cnotes Posts:33377 Followers:38
11/29/2012 11:33 AM

Falcons Flying High Heading Into Thursday Night Football

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

NFL Betting Preview
Date: 11/29/2012 at 8:25 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: -3½, O/U 55½
Television: NFL Network

New Orleans Saints: The Saints (5-6 straight-up, 6-5 against the spread) saw their three-game winning streak end with a tough 31-21 home loss to San Francisco last week, and they will try to keep their slim playoff hopes alive by completing a sweep of the Falcons. New Orleans edged Atlanta 31-27 in Week 10 behind 298 passing yards and three touchdowns from quarterback Drew Brees and a resurgent rushing attack. Running backs Chris Ivory and Mark Ingram combined to total 139 yards on the ground against the Falcons, who will also have to deal with the return of Darren Sproles. Although he did not total any rushing yards against the 49ers in his first game back since suffering a broken hand, Sproles led the team with seven catches for 65 yards and did not play in the first meeting. The Saints are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games, and their last two road games have gone “under” the total.

Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons (10-1 SU and 6-4-1 ATS) just keep on winning despite their struggles to cover the spread. They are coming off a 24-23 victory at Tampa Bay last week to push on the final number as 1-point road favorites, dropping their ATS mark to 0-2-1 in the past three. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan continued his strong play through the air, throwing for 353 yards and one touchdown on 26-of-32 attempts. Ryan ranks second in the NFL in passing yardage with 3,425 yards and welcomed back a healthy Julio Jones, who had six catches for a game-high 147 yards with one TD against the Bucs. Jones had played through an ankle injury the week before against Arizona when he was limited to three catches for 33 yards, and he had four catches for 75 yards in the last meeting with New Orleans. The Falcons have seen the total go “under” in three of their last four games along with five of their past seven.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33377 Followers:38
11/29/2012 11:36 AM

Saints at Falcons

November 28, 2012

The Atlanta Falcons have enjoyed unprecedented success since owner Arthur Blank made a pair of surprising hires, plucking New England’s Director of College Scouting Thomas Dimitroff to be a General Manager for the first time and choosing Jacksonville defensive coordinator Mike Smith for his first head-coaching gig.

Before 2008, the Falcons had never enjoyed back-to-back winning seasons. On Smith’s watch, they have posted four consecutive winning seasons and are in the midst of a fifth straight. Smith has compiled a 53-22 straight-up record during the regular season.

However, a 0-3 record in the playoffs has stained an otherwise stellar run. Also, Atlanta has struggled to deal with its arch rival, New Orleans, which has won four in a row and seven of the last eight head-to-head meetings.

When these bitter NFC South rivals collide Thursday night at the Ga. Dome, Atlanta (10-1 straight up, 6-4-1 against the spread) will be looking to avenge its lone loss of the season, a 31-27 defeat to the Saints at the Superdome on Nov. 11. The Falcons were stymied on the goal line at crunch time in the loss as one-point road favorites.

This time around, most betting shops have installed Atlanta as a 3 ½-point favorite with a total of 56. Gamblers can take New Orleans (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS) on the money line for a plus-165 payout (risk $100 to win $165).

Atlanta survived a division road test last week, capturing a 24-23 win at Tampa Bay as a one-point road ‘chalk.’ Michael Turner scored the game-winning touchdown on a three-yard scamper on a quick pitch to the left with 7:55 remaining.

Matt Ryan shook off a five-interception debacle the previous week to complete 26-of-32 throws for 353 yards with one TD and one interception. The Boston College product hit Julio Jones with an 80-yard scoring strike in the third quarter. Jones finished with six receptions for 147 yards.

For the season, Ryan has connected on 68.5 percent of his passes for 3,425 yards with a 21/13 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Jones has made 53 catches for 853 yards and six TDs, while Roddy White has 67 receptions for 1,003 yards and four TDs. Tony Gonzalez has 69 catches for 712 yards and six TDs.

Despite those gaudy numbers, Atlanta needs to start running the ball more effectively if it wants to be successful in January. Turner has averaged only 3.5 yards per carry to date.

New Orleans lost its first four games, only to respond with five wins in its next six games going into last week’s home contests versus San Francisco. The 49ers cooled off the Saints by intercepting Drew Brees twice and returning those picks for touchdowns. They captured a 31-21 victory as one-point road ‘chalk.’

Brees threw for 267 yards and three TDs, but the pick-six’s proved costly. The Purdue product has thrown for 3,333 yards with a 33/11 TD-INT ratio.

The Saints’ woes have been tied to their leaky defense, a unit ranked 28th in the NFL in scoring defense. They give up 27.6 points per game. They are last in rush defense, surrendering 156.5 yards per game on the ground.

New Orleans WR Marques Colston and TE Jimmy Graham have both caught a team-high 55 receptions. Also, both have eight TD grabs apiece.

Atlanta is unbeaten in five home games this season, but it just 2-3 ATS at the Ga. Dome. During Smith’s five-year tenure, the Falcons have compiled a 19-10-1 ATS mark as home favorites.

New Orleans is 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS in five road assignments this year.

The ‘under’ is 7-4 overall for the Falcons, 4-1 in their home games. Meanwhile, the Saints have seen the ‘over’ go 7-4 overall, 3-2 in their five road assignments. The ‘over’ is 7-3 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these clubs.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. Eastern on The NFL Network.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Former Falcon Curtis Lofton, who signed with the Saints in the offseason, says New Orleans doesn’t even really look at Atlanta as a big rival.

--Philadelphia has the NFL’s worst spread record, limping to an atrocious 1-9-1 spread record.

--Tampa Bay owns the NFL’s best spread ledger with an 8-2-1 ATS mark.

--The ‘over’ has hit in nine consecutive New England games. The Patriots have a total of 51 in Sunday’s game at Miami.

--There are six home underdogs on the Week 13 card: Rams (+7 vs. 49ers), Dolphins (+7.5 vs. New England), Chiefs (+3 vs. Panthers), Chargers (+2 vs. Bengals), Titans (+6 vs. Titans) and Redskins (+2.5 vs. Giants on Monday Night Football).

--The ‘under’ is an NFL-best 8-3 for both the Cardinals and Giants.

--The ‘over’ has cashed in seven straight head-to-head meetings between Seattle and Chicago. The Bears-Seahawks’ total for Sunday is 37 ½ at Solider Field.

--After missing back-to-back games, Percy Harvin was upgraded to ‘probable’ on Wednesday for Sunday’s showdown at Green Bay. The Vikings are nine-point underdogs.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33377 Followers:38
11/29/2012 11:42 AM

NFL Week 13 Preview: Saints at Falcons



Kickoff: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Atlanta -3, Total: 55.5

The Falcons try to avenge their lone defeat of the 2012 season when they host the Saints on Thursday night.

Atlanta hasn't been particularly sharp at home with a 2-3 ATS mark at Georgia Dome and failing to win any home game by more than six points. These teams played a very even contest in New Orleans in Week 10, a 31- 27 Saints win, with the Falcons outgaining New Orleans 454-440 and each team turning it over once. Atlanta had a chance to win it late, but couldn’t score in a goal-to-go situation. It was the Saints’ fourth straight victory, SU and ATS, over the Falcons. They’ve won by a field goal in their past two trips to Atlanta.

Who will prevail in this key NFC South showdown? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Brees has been outstanding versus the Falcons, throwing for 303 yards per game, 29 TD and 12 INT in 11 meetings since joining the Saints. He threw for 298 yards (9.3 YPA), 3 TD and 1 INT when these teams squared off in Week 10. Although the Falcons are an above-average pass defense (222 YPG, 13th in NFL), they have major injury concerns in the secondary with both CBs Asante Samuel (shoulder) and Dunta Robinson (head) questionable. Atlanta has allowed 275+ passing yards in three of its past four games, and Brees has thrown at least 2 TD in nine straight contests. One player Brees will surely lock eyes with is TE Jimmy Graham who has a touchdown in each of his five meetings with Atlanta, including a season-high 146 yards and 2 TD on Nov. 11. The Saints failed to reach 90 rushing yards in six of their first seven games, but began November with games of 140, 148 and 153 rushing yards before limited to 59 yards (on 21 carries) by San Francisco last week. Pierre Thomas leads the team with 341 rushing yards, but has just 11 carries over the past three weeks, including one against the Niners. Mark Ingram leads the team in rushing attempts, including 38 carries in this same three-game span, rushing for 67 yards on 16 attempts (4.2 YPC) in the win over Atlanta. The Falcons rushing defense has been poor (123 YPG, 22nd in NFL), but they have held three of the past five opponents to less than 100 rushing yards limiting Tampa Bay star rookie Doug Martin to just 50 yards on 21 carries last week. The Saints have fared so well on the road thanks to great ball protection, committing just two turnovers in the past four away tilts.

Ryan is just 2-6 in his career versus New Orleans, but he has thrown all over the Saints since the start of 2011, racking up 378 passing YPG, 6 TD and just 2 INT in these past three meetings. These are actually three of his top-five yardage games in his career (76 games), including his eye-popping, 411-yard career high three weeks ago. Ryan will most likely look for top WR Roddy White, who has 981 receiving yards and 6 TD in 11 career meetings with New Orleans. But he also has WR Julio Jones coming off a career-best 147 receiving yards last week in Tampa Bay, and TE Tony Gonzalez who exploded on the Saints for 11 catches, 125 yards and 2 TD three weeks ago. New Orleans has surrendered the third-most passing yards in the NFL (298 YPG), so expect the Falcons to attack mostly through the air. But even though top RB Michael Turner has been struggling (1.9 YPC in past three games), he could certainly find holes in the Saints NFL-worst rushing defense surrendering 157 YPG. Although Atlanta committed six turnovers in its most recent home game two weeks ago, the team has just 10 giveaways in its other 10 games combined. But the Falcons defense has forced just two turnovers in the past five contests, so this outcome should not be determined by miscues.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33377 Followers:38
11/29/2012 11:48 AM


Long Sheet

Week 13

Thursday, November 29


NEW ORLEANS (5 - 6) at ATLANTA (10 - 1) - 11/29/2012, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in home games off a win against a division rival since 1992.
ATLANTA is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


Short Sheet

Week 13

Thursday, November 29, 2012

(TC) New Orleans at Atlanta, 8:25 ET NFL
New Orleans: 11-1 ATS in the second half of the season
Atlanta: 9-23 ATS at home off BB wins



Week 13

Trend Report

Thursday, November 29

8:20 PM
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 12 of New Orleans's last 16 games
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games



Week 13

New Orleans at Atlanta
The Falcons look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 Thursday games. Atlanta is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Falcons favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.


Game 301-302: New Orleans at Atlanta (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 133.547; Atlanta 138.869
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 5 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3 1/2; 56
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-3 1/2); Under


Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

Saints (5-6) @ Falcons (10-1)—New Orleans (+2) beat Falcons 31-27 at home three weeks ago, Atlanta’s only loss this year, outrushing them 148-46 for 11th win in last 13 series games; Saints won last three visits here, all by exactly three points. Five of last six series games were decided by 4 or less points. Falcons’ last three games were also all decided by 4 or less points; they’re 5-0 at home, with all five wins by 6 or less points (2-3 as HF). Atlanta is 6-4-1 vs spread in last 11 games as a divisional home favorite. Saints are 5-1 when they score 28+ points, 0-5 when they don’t; they’re 2-2 as underdog this year, 1-1 on road. Atlanta allowed 28+ points in only two games, but one of them was against Saints. Last three NO games went over the total; five of last seven Falcon games stayed under. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this season.



Thursday, November 29

Thursday Night Football: Saints at Falcons

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, 56)

The Atlanta Falcons look to avenge their only loss of the season Thursday when they kick off Week 13 with a rematch with the NFC South-rival New Orleans Saints at the Georgia Dome.

Atlanta opened the season with eight straight victories before running into a hot New Orleans team that posted a 31-27 triumph at home on Nov. 11. Tight end Jimmy Graham caught seven passes for a career-high 146 yards and two touchdowns and Jabari Greer broke up a pass in the end zone on fourth-and-goal late in the fourth quarter to preserve the Saints' fourth win in five games.

Atlanta has squeaked out a pair of wins since the loss to New Orleans, posting a four-point triumph over Arizona before edging the Buccaneers 24-23 in Tampa Bay on Sunday. Seven of the Falcons' 10 victories have been by seven points or less. After opening the campaign with four consecutive setbacks, the Saints got back in playoff contention by winning five of their next six contests. But their postseason hopes took a hit Sunday as they fell to NFC West-leading San Francisco at home, 31-21.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: The Falcons opened as 3.5-point favorites and have dropped to -3 at some markets. The 56 points total ties the highest total of the season and has dropped to 55.5 at some books.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (5-6, 6-5 ATS): New Orleans would have vaulted into sixth place - and a wild card spot - in the NFC with a win over San Francisco. Instead, it sits in 11th and faces two more division leaders over the next two weeks. Quarterback Drew Brees extended his NFL-record streak of consecutive games with a touchdown pass to 54 with three scoring tosses but also had two passes intercepted and returned for TDs. He now has 31 touchdown strikes this year, making him just the third QB in league history to reach the 30-TD plateau in five or more seasons. Brees joins Brett Favre (nine) and Peyton Manning (six) in that category. Brees (2008-12) and Favre (1994-98) are the only two to do it in five consecutive campaigns. Wide receiver Marques Colston notched a franchise-record 56th touchdown of his career Sunday. He had been tied with Deuce McAllister atop the franchise list.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (10-1, 6-4-1 ATS): Sunday's margin of victory could have been larger had Matt Bryant not struggled. The kicker missed a 22-yard field-goal attempt as time expired in the first half and failed to convert a 48-yarder with eight seconds remaining in the fourth quarter. It was the second time in four games Bryant has missed a pair of attempts. Wide receiver Julio Jones showed no signs of injury against Tampa Bay, catching six passes for 147 yards - including an 80-yard touchdown reception in the third quarter. Jones had been limited in practice last week due to a sore right ankle. Quarterback Matt Ryan has now led five game-winning drives in the fourth quarter this season and 21 during his five-year career. Running back Michael Turner capped the latest one Sunday, scoring on a 3-yard run with 7:55 remaining.


* Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.


1. The Saints have won four straight and 11 of the last 13 meetings between the division rivals.

2. Graham and Atlanta's Tony Gonzalez became the first pair of tight ends to have at least 120 yards receiving and two TDs in the same game.

3. Gonzalez caught a pair of scoring passes in the first meeting, the first making him the first tight end in NFL history with 100 touchdown receptions.



Thursday, November 29

Tale of the tape: New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

Time is running out on the Saints, as they travel to Atlanta to face the rival Falcons Thursday night. Find out how this matchup breaks down in all three facets of the game with our tale of the tape.


New Orleans was held under 28 points for the first time in four games against San Francisco last Sunday. Drew Brees threw for only 267 yards in the loss, but did find the end zone three times to go along with two interceptions. Brees has thrown 11 picks already this season after tossing only 14 all of last year. Perhaps he's trying to do too much, with the Saints ground game stuck in neutral. They ran for just 59 yards on 21 attempts last Sunday, and are averaging 91.5 rush yards per game on the season.

Atlanta has been the picture of consistency on offense this season, scoring at least 23 points in all but one of its 11 games. Matt Ryan has thrown for over 300 yards in four consecutive games, while Jacquizz Rodgers appears to be slowly overtaking Michael Turner as the team's feature running back. With Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez enjoying tremendous success, the Falcons’ ground game has become a bit of an afterthought this season.

Edge: Atlanta


Not surprisingly, we've seen the Saints defense take a step back in the post-Gregg Williams era. They did appear to be gaining some traction, having held their last three opponents to a combined 57 points before giving up 31 against the 49ers. Their defense - or lack thereof - is a big reason why the Saints have been outgained in terms of total yardage in each of their last seven contests. Note that New Orleans has held its own defensively in this series, giving up 24 points or less in regulation time in five of its last six meetings with Atlanta.

The Falcons haven't been healthy on the defensive side of the football for much of the season, but have still put up some solid numbers. They've been gashed by the run at times, allowing 4.8 yards per rush on the year, but have made up for it with a secondary that allows just seven yards per pass play. Asante Samuel, Dunta Robinson, and Peria Jerry have all missed practice time this week, but at least two of the three are expected to play Thursday night.

Edge: Atlanta

Special teams

The Saints have been atrocious on punt returns this season, averaging a paltry 5.8 yards per return. It's unlikely we'll see them break through in that department against a Falcons special teams unit that allows only 7.6 ypr. The good news is, the Saints’ kick return game has been much better, gaining a whopping 27.9 ypr. Specialist Courtney Roby has been a big contributor. Kicker Garrett Hartley hasn't been busy, converting on only nine of 12 field goal attempts.

Like the Saints, the Falcons have struggled returning punts, but have performed above the league average on kickoffs. They'll go against a New Orleans special teams unit that allows close to nine yards per punt return, and 22 yards on kickoffs. Few kickers have been as reliable as Matt Bryant this season. He's had a heavy workload, and has made the most of it, converting 26-of-31 field goal attempts.

Edge: Atlanta

Word on the street

"It makes it more juicy. It makes the rivalry better. And I like competing against these guys. We always know we're gonna get a good game." -- Saints safety Roman Harper referring to the trash talk leading up to this week's game.

"Ten and one is great, but I'll tell you what I've said since the beginning of the season: We're just jockeying for position. We just want to put ourselves in the best position, playing the best football." -- Falcons tight end Tony Gonzalez speaking about his team's NFC-best record.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33377 Followers:38
11/29/2012 06:23 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

11/26/12 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
11/25/12 11-­9-­2 55.00% +­550 Detail
11/22/12 2-­3-­1 40.00% -­650 Detail
11/19/12 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
11/18/12 11-­11-­2 50.00% -­550 Detail
11/15/12 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
11/12/12 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
11/11/12 14-­10-­0 58.33% +­1500 Detail
11/08/12 1-­1-­0 50.00% -­50 Detail
11/05/12 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
11/04/12 10-­14-­0 41.67% -­2700 Detail
11/01/12 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail

Totals 61-­48-­5 55.96% +4100


Thursday, November 29

Game Score Status Pick Amount

New Orleans - 8:20 PM ET New Orleans +3.5 500

Atlanta - Under 56 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: