coleryan Posts:21705 Followers:24
12/23/2012 11:48 AM

San Francisco at Seattle, 8:30 ET NBC
San Francisco: 11-3 ATS off a road game
Seattle: 6-22 ATS off a win by 21+ points

coleryan Posts:21705 Followers:24
12/23/2012 11:49 AM

Best road records in the NFL since 2011: 49ers, Packers, Patriots and Texans all at 11-4

coleryan Posts:21705 Followers:24
12/23/2012 11:50 AM

Matchup: Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos

Spread: Broncos minus-13
Public consensus pick: 56 percent picked Broncos

Public perception: The Broncos are still very much a popular team, but the public is getting hip to the Browns not being a walkover anymore, so I don't think it'll get bet to 14 except at the most square shops.

Wiseguys' view: This is "dog or pass" for most sharps. The main reason to pass is that the Broncos aren't expected to have a letdown as they now have the inside track on the AFC's No. 2 seed and a shot at home field throughout the playoffs.

Tuley's Take: I understand all that about the Broncos, but they don't have to win by two touchdowns to accomplish any of those goals. Besides, the two teams have the exact same spread record (8-5-1) and I think the Browns actually took the Redskins for granted last week when RG III didn't play. I believe they come with a much more focused effort here. The pick: Browns.

coleryan Posts:21705 Followers:24
12/23/2012 11:51 AM

San Diego at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 1-8 ATS after allowing 30+ points
NY Jets: 22-11 Over vs. conference opponents

coleryan Posts:21705 Followers:24
12/23/2012 11:52 AM

Tennessee at Green Bay -12.5

Look-ahead line last week at Cantor: -7.5

GB: won 31 last 37 games
4 teams Packers lost to: 34-17-1 SU on the season

GB still fighting for #2 playoff spot

Packers: 30-14 ATS at home in December

coleryan Posts:21705 Followers:24
12/23/2012 11:57 AM

1 pm ET start = 10 am body clocks for Raiders
(two prior east coast games this year: lost by combined 57 points)

coleryan Posts:21705 Followers:24
12/23/2012 11:57 AM

Highest Total QBR in last 5 seasons when kickoff temp is below 32 degrees- Aaron Rodgers 75.6, Peyton Manning 70.1, Tom Brady 67.4

coleryan Posts:21705 Followers:24
12/23/2012 11:57 AM

Matchup: Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals

Spread: Bears minus-5.5
Public consensus pick: 65 percent picked Bears

Public perception: The public is on the Bears here but it's not due to anything they've done lately. Maybe it's just that they still have the wild card to play for. The public is obviously not buying the Cards despite their 38-10 win over the Lions last week.

Wiseguys' view: I haven't heard a single handicapper or wiseguy make a case for this game.

Tuley's Take: I was on the Cardinals a lot early in the season, but that ran its course. Not even I could get on them last week, though that was more the Lions imploding. The pick: Pass (pool play: Bears, barely).

coleryan Posts:21705 Followers:24
12/23/2012 12:02 PM

Buffalo at Miami -4.5
opened 5

Visitor in Miami games 50-27 ATS (65%)

Miami offense has scored 8 TDs in last 6 games

Teams who lost by 30 or more last week: 153-114 (57.3%) since 1990.

Fitspatrick QB rating in December is less than 67.

Miami’s cover as a biggish favorite last week makes bettors comfortable with that spot today.

coleryan Posts:21705 Followers:24
12/23/2012 12:04 PM


Open: Indianapolis -6
Current: Indianapolis -6
Public Betting %: 82% on Indianapolis

What they see: The Chiefs? Hahahahahahahahaha.

Analysis: The Chiefs are so much worse than any other NFL team that it’s not even funny. They can’t score, can’t stop anyone, have zero sense of pride, and it was reported this week that GM Scott Pioli and head coach Romeo Crennel have already been told they’ll be canned at the end of the season.

They’re 18-29-1 ATS (38.3%) since 2007 at Arrowhead Stadium, a place that used to rank among the most intimidating environments in the NFL.

Seriously, this team was shut out by the Raiders last week. The Raiders. You know, the team that had given up an average of 36 points over its previous six games, all losses? Yeah, that team. Shut ‘em out.

Oh, and the Colts are pretty good and looking to clinch a playoff spot.

(Worth noting: The preceding paragraphs were written by an angry Chiefs’ fan.)