cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
01/01/2013 12:18 AM

Northwestern tries to end long bowl drought Tuesday


Gator Bowl - Jacksonville, FL
Kickoff: Tuesday, 12:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Mississippi State -2, Total: 52

Northwestern tries to end an enormously long bowl drought when it takes on Mississippi State in the Gator Bowl in Jacksonville on New Year's Day.

Northwestern looks for its first bowl win since 1949, as the school has lost nine straight bowl games by an average margin of 13.4 PPG (42 to 29 avg. score). Mississippi State is just the opposite, riding a five-game bowl winning streak by an average margin of 12.6 PPG (29 to 16 avg. score). The Wildcats are just 4-3 SU since October, but are 11-1 ATS for the season. Venric Mark (109 rush YPG) leads the nation’s 11th-best ground game (231 YPG). The Bulldogs have dropped four of five (SU and ATS), surrendering 37+ points in each of the four losses. But they have a +17 turnover margin, forcing 3+ TO in seven games.

Can Northwestern finally earn its first bowl victory since 1949? For the answer, download your FREE copy of the StatFox Edge College Bowl Guide for all the StatFox Experts picks for each of the 35 bowls, both Against The Spread and Over/Under.

Northwestern hasn't been able to win any of its four straight bowl appearances, but it has covered the spread in three of those SU defeats. If it can finally end its nine-game bowl losing skid, it will win 10 games for the first time since the 1995 season. The game plan for Northwestern will likely be another heavy dose of Venric Mark who has eight 100-yard rushing games this season. He's also a great special teams contributor with two punt returns for touchdowns and 171 all-purpose YPG (9th in nation). Mark is the biggest reason why his team averages 231 rushing YPG on 5.0 YPC, but QB Kain Colter also knows how to scramble, rushing for 820 yards with a team-high 12 TD scampers. Although he attempts just 11.2 passes per game, Colter doesn't waste his opportunities with a 69% completion rate and 3 TD tosses in the regular season finale versus Illinois, a resounding 50-14 victory. Northwestern also uses sophomore QB Trevor Siemian under center for a good chunk of the time. He's played in every game, totaling 1,192 passing yards, 6 TD and 2 INT. The Wildcats defense is a bit underrated, especially in stopping the run where they rank 18th in the nation with just 124 rushing YPG allowed on 3.6 yards per carry. Although Northwestern allows a robust 262 passing YPG, it has picked off six passes over the past three contests.

Mississippi State began the season 7-0 SU (5-2 ATS), but ran into major trouble against elite SEC teams, losing to Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU by a combined score of 113 to 37. The Bulldogs also gave up 41 points in the season finale at rival Ole Miss. But when it comes to winning bowls, the Bulldogs are tied for the nation's longest streak with five straight wins, having not left a postseason game with a loss since 1999. Current head coach Dan Mullen has guided the team to two straight bowl wins, crushing Michigan in the 2011 Gator Bowl, 52-14, and edging Wake Forest 23-17 in last year's Music City Bowl. The big injury question for MSU is the status of QB Tyler Russell's sprained ankle he sustained in the loss to Ole Miss. He will start this game, but it's unclear how effective he'll be. Freshman QB Dak Prescott has proven to be a capable backup with four touchdown passes and four touchdown runs. Both quarterbacks will be looking for WR Chad Bumphis as the first option in the passing game, as the All-SEC performer has 904 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns this year. MSU's ground game isn't anything to brag about (140 YPG, 4.3 YPC), but LaDarius Perkins can be a dangerous ball carrier with 940 yards and 8 TD for the season, but he has gone four straight games without scoring a touchdown. One of Perkins' backups, sophomore RB Nick Griffin, tore his ACL in practice on Dec. 8, which could allow more carries for RBs Josh Robinson and Derrick Milton. On defense, MSU leans heavily on its secondary to make plays, most notably Jim Thorpe Award winner Johnthan Banks (59 tackles, 4 INT) and fellow senior Darius Slay (5 INT).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
01/01/2013 12:19 AM

Oklahoma State favored big over Purdue Tuesday


Heart of Dallas Bowl - Dallas, TX
Kickoff: Tuesday, 12:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma State -16.5, Total: 69.5

Purdue tries to keep its late-season surge going when it faces slumping Oklahoma State in Tuesday's Heart of Dallas Bowl.

Despite winning its final three games to become bowl eligible, Purdue fired head coach Danny Hope who will be replaced by wide receivers coach Patrick Higgins for this game. Oklahoma State enters this contest having lost two straight, allowing a total of 92 points and 1,233 yards in these defeats at Oklahoma and at Baylor. That dropped the Cowboys to just 1-4 (SU and ATS) in non-home games, as they allow 41.8 PPG and 523 total YPG outside of Stillwater. The Boilermakers are 3-2 ATS in non-home games, but score just 22.8 PPG in these away tilts.

Can Oklahoma State dominate Purdue and cover the hefty point spread? For the answer, download your FREE copy of the StatFox Edge College Bowl Guide for all the StatFox Experts picks for each of the 35 bowls, both Against The Spread and Over/Under.

Higgins isn’t running the team totally blind, as he has called plays during each of the past three wins, due to offensive coordinator Gary Nord injuring his back. Purdue scored 103 points (34.3 PPG) with Higgins calling the shots. The good news for OSU is that Purdue's offense is not in the same stratosphere as either Baylor or Oklahoma, surpassing 28 points just once in conference play this year, that being the season-ending 56-35 thumping of Indiana. Senior QB Robert Marve had a career day against the Hoosiers with 348 yards and 4 TD. Marve has shown great courage this season, playing through a torn ACL sustained earlier in the year. Purdue relies heavily on versatile RB Akeem Shavers (778 rush yds), who had season highs in both rushing (126) and receiving (99) yards while scoring three times against Indiana. The Boilers defense has been underwhelming this year, allowing 407 YPG (2nd-most in Big Ten) with 227 YPG coming through the air and 179 yards (4.7 yards per carry) on the ground. However, they do have All-American senior DT Kawann Short who has generated 14.5 Tackles for Loss and six sacks from his position in the middle of the field.

The Cowboys have been a disappointment this year, finishing with a 7-5 record on the heels of those final two defeats to Oklahoma and Baylor who scored 51 points and 41 points, respectively on OSU. But the Cowboys' offense has been potent all season, averaging 549 YPG (5th in FBS) despite having three different quarterbacks start under center. Junior Clint Chelf will start his fifth straight game after replacing freshman Wes Lunt who suffered a concussion. OSU's 333 passing YPG (7th in FBS) was pretty tremendous, but so was junior RB Joseph Randle who led the Big 12 with 1,351 rushing yards, reaching 100 yards in a game eight times. The Cowboys defense gives up 426 total YPG (286 passing, 141 rushing), which pales in comparison to the 600+ yards they have allowed in each of their two straight defeats to the high-powered Big 12 opponents.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
01/01/2013 12:21 AM

Red-hot South Carolina faces Michigan in Outback Bowl


Outback Bowl - Tampa, FL
Kickoff: Tuesday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: South Carolina -6, Total: 47.5

South Carolina brings a four-game win streak to Tampa in Tuesday's Outback Bowl to take on a Michigan team that is just 2-4 (SU and ATS) in non-home games this year.

Since losing star RB Marcus Lattimore to a knee injury, the Gamecocks have rushed for just 136 YPG on 3.2 YPC, but the defense has saved them by giving up just 14.7 PPG with eight forced turnovers in these three games. Wolverines star Denard Robinson will likely play running back again, trying to build on his 117 rushing YPG (14th in nation). Both defenses are fierce with South Carolina allowing 312 total YPG (12th in FBS) and Michigan giving up 311 total YPG (11th in FBS).

Can Michigan hang around with South Carolina on New Year's Day? For the answer, download your FREE copy of the StatFox Edge College Bowl Guide for all the StatFox Experts picks for each of the 35 bowls, both Against The Spread and Over/Under.

Michigan has played a brutal schedule with three of its four losses coming to the top-three teams in the nation (Notre Dame, Alabama and Ohio State). But its offense went south in its last game against OSU, failing to score a single point after halftime in a 26-21 defeat. The Wolverines will once again lean on Denard Robinson, who capped off a brilliant career (4,395 rush yds, 42 rush TD) with 1,166 rushing yards and 7 TD, plus 1,319 passing yards and 9 TD this season. He missed a couple of games due to an injury on his throwing elbow, which is why he's been stationed in the backfield instead of under center. Robinson has done pretty well as a running back, chewing up 220 yards on the ground in these past two games, but he may actually be able to throw the football in this game too with such a long layoff since Michigan's last game on Nov. 24. But if he can't throw very well, QB Devin Gardner has proven himself worthy of the starting job, passing for 1,005 yards with 8 TD and 4 INT since replacing Robinson. Defensively, Michigan allows just 155 passing YPG, but it will be missing starting CB J.T. Floyd who was suspended for this bowl game.

South Carolina also has a bit of a quarterback dilemma with Connor Shaw expected to be nearly 100 percent recovered from his foot injury. But Dylan Thompson had a great performance in the 27-17 win over Clemson in the regular season finale with 310 passing yards and 3 TD. Head coach Steve Spurrier has not announced his decision yet on who will start under center, but that player has the added burden of not having a star running back to keep the Wolverines honest. Marcus Lattimore was lost for the season a few games ago after suffering a major knee injury. Stud sophomore DE Jadeveon Clowney anchors a stout front four on defense, trying to build on his two school records of 13 sacks and 21.5 Tackles for Loss this season. He amassed 4.5 sacks in the win versus Clemson.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
01/01/2013 12:23 AM

Wisconsin battles Stanford in Rose Bowl


Rose Bowl - Pasadena, CA
Kickoff: Tuesday, 5:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Stanford -6.5, Total: 47

The Rose Bowl kicks off Tuesday when Big Ten champion Wisconsin faces Pac-12 title winner Stanford.

Wisconsin makes its third straight Rose Bowl appearance, but not with head coach Bret Bielema who surprisingly took the Arkansas job, leaving AD and former coach Barry Alvarez to guide the team. The Badgers are the first five-loss team to play in this bowl, but three of their defeats came in overtime, and they just crushed Nebraska 70-31 in the Big Ten title game. Stanford has been rolling since a controversial loss at Notre Dame, tallying seven straight wins (5-2 ATS). This matchup features two excellent runners in Badgers RB Montee Ball (133 rush YPG) and Cardinal RB Stepfan Taylor (111 rush YPG).

Who will win the Granddaddy of Them All? For the answer, download your FREE copy of the StatFox Edge College Bowl Guide for all the StatFox Experts picks for each of the 35 bowls, both Against The Spread and Over/Under.

Wisconsin has lost back-to-back heart breakers in Pasadena, falling 21-19 to TCU in 2011 and 45-38 to Oregon in 2012. However, Alvarez has won all three Rose Bowls he's coached in, and has an impressive 8-3 bowl record. As this could be the final coaching game for Alvarez, it will definitely mark the final collegiate game for Montee Ball, who is the all-time FBS rushing touchdown leader with 76, and his 82 total touchdowns are also an NCAA record. But he wouldn't have these gaudy numbers if he tried to run against a defense like Stanford has (87.7 rushing YPG, 3rd in nation). Wisconsin has yet to determine whether first-string QB Joel Stave will be recovered enough from his broken collarbone sustained on Oct. 27, or if senior Curt Phillips will start under center.

Stanford is playing in its third straight BCS bowl, crushing Virginia Tech 40-12 in the 2011 Orange Bowl and covering the spread in a wild 41-38 overtime loss to Oklahoma State in the 2012 Fiesta Bowl. The Cardinal enter this game red-hot, taking down four straight ranked opponents -- including No. 1 Oregon on the road -- as part of their seven wins in a row. No offensive player is more valuable than Stepfan Taylor who rushed for 1,442 yards this season. It won't be easy adding onto that pile of yards though, as Wisconsin ranks 22nd in the nation in run defense (124.5 YPG). His punishing style of running, and durable frame has allowed Stanford to tally a 32:57 time of possession this year. QB Kevin Hogan has been strong since taking over the starting role, throwing 8 TD and 3 INT while leading his team to 30.8 PPG and 394 total YPG.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
01/01/2013 12:25 AM

NIU looks for big upset over FSU in Tuesday's Orange Bowl


Orange Bowl - Miami, FL
Kickoff: Tuesday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Florida State -13, Total: 58

Heavy underdog No. 15 Northern Illinois carries a long winning streak down to Miami to take on No. 12 Florida State in Tuesday's Orange Bowl.

Northern Illinois enters this game with a 12-game win streak (8-4 ATS), whereas Florida State is 11-2 SU for the year, but just 4-9 ATS. The Huskies, who have crushed their past two bowl opponents by a combined score of 78 to 37, will face a 'Noles team with a four-game bowl win streak, but three straight losses in the Orange Bowl (2001, 2004 and 2006). NIU is led by dynamic dual-threat QB Jordan Lynch (43 total TD) whose 364 total YPG rank 3rd in the nation. FSU also has a strong signal caller in EJ Manuel (261 total YPG), but its defense is excellent, allowing 254 total YPG (2nd in FBS) and 15.1 PPG (7th in nation).

Will Florida State be able to win and cover the monster spread? For the answer, download your FREE copy of the StatFox Edge College Bowl Guide for all the StatFox Experts picks for each of the 35 bowls, both Against The Spread and Over/Under.

Northern Illinois is 21-1 in its past 22 games spanning two seasons, so it gives no apologies for becoming the first MAC school to earn a BCS bowl berth. And the Huskies can also take comfort that non-BCS schools are 5-2 all-time in these marquee bowl games. QB Jordan Lynch is a truly incredible player with 2,962 yards and 24 TD through the air and 1,771 yards (NCAA record for QB) and 19 TD on the ground. Lynch has rushed for at least 100 yards in 11 straight games, and is the biggest reason his team scores 38.2 PPG and gains nearly 500 total yards of offense (486 YPG). Senior WR Martel Moore remains Lynch's favorite target, catching 71 passes for 1,054 yards and 12 TD this year. Junior RB Akeem Daniels also makes this offense go, especially in the past two games where he's rushed for 240 yards and five scores. The defense isn't too shabby either, allowing just 19.0 PPG and 139 rushing YPG on 3.3 yards per carry this season.

Florida State still has a lot to prove, as it barely beat 15.5-point underdog Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship by six points, needing an interception in the game's final minute to secure the victory. The 'Noles are certainly capable of putting up points, averaging 39.9 PPG thanks to seven 40-point efforts this year. QB EJ Manuel has been consistently good all season, throwing for 3,101 yards and 22 TD, while adding another 284 yards on the ground. He also has three running backs with more than 550 rushing yards, led by James Wilder Jr.'s 583 yards and 11 touchdowns. Wilder was named MVP of the ACC Championship after rushing for 69 yards and 2 TD on just 10 carries. Florida State's defense has been fierce, but it will no longer be led by defensive coordinator Mike Stoops who took the head coaching job at Kentucky. FSU continues to be anchored by DE Bjoern Werner (13 sacks, 18 TFL).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
01/01/2013 12:29 AM

College Bowl Trends - Part II

December 30, 2012

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

PURDUE vs. OKLAHOMA STATE (Dallas Bowl)...Mike Gundy 4-3 SU, 3-3 vs. line in bowl games the past six years. Cowboys only 1-4 vs. line away from Stillwater this season after 11-2 spread mark on road the previous two seasons. Cowboys 0-2 as DD road chalk this campaign after 4-0 mark in role previous two years. Purdue 5-2 vs. line last seven away from Ross-Ade (including bowl win and cover last December). Slight to Purdue, based on recent trends.

NORTHWESTERN vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE (Gator Bowl)...NU a spectacular 11-1 vs. spread this season and covers in last six entering this bowl. Pat Fitzgerald 0-4 SU but 3-1 vs. line in bowls, as Wildcats hellbent to end bowl SU win drought that extends to 1949 Rose Bowl vs. Cal! MSU 1-6 vs. points last 7 away from Starkville, and failed to cover Music City Bowl LY vs. Wake Forest. Dan Mullen 1-1 SU and vs. line in bowls the past two years. Northwestern, based on recent trends.

MICHIGAN vs. SOUTH CAROLINA (Outback Bowl)...Michigan 0-4 vs. line as dog this season. Spurrier only 2-4 SU and vs. line in bowls at SC but Gamecocks are 11-4 vs. line last 15 since late 2011. Slight to South Carolina, based on team trends.

NEBRASKA vs. GEORGIA (Capital One Bowl)...Mark Richt had won and covered four straight bowls prior to the last two seasons when losing as favorite both times. Bo Pelini has also lost and failed to cover last two bowls after winning first two with Huskers. Georgia 8-4 vs. line away frm home since 2011. Nebraska 1-5 vs. points away from Lincoln this season, 1-7 last eight in role. Georgia, based on team trends.

WISCONSIN vs. STANFORD (Rose Bowl)...Third straight Rose Bowl for Badgers as Barry Alvarez makes one-game return on sidelines. Wiscy covered 6 of last 9 this season after having failed to cover previous six on board dating to late 2011. Bielema had covered three straight bowl games. Badgers were 3-0 as dog this season and are 6-1 in role since 2010. Stanford has covered bowls in each of the last three years, was 5-1 vs. line away from Palo Alto this season, now 18-3 against spread last 21 away from Farm. Stanford, based on team trends.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at FLORIDA STATE (Orange Bowl)...Jimbo is 2-0 SU and vs. line in bowls with FSU, and Noles have won last four bowls SU and are 7-0-1 vs. spread in last eight bowl games. But FSU was also 0-6 against number away from Tallahassee this season. NIU 9-3-1 vs. line TY and 25-15-1 vs. points since 2010. Huskies won and covered bowls (vs. Sun Belt and WAC foes) the past two seasons but had dropped previous three in postseason. NIU 6-2 as dog since 2010. NIU, based on FSU recent woes away from home.

Wednesday, Jan. 2
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

LOUISVILLE vs. FLORIDA (Sugar Bowl)... Charlie Strong 7-1 as dog since 2011 (1-0 this season) and 13-5 vs. line away from Papa John's since 2010 (although only 2-3 in role TY). Gators dropped 4 of last 5 vs. spread after blistering start this season, Muschamp only 12-13 against points since taking over at UF last season. Gators have won and covered four bowls in a row since 2008. Louisville, based on team trends.

Thursday, Jan. 3
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

KANSAS STATE vs. OREGON (Fiesta Bowl)...Bill Snyder no covers in bowls the past two years and Chip Kelly only 1-2 SU and vs. line in bowls since taking over at Oregon in 2009. Snyder 2-0 as dog this season and 12-4 in role since 2010, also 8-1 as road dog that span! Snyder 18-7 vs. spread since 2011. Ducks covered last four on road this season and are 9-1 vs.. spread away from Eugene since 2011. Slight to KSU, based on team trends.

Friday, Jan. 4
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

TEXAS A&M vs. OKLAHOMA (Cotton Bowl)...Teams renew their Big 12 rivalry that had become pretty exciting in recent years after Ags scored upset at Kyle Field in 2010. OU avenged loss with 41-25 win and cover a year ago. Ags covered 4 of last 5 this season and were 3-2 vs. spread last five away from Kyle Field, also 3-2 as road chalk in 20102 with Sumlin. Stoops has won and covered his last two bowls after l-6 vs. spread previous seven bowls. Sooners 4-2 vs. line away this season, and Stoops 1-2 as rare dog since 2007. Slight to A&M, based on extended indifferent OU/Stoops bowl form.

Saturday, Jan. 5
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

PITT vs. OLE MISS (BBVA Compass Bowl)...Hugh "Pointspread Cover" Freeze 9-3 vs. line this season with Rebs and 19-5 against spread since a year ago with Ark State & Ole Miss. Rebs have also covered their last four bowls dating to 2002. Pitt 1-6 vs. line last seven bowls, though those were all pre-Paul Chryst. Ole Miss, based on team and Hugh Freeze trends.

Sunday, Jan. 6
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

ARKANSAS STATE vs. KENT STATE ( Bowl)...Gus Malzahn coaches this game before he leaves for Auburn. Ark State won and covered last five; Red Wolves 17-7 vs. spread since a year ago and 10-3 vs. points away since 2011. Darrell Hazel also coaches this one for Kent State before leaving for Purdue. Golden Flashes 10-2-1 vs. number in 2012 and were 6-1-1 against points away from Dix Stadium, also 4-1-1 as dog. Arkanas State, based on team trends.

Monday, Jan. 7
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

ALABAMA vs. NOTRE DAME (BCS Championship)...Brian Kelly just 1-4 vs. line in previous bowl games with ND and Cincy (left CMU before '06 Motor City). Irish 2-0 as dog TY and 6-3 in role since 2010 for Kelly, also 5-1 vs. line away from South Bend this season. Bama covered only 1 of last 5 this season but was 4-2 vs. spread away from Tuscaloosa and Nick is 10-3 against points his last 13 away from Bryant-Denny Stadium. Tide only 6-7 vs. line this season but Saban is 4-1 SU and vs. line in bowls (including covers last three) with Bama. Slight to Bama, based on bowl trends.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
01/01/2013 12:33 AM

Rose Bowl Preview

December 31, 2012

The Rose Bowl is always one of the most anticipated bowl games of the year and there are some unique storylines setting the stage for an interesting match-up this year. Stanford and Wisconsin have similar styles of play and both teams have gone through different quarterbacks this season while still delivered successful results. Here is a look at Tuesday’s Rose Bowl and the history between these teams.

Matchup: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Stanford Cardinal
Venue: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California
Date: Tuesday, January 1, 2013
Time/TV: 5:00 PM ET – ESPN
Line: Stanford -6, Over/Under 47
Last Meeting: 2000, Wisconsin (-14) 17-9

This year’s Rose Bowl won’t have a big impact on the top of the national polls and with neither of these teams were ever in national title contention as this year’s game lacks some of its normal cachet. The Big Ten certainly had a down year in part due to probation for two of the better teams in the conference, which allowed Wisconsin to advance to the Big Ten championship despite being just 4-4 in conference play. Oregon was the national title contender for the Pac-12 but the Ducks could not even win their own division after being upset by this Stanford team.

Most expected Stanford to struggle last season with Jim Harbaugh leaving the program for the NFL but David Shaw guided the Cardinal to an 11-2 season with an overtime loss in the Fiesta Bowl. Most called for a decline again this season with #1 NFL draft pick Andrew Luck among others no longer on the team but the Cardinal have a chance to match last season’s record and Stanford returns to the Rose Bowl for the first time since after the 1999 season. In that game Stanford lost but covered as a heavy underdog against Wisconsin.

That was a Wisconsin Rose Bowl team led by Barry Alvarez and featuring Heisman Trophy winner Ron Dayne. Alvarez retired a few years later but he remained at the university eventually as the athletic director. With the surprising move of Bret Bielema taking the Arkansas job, Alvarez will be back on the sidelines, going for his fourth Rose Bowl victory as a head coach. It took the urging of his players to accept that challenge and as the A.D. it may have been in part a shrewd move to boost ticket sales and interest for Badgers fans as well. There was certainly limited interest for many to make a third straight trip to Pasadena, especially after an underwhelming 7-5 campaign. Many of the assistants for Wisconsin will run the show but most of the staff will be heading elsewhere after this game as former Utah State head Coach Gary Andersen has been hired to take over the program.

Quarterbacks will also be a focal point in this game. Wisconsin opened the season with Maryland transfer Danny O’Brien at the helm but his struggles prompted a move to redshirt freshman Joel Stave. Stave showed some promise but he was injured and senior Curt Phillips led the team in the final weeks. Phillips is expected to start but expect Stave to run the offense in a few series as he has more potential in the passing game. Phillips did his part in the Big Ten championship but he has only completed 36 passes all season.

Junior Josh Nunes opened the season as the starting quarterback for Stanford. He helped the team score a big early-season upset over USC but the Cardinal would lose two of the next three games. Sitting at 6-2 Stanford opted to switch to redshirt freshman Kevin Hogan and the Cardinal have not lost since, stunning Oregon to win the North Division and taking out UCLA in back-to-back weeks to win the Pac-12. Hogan has thrown nine touchdowns and just three interceptions but more importantly he adds a mobility dimension that has made Stanford a much more imposing offensive team.

Overall these teams have pretty similar numbers statistically and both teams focus their efforts on the ground. Wisconsin rushes over 45 times per game and Stanford runs nearly 40 times per game. Wisconsin has been the more productive team, gaining 6.0 yards per play but the numbers are skewed with a few big blowout wins weighing heavily. Defensively Wisconsin also has a slight edge in the statistics but the Pac-12 certainly rated as a tougher league and Stanford also had to play #1 Notre Dame.

Close games defined both of these teams as Wisconsin’s five losses came by a combined total of 19 points with three of those losses coming in overtime. Stanford meanwhile had seven wins by seven or fewer points including two overtime wins. In a match-up of teams with similar styles another tight Rose Bowl could be in order. Wisconsin has lost the last two years in the Rose Bowl under Bielema, losing by seven last season against Oregon and by two against TCU two years ago.

Line Movement: Stanford opened as a 6½-point favorite and in early December the line did jump up to -7. In recent days the numbers has fallen down to -6. The total was steady at 47½ for several weeks but has recently slipped to 47.

Last Meeting: On New Year’s Day 2000 Wisconsin beat Stanford 17-9 in the Rose Bowl in a defensive battle. It was Wisconsin’s second straight Rose Bowl, though they did not cover as a heavy favorite.

Series History: These teams have played three times in the last 30 years with a tie in early season non-conference play in 1995 and Wisconsin winning the two more recent meetings including the Rose Bowl after the 1999 season.

Wisconsin Historical Trends: Wisconsin has been a capable underdog, going 29-20-1 ATS since 1999. Barry Alvarez has a strong 8-3 bowl record in his career, though this is a unique situation. Wisconsin is 29-11-1 ATS since 1991 as an underdog of six or more points but they are just 2-5 in the last seven instances.

Stanford Historical Trends: The Cardinal has excelled in the favorite role with a 29-15 ATS mark since 2008 when laying points. Stanford is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 instances as a favorite away from home as the great recent numbers are not solely built on the great home field edge. David Shaw did lose in his only bowl game last season, a wild 41-38 loss to Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl last year.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
01/01/2013 12:36 AM

Early New Year's Tips

December 31, 2012

Gamblers have six bowl games to feast upon on New Year’s Day. Let’s get you started with a look at the four early contests.

**Purdue vs. Oklahoma State**

--The Heart of Dallas Bowl will pit the Big Ten versus the Big 12 at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas. The action on ESPNU starts at noon Eastern.

--Oklahoma St. (7-5 straight up, 6-5 against the spread) is the most heavily favored school in this year’s postseason. As of late Monday afternoon, most betting shops had the Cowboys installed as 17-point ‘chalk’ with the total in the 70-71 range. The Boilermakers are plus-600 on the money line (risk $100 to win $600).

--OSU head coach Mike Gundy turned down job offers from several schools to stay at his alma mater, but his flirtations clearly point to a rift in Gundy’s relationship with the school’s AD. Whatever the case, you would think the Cowboys are fired up that their head coach decided to stay put. On that note, OSU would seem to have the advantage in motivation but then again, is it excited to face a six-loss team?

--Purdue (6-6 SU, 6-6 ATS) saw its head coach Danny Hope fired at the end of the regular season. Hope went 22-27 during his four-year tenure. His permanent replacement will be Kent State’s Darrell Hazell, but Patrick Higgins is the Boilermakers’ interim head coach vs. Oklahoma St.

--OSU compiled a 4-2 spread record in six games as a double-digit favorite during the regular season. The Cowboys are seeking their third consecutive win in a bowl game. They won a 41-38 decision over Stanford in overtime of last year’s Fiesta Bowl.

--Purdue won its last three regular-season games to become bowl eligible. Hope’s team covered the spread in two of those contests, including the regular-season finale, a 56-35 home win over Indiana as a 5 ½-point ‘chalk.’ Robert Marve threw for 348 yards and four touchdowns. For the season, Marve has a 13/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

--Oklahoma St. lost back-to-back games to end the regular season, but we should note the Cowboys’ stellar 5-2 spread record down the stretch. They are ranked fourth in the nation in scoring offense, averaging 44.7 points per game despite going through three different starting QBs due to injuries.

--Purdue has hooked up its backers in a pair of double-digit underdog situations this year. The Boilers nearly pulled outright upsets in narrow losses at Notre Dame (17-14) and at Ohio St. (29-22 in overtime).

--The ‘over’ hit at a 7-4 overall clip for OSU, going 4-1 in its last five games.

--The ‘over’ also went 7-4 overall for Purdue during the regular season.

**Northwestern vs. Mississippi State**

--This showdown between the SEC and Big Ten will be contested in Jacksonville at the Gator Bowl. As of late Monday afternoon, most books were listing Northwestern (9-3 SU, 11-1 ATS) as a short favorite. Most Vegas shops had the Wildcats favored by one, while most offshore books had them as two-point favorites. Mississippi St. was favored for most of the month of December by 1.5 to 2.5. However, most spots made Northwestern the favorite on Dec. 28.

--Mississippi St. (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS) won its first seven games before losing four of its last five when it faced the meat of its schedule. The losses came at Alabama (38-7), vs. Texas A&M (38-13), at LSU (37-17) and at Ole Miss (41-24).

--Mississippi St. is led by junior QB Tyler Russell, who threw for 2,791 yards with a 22/6 TD-INT ratio. The Bulldogs go as he goes, evidenced by his 3/5 TD-INT ratio in their four losses.

--Russell’s favorite target is senior WR Chad Bumphis, who has 55 receptions for 904 yards and 12 TDs. LaDarius Perkins is the team’s leading rusher, producing 941 yards on the ground with eight TDs with a 5.1 yards-per-carry average.

--Pat Fitzgerald’s team covered the number in each of its six games as a favorite. Northwestern won outright in its last two games and took the cash in each of its last six. The Wildcats closed the regular season by trouncing Illinois 50-14 as 19-point home favorites. Kain Colter threw three TD passes without an interception and also rushed for 88 yards and one TD. Venric Mark rushed for 127 yards and one score.

--Northwestern utilizes a two-QB system that has proven to work effectively. Trevor Siemian is more of a pure passer and gets more of the snaps. Siemian has 1,192 passing yards with a 6/2 TD-INT ratio. Colter gets playing time at WR and is a two-way threat under center with his arm and scrambling ability. Colter has eight TD passes compared to only two interceptions. He has also rushed for 820 yards and 12 TDs with a 5.2 YPC average.

--Mark rushed for 1,310 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 6.2 YPC.

--Dan Mullen’s team went 0-3 both SU and ATS in three underdog spots.

--The ‘under’ went 6-1-1 in the Bulldogs’ first eight games, but the ‘over’ ended the regular season on a 3-0 run.

--The ‘under’ went 6-5 overall for Northwestern this year.

--During Fitzgerald’s seven-year tenure, Northwestern is winless in four bowl games but has covered the spread in two of those. Two losses came in overtime.

--ESPN2 will provide television coverage at noon Eastern.

**South Carolina vs. Michigan**

--Another SEC-Big Ten matchup will go down in Tampa at the Outback Bowl.

--Most books opened South Carolina (10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS) as a 3 ½-point favorite but the number was quickly adjusted to four. Since then, the number has been gradually increasing and got as high as six at one point. As of late Monday afternoon, the Gamecocks were favored by five or 5.5 at most books in Las Vegas. Some offshores were down to 4 ½. Gamblers can take the Wolverines to win outright for a plus-175 return (risk $100 to win $175).

--South Carolina won eight of its 10 games by double-digit margins, including a 27-17 win at Clemson without starting quarterback Connor Shaw in the regular-season finale. The only losses for Spurrier’s team came during a murderous three-week stretch. The Gamecocks started the brutal span by spanking Georgia 35-7 in a game that was over midway through the first quarter. Next, they lost a 23-21 heartbreaker at LSU. In the only poor performance all year, South Carolina got run out of The Swamp when turnovers got the best of it and created a lopsided final score.

--South Carolina has thrived in its last eight roles as a favorite, compiling a 6-2 spread record. The Gamecocks are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games as single-digit ‘chalk.’

--Michigan (8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS) lost four times during Brady Hoke’s second season at the helm. The Wolverines were drilled 41-14 in their season opener vs. Alabama on a neutral field in Arlington, TX. They also got blasted by a 23-9 count at Nebraska. The other defeats came at Notre Dame (13-6) and at Ohio St. (26-21).

--Michigan has been an underdog four times this year, going 0-4 both SU and ATS.

--South Carolina is going bowling for the seventh time during Steve Spurrier’s spectacular eight-year tenure. After losing three straight bowl games, the Gamecocks dealt out woodshed treatment to Nebraska in last year’s Capital One Bowl. They won 30-13 as 2 ½-point favorites to capture the first 11-win campaign in school history. Spurrier’s bunch will be looking for another 11-win season in this spot, so motivation shouldn’t be an issue.

--Totals were an overall wash (6-6) for Michigan, but it saw the ‘over’ cash at a 3-1 clip in its last four outings.

--The ‘over’ is 7-4 overall for the Gamecocks, going 4-1 in their last five games.

--Kickoff is slated for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**Georgia vs. Nebraska**

--Georgia and Nebraska will collide in Orlando at the Capital One Bowl. UGA nearly advanced to the BCS Championship Game before dropping a 32-28 heartbreaker to Alabama at the Ga. Dome in the SEC title game.

--Most spots opened Georgia (11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS) as a 10-point favorite with a total of 57. However, as of late Friday afternoon, the number had dipped down to nine and even 8 or 8.5 at some offshores. The total was all the way up into the 61-62 range. The Cornhuskers are plus-280 on the money line (risk $100 to win $180).

--Nebraska (10-3 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) saw its Rose Bowl hopes dashed in a humiliating 70-31 loss to Wisconsin as a three-point ‘chalk’ in the Big Ten Championship Game in Indianapolis. The Badgers raced out to a 49-10 lead less than one minute into the third quarter and coasted to victory. The Cornhuskers gave up an appalling 539 rushing yards, giving up an average of more than 10 yards per tote.

--Bo Pelini’s squad has been an underdog twice, going 1-1 both SU and ATS. Nebraska got spanked at Ohio St. and won a 28-24 decision over Michigan St. in East Lansing.

--Georgia has a balanced offensive attack that averages 37.2 PPG. Junior QB Aaron Murray has thrown for 3,458 yards with a 31/8 TD-INT ratio. Freshman RB Todd Gurley rushed for a team-high 1,260 yards and 16 TDs.

--UGA was been a single-digit favorite only once during the regular season, collecting a 41-20 win at Missouri as a one-point road ‘chalk.’

--Mark Richt’s team has lost back-to-back postseason games. The Dawgs lost 10-6 to Central Florida in the 2010 Liberty Bowl and dropped a 33-30 triple-overtime decision to Michigan St. in last year’s Outback Bowl.

--The ‘over’ is 7-4-1 overall for Nebraska, cashing at a 3-1-1 clip in its last four outings.

--Totals have been an overall wash (6-6) in UGA games, but the ‘under’ has cashed in six of its last seven contests.

--ABC will have the telecast at 1:00 p.m. Eastern.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
01/01/2013 12:39 AM

Double-digit BCS bowl favorites near-perfect against the spread

If you’re a big fan of the upcoming college football playoff system, you’re pointing to BCS bowl matchups like the Orange and Sugar Bowl as to why the Bowl Championship Series process was ultimately flawed in the first place.

What are supposed to be marquee matchups look like blowouts in the making, with the Northern Illinois Huskies set as 12.5-point underdogs versus the Florida State Seminoles in the Orange Bowl and the Louisville Cardinals tagged as 13-point pups facing the Florida Gators in the Sugar Bowl. Even the national title game has been bet up to a double-figure spread, with the Alabama Crimson Tide sitting -10 versus the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Jan. 7.

While those seem like monster spreads for BCS-quality games, they aren’t the highest lines ever for a BCS bowl. That pile of chalk goes to the 2011 Fiesta Bowl, in which the Oklahoma Sooners, 16-point favorites, thumped the UConn Huskies 48-20 on New Year’s Day.

In fact, since the inception of the Bowl Championship Series in 1998 and going back as far as 1985, there have only been six double-digit favorites in any of the five BCS bowls (Orange, Fiesta, Sugar, Rose, BCS Championship). In five of those games, the favorite covered the big spread.

Here’s a look at those five games and their outcomes:

2011 Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma 48, UConn 20 – Oklahoma -16
2010 Sugar Bowl: Florida 51, Cincinnati 24 – Florida -12
2009 Rose Bowl: USC 38, Penn State 24 – USC -10
2008 Rose Bowl: USC 49, Illinois 17 – USC -13
2007 Orange Bowl: Louisville 24, Wake Forest 13 – Louisville -10.5
2003 Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State 31, Miami 24 (OT) - Miami -12

Note: Five of those six BCS bowls with double-digit spreads played over the total.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
01/01/2013 12:44 AM

Tuesday, January 1


PURDUE (6 - 6) vs. OKLAHOMA ST (7 - 5) - 1/1/2013, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA ST is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA ST is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
OKLAHOMA ST is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


NORTHWESTERN (9 - 3) vs. MISSISSIPPI ST (8 - 4) - 1/1/2013, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NORTHWESTERN is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all games this season.
NORTHWESTERN is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
NORTHWESTERN is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


MICHIGAN (8 - 4) vs. S CAROLINA (10 - 2) - 1/1/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
S CAROLINA is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


NEBRASKA (10 - 3) vs. GEORGIA (11 - 2) - 1/1/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA is 55-35 ATS (+16.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
GEORGIA is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


WISCONSIN (8 - 5) vs. STANFORD (11 - 2) - 1/1/2013, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
STANFORD is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
STANFORD is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
STANFORD is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
STANFORD is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


N ILLINOIS (11 - 2) vs. FLORIDA ST (11 - 2) - 1/1/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points this season.
FLORIDA ST is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.


Tuesday, January 1

12:00 PM
Northwestern is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Northwestern's last 6 games
Mississippi State is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
Mississippi State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

12:00 PM
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Purdue's last 10 games
Purdue is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma State's last 5 games
Oklahoma State is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games

1:00 PM
Michigan is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Michigan is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games
South Carolina is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games

1:00 PM
Nebraska is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Nebraska is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Georgia is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games

5:00 PM
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Wisconsin's last 7 games
Wisconsin is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games
Stanford is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

8:30 PM
Northern Illinois is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Florida State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Florida State is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games



Game 247-248: Purdue vs. Oklahoma State (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 79.800; Oklahoma State 111.319
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 31 1/2; 67
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 16 1/2; 70
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (-16 1/2); Under

Game 249-250: Mississippi State vs. Northwestern (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 97.727; Northwestern 92.241
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 5 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 2 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (-2 1/2); Under

Game 251-252: South Carolina vs. Michigan (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Carolina 103.394; Michigan 99.964
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 3 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 5; 48
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+5); Over

Game 253-254: Nebraska vs. Georgia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 89.974; Georgia 111.264
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 21 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Georgia by 10; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-10); Under

Game 255-256: Wisconsin vs. Stanford (5:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 98.858; Stanford 113.796
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 15; 52
Vegas Line: Stanford by 6 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-6 1/2); Over

Game 257-258: Northern Illinois vs. Florida State (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 98.871; Florida State 99.432
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 1; 62
Vegas Line: Florida State by 13; 58 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (+13); Over


Heart of Dallas Bowl

Purdue – Won three straight games but is the biggest underdog of this bowl season.
Oklahoma State – Over went 5-1 in Cowboys games with a total of 70 or higher this season.

Gator Bowl

Mississippi State – Had the best turnover margin in the SEC.
Northwestern – Tied with Fresno State as the most profitable team in the nation for bettors at 11-1 ATS.

Outback Bowl

South Carolina – Under is 4-0 in South Carolina’s last four bowl games.
Michigan - Threw most INTs among bowl teams this season with 18.

Capital One Bowl

Nebraska - No. 2 pass efficiency defense in the nation.
Georgia - Linebacker Jarvis Jones led the nation in forced fumbles (7) and tackles for loss (22.5).

Rose Bowl

Stanford - Led the nation in tackles for loss with 120.0 and sacks with 56.
Wisconsin - Worst red-zone efficiency defense in the nation (allowed scores on 27 of 29 drives).

Orange Bowl

Northern Illinois – Underdogs for just the second time this season. Lost 18-17 to Iowa as a 7.5-pt dog Sept. 1
Florida State – Tied among bowl teams for the worst ATS record at 3-9.


Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Heart of Dallas Bowl
Purdue vs. Oklahoma State, 12:00 ET ESPNU
Purdue: 9-21 ATS after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored
Oklahoma State: 12-3 ATS after allowing 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games Gator Bowl
Northwestern vs. Mississippi State, 12:00 ET ESPN
Northwestern: 11-1 ATS in all lined games
Mississippi State: 1-9 ATS after being outgained by opp by 125 or more total yards last game

Outback Bowl
Michigan vs. South Carolina, 1:00 ET ESPN
Michigan: 5-14 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games
South Carolina: 8-1 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins

Capital One Bowl
Nebraska vs. Georgia, 1:00 ET ABC
Nebraska: 1-8 ATS in road games after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers
Georgia: 23-10 ATS in road games in non-conference games

Rose Bowl presented by Vizio
Wisconsin vs. Stanford, 5:00 ET ESPN
Wisconsin: 12-4 Over off 1 or more straight overs
Stanford: 17-6 ATS off a win against a conference rival

Discover Orange Bowl
Northern Illinois vs. Florida State, 8:30 ET ESPN
Northern Illinois: 19-9 ATS after the first month of the season
Florida State: 2-8 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: