cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
12/15/2012 12:29 PM

Saturday, December 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Nevada - 1:00 PM ET Arizona -8.5 500

Arizona - Under 79 500

Toledo - 4:30 PM ET Utah State -10.5 500

Utah State - Over 58.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
12/21/2012 06:03 PM

70 helpful stats you didn't know for 70 bowl teams

If you're aiming to handicap all 35 bowl games in record time, this is the article for you. We dug to find you one helpful stat for every bowl team on the betting board. We listed them by matchup in chronological order.

New Mexico Bowl

Nevada – Nation’s second-best rusher Stefphon Jefferson (1703 yards).
Arizona – Nation’s top rusher Ka’Deem Carey (1757 yards).

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Toledo – Linebacker Dan Molls led the nation in tackles this season with 166.
Utah State – Third-most profitable team in college this year at 10-1-1 ATS (against the spread).

Poinsettia Bowl

BYU – No. 1 red zone efficiency defense in the nation.
San Diego State – Went 6-1 ATS during its current seven-game winning streak.

Beef O'Brady's Bowl

Ball State – Led the nation in tackles for loss allowed with just 40 against.
Central Florida – Quincy McDuffie leads the nation in kickoff return yards per game (34.2) and tied for most return TDs with three.

New Orleans Bowl

East Carolina: Lost all three meetings with non-conference FBS opponents, going 0-3 ATS in those games.
UL Lafayette – Ragin Cajun’ are home run hitters, ranking tops in the country in plays of 70-plus yards from the line of scrimmage with eight.

Las Vegas Bowl

Washington – Tied for first in the nation in opponent fumbles per game (2.5) and recovered half of those (15 of 30).
Boise State – 4-0 ATS in its last four bowl games & recovered the most fumbles in the nation this season (17).

Hawaii Bowl

Fresno State - Senior Phillip Thomas led the nation in interceptions with eight and tied for tops in the nation with three returned for TDs.
SMU – The Mustangs tied for the most interception return TDs with six this season. SMU finished tied for sixth with 19 INTs.

Little Caesar's Bowl

Western Kentucky - Antonio Andrews was nation's leading all purpose runner with 2977 yards this year.
Central Michigan – RB Zurlon Tipton has rushed for over 100 yards in six straight games, with CMU going 4-2 ATS.

Military Bowl

San Jose State - No. 2 passing efficiency offense (in terms of percentage) in the country (71.29).
Bowling Green – In addition to being the most profitable under team this year (1-10 O/U) the Falcons have only one win over a team with a winning record this season – 8-4 Ohio.

Belk Bowl

Cincinnati – Bearcats are 2-7 ATS in bowl games since 2000.
Duke: The Blue Devils haven’t been to a bowl game since the 1994 Hall of Fame Bowl.

Holiday Bowl

Baylor - Bear have the best total offense in the nation with 578 yards per game.
UCLA – Bruins ranks 91st against the pass and have allowed at least 295 yards through the air in five of 13 games.

Independence Bowl

La. Monroe - Only three teams in the country lost fewer fumbles this season (lost four).
Ohio – Bobcats have failed to cover in seven of their last eight games.

Russell Athletic Bowl

Rutgers - Worst first-down offense of all bowl teams with an average of just 16.7 ypg.
Virgina Tech – Defense allowed an average of 417 yards and 33.5 points against in road games this year compared to 334 yards and 23.9 points against at home.

Meineke Car Car Bowl

Minnesota – Only seven current Gophers played in the team’s last bowl game in 2009.
Texas Tech - Second-best passing offense in the nation with 361 yards per game.

Armed Forces Bowl

Rice - Leads all bowl teams in time of possession at 33:40.58 (Second in FBS).
Air Force - Falcons' triple-option attack leads all bowl teams with an average of 328.75 yards on the ground per game.

Pinstripe Bowl

Syracuse – The over went 5-0-1 in the Orange’s last six games and they averaged 38.5 points per game during that stretch.
West Virginia – Second-worst pass defense in the nation, behind only Louisiana Tech.

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl

Arizona State - Second in the nation in sacks (48) and tackles for loss (106.0).
Navy - Second worst of all bowl teams in third-down efficiency defense 47.4 percent (behind only Baylor).

Alamo Bowl

Texas – Ranked ninth this year in pass efficiency but was undecided on its starting QB for the third straight year heading into its bowl game.
Oregon State – Ranked second in the Pac-12 in scoring defense (17.8 points against per game) but last four games with a posted total went over.

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

TCU – Ranked first in the Big 12 in total defense with just 332 yards against per game
Michigan State – Went 2-5 SU and ATS in a stretch of an NCAA-record-tying seven straight games decided by four points or fewer.

Music City Bowl

North Carolina State - Worst rushing offense of all bowl teams (117 yards per game).
Vanderbilt – Ranked first in the SEC in tackles for loss.

Sun Bowl

USC – Didn’t rank higher than 29th in the nation in any major offensive category and didn’t rank higher than 41st in any major defensive category.
Georgia Tech – Went 0-3 SU and ATS against non-conference FBS foes this year.

Liberty Bowl

Iowa State – Didn’t hold any of its last nine opponents to fewer than 21 points.
Tulsa – Ranks 11th in the nation in rushing, but both teams tied with 160 rushing yards in their September meeting.

Chick-Fil-A Bowl

LSU – Ranked in the Top 11 in the nation in rushing defense, pass efficiency defense, total defense and scoring defense.
Clemson - Second in the nation in red-zone efficiency offense (scored on 51 of 54 red zone drives).

Heart of Dallas Bowl

Purdue – Won three straight games but is the biggest underdog of this bowl season.
Oklahoma State – Over went 5-1 in Cowboys games with a total of 70 or higher this season.

Gator Bowl

Mississippi State – Had the best turnover margin in the SEC.
Northwestern – Tied with Fresno State as the most profitable team in the nation for bettors at 11-1 ATS.

Outback Bowl

South Carolina – Under is 4-0 in South Carolina’s last four bowl games.
Michigan - Threw most INTs among bowl teams this season with 18.

Capital One Bowl

Nebraska - No. 2 pass efficiency defense in the nation.
Georgia - Linebacker Jarvis Jones led the nation in forced fumbles (7) and tackles for loss (22.5).

Rose Bowl

Stanford - Led the nation in tackles for loss with 120.0 and sacks with 56.
Wisconsin - Worst red-zone efficiency defense in the nation (allowed scores on 27 of 29 drives).

Orange Bowl

Northern Illinois – Underdogs for just the second time this season. Lost 18-17 to Iowa as a 7.5-pt dog Sept. 1
Florida State – Tied among bowl teams for the worst ATS record at 3-9.

Sugar Bowl

Louisville - Led the nation in red-zone efficiency offense (scored on 48 of 50 drives).
Florida - Worst passing offense of all bowl teams that don't run a triple-option style offense (114th in the nation, 143.9 yards per game).

Fiesta Bowl

Oregon - Second-highest scoring team in the nation with 50.8 points per game.
Kansas State – Led the nation in punt returns, kickoff returns and turnover margin.

Cotton Bowl

Texas A&M – Ranked first in the SEC in passing, rushing, total offense and scoring – yet was an under team with a 4-6 over/under record.
Oklahoma – First time the Sooners have been underdogs to Texas A&M since 1999, breaking a string of 12 straight meetings where Oklahoma was favored (OU won that game 51-6 as 3.5-pt dogs).

Compass Bowl

Pittsburgh - Tied for first in the nation in fewest turnovers lost this year (8).
Mississippi – The most profitable team in the SEC this season at 9-3 ATS. Bowl

Kent State - Tied for tops in the nation in turnovers gained with 38.
Arkansas State – Hasn’t been held to fewer than 34 points during its current seven-game winning streak (6-1 ATS).

BCS National Championship

Alabama – Ranked 84th in the nation in passing offense, but first in the nation in passing efficiency.
Notre Dame – Second best under team in the nation at 2-10 over/under behind only Bowling Green (1-10 O/U).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
12/21/2012 06:07 PM

Beef 'O'Brady's Bowl Matches Up UCF With Ball State

Ball State Cardinals vs. Central Florida Knights
Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl Betting Preview
Date: 12/21/2012 at 7:30 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: UCF -7½, O/U 63
Television: ESPN

Ball State Cardinals: A second-place finish in the MAC West sends the Cards (9-3 straight-up, 9-3 against the spread) to the Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl in St. Petersburg against Central Florida. It's the first bowl appearance since the 2008 campaign when BSU went to the GMAC Bowl vs. Tulsa. Ball State ended the 2012 campaign with six consecutive wins, covering five of those victories. The Cardinals have injury concerns at quarterback where starter Keith Wenning is probable after missing the regular-season finale at Miami-OH with an ankle injury (click to check updated college football injury report). Backup Kelly Page is questionable with a concussion suffered in the win over Miami. A strong ground game is BSU's calling card with the team averaging 214.3 yards rushing per game. Sophomore Jahwan Edwards accounts for about half that figure with 110 yards per contest (21st in country). Ball State won the last meeting between these clubs in 2004, scoring a 21-17 victory at home to just cover the 3½-point spread.

UCF Knights: Runner-ups in Conference USA, Central Florida (9-4 SU, 6-7 ATS) suffered two tough losses to champion Tulsa in the final three games to fall just short of the title. The Knights bring a well-balanced offense into the contest, one reason behind 10 of their 13 games this campaign cashing for "over" bettors. Sophomore QB Blake Bortles directs the unit after completing over 62 percent of his passes this season for 2,787 yards and 22 TDs against seven interceptions. The ground attack features 1,000-yard rusher Latavius Murray, who averaged close to six yards per tote and scored 14 rushing touchdowns. Central Florida's defense ranked 42nd in the passing department, allowing less than 218 yards per game, and 29th in points allowed (22.5 per game). Each squad enters the game with solid "over" trends. Twelve of Ball State's last 17 contests have jumped the number while eight of Central Florida's last nine have gone past the mark.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
12/21/2012 06:09 PM

Ball St. clashes with UCF Friday in St. Pete

vs. UCF KNIGHTS (9-4)

Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl - St. Petersburg, FL
Kickoff: Friday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: UCF -7, Total: 62

Former MAC opponents meet for the first time since 2004, when Ball State challenges Central Florida in Friday's Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl in St. Petersburg.

The Cardinals have won six straight games (5-1 ATS), but have serious injury issues on the offensive line and with starters QB Keith Wenning (ankle) and WR Jamill Smith (foot) both less than 100 percent. Ball State has both scored and allowed at least 22 points in every game this year. UCF is 7-2 SU in its past nine contests with both losses coming to Tulsa by a combined eight points. Knights QB Blake Bortles has thrown for 15 TD and just 2 INT in his past 10 games. That most recent meeting in 2004 was a 21-17 Ball State win, but the Cardinals have never won a bowl game, getting outscored 37-19 on average in these five losses. UCF won the 2010 Liberty Bowl 10-6 over Georgia just one year after playing in the St. Petersburg Bowl.

Can Ball State finally win its first-ever bowl game? For the answer, download your FREE copy of the StatFox Edge College Bowl Guide for all the StatFox Experts picks for each of the 35 bowls, both Against The Spread and Over/Under.

Wenning ranks third in the MAC with 273 total YPG, but he hasn't thrown for 300 yards in any of his team's six straight victories. He does have at least 2 TD passes in each of the past four games though, totaling 10 TD and 5 INT. However, Ball State prefers to pound the football, averaging 214 rushing YPG, which ranks 3rd in the MAC and 23rd in the nation. The Cardinals have rushed for at least 165 yards in each of their six straight wins, averaging 229 YPG on 4.9 YPC. Sophomore Jahwan Edwards (110 rush YPG) is the main ball carrier, rumbling for 786 yards (63 YPC) and 9 TD over the past six games. Fellow sophomore RB Horactio Banks has also been running strong with 215 yards on 36 carries (6.0 YPC) in the past two weeks. These running backs have helped BSU's injury-riddled offensive line maintain its excellent 0.8 sacks allowed per game (T-9th in FBS). Ball State's defense continues to give up big chunks of yardage though, ranking 105th in the nation in total defense (460 YPG), and 108th against the run (206 YPG). The Cardinals have allowed more than 300 rushing yards in three of their past seven games and have forced exactly one turnover in each of the past four contests.

Bortles has thrown for 8 TD and 0 INT during the past five games, while rushing for another four scores. This has helped keep the Knights balanced in their pass/run selection and the team has committed just three turnovers in these five games combined. The offense continues to revolve around MAC leading rusher Latavius Murray (104 rush YPG) who has scored at least one touchdown in each of the past eight games. During this stretch, he's averaged 133 total YPG (897 rushing, 164 receiving) with 15 TD. Another hero for this team has been WR/KR Quincy McDuffie who leads the nation with 34.2 yards per kick return, running three kicks back for touchdowns this year. Defensively, UCF has allowed 23+ points in each of the past four games, giving up more than 200 rushing yards in three of these contests. But the Knights have been better defending the pass, holding seven opponents to 165 passing yards or less. They don't put a lot of pressure on opposing quarterbacks though, with a mere 1.8 sacks per game.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
12/21/2012 06:11 PM


Friday, December 21

Beef O'Brady's Bowl: What bettors need to know

Beef O'Brady's Bowl: UCF Knights vs. Ball State Cardinals (+7, 61.5)


1. Ball State began the season 3-3 and has won six straight games since, while Central Florida was victorious in two of its first four games before finishing 7-2.

2. Jahwan Edwards of Ball State and Central Florida’s Latavius Murray have each rushed for more than 1,000 yards and 14 touchdowns. The Cardinals average 214.3 yards and UCF 178.7 on the ground.

3. Ball State has won four games with scores in the last two minutes of regulation or in overtime. Central Florida is 2-3 in games decided by seven points or less.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Central Florida opened as a touchdown favorite and has remained steady. The total has also stood pat at 61.5 points.

CONSENSUS: Fifty-six percent of Covers Consensus picks are on Ball State while 58 percent are on the over.


* Knights are 5-2 ATS in their last seven vs. MAC.
* Cardinals are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 non-conference games.
* Under is 7-2 in Knights' last nine vs. MAC.
* Over is 4-1-1 in Cardinals' last six non-conference games.

ABOUT BALL STATE (9-3, 6-2 MAC, 9-3 ATS): The Cardinals are tied for the third most victories in the program’s history, thanks to a productive offense. Ball State’s losses are to Clemson, Northern Illinois and Kent State - who combined for a 33-5 record - and the Cardinals have averaged 31 points in those games. Quarterback Keith Wenning, who is probable with an Achilles injury which kept him out of the last regular-season game, has completed 65.5 percent of his passes and thrown for 22 touchdowns while averaging 261.2 yards. Willie Snead is the top target with 82 receptions and 1,070 yards and 135-pound Jamill Smith has 69 for 706. Edwards, who has totaled of 1,321 yards, keys a ground game that has produced more than 220 yards in four of the last five games. Linebacker Travis Freeman is the nation’s active leader in career tackles with 455. Ball State is 0-5 in bowl games and plays in its first since the 2008-09 season.

ABOUT CENTRAL FLORIDA (9-4, 7-1 C-USA, 6-7 ATS): The Knights have lost to undefeated Ohio State, bowl-bound Tulsa twice and Missouri – three of those by six points or less. Central Florida, which has won one of three games all time against Ball State, has been balanced by scoring 31 times on the ground and 25 through the air. Murray has 1,035 yards rushing in 10 games. Quarterback Blake Bortles has thrown 22 touchdown passes with only seven interceptions – three less than his counterpart. Bortles averages more than 200 yards and has completed 62.6 percent of his passes. J.J. Worton, Rannell Hall and Jeff Godfrey all have at least 31 receptions and 400 yards, combining for 11 scores. Central Florida is tied for 16th in the nation in turnover margin plus .85). The Knights are 1-3 in bowl games, winning their last against Georgia in the 2010 Liberty Bowl. They lost to Rutgers 45-24 in the 2009 Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
12/21/2012 06:12 PM

Friday, December 21


BALL ST (9 - 3) vs. UCF (9 - 4) - 12/21/2012, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALL ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
BALL ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
BALL ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


Friday, December 21

7:30 PM
Ball State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Ball State's last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Central Florida's last 9 games
Central Florida is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games



Game 207-208: Central Florida vs. Ball State (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 95.374; Ball State 83.632
Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 11 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Central Florida by 7; 61 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (-7); Under

Friday, December 21, 2012

Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl
Ball State vs. Central Florida, 7:30 ET ESPN
Ball State: 6-0 ATS off a road win
Central Florida: 9-1 Over as a favorite

Friday, December 21

Beef O'Brady Bowl (St Petersburg)
First bowl for Ball State since their 12-2 season in '08; they lost last two bowls, 52-30/45-13, are 0-5 all-time (1-2 vs spread). 90-minute trip west for UCF, which lost 45-24 (+2) in this game to Rutgers three years ago; Knights are 1-3 in bowls- they beat Georgia 10-6 in Liberty Bowl two years ago, their last bowl. Ball State won last six games after a 3-3 start; losing side scored 26+ points in 8 of their 12 games. Cardinals are 4-1 vs spread as an underdog this year; UCF is 5-5 as a favorite. 10 of 13 UCF games went over total; Cardinals allowed 400+ TY in nine of 12 games. MAC dogs are 17-15 vs spread, 13-11 on road. C-USA favorites are 4-6 vs spread this season. Indoor game, so weather not an issue. Favorites covered three of previous four O'Brady games, with C-USA teams 1-3 in those games, but all three losses were to Big East teams.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
12/21/2012 06:16 PM

Friday, December 21

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Central Florida - 7:30 PM ET Ball State +7 500 POD

Ball State - Over 61.5 500 POD TOTAL

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
12/22/2012 11:08 AM

Las Vegas Bowl preview

December 21, 2012

BOISE STATE BRONCOS (10-2) vs. WASHINGTON HUSKIES (7-5) Line & Total: Boise State -5.5 & 44.5
Opening Line & Total: Broncos -5.5 & 46

No. 20 Boise State returns to a familiar place when it battles Washington in Saturday's Las Vegas Bowl.

This is the third straight Las Vegas Bowl for the Broncos who have outscored opponents 99-37 during a three-game bowl win streak. This matchup features two schools that each scored 56 points last bowl season, but the Huskies surrendered 67 points in a loss to Baylor, while Boise State allowed just 24 to Arizona State.

Washington is just 2-4 both straight up and against the spread in non-home games, losing to 14-point underdog Washington State in the regular season finale. The Broncos are 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) away from the blue turf with the lone loss coming in August by just four points at Michigan State. The Huskies turned things around after a 3-4 start to the season, reeling off four consecutive wins (both SU and ATS) before losing to Washington State in overtime in the season finale in one of those throw-out-the-records-when-these-teams-face-each-other rivalry games. They won each of the first three games of that four-game win streak despite being an underdog in each of them, beating an Oregon State team that had previously been undefeated, then winning by 8 at California before blowing out Utah by 19 at home.

Although Boise State isn't the high-octane offense that it was under departed QB Kellen Moore (44.7 PPG in 2010-2011), the school still put up 30.4 PPG and 390 total YPG with Joe Southwick under center. And the junior is playing his best football late in the year, completing 53-of-75 passes (71%) for 624 yards (8.3 YPA), 7 TD and 0 INT in leading his team to three straight victories. RB D.J. Harper (1,065 rush yds, 15 TD) is the focal point of this Broncos offense with six 100-yard rushing games, including two in row.

The Broncos defense has been top-notch all year, ranking ninth in the FBS in total defense (305 YPG) and sixth in scoring defense (14.9 PPG). DE Demarcus Lawrence (9.5 sacks, 13.5 TFL) anchors a stout front four while senior LB J.C. Percy mans with the middle with a team-best 101 total tackles (61 solo). The secondary has also performed at a high level, giving up just 163 passing YPG, which is tied for the 4th-fewest in the nation. Boise State has allowed a mere three TD passes all year while picking off 16 passes.

This Boise defense could create a lot of problems for Washington QB Keith Price who has majorly regressed in his junior season with 15 fewer passing TD and a considerably lower passing efficiency (124.48, 77th in FBS) than in 2011 (161.93 rating, 7th in FBS). The Huskies are trying to shake off a tough loss to rival Washington State, when they relinquished an 18-point lead in the fourth quarter and lost 31-28 in overtime. Price had a key fumble in the final quarter and then threw an interception in the extra session to seal his team's fate. There have been no complaints about the job RB Bishop Sankey has done in replacing departed star RB Chris Polk this year. Sankey (1,234 rush yds, 15 TD) has rushed for more than 80 yards in nine of the past 10 games, topping 100 yards in six of those contests. In the past four games, Sankey has totaled 637 yards from scrimmage (159 YPG) with 6 TD runs.

The loss to WSU ended a four-game win streak where the defense allowed just 48 points combined (12.0 PPG). This unit has made tremendous strides since last bowl season when they allowed 67 points and 777 total yards in the Alamo Bowl loss to Baylor. The Huskies give up just 23.8 PPG and 353 total YPG for the season, a huge improvement from the 453 total YPG and 35.9 PPG from 2011. In the past five games, the Huskies have forced 19 turnovers (3.8 per week).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
12/22/2012 11:13 AM

College Bowl Trends - Part I

December 21, 2012

Saturday, Dec. 22
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

EAST CAROLINA vs. LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (New Orleans Bowl)...ULL returns to the sight of its exciting bowl win over San Diego State last December. Ragin' Cajuns 4-2 vs. line away from Lafayette this season, 17-4 in that role since 2010 campaign. Ruffin McNeill's ECU only 2-6 vs. spread its last eight away from Greenville. Louisiana, based on team trends.

WASHINGTON vs. BOISE STATE (Las Vegas Bowl)...Boise's third straight Las Vegas Bowl, won and covered handily the past two years. Chris Petersen has covered last four and five of six bowls since taking over as Bronco coach in 2006. Boise 26-8 vs. number away from blue carpet since 2008 season. Huskies just 4-8 vs. line away since 2011, and U-Dub 1-1 SU and vs. line in bowls under Steve Sarkisian. Boise State, based on road and bowl marks.

Monday, Dec. 24
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

SMU vs. FRESNO STATE (Sheraton Bowl)...Fresno was a pointspread revelation this season, covering 11 of its 12 games on the board. Bulldogs also 4-0 vs. spread outside of Mountain West and are 7-1 vs. spread last eight away from Bulldog Stadium. June Jones just 1-4 vs. line away from Dallas this season and 2-7 vs. spread last nine on road since mid 2011. Fresno State, based on team trends.

Wednesday, Dec. 26
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY (Little Caesars Bowl)...Chippewas closed with a flourish by winning and covering their last three and four of their last five this season. Previously, CMU had been a pointspread disaster, dropping 24 of previous 32 decisions vs. number. WKU went in mostly the opposite direction, its 17-game spread win streak snapped near midseason and dropping four of last six vs. spread. But Hilltoppers have covered all 12 of their spread decisions away from Bowling Green since 2011! Western Kentucky, based on extended team trends.

Thursday, Dec. 27
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

BOWLING GREEN vs. SAN JOSE STATE (Military Bowl)...San Jose has been on quite a pointspread run since last season, covering last four and ten of twelve in 2012, 13 of last 15 since late 2011, and 18 of last 22 on board since early 2011. Spartans have also covered their last eight away from home. Bowling Green also closed fast in 2012 with covers in seven of its last eight games this season. Falcs have lost and failed to cover their last two bowls and haven't won and covered in a bowl game since 2004 against Memphis in GMAC Bowl. San Jose State, based on team trends.

CINCINNATI vs. DUKE (Belk Charlotte Bowl)...First Duke bowl game since Fred Goldsmith's 1994 Blue Devils faced Wisconsin and lost to Badgers 34-20 in Hall of Fame (now Outback) Bowl in Tampa; prior to that, Duke hadn't "bowled" since 1989 under Steve Spurrier and hasn't won a bowl since beating Arkansas 7-6 in the 1961 Cotton Bowl! Blue Devils closed slowly this season by losing and failing to cover their last four games, but HC David Cutcliffe is 2-0 SU in bowls dating to his Ole Miss days. Cutcliffe is 5-1 vs. line last six against non-ACC opposition. Duke, based on team trends.

BAYLOR vs. UCLA (Holiday Bowl)...Baylor closed season on an uptick with covers in its last five games, and Bears 16-8 overall vs. number the last two season. Art Briles only 1-3 SU in bowl games, however. Bruins 8-5 vs. line in Jim Mora debut season. Slight to Baylor, based on team trends.

Friday, Dec. 28
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

OHIO vs. UL-MONROE (Independence Bowl, Friday)... Solich hit the skids vs. number as 2012 progressed, only 1-7 vs. spread last eight TY. Solich also no covers last four on road TY. Solich won and covered his bowl games last year (vs. Utah State) but previously was 0-3 SU and vs. line as bowl coach with the Bobcats. Meanwhile, ULM 6-1 vs. line away from home this season and 8-1 against spread last nine away from Malone Stadium since late 2011. UL-Monroe, based on team trends.

RUTGERS vs. VIRGINIA TECH (Russell Athletic Bowl)...Rutgers cooled off down the stretch this season, losing and failing to cover four of is last five games, but Beamer had more problems, only 3-9 against the line this season. Hokies only 7-20 last 27 games on board since late in 2010 campaign, and Beamer only 4-7 vs. spread last his last 11 bowl games. Scarlet Knights 16-9 vs. number overall since 2011. Rutgers, based on recent Beamer spread woes.

MINNESOTA vs. TEXAS TECH (Meineke Texas Bowl)...Rematch of 2006 Insight Bowl when Minnesota blew a huge lead to lose in OT and Glen Mason was dismissed after the game. Gophers last bowled in 2009 but have lost four straight in postseason (1-3 vs. line in those) since 20-16 win over Alabama in 2004 Liberty Bowl. Texas Tech again faded down stretch, no covers last five this season, and Red Raiders1-9 vs. spread last five games of the past two campaigns. Minnesota, based on Texas Tech late-season fade numbers.

Saturday, Dec. 29
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

AIR FORCE vs. RICE (Armed Forces Bowl)... Air Force has covered its last three bowl games after Troy Calhoun lost and failed to cover his first two in postseason. Four of the Calhoun bowl games have been in this Armed Forces Bowl. But Falcs really backed up down the stretch in 2012 with no covers in last four games and just 3-9 overall vs. spread this season. Falcs just 12-23 overall last 35 vs. number since early in 2010 season. Rice won four of last five SU this season and covered five of its last six for David Bailiff. Rice, based on team trends.

NAVY vs. ARIZONA STATE (Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl)...Navy dropped its last four vs. the number in 2012 but has covered in five of its last seven bowl. Mids also 20-12 vs. spread as dog since 2007, and Navy 26-13 vs. spread its last 39 as a dog dating to the middle of the 2004 season. ASU cooled off after a quick start this season and dropped 4 of its last six vs. the number, and Sun Devils have not covered in their last four bowls (last bowl cover in 2004 Sun Bowl vs. Purdue). Navy, based on extended team and bowl trends.

WEST VIRGINIA vs. SYRACUSE (Yankee Pinstripe Bowl)...Former Big East rivals! Cuse won meetings the past two seasons as DD underdog on both occasions. Orange also closed this season hot, winning and covering five of last six. WVU earned covers in its last three but had dropped 6 of previous 7 vs. number this season. Syracuse, based on recent trends.

OREGON STATE vs. TEXAS (Alamo Bowl)... Mack Brown only 4-7 vs. number last 11 bowls, while Mike Riley 5-1 SU and 4-2 vs. line in bowls with OSU since 2003. Texas 15-24 last 38 vs. spread since late 2009. Beavers 9-2 vs. line this season and 4-1 vs. line on road in 2012. Oregon State, based on team and extended bowl trends.

TCU vs. MICHIGAN STATE (Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl)...Mark Dantonio 1-4 SU, 2-3 vs. spread in bowl games with MSU since 2007. Spartans only 4-8 vs. line this season but did cover 4 of 5 away from East Lansing (MSU was terrible 0-7 vs. spread as host this season) and are 9-3 against spread last 12 away from Spartan Stadium. Note Gary Patterson is 3-1 SU but 0-4 vs. line in last four bowls, and Frogs have won 6 of last 7 bowl games SU. Slight to TCU, based on recent bowl SU record.

Monday, Dec. 31
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

NC STATE vs. VANDERBILT (Music City Bowl)... NCS has covered its last seven bowls which extends to the Amato and O'Brien regimes. Pack only 1-5 vs. line away from Raleigh this season but extended dog mark is good (11-6-1 since 2010, 28-16-1 since 2007 receiving points). Vandy 9-4 vs. points in 2012 and 18-8 vs. line under James Franklin since 2011, although Dores failed to cover bowl last year vs. Cincy. NC State, based on extended bowl numbers.

GEORGIA TECH vs. SOUTHERN CAL (Sun Bowl)... SC subpar 3-9 vs. number this season and 0-6 against number away from Coliseum. Lane Kiffin 0-1 in bowls (2009 with Tennessee against Virginia Tech in Chick fil-A Bowl). Trojans just 19-30 last 49 on board since early 2009. Paul Johnson 0-4 vs. line in bowls at GT but covered 3 of 4 in bowls with GT. Jackets 8-5 vs. line in 2012. Georgia Tech, based on SC road woes.

IOWA STATE vs. TULSA (Liberty Bowl)...Rematch from ISU's 38-23 in opener of 2012 season at Ames. Tulsa 4-2 SU and vs. line last six bowl games, and Blankenship 13-7 vs. spread last 20 on board since mid 2011. Slight to Tulsa, based on extended trends.

CLEMSON vs. LSU (Chick fil-A Bowl)...Les Miles 5-2 SU and vs. spread in bowls with LSU, although he did lose last year's BCS title game vs. Alabama. LSU only 1-3 vs. line as road favorite this season, but he was 10-4 vs. line away from Baton Rouge in 2010-11. Dabo only 5-5 as dog since 2010 (1-1 TY) and is just 1-3 SU and vs. line in bowls the past four seasons. LSU, based on team trends.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
12/22/2012 11:15 AM

ECU travels to New Orleans to face UL-Lafayette Saturday


New Orleans Bowl - New Orleans, LA
Kickoff: Saturday, 12:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Louisiana-Lafayette -5, Total: 65.5

Louisiana-Lafayette will end its season close to home once again when they play in their second straight New Orleans Bowl Saturday versus East Carolina.

Both teams enter this game with high-scoring, three-game win streaks. ECU has scored 47.0 PPG during its surge while ULL has 39.3 PPG during its three-game ride. However, the Pirates have been held to 20 points or less during a three-game bowl losing skid. The Ragin' Cajuns have appeared in just one bowl since 1970, winning last year's New Orleans Bowl 32-30 over SDSU with a Brett Baer 50-yard FG as time expired. East Carolina QB Shane Carden has 17 TD passes in his past seven games, while UL-Lafayette QB Terrence Broadway has 349 total YPG in his past seven contests.

Can Louisiana-Lafayette win a second straight New Orleans Bowl? For the answer, download your FREE copy of the StatFox Edge College Bowl Guide for all the StatFox Experts picks for each of the 35 bowls, both Against The Spread and Over/Under.

Carden averages a solid 243 total YPG, but that number has risen significantly in the past five games to 326 YPG. Although Carden prefers to stay in the pocket, he does have four rushing touchdowns in the past two games, including 3 TD in the 65-59 double overtime win over Marshall in the last game. ECU leaves most of the ground duty to RB Vintavious Cooper who ranks fifth in Conference USA with 86 rushing YPG. In the past five games, Cooper has rushed for 572 yards (114 YPG) on 5.4 YPC with seven total touchdowns. It's a good thing the offense has been so efficient lately, because ECU's defense has surrendered 40.2 PPG over the past five games including two 50-point outbursts. The passing defense has been burned all year (272 YPG, 108th in FBS), but the rushing defense (146 YPG, 46th in FBS) has been excellent over the past three games, allowing just 251 yards on 78 carries (3.2 YPC).

Broadway has been a true dual-threat QB during ULL's three-game win streak, completing 66% of his passes for 736 yards and 4 TDs, while rushing for 354 yards on just 42 carries (8.4 YPC) and 3 TD. He's the biggest reason the team has piled up 118 points (39.3 PPG) and 1,572 total yards (524 YPG) during the win streak. Sophomore RB Alonzo Harris is also producing nicely with back-to-back 100-yard games, totaling 231 yards on just 31 carries (7.5 YPC) with 3 TD. Harris rushed for a pedestrian 62 yards on 15 carries (4.1 YPC) in last year's New Orleans Bowl win over San Diego State. While the Cajuns offense is in good shape, the defense has some issues, especially defending the pass where they allow 284 passing YPG (10th-most in FBS). ULL's run defense has made great strides though, limiting the past five opponents to 138 rushing YPG on 4.3 YPC. The Ragin' Cajuns also rank second in the Sun Belt in both sacks (2.2 per game) and Tackles For Loss (6.5 per game).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: