cnotes Posts:32923 Followers:38
09/29/2011 05:51 PM

No. 8 Nebraska visits No. 7 Wisconsin Saturday


Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Wisconsin -9, Total: 56.5

No. 7 Wisconsin gets its first real test of 2011 when it hosts No. 8 Nebraska on Saturday night.

The Badgers have been ridiculous, outscoring their four opponents 194 to 34 this year and ranking eighth in total offense (532 YPG) and seventh in total defense (247 YPG). Nebraska has given up more points than Bo Pelini is used to in September (22.0 PPG), but the rushing offense ranks eighth in the land (273 YPG), and the kick-return team leads the nation with a hefty 35.4-yard average. The Huskers are 10-2 SU in their past dozen road games, and 14-6 ATS in their past 20 games outside of Lincoln. The pick here is NEBRASKA to cover, and possibly win outright.

The FoxSheets provide two unbeaten trends to further support picking the Huskers:

Bo Pelini is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games in games played on turf as the coach of NEBRASKA. The average score was NEBRASKA 38.1, OPPONENT 24.1 - (Rating = 3*).

NEBRASKA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct. > 75%) over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NEBRASKA 32.4, OPPONENT 19.0 - (Rating = 2*).

The Huskers bring a potent ground game led by two players with almost the exact same rushing numbers in QB Taylor Martinez (63 rushes, 421 yds, 7 TD) and RB Rex Burkhead (63 rushes, 420 yds, 7 TD). Martinez has not thrown with great accuracy, completing just over half of his throws (43-for-85) for 647 yards, 4 TD and 2 INT. He has done a nice job spreading the wealth to his receivers, as the unit’s top four gainers all have between 111 and 139 receiving yards. After allowing 67 points in a two-game stretch to Fresno State and Washington, Nebraska settled down last week and held Wyoming to 14 points and 305 total yards on its home turf.

Wisconsin QB Russell Wilson is second in the nation in passing efficiency (218.38) with 11 TD and 1 INT, and RB Montee Ball has 480 total yards and 10 TD in four games. Sophomore James White is also running wild, especially in his past two games where he has 186 yards on just 17 carries (10.9 YPC). One player that has not lived up to high expectations in his career is senior WR Nick Toon, but he’s finishing up his college days in style with 299 receiving yards and five touchdowns in the past three weeks. Most of the Badgers defensive players have been great this year, but sophomore LB Chris Borland has been outstanding with 35 tackles (19 solo), 5.0 TFL and one interception.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32923 Followers:38
09/29/2011 05:53 PM

Southwest Classic pits two Top-20 teams


Cowboys Stadium - Arlington, TX
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas A&M -3, Total: 62.5

Two teams that could become great rivals in the SEC will square off in the Southwest Classic at Cowboys Stadium as non-conference foes on Saturday, when No. 14 Texas A&M takes on No. 18 Arkansas.

Both teams suffered major setbacks last week as the Aggies blew a 20-3 halftime lead and lost at home to Oklahoma State, while Arkansas got pasted 38-14 in Alabama. A&M allowed OSU’s Brandon Weeden to throw for a school-record 438 yards, and will have its hands full with an excellent Arkansas receiving corps. The Razorbacks have two straight victories over the Aggies, winning easily 47-19 in 2009 and outlasting them 24-17 last year. For the Hogs to win again, they have to nullify Texas A&M’s potent pass rush that leads the nation with 4.7 sacks per game. Razorbacks QB Tyler Wilson has made good decisions all year (7 TD, 3 INT) and will allow his receivers to win this game. The pick here is ARKANSAS.

This FoxSheets trend also favors the Razorbacks:

Bobby Petrino is 14-4 ATS (77.8%, +9.6 Units) off 2 or more consecutive overs in all games he has coached since 1992. The average score was Petrino 34.8, OPPONENT 23.4 - (Rating = 1*).

Aggies QB Ryan Tannehill has 297 passing YPG and 6 TD, but threw 3 INT against the Oklahoma State. His talented WR duo of Ryan Swope and Jeff Fuller have combined for 38 catches, 474 yards and four touchdowns. A&M was supposed to have one of the best ground games in the land, but the team ranks 46th in the nation at 171 YPG. Cyrus Gray has 268 yards and four scores, but his 4.2 YPC average is way down from last year’s stellar 5.7 YPC. Christine Michael is gaining 7.1 YPC, but only has 25 carries on the year. Junior LB Sean Porter continues to lead the defense with 3.5 sacks, 5.5 TFL and 23 total tackles in two games.

Arkansas has won 12 straight non-conference games in the regular season. Wilson has played well as Ryan Mallett’s replacement, completing 67% of his passes for 252 YPG. And now he has his full receiving corps healthy with the senior trio of Joe Adams, Greg Childs and Jarius Wright, who combined for 2,260 yards and 17 TD last year. Junior Cobi Hamilton actually leads the team with 271 receiving yards, but only had one catch against Alabama (a 19-yard TD). The running game has been better than expected after the preseason injury to Knile Davis. Ronnie Wingo, Jr. was averaging 75 rushing YPG before the Tide held him to 35 yards on 11 carries last week. Despite forcing only two turnovers (both interceptions) in four games, Arkansas still ranks a respectable 35th in the country in total defense (328 YPG). Junior LB Alonzo Highsmith leads the team with 5.0 TFL and also has 22 total tackles.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32923 Followers:38
09/29/2011 05:54 PM

No. 3 Alabama travels to No. 12 Florida


Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Alabama -3.5, Total: 44.5

Two of the top dozen teams in the nation clash in a key SEC battle when No. 3 Alabama travels to No. 12 Florida on Saturday night.

Alabama won last year’s meeting 31-6, but was outgained by a Florida squad that committed four turnovers. The Tide rank second in the nation in both scoring defense (8.0 PPG) and total defense (184 YPG), but the Gators are fifth in the nation in yards allowed (232 YPG). The new-look offense under OC Charlie Weis is scoring more than 40 points per game and the Gators actually have more rushing yards (259 YPG) than the Tide (231 YPG) this season. Florida coach Will Muschamp was an assistant under Alabama’s Nick Saban at LSU and with the Miami Dolphins, so he shouldn’t be surprised by what he sees. Although Alabama is 12-2 SU (10-4 ATS) in away games since 2008, this Gators offense will prove too much to handle for the Tide. The pick here is FLORIDA to cover at home.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also backs the Gators:

A home team (FLORIDA) - with an excellent rushing D - allowing 2.75 or less rushing yds/carry, after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game. (84-38 since 1992.) (68.9%, +42.2 units. Rating = 3*).

Alabama looked great in last week’s 38-14 pounding of Arkansas. QB A.J. McCarron went 15-of-20 for 200 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. Trent Richardson rushed for 126 yards (7.4 YPC) and added 85 receiving yards, including a 61-yard TD reception. Richardson is now averaging 141 total YPG, 6.6 yards per carry and has scored nine times. In two career games against Florida, he has carried the ball 21 times for 143 yards (6.8 YPC). Sophomore Eddie Lacy is also running all over opponents this year with 365 rushing yards, 4 TD and a whopping 8.9 yards per carry. The defense was even more impressive last week, limiting a quality Arkansas offense to 226 total yards, including 17 rushing yards on 19 carries. The Razorbacks entered the game averaging 517 yards of offense. The Tide could be short-handed as LB C.J. Mosley suffered an elbow injury last week and will be a game-time decision. Mosley returned an interception for a touchdown against Florida last year.

The Gators ground game has been unreal. They ran for 405 yards against Kentucky, as Jeff Demps gained 157 yards on just 10 carries and Chris Rainey added 105 on 7.0 YPC. Demps now has 320 rushing yards on 9.4 YPC for the season. Rainey leads the team with 411 rushing yards and also leads the Gators in all receiving categories -- 11 catches for 214 yards and two scores. QB John Brantley has played well in the past two weeks, both versus SEC opponents. He is 22-for-37 for 328 yards, 3 TD and 0 INT in wins over Tennessee and Kentucky. Brantley will need to show a big improvement from his performance in last year’s loss to Alabama, when he completed just 16-of-31 passes for 202 yards, no touchdowns and two picks.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32923 Followers:38
09/29/2011 05:56 PM

No. 10 South Carolina seeks 5-0 record hosting Auburn


Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: South Carolina -9.5, Total: 59.5

Tenth-ranked South Carolina tries to run over defending national champion Auburn when the Tigers visit Columbia on Saturday. The Gamecocks haven’t beaten Auburn since 1933, a stretch of six meetings.

Auburn has surrendered 227 rushing YPG (ninth-most in FBS), while Gamecocks RB Marcus Lattimore is third in the nation with 153 rushing YPG. Auburn scored 91 points in two wins over South Carolina last year, including 56 in the SEC Championship game. But this year is a different story, as the Tigers rank 78th in total offense (374 YPG). Last week, they only scored two offensive touchdowns versus a weak Florida Atlantic defense. Gamecocks embattled QB Stephen Garcia threw 4 INT last week, but will still start on Saturday. Garcia threw for 405 yards and 5 TD in the pair of losses to Auburn last year, and the staff reportedly has all the confidence in the world in his ability to keep his team unbeaten. The Gamecocks are 16-2 SU in their past 18 home games, and they should have no trouble winning by double-digits on Saturday. The pick here is SOUTH CAROLINA.

This FoxSheets coaching trend also sides with the Gamecocks:

Steve Spurrier is 13-3 ATS (81.3%, +9.7 Units) after allowing 75 or less passing yards in their last game in all games he has coached since 1992. The average score was Spurrier 35.1, OPPONENT 20.8 - (Rating = 1*).

Auburn has beaten South Carolina six straight times (4-2 ATS), but the Tigers were favored in all six of those wins. Since 2008, Auburn is 2-6 ATS as a road underdog. QB Barrett Trotter has had some huge shoes to fill as Cam Newton’s replacement, but Trotter has been pretty consistent, completing between 12 and 17 passes every game in 23 to 28 attempts. His completion rate is 62% and he has 783 yards, 8 TD and 3 INT. RB Michael Dyer ran for 301 yards (8.9 YPC) and four touchdowns in consecutive games against Mississippi State and Clemson, but he was held to 68 yards (4.9 YPC) and no scores against FAU. Dyer had 164 yards on 37 carries (4.4 YPG) in the pair of wins over the ‘Cocks last year. In addition to the porous run defense, the Tigers rank 90th against the pass (251 YPG) and 110th in total defense (478 YPG). Part of this is because they only have three total sacks in four games.

Garcia is getting most of the heat for the South Carolina’s sagging offense, and rightfully so with 3 TD and 7 INT (tied for most in nation). But WR Alshon Jeffery, who caught 88 passes for 1,517 yards and 9 TD last year, only has four catches for 69 yards in the past two games against Navy and Vanderbilt. However, this Auburn defense was unable to stop him last year, as Jeffery caught 12 passes for 228 yards and three scores in the two meetings. Freshman WR Damiere Byrd, who will make his collegiate debut Sunday after serving an NCAA suspension, gives Garcia another weapon. With all the stars on the Gamecocks offense, the defense is sometimes overlooked. However, South Carolina ranks 13th in passing defense (161 YPG) and 23rd in total defense (298 YPG) this year. DE Melvin Ingram already has three return touchdowns and freshman DL Jadeveon Clowney has been as good as advertised with four sacks, three forced fumbles and 16 tackles in his first four collegiate games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32923 Followers:38
09/30/2011 06:33 PM

Las Vegas Money Moves

September 30, 2011

I called MGM Resorts sports book director Jay Rood Thursday evening to discuss his big games for Saturday and he begins by talking about the I-25 rivalry and the Maloof Trophy. I had no idea what he was talking about and asked him to come again.
“What, you don’t want to talk about the big game between my alma matter, New Mexico State, and New Mexico,” Rood said with a chuckle. “We‘ve seen New Mexico (+1) money come in as people think the new coach and attitude of the team will be changed. Anything has to be an improvement from a coach who guided the Lobos to a 2-26 record during his regime.”

The big games I was looking for information on were Alabama visiting the swamp in Florida and Nebraska traveling to Wisconsin for an intriguing Big 10 battle. The pair not only has national championship implications, but also major public appeal as they'll be the two primetime games featured on ABC and CBS.

We get to see Nebraska in their first Big 10 contest on the road playing in a sea of red, while also seeing if Florida is truly as good as they have looked so far. The Gators are 3-0-1 against the spread going against an Alabama squad that has dominated every team placed in front of them, which is why they are a strong 3 ½-point favorite on the road this week.

“They (sharp money) snapped up the 4 ½ right away on Florida and pushed us down, but all the small money has been on Alabama,” said Rood. “We’re already pretty long on parlay money with Alabama and it’s only going to multiply on game day“

“Our day is ultimately going to come down to the results of the two big public sides of Alabama and Stanford and you’d think one of these weeks we’d find some luck on these late games,” Rood said half-jokingly. “It seems like we lose every big college football game played on national television. From 4:00 p.m. (PT) on, we have been getting killed.”

Stanford has been a public favorite each week and has covered all three of its games. They'll try to knock off UCLA this week as a 21-point favorite Saturday night.

Nebraska has only covered one of its four games while Wisconsin has gone 3-1 ATS, but a lot of bettors have the feeling that Wisconsin laying 9 ½-points might be cheap.

“We opened the Badgers minus-9 ½ and they (sharp money) bet it to 10, but then we immediately got Huskers money at 10,” said Rood. “We’ve been kind of bouncing around back and forth and are currently at 10. This is one of those night games we have had trouble with, but we’ve had balanced action, so we’re just hoping it doesn’t land 10.”

The home field advantage plays a key role in why the spread is so highly with two highly ranked teams against each other, but Rood thinks Nebraska may have some trouble.

“The speed of the Wisconsin defense should be able to keep Taylor Martinez from hitting the edges strong. I think we’ll see Nebraska having some difficulties in this one.”

Line Moves of the Week:

Illinois opened as a 6 ½-point home favorites at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book and has been pushed all the way to -9 ½ against Northwestern. Most other books around town have Illinois -10.

Boston College opened as a 1 ½-point favorite at the Wynn for their home game against Wake Forest. The line went the other way with Wake being the favorite and since reaching 2 ½ points. The game is now a PICK giving the Wynn crew a pat on the back for having the right number according to the Sharps.

Rutgers opened -1 at the Wynn for its road game at Syracuse, but action quickly moved the Orangemen to 3-point favorites. The line has since dropped to Syracuse -1 ½.

The Wynn opened Georgia Tech surprisingly low at -6 and it rose to -11 for its road game at N.C. State. The Hilton currently has Tech a 10-point favorite.

One of the Wynn’s biggest disparities from their opener to where it’s currently at now is Connecticut, who opened as an 8-point home favorite against Western Michigan. The Huskies are only -2 ½ now.

The Wynn opened Hawaii as a 2 ½-point favorite at Louisiana Tech and now Tech is showing up -4 ½ at the Hilton.

Middle Tennessee State had a great game last week at Troy and many may have inflated its numbers too high for its home game against Memphis. The Wynn opened MTSU -18 ½, what appears to be a proper number, but it’s now showing -23 ½ at the Hilton after they opened their numbers on Monday at -21.

The Wynn opens their numbers every Sunday at 3:00 p.m. PT, the first betting shop in the world. They have a lot of different opinions from what the market prices end up being. After studying their ratings the first few weeks, they appear to be right on the money with the bulk of the moves as they have come back to their original number.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32923 Followers:38
09/30/2011 06:34 PM

Utah St. at BYU

September 29, 2011

For the second time in as many weeks, Friday Night Lights takes us back to Provo and the home of the Brigham Young Cougars, who rallied to capture a 24-17 win over Central Florida as 1 ½-point home favorites last Friday.

This time around, the visitor will be Utah State, a program that has lost 15 consecutive road games at BYU.

Most books have installed BYU (2-2 straight up, 2-2 against the spread) as a 7 ½-point favorite with a total of 51. Bettors can take Utah St. (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) to win outright for a plus-260 return (risk $100 to win $260).

Bronco Mendenhall’s team was coming off an embarrassing 54-10 home loss to arch-rival Utah when UCF came calling last week. The Knights drew first blood with a field goal early in the first quarter and had a 10-3 advantage at intermission.

Central Florida QB Jeff Godfrey ran for his second touchdown midway through the third quarter to put his team up by a 17-10 count. But the Cougars drew even again on the ensuing kickoff when Cody Hoffman found a seam and went 93 yards to paydirt.

BYU took the lead for the first time at the 10:29 mark of the final stanza thanks to a six-yard touchdown run by Bryan Kariya, who finished with 52 rushing yards on 14 carries. UCF was threatening for a tying score in the waning moments, but Godfrey made several terrible decisions that ruined the last-gasp drive.

BYU was out-yarded 399-260 by UCF, but the Cougars created three turnovers (two fumbles, one interception) and only committed one and that was the difference.

Utah St. nearly pulled a stunning upset in Week 1 when it faced the defending national champions on The Plains. The Aggies took a commanding 38-28 lead with a little more than three minutes remaining, but Auburn responded with a TD drive that cut the deficit to three at the two-minute mark.

From there, AU recovered an onside kick and marched down into the red zone. On a second-and-goal play with 50 ticks left, Michael Dyer plunged one yard to the goal line and the play was ruled a touchdown. However, video replays seemed to clearly indicate that Dyer came up short of the plane. Nevertheless, the call was not overturned and Auburn pulled out a fortunate 42-38 win.

But the Aggies easily took the cash as 23-point road underdogs.

Since then, Utah St. has demolished Weber St. 54-17 as a 14-point home ‘chalk.’ After an open date, Utah St. dropped a 35-34 double-overtime decision to Colorado St. last Saturday as a 13-point home favorite.

Andersen’s team had a 21-13 lead until the Rams scored a TD and converted a two-point conversion with 42 seconds remaining in regulation. After both teams matched TDs in the first extra session, Colorado St. went ahead 35-28 by scoring on its possession to start the second OT.

Utah St. answered on Robert Turbin’s fourth rushing touchdown of the night from 25 yards out. Sensing that his defense was tiring, Andersen opted to go for two and the win, but the conversion attempt came up short and CSU escaped Logan with an upset win.

Turbin rushed for 115 yards and four scores against the Rams. For the season, Turbin has rushed 64 times for 365 yards and eight TDs, averaging 5.7 yards per carry.

True freshman QB Chuckie Keeton has played well from the get-go. In his first start at Auburn, Keeton ran for a pair of TDs and threw for 213 yards without an interception. In fact, Keeton has yet to be picked off while completing 40-of-60 passes for two touchdowns.

As for BYU sophomore QB Jake Heaps, he has a mediocre 3/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Heaps has 855 passing yards, completing 55 percent of his throws to date.

Utah St. has been an incredibly lucrative team to support as a road underdog since Gary Andersen took over in 2008. The Aggies have cashed tickets at a 9-2 ATS clip in such spots since 2009. If we go all the way back to 2007, Utah St. is 18-7 ATS in its last 25 games as a road ‘dog.

As a home favorite on Mendenhall’s watch, BYU owns a 17-13 spread record.

The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight head-to-head meetings between these in-state rivals. As for this year, the ‘over’ has hit in all three Utah St. games, while the ‘under’ is 3-1 for BYU.

Kickoff is slated for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Clemson owns a 4-1 spread record as a home underdog during Dabo Swinney’s four-year tenure.

--Here’s the stat line on Mike Locksley’s tenure as head coach at New Mexico: 2-26 overall record, one lawsuit for sex and age discrimination, one fight with an assistant coach who went on ESPN detailing Locksley’s violent temper tantrum, one recruit arrested in Locksley’s car for DUI while visiting campus and, at last, one pink slip before the end of September in his third season. What a legacy Locksley leaves behind in Albuquerque!

--Hot Seats:
1-Houston Nutt (Ole Miss)
2-Rick Neuheisel (UCLA)
3-Mark Richt (Georgia)
4-Neil Callaway (UAB)
5-Mike Stoops (Arizona)

--Florida hasn’t been a home underdog since the Ron Zook Era. To be exact, the Gators haven’t been catching points in Gainesville since 2003 when referee Jack Childress led FSU to a 38-34 win as a one-point favorite in The Swamp Swindle. UF is a four-point home ‘dog vs. Alabama on Saturday night.

--Alabama hasn’t won at The Swamp since 1999 when Shaun Alexander’s 25-yard TD run in overtime lifted the Tide to victory. This is an extremely misleading mention because ‘Bama has only played at UF once since ’99.

--This, however, is not a misleading factoid: Mississippi St. hasn’t prevailed between the hedges in Athens since 1956. The Bulldogs are seven-point ‘dogs Saturday at UGA.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32923 Followers:38
09/30/2011 06:36 PM

Big 10 Report - Week 5

Wisconsin (-9.5) vs. Nebraska - 8:00 PM ET, ABC

UW: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS - Last week: vs. South Dakota St, W 59-10
UN: 4-0 SU, 1-3 ATS - Last week: at Wyoming, W 38-14

This is quite possibly the game of the year (and possibly a preview of the Big Ten Championship) for the Big Ten as two Top-10 teams matchup at Camp Randall. ESPN's College Gameday crew will be on hand as Nebraska plays its very first conference game as a member of the Big Ten. Wisconsin opened at -7, but that number quickly rose and now sits at -9.5.

Wisconsin has been the league's only consistently dominant team through four weeks, albeit against a fairly weak schedule. Wisconsin ranks 8th in total offense and 6th in scoring offense with QB Wilson completing 75.8% with 11 touchdowns and RB's White and Ball with 663 rush yards and 12 touchdowns combined. Defensively the Badgers are allowing just 247 yards per game (8th nationally) and 8.5 points per game (3rd). The competition level goes up significantly this week at home, where Wisconsin is 45-4 since the start at the 2004 season and 34-3 under coach Bielema. Those three teams to beat Wisconsin at home all went on to play in BCS Bowls.

The Huskers have been quite one-dimensional on offense thus far. QB Martinez and RB Burkhead have combined for 841 rush yards (7.6 YPC) and 14 touchdowns. But Martinez is completing just 50% of his passes with four touchdowns and two interceptions. The Huskers haven't needed an effective passing attack yet as their rushing game has been sufficient through four games. Nebraska's defense hasn't been as dominant as it was supposed to be this season as it ranks 52nd in total defense and 48th in scoring defense. However, the Huskers haven't been at full strength yet as three preseason All-American candidates - DT Crick, LB David, and CB Dennard - will all play together Saturday for the first time this season.

Something to consider: Wisconsin is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games overall - a run started with a 13-point win over then-No. 1 Ohio State at home last October.

Ohio State (-3) vs. Michigan State - 3:30 PM ET, ABC regional

OSU: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: vs. Colorado, W 37-17
MSU: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: vs. Central Michigan, W 45-7

The fact that both of these squads suffered non-conference losses makes this game more intriguing. The winner will get off to a strong start in conference play while the loser has more questions to answer. The Spartans have lost seven straight to the Buckeyes and haven't won in Columbus since 1998. Only one meeting has been decided by single digits and the average win margin for OSU is 18 points per game. OSU is a much different team this time around, yet is favored by 3 points at home. MSU has yet to register a quality win, but their defense has looked dominant. Not only are the Spartans limiting yards (1st in total defense) and points (9th in scoring defense), but they're making big plays, as they showed last week by intercepting CMU's QB four times. The Spartans are averaging 39 points per game at home, but scored just 13 points in their only road game so far (a 18-point loss to Notre Dame).

OSU ranks 91st in total offense and 69th in scoring offense. Freshman QB Braxton Miller got the first start of his young career last weekend. He completed just 5-of-13 passes for 83 yards, but had two touchdowns while also rushing for 83 yards. How he reacts against a Big Ten opponent will determine how well the Buckeyes perform on Saturday. OSU plays Michigan State, Nebraska and Illinois in its next three games, so a loss could send the Buckeyes reeling. Expect a big effort at home from OSU.

Something to consider: Michigan State is just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games as an underdog. Ohio State is 17-4 ATS in its last 21 home games (16-5 ATS as a home favorite).

Illinois (-8) vs. Northwestern - 12:00 PM, ESPN2

ILL: 4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: vs. Western Michigan, W 23-20
NU: 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS - Last week: BYE

Last year this game was played at Wrigley Field in November. Northwestern was off of a huge win vs. Iowa and was playing its first game without QB Persa (injured the previous week). Illinois netted 519 rush yards and won by 21 points. Prior to that game NU had won six of the previous eight meetings. Illinois opens as an 8.5 point favorite for this year's matchup.


Northwestern QB Persa should finally make his return for the Land of Lincoln Trophy showdown. How Persa performs in his first action since last November remains to be seen, but his presence alone should be a rousing factor for the Wildcats. Northwestern figures to be super motivated for this game: with Persa back, off of a loss with an extra week to prepare, and the fact that this is a rivalry game with a chance to knock Illinois off its pedestal.

Illinois had a flat performance against Western Michigan last week - understandable after a huge win against Arizona State the week prior - but found a way to remain unbeaten and at 4-0 for the first time since 1951 with a three-point victory. Illinois lost one 1st and one 2nd round talent from its 2010 defense. Still, the Illini rank 6th in rush yards allowed, 12th in total yards, and 13th in scoring defense.

Something to consider: Northwestern is just 1-7 ATS in its last 8 Big Ten games, but is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as a road underdog. The Wildcats have also covered eight of the last 11 meetings against Illinois.

Michigan (-20) vs. Minnesota - 12:00 PM ET, Big Ten Network

Mich: 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS - Last week: vs. San Diego State, W 28-7
Minn: 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: vs. North Dakota St, L 24-37

Minnesota is off of a terrible loss to North Dakota State and now has to play a team that has beaten it 19 of the previous 20 meetings (since 1987). Michigan has outscored Minnesota by 22 points per game in that 20 game span and only four games were decided by less than 10 points. Michigan was favored by 20+ points in seven of those games and was 6-1 ATS. Again the Wolverines are favored by 20 points heading into this weekend.

Minnesota fell to an FCS opponent for the second consecutive year and the third time in the past five seasons with its 13-point loss to North Dakota State last week. The Gophers now have a quarterback dilemma on their hands with Marqueis Gray and Max Shortell. Gray (50.6% with 3 TD & 3 INT) remains the starter, but freshman Shortell will see time.

The Wolverines are 4-0 for the third consecutive year after a 21-point win over head coach Brady Hoke's former team - San Diego State. QB Robinson again had a big game on the ground with 200 rush yards and three touchdowns, but his deficiencies in the passing game could come back to haunt UM. The defense continues to make strides, as it has now forced 17 turnovers in four games and is allowing just 13 PPG (11th nationally).

Something to consider: Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog. Michigan is just 3-23 ATS in its last 26 conference games.

Indiana (+16.5) vs. Penn State - 12:00 PM ET, ESPNU

IU: 1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: at North Texas, L 21-24
PSU: 3-1 SU, 0-4 ATS - Last week: vs. Eastern Michigan, W 34-6

Indiana fell behind 24-0 to winless North Texas last week before mounting a rally in the final minutes. UNT ranks at or near the bottom of every major offensive and defensive category and Indiana couldn't get a W. First-year coach Kevin Wilson still has a lot of questions heading into Big Ten play, most notably at quarterback. Wright-Baker has started every game thus far, but freshman Kiel remains neck-and-neck.

The Nittany Lions rank 8th nationally in total defense, 7th in passing defense, and 10th in scoring defense. However, this unit took a big hit last week as defensive captain and team leader LB Mauti tore his ACL and will miss the remainder of the season.

The Nittany Lions had their best offensive game of the season last week against Eastern Michigan when they tallied 468 yards and 34 points. Co-starting QB's McGloin and Bolden combined to complete 21-of-30 passes for 335 yards and four scores. Both could see some success against this Hoosier defense that allowed passing touchdowns of 17, 32, and 83 yards to North Texas last week.

Something to consider: Penn State has never lost to the Hoosiers with a 14-0 all-time record (average margin of victory 17 PPG). PSU is 6-0-1 ATS its last seven games as a double digit road favorite.

Purdue (+12) vs. Notre Dame - 8:00 PM ET, ESPN

PU: 2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS - Last week: BYE
ND: 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS - Last week: at Pittsburgh, W 15-12

The Boilers beat up on FCS Southeast Missouri State two weeks ago before spending the bye week preparing for Notre Dame. QB Marve returned after an ACL injury last season delayed his comeback. He completed 7-of-8 passes for 91 yards and a touchdown while splitting time with TerBush. TerBush will start against the Irish, but both will get playing time.

Purdue really needed that bye week to prepare for this, as QB Marve put it, "program defining game." Notre Dame is more battle-tested, having played three teams in the Top-25 so far. But this Irish offense has 15 turnovers through four games, and that most certainly cost them two wins. Purdue will need to convert on any forced turnovers to upset ND.

Something to consider: Purdue has lost three straight and is just 5-20 against the Irish since 1986. The Boilers have won four out of its last five games as a double digit home underdog and is 9-4-1 ATS its last 14 as a home 'dog.

Iowa - BYE

3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS - Last week: vs. UL Monroe, W 45-17

The Hawkeyes enter the bye week after an easy win against Louisiana-Monroe. QB Vandenberg has caught fire, tallying 1,095 pass yards with 10 TDs and only one INT through four games. Iowa will spend the off week preparing for a date with Penn State in Happy Valley

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32923 Followers:38
09/30/2011 06:40 PM


Friday, September 30

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Utah State - 8:00 PM ET Utah State +7.5 500

Brigham Young - Under 50.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32923 Followers:38
09/30/2011 07:26 PM

Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday's game

Utah State (+4) beat BYU 31-16 LY, ending long skid vs in-state rival Cougars; State lost its last five visits to Provo, covering just one of last four visits here. Aggies led by 10 at Auburn with 3:38 left, but couldn't finish deal, then lost 35-34 at home in OT to Colorado State a week ago, so they've played pretty well but haven't beaten I-A team yet. BYU is 4-2 in last six e games as home favorite; they've scored only 16 ppg in a 2-2 start, with three of the four staying under the total.

Saturday's best games

Underdogs are 9-2-1 vs spread in last dozen Air Force-Navy games, as Falcons lost last three visits here, by 3-11-3 points. Air Force beat the Middies 14-6 (-9.5) at home LY, their first series win in last eight tries, running ball for 292 yards. Air Force hasn't beaten a I-A team yet, while Navy (+17.5) lost 24-21 at South Carolina two weeks ago, converting 9 of 14 on third down and running ball for 274 yards. Navy is 7-14-1 in its last 22 games as a home fave. Air Force is 12-10-1 as a road dog.

Favorites are 5-2 in Northwestern's last seven visits to Illinois, with the Wildcats winning three of last four; Illini are 5-3 vs spread in last eight as a series favorite, 2-2 here. Since 2008, Illinois is 5-7-1 as a home favorite. Wildcats covered eight of last ten games as a road underdog- they're 1-1 on road this season, winning 24-17 (+3) at Boston College, losing 21-14 (-8) at Army two weeks ago. Illinois is 4-0 but hasn't played anyone of note; they trailed Western Michigan at half last week, won 23-20 (-13).

Underdogs covered six of last seven Georgia Tech-NC State games, with Tech winning last three visits to Raleigh, by 8-10-7 points. Tech covered one of last four as a series favorite- they're 4-0 this year, scoring 50 ppg in three games vs I-A opponents. NC State beat Tech two of last three years after losing previous five meetings, but Wolfpack lost both games vs I-A foes, 34-27 (-2.5) at Wake Forest, 44-14 (+7.5) last Thursday at Cincinnati. Tech has 1,298 rushing yards in its last three games.

Ohio State won its last seven games vs Michigan State, with six of seven wins by 10+ points; Spartans lost lost last four visits here by an average score of 30-20. Favorites covered six of last eight in series, but Spartans are 3-2 vs spread in last five visits here. Buckeyes completed 11 of 34 passes in last two games; since 2004, they're 30-17 as a home fave, 1-2 so far this season. MSU covered twice in last seven games as road dog, losing 31-13 (+5) at Notre Dame in only road game this year.

Florida is home dog for first time since 2003. Alabama won 31-6/32-13 in last two games vs Gators; last six series games were decided by 11+ points. This is Tide's first visit to Swamp since '06; they're 9-4 in last 13 games as road favorite, winning 27-11 (-10) in only road game this year, at Penn State. Florida covered seven of last ten games as a dog. Alabama outscored first four opponents 76-22 in second half. Dogs are 4-3-1 vs spread in last eight series games.

Arkansas beat old SWC/future SEC rival Texas A&M 24-17/47-19 last couple years; Razorbacks are 10-7-1 vs spread in game following last 18 losses- they got drilled at Alabama last week. Aggies covered six of last eight as a road favorite, are coming off home loss to Oklahoma State in a game A&M led 20-3 at half- they're 6-10 coming off a loss. Arkansas is 11-8 as a dog under Petrino. Hogs are minus-2 in turnovers in each of its last three games, all of which went over the total.

Utah's first Pac-10 home game is against Washington squad that got beat 51-38 (+17) at Nebraska in its only road game this year. Huskies are 3-1 after beating Cal at home last week- they scored 40-38-31 points in last three games. Since 2006, Utes are 13-9-2 as home favorite, 25-15-1 in conference play; they had last week off after crushing rival BYU 54-10 two weeks ago. Since '07, Huskies are 6-13 as road underdogs. Utes have +9 turnover margin, recovering eight opponent fumbles last two games.

Baylor QB's have thrown 14 TD passes, 13 IPs, but things figure to get tougher in Little Apple vs Kansas State squad that won in rainy Miami last week. Bears lost last three visits here by average score of 46-10, but those games were before Baylor had Briles/Griffin combo. Baylor scored 50-56 in its games vs I-A foes; over last decade, they're 5-0 as a favorite on road. K-State outrushed Miami 265-139 in rain last week, stopping 'canes on goal line in last 1:00. Wildcats are 3-7 in last 10 as home dog.

Mississippi State lost 27-24/47-0 in last two visits to Georgia; MSU is 4-8 in last dozen games as road underdog- they beat Louisiana Tech last week in OT, after consecutive losses to Auburn/LSU, so they're trying to find their way. Georgia outrushed Ole Miss 207-34 last week- since 2003, Dawgs are 15-22-1 as home favorites. Since 2008, State is 7-10 vs spread coming off a win- they were outscored 23-12 in second half of last two games. Georgia's losses are Boise/South Carolina, top 25 clubs.

Auburn won last five games vs South Carolina by average score of 37-15, covering four of five games, winning last three here by 39-7-17 points, but Auburn's defense is lame, allowing 41 of 69 conversions on 3rd down (59.4%)- they gave up 624 yards in 38-24 loss at Clemson, only road tilt of year so far. Tigers are 2-6 in last eight games as road dog. Gamecocks have been tested in tight wins over Georgia (45-42), Navy (24-21); they are 12-9 vs spread in last 21 games as a home favorite.

Clemson beat Auburn/Florida State at home last two weeks, now goes to Blacksburg for first time since '06 to play Virginia Tech squad that beat them five games in row, all by 17+ points. Hard to tell much about Tech squad that allowed 9 ppg to three cupcakes, outscoring them 24-3 in 2nd half. Hokies are 8-5 in last 13 games as home favorite. First away game for Clemson team that covered four of last five as road underdog. Tigers lost last two visits to Lane Stadium 24-7 (-5) in '06, 31-11 (+12) in '99

First game in new league for Nebraska; over last decade, they're just 6-11 as road underdog, but 2-1 under Pelini. Cornhuskers allowed average of 157.7 rushing yards, 27 ppg in last three games, but they also ran ball for 861 yards in those games. Wisconsin won its four games by average of 39-9, but none of those teams are any good. Badgers have senior QB in Wilson, who transferred in from NC State; they're 23-15-1 in their last 39 games as a home favorite, 16-12 under Beilema. Huskers completed only 32 of 63 passes in last three games. Badgers have more balance.

Fresno State went to Oxford LY and got crushed 55-38 (+2), giving up 425 rushing yards to Ole Miss, but the '11 Rebels are struggling with the ball, scoring 11 ppg, running for just 61 ypg in losing all three games vs I-A competition. Since 2006, Fresno is mystifying 3-14-1 vs spread as home favorite; they've allowed 34 ppg in 1-2 start vs I-A teams, but all three of those games were on road. Ole Miss is 6-2 as road unerdog with Nutt as coach, but they lost only '11 road game, 30-7 at Vanderbilt.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32923 Followers:38
09/30/2011 07:27 PM


Friday, September 30

Utah State at BYU: What bettors need to know

Utah State Aggies at BYU Cougars (-7.5, 51)

It’s no Holy War, but there is plenty of bad blood between the Aggies and Cougars. Utah State upset BYU 31-16 as a 4-point home underdog last October, the first time it had beaten its state rival in the past 11 meetings going back to 1994.

The Old Wagon Wheel is up for grabs when these programs collide under the Friday night lights.

Run, Robert Run

The Aggies boast the fifth-best rushing offense in college football, behind the quick feet of running back Robert Turbin.

After missing the entire 2010 season due to injuries, Turbin has picked up where he left off in 2009, when he rushed for 1,296 yards – 21st in the nation. This year, he's amassed 365 yards through the first three games and has found the end zone eight times – tied for the fourth most rushing TDs. He scored four of those touchdowns in last week's loss to Colorado State.

"I think he is a great running back. In fact I was just telling our offensive staff I would love to coach him," BYU head coach Bronco Mendenhall told "He plays hard and runs physical, runs for power and doesn't back down. He is fun to watch; I really think he is a great player."

The Cougars have struggled against the run this season, allowing more than 138 yards per game. Against Central Florida last week, BYU did a much better job containing the run, allowing only 81 yards on the ground in the 24-17 win.

However, in the 54-10 loss to Utah, the Cougars were bowled over for 242 rushing yards, giving up 6.4 yards per carry. Turbin enters Friday’s game averaging 5.7 yards a run. The Aggies have scored five rushing touchdowns in each of their first three games.

Death from above

Brigham Young was lucky to escape with a win over UCF last week, needing three second-half turnovers from the Knights and a 93-yard kick return touchdown to battle back from 14 points down.

The Cougars were outgained 399-260, with 318 of those UCF gains coming through the air. The secondary wasn’t on the same page, with corners and safeties mixing up assignments. Mendenhall blamed some of the confusion on struggles during training camp but admitted that his pass defenders need to sharpen up heading into Friday.

“We will have to keep improving that, or no matter what size of a lead we might gain, we could be at risk because of the chunks of yardage that could come by not executing over-the-top coverage, which is a bigger part of it than underneath coverage, because of the point potential,” he told the Salt Lake Tribune.

Last season, Utah State opened scoring with a 79-yard touchdown pass from quarterback Diondre Borel to receiver Xavier Martin in the win over BYU. The Aggies finished with just 192 yards through the air.

The Cougars are currently ranked 50th against the pass, giving up 209 yards passing through their first four games.

Fresh meat or Ground Chuck?

Brigham Young's pass rush is licking its chops with freshman quarterback Chuckie Keeton lining up under center for Utah State.

Keeton, who won the starting job over Adam Kennedy, isn’t the main focus of the Aggies offense, which was evident in last week’s 35-34 overtime loss to Colorado State. Keeton passed the ball only 15 times, completing nine of those throws for 86 yards.

"Chuckie struggled a lot making his reads," Aggies head coach Gary Andersen told the media. "College football caught up to him on Saturday."

The lack of a passing threat makes USU’s game plan very predictable, which concerns Andersen. He told reporters he would like to get Keeton more involved in the offense but still has trouble trusting the young pivot.

"That’s the number one priority," Andersen said. "Colorado State came up with a good pass rush and that affected our timing. That’s a concern because BYU is very good at getting pressure on the quarterback. We have to pass block in order to be effective on Friday."

Keeton went 21 for 30 for 213 yards in the Aggies' near upset of Auburn to start the year. Utah State ranks 104 out of 120 FBS programs in passing, averaging just 167 yards per game.


- Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
- Home team is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.
- Aggies are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
- Underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

Prediction: BYU 27, Utah State 21 - The Cougars slow down a one-dimensional Aggies attack and avenge last year's loss.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: