jimmythegreek Posts:12648 Followers:392
On 12/10/2012 04:12 PM in NCAA Football


Welcome all to the third annual JTG BTB CFB headquarters! Over the last 3 years I have gone an unprecedented 67% (31-15) on my CFB regular season best bets which included at least one side every week. The last few seasons in the bowl games I have hit for 65% on the sides plays. You will not see me offer more than a lean on the totals but overall those averaged about the same playing the percentages. This is independently authorized and narrated by yours truly and is prohibited to be affiliated with any related analysis or promotions.

Much like during the regular season, you will see a write-up for all 35 bowl games along with a conclusion and pick ATS. I am always looking to repeat and exceed the success over the last few seasons by carefully and efficiently breaking down the matchups and providing valuable insight and information on each game taking place right up through the BCS bowls and eventual National title contest. Of course we are all here to make money especially during the most wonderful time of the year, so please feel free to share support, insight and plays amongst others.

The first bowls take place this Saturday December 15th, with the New Mexico and Idaho Potato bowls on tap. Best of luck to everyone and let's once again pick apart the books by having another successful bowl season!

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enzymex Posts:1732 Followers:61
12/10/2012 04:43 PM

Looking forward to your picks JTG. BOL this bowl season!

spooky Posts:4697 Followers:319
12/10/2012 06:03 PM

Greek and bowls. Its like Pasta on Sunday night at the Greek household.

Lets get it done buddy and have a great bowl season!!!

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jimmythegreek Posts:12648 Followers:392
12/11/2012 02:11 PM

New Mexico Bowl:
Nevada vs. Arizona
The bowl season kicks off with the seventh annual Gildan New Mexico Bowl on Saturday, Dec. 15, at 11 a.m. MT/1 p.m. ET. It pits Pac-12 member Arizona against Nevada from the Mountain West. In the first year of the Rich Rodriguez era, the Wildcats improved from 4-8 in 2011 to 7-5 this year and became bowl-eligible for the fourth time in the last five seasons. Their last bowl game was the 2010 Alamo Bowl (36-10 loss vs. Oklahoma State) and their last bowl victory was the 2008 MAACO Las Vegas Bowl (31-21 vs. BYU). Overall, Arizona is 6-9-1 in the postseason.

The Wildcats had an up-and-down season, winning three straight non-conference games to open the year with quality wins over Toledo and Oklahoma State, but three straight losses followed to open a tough PAC-12 portion of the slate. A 49-0 wipeout at Oregon was followed by a pair of 3-point setbacks to Oregon State and Stanford. Then the Wildcats posted their two most-impressive wins of the year with home victories over Washington and USC. Inexplicably, Arizona played dead the following week and was blown out 66-10 at UCLA. Wins over Colorado and Utah preceded a disappointing loss to rival Arizona State in the season finale.

Arizona also boasts the nation’s leading rusher, Ka’Deem Carey, who has tallied 1,757 yards. It is an interesting match-up with Nevada as the Wolf Pack has the nation's second-leading rusher in Stefphon Jefferson. Arizona is seventh in the country in total offense while Nevada is 11th. Like Arizona, Nevada enters the game with a 7-5 record in a season that began with a win at California, only to turn around and lose at home to USF the following week. All of Nevada's wins came against sub-.500 teams, but it did take Mountain West co-champs San Diego State to overtime and saw a late rally fall short by 6 points against Boise State in the season finale. This was Nevada's first season in the Mountain West after getting caught up in the swell of conference realignment and migrating from the WAC.

The Wildcats had success offensively this season and rank 17th in the nation in scoring at 37.3 points per game. Carey was a breakout star in the Pac-12 this season averaging an impressive 6.4 yards per carry and is the catalyst for the Wildcats on offense. Arizona averages 230 yards rushing and 291 yards passing per game. Quarterback Matt Scott put together a solid season with 3238 yards, 24 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Austin Hill (1189 yards) and Dan Buckner (741 yards) are Scott's top targets. Arizona's balance will make it a long day for the Nevada defense.

Nevada's offense made up for their poor defense scoring 37.0 points per game. The Wolfpack are a run first team ranking 7th in the nation with 260 yards rushing per game. Stefphon Jefferson carried the ball 341 times this season, second most behind Le'Veon Bell of Michigan State. Jefferson racked up 1703 yards and 22 touchdowns and quarterback Cody Fajardo ran for 981 yards and 11 scores. Fajardo threw the ball pretty well completing 66% of his passes for 2,530 yards.

The Wildcats' defense struggled to keep opponents of the board this year. Arizona ranks 103rd in the nation in scoring defense giving up an average of 34.3 points per game. Like the Wolfpack, Arizona failed to generate a pass rush this year and only picked up 16 sacks in 12 games. I would expect the Wildcats to focus on shutting down the run and force Nevada to beat them through the air.

Both teams for the most part have been an enigma all season on defense. Both offenses are likely to go up and down the field. I expect nothing less than a shootout when the smoke clears, but with neither team showing the consistency to finish off opponents, expect a close contest either way with a comfortable lean to the over. The Wolfpack keep things close and an outright win certainly isn't out of the question.

The pick: Nevada +11
1.5 gyros

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mojo822 Posts:583 Followers:6
12/12/2012 11:35 AM


okwyme44 Posts:15 Followers:1
12/13/2012 05:10 PM

fresno st. was favored here last year by about the same spread, wyoming,out of nowhere, won heads up. look for easy cover by nevada

jimmythegreek Posts:12648 Followers:392
12/14/2012 04:33 PM

Idaho Potato Bowl:
Utah St vs. Toledo:
Coming off the most successful regular season in school history, Utah State hopes this trip to the blue turf in Boise goes better than last year's experience. Standing in the way of its first postseason victory in 19 years is a Toledo team seeking its first 10-win season in more than a decade. Riding a six-game winning streak, the No. 18 Aggies look for some redemption in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl against the Rockets on Saturday.

A year ago, Utah State won its last five regular-season games to earn its first bowl trip since losing to Cincinnati in the 1997 Humanitarian Bowl in Boise. The location was the same last Dec. 17 as the Aggies were in good position for their second-ever bowl victory, leading Ohio by 13 late in the third quarter, but they lost 24-23 on a touchdown with 13 seconds to play. Utah State (10-2) used that defeat as motivation, and after setting a school record for victories while winning its first outright conference title since 1936, the team returns to the Potato Bowl looking to close the deal.

Winners in 15 of 18, the Aggies went 6-0 in league play to win the Western Athletic Conference championship in their final season before joining the Mountain West. Utah State's two losses were 16-14 at Wisconsin and 6-3 at BYU. Though Utah State's only bowl victory in seven tries came over Ball State in the 1993 Las Vegas Bowl, it has reason to be confident heading into this contest. Looking to win seven straight in a season for the first time since 1965, the Aggies have outscored their last six opponents 269-108.

Senior Kerwynn Williams has averaged 7.6 yards per carry during the six-game win streak and led the WAC with 1,277 rushing yards while scoring 17 touchdowns - 12 on the ground. He's recorded three straight 100-yard games, averaging 130.7 during that stretch. Sophomore quarterback Chuckie Keeton ran for 527 yards and seven TDs while finishing as the 13th-rated passer in the FBS. He completed 67.7 percent of his throws for 3,144 yards with 27 touchdowns and nine interceptions.

Keeton was sacked just six times over the final six games while the Utah State defense totaled 25, including 13 in a 49-27 win over No. 24 San Jose State on Oct. 13. The Aggies finished among the national leaders in sacks (39), points allowed (15.4 per game) and total defense (322.7 ypg). The preseason favorite to win the Mid-American Conference West title, Toledo beat then-No. 21 Cincinnati 29-23 on Oct. 20 as part of an eight-game winning streak. That run ended with consecutive losses to Ball State and Orange Bowl-bound Northern Illinois as the Rockets settled for third place in the West.

Expect David Fluellen, who ranks 12th in the nation with 1,460 rushing yards, to return after missing a 35-23 win over Akron on Nov. 20 with a sprained ankle. It's uncertain if versatile quarterback Terrance Owens will play after missing the regular-season finale with an ankle injury. Owens threw for a career-high 2,677 yards and ran for 381. Senior backup Austin Dantin was 29 of 35 for 327 yards and five TDs versus Akron. Junior Bernard Reedy ranks among the national leaders with 82 receptions for 1,051 yards and six touchdowns. The Rockets, however, have given up an average of 30.4 points over their last seven games and rank 108th in the FBS in total defense at 464.1 yards per game.

Utah State is better on both sides of the ball and has plenty of motivation as it tries to erase last season’s disappointing loss in this bowl game. The Rockets will have their hands full trying to move the ball against Utah State’s defense. The Aggies ranked 15th nationally in yards allowed (322.7 ypg) and points allowed (15.4 ppg). In addition to holding opponents to less than 330 yards a contest, Utah State was active around the line of scrimmage, recording 3.3 sacks per game. If you can slow down Toledo and make big plays on defense, the Aggies will have plenty of opportunities to score often with the benefit of short fields and plenty of gaps up front and in the Rocket secondary. Slight lean to the under 58.5.

The pick: Utah St -10 (bought half)
3 gyros

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jimmythegreek Posts:12648 Followers:392
12/15/2012 09:18 PM

2 winning sides, 2 winning totals leans. Now that's the way to start the bowl season! Back up for Thursday with a Poinsettia Bowl play!

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jimmythegreek Posts:12648 Followers:392
12/20/2012 01:22 PM

Pointsettia Bowl:
BYU vs. San Diego St.
For the second time in three years, San Diego State won't have to travel for a postseason game as it welcomes the Cougars to Qualcomm Stadium for the Poinsettia Bowl on Thursday night. The Aztecs (9-3) are back on their home turf after beating Navy 35-14 in this bowl two years ago, and being in familiar surroundings is giving them a sense of comfort.

Until BYU (7-5) became independent last season, it had shared a conference with the Aztecs since 1978. They'll meet for the first time since the Cougars won 24-21 in 2010, improving to 27-7-1 in the all-time series and 9-1 in the last 10 matchups.

Quarterback Adam Dingwell has kept San Diego State rolling since replacing injured senior Ryan Katz (ankle). The sophomore came off the bench to spark a win at Nevada then led the Aztecs to victories in all four of his starts, including a 21-19 upset at then-No. 19 Boise State on Nov. 3. Dingwell has completed 63.3 percent of his passes for 767 yards with eight touchdowns and four interceptions since Katz's injury. Adam Muema will help carry the load offensively after finishing the regular season with 1,355 rushing yards and 17 total TDs. The sophomore had career bests of 255 yards and four touchdowns on 26 carries in the Aztecs' most recent game, a 42-28 win at Wyoming on Nov. 24.

The Aztecs, however will encounter a stout Cougars defense that ranks third in the FBS overall (266.3 yards allowed per game) and second against the run (84.3). BYU's opponents have averaged just 14.7 points. BYU is making an eighth consecutive bowl appearance, winning the last three. Riley Nelson found Cody Hoffman for three touchdowns, including a 2-yard score with 11 seconds left to clinch a 24-21 victory over Tulsa in the 2011 Armed Forces Bowl. Hoffman, who has 16 catches for 259 yards and six TDs in two career bowl games, finished the regular season with 90 receptions, 1,134 yards and 11 touchdowns. He set a school record with five TD catches among his 12 receptions for 182 yards in a 50-14 win at New Mexico State in the regular-season finale Nov. 24.

That came with James Lark at quarterback, as Nelson sat out with a rib injury that continues to put his status in doubt. Lark's performance against the Aggies potentially created a tough decision for coach Bronco Mendenhall, as the senior completed 34 of 50 passes for 384 yards and six touchdowns in his first collegiate start. If he's under center again, finding success through the air versus the Aztecs should be tougher since they're allowing an average of just 164.0 passing yards in their last four games.

Both teams will start out a little flat but the Aztecs will probably get going faster. Look for SDSU to hang tight early but BYU will eventually pull away, no matter which quarterback is leading the way. Big plays will make a big difference and the Cougars will end up with one more of them, with the BYU defense making key stops to secure the win. Slight lean to the over 47 and buy if you must in case it comes down to special teams.

The pick: BYU -2.5 (bought half)
one gyro

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  • 12/21/2012 02:00 AM

    I'm off to a 3-0 start this year also in the bowl season. I didn't get my BYU play posted before the game started on the site tonight though. Great job!! Keep up the winning picks.

jimmythegreek Posts:12648 Followers:392
12/21/2012 12:23 PM

Thanks gamblershine and everyone else who followed along! We missed on the lean but a nice 4th quarter surge by the Cougs gave us the cash improving my bowl sides plays to 3-0 so far! I'll have some plays on the Beef O'Brady's Bowl this afternoon.

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