finance Posts:9366 Followers:232
On 01/03/2013 10:14 AM in NFL

Superbowl Odds - Who is this year's G-Men?

Current odds to win the SB at DSI
Denver +240
New England +250
Atlanta +330
San Francisco +460
Green Bay +575
Seattle +1000
Houston +1100
Baltimore +1600
Washington +1900
Cincy +2800
Indy +2800
Minnesota +2800

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finance Posts:9366 Followers:232
01/03/2013 10:27 AM

OK so who do we like as a dark horse? First off no team with a rookie QB has ever won a Superbowl (I've seen some arguments that Kurt Warner was a rookie the year he won with the Rams but he was on a roster all of the year before and even got into a couple of games) throw out Seattle, Washington (one of them is gone this weekend anyway) and Indy...say what you want about their chances, but I'm throwing them out....Denver and New England's odds are too low, since to me if they make the Championship game it is about a pick-em way do I take Atlanta the way they closed out the season at only where might any value be? I sure would love to take a flyer on Minnesota at +2800 with the solid running game and good defense but I think they get hosed getting the Packers the week after they beat them to get there...

The only place to me where there might be value is Houston at +1100 and/or SF at +460...SF because it looks to me that they have a much better than average shot of getting to the game where anything can happen, and Houston who looked like the best team in football until the last couple of weeks....if they can get the mojo back can they make a run all the way? I'm not too sure that they can but it looks hard to find value in this group to me....

What does everyone else think?

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btb Posts:2279 Followers:163
01/03/2013 10:28 AM

I like the Bengals... Seattle value is really good to, I think their hardest game to get to the bowl is the Skins I think they matchup well against all others

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argon18 Posts:439 Followers:18
01/03/2013 10:50 AM

I like SF Harbaugh will be hungry after last years miss. Dark dark horse Sea. Don't trust Hou at all with their lackluster showing the last few weeks, not good to go into the playoffs on a tailspin.

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endymion Posts:391 Followers:18
01/03/2013 11:09 AM

The odds are ridiculous, there's like 52% vig in these odds

  • 01/03/2013 11:24 AM

    Here's something I did in about 5 minutes:

    All "field" bets tend to suck when made early. These are among the most profitable bets for bookmakers because a lot of casual players put some money on their favorite teams.

  • 01/03/2013 11:27 AM

    Just one additional note: it's still possible that there is some value even at these odds if the bookmakers are way off about the chances of one of the underdogs, e.g. Vikings or Redskins but it would be a long shot anyway

  • 01/03/2013 11:28 AM

    Awesome man....thanks for the info....

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btb Posts:2279 Followers:163
01/03/2013 11:51 AM

Thinking about it some Houston is getting a bad rap, they were so dominate early. had no pressure all year. People basically have wrote them 11-1 that might be worth a flier

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mojo822 Posts:583 Followers:6
01/03/2013 12:05 PM

I like Seattle...Physical D...Offense is Underrated

sharpsquare Posts:3190 Followers:5
01/03/2013 12:41 PM

I don't like SF who is now basically playing with a rookie qb experiece wise and im just not a fan of him and i would also toss out Sea/Wash and Indy just so much to overcome for them to win it all.

I think Houston is somewhat of an overlay and a decent price a lot of talent there but man do they choke so much in big games but still maybe worth a couple bucks.