cnotes Posts:33041 Followers:38
11/08/2012 07:18 PM

Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 10

Colts (5-3) @ Jaguars (1-7)—Indy playing inspired football for disabled coach Pagano (leukemia) who visited team Sunday, winning four of last five games, last three all by 4 or less points, or in OT; they’ve lost last two visits here, 31-28/19-13- last year was first time Jags ever swept season series. Series was split in five of last six years. Indy allowed 41-22-35 points in its losses; they’re 4-0 allowing less than 22 points, a figure Jax has yet to hit at home this year. Jags’ only win this year came on 80-yard pass in last 2:00 at Indy, after Colts had just grabbed lead; they only had 148 passing yards the whole game. Jax lost five games in row (2-3 vs spread) since- they’re 0-4 at home (0-4 vs spread) losing by average score of 32-6. Home underdogs are 6-9 vs spread in divisional games so far this season. Three of last four Jaguar games went over total; under is 4-2-1 in Colts’ last seven games.

Bills (3-5) @ Patriots (5-3)—If you go back a decade, average score of second Bill-Patriot game each year has been 32-8 Pats; average score in first meetings, 28-20. Patriots trailed first meeting 14-7 at half in Buffalo, then exploded in second half for 52-28 win, their 22nd in last 24 series games; Bills lost last eight visits here, with five of last seven by 10 or less points. Buffalo lost four of its last five games; only one of its five losses was by less than 12 points- they’re 1-4 as underdogs this year, 1-3 on road. NE won four of last five games, forcing 15 turnovers (+9) in those games, after forcing only five in first three; they’re 1-2 as home favorites. In its last four wins, Patriots ran ball for 131+ yards; Bills allowed an average of 211 rushing yards in their last five games. Home favorites are 7-14 vs spread in divisional games this season. Last six Patriot games all went over the total.

Giants (6-3) @ Bengals (3-5)—Cincy lost to Peyton Manning last week; younger brother Eli visits here, in series where home team is 8-0, with Giants losing all five visits to Cincinnati (four of five losses by 5 or less points). Bengals lost last four games (0-4 vs spread), with three of the four at home, allowing 34-24-31 points in last three games; they’re 2-3 as underdogs, 0-2 at home. Last three Giant games were all decided by 5 or less points; they’re 2-2 on road (4-0 vs spread), 2-4 vs spread as favorites, 1-0 on road. Underdogs covered seven of their nine games this year. Red flag for NJ: they’ve completed only 25 of 53 passes in last two games, scoring two TDs on 21 drives- they had defensive TD in each game. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 3-11 against spread, 1-4 on road; AFC North underdogs are 5-6, 2-2 at home. Three of four Giant road games stayed under the total.

Chargers (4-4) @ Bucs (4-4)— Being 4-4 depends on your outlook; Tampa fans are thrilled to be .500 after losing last 10 games LY; some Charger fans are calling for Norv Turner’s head because he’s 4-4. Bucs’ WR Vincent Jackson left SD for Tampa and has invigorated Tampa passing game that averaged 6.9+ yards/attempt in each of last five games, during which time they averaged 33.2 ppg (20 TD’s on 59 drives, 31 plays of 20+ yards). Bolts had three extra days after Thursday night win that snapped three-game; they’re 2-2 on road, but lost at Saints/Browns in last two- they’re 0-1 as dogs this year. San Diego won eight of nine series games, including all five played here, but Bucs won their only Super Bowl on Chargers’ home field. NFC South home favorites are 5-6 vs spread outside their division; AFC West road underdogs are 2-5. Four of last five Charger games, and last five Tampa Bay games all went over the total.

Broncos (5-3) @ Panthers (2-6)—John Fox returns to Charlotte to coach against team that (stupidly) let him walk two years ago, because they didn’t want to pay him what he’s worth; Denver is on roll, winning/covering last three games, scoring 35-34-31 points. Broncos scored 31+ points in all five wins, 21-25-21 in losses. Carolina lost five of last six games, but held three of last four opponents under 20 points; they’re 0-4 vs spread when scoring 14 or less points, 4-0 when they score 21+. Panthers lost last three home games, scoring average of just 11 ppg (3 TD’s on 30 drives). Home side won all three games in series; Broncos lost only visit here, 30-10 four years ago. AFC west non-divisional favorites are 4-5 vs spread, 1-2 on road; NFC South teams are 16-8 vs spread outside their division, 9-2 as underdogs, 0-1 at home. Three of last four Bronco games went over; three of last four Panther games stayed under.

Titans (3-6) @ Dolphins (4-4)—You’ll get spirited effort from Tennessee here after 51-20 home debacle vs Bears last week, after which octogenarian owner Bud Adams basically threatened everyone in organization; five of Titans’ six losses are by 23 points- they’re 1-3 on road, pulling out 35-34 win at Buffalo in last road trip, but losing first three by 28-24-23 points (1-3 as road dog). Five of well-coached Dolphins’ last six games were decided by 4 or less points; Fish are 0-2 as favorites this year (both games were decided by 3 points) as underdogs covered six of their eight games, including last five. After running ball for 263-185 yards in Weeks 2-3, Dolphins averaged just 70.8 yards on ground over last five games. Miami won eight of last 11, three of last four series games; Titans lost six of last seven visits here, dropping last three by 14-3-12 points. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 6-5, 3-3 at home; AFC South underdogs are 9-8, 4-4 on road. Under is 3-0-1 in last four Miami games.

Raiders (3-5) @ Ravens (6-2)—Baltimore won six of seven series games, but teams haven’t met since ’09; Raiders are 0-4 here, losing 28-6/29-10 in last two visits, last of which was in ’08. Oakland got run over last week by Bucs’ Martin, who had 265 yards on ground before giving few away on kneeldowns in last minute; they’re 1-3 on road, covering last two, but losing three of four, with losses by 22-31-3 points, and only win at 1-7 Chiefs.. Ravens’ 137 rushing yards last week was season high; they’re 4-0 at home, but 1-3 as home favorites, winning by 31-1-7-2 points at home. Baltimore allowed 24-43 points in its two losses; they had 26 plays of 20+ yards in first four games, only 11 in last four- they need more to protect injury-riddled defense. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 2-8 vs spread, 2-4 at home; AFC West underdogs are 4-7, 2-5 on road. Three of four Raven home games, five of last seven Oakland games went over the total.

Falcons (8-0) @ Saints (3-5)—New Orleans won 10 of last 12 games in one of NFL’s best rivalries (teams came into NFL a year apart), with five of last seven games decided by 4 or less points; Atlanta lost five of last six visits here, but are 8-0 this year, allowing only 15.3 ppg in four road wins (all vs teams with .500 or worse records, but Saints are 3-5). Saints won three of last four games, but wasn’t impressed by Monday night win over freefalling Eagles; loss of multi-purpose back Sproles (hand) hampers their quick passes out of backfield. Atlanta scored 17 TD’s on 54 drives in first five games, only five on 30 in last three, but they keep winning. Saints are 3-1 when they score 28+ points, 0-4 when they don’t; Falcons allowed 16.8 ppg in last four games; they’ve allowed more than 24 points once (Carolina) this year. Underdogs covered three of first four NFC South divisional games this year. Three of last four Falcon games stayed under the total.

Lions (4-4) @ Vikings (4-5)—Minnesota was outgained 341-227, didn’t score offensive TD, but had two TD’s on special teams in 20-13 (+3.5) win at Detroit in Week 4, just second win in last five games vs Lions, after they won 21 of previous 24 series games. Detroit’s 26-23 OT win here LY was their first in last 14 visits here; they’re 3-1 since bye, scoring 8 TD’s on 17 drives in last two games, with six of eight TD drives 80+ yards. Lions are 4-1 when they score 26+ points, 0-3 when they don’t; Vikings allowed 29.5 ppg in last four games, after giving up 15.8 in first five. Minnesota QB Ponder looked lost at Seattle last week, when Vikes lost by 10 despite running ball for 243 yards; Ponder’s averaged 2.2/6.0/1.7 ypa in last three games. Detroit has run ball for 117.5 ypg since the bye, after averaging 90.3 in first four games, so they’re making effort to take heat off Stafford by running ball better. Three of last four games for both sides went over the total.

Jets (3-5) @ Seahawks (5-4)—Much like Giants last week, Jet players have had to deal with hurricane-related issues to their homes, so long road trip west could help them re-focus; they’ve won eight of last ten series games, after losing first seven games with Seattle- they’re 3-4 in Pacific Northwest. Seattle much better team at home (4-0, scoring 23.8 ppg) with wins over Packers/Patriots; speedy WRs Tate/Rice allowed Wilson to become more dangerous improvising out of pocket. Curious to see how Jets change approach after getting drilled 30-9 by Miami in last pre-bye game, when normally reliable special teams fell apart in first quarter. NFC West teams are 13-10 vs spread in non-divisional games, 5-5 as favorites, 4-4 at home; AFC East teams are 12-10 vs spread, 7-6 on road, 4-4 as road dogs. Three of last four Seattle games went over total. Many moons ago, Pete Carroll was once HC of the Jets.

Cowboys (3-5) @ Eagles (3-5)—Do struggling teams have home advantage? Home folks ain’t happy with Iggles, who allowed Vick to get sacked seven times in 28-13 loss to Saints Monday night—could be that Reid’s long (and largely successful) run as Eagles’ coach is nearing an end, since Philly lost last three games, allowing 26-30-28 points- three of their four home games have been decided by 3 or less points, and now they face hated Pokes on short work week. Dallas lost four of last five games, with last three losses all by 6 or less points; they’ve run ball for just 169 yards on 66 carries (2.56 per carry) in last three games. Philly scored 20+ points in only two games this year, and lost both of those. Home teams are 0-4 vs spread (2-2 SU) in NFC East divisional games this season. Four of five Dallas road games stayed under total; three of four Eagle home games went over. Iggles won three of last four series games, but Dallas is 4-3 in last seven visits here.

Rams (3-5) @ 49ers (6-2)—Niners are bully team, allowing 6 or less points in four of last five games, but they’re just 2-2 when they allow more than 6 points; curious to see if Rams’ patchwork OL can give Bradford enough time to move chains with favorite target Amendola back in lineup. SF won seven of last eight series games, winning last four played here by average score of 30-9. St Louis lost last three games, scoring four TD’s on last 27 drives; they’re 2-2 as road underdogs, but haven’t forced a turnover in last three games (-4) after forcing nine (+2) in first five games. Niners scored 13-3 points in their two losses, running ball for just 89-80 yards; they’re 6-0 when they don’t lose the turnover battle, and are 2-2 as home favorites, with home wins by 8-4-27 points and a loss to the Giants. Underdogs covered four of first five NFC West divisional games. Six of last seven 49er games stayed under the total.

Texans (7-1) @ Bears (7-1)—Possible Super Bowl preview with both teams’ only loss to Green Bay; Bears are setting unreal pace of forcing turnovers, with 28 in eight games; Chicago is already +16 in turnover ratio halfway through season- they’ve scored eight TD’s on defense/special teams in last six games, masking an offense with a suspect offensive line. Houston is underdog for first time this year- they’re 3-0 on road, with wins at Broncos/Jets/Jags. Texans turned ball over six times (-6) in only loss; they only have three other turnovers all season (+5 for year). Houston won both series meetings, 24-5 here in 2004, 31-24 at home four years ago. NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 6-7 vs spread; AFC South road underdogs are 4-4. Four of last six Houston games, four of last five Bear games went over the total. NFC teams have turned table on AFC this year, with a xx-xx advantage in interconference games so far.

Chiefs (1-7) @ Steelers (5-3)—Pittsburgh OC Haley was dumped as Chiefs’ HC during last season; hard feelings exist between him and KC front office. KC coach Crennel hired former Oklahoma HC Gibbs to be new DC during bye week, with Crennel becoming more of overseer of program; Chiefs lost last five games (1-4 vs spread), scoring two offensive TD’s on last 42 drives- they still haven’t led any game in regulation this season, and were down 24-6 in only game they’ve won. Steelers won/covered last three games, allowing only four TD’s on 28 drives; they rallied from 10 down in 4th quarter to win in Swamp last week. This is just Chiefs’ second visit to Pittsburgh since ’89; their last was a 45-6 loss in 2006. Steelers won last meeting 13-9 LY at Arrowhead. AFC North teams are 2-8 vs spread as non-divisional favorites, 2-4 at home; AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 4-7, 2-5 on foreign soil. Six of eight Chief games went over total; four of last five Steeler games stayed under.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33041 Followers:38
11/08/2012 07:20 PM


Week 10

Trend Report

Thursday, November 8

8:20 PM
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Indianapolis's last 22 games on the road
Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games when playing Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis

Sunday, November 11

1:00 PM
Detroit is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Detroit's last 15 games on the road
Minnesota is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
Minnesota is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home

1:00 PM
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing Atlanta

1:00 PM
Buffalo is 1-17 SU in its last 18 games when playing New England
Buffalo is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New England's last 13 games when playing at home against Buffalo

1:00 PM
Denver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games
Carolina is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home

1:00 PM
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Oakland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games on the road
Miami is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games

1:00 PM
San Diego is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
San Diego is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 6 games on the road
NY Giants are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games on the road
Cincinnati is 3-11-3 ATS in its last 17 games
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

4:05 PM
NY Jets are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 18 of the NY Jets last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 9 games
Seattle is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets

4:15 PM
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games
St. Louis is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games

4:15 PM
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games on the road
Dallas is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 10 games

8:20 PM
Houston is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Chicago is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

Monday, November 12

8:30 PM
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33041 Followers:38
11/08/2012 07:21 PM


Week 10

Thursday Night Football: Colts at Jaguars

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3, 42.5)

The Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars were expected to battle it out for the AFC South Division basement this season. The Jaguars are holding up their end of the bargain, but thanks to a lot of Luck, Indianapolis has emerged as one of the surprising leaders for the conference's two wild card slots. Rookie Andrew Luck, the top overall pick in April's draft and successor to Peyton Manning, has directed the Colts to three consecutive victories and will vie for a fourth when Indianapolis visits the reeling Jaguars on Thursday night.

Jacksonville has lost five consecutive games and is tied with Kansas City for the league's worst record at 1-7. Playing at EverBank Field has not provided an edge for the Jaguars, who are the league's lowest-scoring team and have lost all four home games this season.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: This line has stayed steady at +3 while the total has been up and down but has returned to its opening of 42.5.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 40s. Winds are expected to blow NNW at 2 mph.

ABOUT THE COLTS (5-3, 5-3 ATS): Fellow rookie Robert Griffin III has garnered much of the early-season publicity, but Luck and the Colts have lost just one since falling at home to Jacksonville on Sept. 23. Luck threw a pair of touchdown passes and set an NFL rookie record by throwing for 433 yards in Sunday's 23-20 victory over the Miami Dolphins. It was his fourth 300-yard game, tying the rookie record held by Manning. The victory came in the first game attended by head coach Chuck Pagano, who left the team late in September to undergo treatment for leukemia. Somewhat overlook has been the performance by Indianapolis' defense, which has allowed an averge of 15.3 points during the three-game winning streak.

ABOUT THE JAGUARS (1-7, 4-4 ATS): After a pair of solid performances in narrow road losses at Oakland and Green Bay, Jacksonville turned in a woeful effort in Sunday's 31-14 loss to Detroit. The Jaguars gave up 21 second-quarter points and held the ball for less than eight minutes while running only 18 plays in the first half - a stat that quarterback Blaine Gabbert termed "pathetic." Jacksonville failed to score until Gabbert threw a pair of fourth-quarter scoring passes with the game well in hand. The Jaguars again will be without star running back Maurice Jones-Drew, who will sit out his third straight game. Jones-Drew led the league with 1,606 yards rushing last season and ran for 177 yards against the Colts in September.


* Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Jacksonville.
* Road team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.


1. Jacksonville is 6-21 in its last 27 games, but three of the wins have come against the Colts.

2. Less than 24 hours after Pagano delivered an emotional postgame speech, his doctor said his leukemia is in remission.

3. The Jaguars have a minus-92 point differential in their four home losses - the worst mark since 2002 among teams that have lost their first four home games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33041 Followers:38
11/08/2012 07:23 PM


Week 10

Tale of the tape: Indianapolis at Jacksonville

The surging Colts roll into Jacksonville to tackle the downtrodden Jaguars Thursday night. Find out how this AFC South battle breaks down with our tale of the tape.


The Colts are piling up yardage, but that hasn't exactly translated into a boatload of points in recent weeks. They've averaged over 430 total yards of offense per game on north of six yards per play, but have scored a grand total of only 59 points in their last three games. Rookie QB Andrew Luck has received heaps of praise following his 433-yard passing day against the Dolphins, but has topped 300 yards only once in three road games this season, posting a less than impressive 2:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Jacksonville has scored more than 15 points only once in its last five contests and has been outgained in terms of total yardage in seven of eight games so far this season. Running back Maurice Jones-Drew remains sidelined with a foot injury - bad news for an offense that is averaging just over 250 yards per game. On a brighter note, second-year QB Blaine Gabbert has made positive strides, tossing nine touchdowns compared to only five interceptions. He's found the end zone in seven of eight games, but has thrown multiple TDs only twice.

Edge: Indianapolis


Indianapolis' defense continues to improve, having allowed only 46 points combined over its last three games. A word of warning though. Those three contests have come against pedestrian offenses in the Browns, Titans, and Dolphins. Still, it's a step in the right direction after getting torched for more than 20 points in four of the first five games this season. The return of LB Pat Angerer from injury has solidified the linebacking corps, but there are concerns with CB Vontae Davis sidelined and DE Robert Mathis questionable to play.

The Jags defense has been on the field an awful lot this season, and we've seen signs of this unit tiring in recent weeks. Jacksonville has allowed at least 24 points in four consecutive games, giving up over 30 twice during that stretch. Home cooking hasn't helped, as the Jags are allowing a whopping 432 total yards per game at EverBank Field. They've forced just one turnover in their last two games after recording three in an overtime loss to the Raiders on October 21.

Edge: Indianapolis

Special teams

Indy hasn't made much noise with its return game, falling below the league average in both punt and kick return yardage. Veteran kicker Adam Vinatieri has struggled as well, connecting on only 16 of 22 field-goal attempts. With that being said, he did make good on a 43-yard game-winner against Miami this past Sunday. He also misfired on a pair of kicks in the same game.

Jacksonville has been even worse than Indianapolis when it comes to returning kicks. Kicker Josh Scobee gives the Jags a considerable edge, however, as he's a perfect 14 for 14 on field-goal attempts this season. The Jags have also been terrific defending punt returns, holding the opposition to an average of only seven yards.

Edge: Jacksonville

Word on the street

“You can’t say enough good things about him, from him as a human being to him as a football player to him as a teammate. He’s the kind of guy you really want your kids to grow up and become. He’s a professional, he does it with class and he’ll be a good one for years to come.” -- Colts DE Fili Moala giving high praise to rookie QB Andrew Luck.

“I’m disappointed that we are where we’re at. I know the players are. I certainly know the fans are. I just want them to know how they feel, we feel the same way. Everybody in that locker room feels the same way. We’re mad, too, very disappointed we’re in this position." -- Jaguars head coach Mike Mularkey speaking about the team's 1-7 start to the season.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33041 Followers:38
11/08/2012 07:24 PM

Short Sheet

Week 10

Thursday, November 8, 2012

(TC) Indianapolis at Jacksonville, 8:25 ET NFL
Indianapolis: 8-1 ATS on Thursdays
Jacksonville: 13-4 Over off a home game

Sunday, November 11, 2012

Buffalo at New England, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 12-4 Over as an underdog
New England: 2-10 ATS at home playing with rest

NY Giants at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
NY Giants: 8-1 ATS away off a home game
Cincinnati: 5-14 ATS off a loss

San Diego at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 0-6 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Tampa Bay: 27-12 ATS after scoring 30+ points

Denver at Carolina, 1:00 ET
Denver: 1-10 ATS off 3+ games scoring 30+ points
Carolina: 22-7 Under at home off BB ATS wins

Tennessee at Miami, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 4-15 ATS away off BB ATS losses
Miami: 9-1 Under off BB Unders

Oakland at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 3-13 ATS away vs. NFC North opponents
Baltimore: 13-3 ATS at home vs. AFC West opponents

Atlanta at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 3-14 ATS off BB games having 375+ total yards
New Orleans: 8-1 ATS at home vs. conference opponents

Detroit at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 1-9 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less
Minnesota: 15-5 Under after gaining 200+ rushing yards

NY Jets at Seattle, 4:05 ET
NY Jets: 1-9 ATS away off BB games allowing 25+ points
Seattle: 9-2 ATS off a home game

Dallas at Philadelphia, 4:25 ET
Dallas: 4-14 ATS vs. conference opponents
Philadelphia: 13-4 ATS at home off a loss by 14+ points

St. Louis at San Franisco, 4:25 ET
St. Louis: 2-11 ATS as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points
San Francisco: 10-1 ATS off a road game

(TC) Houston at Chicago, 8:30 ET NBC
Houston: 7-0 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
Chicago: 10-23 ATS at home off BB Overs

Monday, November 5, 2012

(TC) Kansas City at Pittsburgh, 8:40 ET ESPN
Kansas City: 9-1 ATS away off a road loss by 14+ points
Pittsburgh: 10-23 ATS as a favorite of 10+ points

** Week 10 Byes: Arizona, Cleveland, Green Bay, Washington **

(TC) = Time Change

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33041 Followers:38
11/08/2012 07:26 PM

NFL Week 10 Preview: Colts at Jaguars



Kickoff: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Indianapolis -3, Total: 42.5

The surging Colts seek their fourth straight victory (SU and ATS) when they take on the slumping Jaguars, losers of five in a row, on Thursday night.

Despite the current slide, the Jags have beaten Indy three straight times, including a stunner at Indianapolis in Week 3. The Colts took a 17-16 lead with less than a minute to go, only to have Blaine Gabbert throw an 80-yard TD to Cecil Shorts on the next play, accounting for more than half of Gabbert’s passing yards. The Colts outgained Jacksonville 437-333 in that game. Rookie QB Andrew Luck is on fire right now, throwing for an NFL rookie record 433 yards in last week’s home win over Miami. The Jaguars have numerous injuries in their defensive backfield. The Jags also have the worst offense in the NFL, and will likely be without RB Maurice Jones-Drew again because of his foot injury.

Can the Colts extend their winning streak in this divisional road game? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Luck is coming off an NFL rookie record for passing yards, but he has not been sharp in his three road games this year, posting a 63.3 passer rating due to a completion rate of 55.9% with just 2 TD and 6 INT. However, Jacksonville will be the weakest defense Luck will have faced on the road, as the Jags allow 256 passing YPG (25th in NFL). The league's leading receiver Reggie Wayne (835 rec yds) has faced them 21 times in his career, producing 125 catches for 1,760 yards and 6 TD. In his past six trips to Jacksonville, Wayne has 52 catches for 750 yards and a pair of scores. With No. 2 wideout Donnie Avery questionable (hip) and TE Coby Fleener out indefinitely (shoulder), Wayne will garner a lot of attention from the Jags secondary. That could free up backup TE Dwayne Allen for a big game too. But Indy hasn't just been a pass-happy offense, as the ground game is kicking into high gear with 139 rushing YPG during the three-game win streak. However, top RB Donald Brown who missed two games with a knee injury this year, injured his hip last week and will likely be a game-time decision. If he can't go, rookie Vick Ballard has performed admirably with a heavier workload, gaining 199 yards on 48 carries (4.1 YPC) in his past three games. He could have an even bigger day against Jacksonville's 27th-ranked run defense (137 YPG). Indy knows it needs to protect the football better, considering the team has nine giveaways in its two road losses in 2012.

With Jones-Drew doubtful to return to action, Rashad Jennings will continue to be Jacksonville's main ball carrier. But Jennings has averaged a paltry 49 rushing YPG and 3.0 YPC in the past three games. And after gaining more than 50 receiving yards in two straight games, he caught just three passes for seven yards in last week's 31-14 loss to Detroit. Jacksonville has failed to rush for even 70 yards in any of its past five games, a span in which they have a meager 13.0 PPG. Second-year QB Blaine Gabbert is improving though, tossing 9 TD and just 5 INT this year. As a rookie, he threw for 12 TD and 11 INT, while completing just 50.8% of his passes. And in three career meetings with the Colts, he has thrown for a mere 365 yards, 3 TD and 1 INT. Indy's defense has defended the pass much more efficiently (222 YPG, 11th in NFL) than the run this year (131 YPG, 25th in nation). However, the Colts have not forced a single turnover in any of their past four games, totaling just three takeaways for the entire season.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33041 Followers:38
11/08/2012 07:28 PM

Colts at Jaguars

November 7, 2012

Back in August when many were calling for the Colts to be one of the NFL’s worst teams, I had a different take. I liked the new offensive coordinator, Bruce Arians, who had an excellent run directing Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers.

When Indianapolis re-signed Reggie Wayne and defensive stalwarts like Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis were retained, I knew this transition year wasn’t going to be a total youth movement. Arians would use Wayne like Hines Ward, constantly putting him in motion and getting him the ball with quick, high-percentage throws.

Obviously, I liked the chances of rookie quarterback Andrew Luck producing like a solid veteran. Furthermore, I liked the under-the-radar pieces around him. Luck ran lots of two-TE sets at Stanford, so the Colts used their next two draft picks on tight ends, Stanford teammate Coby Fleener and Clemson TE Dwayne Allen.

Next, Indy took speedy wide receiver T.Y. Hilton, who enjoyed a banner career in the Sun Belt Conference at Fla. International. Even in the fifth and sixth rounds, the Colts found offensive talent with Mississippi St. RB Vick Ballard and Ohio WR Lavon Brazill, who is the Bobcats’ all-time leading receiver.

Now, to be clear, all I was saying back in August was that I thought this team could go 7-9. With its season win total at 5 ½ and shaded to the ‘under,’ I thought the ‘over’ was the way to go.

But did I see a 5-3 record both straight up and against the spread coming in the first eight games? No, but that’s exactly where the Colts are after capturing a 23-20 win over Miami as 2 ½-point home underdogs.

Luck completed 30-of-48 passes for a career-high 433 yards with two touchdown passes and zero interceptions. Hilton made six receptions for 106 yards, including a 36-yard TD grab from Luck that put Indy up 20-17 late in the third quarter. Wayne had seven catches for 78, while Allen had six receptions for 75 yards.

Ballard had 98 yards on 19 touches (16 carries, three catches).

For the season, Luck has completed 56.6 percent of his throws for 2,404 yards with a 10/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Luck also has three rushing touchdowns.

Indy is fourth in the NFL in total offense, producing 390.9 yards per game. However, yards haven’t always resulted in points, as evidenced by the Colts’ 23rd ranking in scoring offense (19.9 points per game).

Jacksonville (1-7 SU, 4-4 ATS) has lost 21 of its last 27 games dating back to a three-game losing streak to end the 2010 campaign. The Jaguars have a new owner, but they are in the NFL’s smallest market with a fan base that’s lost interest.

Mike Mularkey’s team is winless both SU and ATS in four home games, losing by margins of 20, 17, 38 and 20 points. The Jags got smashed 31-14 by Detroit last week as six-point home underdogs.

The Lions led 21-0 at intermission and 24-0 following a Jason Hanson field goal early in the fourth quarter. Jacksonville cut the deficit to 24-8 on a TD pass from Blaine Gabbert to Michael Spurlock and the subsequent two-point conversion.

But Detroit answered with a score to put the game on ice with a 31-8 advantage with 2:42 remaining. The only thing left in doubt was the total, which closed at 44 points.

Facing a fourth-and-goal situation in the final minute, Gabbert found rookie Justin Blackmon on a six-yard scoring strike to give ‘over’ backers a winner in Detroit’s 31-14 victory.

Gabbert has showed some life at times and his numbers are decent. The Missouri product has completed 58.0 percent of his passes for 1,429 yards with a 9/5 TD-INT ratio. Blackmon, the rookie first-round pick out of Oklahoma St., has been disappointing. He has 23 catches for 225 yards and last week’s TD grab was the first of his career and it came at garbage time.

Jacksonville ranks last in the NFL in total offense, passing yards and scoring offense, averaging merely 14.6 PPG.

The Jags will be without perennial Pro-Bowl RB Maurice Jones-Drew for a third straight game since he sustained a foot injury in a 26-23 loss at Oakland. Also, Jacksonville could be without a pair of key players in the secondary on Thursday, as Dwight Lowery is ‘doubtful’ and Rashean Mathis is ‘questionable.’

The Colts are also dealing with injuries. Fleener will miss a second straight game due to a shoulder injury and starting CB Vontae Davis is ‘out’ again with a knee problem.

These AFC South rivals met in Indianapolis earlier this year with the Jags collecting their lone victory, a 22-17 win as three-point road underdogs. Jones-Drew was the catalyst with 177 rushing yards and one TD on 28 carries. Gabbert threw an 80-yard TD pass to Cecil Shorts with 45 seconds left to provide the winning score.

The 39 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 41 ½-point total.

This time around, most books are listing the Colts as 3 1/2-point favorites with a total of 42 1/2. Bettors can take the Jags to win outright for a plus-155 payout (risk $100 to win $155).

Totals have been a wash overall (4-4) and at home (2-2) for the Jags, but we should note back-to-back ‘overs’ in their last two home games. The 'under' is 5-3 overall for the Colts, but the 'over' is 2-1 in their road assignments.

Indy has only played three road games and this is its first road ‘chalk’ situation of the season. The Colts are 1-2 both SU and ATS on the road, picking up their only win two weeks ago in a 19-13 overtime win at Tennessee.

The NFL Network will provide television coverage at 8:25 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--The Jags have covered the number and the 'under' has hit in three consecutive head-to-head meetings against the Colts.

--Wayne leads the NFL in receiving yards with 835.

--Green Bay linebacker Clay Matthews is tied for second in the NFL in sacks with nine. However, he left last week’s win over Arizona with a hamstring injury and is expected to miss the next several weeks.

--Philadelphia head coach Andy Reid has had a strong run with the Eagles, no question about it. You don’t hang around for tenures of 10-plus years in the NFL, especially in cities like Philly, without doing a lot of things right. However, his reign in the City of Brotherly Love will most likely end in the coming weeks because of the same criticism he has taken for many years: Reid refuses to run the football with any sort of consistency. In years past, this was ok because the Eagles didn’t have one of the league’s elite running backs. That’s no longer the case with LeSean ‘Shady’ McCoy at his disposal. Yet he insists on dropping Michael Vick back into the pocket behind a porous offensive line time after time after time, and the results – sacks, turnovers and third and longs galore – are predictable.

--My former cohort at VI, Jim Lamar of the Tallahassee Democrat, always recommended going against teams that have players-only meetings before a game. This was in play last week when Vick called a players-only rendezvous for the Eagles. The result was a 28-13 loss at New Orleans featuring most of the aforementioned problems this club has struggled with all year.

--The Eagles remain the NFL’s worst for our purposes with an atrocious 1-6-1 spread record.

--With each covering the spread again last week, the NFL’s best ATS teams at 6-2 are still the Texans, Falcons and Buccaneers.

--The ‘over’ is an NFL-best 6-2 for both the Patriots and the Bucs.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33041 Followers:38
11/08/2012 07:31 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

11/05/12 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
11/04/12 10-­14-­0 41.67% -­2700 Detail
11/01/12 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail

Totals 14-­14-­0 50.00% -­700

Thursday, November 8

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Indianapolis - 8:20 PM ET Jacksonville +3 500

Jacksonville - Under 42.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33041 Followers:38
11/08/2012 07:33 PM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 10

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 10:

San Diego Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 48)

Philip Rivers’ swagger vs. Bucs' bad pass defense

Philip Rivers has never had an issue with confidence before, wearing that shit-eating grin on the sidelines most Sundays no matter if the Bolts are winning or not. But, the Chargers’ cocky QB did need a little pick-me-up after losing three in a row. That boost came in the form of Kansas City and an 18-for-20 passing day for Rivers last Thursday.

With a bit of swagger back, Rivers takes aim at the Buccaneers’ porous pass defense, which ranks last in the league after allowing 321.1 yards through the air per game. Tampa Bay made Oakland QB Carson Palmer feel like it was 2005 again, watching the aging arm pass for more than 400 yards and four TDs. Palmer did, however, get picked off three times. But c’mon, it’s Carson Palmer.

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-6, 44)

Dolphins' retooled run game vs. Titans' terrible ground defense

The Dolphins are trying to get their groove back on the ground after having the turf pulled out from under them in recent weeks. Miami had a couple big rushing days – like 263 yards versus Oakland in Week 2 – to start the year but has since slowed down. The Fins are mustering just 3.8 yards per carry – 28th in the NFL – and offensive coordinator Mike Sherman isn’t happy about it. He’s shaking up the depth chart and focusing on the running game versus Tennessee, which is the perfect opponent to roll over.

The Titans have been road kill against the run all season, allowing 141.6 rushing yards per game (30th in the NFL). Tennessee was gashed by Chicago RB Matt Forte last weekend, allowing the Bears star to rumble for 8.6 yards per carry. Teams have gone for the throat against the Titans, calling more than 46 percent of their plays on the ground.

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (-1, 41.5)

Texans’ care taking vs. Bears’ scoring defense

The enigma that is the 2012 Chicago Bears was broken down by’s Kerry J. Byrne this week, with the finger pointing mostly at how far the defense has carried this team. Chicago’s stop unit causes chaos all over the field, averaging an insane 3.5 takeaways per game. The Bears are nearly averaging a defensive TD per game and came away with scores from Corey Wootton on a blocked punt and Brian Urlacher off an INT versus Tennessee last week.

However, if you don’t give away the ball, how is Chicago supposed to make those big plays? Houston may have this already figured out. The Texans protect the football like a teenage daughter and rank tops in the league in giveaways per game (0.8). They’ve only fumbled the ball twice and QB Matt Schaub has been picked off only four times, including clean sheets in the past two outings.

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-11.5, 43)

Steelers' speedy injuries vs. Chiefs’ new DC

Injuries are the great equalizer in the NFL, and with the Steelers suffering multiple mishaps to their speediest players, Pittsburgh could be in slow motion Monday night. The Steelers will be without road runners KR Chris Rainey and WR Antonio Brown and RB Jonathan Dwyer is nursing a groin injury which held him out of Week 9. The loss of those horses could have Pittsburgh leaning heavily on smash-mouth RB Isaac Redman. That’s not a bad thing, but it’s awful tough to cover all those points when you're slowly creeping down the field and keeping the clock on the move.

Kansas City should see a little more life on defense this Monday with head coach Romeo Crennel handing the stop unit over to Gary Gibbs. Crennel is dodging media criticism with the move, but letting Gibbs call the shots could shake things up with the assistant looking to make a name for himself. We’re not saying Kansas City – which sits 17th in total yards against and 30th in points allowed – is suddenly going to be a brick wall. But anything is better than the first nine weeks of the season.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33041 Followers:38
11/10/2012 11:53 PM

NFL Week 10 Preview: Cowboys at Eagles



Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -2, Total: 44.5

NFC East foes desperate for a victory clash on Sunday when the Cowboys visit the Eagles.

Both these teams are fighting for NFC East survival, as Philadelphia has lost four straight games and Dallas has dropped four of five. Philly swept the Cowboys a year ago, including a convincing 20-7 win in Big D on Christmas Eve. Dallas also managed just seven points in its previous matchups with the Eagles a year ago. QB Tony Romo was just 18-for-35 for 203 yards in the first game, then was injured in the first quarter of their second matchup. Eagles QB Michael Vick has torched Dallas since joining the Eagles, posting a 109.7 passer rating (6 TD and 2 INT) in three starts against them.

Which team will come away with the much-needed win? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Romo suffered a back strain on the last play of the Week 9 loss to Atlanta, but is expected to start on Sunday. He has thrown for 299.3 yards per game this season, but has just 10 TD and 13 INT. In his past 10 games versus the Eagles, he has a mediocre 5-5 record, 2,240 passing yards, 13 TD and 11 INT. With top RB DeMarco Murray (foot) still out, the Cowboys have all but given up trying to run the football. They have failed to surpass 85 rushing yards in six of the past seven contests, attempting just 35 carries (for 84 yards, 2.4 YPC) in the past two weeks combined. On the other side of the ball, Dallas has stopped opposing air attacks very well, allowing just 206 passing YPG (5th in NFL). The Cowboys are a mediocre 15th in rushing defense (107 YPG), but have held each of their past six opponents to less than 125 yards on the ground.

Vick was sacked seven times in last week's 28-13 loss in New Orleans, and the offensive line doesn't expect to improve anytime soon with RT Todd Herremans placed on IR after suffering a dislocated bone in his foot. He joins LT Jason Peters (Achilles) and C Jason Kelce (knee) on the sidelines, plus RG Danny Watkins (ankle) might not play on Sunday either. RB LeSean McCoy has been slowed by an illness, but he expects to start on Sunday. The last time Dallas visited Lincoln Financial Field, McCoy rushed for 185 yards on 30 carries (6.2 YPC) and 2 TD. On the defensive side of the ball, Philly has allowed 135+ rushing yards in each of its past four games, and has forced just four turnovers in the past six contests combined.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: