cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
12/28/2012 07:49 PM

NFL Week 17 Preview: Packers at Vikings



Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
Line: Green Bay -3, Total: 46

Green Bay tries to complete a perfect December when it visits playoff-hopeful Minnesota on Sunday.

The Packers can clinch a first round playoff bye with a win, while the Vikings can clinch a postseason berth with a victory. The Packers have trounced the Vikings of late, beating them five in a row SU (4-1 ATS). That included a 23-14 victory at Minnesota earlier this month at Green Bay, a game in which the Packers were desperately looking for a workaround with their patchwork offensive line. Green Bay has also won all three of its games since then, including last week’s 55-7 blowout of Tennessee. The Vikings’ best hope is once again Adrian Peterson, who had 210 rushing yards in the Week 13 loss to the Packers. But Minnesota has won all three games since that defeat.

Can the Vikings finally end their series losing skid to the Packers? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Green Bay has some good news on the injury front, as it appears both WR Jordy Nelson (hamstring) and RB Alex Green (concussion) will return to the field this week. However, the status is still uncertain for WR Randall Cobb (ankle). There is nothing uncertain about how well Aaron Rodgers plays indoors, as he has thrown for 288 YPG, 14 TD and 2 INT in his four dome games in 2012. Even with the uncertainty surrounding Cobb and Nelson, Rodgers can still lean on WRs James Jones and a finally-healthy Greg Jennings as reliable options to throw the football to. Jones has 13 touchdowns this season and Jennings has owned the venue formerly known as the Metrodome, catching 14 passes for 299 yards and 4 TD in his past two trips to Minnesota. The Packers backfield has been a walking wounded this year, but veteran Ryan Grant was a great find on the waiver wire, as he racked up 114 total yards in last week's 55-7 laugher over Tennessee. The Vikings defense is not easy to run against though, as they allow 108 rushing YPG on 3.9 YPC, and just stuffed a great Texans run defense, holding them to 34 yards on 16 carries.

Peterson did not play during the final drive of last week's win in Houston due to a sore abdomen, but he will start on Sunday. He needs just 102 rushing yards to reach 2,000 for the season, and he has always run well against Green Bay (11 G, 1,243 yards, 113 YPG, 5.6 YPC, 8 TD). It also makes more sense for Minnesota to run the football with its team average of 5.4 YPC, which is nearly as good as its paltry 5.6 YPA from QB Christian Ponder. The second-year pro has been awful against the Packers in his young career, completing 45% of his passes for 528 yards (5.8 YPA), 3 TD and 5 INT in three meetings. With top WR Percy Harvin (ankle) out for the season, Ponder will look mostly for TE Kyle Rudolph who has four touchdowns over the past six games. Green Bay's pass defense is strong, surrendering just 218 passing YPG (6.0 YPA) this season. And it will be even stronger if S Charles Woodson (collarbone) is able to return to the field this week, which looks like it could happen.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
12/28/2012 07:51 PM

NFL Week 17 Preview: Bears at Lions



Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Chicago -3, Total: 44.5

Chicago tries to stay in the playoff hunt when it visits slumping Detroit on Sunday.

The Bears need to win and get some help to make the postseason. They’ve beaten the Lions SU in eight of their past nine meetings (4-4-1 ATS) including a 13-7 win at home in Week 7, in which they completely smothered the Detroit offense. The Lions have lost seven in a row SU (1-6 ATS), and they’ve struggled even more than usual lately. With their receiving corps ravaged by injuries, they’ve managed just 26 offensive points the past two weeks. The Bears snapped a three-game losing streak of their own with a win at Arizona last week. They’re 4-3 SU and ATS on the road.

Can the Lions end the Bears playoff hopes on Sunday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Chicago certainly has some injury concerns, but it appears that both RB Matt Forte (ankle) and LB Brian Urlacher (hamstring) will be able to play this week. Forte has dominated the Lions in his career, racking up 1,075 total yards and 7 TD in his past nine games against them. Urlacher hasn't played since Week 13, but he can only help an already-excellent defense that has a +16 turnover ratio and allows just 315 total YPG (5.1 yards per play). The Bears run defense was outstanding last week, holding the Cardinals to 29 rushing yards on 19 carries. Even with Forte not 100 percent, the duo of QB Jay Cutler and WR Brandon Marshall should be able to excel against a Detroit passing defense giving up 222 passing YPG. Marshall is finishing up a career year that has seen him pile up 113 receptions for 1,466 yards and 11 TD.

Detroit has been a terrible bet at home this year, going 1-5-1 ATS (2-5 SU) at Ford Field. But as long as WR Calvin Johnson is healthy, the Lions have a chance to win. He broke Jerry Rice's single-season receiving yardage record as part of his 11-catch, 225-yard breakout performance in Saturday's 31-18 defeat to Atlanta. Although Johnson has now gained at least 100 yards in eight straight games, he didn't find much room to operate against the Bears' top-notch secondary in Week 7, fishing with a season-low three catches and 34 yards. Despite Chicago's prowess in the passing game and ability to pick off passes, airing out the football is what Detroit does best. QB Matthew Stafford has thrown for an eye-popping 4,695 yards, and is just 3-5 yards away from becoming the first player ever to throw for 5,000 yards in back-to-back seasons.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
12/30/2012 11:48 AM

Week 17 Tips

December 29, 2012

All six playoff spots in the AFC are spoken for heading into Week 17, even though the seedings can change with different results. The NFC still has two postseason berths up for grabs going into the final week, as five clubs have an opportunity to make the playoffs. The Redskins and Cowboys hook up in Washington for the NFC East title, while the Vikings control their destiny for the final Wild Card berth in the NFC. We'll take a look at the three day games that have an impact on the NFC playoff race, starting with the big long shot in New Jersey.

Eagles at Giants (-7, 46) - 1:00 PM EST

Philadelphia was the league's biggest disappointment in 2011 and is a nominee for that same honor in 2012 with a 4-11 record. The Eagles can spoil New York's shot at returning to the postseason by pulling off the season sweep of their division rivals. The Giants started their Super Bowl run last season with a home victory over the Cowboys in Week 17 to qualify for the playoffs. The task isn't as easy this time around, as New York needs a win plus losses by Chicago, Minnesota, and Dallas just get to the Wild Card round.

The Eagles welcome back Michael Vick to the lineup after the quarterback has missed the last six games with a concussion. Vick led Philadelphia to a 19-17 triumph as a 1 ½-point favorite way back in Week 4, the last home victory for the Eagles. Since that win, the Eagles have covered three times in 11 tries, but all three ATS wins came away from Lincoln Financial Field.

The Giants have been outscored, 67-14 in road losses at Atlanta and Baltimore the last two weeks. The Ravens ran out New York, 33-14 as short home 'dogs last Sunday as Baltimore racked up 533 yards of offense. Tom Coughlin's club owns a 2-5 SU/ATS record the last seven weeks, while scoring 16 points or less in the previous four defeats. New York has been one of the top 'under' teams in the league by producing the 'under' 11 times this season, including in six of the last seven weeks.

Bears (-3, 45) at Lions - 1:00 PM EST

The only way to for Chicago to save its season is with consecutive road wins the final two weeks. The Bears completed the first obstacle with flying colors in a 28-13 blowout of the Cardinals as seven-point favorites, as Lovie Smith's defense scored a pair of touchdowns. Now, Chicago needs a victory at Ford Field, coupled with a Minnesota loss at Green Bay to qualify for the playoffs for the first time since 2010.

The Lions enter Sunday's contest trying to finish off a season to forget at 4-11 following last Saturday's blowout loss to Atlanta. Detroit, just one season removed from making the playoffs, has allowed at least 31 points in five losses during a seven-game skid, while losing three home games by four points or less. The Lions had plenty of opportunities in their last meeting at Chicago in Week 7, but committed a handful of turnovers in the red zone in a 13-7 loss.

Since starting the season at 7-1, the Bears have won just two of their previous seven contests. Chicago has covered only twice in this cold stretch with victories over Minnesota and Arizona. The Bears' offense can shoulder the blame, scoring 17 points or less in all six losses this season, as the only game in which they put up less than 17 was the victory over Detroit. The 'over' is 5-2 in Chicago's seven road games, as one of the 'unders' came with a 50 ½ total in a Week 2 loss at Green Bay.

Packers (-3 ½, 46) at Vikings - 4:25 PM EST

Green Bay needs a win to secure a first-round bye, while Minnesota goes for its fourth straight victory and a shot at the playoffs for the first time since 2009. The Vikings are staying alive thanks to solid road triumphs at St. Louis and Houston, including a 23-6 dismantling of the AFC South champion Texans as 7 ½-point 'dogs last week.

Minnesota has quietly turned into one of the league's best home squads with a 6-1 record at Mall of America Field, with the lone loss coming on a Thursday night in October to Tampa Bay. The Vikings own a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record as a home 'dog this season, including wins over the Bears, Lions, and 49ers. Leslie Frazier's team has dropped five straight meetings with the Packers dating back to 2009, as Green Bay is 3-0 SU/ATS the last three trips to Minneapolis.

The Packers were the talk of the NFL last season at 15-1, but fizzled out in a second-round playoff loss to the Giants. Green Bay has flown under the radar this season at 11-4, while winning nine of their last 10 games. In two of their four losses, Green Bay has squandered late fourth-quarter leads at Seattle and Indianapolis, as the Packers could have been the top seed in the NFC, but also may play the first weekend with a loss plus a San Francisco win. Mike McCarthy's team has hit the 'under' in five of the last six games, as you can blame Green Bay's offense for an 'over' in a 55-7 rout of Tennessee last Sunday.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
12/30/2012 11:51 AM

Total Talk - Week 17

December 29, 2012

Week 16 Recap

The ‘under’ went 9-7 last weekend and on the season the ‘under’ stands at 114-110-1. Like any other week, gamblers caught a couple second-half ‘over’ tickets, which helped the game outcome go ‘over’ as well. Oddsmakers had three totals listed at 40 points or less last Sunday and all three of those games jumped ‘over’ their numbers. It’s just something to think about as we head into Week 17, which is arguably the toughest week to handicap.

Meaningful or Meaningless

All of this week’s games are divisional battles, so we’ll provide a quick handicap of the entire afternoon board.

1:00 p.m. ET

Jets at Bills: These teams combined for 76 in Week 1 as the Jets won 48-28 at home. The total for this matchup is hovering around 39 points and it’s hard to see either club duplicate their offensive efforts from the opener. Both teams have been held to 17 points or less the past three weeks.

Ravens at Bengals: Even though these teams are in the playoffs, this game is meaningless. The Bengals are locked into the sixth seed and the Ravens are most likely the fourth seed unless they win and the Patriots lose. Baltimore routed Cincinnati 44-13 in Week 1.

Browns at Steelers: The Browns will go with third-stringer Thad Lewis (Duke Blue Devils) at QB, which could set up an ‘under’ look. The LVH sent out a total on Saturday of 34 ½ points. At home, the Steelers have watched the ‘under’ go 6-1 and only one team (San Diego) scored more than 13 points.

Texans at Colts: It looks like a go for all starters here, especially with home-field on the line for the Texans. Colts are locked into the fifth seed so you wonder if they pull starters if the game is out of hand. Houston just beat Indy 29-17 and the game barely went ‘under’ the closing number of 48. Make a note that the Texans have scored 43 and 29 points off a loss this season and they just got embarrassed by the Vikings (6-23) last Sunday.

Jaguars at Titans: Four of the last five encounters have gone ‘under’ in this series, including Jacksonville’s 24-19 win over Tennessee on Nov. 25. That total was 45, this week’s is 42.

Eagles at Giants: New York still has a shot for the playoffs and the Birds will go with Michael Vick at QB, which could be his last game with the team. High total (46) but hard to ignore that the Giants have surrendered 27, 34 and 33 points the last three weeks. Philadelphia’s defense is just as bad, allowing 30-plus in five of the last seven games.

Bears at Lions: Chicago beat Detroit 13-7 in a MNF affair in mid-October. This game could get chippy and a lot of trash talk has been spewing this week. The Bears’ offense has trouble scoring, yet the Lions allow a ton of points. At Ford Field, they haven’t held an opponent under 20 this season.

Buccaneers at Falcons: The line opened 47 and dropped to 46. How much playing time Atlanta’s first-stringers get is unknown. After a nice midseason run, the Bucs have scored a combined 34 points the last three weeks, all ‘under’ tickets.

Panthers at Saints: This is the highest total (54) for Week 17 and you would expect the ball to be rolled out for this matchup. The Saints are an offensive machine and against weak teams, they light up the scoreboard. Carolina has potential to score too and it did beat New Orleans 35-27 in Week 2. Something tells me that New Orleans, in particular Drew Brees, will be looking for revenge.

4:25 p.m. ET

Dolphins at Patriots: If Houston loses, then this game becomes important for New England. Otherwise, the Patriots could rest and get ready for their playoff game next week. New England has watched the ‘over’ go 6-1 at home. Snow and wind is expected in the area, which is always tough to handicap.

Packers at Vikings: Green Bay stopped Minnesota 23-14 in Week 12 and the closing total (47) wasn’t threatened. Lots of eyes will be on this game with AP’s charge at the rushing record. Vikings are on a 4-1 run to the ‘under’ and surprisingly, Green Bay has seen the ‘under’ go 6-2 in its last eight.

Chiefs at Broncos: The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight in this series and the games have been real ugly. Low total here and even though Peyton gets all the press, the Denver defense has been real good lately.

Raiders at Chargers: The Raiders will give Terrelle Pryor the shot at QB, which makes this game a little interesting. San Diego has scored 7, 13 and 13 in its last three home games, all easy ‘under’ tickets.

Cardinals at 49ers: San Francisco stopped Arizona 24-3 on the road in late October and the ‘under’ (37) cashed rather easily. The 49ers have been on an ‘over’ run (5-0) and the defense does look weak with DT Justin Smith.

Rams at Seahawks: St. Louis beat Seattle 19-13 in Week 4. The Seahawks are much improved team, especially on offense. The ‘over’ has cashed in five straight and seven of the last eight game for Seattle.

Line Moves

The smart money took it on the chin last week with a 2-4 record. Five of those moves leaned to the ‘under’ and that’s the case again this week. Here are all of the line moves of 1 ½ points or more at CRIS as of Saturday.

N.Y. Jets at Buffalo: Line opened 41 and dropped to 39
Miami at New England: Line opened at 49 ½ and dropped to 46
Baltimore at Cincinnati: Line opened at 43 and dropped to 41

Under the Lights

Last Saturday night the Falcons beat the Lions 31-18 and the game barely snuck ‘under’ the closing total of 50. Those who had the ‘under’ were fortunate since the Falcons settled for a late field goal and the Lions couldn’t score on the goal line at the end of the game. On Sunday, Seattle blasted San Francisco and cashed ‘over’ tickets for the fifth consecutive week. This season, the ‘under’ has gone 30-18 (63%) in primetime games.

Washington at Dallas: Three of the last four meetings in this series have gone ‘over’ the total, which includes the Redskins’ 38-31 road win over the Cowboys on Thanksgiving Day. What some might forget about that game is Dallas was winning 3-0 after the first quarter and then RG3 led the Washington offense to 28 unanswered points in the second quarter. The ‘Skins did whatever they wanted offensively and so did Dallas quarterback Tony Romo (441 yards). For this matchup, RG3 could still be nursing a knee injury. Last week he only ran twice and he’s averaging close to eight carries a game. Both teams come into this game with four of their last five games going ‘over’ the number. This line opened at 50 and dropped to 48 at a few outfits but is now hovering around 49 points. If you get both teams to 24, you’ll have a winner provided it doesn’t end in a tie. Considering the playoff implications, you could get a tight game but at the same time, neither team should lay down in the end either.

Fearless Predictions

For the third straight week, we’ve turned up in the red. Fortunately, we stopped some of the bleeding with the Jets team total under but the deficit was still $220. On the season, we’re in the black for $620 and looking ahead to the postseason. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck and Happy New Years to you and yours!

Best Over: Saints-Panthers 54
Best Under: Eagles-Giants 47
Best Team Total: Over 29 ½ Saints

Three-Team Total Teaser:
Over Saints-Panthers 43
Under Dolphins-Patriots 55
Under Falcons-Buccaneers 54 1/2

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
12/30/2012 11:54 AM

Vegas Money Moves - Week 17

December 29, 2012

We don’t have the type of drama for playoff positioning in Week 17 like most of us like to watch unfold, but you really can’t ask for much more when the Cowboys and Redskins are playing for all the marbles on Sunday Night Football. The Cowboys have to win or they’re out, but the Redskins could still get in with a loss and little help from the Packers and Lions.
By the time Sunday night’s game kicks off, the Redskins will know what they have to do. The real prize here is winning the NFC East, which is what is at stake here. Whoever wins gets a home game next week in the playoffs.

The Redskins opened minus-3 ½ (EVEN) and the number was pushed down to 3 by some Cowboys money, but the majority of the action from the public has been on the Redskins. Because of pure volume, the Redskins are back to their opening number of -3 ½ (EVEN).

The Redskins have covered the past five meetings with the Cowboys, including their 38-31 Thanksgiving Day win in Dallas, but this will be the first time in their last 10 meetings that the Redskins are favored. The last time occurred in 2007 and that game happened in the final week as well, but the Cowboys came in with a 13-2 record and the NFC locked up, so Dallas rested their starters for most of the game. The Redskins won and covered the nine-point spread, and ensured a playoff berth, which was their last postseason appearance.

Washington has won six games in a row and it would be a great story to see a team that started 3-6 make the playoffs, something that hasn’t happened since 1996. Coach Mike Shanahan remembers ‘96 well because it was those Jaguars, who barely made the playoffs -- thanks to a missed Morten Anderson missed chip shot in the closing seconds of Week 17 -- that beat his 13-3 Broncos in the divisional playoff game.

Everyone is talking about Robert Griffin III and their top ranked rushing offense, but few people are talking about the anxiety that Shanahan might be feeling right now. He was once called a genius when winning back-to-back Super Bowls with Denver, but that quickly wore off when John Elway retired and he went 1-3 in the playoffs over his final 10 years in Denver.

His final year in Denver saw his team fade in the final three weeks -- needing only one game to clinch a playoff berth -- and the Broncos lost all three. His first two seasons in Washington have been dismal, but now he’s on the verge of carving a new niche for his legacy with his pistol offense that creates big plays and he has the perfect field general to run it.

Dallas quarterback Tony Romo is also at a crossroads and has had the world questioning every part of his game, especially his heart. Romo has come up big for the Cowboys winning five of his last seven games and has thrown 17 touchdown passes to only three interceptions in his last eight games. But none of that matters if he doesn’t win Sunday night, which you could say is the biggest game of his career. He has a chance to rewrite the history books that already have him labeled as gutless when it counts the most.

The interesting aspect of this game could be that the Redskins will be guaranteed a playoff spot by the time the game begins. The Packers could beat the Vikings, just as the Lions could beat the Bears. How much different will the Redskins mindset be knowing they can still get in with a loss? It would seem to take a little bit of the edge off that has been driving them for the last six weeks to win in do or die situations.

Here’s a look at how some of the other Week 17 games have moved this week:

* The Bills got blasted in their season opener against the Jets, but things have changed dramatically since then. The Bills opened as 3 ½-point favorites and are now -3. Not too many bettors got excited about Mark Sanchez being named the starter for the Jets.

* The Patriots could be playing in snow Sunday which has dropped the total from 48 ½ to 46 for their game against the Dolphins. The Pats opened -10 and have been bet up to -10 ½.

* The Bengals opened -3 ½ (EVEN) and Ravens money has pushed the game down to -2 ½.

* The Steelers game has been of the board most of the week because of the Browns QB situation. When Thaddeus Lewis was announced as the starter the Steelers were posted at -10.

* The Texans are playing for home field throughout the playoffs, and they opened as four-point favorites at Indianapolis. That number was driven all the way to -7, but Colts money came in and it sits at -6.5.

* The Titans have been bet up from 4-point favorites against the Jaguars to -4 ½. The Titans are the last team the Jaguars beat.

* The Giants aren’t mathematically eliminated from the playoffs but they’re basically playing for nothing and the combination of that reality and Michael Vick returning has got some believing in the Eagles. The Giants went from -9 to -7.

* The Bears opened as three-point road favorites and Lions money has moved the Bears to -3 (EVEN). * The Packers have gone from -3 ½ road favorites to -3 (-120) at Minnesota. The Vikings are playing for a playoff berth and the Packers are trying to secure a first round bye.

* The Saints opened -4 ½ for their home game against the new and improved Panthers and it has been bet up to -5.

* The Broncos have stayed at -16.5 all week against the Chiefs. If Denver wins, they at least secure a first-round bye. If the Colts beat the Texans and Denver wins, they’ll have home field throughout the playoffs.

* Terrelle Pryor gets a shot at QB with the Raiders at San Diego, but the Chargers are still -9 ½. Pryor could give the Raiders a dimension they’ve been missing all year because he can make plays on his own when things break down, and they break down a lot with the Raiders.

* The 49ers have been bet from -15 ½ to -16 ½ for their game against the Cardinals. The 49ers can clinch the NFC West and perhaps a first-round bye with a win if the Vikings beat the Packers.

* The Seahawks need some help from the Cardinals to win the NFC West. Good luck with that. Seattle opened -10 and has been bet up to -11 against the Rams, a squad who hasn’t lost in divisional play and is 10-3 as an underdog this season. Seattle has scored 150 points in their last three games, but what does Pete Carroll do when he scoreboard watches and sees the 49ers winning 27-3 in the third quarter. Does he risk Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch playing late in the game?

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
12/30/2012 11:56 AM

Gridiron Angles - Week 17

December 29, 2012


-- The Chiefs are 12-0 ATS (12.2 ppg) since October 13, 2002 on the road following a game where they did not have a goal to go attempt.


-- The Broncos are 0-10 ATS (-9.4 ppg) since October 22, 2000 as a 7+ favorite when facing a team that has an average turnover margin of -1 or worse per game.


-- The Steelers are 13-0-1 OU (11.4 ppg) since December 20, 2007 as a favorite the week after in which their completion percentage was at least 10.2 points lower than their season-to-date average.


-- The Jaguars are 0-12 OU (-9.5 ppg) since October 29, 1995 as a road dog the week after as a dog in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average.


-- In Week 17, home teams when the line is within 3.5 points of a pick are 79-50-3 ATS. Active in five games this week.


-- The Bills are 16-0 ATS (+11.1 ppg) since 1993 when they are off a game in which they rushed for 135-plus yards, fumbled at least three times and lost at least one, as long as they scored at least ten points.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
12/30/2012 11:58 AM

SNF - Cowboys at Redskins

December 30, 2012

DALLAS COWBOYS (8-7) at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (9-6) Line & Total: Washington -3 (-120) & 48.5
Opening Line & Total: Redskins -3.5 & 50

Two of the league's most storied rivals meet on Sunday night to likely determine the winner of NFC East division when Dallas visits a red-hot Washington team seeking its seventh straight win. These teams met in Dallas on Thanksgiving Day, and the Redskins absolutely dominated. The final score was 38-31, but the Cowboys had no answers for Robert Griffin III and the game was not as close as that score would suggest.

Getting on the road could be good for the Cowboys though. They're 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS away from home this season. Washington has won three in a row at home, SU and ATS.

Griffin didn't quite seem 100 percent recovered from his knee injury last year, as he threw for 198 yards and ran for just four yards in a win at Philadelphia. Washington's other two NFC East foes have defended RG III much better the second time they faced him than they did the first time. The Eagles allowed four passing touchdowns and just one incompletion while allowing him to rush for 84 yards in the teams' first meeting, a 31-6 Washington blowout. The second time around, Griffin had just four rushing yards and less than 200 passing yards as Philadelphia outgained the Redskins by nearly 100 total yards in a game that wasn't decided until the final play. The Giants gave up 480 total yards to Washington, including 258 passing yards and 89 rushing yards to Griffin in the teams' first meeting, but then just 163 passing yards and 72 rushing yards (46 of which were on one play) to Griffin as the Redskins scored only 17 points in the teams' second meeting.

Dallas was a bit shell-shocked in its first meeting against Washington, falling behind 28-3 in the first half in a game in which RG III would end with more than 300 passing yards. Also consider that teams off a close home loss by 3 or fewer points are 29-11 ATS (73%) over the past 10 seasons in the second half of the year when the line is between +3 and -3.

The biggest mismatch this time around could be the Cowboys' third-ranked passing offense against the Redskins' 30th-ranked pass defense. The weak Washington secondary will be hard-pressed to stop a red-hot Tony Romo, who in his past eight games has 17 TD and only 3 INT while averaging 8 yards per attempt. Romo attempted 62 passes in the Thanksgiving Day loss to Washington, but this time around he has top RB DeMarco Murray to keep defenses honest. Murray missed that game with a sprained foot, but he's done a nice job since his return to action in December with 380 total yards and 3 TD in four games.

The Redskins have a great run defense though, ranking fifth in the NFL with 96 rushing YPG allowed. Another player in the midst of a hot streak is WR Dez Bryant, who has 808 yards and 10 TD during a seven-game scoring streak. His 12 TD catches on the year rank second in the NFL.

Griffin feels that his knee is in better shape this week than it was the previous Sunday against Philly when he carried the ball just two times. Now he's eager to improve upon his gaudy 104.1 passer rating (2nd in NFL) thanks to 20 TD passes and just 5 INT. This includes 6 TD passes and 0 INT in his past four home games.

If Griffin's mobility is still affected by his sprained knee, RB Alfred Morris perfectly capable of handling a heavy workload, ranking fourth in the league with 1,413 rushing yards. This includes 113 yards on 24 carries in the Thanksgiving Day meeting with Cowboys. The Dallas defense has slipped to 21st against the pass (240 YPG) and 17th against the run (115 YPG).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
12/30/2012 12:00 PM

NFL playoff scenarios: Week 17 hits and misses

Every spot in the AFC has been decided, while the NFC East and the conference’s last two berths are still up for grabs heading into the final weekend.

Here’s a look at Sunday’s games with playoff implications and the contests that don’t mean a darn thing.

Games with playoff implications:

Houston at Indianapolis
The Texans have clinched the AFC South and can earn home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win in Week 17.

Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants
This game is a must-win for the Giants, who also need help to earn a playoff berth.

Chicago at Detroit
The Bears need to take business in Detroit and hope Green Bay knocks off Minnesota in order to play January football.

Kansas City at Denver
Denver can earn a first-round bye with a win over the lowly Chiefs.

Arizona at San Francisco
The Niners can clinch the NFC West with a win.

St. Louis at Seattle
The Seahawks can clinch the NFC West with a win, combined with a San Francisco loss.

Green Bay at Minnesota
This is a must-win for both teams. Green Bay can clinch the No. 2 seed in the NFC and Minnesota needs a win to clinch a playoff berth.

Miami at New England
The Patriots hold the head-to-head tiebreaker with Denver and can earn the No. 2 seed in the AFC with a win over the Fish paired with a Broncos loss.

Dallas at Washington
The Redskins can clinch the NFC East with a win over the Cowboys, who also need a win to clinch the division. Dallas has been eliminated from wild-card contention.

Baltimore at Cincinnati
The Ravens were assured of a home playoff game after Sunday’s 33-14 triumph over the Giants and the Bengals punched their ticket to the postseason with a 13-10 victory over the Steelers.

Meaningless Games:

Cleveland at Pittsburgh

Jacksonville at Tennessee

N.Y Jets at Buffalo

Tampa Bay at Atlanta

Carolina at New Orleans

Oakland at San Diego

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
12/30/2012 12:01 PM

Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 17

Jets (6-9) @ Bills (5-10)-- Gang Green (-3.5) hammered Buffalo 48-28 in season opener, back in happier days for Jets; Bills turned ball four times (-3), gave up an average of 9.9 ypa to NJ offense that is now dysfunctional at best, turning ball over 18 times in last five games (-14, were +1 in first 10 games). McElroy makes first road start here. Buffalo lost three in row, seven of last nine games; they gave up 18 or less points in all five wins (5-1) but are 0-9 allowing more than 18. Can the Jets score 19? They've now beaten Bills six games in row, winning last three here, by 9-24-16 points. Five of seven Buffalo road games went over total; three of last four Jet games stayed under.

Dolphins (7-8) @ Patriots (11-4)-- New England has to play to win, just in case Denver were to get upset by Browns; Patriots (-7.5) beat Dolphins 23-16 back in Week 13, when Miami kicked late FG to cover spread. Patriots won last five series games and nine of last 11, winning last three played here, by 10-31-3; they are 3-4 as home faves this year, winning at home by 10-3-6-35-28 points. 11 of last 13 Patriot games went over the total; five of last seven Miami games stayed under. Miami is 3-3 as road underdog this year, losing away games by 20-3-3-5-14 points- five of its eight losses are by 7 or less points. Favorites are 6-4 vs the spread in AFC East divisional games, 3-3 at home.

Ravens (10-5) @ Bengals (9-6)-- Both teams will play a playoff game next week, would expect banged-up guys to sit out; Ravens (-6) crushed Cincy 44-13 back in season opener, averaging 8.8 ypa, but they've lost five of last seven visits to Queen City (won 24-16 here LY). Bengals won/covered six of last seven games; they won at Pittsburgh LW despite three turnovers, only 14 rushing yards, and allowing Dalton to be sacked six times. Ravens snapped 3-game skid by routing Giants; they're 4-3 on road, with five of seven games decided by three points or less. Home favorites are 1-3-1 vs spread in AFC North divisional games. Six of last seven Bengal games stayed under; three of last four Raven games went over.

Texans (12-3) @ Colts (10-5)-- Indy coach Pagano's entrance to field will be an emotional moment, coming back from leukemia, but fact of matter is that Indy's spot in playoffs is set, while Texans need this win to clinch home field in AFC playoffs. Houston (-9) beat Colts 29-17 at home two weeks ago, blocking punt for a score- they had only one offensive TD, and didn't have any vs Vikings LW, in awful 23-6 home loss. Star RB Foster has heart issue, not sure if he plays in this game. AFC South home teams are 3-7 vs spread in divisional games, home dogs are 1-3. Houston is 6-1 on road, with five wins by 6+ points. Three of last four Houston games stayed under; under is 6-3-1 in last ten Indy games. Hard to overlook 352 rushing yards Colts allowed in win at Kansas City last week.

Jaguars (2-13) @ Titans (5-10)—Jax lost 11 of last 12 games, with only win 24-19 (+3) over Tennessee at home five weeks ago; they’re 5-7 in last 12 series games, with series splitting five of last six years; Jaguars lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 7-17-6 points. Titans lost at Jacksonville despite having seven sacks. Three of last five series totals were 33 or less. Jaguars outgained New England 436-349 last week, threw an INT in end zone on last play trying to tie game; they’re 5-2 as road underdogs this year, but lost 34-18/24-3 in last two away games. Tennessee lost 55-7 at Lambeau last week, after winning ugly Monday night games week before; they’re 1-2 vs spread as a favorite this year, 3-4 SU at home, with wins by 3-3-4 points. Home teams are 3-7 vs spread in AFC South divisional games, 2-4 if home favorite. Four of last five Jaguar games, three of last four Titan home games stayed under the total.

Eagles (4-11) @ Giants (8-7)—Giants were putrid last two weeks, getting outgained 927-442, outscored 67-14 in pair of lopsided road losses; they need this win and help to make playoffs. Philly was 3-1 after nipping Giants 19-17 (-2.5) in Week 4, outrushing Big Blue 191-57; they had 10-yard advantage in field position, but had just one TD, three FGs in four red zone drives. Roof has fallen in on Eagles since; they’ve lost 10 of last 11 games, still have no wins by more than two points, with seven of last eight losses by 7+ points. With Foles breaking hand, Vick expected to start, which amounts to audition for whatever team sings him next spring. Iggles have now won eight of last nine games with Giants—they won last five visits here, winning by 6-19-7-7-7 points. Five of last seven series totals were 44+. NFC East home teams are 2-8 vs spread in divisional games, 1-5 if favored. Giants won five of last six home games, scoring 90 points in winning last two (Packers/Saints).

Bears (9-6) @ Lions (4-11)—Chicago scored two defensive TDs in easy win at Arizona last week, week after Lions gave up two defensive scores in 38-10 loss in desert, Cardinals’ only win in their last 11 games. It was just second win in last seven games for Bears, who held off Detroit 13-7 (-6.5) back in Week 7, outrushing Lions 171-99; they were saved by four takeaways (+4), as Lions scored only seven points in four trips to Chicago red zone. Series has been swept seven of last eight year, with Chicago 5-2 in last seven visits here. Bears are 4-3 on road, with all four wins by 16+ points; they’re 2-1 as road favorites this year, 8-3-1 since 2008. Detroit lost its last seven games (0-6-1 vs spread) despite Johnson setting single season record for receiving yards; they’ve lost last four home games, with three of four losses by 4 or less points. NFC North home underdogs are 2-2 vs spread in divisional games; NFL-wide, divisional home dogs are 16-19-1 vs spread. Five of Bears’ last six road games went over the total, as did six of last nine Detroit games.

Buccaneers (6-9) @ Falcons (13-2)—Atlanta has #1 seed in NFC wrapped up, would expect banged-up guys to be held out; Bucs lost last five games (0-4-1 vs spread), as friction between players/coaches has been reported. First of those five straight losses was Falcons’ 24-23 win (-1) in Tampa in Week 12, when Ryan passed for 345 yards (10.5 ypa) and Atlanta survived -2 turnover ratio. Falcons are 7-0 at home this year, 4-3 as favorites, with wins by 6-2-3-6-4-10-34 points. Bucs are 4-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 7-6-8-41 points (3-4 SU on road, but lost last two). Tampa Bay has one offensive TD, 10 turnovers on 23 drives in last two games, as Freeman was picked eight times- they were outscored 48-6 in first half of last three games. NFC South home teams are 6-3-1 vs spread in divisional games, with home favorites 2-1. Five of last six games for both teams stayed under the total.

Panthers (6-9) @ Saints (7-8)—Carolina won four of last five games after 2-8 start; Saints have shot at finishing 8-8 after 0-4 start, which included a 35-27 loss (-2.5) in Charlotte in Week 2, in wild game (Saints outgained Carolina 486-463) that was Panthers’ first win in last five series games- they lost last three visits here, by 10-2-28 points. After going 0-12 on third down in 36-14 loss to Denver in Week 10, Panthers have converted 43-83 (51.8%) over last six games, as Newton’s mobility allows them to move chains. Carolina is 6-3 vs spread as an underdog this year, 4-0 on road; dogs are 10-5 vs spread overall in their ’12 games. Saints scored 41-34 points in winning last two games; they won four of last five home games after losing first two, scoring 30.4 ppg in last five- they’re 3-2 as home favorite this year. NFC South home teams are 6-3-1 vs spread in divisional games, 2-1 if favored. Four of last six Carolina road games, five of Saints’ last seven games went over the total.

Browns (5-10) @ Steelers (7-8)—Pittsburgh in rare spot as also-ran here; they’ve lost three in row and five of last six games- seven of their last eight games were decided by six or less points (3-5). Steelers (-1.5) turned ball over eight times with Batch at QB in hideous 20-14 loss on Lake Erie in Week 12, just their 2nd loss in last 18 games vs Cleveland; Browns outrushed them 108-49, started five drives (scored 17 points) in Steeler territory. Cleveland lost its last eight visits here, with seven of the eight by 11+ points. Browns are 2-4 as road underdogs this year, losing away games by 7-7-14-4-3-22 points, with a win at Oakland. Steelers lost last three home games; they’ve been held under 100 rushing yards in last five games. Pitt has six sacks, three takeaways last week, still lost tough game to Bengals. Home teams are 3-5-2 vs spread in AFC North divisional games, 1-3-1 if favored. Under is 6-2-1 in last nine Cleveland games, 1-3 in last four Steeler games.

Packers (11-4) @ Vikings (9-6)—Both teams need this win; Pack for home field/bye in playoffs, Vikings just to get in tournament. Green Bay (-8) beat Vikings 23-14 at home four weeks ago at Lambeau, despite Minnesota running ball for 240 yards- they’ve now won last five series games, and 10 of last 13. Series has been swept in seven of last eight years; Pack won four of last six visits here, winning 31-3/33-27 last two years. Green Bay won nine of last 10 games overall, four of last five on road since losing to emotional Colts in Week 6, when they blew 21-3 halftime lead; they’ve covered last six games when favored. Vikings won/covered all three games since Lambeau loss, running ball for 558 yards, as Peterson chases Dickerson’s single-season rushing mark; they’re 6-1 at home this year, losing only to Bucs in Thursday night game, 6-3 as underdogs. NFC North underdogs are 5-3-2 in divisional play, 2-2-1 if at home. Five of last six Green Bay games, four of last five Viking games stayed under the total.

Chiefs (2-13) @ Broncos (12-3)— Broncos need win for first round bye in playoffs, which is huge; Denver (-10) had only TD/FG in four red zone drives in 17-9 win at Arrowhead in Week 12- Chiefs outrushed them 148-95, but passed for only 116 yards. Broncos won last five home games, by 31-20-7-8-22 points; they’ve covered seven of last nine games overall, all as favorites. Nightmare of season ends here for Chiefs, with housecleaning likely to follow; KC is 2-5 vs spread on road this year- they’ve lost last three weeks by 23-15-7 points, outscored 32-10 in first half of those three games. Chiefs’ only two TDs on last 33 drives both came on 80+-yard runs by Charles, on the first play of a half. AFC West favorites are 6-4 vs spread in divisional play, 3-3 at home. Six of last seven KC games stayed under total; six of last eight Bronco games went over. This guy Mike McCoy, Denver’s OC? He has easiest job in America, because #18 does it for him.

Raiders (4-11) @ Chargers (6-9)—Carson Palmer is out here; either Leinart or Pryor (or both) get nod here, vs underachieving Charger team likely playing last game for Norv Turner. San Diego (-1.5) opened season with 22-14 win at Oakland, in game where Bolts had a ridiculous 25-yard edge in field position, but only scored one TD (and four FGs) in five red zone drives- it was fourth straight series win for the road team, with San Diego winning 12 of last 15 overall. Oakland won last two visits here, 28-13/24-17, after losing previous seven trips in. Raiders lost seven of last eight games, with only win vs dreadful Chiefs; they’re 2-5 vs spread on road, losing last three away games by average score of 35-12. San Diego lost five of last seven games, with both wins in eastern time zone; they lost last three home games, scoring total of 33 points. Favorites are 6-4 vs spread in AFC West divisional games, 3-3 at home. Last five Raider games, last three San Diego home games stayed under the total.

Cardinals (5-10) @ 49ers (10-4-1)—Things could get ugly at Candlestick, where 49ers need to win in case Minnesota upsets the Packers; Niners (-7) waxed Redbirds 24-3 in Glendale in Week 8, holding Arizona to 7 yards rushing and 4.6 ypa. Series has been swept seven of last eight years; Cardinals lost last three visits here, by combined score of 85-23. Cardinals lost 11 of last 12 games; they gained total of 196 yards in the only win; they’re 3-3 as road underdog, losing away games by 14-7-14-4-1-58 points (they won at Foxboro in Week 2)- none of their QBs are capable of moving ball here. SF is off pair of tough road games- they allowed 31 points in second half at Foxboro, then 28 in first half at Seattle last week- underdogs are 5-2 vs spread when 49ers allow 20+ points, 2-6 when they don’t. Home teams are 6-3-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games, 2-2-1 if favored. Four of last five Arizona games, six of last seven 49ers games went over the total.

Rams (7-7-1) @ Seahawks (10-5)—Seattle is 7-0 at home this year, 4-0 as home favorite; they were underdog in first three home games this year- Hawks won last three at home by combined score of 128-20 (43-7 average). That said, Seahawks lost 19-13 (-2.5) at St Louis in Week 4, when Rams had three picks (+2), held Seahawks to 2-9 on 3rd down conversions and a TD/two FG on three red zone drives. That was just Rams’ second win in last 15 series games; they’ve lost last seven visits here, with six of seven losses by 10+ points. St Louis is 7-0 this season when they don’t lose turnover battle; they’re 4-0-1 SU in divisional games, tying Niners in Candlestick as 12-point dogs in Week 10- they’re 6-1 vs spread in true road games, losing away games by 4-17-3 points (won last three on road SU). Three of last four Ram games stayed under total; Seattle’s last five games went over. Rams covered last six games that stayed under, are 4-4 vs spread if game goes over.

Cowboys (8-7) @ Redskins (9-6)—Winner here takes NFC East title, which Washington hasn’t won since ’99; Skins won/covered last six games, including 38-31 (+3) at Dallas on Thanksgiving, when they outrushed Pokes 142-35, had three takeaways to offset Dallas’ 423 passing yards. Dallas won six of last eight series games, with five of last six series wins by 4 or less points- they’ve won three of last four played here, with average total in last five, 29. Last four Dallas games were all decided by 5 or less points; they’ve scored average of 21.6 points just in second half of their last seven games, as Romo-Bryant combo has clicked often. Cowboys are 5-2 vs spread on road, winning three of last four SU. Redskins won/covered last six games; they’re 3-3 as home favorites. Despite playing with two rookie QBs, Washington has had only two games this year where they’ve been minus in turnovers (+14). Four of last five games for both teams went over the total.

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12/30/2012 12:03 PM

NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 17

Check out our NFL poolies' cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs in condensed form. Quick-hitting betting notes on all of Week 17's action.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-1, 41)

These two AFC North rivals could do it all again next week in the conference wildcard game. If Baltimore wins and the Patriots lose to the Dolphins, then the Ravens would host the Bengals in the first round. If they lose, they play the Indianapolis Colts to open the postseason. Baltimore will be looking to rest its starters and protect injured players. Cincinnati is also locked into a postseason spot but will likely try to finish the year with some momentum. The Bengals fell to the Ravens in Week 1, 44-13 as 7-point road underdogs. However, they have managed to go 5-2 ATS in their past seven home games with Baltimore.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (N/A)

Cleveland is banged up heading into this finale. Running back Trent Richardson is nursing a bum ankle and quarterbacks Brandon Weeden and Colt McCoy are both dealing with shoulder injuries. All three are questionable for Week 17. Pittsburgh missed the playoff bus after a loss to Cincinnati last week. The Steelers say they want to finish the season strong and avoid a losing record for the first time since 2003. Pittsburgh is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven meetings with Cleveland, including a 20-14 loss as 1-point road favorites in Week 12.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (+7, 46.5)

Houston is skidding at the wrong time. The Texans have lost two of their last three and home-field advantage in the postseason hangs by a string versus Indianapolis. If Houston losses, it could fall as far back as third in the AFC and lose that home edge. Running back Arian Foster is expected to play after leaving with an irregular heartbeat last week. The Colts have clinched the fifth seed in the AFC and will welcome head coach Chuck Pagano back to the sidelines after his battle with leukemia. The home team has covered in each of the past five meetings between these AFC South rivals.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-4, 41.5)

Could the tank be on with Jacksonville? If the Jaguars lose and Kansas City falls to Denver, the Jags would be guaranteed the No. 2 pick in the upcoming draft. RB Maurice Jones-Drew is not expected to suit up for the finale. Tennessee’s front office could be singing for their supper in Week 17. The Titans brass is pointing the finger at head coach Mike Munchak, GM Ruston Webster and COO Mike Reinfeldt and asking what went wrong this year. Going out on a winning note wouldn’t hurt. The Jaguars have covered in each of the past four meeting with the Titans, including a 24-19 win in Week 12.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-7.5, 45.5)

New York not only needs to win to make the playoffs but also needs Dallas, Chicago and Minnesota to lose in Week 17. The Giants have been outscored 67-14 in the last two games, however, those came on the road. New York is averaging 33.7 points at home and can break the franchise home scoring mark if they score at least 13 points Sunday. The Eagles nearly played spoiler to Washington last week and already have a win over the Giants – a 19-17 victory in Week 4. QB Michael Vick returns under center for Philadelphia after Nick Foles broke his hand in Week 16.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 39)

Jets head coach Rex Ryan said he would use the final contests as a chance to evaluate younger players for next season. The thing is, Ryan may not be around to see those talents in 2013. QB Mark Sanchez will get the start over an injured Greg McIlroy and RB Shonn Greene is trying to add a 1,000-yard rushing season to his free-agent resume. Buffalo desperately needs to end the year on a high note after losing three straight. Head coach Chan Gailey says he doesn’t plan on turning to his reserves in Week 17 and will roll out his usual lineup. New York is 5-1 in its last six meetings with Buffalo.

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (+3, 44.5)

Chicago needs to win and hope Minnesota loses to Green Bay in order to make the postseason cut. The Bears may also be playing for head coach Lovie Smith’s job. Chicago appeared locked into a high postseason seed before losing six of its last seven games (2-5 ATS). Jay Cutler needs to put the team on his back. The Bears have passed for fewer than 150 yards in six of their last 10 games. Detroit could roll over for Chicago in hopes of bettering its draft position. A Week 17 loss could translate in a third-overall selection. And with Calvin Johnson breaking the single-season receiving record last week, the Lions have little motivation.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (N/A)

Atlanta has already locked up the top seed in the NFC and could choose to rest its starters in a meaningless Week 17 game. However, momentum could be very important to the Falcons, who have flopped in the postseason in past years. Tampa Bay looked like a playoff sleeper at times this season but folded down the home stretch, losing five in a row. QB Josh Freeman is a big reason for that slide, throwing eight interceptions in his last two games. Head coach Greg Schiano is aiming to go out on a positive note, so expect the Bucs to give everything they have left.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-5, 54)

Carolina is the hottest team in the NFL in recent weeks, bringing a three-game SU and ATS winning streaking into the season finale. QB Cam Newton has compiled 688 passing yards, 183 yards rushing and seven combined touchdowns in that span. The Saints aren’t going to the postseason for the first time since 2008 but won’t lie down in the finale. Interim head coach Joe Vitt - always one to go for it – says Week 17 is a precursor to the 2013 season. New Orleans has been dismal ATS at home versus Carolina, going just 1-10 ATS in its last 11 home tilts with the Panthers.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-16, 42)

Denver is playing for the first-round bye Sunday and could even clinch home-field advantage through the AFC playoffs if Houston losses to Indianapolis. The last five times the Broncos earned home field through the postseason, they went to the Super Bowl in four of those seasons. Kansas City just wants to get this season over with. Head coach Romeo Crennel and GM Scott Pioli are gone following Week 17. Kansas City, however is 5-2 ATS in its last seven Week 17 contests.

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (N/A)

This is expected to be Norv Turner’s final game as the Bolts head coach with rumors of his dismissal swirling about for the majority of the season. RBs Ryan Matthews and Ronnie Brown are both injured so expect a lot of air time for Philip Rivers and the passing attack. Oakland won’t have QB Carson Palmer in Week 17 after he injured his chest. The Raiders turn the snaps over to backups Matt Leinart and Terrelle Pryor and will look to RB Darren McFadden to shoulder the load on offense. Oakland is 5-2 ATS in its last seven meetings with San Diego.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-16.5, 39.5)

The Niners, who need a win to clinch the NFC West, not only took one on the chin from the Seahawks in Week 16 but also lost one of their biggest weapons in the passing game. WR Mario Manningham is out for the year with a knee injury. San Francisco could go with a ground-heavy attack, pitting their fourth-ranked rushing attack versus Arizona’s 28th-ranked run defense. The Cardinals are poised for a fire sale this offseason and many players may be competing for their jobs this week. Surprisingly, Arizona is the best bet in Week 17, going 8-3 ATS in the season finale since 2001.

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5, 41)

The Seahawks are in the postseason but can clinch the NFC West title with a victory over St. Louis and a loss for the 49ers. Seattle is coming off an impressive beating of San Francisco at home in Week 16, improving to 7-0 SU and ATS inside CenturyLink Field. The Rams haven’t been great on the road and now visit the toughest venue in the NFL. St. Louis is winless in its last seven trips to Seattle and has been outscored 199-76 in those games. The Rams are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 meetings overall with the Seahawks. St. Louis is 4-0-1 SU and 5-0 ATS versus NFC West rivals this season.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+3.5, 46)

Adrian Peterson’s pursuit of the single-season rushing record is on the back burner with the Vikings’ playoff hopes resting on a win at home in Week 17. Minnesota, which has won three in a row SU and ATS, has lost five straight meetings with Green Bay (1-4 ATS). The Packers clinched the NFC North title but can earn the No. 2 seed in the conference with a win in the finale. That bye week could be crucial for a banged-up roster. The Packers could have WR Jordy Nelson back in action this weekend.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-10, 46)

The Patriots are cheering for the Colts and Chiefs Sunday, as a win over Miami and a Houston loss would end up giving New England the AFC’s No. 1 seed and a Denver loss would insure the No. 2 seed. Bill Belichick may want to run up the score early in order to give his starters some down time before the postseason. Miami has lost five in a row to New England (2-3 ATS) and has been dismal on the road this year. The Dolphins are 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS away from Miami and now travel to chilly Gillette Stadium, where the temperatures will dip below 20 degrees with a chance of snow Sunday.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-3.5, 48)

These NFC East rivals play for all the marbles Sunday night. A win by either team earns the division crowns and a postseason ticket. Dallas had a three-game winning streak snapped in an overtime loss to New Orleans Sunday while Washington extended its successful stretch to 6-0 SU and ATS since a bye in Week 10. The Cowboys not only fight a classic rival but also the elements Sunday. The temperature is expected to be in the low 30s in D.C. and Dallas is just 4-11 SU in games played in sub-40 degree weather over the past 20 seasons. The Redskins defeated the Cowboys on Thanksgiving and have covered in five straight games versus “America’s Team”.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: