cnotes Posts:32869 Followers:38
On 10/30/2012 07:20 PM in NBA

Cnotes October - November NBA Best Bets !


Boston at Miami

The Celtics look to build on their 8-3 ATS record in the last 11 meetings with Miami. Boston is the pick (+6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by only 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (+6 1/2). Here are all of today's picks


Game 501-502: Washington at Cleveland (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 110.629; Cleveland 116.914
Dunkel Line & Total: Cleveland by 6 1/2; 184
Vegas Line & Total: Cleveland by 5; 188 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-5); Under

Game 503-504: Boston at Miami (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 126.097; Miami 130.822
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 4 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 6 1/2; 186
Dunkel Pick: Boston (+6 1/2); Over

Game 505-506: Dallas at LA Lakers (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 117.030; LA Lakers 121.889
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 5; 191
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 9; 186
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+9); Over

Long Sheet

Tuesday, October 30


WASHINGTON (20 - 46) at CLEVELAND (21 - 45) - 10/30/2012, 7:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 61-86 ATS (-33.6 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 48-72 ATS (-31.2 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 29-45 ATS (-20.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 36-58 ATS (-27.8 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 185 and 189.5 points since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 4-3 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 4-3 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


BOSTON (50 - 36) at MIAMI (62 - 27) - 10/30/2012, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games against Southeast division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 87-121 ATS (-46.1 Units) in home games first half of the season since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 12-8 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 10-10 straight up against BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
12 of 20 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


DALLAS (36 - 34) at LA LAKERS (46 - 32) - 10/30/2012, 10:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 264-209 ATS (+34.1 Units) as an underdog since 1996.
DALLAS is 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) in road games first half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
LA LAKERS are 31-45 ATS (-18.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 6-5 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 6-5 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
8 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, October 30

Its too early to get crazy with investing here, but what else is there to do? No football til Thursday, its raining like hell outside. Here is some information for the first night of the NBA season.........

Obviously, no one is hot/cold right now; these are LY's numbers......

Hot Teams
-- Wizards won their last six games, allowing more than 85 points once.
-- Miami won NBA title last June, so they're pretty hot.

Cold Teams
-- Cavaliers lost seven of their last eight games.
-- Celtics lost five of their last six road games (2-4 vs spread).
-- Lakers are vastly different team now, but they went 7-10 in last 17 games last season. Mavericks lost last six games, getting swept by OC in playoffs.

-- Seven of last eight Washington games stayed under total.
-- Five of last six Boston games went over the total.
-- Four of last five Dallas games went over the total.

Last Year's Series Records
-- Washington won two of three vs Cleveland LY, with road team taking two of the three games.
-- Celtics had Miami down 3-2 in playoffs LY, but let them off hook.
-- Lakers were 4-0 vs Dallas LY, winning by 3-4-5-16 points.


Tuesday, October 30

Trend Report

7:00 PM
Washington is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games when playing Washington

8:00 PM
Boston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Boston is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Miami is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Miami is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing Boston

10:30 PM
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing LA Lakers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
LA Lakers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games
LA Lakers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games when playing at home against Dallas



Tuesday, October 30

NBA Opening Night: What bettors need to know

Washington Wizards at Cleveland Cavaliers (-5, 188.5)

A pair of young teams looking to improve upon last year's disappointing campaigns clash to open the season, but only one will have its star point guard running the show when the Washington Wizards travel to Cleveland to start a new campaign against the Cavaliers. The teams combined for just 41 wins in the shortened 2011-12 season but are optimistic about the future with talented young point guards at the helm.

The Wizards, however, will be without 2010 No. 1 pick John Wall, who is expected to miss the first month of the season with a stress injury in his left knee, and forwards Nene (plantar fasciitis) and Kevin Seraphin (strained right calf) also will miss the opener . Kyrie Irving, the 2011 top pick, is expected to start for Cleveland despite being listed day-to-day after having his four wisdom teeth removed last week. Washington won two of three meetings last season, including a 96-85 win in the only game in Cleveland.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, Fox Sports Ohio, Comcast SportsNet

LINE: Cleveland opened as high as 5.5 and has since been bet down. The total has moved from 190 to 188.5.

ABOUT THE WIZARDS (2011-12: 20-46, 29-36-1 ATS): Washington closed last season on a six-game winning streak but will have a hard time replacing Wall, who averaged a team-high 16.3 points and 8.0 assists last year. A.J. Price and Jannero Pargo will fill in at the point, and the Wizards will lean on rookie Bradley Beal, the No. 3 overall pick out of Florida, to pick up some of the scoring slack. New additions Trevor Ariza and Emeka Okafor will start in the frontcourt with second-year forward Trevor Booker.

ABOUT THE CAVALIERS (2011-12: 21-45, 31-35-0 ATS): The Cavaliers have gone 40-108 since LeBron James took his talents to South Beach, but Irving represents a brighter future. The reigning Rookie of the Year averaged 18.5 points, 5.4 assists and 3.7 rebounds last season. After adding Irving and power forward Tristan Thompson two years ago, the Cavs continued rebuilding through the draft by picking shooting guard Dion Waiters and center Tyler Zeller this year. They also have veteran center Anderson Varejao back after missing the final 41 games last season with a fractured wrist, and they added forward C.J. Miles to provide a spark off the bench.


* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Cleveland.
* Underdog is 12-5 ATS in the last 17 meetings.
* Road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.


1. Washington SG Jordan Crawford scored 49 points in two games against the Cavaliers last season.

2. The average age of Cleveland's opening night roster is 24.9 years, and the starting five averages 23.7 years.

3. Waiters has earned a spot in the starting lineup for Cleveland, marking his first start since high school. Waiters came off the bench for two years at Syracuse.

Boston Celtics at Miami Heat (-6.5, 186.5)

LeBron James and the host Miami Heat will get to watch their NBA Championship banner be raised to the rafters on opening night while the team on the other side tries not to focus on what went wrong in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Boston Celtics, who held a 3-2 lead on the Heat in that series before crumbling in Games 6 and 7, will get a chance for immediate revenge on Tuesday night.

The Celtics reloaded over the summer, re-signing forward Kevin Garnett and bringing in backcourt veterans like Jason Terry, Leandro Barbosa and Courtney Lee to fortify the bench. Miami did not rest on its laurels either, adding to its own team and possibly weakening Boston by signing away guard Ray Allen. While Allen is a nice piece to the puzzle, the Heat will go as far as James will take them. The reigning MVP won a gold medal with Team USA over the summer and told reporters recently that he wants to be the best player of all-time.

Over the past 10 seasons, the defending NBA champions are 7-3 SU but only 2-8 ATS in the season opener the following season. Even more surprising is the fact that reigning NBA champs have failed to cover on opening night in each of the past six seasons. The Mavericks, Lakers (twice), Celtics, Spurs and Heat have all fell victims to the ATS hangover.

TV: 8:00 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE: Miami opened as high as -8 in Las Vegas and has since been bet down to -6.5. The total has climbed from 184.5 to 186.5.

ABOUT THE CELTICS (2011-12: 39-27, 34-30-2 ATS): That Boston came within a game of making the finals last spring was somewhat of a shock. Allen and fellow No. 2 guard Avery Bradley were out or limited throughout the playoffs and Jeff Green missed the entire season. The Celtics are healthy at the moment and will use a deep rotation to keep players like Garnett, forward Paul Pierce and Green from wearing down. Point guard Rajon Rondo, who averaged 20.9 points and 11.3 assists in the seven-game series against Miami last spring, has drawn praise from his teammates and coaches and appears ready to step up as the leader of the team.

ABOUT THE HEAT (2011-12: 46-20, 32-34-0 ATS): Any questions about whether or not James was able to handle pressure situations were answered against the Celtics in Game 6 last spring. On the road and with his team against the wall, James crushed Boston’s celebration plans by putting up 45 points on 19-of-26 shooting and adding 15 rebounds. He went on to average a double-double in the finals and earn his first ring. Still only 28 years old, James will be aiming for his fourth MVP award in five seasons. Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, who both sat out the Olympics with injuries, played the preseason and are ready to go on Tuesday.


* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Over is 20-7 in the last 27 meetings in Miami.
* Celtics are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
* Home team is 15-7 ATS in the last 22 meetings.


1. Miami Heat coach Eric Spoelstra is making his offense more fluid and doing away with rigid positions. James will likely handle the bulk of the ball handling.

2. Boston took three of four from the Heat in the 2011-12 regular season, including a 115-107 victory in Miami in which Rondo piled up 18 points and 15 assists. That snapped a five-game losing streak in Miami.

3. James twisted his right ankle and took a kick to the face in Friday’s final preseason game but expects to play against the Celtics.

Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers (-9, 186)

Dallas star Dirk Nowitzki won’t play and Los Angeles star Kobe Bryant is doubtful when the visiting Mavericks and the retooled Lakers open the season on Tuesday. Nowitzki had arthroscopic surgery on his right knee on Oct. 19 and will likely miss the first month of the season. Bryant injured his right foot in a preseason game on Oct. 21 and hasn’t practiced since. Point guard Steve Nash and center Dwight Howard both make their Los Angeles debuts.

The Lakers acquired Nash from the Phoenix Suns and Howard from the Orlando Magic after their second straight second-round playoff exit. Pairing the two stars with Bryant and forward Pau Gasol will give the Lakers a four-star quartet hard to defend. Dallas is also recharging after winning the 2011 NBA title. The injured Nowitzki and veteran forward Shawn Marion are the only two remaining players from the title-winning squad.

TV: 10:30 p.m. ET, TNT

LINE: Los Angeles opened as high as -10 and has since been bet down to -8.5. The total has moved from 187.5 to 186.

ABOUT THE MAVERICKS (2011-12: 36-30, 32-34-0 ATS): Marion will be the only familiar face in the starting lineup of the revamped squad. The other scheduled starters are forward Elton Brand and recently acquired center Eddy Curry in the frontcourt and O.J. Mayo and Darren Collison in the backcourt. “This is what we got. That’s the way it is,” Marion said. “We can’t harp on it all day.” Center Chris Kaman (calf) will miss the game and his recent injury necessitated the signing of Curry.

ABOUT THE LAKERS (2011-12: 41-25, 28-38-0 ATS): Bryant didn’t participate in Monday’s practice and afterwards, the team termed his possible availability as a game-time decision. Bryant is noted for playing through pain but even some of his teammates doubt he will be able to play. “I know he’s a little down right now,” Howard said. “He seems down because he can’t get out there and practice with us.” Offseason acquisition Jodie Meeks is expected to start if Bryant can’t go.


* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Mavericks are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings in Los Angeles.
* Road team is 15-7-1 ATS in the last 23 meetings.


1. Los Angeles won all four games against the Mavericks last season and 14 of the last 17 regular-season meetings. However, Dallas swept the Lakers in the second round of the 2011 playoffs.

2. The Lakers went 0-8 in the preseason and five of the losses were by double digits.

3. The Mavericks waived troubled guard Delonte West on Monday. West was suspended twice this month for detrimental conduct.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: