cnotes Posts:33139 Followers:38
10/22/2012 07:00 PM

Cardinals & Giants Push NLCS To Decisive Seventh Game

St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants MLB Betting Preview
Date: 10/22/2012, 8:00 p.m. (ET) FOX
Opening Lines: Giants -140, O/U 7

Series So Far: San Francisco has battled back from a 3-1 deficit against the Cardinals to force Monday's deciding contest. The Giants got an outstanding performance from Barry Zito in Game 5 last Friday, a 5-0 whitewashing in St. Louis as +140 underdogs, and another solid effort from Ryan Vogelsong on Sunday night in a 6-1 victory. St. Louis has scored just one run in the last 19 innings and have been getting no help at all from the middle of the lineup as Matt Holliday, Allen Craig and David Freese are a combined 12-for-64 (.188 avg) in the series, and 3-for-20 (.150) in the last two losses. Pablo Sandoval and Marco Scutaro have been the offensive stars for the Giants, batting a collective .388 (19-for-49) in the NLCS with nine RBI between them.

Pitching Matchup: Kyle Lohse will make his fourth postseason appearance for the Cardinals while San Fran's Matt Cain gets the call for a fourth time this October. This is a rematch of the Game 3 battle at Busch Stadium that was delayed in the seventh inning for more than three hours before St. Louis eventually posted a 3-1 victory as $1.20 favorites. Lohse picked up the dubya in the NL Wild Card Playoff vs. Atlanta as well as Game 3 of the NLCS, and owns a 1.96 ERA in 18-1/3 playoff innings to date. Cain and the Giants are 1-2 in his three starts that have seen him tally a 4.67 ERA in just over 17 frames.

Odds & Ends: The Giants are 5-0 in elimination games this postseason while the Cardinals are 6-0 in the same situation dating back to the 2011 playoffs. NLCS crew chief Gary Darling will have plate duties for Game 7; the 25-year veteran was 20-17 'over' during the regular season, and worked Game 1 of this series which also went above the total.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33139 Followers:38
10/22/2012 07:02 PM

Giants try to complete comeback in NLCS Game 7



National League Championship Series Game 7 – Series tied 3-3
First pitch: Monday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: San Francisco -140, St. Louis +130, Total: 7

Although the Cardinals once held a 3-1 lead in the NLCS, the Giants have battled back to tie the series up, with the seventh and deciding game occurring Monday night in San Francisco.

Matt Cain has been generally spectacular this year for the Giants, compiling a 17-7 record, 2.93 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. But he has not looked like himself in the 2012 playoffs—despite averaging 6.8 innings per start during the season, he has averaged just 5.8 during the playoffs with a 4.67 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in three starts. He has had a tough time keeping the ball in the park, giving up four homers with at least one long ball in each of those three outings. He has never pitched well against the Cardinals in his career with a 2-4 record, 4.83 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. Kyle Lohse is also amid a stellar season with a 2.79 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 18-3 record. Unlike Cain, however, he has gotten better in the postseason—in his three starts thus far, he has a 2-0 record and 1.96 ERA. That includes outpitching Cain earlier in this series, a 3-1 win for the Cardinals in Game 3. That give Lohse three straight wins over San Francisco, where he carries a 1.90 ERA. Take ST. LOUIS and the money to advance to the World Series.

This rare four-star FoxSheets trend also backs the Cardinals:

Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 (ST. LOUIS) - revenging 2 straight losses where team scored 2 or less runs, a good team (54% to 62%) playing a team with a winning record. (41-18 over the last 5 seasons.) (69.5%, +32 units. Rating = 4*).

A major concern for the Cardinals entering this game is the health of outfielder Matt Holiday (tightness in lower back), who appears unlikely to play. But that could be a blessing in disguise with the star posting a subpar .597 OPS so far this playoffs. He has particularly struggled against Cain in his career against—In 50 career plate appearances he is hitting just .186. Matt Carpenter has proven to be a stellar outfield sub this postseason with a .983 OPS in his 14 at-bats. That could help Lohse, who is 4-2 with a 3.46 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in six career starts versus the Giants. Overall, Lohse is 4-0 in his past six starts dating back to September 18, posting a 2.65 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. Play on him, especially as he is supported by a bullpen with a 2.22 ERA in the playoffs this year.

The Giants have won the past two games off their ability to silence the Cardinals bats, keeping them to a total of one run and 12 hits. But with Cain's struggles, that may be difficult to do, so a lot will fall on the offense that has tallied 11 runs over the past two games, but scores just 3.8 runs per game in their home ballpark. Cain has been tremendous at home this year though, going 8-4 with a 2.18 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. And even though Cain hasn't been pitching particularly late into games lately, that should not be a problem for San Francisco, which has benefited from an extremely strong bullpen this postseason. Giants relievers have a 2.79 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in these playoffs. Cain has also shown the form in his career to be a great postseason pitcher—in his career he has a 2.09 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in six postseason starts after not allowing an earned run in 21.1 innings in the 2010 playoffs. Still, play against him as the favorite here.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33139 Followers:38
10/22/2012 07:05 PM



St. Louis at San Francisco
The Cardinals look to bounce back from last night's 6-1 loss and build on their 13-3 record in Kyle Lohse's last 16 starts after scoring 2 runs or less in the previous game. St. Louis is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Cardinals favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+120). Here are all of today's picks.


Game 927-928: St. Louis at San Francisco (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lohse) 16.776; San Francisco (Cain) 16.184
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-140); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+120); Over

Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, October 22

Lohse is 2-0, 1.96 in three postseason starts this year; he put 12 men on base in 5.2 IP of Game 3, but only one of them scored- that was his only start this year against the Giants. Cain is 1-2, 4.43 in his last four starts, finishing sixth inning once; he is 1-2, 5.89 in three starts vs St Louis this year. San Francisco lost three of its last five home games; under is 7-3-1 in their last eleven games overall. Cardinals won seven of last 11 road games; under is 6-3-1 in their last ten road games. St Louis scored 7-5-6 runs in its series wins; a total of two runs in the three losses. This is Game 7; managers will have lot shorter leash with the starting pitcher, if he struggles early.


Monday, October 22

Trend Report

8:07 PM
St. Louis is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
St. Louis is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games on the road
San Francisco is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games
San Francisco is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games at home


Long Sheet

Monday, October 22


ST LOUIS (95 - 79) at SAN FRANCISCO (100 - 73) - 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 95-79 (-3.1 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ST LOUIS is 42-46 (-8.9 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
ST LOUIS is 95-79 (-3.1 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
ST LOUIS is 58-52 (-6.3 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ST LOUIS is 62-59 (-11.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
ST LOUIS is 32-40 (-16.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 100-73 (+20.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 168-103 (+62.2 Units) against the money line when playing on Monday since 1997.
SAN FRANCISCO is 100-73 (+20.5 Units) against the money line in games played on a grass field this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 63-41 (+18.5 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
ST LOUIS is 23-13 (+12.8 Units) against the money line in October games over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 55-41 (+14.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 6-6 (+1.1 Units) against ST LOUIS this season
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.7 Units)

LOHSE is 4-2 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 3.46 and a WHIP of 1.410.
His team's record is 4-2 (+1.5 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-4. (-2.3 units)

MATT CAIN vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
CAIN is 2-4 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 4.83 and a WHIP of 1.370.
His team's record is 3-6 (-3.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-4. (+0.2 units)


Short Sheet

Monday, October 22

National League

NL Championship Series, Game Seven (Series Tied, 3-3)
St. Louis at San Francisco, 8:05 ET FOX
Lohse: 21-7 TSR off BB starts allowing 2 ER's or less
Cain: San Francisco 11-3 Under at home off BB games allowing 2 runs or less

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33139 Followers:38
10/22/2012 07:07 PM


Monday, October 22

NLCS Game 7 betting preview: Cardinals at Giants

St. Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants (-138, 7)

Series is tied 3-3

The San Francisco Giants look to complete their second historic comeback of the postseason when they face the St. Louis Cardinals in Game 7 of the National League Championship Series.

The Giants evened the series at three games apiece on Sunday with a 6-1 win behind seven strong innings from Ryan Vogelsong. San Francisco, which rallied from an 0-2 deficit to win the best-of-five NL Division Series, is seeking to become the seventh team to win an LCS after trailing 3-1 since the best-of-seven format was introduced in 1985. The Giants have won five straight when facing possible elimination during this postseason, but their 0-5 record in best-of-7 deciding games is the worst in major-league history.

The defending World Series champion Cardinals have won six straight winner-take-all games, and they’re hoping to have left fielder Matt Holliday available after he missed Game 6 with a back spasms. St. Louis has struggled to generate much offense this series, scoring just one run in its past 20 innings. The Cardinals’ defense has also been an issue, with several key errors contributing to an NLCS-record 10 unearned runs allowed.

The Giants have outscored St. Louis 10-1 in the last two games, and Marco Scutaro is leading the attack. The veteran second baseman is batting .458 (11-for-24) with five runs scored in the series, but the Giants are still waiting for Hunter Pence to produce in the middle of the order. Pence was 1-for-4 with three strikeouts on Sunday, and he’s 3-for-23 (.130) in the series. The Game 7 pitching matchup features the Giants’ Matt Cain against Kyle Lohse in a rematch of Game 3, when the Cardinals won 3-1.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, FOX

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for an 85 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the high 50s. Winds are expected to blow west at 13 mph earlier in the evening.

PITCHING MATCHUP: Cardinals RH Kyle Lohse (1-0, 1.59 ERA) vs. Giants RH Matt Cain (0-1, 4.05)

Lohse will be looking to improve his control after allowing one run with five walks on 108 pitches over 5 2/3 innings in Game 3. Pence is 14-for-50 (.280) against Lohse, who is 2-0 with a 1.96 ERA in three starts this postseason. Lohse was 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA in 33 starts and a career-best 211 innings during the regular season, and he’s 3-2 with a 3.78 ERA in five career starts against the Giants.

Cain didn’t allow an unearned run over 21 1/3 innings in the 2010 playoffs during the Giants’ World Series run, but he hasn’t been quite as sharp during this postseason. He’s 1-2 with a 4.67 ERA in three starts after yielding three runs over 6 2/3 innings in Game 3. Carlos Beltran is 7-for-19 with a home run against Cain, who is 2-3 with a 4.94 ERA in eight career starts against St. Louis.


* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in San Francisco.
* Under is 5-2 in Cains last 7 starts vs. Cardinals.
* Cardinals are 8-1 in their last nine games following a loss.
* Giants are 11-4 in their last 15 games as a home favorite.

UMP TRENDS - Gary Darling:

* Road team is 4-0 in Darlings last four games behind home plate.
* Home team is 16-7 in Darlings last 23 games behind home plate vs. St. Louis.
* Giants are 2-12 in their last 14 games with Darling behind home plate.


1. The Giants are 5-1 when scoring four or more runs in the postseason and 1-4 when scoring three runs or fewer. San Francisco is also 5-1 when scoring first this postseason.

2. St. Louis OF Jon Jay is batting just .184 (9-for-49) this postseason after going hitless in four at-bats in Game 6.

3. Giants C Buster Posey went 0-for-4 on Sunday and is 3-for-22 (.136) with no extra base hits and six strikeouts in the series.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33139 Followers:38
10/22/2012 07:08 PM

2012 NLCS: 5 Reasons the St. Louis Cardinals Will Win the NL Pennant in Game 7

So here we go. Just as I assumed before the series began, the 2012 NLCS has become a seven-game classic. The matchup on paper favors the Giants as their ace Matt Cain faces Kyle Lohse.

But don't be fooled by first glances. In spite of how the lineup looks on paper, there are some keys that I feel will ultimately carry St. Louis into their second straight World Series.

Here first, is key No. 5...

Believe it or not, it does matter. For each team's perspective lineups (assuming Matt Holliday plays tomorrow night), there is no contest in Game 7 experience: St. Louis would has seven starters who have played in a Game 7 (only Pete Kozma hasn't played in one).

By contrast, the Giants have no one with experience in a Game 7. Not Pagan, not Scutaro, not Posey, not even Pence or Blanco. History says, it does matter. In four of the last five postseason game Game 7's, the team with the most experience has prevailed (only the '08 Rays buck that trend).

What this says is, in a one game, winner take all setting, the pressure is different from "lose or you go home." The stakes are high for both teams, which changes the degree with which the game is played. Expect both managers to make some earlier decisions than normal. Case in point...

Here's a hypothetical: Let's say that Kyle Lohse throws a ton of pitches and wriggles out of a jam or two. Would it surprise you at all if Mike Matheny turned to his bullpen early and didn't risk Lohse getting into a situation he couldn't get out of?

I could easily see that happening. As such, having Wainwright available to pitch could be huge. While he hasn't been great on the road this year (four-plus ERA), Wainwright was absolutely filthy against San Francisco in Game 4.

And while the Giants could counter with Tim Lincecum (though it is doubtful with Cain pitching) right now, the advantage in the long relief goes to the Cardinals. So it would behoove St. Louis to get ahead early.

The combined nine "regulars" (Matt Carpenter included) for St. Louis hit a combined 33-for- 112 lifetime against Matt Cain. That's a .295 batting average. What that means is the Cardinals will have their chances to score.

It also means a slight deficit won't have the same type of foreboding that falling behind Ryan Vogelsong did. Over the last two years, the Cardinals have been more than just resilient: They have been very good. Their championship resolve will get tested against an elite pitcher tomorrow night. Expect them to respond like champions.

Some people are just night owls. In 2012, that has certainly applied to Kyle Lohse. Of his 16 regular-season wins, 12 of them have occurred in night games. As a matter of fact, he is tangibly better at night than in the daytime.

Let's compare: During the day, Lohse was 4-1 with a 3.55 ERA in 2012. But at night, he was a sparkling 12-2 with a 2.56 ERA. His effectiveness seems to have continued as such in the postseason.

Against the Nationals, Lohse went seven strong innings in Game 4 in Washington, leaving with a 1-1 tie. That was a night game. In the midday against San Francisco in Game 3 of this series, Lohse wriggled like bait on a fishing hook, but escaped after 5.2 innings with just one run allowed.

It is not a reach at this point: The guy is appreciably better at night. The San Francisco sunset is at approximately 6:22 p.m. PST. If the Cardinals have a lead at that time, they will win the pennant. You heard it here first.

Ultimately, the deciding factor here is what I will call in an unoriginal manner: "Cardinals Magic." This team has whatever that "it" is supposed to be. This was never going to be an easy series. The Giants are in many ways, a mirror image of St. Louis. I said that before the series began as well.

So how do you make a decision when two teams are so evenly matched? For me, it is going to be recent history. The Giants have won their last three elimination games, all against the Reds. The Cardinals have won their last eight, against the Astros, Phillies, Rangers, Braves and Nationals.

In other words, it hasn't mattered what scenario, what the circumstances and what the adversity, this team has found a way to win. What I will say is, they better not find themselves playing from behind too long. That is on Kyle Lohse. As I have shown you earlier, I don't worry so much about that.

What it will come down to is this gritty bunch looking the Giants in the eyes, staring down perhaps the most hostile of their road crowds during this run, and doing it one last time. They have been down to their last game, last inning, last out and last strike multiple times during these last two years. And they have remained standing. With the chips down one last time, I will go with the champs until they are dethroned.

The Giants impress me. The Cardinals make me believe.

Whoever wins will have survived. This will not be a blowout, nor will it be given away. St. Louis may lose, but I will go on record as saying they won't hand the Giants the pennant.

The knee-jerk reaction is to assume a tight pitching duel. I think that is actually likely. The key will be Lohse duplicating his Game 3 escape act because I anticipate the Giants having base runners. If he is able to give the Cardinals 6-plus innings, that means they will be in prime position to win.

Conversely, the first two innings will go a long way towards determining what kind of night the offense has against Matt Cain. Jump on him early and get a run or two and St. Louis will be in great shape. It's winner take all, and the real winner is anyone watching. It is going to be a classic.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33139 Followers:38
10/22/2012 07:13 PM

MLB Playoff Record:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/21/12 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
10/19/12 1-­1-­0 50.00% +­175 Detail
10/18/12 1-­1-­0 50.00% 0 Detail
10/17/12 0-­2-­0 0.00% -­1050 Detail
10/16/12 1-­1-­0 50.00% 0 Detail
10/15/12 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
10/14/12 4-­0-­0 100.00% +­2225 Detail
10/13/12 0-­2-­0 0.00% -­1225 Detail
10/12/12 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1110 Detail
10/11/12 5-­3-­0 62.50% +­1220 Detail
10/10/12 5-­0-­1 100.00% +­2520 Detail
10/09/12 2-­2-­0 50.00% -­240 Detail
10/08/12 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1110 Detail
10/07/12 4-­4-­0 50.00% +­55 Detail
10/06/12 1-­3-­0 25.00% -­1150 Detail
10/05/12 3-­1-­0 75.00% +­1610 Detail

Total: 35-20 63.63% +8576

Monday, October 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount

St. Louis - 8:00 PM ET San Francisco -133 500

San Francisco - Under 6.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: