cnotes Posts:34934 Followers:38
On 12/01/2012 06:55 PM in NFL

Cnotes NFL December Best Bets !

December Records

November 30, 2012

Holiday jeer brings holiday cheer to moneymaking teams in the NFL this time of the year as it winds down the 2012 regular season this month.

And while the weather outside can be frightful, SU and ATS results can be delightful. Especially for a dozen teams whose sights are set on working through the holidays.

Let's examine some the very best and very worst team trends of NFL teams throughout the month of December, broken down into five major categories: Home, Away, Favorite, Dog and Division.


-- Good: For teams in contention, the NFL season starts after Thanksgiving, where each and every game really counts either to make the playoffs or work into the position they would desire to be at. One aspect is taking care of business at home and Houston and Seattle have done so this month of the year. The Texans are 14-6 ATS at Reliant Stadium and will have Indianapolis and Minnesota pay a visit.

Seattle can possibly secure a wild card spot with three home games and interestingly enough, all are division encounters. The home of the "12th Man" is 29-14 ATS at this location.

-- Keep an eye on: December is the time of year where the term "frozen tundra" really applies at Lambeau Field. The Green Bay Packers are 27-16 ATS and has three teams coming to the hallowed grounds, including what could be a frosty Sunday night affair versus Detroit.

-- Keep an eye on (Bad): The schedule-makers did not do the Buffalo Bills any favors, having just four home games until the final month of the season. The Bills might have the weather edge, but this seldom mattered with a 16-27 ATS mark.

Like the Bills, playing well is more about talent and St. Louis has come up short with a 15-25 spread record on the shores of the Mississippi River. The Rams will have a pair of opportunities to prove they will not fold with Jeff Fisher as coach.

It seems hard to comprehend New Orleans could be 17-31 ATS this month. When you consider before Drew Brees arrived, this was a moribund franchise. The Saints will see Carolina and Tampa Bay march into the Crescent City.


-- Bad: It almost does not seem possible Chicago could be 10-30 ATS in the final month of the year, when you think about how well they have played defense over the years, yet it's true. At least weather will not be part of the problems with trips to Minnesota, Arizona and Detroit.

Before Jim Harbaugh took over the reins, the last above average head coach San Francisco had was the NFL Network's Steve Mariucci (1997-2002), which laid the groundwork for the 49ers 15-30 ATS record. The Niners will have three chances to solve this conundrum, including a Sunday night dandy in New England.

-- Keep an eye on: If Cincinnati is going back to the playoffs, they will have to win on the road with three contests on the docket. The Bengals are a dismal 14-25 ATS and have games in San Diego and a pair in the Keystone State.

While many will think of Christmas trees and lights this month, Oakland Raiders fans know their team will tank on the road with a 16-29 ATS mark. After three straight home games, Da Raiders close at Carolina and at San Diego. Happy Holidays Oakland backers.


-- Keep an eye on (Good): For NFL bettors, Green Bay is the Mariano Rivera of closing the season in style at 40-22 ATS when dishing out points. The Packers will be favored in four of their final five outings in 2012.

-- Bad: One would surmise playing in the balmy south Florida weather would be an advantage, especially with the humidity sapping opposing team's strength. Well, it's not for Miami, who is a horrifying 18-41 ATS when in the role of favorite. Fortunately (unless you want to bet against them), the Dolphins will be doling out digits just to Jacksonville and Buffalo this month.

-- Keep an eye on: Dallas has long history of crumbling late in the season and this shows up on their spread record at 17-31 ATS. With this Cowboys club as dissonant as any, they could be favored up to three times the rest of the way.

This New York Jets team is headed for a crash landing. The Flyboys are a miserable 13-23 ATS as chalk and with home games against Arizona and San Diego, this should be the only two times they will be favored.


-- Keep an eye on (Good): In today's NFL, the Giants are solid wager when receiving points any time and they usually make it a December to remember with a 31-18 ATS mark. Expect New York to be underdogs at Atlanta and at Baltimore.

Seattle has been 'man's best friend' in the role of a dog at 38-20 ATS. For sure the Seahawks are catching points in the Windy City and might also be at Buffalo and home to the Niners.

Football bettors backing Carolina should have an ornament on their tree to celebrate how the Panthers deliver with a 25-13 ATS record to finish the year. The Cats should be seeing a few points at San Diego and at New Orleans and on Dec.9 when Atlanta returns to Charlotte.

-- Keep an eye on (Bad): The Bears and Raiders have already been mentioned as lousy bets away from home. Naturally, they play like dead tired dogs and Chicago is 17-33 ATS when assigned points and Oakland is 19-33 ATS. Watch to see how often this occurs.


-- Good: The Carolina Panthers are like the last present you open, which turns out to be precisely what you wanted. Carolina is a sweet 21-8 ATS versus NFL South opponents and still have Atlanta (Dec.9) and at New Orleans (Dec. 30) on the docket.

-- Keep an eye on: Philadelphia's play this season will test what their past has been like in NFC East December battles at 27-15 ATS, mostly under coach Andy Reid. With three division tilts left, these Eagles might be like the ghosts of Christmas's past when coached by Nick Skorich, Joe Kuharich, Jerry Williams and Mike McCormack (1961-75), when Philly fans learned to boo their 58-102-8 overall record.

Seattle is a wicked 24-14 ATS, and as mentioned above, the Seahawks have three division home games remaining.

-- Bad: Miami backers end up with coal in their stocking for Christmas when supporting their favorite team against division rivals at 14-30 ATS. Whether its teams like the Patriots and Bills in town this season, enjoying the warm weather or a chilly trip to New England on Dec. 30, it is all bad news for the Fins.

Below is a list of each team with their December/January (SU/ATS) records from last season, 2008-2010, and their schedule for the month.


Category 2011 2008-10 Week

TEAM SU ATS SU ATS 13 14 15 16 17

ARZ 4-1 3-2 7-6 6-7 @ NYJ @ SEA DET CHI SF

ATL 3-2 3-2 9-4 8-5 NO @ CAR NYG @ DET TB

BAL 4-1 2-3 9-4 8-4-1 PIT @ WSH DEN NYG @ CIN

BUF 1-4 1-4 4-9 5-8 JAX STL SEA @ MIA NYJ

CAR 3-2 3-2 7-6 8-5 @ KC ATL @ SD OAK @ NO

CHI 1-4 2-3 8-5 5-7-1 SEA @ MIN GB @ ARZ @ DET

CIN 2-3 1-3-1 7-6 8-5 @ SD DAL @ PHI @PIT BAL

CLE 0-5 4-1 4-9 5-8 @ OAK KC WSH @ DEN @ PIT

DAL 1-4 1-4 7-7 7-7 PHI @ CIN PIT NO @ WSH

DEN 2-3 1-4 3-11 4-9-1 TB @ OAK @ BAL CLE KC

DET 2-3 1-3-1 4-10 10-3-1 IND @ GB @ ARZ ATL CHI

GB 4-1 3-2 8-6 9-5 MIN DET @ CHI TEN @ MIN

HOU 2-3 2-2-1 9-6 7-7-1 @ TEN @ NE IND MIN @ IND

IND 2-3 4-1 11-3 8-6 @ DET TEN @ HOU @ KC HOU

JAX 2-3 3-2 4-11 4-11 @ BUF NYJ @ MIA NE @ TEN

KC 3-2 3-2 4-10 6-8 CAR @ CLE @ OAK IND @ DEN

MIA 3-2 4-1 7-7 7-7 NE @ SF JAX BUF @ NE

MIN 1-4 2-3 6-7 4-9 @ GB CHI @ STL @ HOU GB

NE 5-0 2-3 12-2 9-4-1 @ MIA HOU SF @ JAX MIA

NO 5-0 5-0 7-7 4-9-1 @ ATL @ NYG TB @ DAL CAR

NYG 3-2 4-1 6-8 6-8 @ WSH NO @ ATL @ BAL PHI

NYJ 2-3 2-3 7-7 6-8 ARZ @ JAX @ TEN SD @ BUF

OAK 1-4 1-3-1 7-7 8-6 CLE DEN KC @ CAR @ SD

PHI 4-1 4-1 10-4 8-6 @ DAL @ TB CIN WSH @ NYG

PIT 4-1 2-3 10-4 8-5-1 @ BAL SD @ DAL CIN CLE

SD 4-1 4-1 12-2 7-5-3 CIN @ PIT CAR @ NYJ OAK

SF 4-1 3-2 8-6 6-6-2 @ STL MIA @ NE @ SEA ARZ

SEA 3-2 3-2 5-9 7-7 @ CHI ARZ @ BUF SF STL

STL 0-5 1-3-1 2-12 6-8 SF @ BUF MIN @ TB @ SEA

TB 0-5 0-5 5-9 5-8-1 @ DEN PHI @ NO STL @ ATL

TEN 3-1 1-3-1 6-8 6-8 HOU @ IND NYJ @ GB JAX

WSH 1-3 2-2 3-8 4-6-1 NYG BAL @ CLE @ PHI DAL

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34934 Followers:38
12/01/2012 06:58 PM

Gridiron Angles - Week 13

November 30, 2012


-- The Bucs are 0-12 ATS (-12.4 ppg) since November 24, 1996 after a game as an underdog where they punted two or fewer times.


-- The Steelers are 12-0 OU (12.9 ppg) since January 2006 following a divisional game where the total was 36 or less.


-- Middle Tennessee St. is 14-0 ATS (12.4 ppg) since 2006 in non-Tuesday games coming off a 2-23 point win where they allowed less than 28 points.


-- Texas is 0-14 ATS (-11.3 ppg) since October 25, 2008 when facing a team which has a winning percentage of at least .700 which did not win or lose by more than 30 last game, if Texas allowed more than a TD last game and did not cover by 25-plus points.


-- Teams which are facing teams which have combined for at least 740 passing yards their last two games are 37-26-2 ATS. Active on Tennessee vs. Houston.


-- The Dolphins are 8-0 ATS (+10.2 ppg) since 1993 as a dog the week after a win in which they were losing at the end of the third quarter.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34934 Followers:38
12/01/2012 07:00 PM

Vegas Money Moves - Week 13

December 1, 2012

The Cincinnati Bengals were a team that almost every sharp bettor in Las Vegas held a ticket on to go UNDER 7 ½ season wins. After losing their fifth game of the year on Nov. 4 to the Denver Broncos, they looked to be well on their way to at least nine losses on the season with eight games remaining.
But since that Broncos game, the Bengals have busted out with a vengeance. They shocked bettors and the rest of the league with a dominant 31-13 home win over the Giants and have since won the last two weeks against the Chiefs and Raiders pushing their record to 6-5 with five games remaining. The two-team parlay with the Bengals covering the spread to the UNDER has hit the last three weeks.

There is no doubt about it, the Bengals are hot, and bettors have reacted to it. When the LVH Super Book posted the Chargers as three-point home favorites against the Bengals, it didn’t take long for the game to be pick ’em by Monday. And before long, the Bengals were 1 ½-point favorites, which is where the line currently sits.

However, the move on the Bengals isn’t just about them playing well, it’s about the Chargers looking awful. The Chargers have lost three in a row and six of their last seven games. They found a new way to lose last week giving up a desperation dump-off 4th and 29 play to the Ravens that allowed them to eventually tie and win the game.

November has typically been the month when Norv Turner saves his job, and it looked like we might be seeing some of the same this year when the Chargers ended a three game slide with a win against the Chiefs, but it’s been all downhill from there.

Here’s a look at some of the other moves of the week:

-- The big news Saturday morning was the suicide of Chiefs linebacker Jovan Belcher, who shot himself at the Chiefs practice facilities with coaches trying to talk him out of it. The question here is whether or not the game will be played. As far as we know, the Panthers are still on their way and the NFL hasn’t given any hint that the game will be cancelled. Several sports books took the game off the board with a few still dealing the game until final word is given. The Panthers had opened as three-point favorites and were bet up to -3.5 through Friday.

-- The Packers opened as 10-point home favorites against the Vikings Sunday night before getting blasted 38-10 by the Giants. The LVH reopened the game at -9.5 and Vikings money pushed the game all the way down to -7.5, where it’s been bouncing around on and off -8 for the past few days.

-- The Cardinals have lost seven games in a row after starting out 4-0, which is good enough to make bettors believe in the Jets this week. The Jets opened as 3-point home favorites and have been bet up to -5.

-- The Lions have won only one of their four games this season by more than four points, yet they opened as 4 ½-point home favorites against a scrappy Colts squad. Bettors thought the number was too light and bet the Lions up to -5.5. Good luck with that one.

-- Despite the Jaguars showing drastic improvements offensively the past two weeks with Chad Henne at quarterback, bettors bet the Bills up from 6-point home favorites to -6 ½.

-- The Patriots opened as 7-point favorites at Miami and hasn’t moved. But the total has, from 51 to 51.5. The Patriots have gone OVER the total in their past nine games after going UNDER in their first two. The Patriots to OVER two-team parlay combination has hit in three of the past four weeks.

-- The Texans opened as 5 ½-point road favorites at Tennessee and have been bet up to -6.5, despite looking very sluggish defensively in their past two games, allowing 68 points combined to the Jaguars and Lions.

-- The game of the week looks to be the Broncos and Buccaneers, where Denver opened as a 7-point favorite and has stood still. The total has been bet up from 50 ½ to 51. The Broncos have gone OVER the total in five of their last games while the Bucs just had their seven-game OVER streak stopped last week against the Falcons, by four points.

-- No Ben Roethlisberger means Charlie Batch, which has taken this game -- almost always -3 or -3 ½ -- all the way to Ravens as 7 ½-point home favorites. The Steelers offense has typically been able to roll well when Big Ben is out, but five turnovers last week gave the Browns short fields to work with against the Steelers defense. Batch looked very rusty and was off target all game.

-- The Browns are a 1 ½-point favorite at Oakland and the line hasn’t moved. Can’t remember when the last time Cleveland was laying points on the road.

-- The Cowboys were posted as 7 ½-point home favorites over the Eagles on Sunday night. Bettors actually bet the Eagles pushing the game to 7. But after the Eagles loss on Monday night, the LVH reopened the Cowboys as 9-point favorites on Tuesday morning and were quickly bet to -10. They are currently -10.5. The Eagles will be without offensive weapons Michael Vick, LeSean McCoy and DeSean Jackson. The Cowboys have been over a touchdown favorite twice this season and failed to cover each time.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34934 Followers:38
12/01/2012 07:02 PM

Week 13 Tips

December 1, 2012

The playoff races in both conferences are starting to take shape heading into the final month of the regular season. The Falcons, Giants, 49ers, Packers, and Bears seem like locks to make the NFC playoffs, while the AFC postseason will feature the Patriots, Texans, Broncos, and Ravens. Who will fill the remaining spots? Several teams trying to make a case for the postseason hit the road, including a Seattle team that needs to win on the road to help its cause.

Seahawks at Bears (-3 ½, 37 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

When Pete Carroll's team plays in the Pacific Northwest, the Seahawks seem unbeatable (at least this season). Seattle owns a 5-0 SU/ATS mark at CenturyLink Field, but is just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS on the highway following last Sunday's last-second defeat at Miami as three-point favorites. The Seahawks travel to the Windy City this Sunday for a showdown with a Bears' club that is trying to stay healthy, while fighting out a division title with the Packers.

Matt Forte rushed for just 42 yards in last week's blowout of the Vikings at home, but the Pro Bowl running back has been dealing with an ankle injury all season. Forte is expected to play again on Sunday, while the same can't be said for Pro Bowl return man Devin Hester, who suffered a concussion against Minnesota and is not expected to suit up this week. The Bears are just 2-4 ATS the last six games, including three ATS defeats at Soldier Field to the Panthers, Lions, and Texans.

This is Seattle's fourth trip to Chicago since 2010, including a playoff loss in January 2011 as double-digit underdogs. However, the Seahawks have managed a pair of regular season triumphs at Soldier Field, as Seattle knocked off Chicago last December in this same pointspread role, but Jay Cutler missed the game with a thumb injury. The offense has been a problem on the road this season, scoring 16 points or less in four of six away contests.

Vikings at Packers (-7 ½, 46 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

In spite of last week's blowout loss to the Bears, the Vikings can get right back in the NFC North race with a victory at Lambeau Field. Minnesota enters Sunday's action just one game behind Green Bay for second place, as a victory can be vital for tiebreaker purposes for a potential playoff berth. However, the Vikings will likely be without star receiver Percy Harvin, who is suffering from an ankle injury.

The Packers are fresh off their most humiliating defeat of the season to the Giants last Sunday night, 38-10, snapping a five-game winning streak. Also, Green Bay has cashed the 'under' in three of four contests when the total closes at 50 or higher. Mike McCarthy's club has eclipsed the 'over' in five of seven games with the total below 50, which is the case for Sunday.

Minnesota was swept by Green Bay last season, as the Vikings have dropped four consecutive meetings with the Packers. Leslie Frazier's squad hasn't helped out backers recently as Minnesota owns a 1-4-1 ATS record the last six games, including an 0-3 ATS mark away from home.

Colts at Lions (-5, 51) - 1:00 PM EST

This line would have been potentially higher before the season started with Indianapolis' transition to Andrew Luck and Detroit's run to the postseason in 2011. However, the Lions are still favored in spite of being outside the NFC playoff picture, while the Colts are staring a spot to play in January. Indianapolis has put together an impressive 7-4 record with former Stanford quarterback at the helm, as the Colts have won five games by six points or less.

The Colts are also helping backers with a 7-4 ATS ledger, but own a 1-3 ATS mark as a road underdog this season. Indianapolis held off Buffalo last week, 20-13 as two-point favorites, even though the Colts scored just one offensive touchdown in the victory. The task hasn't been easy in interconference action for Indianapolis, but it has won two of three games (all as underdogs) against the NFC North.

The momentum from last season's playoff push has failed to carry over in the Motor City as the Lions are riding a three-game skid heading into Sunday. Detroit lost another close game to a playoff squad in an overtime setback to Houston on Thanksgiving, 34-31, but Lions' backers were thankful by receiving 3 ½ points as a home 'dog. As a home favorite, the Lions own a disappointing 1-4 ATS record, while going 3-7 ATS as 'chalk' at Ford Field since last October.

Buccaneers at Broncos (-7, 50 ½) - 4:05 PM EST

In probably the most entertaining matchup of the day, Tampa Bay tries to keep up its exciting brand of football against Peyton Manning and the red-hot Broncos. Denver is inching closer to a division title in the mediocre AFC West at 8-3 after holding off Kansas City in an ugly 17-9 triumph as 10-point road favorites. Tampa Bay lost another close game at home to a division rival following a 24-23 defeat to Atlanta last Sunday to fall to 6-5.

The Bucs have been the biggest pointspread surprise in the league with Greg Schiano at the controls, putting together an 8-2-1 ATS mark. Tampa Bay had a streak of seven straight 'overs' snapped in the loss to Atlanta, as the total closed at 50 ½. However, the Bucs are the league's lone unbeaten team against the number on the road by covering all five away contests.

The Broncos are on cruise control right now, as Manning overcame two early losses to the Falcons and Texans to win seven of the last eight games. Most of that damage has been done on the highway, as the Broncos have won four times during this six-game hot streak away from Sports Authority Field. The key has been the offense, topping the 30-point mark five times in the last six contests, resulting in a 4-2 mark to the 'over.'

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34934 Followers:38
12/01/2012 07:11 PM

NFL Week 13 Preview: Buccaneers at Broncos



Kickoff: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Denver -7, Total: 50.5

Denver tries to extend a long win streak when it faces a Tampa Bay team that leads the NFL with an 8-2-1 ATS mark on Sunday.

The Broncos are in search of their seventh SU win in a row, though they’ve failed to cover in their past two games. Both of these teams have red-hot quarterbacks. Peyton Manning has a 108.2 rating, 294 passing YPG, 15 TD and 5 INT during the win streak, and the running game didn’t miss a beat with Willis McGahee out, as Knowshon Moreno ran for 85 yards on 20 carries at Kansas City. For the Bucs, Josh Freeman has a 104.1 passer rating, 16 TD and 3 INT over Tampa’s past seven games, but the Bucs defense hasn’t held up of late. They’ve allowed 400-plus yards of offense in three of their past four, and four of their past six games.

Can the Broncos win for the seventh straight week? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Freeman has played pretty well in his past three road games, leading his team to 35.0 PPG in the three wins and throwing for 757 yards (252 YPG), 8 TD and 2 INT. Top WR Vincent Jackson (959 rec. yds, 7 TD) has been strong in the past two games with 190 yards on 11 catches. He is very familiar with the Denver defense having played in San Diego for seven seasons before coming to the Bucs. But he has been limited, big-time, by future Hall of Fame CB Champ Bailey over the past eight meetings, catching just 28 passes for 380 yards (47.5 YPG) and 1 TD during these matchups with the Broncos. Tampa needs to get RB Doug Martin back on track to stay in this game. Martin had just 50 yards on 21 carries (2.4 YPC) in last week's loss to Atlanta, a huge drop from the 148 rushing YPG on 6.1 YPC he averaged during his team's four-game win streak preceding the Falcons defeat. But no matter what the game plan is, Tampa knows it will have to be sharper than usual, as Denver ranks fifth in the NFL in passing defense (210 YPG allowed) and ninth in rushing defense (99 YPG). The Bucs have done a good job with ball protection though, committing just four turnovers combined in the past six games.

Manning has been outstanding in the thin air, posting a 110.2 passer rating and a 13-to-1 TD/INT ratio in his five home starts. He's had identical 101.9 ratings in two career meetings with Tampa Bay, but hasn't faced the Bucs since 2007. One player Manning doesn't have to worry about on Sunday is Tampa's top cornerback, Eric Wright, who was suspended four games for using performing-enhancing substances. That should allow both WRs Demaryius Thomas (1,015 rec. yds, 6 TD) and Eric Decker (685 rec. yds, 8 TD) to have huge games against a Bucs passing defense allowing a league-high 315.5 passing YPG. The running game could certainly struggle more this week though, as Tampa Bay leads the NFL with 81.5 rushing YPG allowed, holding eight of 11 opponents under 100 rushing yards this year. Another problem area is that Denver's offense has not had a single turnover-free game in 2012. The Broncos have 21 giveaways this season, including 14 over the past seven contests. The Bucs have generated 11 takeaways in the past five weeks, so they are perfectly capable of doing some damage here.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34934 Followers:38
12/01/2012 07:14 PM

NFL Week 13 Preview: Eagles at Cowboys



Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -10, Total: 43

The banged-up Eagles limp into Dallas on Sunday night trying to earn their first win since September.

The Cowboys have a chance to finish the season sweep of their rivals who have dropped seven straight games and are 1-9-1 ATS this season. Dallas gets extra rest coming off a Thanksgiving Day loss, while Philly has a short week and will not have QB Michael Vick and RB LeSean McCoy available as they recover from concussions. Philly's top WR DeSean Jackson (ribs) is also out for the season. Dallas has a ton of defensive injuries, but it appears that top RB DeMarco Murray (foot) will return to the field for the first time since Week 6. The Cowboys pulled away from the Eagles in Philly in their Week 10 matchup, taking advantage after Vick went down and was replaced by rookie Nick Foles. Dallas got two defensive touchdowns and a punt return TD in the fourth quarter of a 38-23 win, with Foles turning it over twice in the fourth and having another pick-six called back on a penalty.

Can the Cowboys beat their division foe by double-digits? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Foles is coming off a strong performance against Carolina, completing 16-of-21 passes (76%) for 119 yards, 0 TD and 0 INT. He also took just one sack for the entire game. As happy as the Eagles coaching staff was to see this great accuracy, they were tickled pink about the way Bryce Brown filled in for the injured McCoy. Brown rushed for 178 yards on just 19 carries (9.4 YPC) with two touchdowns, coming from 65 and 5 yards out. However, he did lose two fumbles and gained just 2.8 yards per catch with 11 yards on four receptions. With McCoy and Jackson both out, Brown will once again be the focal point of this offense. When Foles drops back, he will be looking mainly for WR Jeremy Maclin, who has 376 yards and 4 TD in the past six meetings with Dallas. The Cowboys' defense has been sound in both areas, ranking ninth in the NFL in passing defense (218 YPG) and 13th against the run (111 YPG). However Washington was able to rush for 142 yards on 4.7 YPC and throw for 295 yards and 4 TD in its Thanksgiving Day win in Big D. Notable injuries to the Dallas defense include LBs Sean Lee (toe, out) and Bruce Carter (elbow, out), NT Jay Ratliff (groin, doubtful), CB Orlando Scandrick (hand, out) and S Charlie Peprah (foot, questionable).

Tony Romo has been up-and-down in his career versus the Eagles, winning six of 11 starts and throwing for 2,449 yards (223 YPG), 15 TD and 11 INT. He posted a 122.1 passer rating three weeks ago in Philadelphia, completing 19-of-26 passes (73%) for 209 yards, 2 TD and 0 INT. This season Romo has been much worse at Cowboys Stadium (72.7 rating, 6 TD, 12 INT, 18 sacks) than on the road (102.8 rating, 10 TD, 3 INT, 8 sacks). He may not have the services of WR Miles Austin (hip), but he has plenty of weapons left, mainly WR Dez Bryant and TE Jason Witten. Bryant caught three passes for 87 yards and a TD in the Week 10 meeting, and Witten has 49 receptions over the past five games, including eight against Philly. Murray has faced the Eagles just once in his career, rushing for 74 yards on just eight carries (9.3 YPC). If he's unable to carry a full workload, Felix Jones showed he's plenty capable of running over this Philly squad, rushing for 71 yards on 16 carries (4.4 YPC) and catching three passes for 22 yards and a touchdown in the Week 10 meeting. The Eagles defense has been decent in 2012, allowing 228 passing YPG (14th in NFL) and 118 rushing YPG (18th in NFL). But they have failed to force a single turnover in the past three games, a big reason why they have allowed 99 points during this span.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34934 Followers:38
12/01/2012 07:15 PM

NFL Week 13 Preview: Vikings at Packers



Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Green Bay -7.5, Total: 46.5

Minnesota looks for a rare win over a division rival when it visits Green Bay on Sunday.

The Packers are 9-3 SU (8-4 ATS) in this series since 2006, winning four in a row SU over Minnesota (3-1 ATS). But Green Bay is just 2-3 ATS at home this year. The Vikings are 1-4 SU and ATS on the road, including three straight double-digit losses. They fell 45-7 at Lambeau Field a year ago, with QB Christian Ponder going 16-for-34 for just 190 yards. Ponder will be missing top WR Percy Harvin (ankle) on Sunday, while the Packers' best receiver, Greg Jennings (abdominal surgery), is set to play for the first time since Week 4.

Can the Packers cover this big spread against their NFC North foe? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Ponder completed just 43.9% of his throws in two games against Green Bay last year, but he kept his team close last October with 2 TD passes in a 33-27 home loss. But in his past two road games (at Seattle and Chicago), he's thrown for a pathetic 3.4 yards per pass, needing 65 attempts to gain 222 yards. However, Green Bay's pass defense has not been good (22nd in NFL, 244 YPG allowed) and it will be missing its two best players in the secondary -- CB Sam Shields (shin) and S Charles Woodson (collarbone). Without Harvin on the field, Ponder will continue to rely on TE Kyle Rudolph (7 TD this year) and rookie WR Jarius Wright, who was targeted 10 times last week. He also used Adrian Peterson heavily in the passing game with seven targets. Although the Packers have a quality run-stop unit (104 YPG allowed, 11th in NFL), they have major injury woes with LBs Clay Matthews (hamstring, out) and Terrell Manning (shoulder, questionable), and DLs Ryan Pickett (quad, questionable) and C.J. Wilson (knee, doubtful) all banged up. Peterson has been bothered by a shoulder injury, but that won't prevent him from getting his typical heavy workload. He has usually run well in this series with 1,033 yards (5.1 YPC) and 7 TD in 10 career meetings. A heavy dose of Peterson should also keep turnovers in check, an area of weakness for the Vikings who have 2+ giveaways in six of the past seven contests.

Packers QB Aaron Rodgers is coming off his worst game since September, completing just 14-of-25 passes for 219 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT in the 38-10 loss to New York. But playing the Vikings are just what the doctor ordered, as he's thrown for 2,172 yards (272 YPG, 8.7 YPA), 19 TD and just 3 INT in eight career starts in this series. He's thrown 11 TD and 0 INT in the past three meetings with Minnesota. Jennings has scored a touchdown in each of the past five games versus the Vikings, totaling 486 yards and 7 TD. Rodgers also has three other great receivers at his disposal in Jordy Nelson (team-high 648 rec. yds), Randall Cobb (team-best 58 catches) and James Jones (team-high 8 TD catches). This talent has helped mask the weak running game (3.8 YPC) that ranks 23rd in the NFL with 101 rushing YPG. The top two backs of James Starks (3.4 YPC) and Alex Green (3.1 YPC) have combined for zero touchdowns over 153 carries as neither one has emerged as a capable featured back. The Vikings defense has been average in both areas, ranking 13th against the pass (225 YPG) and 15th in rushing defense (112 YPG).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34934 Followers:38
12/01/2012 07:17 PM

NFL Week 13 Preview: Giants at Redskins



Kickoff: Monday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -2.5, Total: 51

A pair of NFC East teams coming off huge confidence building wins will close out Week 13 when the Giants visit the Redskins on Monday night.

Eli Manning snapped out of a slump by throwing for 249 yards and 3 TD in last week’s blowout win over the Packers. The Redskins have also completely snapped out of a midseason funk, topping 30 points each of the past two weeks. In these teams’ first meeting in Week 7, Robert Griffin III and the Redskins offense torched the Giants for 480 yards of offense, including a go-ahead TD with less than two minutes left. The Giants avoided an upset thanks to an Eli Manning-to-Victor Cruz 77-yard TD with a little more than a minute to go. Washington has covered in its past four meetings with New York (2-2 SU), but is just 3-10 SU (5-7-1 ATS) versus New York since 2006.

Can the Redskins close the gap in the race for the NFC East crown? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Manning is 11-5 versus the Redskins in his career with 224 passing YPG, but he's thrown more interceptions (15) than touchdowns (13) over this span. However, this Redskins team is allowing the 2nd-most passing yards in the NFL (301 YPG) and Manning's 337 passing yards against them in Week 7 was the most he's ever had in this series. Cruz was the hero in that most recent meeting, as his 77-yard TD gave him 131 yards on seven catches for the game. Manning's other starting wideout, Hakeem Nicks, is starting to find his groove after a mostly injury-riddled season, catching 14 passes for 152 yards and a touchdown over the past two games. While New York's air attack appears to be in fine shape, their ground game was dealt a real blow with RB Andre Brown (8 TD in 10 games) breaking his leg in last week's win. That puts more pressure on starting RB Ahmad Bradshaw (733 rush yds, 5 TD), who has been slowed by a foot injury for the past month. The good news is that he has rushed for 4.0 YPC and 7 TD in his past seven meetings with the Redskins. Rookie RB David Wilson (4.3 YPC this year) may see some significant carries in this game, but Washington's run-stop unit is quite stingy, allowing just 89 rushing YPG this year (3rd in NFL). New York also has some offensive line injuries with C David Baas (shoulder) and OT David Diehl (shoulder) both questionable for Monday's game.

Griffin III has been unbelievable in his past two games, both wins over division foes Philadelphia and Dallas, completing 33-of-42 passes (79%) for 504 yards (12.0 YPA), 8 TD and just 1 INT. He's also rushed for 113 yards on 5.9 YPC. In the Week 7 matchup with New York, he threw for 258 yards (71% completions, 9.2 YPA) and ran for 89 yards on 9.9 YPC. Griffin hasn't been the only outstanding offensive rookie in Washington, as RB Alfred Morris has 982 rushing yards (4.7 YPC) and six touchdowns. He ran for 113 yards in last week's win in Dallas, marking his fourth game of 110+ rushing yards in his past eight games. It hasn't been just the youth going wild for the Redskins though, as 33-year-old WR Santana Moss has caught 5 TD passes over the past five games. He also has 1,048 yards and 11 TD in 16 career meetings with the Giants, whose passing defense is usually much better than they are this year (253 passing YPG allowed, 25th in NFL). New York's rushing defense is right at the middle point of the league, ranking 16th with 114 YPG allowed. Although Washington hurt itself by committing four turnovers against the Giants in Week 7, the team has just one turnover combined in four games since.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34934 Followers:38
12/01/2012 07:21 PM

Packers Host Vikings In Key NFC North Matchup

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 12/2/2012 at 1:00 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Green Bay -9½, O/U 47
Television: FOX

Minnesota Vikings: The Vikings (6-5 straight-up, 4-6-1 against the spread) are coming off a 28-10 loss at Chicago as 6½-point underdogs. They now trail the Bears by two games in the NFC North and the Packers by one. Minnesota is still firmly in the playoff chase but needs to solve its road woes at 1-4 SU and ATS this year. Quarterback Christian Ponder has struggled the last five games, completing just 56.4 percent of his passes compared to 68.6 percent in his first six. Star running back Adrian Peterson leads the NFL in rushing (1,236 yards) and needs to take the pressure off Ponder this week. Peterson’s shoulder injury appears fine, but he’s still in Coach Leslie Frazier’s doghouse after missing the team bus last week.

Green Bay: The Packers (7-4 SU, 5-6 ATS) had a five-game winning streak snapped last week with a 38-10 blowout loss at the Giants. They now return to the comfy confines of Lambeau Field, where they have won four straight (2-2 ATS). Green Bay is expected to get receiver Greg Jennings (groin) back for the first time since September, but his snaps should be limited (click to check updated NFL injury report). His return will help the passing game while the running game has not been much help (100.7 yards per game, ranked 23rd). The pass defense is ranked 22nd (244.3 ypg) but will be without sack artist Clay Matthews Jr. again. This is the first meeting between the teams this year. Green Bay has won four in a row (3-1 ATS) against the Vikes, and the "over" is 7-1 in the last eight encounters.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34934 Followers:38
12/01/2012 07:22 PM

Eagles Look To Snap Losing Streak Against Cowboys

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 12/11/2012 at 8:20 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Dallas -9, O/U 43
Television: NBC

Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles (3-8 straight-up, 1-9-1 against the spread) are in an absolute freefall having lost seven straight. The latest debacle was a 30-22 loss to Carolina on Monday night as 3-point home ‘dogs. They’re now 0-6 ATS in their last six. Coach Andy Reid is likely gone at the end of the season, and he seems to have done a desperation move in cutting veteran defensive end Jason Babin on Tuesday. The injury news isn’t any better for Philly with DeSean Jackson (ribs) out for the season, and quarterback Mike Vick and running back LeSean McCoy are both doubtful with concussions (click for latest NFL injury report). Rookie QB Nick Foles isn’t left with many weapons or a capable offensive line. He has one touchdown versus three picks in three games to go along with a 65.3 passer rating.

Dallas Cowboys: Dallas (5-6 SU, 4-7 ATS) is well-rested in last playing on Thanksgiving, a disappointing 38-31 home loss to Washington as 3½-point favorites. The Cowboys are still alive in the NFC playoff chase despite their record, but this is certainly a must-win game. They really need to get their running game going, with explosive back DeMarco Murray (foot) upgraded to probable after missing the last six games. Quarterback Tony Romo was forced to throw the ball 62 times last game against Washington with just 35 team rushing yards. There is also injury news on defense with linebacker Bruce Carter (elbow) gone for the year. Inside backer Sean Lee was already lost earlier this season. The Eagles and Cowboys met a few weeks ago on Nov. 11 with Dallas getting a 38-23 road win. Vick was hurt in that game with Foles making his NFL debut.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: