cnotes Posts:33353 Followers:38
On 11/01/2012 07:10 PM in NFL

Cnotes November's NFL Best Bets !

Chargers Solid Favorites Against Chiefs On Thursday

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers
NFL Betting Preview
Date: 11/1/2012 at 8:20 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: San Diego -8 ½, O/U 43 ½
Television: NFL Network

Update: Kansas City QB Matt Cassel will start since Brady Quinn has been ruled out due to a concussion.

Kansas City Chiefs: The Brady Quinn experiment could be over before it really got started, as the former Notre Dame quarterback's status for Thursday night's game is uncertain because he is being evaluated for a possible concussion suffered in a 26-16 home loss to the Oakland Raiders in Week 8. Quinn is expected to start if he is cleared to play, so make sure to check the NFL injuries page for the latest updates. Regardless of whether he or former starter Matt Cassel is under center against the Chargers, the Chiefs are still 1-6 straight-up - losing four straight - and just 2-5 against the spread. Kansas City head coach Romeo Crennel is definitely on the hot seat and must find a way to get the team's defense to limit opponents who have scored 35 points or more in four of the six losses.

San Diego Chargers: The Chargers and Chiefs were both coming off bye weeks heading into Week 8, but you would not know it considering their terrible losses last Sunday. San Diego QB Philip Rivers continued his struggles in a 7-6 road loss to the Cleveland Browns, completing 18 of 34 passes for a season-low 154 yards off his brutal performance against Denver in the team's previous game. About the only positive is that Rivers did not throw an interception for only the second time in seven games. The Chargers (3-4 SU and ATS) have dropped three in a row both SU and vs. the line following a 3-1 start. Their last win was a 37-20 victory at Kansas City in Week 4 that gave them a 3-2 SU edge in the series between the AFC West rivals over the last three years, although they are 2-3 ATS during that stretch.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33353 Followers:38
11/01/2012 07:11 PM

Chiefs at Chargers

November 1, 2012

When the NFL created its Thursday night schedule, it hoped to avoid matchups between teams with nine combined losses in a row. Nevertheless, that’s what we have this week when San Diego takes on Kansas City in Southern California.

Fortunately for the Chargers, they play in the AFC West and are only one game behind division-leading Denver. But Norv Turner’s team has dropped three straight and the head coach and General Manager A.J. Smith are on boiling hot seats.

As of Wednesday afternoon, most books were listing the Chargers as eight-point favorites with a total of 42 ½. Gamblers can take the Chiefs on the money line for a plus-290 return (risk $100 to win $290). Then on Thursday morning, the total dipped down to 41 1/2.

Just a few weeks ago, San Diego (3-4 straight up, 3-4 against the spread) went to halftime with a 24-0 lead over Denver and appeared poised to take a two-game lead in the loop.

However, Peyton Manning and the Broncos erupted in the second half and rallied to capture a 35-24 win as one-point road underdogs. San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers threw four interceptions, including one pick-six, and also coughed up a fumble that was returned for a touchdown.

After the Bolts had an open date to stew over allowing the fourth-greatest comeback in NFL regular-season history, they responded with a lethargic effort, losing 7-6 at Cleveland as three-point road ‘chalk.’

Robert Meachem dropped what would’ve been a 51-yard touchdown pass midway through the third quarter. San Diego could muster just a pair of field goals and it hasn’t been in the end zone in six straight quarters.

Rivers completed 18-of-34 passes for 154 yards. Reserve running back Ronnie Brown was his favorite target, hauling in seven receptions for 85 yards. Ryan Mathews rushed for 95 yards on 24 carries.

For the season, Rivers has connected on 64.6 of his throws for 1,646 yards but has a mediocre 10/9 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Malcolm Floyd leads the team in receiving with 29 catches for 461 yards and one TD. Perennial Pro-Bowl tight end Antonio Gates has 21 receptions for 238 yards and a pair of scores.

San Diego has been a high-octane offense for many years, but this year it is 25th in the NFL in total offense. The Bolts are averaging only 22 points per game.

San Diego is ranked 10th in the NFL in scoring defense, surrendering only 20.6 PPG.

Kansas City (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS) has lost four in a row, including last week’s 26-16 loss to Oakland as a one-point home favorite. Veteran QB Brady Quinn sustained a concussion in the first half and was relieved by former starter Matt Cassel.

The Raiders took a two-TD lead midway through the third quarter and cruised to the easy win. Cassel hit Dexter McCluster for a 10-yard scoring strike at garbage time to make the final score look more respectable. The 42 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 42 ½-point total.

Cassel completed 20-of-30 passes for 218 yards with one TD, one interception and one lost fumble. Javier Arenas also coughed up a fumble on a punt return.

Cassel had been benched in favor of Quinn, who was making his second start. The Notre Dame product, who is ‘doubtful’ this week, was ineffective in a 38-10 loss at Tampa Bay.

Cassel also suffered a concussion back in Week 5 during a 9-6 home loss to Baltimore. He has a 6/10 TD-INT ratio.

KC running back Jamaal Charles has rushed for a team-high 595 yards and two touchdowns, but he was given a season-low five carries last week against the Raiders. Charles is averaging 5.0 yards per carry.

Dwayne Bowe is the Chiefs’ best down-the-field threat. The former star at LSU has made 37 catches for 492 yards and three TDs.

Kansas City starting defensive lineman Glenn Dorsey has missed four straight games and he’s listed as ‘questionable’ this week.

For the Chargers, WR Vincent Brown remains ‘out’ and WR Eddie Royal is ‘questionable.’

The ‘over’ is 4-3 overall for San Diego, 2-1 in its home games. The ‘over’ is also 4-3 overall for KC, 2-1 in its road assignments.

The NFL Network will have the telecast at 8:25 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Once again, the highest total of the week involves the Saints. They have a 52 ½-point tally for their home game vs. the Eagles on Monday Night Football. As of Wednesday, New Orleans was favored by three (with juice) or 3 ½. After a few days of uncertainty, Andy Reid announced Wednesday that he was sticking with Michael Vick as his starting QB.

--Philadelphia has an NFL-worst 1-5-1 spread record.

--The NFL’s top ATS marks belong to the Falcons, Bucs and Texans, all of whom are 5-2 versus the number.

--The ‘under’ is an NFL-best 7-1 in Arizona games this year.

--The ‘over’ is an NFL-best 6-2 in New England games. After a pair of ‘unders’ to start the season, the ‘over’ has hit in six straight for the Patriots. They have an open date this week.

--Atlanta will take on Dallas in Sunday’s prime-time affair as a four-point ‘chalk.’ The unbeaten Falcons are 18-9-1 ATS as home favorites during Mike Smith’s five-year tenure.

--After throwing only 13 interceptions as a rookie, Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton has already been intercepted 10 times this year. That’s one of the main reasons why the Bengals have lost three in a row going into Sunday’s game vs. Denver. On Wednesday, Cincy head coach Marvin Lewis called out Dalton and LB Rey Maualuga to show more leadership. The Broncos are four-point road favorites.

--In response to rumors this week that the Jags might inquire about the services of Tim Tebow in a trade with the Jets before the deadline, Blaine Gabbert told the media, “I think we’re pretty satisfied here at QB.”

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33353 Followers:38
11/01/2012 07:13 PM

DD angle leans to KC

October 31, 2012

Kansas City heads to San Diego on Thursday for a divisional battle and the oddsmakers listed the visitors as eight-point underdogs, deservingly so.

It’s certainly hard to make a case for the Chiefs, who have dropped four straight. Plus the team is 1-2 both straight up and against the spread on the road, the setbacks coming by 18 and 28 points.

Despite the bad, there might be some good with Kansas City and the situation they face tonight. It’s understood that double-digit losses in the NFL do happen.

The angle that we bring to your attention is teams playing off double-digit losses in back-to-back weeks. The obvious notion is to continue to fade these bad teams but if you did that this season, you’d be 0-3 both straight up and against the spread.

Kansas City
Week 1 – Lost to Atlanta (24-40)
Week 2 – Lost at Buffalo (17-35)
Week 3 – Won at New Orleans (27-24) – Chiefs (+9, +310)

Week 1 – Lost to New England (13-34)
Week 2 – Lost at San Diego (10-38)
Week 3 – Won vs. Detroit (44-41) – Titans (+4, +180)

Week 4 – Lost at Houston (14-38)
Week 5 – Lost at Minnesota (7-30)
Week 6 – Won vs. Pittsburgh (26-23) – Titans (+6, +220)

Kansas City
Week 6 – Lost at Tampa Bay (10-38)
Week 7 – BYE
Week 8 – Lost vs. Kansas City (16-26)
Week 9 – TBD at San Diego

As you can see in the above notes, the trend is in play tonight for Kansas City.

Will it cash again? Well, the Chiefs aren’t a very good football team and they have lost their past four trips to San Diego, two of them by double digits as well. The Chargers are 1-2 both SU and ATS at home this season.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33353 Followers:38
11/01/2012 07:15 PM

NFL odds: Week 9 opening line report

We usually save our “Lines that make you go hmmm…” for later in the week, but Week 9’s Monday night matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and New Orleans Saints has everyone – from books to bettors – scratching their heads.

“This is a really tough game,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, told Covers. “The initial perception is that this is going to be a really good game, exciting with lots of scoring. But, in reality, it’s looking like a 17-14 game.”

Korner’s crew of oddsmakers sent out a suggested spread of Saints -5. Online books opened the game as low as New Orleans -3. Regardless of the opening line, it’s safe to say Week 9’s marquee Monday Night Football game features the two most disappointing teams of the 2012 season.

New Orleans, hindered by all the offseason drama of Bountygate, is 2-5 SU (3-4 ATS) and coming off an embarrassing 34-14 loss to the Denver Broncos Sunday night. The Eagles are also limping into Week 9, falling to 3-4 SU (1-5-1 ATS) after a 30-17 flogging by the undefeated Atlanta Falcons.

“I’m lost on this game,” laughs Korner. “One team will have to win, in that case we’ll go with the home team.”

Korner was baffled by the betting patterns for the Falcons-Eagles game, which saw Philadelphia open as the favorite and draw action throughout the course of the week. He’s even more surprised that many online books have opened this week’s spread as low as a field goal.

Korner admits New Orleans hasn’t performed much better, but the Saints are far from the hot mess that has become the Eagles’ season.

Quarterback Michael Vick continues to limit the offense, which has scored just 17.1 points per game (30th in the NFL). Rumors are picking up momentum that head coach Andy Reid – whose job is on the chopping block - may look to backup QB Nick Foles in an attempt to save the season and his job.

“I think Reid’s time is coming to an end,” says Korner.

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-9.5, 42.5)

By now, we’ve all read the cringe-inducing stats regarding the Chiefs and their futility this season and you could make an argument that Kansas City is the worst NFL team we’ve seen in some time.

The odds for Thursday night’s meeting between the Chiefs and Chargers are teetering on double digits at some markets while others have this standalone game as low as Bolts -8.

Korner says two of his oddsmakers brought spreads of 7.5 to the table while others had it as high as 10. He’s suggesting keeping this number as high as possible and sent out San Diego -9.5, even suggesting a move to -10 or above.

“You don’t want to be cheering for Kansas City come Thursday night,” he says.

Korner is throwing out the Chargers’ 7-6 loss to the Cleveland Browns Sunday, believing the bad weather had a lot to do with San Diego’s lack of offense. Quarterback Philip Rivers went just 18 for 34 and finished with 154 yards and no touchdowns.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants (-3.5, 47)

The Giants escaped a second-half collapse versus the Dallas Cowboys Sunday to improve to 6-2 and now return home to host the Pittsburgh Steelers, who beat up on New York’s NFC East rivals, the Washington Redskins, in Week 8.

Korner sent out the G-Men at -5 while online books are offering the defending champs as low as a field goal. He says people are thinking about New York’s dreadful second half in Dallas and forgetting the one important thing.

“New York won that game,” says Korner. “The Giants just plain win. For them to be 3-point favorites in Dallas, it should warrant them being bigger than 3-point favorites at home to a Pittsburgh team that isn’t the same ole Pittsburgh team.”

“It’s a really good game, and the Giants seem to always win these big games”

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-5, 47.5)

Korner believes football bettors are getting a deal on the Falcons as 5-point favorites, after sending out the lone unblemished squad as touchdown chalk at home on Sunday night.

“This is cheap,” says Korner. “(Atlanta) has firepower, it’s explosive, it’s playing good defense. If they can handle Philly on the road, they can surely handle Dallas at home.”

Korner says a lot of the parlay money for Sunday will be tied into this Sunday nighter, making it one of the deciding games of the Week 9 slate.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33353 Followers:38
11/01/2012 07:20 PM


Week 9

Kansas City at San Diego
The Chargers look to bounce back from their 7-6 loss to Cleveland last week and build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. San Diego is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Chargers favored by 13. Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-7 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.


Game 301-302: Kansas City at San Diego (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 120.947; San Diego 134.078
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 13; 39
Vegas Line: San Diego by 7 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-7 1/2); Under


Long Sheet

Week 9

Thursday, November 1


KANSAS CITY (1 - 6) at SAN DIEGO (3 - 4) - 11/1/2012, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 3-2 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


Short Sheet

Week 9

Thursday, November 1, 2012

(TC) Kansas City at San Diego, 8:25 ET NFL
Kansas City: 6-0 Under off a division game
San Diego: 18-7 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points



Week 9

Trend Report

Thursday, November 1

8:20 PM
Kansas City is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games when playing San Diego
San Diego is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing Kansas City


Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9

Chiefs (1-6) @ Chargers (4-3)—San Diego lost three in row since waxing Chiefs 37-20 (-2.5) at Arrowhead Sept 30, game where Chiefs turned ball over six times (-5), leading to Bolts’ 10-yard edge in average field position. KC has severe QB problems, with Quinn getting knocked goofy Sunday, and Cassel coming back from injury, was tossed around like piñata by Raiders Sunday; Chiefs have yet to lead any game in regulation this year- they trailed 24-6 in only game they won, at Saints. KC lost seven of last nine series games and last four visits here, by 1-29-31-3 points; long travel on short week makes this a tough task, even under normal circumstances. Chargers have only two 2nd half TD’s in last five games; since 2003, they’re 12-8-1 vs spread as divisional home favorite. AFC West home teams are 1-4 vs spread in divisional games. Five of Chiefs’ seven games went over the total.



Thursday, November 1

Tale of the tape: Kansas City at San Diego

The last-place Kansas City Chiefs head to San Diego for a critical mid-season AFC West showdown with the Chargers Thursday night. Find out how this matchup breaks down with our tale of the tape.


Lost. That's the word that best describes the Chiefs offense right now. Kansas City has scored a grand total of 32 points over its last three games, losing all three by a combined 41-point margin. The Chiefs have done a terrific job of phasing out their biggest offensive threat, RB Jamaal Charles, as he's carried the ball only 17 times in the last two weeks. The Chiefs’ QB competition is anything but heated, with Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn taking turns stinking it up.

The weather can take some of the blame for the Chargers’ problems on offense last week, but not all of them. Norv Turner has said that he plans on scaling back the offense and that seemed apparent in Cleveland, as the Bolts ran the ball 34 times and dinked and dunked their way to only six points in a losing effort. Quarterback Philip Rivers is in the midst of his worst season to date, throwing for just over 1,600 yards, 10 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Last week's game marked the first time since the season opener that he didn't throw an interception.

Edge: San Diego


The Chiefs were supposed to be much better defensively this season after a brutal, injury-plagued 2011 campaign, but that hasn't been the case so far. They've given up at least 24 points in six of seven games, allowing over 30 points on four different occasions. Away from home, they've been torched for a whopping 7.1 yards per play. In last week's 10-point loss to the Raiders, Kansas City failed to record a single sack but did hold Carson Palmer to just 14 completions on 28 pass attempts.

San Diego's defense got off to a terrific start, holding its first two opponents to just 24 points combined. It's been all downhill from there, however, as the Chargers have given up at least 20 points in four of their last five contests. They did limit the Browns to only seven points last week, but Cleveland went the ultra-conservative route after scoring an early touchdown and given the poor weather conditions. San Diego is averaging less than a sack per game at home this season.

Edge: San Diego

Special teams

With their offense struggling, the Chiefs would love to get a boost from their special teams Thursday night. They've been solid returning punts, averaging over 12 yards per return, but fall just under the league average in terms of kick return yardage, averaging 22.5 ypr. They've yet to notch a return touchdown but have given up one. Field goal kicker Ryan Succop has been perfect when called upon, going 8 for 8 on field goal attempts.

The Chargers continue to give Eric Weddle punt returning duty, even though he's given them little to no production in that department. Perhaps he'll find some room to run against a Chiefs team that is allowing over 14 yards per punt return. San Diego has been slightly better returning kickoffs, but is missing the presence of Eddie Royal. Nick Novak has been an adequate replacement for Nate Kaeding, making good on 7 of 8 field goal attempts over the last four games.

Edge: Chiefs

Word on the street

"The lead, it's very important, especially because we've never had a lead this year. It would be very important to start off a game and especially good since we're playing on Thursday night on national TV." -- Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles on the fact the team hasn't held a lead this season.

“You’re coaching on a week-to-week basis. I’m coaching to do the best job I can to get our team ready to play Kansas City. All those other conversations, they’re going to take place. You know they’re going to take place.” - Chargers head coach Norv Turner when asked about his job security.



Thursday, November 1

Thursday Night Football: Chiefs at Chargers

Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-9.5, 42.5)

Two struggling AFC West teams attempt to end losing streaks as the Kansas City Chiefs and San Diego Chargers kick off Week 9 on Thursday night. Kansas City suffered its fourth straight loss Sunday, when it dropped a 26-16 decision to the Oakland Raiders. The Chiefs, who never led in the contest, erased a 6-0 deficit but fell behind for good in the final minute of the second quarter and went on to lose at home to the Raiders for the sixth consecutive time.

San Diego dropped its third straight on Sunday, losing a 7-6 decision at Cleveland. The Chargers outgained the Browns with 265 total yards but were unable to find the end zone, settling for a pair of field goals by Nick Novak. The Chargers won the first battle between the division rivals on Sept. 30, posting a 37-20 triumph at Kansas City as they capitalized on six turnovers and scored 27 points in the first half.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: The Chargers opened as high as -10 and have been bet down as low as -7.5 at some online books. The total has dropped from 44 to 42.5 points.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid-60s. Winds are expected to blow WNW at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (1-6, 2-5 ATS): Kansas City's offense has struggled mightily as it has found the end zone just once over its last three games. After posting only two field goals in a home loss to Baltimore on Oct. 7, the Chiefs recorded their only touchdown in a setback at Tampa Bay on Oct. 14 on a fumble return following a blocked punt. They nearly were held without an offensive TD by Oakland, but Matt Cassel hit Dexter McCluster with a 10-yard scoring strike with just under 2 1/2 minutes remaining in the game. Cassel will return to the starting lineup Thursday in favor of Brady Quinn, who was ruled out of the game after sustaining a concussion against the Raiders. LB Derrick Johnson is looking to make his 101st career start.

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (3-4, 3-4 ATS): KR Richard Goodman's day did not last long Sunday as he injured his hamstring during his 21-yard return on the opening kickoff and did not return. Goodman has averaged 27.6 yards on 18 kickoff returns this season. QB Philip Rivers made his 103rd consecutive start. It is the second-longest streak among active quarterbacks behind the 127-game run by Eli Manning of the New York Giants. RB Ryan Mathews nearly posted his first 100-yard game of the season Sunday, falling five yards short. Mathews had a season-high 24 carries, two more than his total in a loss to Denver on Oct. 15.


* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in San Diego.
* Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Chargers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games in Week 9.


1. Kansas City's lone victory came in overtime at New Orleans.

2. San Diego has scored a total of six points over its last six quarters.

3. The Chiefs lead the NFL with 25 turnovers.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33353 Followers:38
11/01/2012 07:56 PM

Thursday, November 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Kansas City - 8:20 PM ET San Diego -9 500

San Diego - Over 40.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33353 Followers:38
11/01/2012 07:56 PM

Thursday, November 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Kansas City - 8:20 PM ET San Diego -9 500

San Diego - Over 40.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33353 Followers:38
11/03/2012 08:02 PM

Las Vegas Sharps Report - NFL Week 9
Sharps have been relatively quiet this week in NFL betting heading into tonight’s nationally televised game between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Diego Chargers. That tells you Las Vegas oddsmakers are doing a better job of posting opening lines (about time!). It also tells you that there are games where professional wagerers are lying in wait for better numbers over the weekend. Sometimes early and midweek silence speaks loudly when it comes to how the Sharps bet the NFL.

Let’s run through what the Sharps are betting and thinking this week. Games are presented in official rotation order.

No interest yet in this one on the opening line of Denver -3.5. If a game opens a half point away from a critical number, then DOESN’T move, you can determine Sharp intent very easily. If Sharps liked the dog, they would have bet immediately because the number three is so common. They didn’t do that, which tells you they prefer the favorite. There’s no reason to bet right away with a line like -3.5. This will either be a pass for Sharps or a play on the favorite before kickoff. The market has been giving Peyton Manning respect in recent weeks, and rightly so. At the very least, this indicates that Sharps are sold on Denver as a legitimate AFC power right now, and are convinced that Cincinnati is a non-threat this year even though they made the playoffs last season.

Another game that hasn’t budged off its opening number of GB-10.5. Sharps hit Green Bay hard last Sunday against a Jacksonville team that should have been overmatched. The Packers played so poorly that they almost lost the game outright! Sharps didn’t want to go back to the well again with a double digit home favorite. Arizona’ defense is better than Jacksonville’s, and has a double digit road upset at New England on its resume. Of course, Arizona looked so bad this past Monday against NFC power San Francisco that it’s hard to like them vs. another NFC power like Green Bay. Sharps will likely take the dog on game day if the public drives the favorite higher or pass on this game altogether.

Interesting game here matching two up-and-comers in the AFC. Both have rookie quarterbacks. Both have a chance to make the playoffs anyway because they play in weak divisions and have found a way to win some early games. Sharps have made it clear in recent weeks however that they don’t see these teams as even. Oddsmakers read that right, and opened Miami at -2 even though they were on the road. That would suggest Miami is 5 points better on a neutral field. Sharps hit Miami anyway! We’re seeing -2.5 in most places now, though it's likely that some Indianapolis home dog money would come in were the game to move to three. Indianapolis does qualify for basic strategy teaser play at the current line, taking them as a dog up to +8.5. The lessons here are that the market as a whole sees Miami as the clearly superior team in this spot, and moving forward, but percentage histories will dictate that Sharps will also be on Indy+8.5 in two-team teasers.

We have a big move here even though it was only half a point! Sharps bet Baltimore -3 on the opener, driving the line to -3.5. We’ve told you in the past that it takes a lot of money to move off a three, and if the line doesn’t snap right back to the key number, then you know support for the favorite is strong. This game moved to -3.5 and stayed there. Sharps don’t like Cleveland here, dealing with a well-rested divisional visitor. Byes have been good for the better teams this year, and the Ravens are off a bye. Maybe it’s best to say that the Sharps love the potential bye boost in this spot rather than the favorite. Baltimore was a team badly in need of a break given their prior injury situation and recent form.

Here that we have a move toward the dog. Houston opened at -11 and dropped down to -10.5. Buffalo does have garbage time capabilities, and Sharps do pay attention to quarterback quality at double digit spreads. We’ve told you in the past that some Sharps bet all double digit dogs just on principle. That segment wasn’t active with Arizona in Green Bay with the short preparation week and dismal performance of the Cards, but did step in here enough to move the line a tick. Houston money would likely come in at -10, but there’s skepticism the line will move that low. Totals have been quiet this week. The number here fell from 48.5 to 47.5 with some early Under money. The fact that we didn't see Under interest in Cincinnati, Green Bay, and Cleveland is a virtual weather report for those cities this weekend. Totals plummeted in the Midwest last week when weather was forecast to be a big influence (and early bettors showed a profit with that approach).

We probably have a weekend tug-of-war spot set up here just above the key number of three. Washington opened at -3.5, and nobody bet them. Some Sharps did play the dog, and there’s been enough interest in the dog that some stores are have changed the juice, or dropped the number to three with extra juice on the favorite. These teams seem evenly matched in a lot of ways, and both have young star quarterbacks. Home field is worth three points, and Washington has been in slightly better form this year. Ergo…Carolina +3.5 and Washington -3 are both Sharp plays because the chances of the game landing exactly on three are pretty good.

The Jaguars impressed enough Sharps last week that the opening line here of Detroit -4 has fallen to -3.5. Detroit has struggled to play up to expectations this season, turning most games into thrillers. You want the dog in thrillers! Sharps would hit Detroit if the game were to drop to the key number of three, unless a game day forecast of rain became a weather equalizer. Jacksonville becomes a more appealing play in the muck. Detroit is more dangerous in great conditions.

A full point move is rare this week, but we’ve had that in this matchup. Chicago opened at -4.5 and was bet down to -3.5. The Bears were lucky to win last week vs. Carolina, and didn’t sparkle offensively the week before against Detroit. Tennessee shocked Pittsburgh on this field recently. Those skeptical about the Bears have already bet. Those who still believe in both the Bears and the general NFC dominance of the AFC this year are waiting to see if the line drops further. They’d rather lay the three and are waiting to see if they get it.

Clear support for Seattle here. The opener of -4 has been bet up to -4.5 or -5. Given the general serenity of the markets this week, that seems like a thunderbolt! Sharps don’t think Christian Ponder is likely to have a good game on the road against this strong Seattle defense, given his recent struggles. This would have been a bigger play but the Vikings do have a few extra days of preparation time after playing a Thursday Nighter.

This will be the final game near the teaser window this week. Oakland opened at -1.5 and has stayed there in most places. That puts Tampa Bay +7.5 in the teaser window moving them up past the three and the seven. Some stores have moved the game line to Oakland -1 to avoid taking teaser bets. There's newfound respect for Tampa Bay from Sharps after their win in Minnesota, but it seems they’re saving their investments for games that have better prices and don’t involve cross-country trips, so for now at least they're using TB in teasers only.

The showcase game of the afternoon will be a tug-of-war game where the home favorite Giants will draw money at -3, but the respected road underdog Pittsburgh will be attractive at +3.5. The opener was Giants -3.5 and the tug started right away, at least with vigorish. This will be the most bet game of the afternoon, and sportsbooks will be furious if the final score lands exactly on Giants by three.

There are a lot of games in the 4-5-6 nether regions this week, between the key numbers of three and seven, and not near the teaser window. Atlanta opened at -4.5, but has been bet down to -4. Stat guys who believe turnovers regress to the mean are enthusiastic about Dallas posting some good results in the coming weeks. The Cowboys have playoff caliber raw stats but a horrible turnover differential. Also Atlanta doesn't have the look of a team likely to go undefeated, though they are home here where they've been extremely difficult to beat recently. Sharps have been waiting for the Cowboys to show up again since opening night.

Looks like we’ll finish the week Monday Night with another tug-of-war game. Sharps are generally skeptical of both teams right now, as each has consistently underachieved thus far in 2012. Still, it doesn't take an experienced Sharp to see that Michael Vick +3.5 against a really bad defense deserves some consideration, as does Drew Brees -3 at home on a fast track vs. a slumping opponent. For now, there’s more Vick interest than Brees interest because Sharps generally shade their passions toward the underdog, and they love getting a hook besides. The public will likely take New Orleans at -3 on game day, setting up another tug-of-war that sees sportsbooks praying the game doesn’t land exactly on the magic number.

That wraps up this week’s look at what the Sharps are betting in the NFL.
As Always, Good Luck Den!

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33353 Followers:38
11/03/2012 08:06 PM

Week 9 Tips

November 3, 2012

The NFC has had its way with the AFC this season, taking 20 of 32 meetings. However, the NFC owns a barely profitable 17-15 ATS record in interconference action, which includes a dreadful 0-4 ATS mark in Week 8. Four interconference matchups take place in Week 9, as the two early kickoffs feature NFC North squads heading to AFC South sites in the role of road favorites.

Bears (-3 ½, 43 ½) at Titans - 1:00 PM EST

The Bears have failed to cover in each of the last two home wins over the Lions and Panthers, as Chicago hits the highway looking for its sixth consecutive victory. Lovie Smith's club squeaked by Carolina last Sunday, 23-22, but couldn't cash as 8 ½-point favorites. Chicago makes its third-ever trip to Tennessee on Sunday, taking on a Titans' squad that had its modest two-game winning streak snapped by the Colts in an overtime setback last Sunday.

Tennessee's defense showed signs of improvement despite its loss to Indianapolis, allowing just six points in the first 57 minutes of regulation. The Colts tied the game with three minutes remaining, while Andrew Luck's touchdown pass in overtime gave the Titans their first loss this season as a favorite. The Titans have split a pair of games against NFC North foes, including a Week 3 overtime triumph as home 'dogs against the Lions, 44-41.

Chicago keeps delivering defensively by returning six interceptions for scores this season, resulting in a 3-1 'over' record when it picks up a defensive touchdown. The lone loss for the Bears this season came on the highway at Green Bay in Week 2, but Chicago outscored Dallas and Jacksonville by a combined 75-21 in two road victories.

Lions (-4 ½, 44) at Jaguars - 1:00 PM EST

Jacksonville returns home after covering in losses at Oakland and Green Bay as underdogs, welcoming in a Detroit squad that is desperate to return to the .500 mark. The Lions are riding three consecutive covers after escaping the Seahawks in the final minute last Sunday, 28-24 as 2 ½-point favorites. That victory was just the first in the favorite role in four tries for the Lions, but now Jim Schwartz's team has to jump the road 'chalk' hurdle this week.

The last time the Lions laid points on the road, Detroit was shocked at Tennessee in overtime, while allowing five touchdowns of 60 yards or more. The Lions aren't exactly the best bet in the NFL away from Ford Field, posting a 5-8 ATS record on the highway since the start of 2011. In seven road games against AFC opponents in Schwartz's tenure, the Lions have hit the 'over' five times, including four consecutive contests.

The Jaguars don't have much to be proud of this season, while losing all three home games by at least 17 points to the Texans, Bengals, and Bears. Maurice Jones-Drew will miss his second consecutive game with a foot injury, as Jacksonville has tallied just 20 points at home this season. Jacksonville will try to turn around its luck against NFC opponents, losing eight of its last nine in interconference action since 2010 (4-5 ATS).

Buccaneers at Raiders (-1 ½, 46 ½) - 4:05 PM EST

This isn't exactly the second coming of Super Bowl XXXVII, when Tampa Bay dominated Oakland, 48-21. Both these teams enter Sunday's contest with identical 3-4 records and road victories last week. The Bucs put together their most complete performance of the season, routing the Vikings as 5 ½-point road 'dogs, 36-17 last Thursday. Tampa Bay is the one of the most effective teams against the number in 2012, as Greg Schiano's club has cashed five of seven games.

The Bucs own a perfect 3-0 ATS record away from Raymond James Stadium, but all three of those covers came when receiving at least 5 ½ points. Josh Freeman has helped lead this Tampa Bay offense to plenty of points recently, cashing the 'over' in four consecutive contests. Interestingly enough, the two games that the Bucs failed to cash came with the pointspread at two points or less.

The Silver and Black goes for its first three-game winning streak since last November, as Oakland defeated two of the AFC's lackeys in Jacksonville and Kansas City the previous two weeks. The Raiders haven't broken through for bettors as a favorite, posting an 0-3 ATS record as home 'chalk.' The last time these two teams met came in the final week of 2008, as the Raiders upset the Bucs, 31-24 as 11-point underdogs to knock Tampa Bay out of the playoffs.

Steelers at Giants (-3 ½, 47 ½) - 4:25 PM EST

Due to the effects of Hurricane Sandy, Pittsburgh won't travel to New Jersey until Sunday morning with the lack of hotel availability in the area. The Steelers seek their third consecutive victory after putting together their most convincing performance of the season against the Redskins last Sunday, 27-12 as 4 ½-point favorites. The schedule is setting up nicely for Pittsburgh moving forward, but this will be no walk in the park on Sunday.

The Giants squandered a 23-20 lead against the Cowboys last week, but New York found a way to avenge an opening week loss and beat Dallas, 29-24. Tom Coughlin's club is a perfect 5-0 against teams outside the NFC East this season, but the Giants have been pushed to the limit in all four home contests. New York trailed by double-digits before rallying past Tampa Bay and Cleveland, while needing a touchdown in the final minutes to stun Washington two weeks ago.

The Steelers have struggled in Mike Tomlin's tenure as a road underdog, posting a 4-10 ATS record since 2007. One of those losses came in the opening week at Denver, while gong 1-3 ATS as a road 'dog against NFC opponents the last five years. The defense is still holding up without safety Troy Polamalu, holding four of the previous six opponents to 17 points or less

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33353 Followers:38
11/03/2012 08:08 PM

Total Talk - Week 9

November 3, 2012

Week 8 Recap

Once again, gamblers saw a nice balance with totals last. In the 14 games, the ‘over’ went 8-6 and on the season the ‘over’ is 60-57-1 and that doesn’t include Thursday’s outcome between the Chargers and Chiefs. For those of you who had the ‘under’ in that affair, our sincere apologies go out to you. San Diego led 10-6 heading into the fourth quarter before outscoring the Chiefs 21-7 in the final 15 minutes. The Chargers were aided with two defensive scores in the fourth quarter, pushing their season total to four touchdowns from the defensive unit.

Surprised? You really shouldn’t be because these second-half outbursts, in particular fourth quarter explosions, have been a reoccurring theme this season. Through eight weeks, there have been 60 defensive or special teams touchdowns. If the pace continues, we’ll see close to 130 touchdowns from those units scored. To put things in perspective, there were only 113 TDs scored from those units during the 2011 regular season.


In last week’s piece, we talked about handicapper Joe Nelson and his amazing run (76%, +2,437) in pro football this season. I’ve been with VI nine years and I’ve seen both good and bad ‘cappers – we don’t hide records! Joe’s got a great pulse on the league, especially with totals (13-3, 81%). We asked Joe what his secret was and he offered up some solid handicapping thoughts.

He explained, “The schedule certainly dictates a lot of my interest in certain totals. There often is an overreaction to short term results in the NFL, for example if a team has played a couple of high-scoring games against marginal defenses and then will face off against a very good defense there can be an opportunity.”

“It is also very important to take a close look at how the scoring has occurred in recent games. Is the team putting together consistent sustained drives or have they caught some breaks with turnovers or hit a few big plays that are not as likely to reoccur?”

“Before the season I definitely keyed in on a few teams that I felt would be good 'over' teams and a few that would be good 'under' teams early in the year but it is certainly not an automatic play each week. For example Baltimore was a team I felt would be a good 'over' bet as the defense seemed to be deteriorating despite. Sometimes those early season notions can be dead wrong and adjustments have to be made. I actually liked Jacksonville to be an 'over' team early in the season this year based on value that would be there from the low numbers the Jaguars had last season. And the preseason results showed much more passing but it became pretty clear they just don't have the personnel to put together consistent drives on offense.”

“I don't pay too much attention to total streaks other than understanding how a streak might impact a number being shaded and subsequently bet one way or another. Total streaks certainly get less attention than win/loss streaks but it only takes a few high-scoring or low-scoring games in a row to see some adjustments in the numbers. It is important to be aware of key numbers but for me a total rising above or below a key number will not automatically trigger a play. I think the core handicapping of the matchup is more important than the number.”


Since the NFL has stacked the schedule with divisional matchups in the later part of the season, it’s rare that you see teams finishing off their two-game sets this early. So far this season, there have been three divisional rematches and all three have gone ‘over’ in the second go ‘round, two of them cashing last week and the other being played just this past Thursday.

Week 8 – N.Y. Giants 29 Dallas 24 (OVER 48)
Week 8 – Miami 30 N.Y. Jets 9 (OVER 38 ½)
Week 9 – San Diego 31 Kansas City 13 (OVER 41)

On Sunday, Baltimore and Cleveland will meet for the second and final time. In Week 4, the Ravens beat the Browns 23-16 in a Thursday Night affair and the combined 39 points went ‘under’ the closing total of 43 ½. Just looking at the numbers that the oddsmakers posted, it’s very clear that both teams don’t have good defensive units. This week’s total opened at 42 ½ and has held steady at most shops.

Baltimore has won nine straight in this series and the ‘under’ has gone 6-3 (67%) during this span. When these two franchises clash, a total in the forties is very uncommon, something that’s happened three times in the last 20 instances which includes this year’s first encounter.

So do you stick with the trend and go ‘under’ or respect the oddsmakers’ ratings and go ‘over.’ Neither team has a very good defense, which always bodes well for high-scoring affairs. However, can Cleveland’s inconsistent offense do enough for this number? Baltimore is off the bye and at the very least, should be prepared for this battle. Also, remember what Joe Nelson said about the Ravens’ defense (see above).

Line Moves

The smart money went 1-2 with their total moves in Week 8. We published the piece on Friday but there were also some late moves on Sunday, clearly related to weather. The Steelers-Redskins, Dolphins-Jets and Chargers-Browns all got steamed down and the ‘under’ went 2-1 in those games, plus the Miami-New York (30-9) matchup was a possible middle for some players who took ‘under’ 40 during the week and ‘over’ 38 ½ before kickoff.

Here are the early moves at CRIS:

Carolina at Washington: Line opened at 46 and jumped to 48
Tampa Bay at Oakland: Line opened 45 and jumped to 47

Under the Lights

The ‘under’ continues to be a money-maker in these primetime games, despite the aforementioned Thursday outcome between the Chiefs and Chargers. On the season, the ‘under’ stands at 17-9 (65%) but this week’s SNF and MNF battles do have potential to see some points posted. The two games will be played indoors as the Falcons host the Cowboys and the Saints welcome the Eagles.

Fearless Predictions

Despite having some confidence, we came up short last week and lost 20 cents ($20) as the Best Bets went 1-1. The Team Total setback was offset with another Three-Team teaser winner. On the season, we’re up three bucks ($300) and looking to produce more profits in Week 9. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!

Best Over: Carolina-Washington 48

Best Under: Miami-Indianapolis 43

Best Team Total: Under 21 Seattle

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 39 Carolina-Washington
Over 43 Philadelphia-New Orleans
Under 47 Minnesota-Seattle

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: