cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
On 09/21/2011 07:02 PM in MLB

Cnotes Thursday's Best Bets MLB-WNBA !

Pujols, Cardinals Pursue Playoffs Vs NY Mets

St. Louis is 6-1 in Jake Westbrook’s last seven starts vs. the NL East.
The St. Louis Cardinals and New York Mets will close out a three-game National League series Thursday afternoon, with the first pitch scheduled to be thrown at 1:45 (ET) at Busch Stadium.

Manager Tony LaRussa is running out of time to guide his team to a spot in the playoffs, trailing the Atlanta Braves by 2 ½ games in the NL Wild Card race, while sitting 5 ½ back of the Milwaukee Brewers in the division.

St. Louis has won 11 of its last 13 games, including an 11-6 victory in the series opener, coming back from an early four-run deficit. First baseman Albert Pujols led the charge offensively, going 4-for-5 on the night and is now batting a season-best .304.

The perennial All-Star is aiming to extend his MLB record of batting .300 with 30 home runs and 100 RBI for an 11th consecutive season. He needs to maintain his current average while driving in three more runs.

Jake Westbrook (12-9, 4.58 ERA) is scheduled to make his 32nd start of the season, coming in off a 9-2 road loss to the Phillies in his last outing. He allowed two runs (one earned) and five hits over 3 1/3 innings in that particular effort.

The right-hander will be aiming to even up his home record, entering with a 4-5 record and 5.59 ERA in 15 tries, issuing 34 free passes and registering 54 strikeouts in 85 1/3 frames.

Westbrook will be making just his third career start versus the Mets, posting a 1-1 mark and 4.20 ERA, tallying a 6-2 road win in his last try on July 21 (8 IP, 2 ER). Bettors will find that the Cardinals are 6-1 in his last seven starts against NL East opponents, while the ‘over’ is 4-1 in his last five outings overall.

New York jumped out to a 4-0 lead after the top of the third inning in the series opener, but was outscored by an 11-2 margin the rest of the way. The Mets are 8-12 during the month thus far and 28-47 in September the last two-plus campaigns.

Chris Capuano (11-12, 4.47 ERA) will look to win a second consecutive start for the first time since June 29, coming in off a 12-2 road win over the Atlanta Braves, allowing two runs and six hits over five innings. The left-hander has compiled an even 7-7 mark and 5.29 ERA in 16 road appearances (14 starts), as opponents are hitting .286 against him.

He has yet to face the Cardinals this year, but comes in with a 5-5 record and 5.18 ERA, including an 0-3 mark and 6.87 ERA in four lifetime appearances (three starts) at Busch Stadium. Capuano will not be comfortable in facing Pujols, who is hitting .567 against him with four home runs and 11 RBIs in 30 career at bats.

Home plate umpire Jim Reynolds is likely going to draw some attention for total bettors, as the ‘over’ is 17-3-2 in his last 22 games involving St. Louis.

Weather forecasts suggest a 30 percent chance of showers with game-time temperatures in the mid-60s. A slight breeze of 5-10 mph will be blowing from the southwest (out to center).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
09/21/2011 07:04 PM

SF Giants, LA Dodgers MLB Betting Preview

Madison Bumgarner has won his last three starts against the Dodgers.
The Los Angeles Dodgers will face the San Francisco Giants for the last time this season on Thursday when they close out a three-game series at Chavez Ravine. The Giants saw their season-high eight-game winning streak come to an end on Tuesday night, and they are getting closer to being eliminated from playoff contention one year after winning the World Series.

The Dodgers had won four of the last five meetings with the Giants heading into Wednesday’s game, as ace Clayton Kershaw earned the victory in three of them. They tied the season series at 8-8 following Kershaw’s 20th victory of the year on Tuesday.

Los Angeles will send Hiroki Kuroda (12-16, 3.19 ERA) to the mound for the series finale off a home win against Pittsburgh last time out. He had lost consecutive starts for the first time since July 27 but allowed only one earned run against the Pirates on a solo homer by Alex Presley in the sixth inning.

Kuroda got the victory as a heavy 190 favorite, and the ‘over’ improved to 7-0-1 in his last eight outings. His team has scored seven runs or more in his last five wins and two or less in his past two losses.

San Francisco will counter with lefty Madison Bumgarner (12-12, 3.21), who has won each of his last five starts. Bumgarner has been outstanding during that stretch, giving up more than one earned run just once.

One of those wins came against Kuroda and the Dodgers on September 11, as Bumgarner surrendered one run and three hits in five innings with three walks and eight strikeouts. That was his shortest outing since July 30, and he has been favored in his last six starts with the ‘over’ cashing in the past three.

Bumgarner has enjoyed a lot of success against Los Angeles during his career with a 4-1 mark and 2.97 ERA in six games. He has won three in a row against the Dodgers this season since suffering his only career loss to them back on April 11.

Game time is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. (ET), and umpire Jim Wolf will be behind the plate. Wolf’s presence may help San Francisco since the road team is 19-12 this season when he calls balls and strikes.

The ‘over’ is also 17-10 when Wolf has served as the home plate umpire.

The temperature for first pitch in LA is forecast to be in the mid-70s, cooling down to a low of 63 degrees after the sun goes down.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
09/22/2011 12:41 AM

Thursday, September 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Seattle - 1:10 PM ET Seattle +100 500
Minnesota - Under 8.5 500

NY Mets - 1:45 PM ET NY Mets +158 500
St. Louis - Over 8.5 500

Texas - 3:35 PM ET Oakland +138 500
Oakland - Over 8.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
09/22/2011 12:44 AM

Thursday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers


Jeanmar Gomez, Cleveland Indians (4-2, 3.78 ERA)

Ever since Gomez made some adjustments to his delivery in the minors, he’s been throwing smoke following his return to the bigs. Extra life on his fastball has helped him win four straight starts while posting a 1.88 ERA over that stretch. He gave up just two runs over 6 2/3 innings in a 10-4 win over Minnesota last weekend.

Madison Baumgarner, San Francisco Giants (12-12, 3.21 ERA)

Bumgarner allowed a single unearned run over seven innings to earn his fifth straight win last weekend, a 9-1 decision over the Colorado Rockies. His ERA is just 1.04 over those five games and he now has his season WHIP at 1.22.

"This kid is just getting better and better," manager Bruce Bochy told reporters. "He's been on a good roll, really hitting his spots with all his pitches. He's got to feel good about how it's gone for him, especially with the rough start that he had."


Anthony Swarzak, Minnesota Twins (3-7, 4.52 ERA)

Swarzak’s recent numbers are downright nasty: 0-4 in his last five starts with an 8.49 ERA. His last outing was even worse, when he gave up seven runs over 1 2/3 innings in a loss to Cleveland.

"Lack of command, didn't execute," Swarzak told reporters after that loss. "Had a game plan out there and got away from my game plan a little bit. When you don't have a game plan and you're not executing, you're not going to get many outs. So I ended up getting beat around today."

Henry Sosa, Houston Astros (2-5, 4.74 ERA)

Sosa has lost three in a row, but was solid in two of those outings. While he gave up five runs in just 2 2/3 innings in a loss to the Nats on Sept. 11, he held his opposition to a pair of runs over six innings in his other two starts this month, including a tough 2-1 loss to the Cubs last weekend.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
09/22/2011 12:46 AM

Hot lines: Thursday's best MLB bets

Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees (-155, 9)

The New York Yankees are no strangers to tight playoff races down the stretch, so it wasn’t really any surprise that they did a little tinkering with their starting pitching rotation ahead of Wednesday’s doubleheader with the Tampa Bay Rays.

When Wednesday morning rolled around the Yankees informed everybody that Hector Noesi would start the matinee instead of CC Sabathia and that Sabathia would go later that evening.

Of course, with Tampa Bay and Boston battling it out for the wild card, it seemed a little fishy that the Yanks would make a late switch like that.

“It had an odor of that,” Rays manager Joe Maddon told reporters if he thought New York was playing some gamesmanship. “I don’t know if that’s exactly what was going on. I’m OK with gamesmanship. I’m into gamesmanship. It’s part of the dance, and I’m good with all that stuff.”

At any rate, the Yanks clinched a postseason berth with an afternoon win and then claimed the division later that evening. They send Bartolo Colon to the mound Thursday.

Gamesmanship or not, we like Jeff Niemann and the Rays here.

Pick: Rays

Colorado Rockies at Houston Astros (-120, 9)

There’s lots to dislike about the Houston Astros – their offense, their defense, the 33 units they’ve cost their supporters this year – but manager Brad Mills isn’t on that list.

He has kept his cool this season despite the team’s disgusting 53-102 record, though that doesn’t mean he’s going to let this young, rebuilding team lay down before the end of the year.

“We’ve seen us play some real good baseball in the last month, two months, it’s been a while,” Mills told reporters following Wednesday’s 2-0 loss to Cincinnati. “We’ve been playing real good ball. Today was one of the most disappointing and frustrating games for me to see us go through some things. We had some opportunities and couldn’t get them.”

They certainly did and they’ll have a great chance to make amends Thursday against a struggling Rockies team that sends Alex White to the hill. White has allowed at least four runs in each of his five starts with Colorado, serving up 12 dingers during that span.

Pick: Houston

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
09/22/2011 05:20 PM

Diamond Trends - Thursday

September 22, 2011


The Dodgers are 8-0 since April 15, 2010 as a favorite after a loss in which they had 12+ hits for a net profit of $800.
The Phillies are 6-0 since August 11, 2010 when Roy Oswalt starts at home when he is off a start in which he needed more than 4 pitches per batter for a net profit of $600.
The Athletics are 0-8 OU since June 05, 2010 when Trevor Cahill starts at home after walking at least 4 for a net profit of $800 when playing the under.


The Rangers are 0-11 since May 04, 2010 when they are off a win in which they had at least three times as many hits as runs and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1365 when playing against.


The Tigers are 9-0-1 OU since June 15, 2010 as a 140+ favorite when they lost the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $900 when playing the over.


The Angels are 0-12 since May 17, 2005 when Ervin Santana starts as a road favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1472 when playing against.


The Mariners are 1-19 since May 2009 as a dog when they are off a non-shutout win that was tied after the sixth inning.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
09/22/2011 05:23 PM

Rookie Moore tries to end Rays losing skid



First pitch: Thursday, 7:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Tampa Bay -125, New York +115, Total: 9.5

One night after clinching the A.L. East, the Yankees can deal a major blow to Tampa’s playoff hopes as they go for a four-game sweep of the Rays Thursday night at Yankee Stadium.

The Rays will have rookie Matt Moore making an emergency start in place of Jeff Niemann. It will be the first big-league start for the top prospect, and it’s coming in a high-pressure situation: At Yankee Stadium with Tampa’s playoff lives on the line. The Yankees are likely to take their foot off the gas a bit with nothing left to play for in the regular season, but the moment seems too big for the 22-year-old southpaw. Plus, Yankees starter Bartolo Colon is trying to pitch himself into the postseason rotation, so he’ll have plenty of motivation in this one. The FoxSheets have a three-star trend illustrating another reason why NEW YORK is the pick:

Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (N.Y. YANKEES) - after allowing 2 runs or less against opponent after 2 straight losses by 2 runs or less. (43-23 over the last 5 seasons, 65.2%, +29.3 units. Rating = 3*).

It’s been a rough two months for Colon (8-9, 3.81 ERA), one of 2011’s surprise success stories. He hasn’t won a decision since July 30, posting a 4.98 ERA during this eight-start winless skid. The Yankees still managed to go 4-4 in those outings though.

Colon was knocked around in Toronto last Saturday, allowing six runs over four innings. Tampa has beaten him twice this year, as Colon has allowed eight runs (six earned) and 21 base runners over 12 innings against the Rays.

Moore (0-0, 6.23 ERA) has an electric left arm, going 12-3 with a 1.92 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A this year. In nine starts with Triple-A Durham, he went 4-0 with a 1.37 ERA and 79 K in 52.2 innings (13.5 K/9). He’s made just two big-league appearances and was more impressive in the second, limiting the Red Sox to one run over three innings, allowing two hits, two walks and striking out two, during Tampa’s win on Saturday.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
09/22/2011 05:25 PM

Thursday’s betting tips: Jones spying on Rampage?

Who’s hot

NCAAF: The over is 3-0 in Cincinnati’s first three games of the season and is 7-3 in the club’s last 10 home games.

MLB: The Los Angeles Dodgers are 20-7 in their last 27 games.

MLB: Washington has won eight of its last 10.

WNBA: Atlanta has covered in 11 of its last 13 meetings with Indianapolis.

Who’s not

NCAAF: Cincinnati is 6-14 against the spread in its last 20 overall.

MLB: Toronto is 5-12 in its last 17 games as an underdog.

MLB: Tampa Bay is just 3-7 in its last 10 meetings with the Yankees.

WNBA: The over is 2-8 in Phoenix’s last 10 games overall.

Key stat

1 – The New York Yankees have failed to make the playoffs just once over the last 17 years following Thursday afternoon’s 4-2 win over the Tampa Bay Rays. With that win, the Yanks’ magic number to clinch the AL East was at two games heading into their nightcap with the Rays.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Hunter Pence, Philadelphia Phillies – Pence sat out Wednesday’s action after an MRI of his left knee showed a patella tendon strain. Word has it he won’t suit up again until the weekend. So far he’s hitting .323 with nine homers and 28 RBIs since coming over from the Astros.

Game of the day

North Carolina Wolfpack at Cincinnati Bearcats (-7.5, 60.5)

Notable quotable

"If you look at the production, usually guys get paid off their production. You look at their production and what level that's on and you look at the guys who produce similar and what they get paid and it's not that hard. Obviously, somebody doesn't believe I'm an elite running back." – Chicago Bears running back Matt Forte. The Bears are set as set as 3.5-point underdogs at home to Green Bay. Forte has 324 all-purpose yards through two games this season.

Notes and tips

Quinton “Rampage” Jackson is accusing his UFC 135 opponent Jon Jones of planting spies within his training team. “You know what I'm saying the kid is guilty,” Rampage said on Dan LeBatard Show Wednesday. “He knows he has spies in my camp. I think we have narrowed it down to who it is. We're just focusing on this upcoming fight and stuff like that. If he didn't put the spies there himself then his manager did and he knew about it. He feels guilty.” Jones is set as a -600 favorite in Saturday’s fight.

The WNBA Conference finals begin Thursday with Minnesota set as 7-point favorite at home to Phoenix, while Atlanta visits Indiana as a 2.5-point underdog. Phoenix’s offense fell from 89 points per game to 76.7 points per game in the playoffs. Meanwhile, Atlanta is really playing up the underdog card heading into the series. “The pressure's not really on us, the pressure's on them because everybody's expecting them to beat us,” Fever Tamika Catchings told reporters. “It's win or go home time. We really want to play for a championship and really feel like we have a championship caliber team.”

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo will be adding some extra protection for his damaged ribs for Monday night's game against the Washington Redskins. ESPN reported that Romo will be fitted with a special vest to help cushion his cracked ribs from any hard hits. Redskins cornerback DeAngelo Hall said Romo will need the extra padding because he plans on targeting the injured area at every opportunity. “I want to get a chance to put my helmet on whatever’s hurt,” Hall said. “If it’s Romo’s ribs? I’m going to be asking for some corner blitzes. ... That’s part of the game. If you know something’s wrong with an opponent, you want to target in on it.” Oddsmakers have yet to post a line for the game.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
09/22/2011 05:26 PM

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

Some trends to think about with Week 3 of the NFL approaching

-- Bengals are 0-7 in last seven games as non-divisional home favorite.

-- Saints covered nine of last 12 against AFC opposition.

-- Chargers are 14-5 in last 19 games laying 7+ points at home.

-- Bears covered five of last six as a home underdog.

-- Tampa Bay is 2-9-1 vs spread in last dozen home games.

-- Jaguars covered three of last 11 games against NFC teams.


Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Ranting on Moneyball and other stuff........

13) How much talent do these SEC football teams have? David Nelson caught winning TD pass for Buffalo Sunday; he wasn’t a full-time starter for the Florida Gators. Speaking of Florida and WRs, Tim Tebow made a cameo as a WR in Sunday’s game for Denver.

12) San Diego State visits Michigan this week, rare game where one coach was the other team’s coach the year before. Brady Hoke parlayed his quick success with the Aztecs into the big money job in Ann Arbor, but his old team won’t be a pushover here. Hoke made some comments about how he would have walked from San Diego to Ann Arbor. Young RB Hillman is an NFL player and the senior QB Lindley is pretty good, too.

11) Apparently the Pac-12 is staying with 12 teams, which supposedly makes Texas A&M’s move to the SEC easier for the Big IX to swallow. If the Big IX were to add Louisville-West Virginia-BYU, they’d be back to the Big XII and become a stronger basketball league, and not that much worse in football.

10) Why would a kid from New Jersey go to UCLA to play basketball? I don’t understand it; there is good weather and hot women a lot closer than LA, and you can get to the NBA from anywhere. Good for Ben Howland though. Hope the kid stays for more than one year.

9) Baltimore’s Brian Matusz is 1-8, 10.68 in 44.2 IP this season; as it stands, he would have the worst ERA of any pitcher since 1900 who pitched 40+ innings that season. Surprising whose record he would break; in 2000, Roy Halladay was 4-7, 10.64 in 67.2 IP.

8) If the Giants are serious about re-signing Carlos Beltran, they need to play him in leftfield, where his creaky knees won’t do as much damage defensively- he just doesn’t have the range he used to. Nate Schierholtz is really good in spacious RF for the Giants.

7) Elias Sports points out that when the Red Sox scored 18 runs twice in a week, they were the first team since the ’96 Reds to do so. Their problem is they scored 18 runs in a Lackey start and he still couldn’t get the win. Their starting pitching looks to be shot. Eric Bedard threw 51 pitches in the third inning Tuesday and he didn’t finish the inning.

6) You look at the top five relievers in appearances this season, and three of them are Braves. Craig Kimbrel pitched 10 games in 19 days; they better be careful they don’t blow these kids’ arms out. Wouldn’t be the first time.

5) Twins are the first team since the ’07 White Sox to win 90+ games one year, then lose 90+ the next.

4) Looks like the Mets are going to move the fences in at Citi Field next year; would be cruel if they did that, then traded away David Wright. You move the fences in, you keep Wright.

3) Before I rant a little about Moneyball, kudos to the A’s for signing interim skipper Bob Melvin to a 3-year deal. Melvin brought structure and order to a team that was imploding under the previous manager, Bob Geren, who was overmatched in the job. Am excited to see how the team will look in 2012 after a full spring training with Melvin.

2) I’ve been an A’s fan since I was 5 years old, a very long time ago (think Jose Santiago/Lew Krausse as pitchers, Jose Tartabull (Danny’s father) as an OF). The Moneyball era when Hudson-Mulder-Zito propelled the small market A’s to contention was fun as hell, but they didn’t win a World Series, which is why I cringed when they let Michael Lewis write his book, which is a very good book (I was lucky enough to meet Lewis in August 2003; good guy).

To me, if you took someone who knew nothing about baseball to this movie, the logical question after the movie is going to be, “How has this team done since that year when they won 20 straight games?” And the answer is, “Well, they made the playoffs in 2006, but have pretty much sucked the last five years.” Terrific. Outstanding. Lets make a movie!!!

1) Anyway, I hate it when people pat themselves on the back, and to me, Moneyball was Billy Beane patting himself on the back. All it does it put a target on you to make others want to beat you more, which is why I don’t want to go see the movie. That said, I’ll definitely see it at some point because, dammit, I’m as A’s fan, and always will be. If only they could get a new stadium. And some hitters.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
09/22/2011 05:28 PM


Atlanta at Indiana
The Dream look to open up the series and build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 road games. Atlanta is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3). Here are all of today's picks


Game 601-602: Atlanta at Indiana (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 113.738; Indiana 113.734
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 152
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 3; 158 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3); Under

Game 603-604: Phoenix at Minnesota (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 110.677; Minnesota 119.053
Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 8 1/2; 177
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota by 6 1/2; 173 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-6 1/2); Over

Long Sheet

Thursday, September 22


ATLANTA (22 - 14) at INDIANA (23 - 14) - 9/22/2011, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 33-20 ATS (+11.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) in home games this season.
INDIANA is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games on Thursday over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games in August or September games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 52-76 ATS (-31.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15+ games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 10-2 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 7-5 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
10 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


PHOENIX (21 - 16) at MINNESOTA (29 - 8) - 9/22/2011, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 7-6 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
PHOENIX is 7-6 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
9 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: