that might happen sooner than later.

San Francisco’s secondary is suspect but the team is tied for sixth in opponent completion percentage at 57.1. That speaks volumes about the pressure being generated up front.

The Niners’ eight takeaways and plus-6 turnover differential are tied for tops in the NFC. Patrick Willis and Navarro Bowman are quickly becoming the NFL’s best interior linebacker tandem and they can blitz from anywhere on the field.

Philadelphia will want to run the ball more to protect Vick. The Eagles are second in the league in rushing but the 49ers run defense has allowed just 62.7 yards per game thus far.

And don’t worry about the 49ers traveling across the country in back-to-back weeks. They spent the week in Youngstown, Ohio, adjusting to the Eastern Time zone.

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-6, 43.5)

Panthers’ motivation vs. Bears’ motivation

Turmoil is brewing again early in Chicago. There is already a sense of desperation but the motivation edge in this matchup favors the visitor.

Ron Rivera coached for the Bears under Dave Wannstedt for two seasons and then Lovie Smith from 2004-2006. He was also drafted by the Bears and played on the 1985 Super Bowl team.

“I’m not going to downplay it. People say it’s just another game. No, it’s not,” Rivera said about the matchup. “They’re all big, but this has a little personal meaning for me because it’s Chicago.”

Rivera knows Smith’s tendencies and vice versa. But since Rivera has been gone for so long he should have the advantage.

Chicago general manager Jerry Angelo, who has come under heavy scrutiny recently, traded Greg Olsen to the Panthers before the season started.

“To say this game doesn’t light your fire a little more with everything that happened would be a lie,” Olsen said.

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 42)

Shonn Greene/LaDainian Tomlinson vs. Ravens rush defense

Rex Ryan isn’t even attempting to hide the fact that the Jets won’t be able to run on Baltimore Sunday night.

“Are you going to run it against Haloti Ngata over and over and against Ray Lewis? We’ll probably have to throw it more than we want,” he said.

After saying that Shonn Greene was going to get 300-plus carries this year, New York has somehow transformed into a pass-first team. The Jets have thrown the ball 62 percent of their snaps so far, which is more than any three-game stretch since Ryan took over.

Greene and LaDainian Tomlinson have combined for 196 yards on 58 attempts this year, equating to 3.4 yards per carry. It looks like there’s a good chance rookie Colin Baxter will start at center again for Nick Mangold.

“Anytime we make you one-dimensional, then we can pretty much get after your quarterback the way we dictated," Ray Lewis said. "We really pride ourselves on stopping the run.”

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
10/02/2011 01:04 AM

Total Bias: NFL Week 4 over/under picks

Really, Mike Vick? Really?

You’re an NFL quarterback – a position in which you hold the football more than anyone else – and are whining because people are hitting you too hard? Really?

You signed a $100-million contract in the offseason and star for the league’s “Dream Team” and you’re going to be the guy who’s whining about the officials?

Really, Mike Vick? Really? You’re going to be Phil Jackson begging for calls now?

I didn’t want to get into this, but you’re better than this, Mike. All this garbage brings me back to the old days, the days in which you were fodder for one of my favorite SNL skits of all time.

Maybe I’m being a little hard on the guy for the public bitchfest that he put on at the podium after getting banged up in last week’s loss, but enough is enough already. Maybe every call doesn’t go his way, but he’s still a quarterback who thrives because of his threat to run the football – he’s going to get hit and he needs to suck it up.

After all he’s been through all I ever hoped was that he’d shut his mouth, play football and stay out of trouble off the field. Now, two out of three ain’t bad, but he doesn’t exactly have a long – cough – leash to work with here.

And considering the overhaul the Eagles have undergone over the past couple of months, the last thing they need is their polarizing starting quarterback giving the media sound bites.

That leads into one of the main issues I have with this “Dream Team” anyway. On paper, they look great. You can’t argue that Philly’s secondary is terrifying and there are more playmakers on offense than Andy Reid knows what to do with.

But you can’t just jam a ton of high-priced, egomaniac superstars on the same team and expect them to gel right away. Football doesn’t work that way – just ask Dan Snyder. Teams need trust, unity and chemistry.

So far it doesn’t look good. The Eagles’ Week 1 win over a Rams team that only had Steven Jackson in the game for two plays doesn’t look nearly as impressive as it originally did. Then they lost at Atlanta in Week 2 before getting the hell kicked out of them in their own backyard by a banged-up Giants club last week.

It’s a long season and all isn’t lost for this team yet by any means, but I’m not going near another Eagles bet until we have a better idea if they can rebound from this nightmare start.

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 41.5)

Another week, another low Baltimore total.

Despite the fact that the Ravens have played over the number in each of their first three games and have a completely different approach on offense than previous years, public perception of the team hasn’t changed yet.

It doesn’t hurt that they’re playing Rex Ryan and the Jets defense this week, either. Thing is, New York is slinging it around a bunch this season too and have played over in two of its last three.

Make no mistake, this one’s going to be a bar fight and there will be some haymakers thrown.

Pick: Over

New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders (+4, 54.5)

I’ve been going back and forth on this one all week, but I keep coming back to one thing: these are two of the worst defenses in the NFL. New England is giving up about 468 yards of total offense per game and Oakland isn’t far behind at 410.

After last week’s debacle in Buffalo, Tom Brady went out and got himself a spiffy new haircut, so you know he's going to be out for blood. Meanwhile, the Raiders will move the chains on the ground - that's what they do. Outside of that, I’m not sure what we’re in for but it’s going to take at least 30+ points to get out of this matchup with a win and I figure that means we’re in for an over.

Pick: Over

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-1, 39)

Kenny Britt’s injury is really going to hurt the Titans over the next few weeks. Chris Johnson continues to try to play himself into shape and Matt Hasselbeck is still trying to build chemistry with his new club.

I’m a big Nate Washington fan, though he’s obviously no Kenny Britt.

Now that teams don’t have to worry about big No. 18 galloping free on deep routes, they’ll be able to shrink the field and key-in on stopping Johnson and the receivers at the line of scrimmage.

Cleveland’s defense has really come along as well. The Browns rank third against the pass and ninth in total defense heading into this one.

Pick: Under

Last week: 1-2
Season record: 6-3

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
10/02/2011 01:15 AM

Top 5 NFL Trends

SEA ATL are 11-0 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

DAL DET are 8-0-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a S.U. win.

SD Under is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings.

HOU Over is 7-0 in PIT last 7 games following a S.U. win.

OAK Over is 7-0 in NE last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
10/02/2011 01:21 AM

Locks for NFL Week 4

There’s only one play that I really like this weekend. Everything else falls into the lukewarm category.

But after a 4-0 jaunt in Week 3, I’ve built a tiny bankroll and it’s burning a hole in my pocket.

But as we all know, this game is a marathon, not a sprint. We have to stay disciplined with our approach.

I’m leaning toward all of the NFC East teams this weekend, except for Philly. But I can’t get behind Washington. I like what the defense is doing but I just don’t trust Rextasy, especially on the road.

The first bet I made was Giants ML (-115). I am concerned about it being their third roadie in four weeks, and coming off a divisional win, but would be more concerned if they were laying points. To me, this spread should be at least a field goal because on a neutral field the G-Men would be 6-point chalk.

The young corners in the Desert are very beatable. And the O-line doesn’t have a prayer against the Giants’ pressure up front (good chance Osi returns). Corn on the Kolb looked awful against a mediocre Seattle defense, New York is much better.

If Justin “Tuck your panties in” doesn’t play I’m going to puke. He said if he could board the plane then he was going to play. Please don’t puss out on me like you did in Week 1.

I waited all week for the juice to drop on the Jets-Baltimore line but I think it’s bottomed-out. Fearing the hook, I went ahead and grabbed Ravens -3 (-125). I’m not risking any more on it than the first pick but this is my favorite play of the week.

The Jets just get too much respect at the sportsbook. Joe Namath often says stupid things in a drunken stupor, but his comments were spot on this week. Rex Ryan does instill the wrong kind of confidence in his players, and that brazen attitude has carried over to Gang Green backers.

New York can’t run the ball on Balty so Dirty Sanchez will be turned loose. The corners are the weak link on the Ravens defense but Sanchez isn’t good enough to fully exploit them.

The Ravens were mentally preparing for this matchup at halftime last week.

That’s all for now folks. I will most likely be adding the Cowboys ML but I’m waiting for the public to push the number back down with Lions money. I could have grabbed -120 at BookMaker on Thursday morning but wavered on my decision and it was -130 by midday. I think we’ll see it drop again before Sunday.

You’ll want to revisit the comment section below before the games go off because I will likely add a play or two.

Oh yea, sometimes I tweet something worthy of reading so check me out on Twitter.

NFL Record: 7-2-2 ($515)

-- All wagers to win $100 --

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/02/2011 10:58 AM

    NFL Late Line Moves

    October 2, 2011

    Seven of the 16 pro football games this week are road favorites with two of them finding some recent support at the betting windows of Las Vegas sports books. The Rams opened as 1-point home favorites Monday at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book for their home game against the Redskins, but as of Saturday afternoon, the Redskins are now 2.5-point favorites.
    The combination of quarterback Sam Bradford being not quite as affective as last season and bettors believing in Mike Shanahan solid program has spurred the move.

    The Vikings were short 1-point favorites and have been bet up to -3 (EV) at the Hilton with wagers placed by sharp money. The Vikings have been one of the best teams in the NFL if counting only the first half, but have been crushed in the second half in all three of their losses.

    The South Point is the only sports book in Las Vegas to use flat numbers exclusively and after a few sharp plays pushed them off the 2.5, they became the only book to have the Chiefs +3 (-110).

    "We wanted to see if there was going to be any Chiefs money at plus-3 because we we're kind of long on the Vikings and we immediately got it," said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne.

    The South Point is back to 2.5 on the Vikings.

    The number "3" has been very powerful this season. 11 games (22.9%) have landed through three weeks, a higher rate than the 15.2% average over the last five seasons. Another game getting close to 3 is Dallas for their home game against the Lions. Sharp money has pushed the Cowboys from 1-point favorites to -2.5.

    The sports books will have to test the waters at some point with Dallas at -3 and see if that is the mark that will attract Lions money. In almost every case, it does.

    Going to 3 is a major decision for the sports books and it's something they really don't want to do, but are forced to because of mounting risk on the side. Sharps will come back on the dog at +3 because of how valuable the number is, especially if it's a home dog.

    We just saw the Patriots as 9-point favorites at Buffalo last week and after losing to the Bills, the Patriots opened surprisingly low at Oakland as 4.5-point favorites. Most sports books are up to -5.5 now and it won't be long until the public helps push it off the dead number to -6. The Raiders are the only team that can say they're a perfect 3-0 against the spread this season.

    The rest of the games have been kind of ho-hum with not a lot of activity.

    The Bears are sure to go to -7, but are still currently sitting at -6.5.

    The Patriots, Packers, Eagles, Falcons and Giants are all public games that will be on the majority of everyone's parlay tickets.

    Two of the best games, Pittsburgh at Houston and the Jets at Baltimore, have received great two-way action thus far.

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 10/02/2011 11:03 AM

    Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

    Six most popular picks and six least popular picks in Hilton handicapping contest, which has 517 contestants, all of whom who pick five NFL games a week against the spread. They put up $1,500 each, so these are serious handicappers........

    6) Detroit 117

    5) Atlanta 122

    4) Washington 124

    3) Minnesota 159

    2) New England 162

    1) New Orleans 174 27) Green Bay 41

    28) Indianapolis 39

    29) Cleveland 38

    30) Seattle 33

    31) Jacksonville 27

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: