cnotes Posts:32869 Followers:38
12/30/2012 12:05 PM

Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

Week 17 is one of the wildest times for NFL bettors. There are teams resting up for the playoffs, some looking ahead to next year and others fighting for their postseason lives. We talk with Jay Rood, sportsbook director at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, about the biggest moves on the board heading into Sunday’s games:

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals – Open: -3, Move: -1

Some online books have moved this line off the key number with money on the road Ravens. Rood is currently dealing Cincinnati -2.5, but says the sharp community came in hard on Baltimore +3 when they opened the Week 17 lines.

“The sharps grabbed the field goal,” Rood told Covers. “Our limits are a little shorter because it’s Week 17, but this was limit plays. Aside from that though, the action has been pretty balanced and there is a little lean toward the under.”

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts – Open: +4, Move: +7

Public money is coming in strong on the Texans, with the No. 1 seed in the AFC still up for grabs. Rood says the dire straits in Houston outweigh the emotional push the Colts will get when head coach Chuck Pagano returns to the sideline for the first time since leaving the team for leukemia treatments in September.

“Houston is kind of playing for their playoff lives,” says Rood. “They don’t want to find themselves traveling to Denver for a playoff game down the road. Their coach (former Broncos player Gary Kubiak) knows all about Denver in the playoffs.”

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants - Open: -9.5, Move: -7.5

The announcement that Michael Vick will start in place of injured Eagles QB Nick Foles has pushed this spread two points. Rood says they adjusted the line to New York -8.5 after news of Vick’s return under center and the sharp money took it to just above a touchdown. However, he expects the public to come back on a home team scratching and clawing for a postseason spot.

“According to the players, it’s a plus,” Rood said when asked whether it was good or bad that Vick was playing. “But I have to think the public is going to side with the Giants. They’re not completely written off.”

St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks – Open: -10.5

Despite a flood of bets coming in on the Seahawks, most online books are reluctant to move the spread for this NFC West battle. Seattle has rolled over its last three opponents and has dominated the Rams at home in recent years. But, St. Louis has played divisional foes tough this year, posting a 4-0-1 SU record and a 5-0 ATS mark versus NFC West opponents.

“Seattle is getting a lot of public play at -10.5,” says Rood. “ How can you not bet them the way they’ve been playing the last three games?”

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32869 Followers:38
12/30/2012 12:07 PM


Week 17

Bears at Lions: What bettors need to know

Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (3, 44.5)

The Chicago Bears need a win and some help in the final week of the regular season to lock up a playoff spot. The Detroit Lions are only playing for one thing - history for Calvin Johnson. The Bears are hoping to keep Johnson in check when they visit the Lions on Sunday. Johnson broke Jerry Rice’s single-season record for receiving yards last week and is aiming to become the first player in history to reach 2,000.

The Bears kept their playoff hopes alive with a win over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 16 and are hoping their banged-up roster can pull out one more in the final week. Chicago will also need the Green Bay Packers to beat the Minnesota Vikings (9-6). Detroit, which made the playoffs last season, has lost seven games in a row to crush any hope of a return trip. Johnson has been the only thing keeping spirits up with his record 1,892 yards.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Bears -3, O/U 44.5

ABOUT THE BEARS (9-6): Chicago is hoping running back Matt Forte (ankle) will be ready for the Lions. He sat out practice Wednesday and was limited Thursday. Forte was knocked out of Sunday’s win over Arizona and left the locker room in a walking boot, but he told reporters he would play against the Lions. Linebacker Brian Urlacher (hamstring) has missed the last three games and has yet to practice this week. The Bears had dropped five of six prior to the win at Arizona, averaging 11.4 points in the losses. They have won every game in which they have scored at least 18. The defense accounted for a pair of touchdowns in the 28-13 win over the Cardinals and quarterback Jay Cutler bounced back from an awful start to throw for a touchdown and at least keep the offense moving.

ABOUT THE LIONS (4-11): Detroit has simply become the Calvin Johnson show. What was once an explosive offense trying to compensate for a lackluster defense has put up an average of just 16 points in the last three games. Matthew Stafford (4,695) could end up with another 5,000-yard season but has only 17 touchdown passes to go with 16 interceptions. His 443 yards in Saturday’s 31-18 loss to the Atlanta Falcons marked the most in NFL history without a touchdown pass. Stafford hasn’t gotten much help from the running game and is frequently throwing from behind. Johnson caught 11 passes for 225 yards in the loss to Atlanta and is averaging 126.3 yards, making the 108 he needs for 2,000 a strong possibility. He has had at least 118 yards in each of the last eight games.


* Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Under is 6-0 in Bears’ last six vs. NFC North foes.
* Under is 4-1 in Lions’ last five vs. NFC North foes.


1. The Bears also lost starting S Chris Conte (hamstring) in the Arizona game. Anthony Walters replaced him the rest of the game.

2. Johnson was held to a season-low 34 yards in a 13-7 loss at Chicago on Oct. 22.

3. Chicago has taken eight of the last nine in the series but lost in its last trip to Detroit 24-13 on Oct. 10, 2011.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32869 Followers:38
12/30/2012 12:08 PM


Week 17

Packers at Vikings: What bettors need to know

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (3.5, 46)

The Green Bay Packers' path is pretty well defined. If the visiting Packers can defeat the NFC North rival Minnesota Vikings on Sunday, they'll receive a bye and punch their ticket to the divisional playoffs. Should Green Bay suffer just its second loss in 11 outings, it could still clinch the No. 2 seed - provided San Francisco stumbles against Arizona and fellow NFC West rival Seattle follows suit versus St. Louis.

Minnesota's path to the postseason is a little trickier. A fourth straight victory on Sunday will secure the Vikings the No. 6 seed - and perhaps a return trip to Lambeau Field for the first round of the playoffs. A loss to the division foe on Sunday isn't entirely a death knell to the season, although Minnesota would require Chicago, Dallas and the New York Giants to all suffer losses in Week 17.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Packers -3.5, O/U 46

ABOUT THE PACKERS (11-4): Green Bay, which has defeated Minnesota in five straight games, secured its postseason berth with a convincing 55-7 rout of Tennessee last week. Pro Bowler Aaron Rodgers led the charge with his second consecutive three-touchdown game on Sunday, and has torched Minnesota during the team's winning streak. Rodgers has thrown for 14 touchdowns and accumulated a 122.2 passer rating. Green Bay's run-by-committee approach has been successful, with veteran Ryan Grant recording 80 yards and a pair of scores last week.

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (9-6): Adrian Peterson's bid to usurp Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record hit a bump in the road in last week in the team's 23-6 victory over Houston. The Pro Bowler battled abdominal soreness to amass "only" 86 yards, thus requiring 208 on Sunday if he wishes to break Dickerson's 1984 mark. Peterson torched the Packers for 210 yards on Dec. 2, but Green Bay walked away with a 23-14 triumph. Christian Ponder was victimized by two critical interceptions in the loss.


* Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Vikings are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six home games.
* Under is 5-0 in Packers’ last five vs. NFC North foes.
* Under is 6-0 in Vikings’ last six vs. a team with a winning record.


1. Green Bay OLB Clay Matthews didn't play in the first meeting due to a hamstring injury. The Pro Bowler, who has a team-high 12 sacks, is set to compete on Sunday, however.

2. Ponder has been picked off on only one occasion during Minnesota's three-game winning streak.

3. Packers WR Jordy Nelson returned to practice this week after injuring his hamstring in the teams' earlier tilt.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32869 Followers:38
12/30/2012 12:10 PM


Week 17

Sunday Night Football: Cowboys at Redskins

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-3.5, 48)

The stakes could not be higher for a pair of division rivals as the Washington Redskins host the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday night with the NFC East title on the line. Washington has turned its season around since a 3-6 start, winning each of its six games following its bye week. The winning streak is the longest since a seven-game run in 1996 for the Redskins, who are seeking their first division crown since 1999 but also can earn a playoff berth with losses by Chicago and Minnesota.

Dallas only can reach the postseason with a victory. The Cowboys also have flourished in the second half, following a 3-5 start with wins in five of their next six games before suffering a 34-31 overtime loss to New Orleans at home last Sunday. This week's situation is very familiar to Dallas, which last season lost to the New York Giants in the final week with the division title on the line and also missed the playoffs in 2008 with a setback to Philadelphia in the season finale.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: Redskins -3.5, O/U 48.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures around the freezing mark and clear skies. Winds will blow out of the NNW at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (8-7): While the NFC East crown is paramount, Dallas also wouldn't mind avenging a 38-31 home loss to Washington on Nov. 22. The Cowboys had won six of the previous seven meetings between the division rivals. Jason Witten set the NFL record for most receptions by a tight end last week with his 103rd catch. Since 2007, Witten has 547 receptions, the most by by a tight end. Linebacker Anthony Spencer has registered 6 1/2 sacks over his last six contests.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (9-6): Robert Griffin III returned from a one-game absence due to a sprained right knee and threw two touchdown passes in last Sunday's 27-20 victory at Philadelphia. The knee kept Griffin grounded, however, as he ran only twice for four yards while wearing a brace. "My mobility was down a little bit just because of the brace," Griffin said. "It didn't necessarily slow me down by any means, and I was able to protect myself out there." Griffin has run for 752 yards this season, the most by a rookie quarterback in NFL history.


* Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
* Redskins are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Cowboys’ last four vs. NFC East foes.
* Over is 4-1 in Redskins’ last five games overall.


1. Cowboys WR Dez Bryant has caught at least one touchdown pass in each of his last seven games.

2. Griffin has thrown six TD passes without an interception over his last four home contests.

3. Washington RB Alfred Morris leads all rookies with 1,413 rushing yards.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32869 Followers:38
12/30/2012 12:12 PM

NFL weather watch: Snow expected in Buffalo

Now that it’s officially winter, factoring weather into your handicapping will become even more important.

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 39)

Site: Ralph Wilson Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-20s with a 50 percent chance of snow. Winds will blow out of the WNW at 13 mph.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-7, 45.5)

Site: MetLife Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures around the freezing mark and partly cloudy skies. Winds will be strong out of the NW at 19 mph.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-11, 34.5)

Site: Heinz Field

Forecasts are calling for temperatures around the freezing mark and overcast skies. Winds will blow out of the west at 13 mph.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-10, 46)

Site: Gillette Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-20s and partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the NW at 13 mph.

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-10, 39)

Site: Qualcomm Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with a 40 percent of thunderstorms. Winds will blow out of the west at 6 mph.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32869 Followers:38
12/30/2012 12:13 PM

Where the action is: NFL Week 17 line moves

Playoff implications and lack of motivation litter NFL Week 17. We talk with online sportsbook about the biggest line moves on the board.

Miami at New England (-10.5, 46)

Sharp money pounded the total early and often at 48.5, 48, 47.5 down to its current 46 value. The side has seen little preference from sharps or the public at this time.

Green Bay at Minnesota (3.5, 46)

With news of Adrian Peterson’s injury the public has backed the Packers and are loading up on teasers for this game. The bet count is currently about 3-to-1 in favor of Green Bay although the money is not too far out of balance as of yet. As usual, the teaser money is leaning in the direction of the Pack.

Dallas at Washington (-3.5, 48.5)

The public has sided with the Skins and has created a 2-to-1 bet count and a 2-to-1 money wagered position on the side of this game. Some early sharp money did come in on Dallas at 4. Sharp money also hit the total on the game at 50, pushing the number down to its current 48.5 value.

New York Jets at Buffalo (-3.5, 39)

Sharp money continues to follow the Jets this week backing them at the +3 number. The total has seen more sharp money attention and has pushed the line down to 39 from 41.

Baltimore at Cincinnati (-1, 41)

The Ravens attracted early sharp money this week at +3 even money. That action has created a 2-to-1 money wagered advantage on that game. The public has not really chimed in on this game at all.

Jacksonville at Tennessee (-4, 41.5)

The Jacksonville Jaguars also received early sharp attention at the +5.5 number pushing it to the current +4 number. Titans RB Chris Johnson (ankle) is expected to play.

St Louis at Seattle (-11, 41)

Seattle is getting a lot of attention this week with a 3-to-1 bet count favoring the Seahawks. This game saw some of the larger sized bets of this week at the -10 number, creating the move to the current -11 line value. Seattle has joined the elite teaser team ranks with the likes of the New York Giants, New England Patriots, and Green Bay Packers.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32869 Followers:38
12/30/2012 12:15 PM

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

Six most popular picks and six least popular picks in Hilton handicapping contest, which has 700+ contestants, all of whom who pick five NFL games a week against the spread. They put up $1,500 each, so these are serious handicappers........

T5) Minnesota Vikings, 161
T5) Green Bay Packers, 161
4) Indianapolis Colts, 165
3) Pittsburgh Steelers, 168
2) Chicago Bears, 180
1) Washington Redskins, 208

27) New Jersey Jets, 58
28) San Francisco 49ers, 53
29) Denver Broncos, 52
30) Cleveland Browns, 47
31) Jacksonville Jaguars, 38
32) Oakland Raiders, 17

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32869 Followers:38
12/30/2012 12:23 PM

Sunday, December 30

Game Score Status Pick Amount

N.Y. Jets - 1:00 PM ET Buffalo -3.5 500 POD
Buffalo - Under 39 500

Baltimore - 1:00 PM ET Cincinnati -3 500
Cincinnati - Under 42.5 500

Cleveland - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland +10 500
Pittsburgh - Under 35 500

Houston - 1:00 PM ET Houston -5.5 500 POD
Indianapolis - Over 46.5 500

Jacksonville - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +5 500
Tennessee - Under 43 500

Philadelphia - 1:00 PM ET Philadelphia +6.5 500
N.Y. Giants - Over 45 500

Chicago - 1:00 PM ET Detroit +3 500
Detroit - Over 46 500

Tampa Bay - 1:00 PM ET Atlanta -3 500
Atlanta - Over 46 500

Carolina - 1:00 PM ET Carolina +4 500
New Orleans - Over 54 500

Miami - 4:25 PM ET New England -10 500
New England - Under 47 500

Green Bay - 4:25 PM ET Green Bay -3.5 500 POD
Minnesota - Under 45.5 500

Kansas City - 4:25 PM ET Denver -16.5 500
Denver - Under 41 500

Oakland - 4:25 PM ET Oakland +8 500
San Diego - Under 40 500

Arizona - 4:25 PM ET Arizona +16.5 500
San Francisco - Over 38 500 POD TOTAL [B]

St. Louis - 4:25 PM ET [B]St. Louis +12 500 POD

Seattle - Over 42.5 500

Dallas - 8:20 PM ET Washington -3.5 500
Washington - Under 49 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: