cnotes Posts:32918 Followers:38
01/01/2013 12:46 AM

New Year's Day bowl betting trends and stats

January 1 signifies a new year and with it a bevy of college football bowl games.

Let’s take a look at what’s trending for the upcoming New Year’s Day bowl card.

Stats since 1990 unless specified.

Bowling for dollars

Here is a look at the most recent trends for each of the five major bowl games on Jan. 1:

• Capital One Bowl: The favorite is 3-1 ATS the last four years and 5-7 ATS the last 12. All seven dog wins have been straight up.

• Gator Bowl: The favorite has cashed in each of the last two years, snapping a four-year run by the dogs.

• Orange Bowl: The favorite is 1-4 ATS the last five years, with the dog winning straight up four times.

• Outback Bowl: Of the eight ATS dog wins, six have been in straight-up fashion.

• Rose Bowl: Pac-10/12 teams are 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven games versus Big Ten opponents.

The good, the bad and the ugly

Good numbers: SEC bowl teams off a SU favorite loss (Mississippi State) are 10-1 ATS… MAC bowlers off a win (Northern Illinois) are 9-3 ATS vs. a .600 or greater opponents off a win.

Bad numbers… Big Ten bowl dogs off a loss of 17 or more points (Nebraska) are 1-5 ATS.

Ugly numbers… Big Ten bowl teams off a win (Wisconsin) are 3-15 ATS versus Pac-10/12 opponents.

Coach me up

• Michigan’s Brady Hoke is 8-0 ATS off a SU/ATS loss when his team has a .500 or greater win percentage.

• South Carolina’s Steve Spurrier is 9-1 ATS off a win versus a non-conference opponent off a SU/ATS loss.

• Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy is 6-1 ATS in games off a SU favorite loss.

• Wisconsin’s Barry Alvarez is 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS in bowl games.

• Mississippi State’s Dan Mullen is 1-18 SU and 5-14 ATS versus .750 or greater opponents.

• Florida State’s Jimbo Fisher is 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS versus .800 or greater opponents.

New Year’s babies

Favorites on New Year’s Day bowl games have been out of this world dating back to 1990.

That’s confirmed by a 70-52 ATS overall mark.

The best role for New Year's Day chalk is when they take on opponents with soft defenses, those allowing 20 or more points per game on the season. They zoom to 31-14 ATS in those situations.

Georgia, Mississippi State and Oklahoma State look to follow suit on Jan. 1.

New resolution

In keeping with the tradition of making - then breaking - new promises for the New Year, let’s see whether Mississippi State maintains status quo today.

The Bulldogs were 8-0 SU versus non-bowlers, but 0-4 SU and ATS and ITS (In The Stats) versus fellow bowl teams, this season.

Stat of New Year's Day

The favorite is 14-2 ATS in Oklahoma State’s last 16 bowl games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32918 Followers:38
01/01/2013 12:48 AM


Tuesday, January 1

Outback bowl: What bettors need to know

South Carolina Gamecocks vs. Michigan Wolverines (+5.5, 48)

WHEN: 1:00 PM ET, Tuesday, January 1, 2013
WHERE: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida


1. Quarterback Denard Robinson, who is from Deerfield Beach, Fla., will return home for No. 19 Michigan, but could be used all over the field in his final college game with the emergence of Devin Gardner. Robinson hasn’t attempted a pass since injuring his right elbow on Oct. 27 but ran for 220 yards while helping to replace injured running back Fitzgerald Toussaint. In the four games since Robinson’s injury, Gardner has thrown for 1,005 yards and accounted for 15 touchdowns.

2. Robinson and Gardner will have to account for defensive end Jadeveon Clowney, the Hendricks Award winner who was named a first-team All-American and SEC Defensive Player of the Year for No. 11 South Carolina after setting single-season school records with 13 sacks and 21½ tackles for loss.

3. Neither team will have the benefit of playing with the 1,000-yard running back they had back in September. The Gamecocks’ Marcus Lattimore suffered a devastating knee injury on the same day Robinson was hurt while Toussaint was lost for the season with his own significant leg injury on Nov. 17 against Iowa.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: South Carolina opened at -4.5 and was bet up as high as -6 before settling at -5.5. The total has moved from 48 to 47.5.

CONSENSUS: 61 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on South Carolina while 58 percent are on the over.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 70s. Winds are expected to blow south at 6 mph.


* Gamecocks are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.
* Wolverines are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five bowl games.
* Under is 4-0 in Gamecocks' last four bowl games.
* Over is 5-1 in Wolverines last six bowl games.

ABOUT SOUTH CAROLINA (10-2, 6-2 SEC, 8-4 ATS): The Gamecocks, who posted consecutive seasons with double-digit victories for the first time in school history, will be playing in the Outback Bowl for the fourth time and seeking consecutive bowl wins for the first time in school history. Coach Steve Spurrier has yet to name a starter at quarterback position after Dylan Thompson threw for 310 yards and three touchdowns in place of the injured Connor Shaw during the Gamecocks’ 27-17 regular-season finale win at Clemson. The Gamecocks are 17-2 against non-conference opponents over the last four years, with their last such loss coming to Florida State in the 2010 Chick-fil-A Bowl.

ABOUT MICHIGAN (8-4, 6-2 Big Ten, 5-7 ATS): While neutralizing Clowney will play a key role in determining their success, the Wolverines’ may be up to the task of limiting his effectiveness after their offensive line allowed a Big Ten-low 15 sacks. The Wolverines’ second-ranked pass defense could be tested in this game after starting cornerback J.T. Floyd was one of three players suspended for this game because of a violation of team rules; punter Will Hagerup and backup linebacker Brandin Hawthorne were the others. The loss of Floyd could loom large against receivers Ace Sanders and Bruce Ellington, who have each posted 100 yards receiving in a game since Lattimore went down.



Tuesday, January 1

Rose Bowl: What bettors need to know

Wisconsin Badgers vs. Stanford Cardinal (-6.5, 47.5)

WHEN: 5:00 PM ET, Tuesday, January 1, 2013
WHERE: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California


1. The Rose Bowl was shaping up as a fairly nondescript matchup with Pac-12 champion Stanford squaring off against a five-loss Wisconsin squad. Then the Badgers unwittingly added some juice and an intriguing subplot to the "The Granddaddy of Them All" when coach Bret Bielema accepted a job at Arkansas, prompting former Wisconsin coach and current athletic director Barry Alvarez to return to the sideline on New Year's Day. Alvarez took Wisconsin to the Rose Bowl three times - and won them all.

2. It will be strength against strength in a no-frills, grind-it-out affair between two of the only three schools to be playing in a BCS bowl game for the third straight season. The Badgers rely on a powerhouse ground game led by touchdown machine Montee Ball, the Doak Walker Award winner as the nation's top running back. Stanford counters with a rugged defense that is ranked third nationally against the run with an average of 87.7 yards allowed per game.

3. While Wisconsin went 8-5, eighth-ranked Stanford carries a seven-game winning streak into the Rose Bowl, highlighted by a dramatic victory at then-No. 1 Oregon to dash the Ducks' national championship hopes. The Cardinal have not tasted defeat since an overtime loss at BCS Championship Game finalist Notre Dame on Oct. 13. They beat four ranked opponents to close the season, including UCLA twice. The Badgers, who are playing in Pasadena for the third straight season, beat Stanford in the Rose Bowl following the 1999 season.

TV: 5 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Stanford opened at -6.5 and was bet up briefly to -7 before coming down as low as -6. The total has moved from 47.5 to 47 at some books.

CONSENSUS: 54 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on Stanford while 58 are on the over.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the high 50s. Winds are expected to blow SW at 5 mph.


* Badgers are 0-5 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Cardinal are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.
* Under is 5-2 in Badgers' last seven bowl games.
* Over is 19-7 in Cardinal's last 26 vs. a team with a winning record.

ABOUT WISCONSIN (8-5, 4-4 Big Ten, 6-7 ATS): Ball could not quite match his brilliant 2011 season, when he finished fourth in the Heisman Trophy voting, but he still piled up 1,730 yards and ran for 21 scores to become the NCAA career leader with 82 touchdowns. He rushed for 202 yards and three touchdowns in a 70-31 drubbing of Nebraska in the Big Ten Conference title game as the Badgers rebounded from back-to-back overtime losses to end the regular season. Ball is not a one-man show in the backfield. James White had 109 yards and four touchdowns and Melvin Gordon added 216 yards on only nine carries as Wisconsin amassed 539 rushing yards against Nebraska. Quarterback Curt Phillips went 2-2 after replacing an injured Joel Stave (collarbone), who hopes to be cleared for the game. Wisconsin's defense ranks 12th nationally versus the run (111.3 yards).

ABOUT STANFORD (11-2, 8-1 Pac-12, 8-5 ATS): The Cardinal also feature a top back in Stepfan Taylor, who ran for 1,442 yards and 12 touchdowns to become the school's all-time leading rusher. Taylor had three straight 100-yard games after Kevin Hogan was inserted as the starting quarterback. Stanford's offense picked up with Hogan as the starter, scoring at least 27 points in four of his five appearances. Hogan completed 72.9 percent of his passes and his mobility added a new dimension to the offense. His top target is star tight end Zach Ertz, who set school records with 66 receptions and 837 yards and had 11 catches in the upset of Oregon. Linebacker Trent Murphy is the leader of a defense that led the nation with 56 sacks and 120 tackles for losses. Ed Reynolds is a big-play safety who intercepted six passes this season and returned three for touchdowns.



Tuesday, January 1

Heart Of Dallas Bowl: What bettors need to know

Purdue Boilermakers vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys (-17, 70)

WHEN: 12:00 PM ET, Tuesday, January 1, 2013
WHERE: Cotton Bowl Stadium, Dallas, Texas


1. Having survived the coaching carousel with Mike Gundy still at the helm, Oklahoma State will be looking for its third straight bowl win and fifth in the last seven seasons. Purdue was not quite as lucky when it came to the coaching turnover and will be led by interim Patrick Higgins after coach Danny Hope was let go. Former Kent State coach Darrell Hazell will take over the program after the contest.

2. The Cowboys suffered four of their five losses on the road this season but will be playing close enough to home in Dallas that they should be able to get the crowd behind them. Either way, the game will likely turn into a shootout. Oklahoma State was fourth in the nation in scoring (44.7 points) during the regular season while the Boilermakers averaged a shade less than 30 points and blasted Indiana 56-35 in their final game to become bowl eligible.

3. Purdue senior quarterback Robert Marve passed for seven touchdowns and one interception during the three-game winning streak that closed the regular season and will be getting a chance to shred a Cowboys' secondary that allowed 285.7 yards in the regular season. The Boilermakers’ bigger deficiency is against the run, where Oklahoma State running back Joseph Randle could do some damage.

TV: 12 p.m. ET, ESPNU.

LINE: Oklahoma State opened as high as -17.5 and was bet down to -16.5 before going back to -17. The total has moved from 69.5 to as high as 70.5.

CONSENSUS: 72 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on OSU while 62 percent are on the over.

WEATHER: The forecast in Dallas is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid 40s. Winds are expected to blow NW at 10 mph.


* Boilermakers are 1-4 ATS in their last five bowl games.
* Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
* Over is 7-3 in Boilermakers' last 10 games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in Cowboys' last four non-conference games.

ABOUT PURDUE (6-6, 3-5 Big Ten, 6-6 ATS): Hope compiled a 22-27 record over four seasons but the Boilermakers struggled against quality competition this season and won only three games in the Big Ten - against teams with a combined conference record of 4-20. Fortunately those three games came in the last three weeks of the season, allowing Marve and the offense to build a little momentum heading into bowl season. The defense was better than only Indiana in the Big Ten but Marve, who missed three games and was limited to a total of 17 passes in two others, won his job back in the final month and went for 348 yards and four touchdowns in the final win.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (7-5, 5-4 Big 12, 6-5 ATS): The Cowboys were rebuilding after waving goodbye to first-round NFL draft picks Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon, but Gundy and company were able to keep the offense rolling right along. Junior quarterback Clint Chelf wrestled away the starting job over the last month but could not keep up with the deficiencies on defense in losses at Oklahoma 51-48 and Baylor 41-34 to close the season. While the quarterback position has been the subject of some debate, Randle’s place in secure. The junior rushed for four scores in the loss to Oklahoma and finished the regular season with 1,351 yards and 14 touchdowns.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32918 Followers:38
01/01/2013 12:52 AM


Tuesday, January 1

Gator Bowl: What bettors need to know

Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Northwestern Wildcats (-1, 52)

WHEN: 12:00 PM ET, Tuesday, January 1, 2013
WHERE: EverBank Field, Jacksonville, Florida


1. It's a matchup of two teams on the rise who are trying to build winning traditions. Mississippi State has qualified for three consecutive bowl games for the first time since 1998-2000, and the Bulldogs have won five straight bowl games dating to the 1999 Peach Bowl. Northwestern has made five straight bowl games but has not won one since the 1949 Rose Bowl.

2. Northwestern is trying to claim its first 10-win season since 1995, when it reached the Rose Bowl under coach Gary Barnett, and give coach Pat Fitzgerald 50 victories, the most in school history. Fitzgerald is tied with Lynn Waldorf (1936-45) with 49 wins.

3. Both teams led their conferences in turnover margin, as Northwestern as plus-13 and Mississippi State was plus-17.

TV: 12 p.m. ET, ESPN2.

LINE: Mississippi State opened as a 2-point favorite and was bet up to -2.5 before money on Northwestern took the line all the way to Wildcats -1.5. The total has moved from 51.5 to 53.5.

CONSENSUS: 63 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on Northwestern while 62 percent are on the over.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 70s. Winds are expected to blow SW at 12 mph.


* Bulldogs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.
* Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games.
* Under is 6-0 in Bulldogs' last six non-conference games.
* Under is 6-1 in Wildcats' last seven non-conference games.

ABOUT MISSISSIPPI STATE (8-4, 4-4 SEC, 6-6 ATS): The Bulldogs faltered in SEC play after a 7-0 start that saw them climb as high as No. 12 in the rankings. Three of their losses came against highly ranked opponents in Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU, but the regular season ended on a sour note with a 41-24 loss to rival Mississippi. The balanced offense is led by running back LaDarius Perkins (940 yards, eight touchdowns), quarterback Tyler Russell (2,791 yards, 22 touchdowns, six interceptions) and receiver Chad Bumphis (55 catches, 904 yards, 12 touchdowns). The defense was strong early in the season but didn't hold up as well against the SEC's top teams, allowing 37 or more points in all four losses.

ABOUT NORTHWESTERN (9-3, 5-3 Big Ten, 11-1 ATS): The Wildcats won their last two games of the regular season and three of their last four. Northwestern's spread offense has been one of the most productive in the nation on the ground, averaging 230.9 rushing yards with running back Venric Mark (1,310 yards, 11 touchdowns) and quarterback Kain Colter (820 yards, 12 touchdowns) leading the way. Colter also has passed for 796 yards with eight touchdowns and two interceptions while splitting time with Trevor Siemian (1,192 yards, six touchdowns, two interceptions). Mark needs 147 all-purpose yards to tie the Northwestern single-season record of 2,195 set by Damien Anderson in 2000. The defense is solid across the board but is especially tough against the run (123.8 yards per game).



Tuesday, January 1

Capital One Bowl: What bettors need to know

Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Georgia Bulldogs (-8.5, 60)

WHEN: 1:00 PM ET, Tuesday, January 1, 2013
WHERE: Florida Citrus Bowl, Orlando, Florida


1. Which team can better handle disappointment? Instead of the BCS Championship Game and the Rose Bowl, Georgia and Nebraska are headed to Orlando. The Bulldogs came up five yards short of beating Alabama in the SEC Championship Game and playing for a national title. The Cornhuskers were demolished 70-31 by Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game, giving up an astounding 539 rushing yards. This is only the second all-time meeting - Nebraska beat Georgia 45-6 in the 1969 Sun Bowl.

2. The balanced Bulldogs scored three touchdowns against the Crimson Tide’s top-ranked defense - a fourth came on a blocked field goal - and face a Cornhuskers' defense allowing an average of 26.2 points. Georgia is on pace to set school records in scoring (37.2) and total offense (458.3), and quarterback Aaron Murray leads the nation in pass efficiency. He is the first player in SEC history to throw for 3,000-plus yards in three straight years.

3. Nebraska features the nation’s eighth-best rushing attack (254.5). Running back Ameer Abdullah (1,089 yards, eight touchdowns), dual-threat quarterback Taylor Martinez (973 rushing yards, 10 TDs) and RB Rex Burkhead (535 yards, 7.2 yards per carry) lead a deep backfield. Georgia just gave up 350 rushing yards to Alabama, and the Tide didn’t do anything fancy. Look for the Cornhuskers to run right at the Bulldogs.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, ABC.

LINE: Georgia opened at -10 and has since been bet down to -8.5. The total has moved from 57 to 60.5 points.

CONSENSUS: 67 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on UGA while 57 percent is on the over.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid 70s. Winds are expected to blow south at 12 mph.


* Cornhuskers are 3-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Under is 5-0 in Cornhuskers last five bowl games.
* Under is 4-1 in Bulldogs last five bowl games.

ABOUT NO. 21 NEBRASKA (10-3, 7-1 Big Ten, 6-6-1 ATS): Nebraska, one of only four teams in the nation to win nine games each of the last five years, makes its second straight trip to the Capital One Bowl after losing 30-13 to South Carolina last season. Junior guard Spencer Long is a key to the Big Ten’s best ground game - the 6-4, 305-pounder was named a second-team Walter Camp All-American. While Nebraska is vulnerable to the run, the Blackshirts' defense leads the nation in passing yards allowed (148.2). Nebraska’s all-time record against the SEC is 94-47-4.

ABOUT NO. 5 GEORGIA (11-2, 7-1 SEC, 7-6 ATS): The Bulldogs are making their sixth appearance in the Capital One Bowl, most recently beating Michigan State in 2009. Georgia is loaded with NFL talent, starting with outside linebacker Jarvis Jones, who could be the first overall pick in April. Jones has 22.5 tackles for loss, 12.5 sacks, seven forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries and an interception. He is one of several defensive playmakers, including linebacker Alec Ogletree (98 tackles in nine games) and safety Bacarri Rambo (16 career interceptions). Freshman running back Todd Gurley has run for 1,260 yards and 16 touchdowns, one more than the old freshman record set by Herschel Walker. Murray has overcome the loss of two top receivers, with wide receiver Tavarres King (39 catches, 846 yards, eight touchdowns) emerging as the top outside threat.



Tuesday, January 1

Orange Bowl: What bettors need to know

Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Florida State Seminoles (-13, 58.5)

WHEN: 8:30 PM ET, Tuesday, January 1, 2013
WHERE: Sun Life Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida


1. Northern Illinois gets a chance to prove the pundits wrong when the 16th-ranked Huskies face No. 12 Florida State, which earned its ticket to the Orange Bowl by holding off Georgia Tech 21-15 in the ACC championship game. The BCS-busting Huskies are riding a 12-game winning streak, highlighted by their 44-37 double-overtime victory over Kent State in the MAC title game.

2. Florida State ranks second in the country in total defense while holding opponents to less than 10 points five times this season. They’ll be tested by a Northern Illinois squad that ranks ninth in scoring offense and rushing offense. The teams are meeting for the first time, and it’s also the first bowl meeting between the ACC and MAC.

3. Northern Illinois’ Rod Carey will make his head coaching debut after replacing Dave Doeren, who accepted the top job at North Carolina State after the MAC title game. The 41-year old Carey previously served as the Huskies offensive coordinator. Florida State defensive coordinator Mark Stoops, defensive ends coach D.J. Eliot and special teams coordinator Eddie Gran are all leaving for other jobs, and it’s unclear whether they’ll be staying with the Seminoles for the Orange Bowl.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Florida State opened as a 14-point favorite and has been bet down to -13. The total opened at 58 and has climbed to 58.5.

CONSENSUS: 61 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on FSU while 65 percent are on the over.

WEATHER: The forecast in Miami is calling for partialy cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 70s. Winds are expected to blow SSE at 6 mph.


* Huskies are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.
* Seminoles are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight bowl games.
* Under is 4-1 in Huskies last five bowl games.
* Under is 8-1 in Seminoles last nine non-conference games.

ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (11-2, 7-1 ACC, 3-9 ATS): Quarterback EJ Manuel threw for 3,101 yards and running back James Wilder, Jr. scored two touchdowns in the ACC title game, but the Seminoles are defined by their defense. They’ve given up only 22 touchdowns while allowing 15.1 points per game. Florida State, which is 3-5 all-time in the Orange Bowl, ranked third in the country in pass defense (160.8 yards) and fourth in rushing defense (93 yards). The impressive secondary is led by Xavier Rhodes, Lamarcus Joyner and Ronald Darby, who was named the ACC’s top defensive freshman. Bjoern Werner, a 6-4, 255-pound defensive end, was named ACC Defensive Player of the Year after recording 13 sacks.

ABOUT NORTHERN ILLINOIS (12-1, 8-0 MAC, 9-2-2 ATS): The Huskies’ only loss came in their season opener when Iowa escaped with an 18-17 victory. Quarterback Jordan Lynch is a dual threat who leads the nation in total yards (4,733) and ranks third in total yards per game (364.08). In his last nine games, he owns a touchdown to interception ratio of 17-to-2, and he rushed for at least 100 yards in 12 games this season. Junior Akeem Daniels became a key part of the offense in the last two games, when he had 29 carries for 240 yards and five touchdowns. Alan Baxter collected a team-high 11 sacks for the Huskies’ defense, which held opponents to 19 points per game.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32918 Followers:38
01/01/2013 12:53 AM

Where the action is: New Year's Day bowl line moves

New Year’s Day is one of the biggest college football betting events of the year. We chat with oddsmakers at about the action coming in on the Jan. 1 games:

Gator Bowl: Northwestern Wildcats vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs

There is a sharp-versus-public split on this matchup. The public love for Northwestern has created a 2-to-1 bet count and a similar money-wagered differential for the Wildcats. There was sharp money at -2 in favor of Mississippi State, though. This may end up being a game that sheer public volume will eventually move the line.

The line value has bounced back and forth between the 1.5 and 2 values over the past few days with zero sharp money backing Northwestern yet. Public money has also pushed the total value around quite a bit from the opening 50.5 value all the way up to 52. Zero sharp money has come in backing the total over or under for this game.

Capital One Bowl: Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Georgia Bulldogs

Sharp and public money both backed Georgia at the -8 opening line value and continued through -9 and 9.5. The current line of -10 is still getting backed further by more public money. Currently, the bet count is a bit over 3-to-1 for the Bulldogs and money wagered is at about 4-to-1 favoring Georgia as well.

Sharp money is standing on both sides of the total with early action at over 58 and being bought back by other sharp money at the under 61, 60.5 and 60 total values.

Outback Bowl: Michigan Wolverines vs. South Carolina Gamecocks

This has been a lopsided betting affair from the opening line of South Carolina -3. Finally, at the current spread of +6, Michigan is seeing some buy-back love from bettors. For the most part though, the world is on South Carolina.

Sharps pounded this number early and often at -3 through -5 and the public piled on with bet count and deeper wager volumes pushing the line to -6. Currently, the bet count favors the Game Cocks a bit over 3-to-1 and money wagered is creeping towards 5-to-1 also favoring the SEC squad.

Rose Bowl: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Stanford Cardinal

A lot of two way action on this game from the sharp contingency with Stanford getting the nod at -6.5 and Wisconsin getting the nod at +7. The line is currently holding at -6.5 but we may get to +7 dog money depending on the incoming wagers and public volume for either team. This matchup more than likely will be a balanced decision for the books.

Orange Bowl: Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Florida State Seminoles

Sharp money backed Northern Illinois early at the +15.5 opening number and kept coming through the +14.5 to +14 values. At the current Florida State -13 line, the public has come in hard buying back the early sharp money position. Currently, the money is very balanced at this juncture but the bet count is leaning in favor of Florida State due to the public betting affection they are receiving.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32918 Followers:38
01/01/2013 10:49 AM

Top 5 NCAAF Trends


OKLST are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.


Under is 7-0 in PITT last 7 games on fieldturf.


Under is 5-0-1 in OKLST last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.


NWEST are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.


Under is 6-0 in MISST last 6 non-conference games

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32918 Followers:38
01/01/2013 10:54 AM

Wisconsin's Alvarez back in familiar Rose Bowl territory

LOS ANGELES -- Of all the coaches that have roamed the plush Pasadena sidelines in the Rose Bowl's 99-year history, Barry Alvarez may have made history this week. Wisconsin's athletic director and interim coach for Tuesday's matchup against Stanford may be the first to hire a new volleyball coach the week of the game.

As you may have heard, he conducted another coaching search earlier this month, one that resulted in Utah State's Gary Andersen becoming the Badgers' new football coach. Andersen has been here this week attending practices, but Alvarez -- Wisconsin's former 16-year head coach and three-time Rose Bowl champion -- has been running them.

"You've got to use all 24 hours," the 2010 College Football Hall of Fame inductee said of his dual roles. "I like to keep busy."

As Wisconsin (8-5) prepares to take on the eighth-ranked Cardinal (11-2) on Tuesday, Alvarez is fully immersed in his temporary head-coaching duties. While Bret Bielema's holdover staff (all of whom have stayed for the bowl) does most of the hands-on work, Alvarez is overseeing meetings and practices. He decides the team's daily schedule (they will see the movie Jack Reacher on Monday night). He will don a headset on the sideline Tuesday, and, as he's been doing throughout pre-bowl practices, he will give the team one last locker-room speech.

All of which comes naturally to a man who led the Badgers to victories here in 1994 (over UCLA), '99 (UCLA) and 2000 (Stanford), and, if he can pull the upset Tuesday, will tie Ohio State legend Woody Hayes for the most Rose Bowl wins by a Big Ten coach.

"This has been easy," he said. "Just give me a whistle. That's all I need is a whistle and a bunch of guys to coach, and I feel very comfortable with that."

Alvarez is quick to point out that, "I didn't choose myself [to coach the bowl game]. The players chose me." Bielema initially suggested the idea when he informed his boss Dec. 4 he was taking the Arkansas job, but Alvarez, in New York at the time for National Football Foundation functions, "didn't feel it was proper to name myself the coach." But when Badgers linebacker and co-captain Mike Taylor called on behalf of the players and asked him to coach them, Alvarez didn't take even a moment to think it over.

"I was flattered and I was honored," he said. "But come on, coach one game, the Rose Bowl? That's the most fun game I've ever coached. There's nothing like it. It's like giving me an early Christmas present."

MANDEL: Breaking down the Rose Bowl matchup

Like most Big Ten coaches, Alvarez holds a special reverence for the Grandaddy, having coached in the game twice as an assistant at Iowa in the 1980s and three times with the Badgers. As athletic director, he accompanied Bielema's teams to Pasadena the past two seasons. Miffed in general by Bielema's defection, you can tell it particularly dumbfounds him that the coach of a Rose Bowl-bound team would bolt for another job.

"No one has ever won the right to go to the Rose Bowl and not coached in it," said Alvarez. "So it never crossed my mind that it would happen." (Technically, that's not true. Michigan's Bo Schembechler suffered a heart attack the day before the 1970 game and spent it in the hospital.)

Alvarez spent the first couple of weeks of December crisscrossing the country to interview coaching candidates (for both football and volleyball) in between practice days on campus. Almost immediately, he felt "invigorated" being back on the practice field, and at one point, still hoping to retain much of Bielema's staff but unable to promise them jobs before hiring a new coach, he seriously contemplated staying on for another year.

"Emotionally, I was really struggling with that," he said. "I went home and told my wife, I said, 'Cindy, I think I should stay on for another year. Besides that, we'll be a good team next year.' And she said, 'Well, you'll be in the same boat a year from now. And you can't do it for one year. You'd have to do it for three.' And I didn't think I could do that. I couldn't do it at the pace that I want to do it.

"So that lasted about 12 hours."

In the meantime, Alvarez's return to the sideline has proven a healing and unifying moment for a program that's gone through unprecedented upheaval over the past 12 months.

Following last January's loss here to Oregon, six of Bielema's nine assistants left for other jobs. One of the replacements, offensive line coach Mike Markuson, was fired after one game, replaced by 27-year-old graduate assistant Bart Miller. It's been reported that Bielema and first-year offensive coordinator Matt Canada clashed over the direction of the offense, which unexpectedly struggled early in the year. The Badgers, 32-8 the previous three seasons, finished the regular season just 7-5, including 4-4 in the Big Ten, but returned to the Big Ten championship game Dec. 1 due to Ohio State's and Penn State's ineligibility, where their previously underperforming offense unexpectedly steamrolled 10-2 Nebraska, 70-31, to earn a third straight trip to Pasadena.

And then, three days later, seven-year coach Bielema stunned Alvarez and the entire college football world by leaving for Arkansas.

At most schools, the athletic director would have installed one of the coordinators -- either Canada (who's heading to NC State) or Chris Ash (who will soon join Bielema in Fayetteville) -- to serve as interim coach for the bowl game. But at most schools the athletic director isn't a beloved former coach still closely connected to the sport. Most of Wisconsin players -- some of whom jokingly refer to him as "The Godfather" -- have known Alvarez longer than most of the staff.

"Having an opportunity to play with a Rose Bowl Hall of Fame coach in the Rose Bowl is something we're all excited about," said Badgers quarterback Curt Phillips. "He's brought a lot of confidence and a sense of swagger to the team that I think guys have responded to well and really rallied around."

Several players this week used that word "swagger" to describe Alvarez's demeanor. He speaks and acts like a man who knows full well that he knows what he's doing. He kept binders of notes from his previous Rose Bowl trips and is following much the same blueprint, much of which centers around ensuring the players have fun here. Practices are shorter (by 30 to 45 minutes) and crisper than they were under Bielema, and on Friday, when heavy rain hit L.A., Alvarez shelved practice altogether. However, the Badgers also held a live scrimmage with hitting their second day here, uncommon for bowl teams.

Mostly, he believes the bowl trip should be a reward, not a chore, and he's got a 3-0 record (and 8-3 overall in bowls) to show it works.

"One thing that is different that we enjoy is just the way Coach Alvarez talks to us," said star running back Montee Ball. "his swagger that he brings to practices, before his speeches and during his speeches and all that stuff is something we really enjoy. We all are most definitely looking forward to his pregame speech. We hear he does a great job with that."

We can probably guess a few elements of that speech. First and foremost, Alvarez will likely stress the importance of winning this Rose Bowl after falling short the past two years. He'll emphasize to the players their chance to prove to the nation they're better than their 8-5 record indicates. He'll surely tell them that few give them a chance to beat the higher-ranked Cardinal (though football sabermetrics types would strongly disagree).

But don't be surprised if he also includes a message about appreciating one more opportunity to play in an event he holds so dear. Alvarez for one is cherishing his unexpected encore.

"There's nothing like taking the field at the Rose Bowl," he said. "It's the most beautiful venue in all of sport, I think. I'll be just as thrilled as the first time I took it when I take the field this time."

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32918 Followers:38
01/01/2013 10:59 AM

NCAAF Consensus Picks

January 1, 2013 »

Sides (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

12:00 PM Purdue +17 938 31.54% Oklahoma State -17 2036 68.46% View View

1:00 PM Nebraska +8 1029 33.25% Georgia -8 2066 66.75% View View

12:00 PM Mississippi State -1 1125 36.17% Northwestern +1 1985 63.83% View View

8:30 PM Northern Illinois +14.5 1297 42.95% Florida State -14.5 1723 57.05% View View

5:00 PM Wisconsin +5 1428 46.79% Stanford -5 1624 53.21% View View

1:00 PM South Carolina -5 1833 59.44% Michigan +5 1251 40.56% View View


Totals (Over/Under)

Time Away Total Home Over Pct Under Pct Detail Odds

1:00 PM Nebraska 62 Georgia 1111 54.27% 936 45.73% View View

1:00 PM South Carolina 46.5 Michigan 1117 55.13% 909 44.87% View View

5:00 PM Wisconsin 47.5 Stanford 1139 56.19% 888 43.81% View View

12:00 PM Purdue 68.5 Oklahoma State 1252 59.96% 836 40.04% View View

12:00 PM Mississippi State 54.5 Northwestern 1240 60.90% 796 39.10% View View

8:30 PM Northern Illinois 59.5 Florida State 1250 63.61% 715 36.39% View View

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32918 Followers:38
01/01/2013 11:11 AM

Tuesday, January 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Mississippi State - 12:00 PM ET Mississippi State -1 500

Northwestern - Under 54.5 500

Purdue - 12:00 PM ET Oklahoma State -17 500

Oklahoma State - Under 68.5 500

Nebraska - 1:00 PM ET Georgia -8 500

Georgia - Over 62 500

South Carolina - 1:00 PM ET South Carolina -4.5 500

Michigan - Over 47 500

My Bowl Game of the Year Will Be Posted Later....

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32918 Followers:38
01/01/2013 04:34 PM

Here you go......the line moved in our favor......going to use all 4 in a parlay....

Parlay of the Year

Wisconsin - 5:00 PM ET Stanford -4 500 GOY

Stanford - Over 47 500

Northern Illinois - 8:30 PM ET Florida State -14 500

Florida State - Over 59 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32918 Followers:38
01/01/2013 11:10 PM

Totals are killing me with these last two games......owell tomorrow is another day.....look for another BIG Play tomorrow.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: