cnotes Posts:33145 Followers:38
09/23/2011 07:10 PM

Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, September 24

Georgia won its last eight games vs Ole Miss, with underdogs covering five of last seven; Dawgs won last four visits here, but only one of four was by more than 7 points. Both coaches squarely on hot seat. Georgia is 5-7-1 in last 13 games as road favorite, 8-13-1 coming off win. Rebels covered one of last four as home dog- they lost 30-7 at Vanderbilt last week, outrushed 281-85. Not good. Georgia allowed 80 points in losses to Boise St/South Carolina. Both teams' only win is against I-AA club.

Underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in Cal's last seven visits to Seattle, as Bears lost last two trips here 42-10/37-23. Huskies are 4-3 as home fave under Sarkisian, after being 1-9 in last 10 tries before he was coach. Cal had an easy win over I-AA foe last week, while Washington was losing 51-38 at Nebraska squad that started three walk-ons on offensive line. Bears won only road game 36-33 in OT at Colorado, in game where Buffs outgained them by 212 yards. Since 2005, California is 4-7 as a road underdog.

SEC turned down West Virginia for membership this week, not sure that factors in here, but do know West Virginia is home dog for first time in six years; this will be a wild night in Morgantown. LSU already has two wins away from home, beating Oregon 40-27 (-1) in Dallas, then winning 19-6 at Mississippi State last week (-3.5). Mountaineers trailed Nofolk State 12-10 at half two weeks ago, then held off mediocre Maryland club 37-31 last week, getting outscored 21-10 in second half. LSU is 5-6-1 in its last twelve games as a road favorite.

Michigan coach Hoke was San Diego State's coach last two years; when Wolverines hired him, he said he would've walked all way to Ann Arbor from San Diego for this job. Betcha veteran Aztec players liked hearing that. SDSU covered five of last seven as a road dog; they struggled with both Army (14-all at half), Washington State (14-17 at half) last couple games, but won both 23-20/42-24. Michigan is 5-11 in last 16 games as a home favorite; they're +6 in turnovers, have conference opener up next.

Georgia Tech is 11-2 in last 13 games vs North Carolina, winning last six here by average score of 30-20 (3-3 vs spread); Jackets have 115 points, 986 rushing yards in two wins vs I-A opponents, with 378 yards thru air on only 10 completions (17 PA). Tar Heels covered five of last seven as road dog; soph QB Renner has unnatural poise for hia age. Underdogs covered five of last seven series games. UNC is just 7-22 on 3rd down vs I-A teams; they'll need more first downs to keep Tech offense off field.

Florida covered 10 of last 13 games as road favorite, but has Alabama up next, so possible trap game in Lexington vs Kentucky squad Gators have beaten 14 times in row, covering last four; Gators won last seven visits here, with five of seven wins by 21+ points. Wildcats had only 35 yards on ground in home loss to rival Louisville last week; UK is 3-5 as a home dog last 3+ years; they're 8-13-1 vs spread in game after last 22 losses. Florida won last three series games by average score of 51-8.

Underdogs are 5-0-1 vs spread in last six Notre Dame-Pitt games, with Irish 3-2 in last five visits here. Notre Dame has gained 432 yards a game but turned ball over 13 times in three games (-8), worst turnover ratio in country: Irish covered only one of last four as road favorite. Pitt blew big lead at Iowa last week, blowing 24-3 lead late in third quarter, losing to Hawkeyes 31-27. Panthers are 9-2 vs spread in game following last 11 losses; they're 9-7 in last 16 games as home underdog.

Home side won eight of last nine Florida State-Clemson games; FSU lost last four visits to Clemson by average score of 31-16; since 2004, State is just 8-12 as road favorites, but they're 16-8 vs spread in game following their last 24 losses. Clemson failed to cover its last three games as home dog; they're 8-6 in game following last 14 wins. Tigers still haven't led game at half (tied with Wofford, trailed Troy by 3). FSU QB Manuel was banged up last week. First road game of year for Seminoles.

Fresno State won last six games vs Idaho (4-2 vs spread) with last year's 23-20 home win only one of six by less than 10 points- they won last three visits here, 31-21/37-24/40-10, but Bulldogs are struggling so far in 2011, getting outrushed 216-84 in shaky 27-22 win over North Dakota last week- Idaho beat UND 44-14 the week before. Since 2006, Vandals are 6-10 as a home dog. Bulldogs have been outscored 58-25 in second half; they covered five of last six games as a road favorite.

UCLA/Oregon State are both struggling; Beavers switched to Mannion at QB this week, while Bruins named Brehaut starter, first time Neuheisel has named starting QB that early in week. Oregon State covered twice in last seven games as road favorite. UCLA is 4-12 as road underdog with Neuheisel, 5-9 in game following its last 14 losses. Underdog covered 7 of last 10 series games, with Bruins winning three of last four trips here. UCLA got whacked at home by Texas last week; Beavers had a bye.

Oklahoma State scored 38-36-56 points in winning last three games vs Texas A&M, with four of last five in series decided by 5 or less points; Cowboys gained 543+ yards in all three games this year, scoring 52.3 ppg in wins by 27-23-36 points- they're 7-6 in last 13 games as a dog on road. Aggies covered seven of last ten as home favorite; they won first two games this year by 32-30 points. Both sides stepping up in class in this one. Boith teams have senior QB; does that make over the play?

Underdogs are 4-1-1 vs spread in last six Oregon-Arizona games, with Ducks scoring 48-44-55 points in winning last three games by 19-3-10 points. Arizona gave up 37-37 points in losing last two weeks to prolific offenses of Oklahoma State (37-14), Stanford (37-10). Over last decade, Oregon is 18-13 as road favorite; Arizona is 9-2-1 in last dozen games as a home dog. Ducks won six of last seven visits here, with wins by 3-7-38-17-35-3 points. Oregon's last two games were against cupcakes, hard to tell much they've improved since opening 40-27 loss to LSU.

USC won its last 11 games vs Arizona State, winning last five visits to Tempe by 5-20-10-20-6 points- this is first time since '00 Sun Devils are favored over USC. ASU is 12-7 as home favorite under Erickson. First road game for Trojan squad that had only three takeaways in three home wins, by 2-9-21 points- over last decade, they're 6-3 as road underdog. ASU came close to beating Trojans last two years, losing 14-9/34-33; in last six series games, underdogs are 4-1-1 against the spread.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33145 Followers:38
09/24/2011 08:46 AM


Saturday, September 24

College football betting weather report: Week 4

Thunderstorms continue to be an issue for NCAAF games. Find out how the weather will impact your wagers in Week 4 of the college football season:

San Diego State Aztecs at Michigan Wolverines (-10, 57)

It looks like it’s going to rain on Brady Hoke’s parade when he faces his former team Saturday. The forecast in Ann Arbor calls for a 36 percent chance of the wet stuff and game-time temperatures in the high 50s.

CMU Chippewas at Michigan State Spartans (-21.5, 49.5)

Rain is also in the forecast for East Lansing, with a 30 percent chance of showers when Sparty hosts CMU.

EMU Eagles at Penn State Nittany Lions (-28.5, 44.5)

Rain could take the happy out of Happy Valley; there's a 58 percent chance of showers at Beaver Stadium.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Pittsburgh Panthers (+7, 55)

There’s a 41 percent chance of rain for Heinz Field Saturday, which is notoriously bad in the wet weather.

Temple Owls at Maryland Terrapins (-8.5, 52.5)

An 80 percent chance of rain and late-game thundershowers could slow down the action in College Park.

Bowling Green Falcons at Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (-3.5, 52.5)

There’s a 20 percent chance of rain in Oxford, Ohio for this MAC matchup.

Army Black Knights at Ball State Cardinals (+4, 50.5)

The forecast in Muncie, Ind., calls for a 34 percent chance of rain.

Ohio Bobcats at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (-4, 50.5)

Thundershowers are in the forecast in the Garden State. There’s a 75 percent chance of rain for this MAC-Big East battle.

Tulane Green Wave at Duke Blue Devils (-10, 56)

Thundershowers are in the forecast for Durham, N.C., with a 44 percent chance of rain.

UAB Blazers at East Carolina Pirates (-14, 61)

Thunderstorms could interrupt this C-USA clash, with a 60 percent chance of rain in Greenville, N.C.

Virginia Tech Hokies at Marshall Thundering Herd (+20.5, 47)

Joan C. Edwards Stadium could get rained on to start Saturday’s game against the Hokies. However, the skies are expected to clear up in the second half.

Kansas State Wildcats at Miami Hurricanes (-12.5, 47.5)

Coral Gables could get hit with thunderstorms Saturday. There’s a 50 percent chance of rain at Sun Life Stadium.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Virginia Cavaliers (-3, 52)

There’s a 50 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms in the forecast for Charlottesville.

Western Michigan Broncos at Illinois Fighting Illini (-13.5, 52.5)

There’s a 34 percent chance of showers in Champaign when the Broncos visit the Illini.

UConn Huskies at Buffalo Bulls (+9, 46)

Rain could dampen UB Stadium Saturday. There’s a 34 percent chance of the wet stuff.

UL Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns at FIU Golden Panthers (-17, 51)

A 50 percent chance of rain and possible thundershowers are in the forecast for Miami.

Florida Gators at Kentucky Wildcats (+19.5, 44)

Rain might be the only thing that can slow down the Gators in Lexington. There’s a 26 percent chance of rain for this SEC showdown.

UTEP Miners at South Florida Bulls (-29.5, 48.5)

Tampa could get hit with thunderstorms when the Bulls and Miners mix it up Saturday. There’s a 50 chances of showers.

Oregon Ducks at Arizona Wildcats (+14.5, 65.5)

Thunderstorms could affect this Pac-12 tilt. There’s only a 10 percent chance of rain, but thunder and lightning aren’t out of the question.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33145 Followers:38
09/24/2011 08:51 AM


Saturday, September 24

LSU at West Virginia: What bettors need to know

Louisiana State Tigers at West Virginia Mountaineers (+5.5, 48)

THE STORY: It’s another primetime game for No. 3 LSU, which has already knocked off two ranked opponents in Oregon and Mississippi State and is gaining more and more national attention with each impressive victory. The Tigers rank sixth nationally in total defense and third in rushing defense, which is even more eye-opening considering the quality of opponents they have played. In its first season under coach Dana Holgorsen, No. 16 West Virginia is also off to a 3-0 start but has yet to face a ranked opponent. This is the second meeting. Last year, LSU opened up a 17-0 second-quarter lead and held on to win 20-14 in Baton Rouge.


LINE MOVES: This game opened at -5.5 in favor of LSU and has moved to 6 at some shops. The total opened as high as 50.5 but has since dropped to 48.

ABOUT LSU (3-0, 2-1 ATS): As it turned out, the suspension of quarterback Jordan Jefferson prior to the season opener hasn’t mattered as much as many experts speculated. First, backup Jarrett Lee has proved to be more than capable as an efficient game manager. And second, the defense has been so dominant, the Tigers haven’t needed many points. In last week’s 19-6 win at Mississippi State, LSU held the Bulldogs’ strong ground attack to 52 yards on 34 carries. Sophomores Spencer Ware (226 yards, three touchdowns) and Michael Ford (218, four) lead a powerful LSU rushing game.

ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (3-0, 1-2 ATS): The Mountaineers have won 18 straight non-conference home games since losing to Virginia Tech in 2005, but will have their hands full against the Tigers, who haven’t lost a non-conference regular season game since 2002. West Virginia led by as many as 24 points last week against Maryland but gave up 21 unanswered points in the second half. The Mountaineers held on for a 37-31 victory, but not before allowing 477 total yards. West Virginia is averaging 434.7 yards per game, which ranks 23rd nationally.


- Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as road favorites.
- Mountaineers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as underdogs.
- Over is 4-1 in Tigers' last five non-conference games.
- Over is 11-4-1 in Mountaineers last 16 games as home underdogs.


1. LSU has a nation-best 35-game regular-season non-conference winning streak.

2. West Virginia ranks seventh in the nation with 356 passing yards per game.

3. "To say it's not going to be a challenge would be crazy." Holgorsen, on facing LSU.

PREDICTION: LSU 24, West Virginia 20 - The Bayou Bengals should have a little more trouble stopping a Holgorsen-led offense than they did against Mississippi State, but in the end, LSU will get the job done.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33145 Followers:38
09/24/2011 08:59 AM

SEC Showdowns

September 23, 2011

Editor's note: Brian Edwards has been dominating college football so far this year, cashing tickets at a 17-5 clip (77.3%, +1155!). Don't miss his six-selection pick pack for Saturday's action in Week 4.

The top two teams in my power rankings face daunting challenges in Week 4. I’m talking about Alabama, my No. 1 squad, hosting Arkansas, and LSU, who I have ranked second, going to Morgantown to face West Virginia.

As of late Friday afternoon, most books were listing Alabama (3-0 straight up, 2-1 against the spread) as an 11-point favorite with a total of 50 ½. Gamblers can take the Razorbacks to win outright for a plus-350 payout (risk $100 to win $350).

Nick Saban’s team trailed 20-7 at Arkansas late in the third quarter of last year’s meeting but thanks to a pair of Ryan Mallett interceptions, it rallied to score 17 unanswered points to get out of Fayetteville with a 24-20 win.

The Crimson Tide has rolled to victory in its first three games against Kent St. (48-7), Penn State (27-11) and North Texas (41-0). They took the cash in their first two games before failing to cover as 47-point home favorites against the Mean Green last Saturday.

Other than the presence of All-American candidate Trent Richardson, a junior running back from out of Pensacola Escambia High School, there are a lot of unknowns with the Alabama offense. Marquis Maze is an excellent wide receiver, but he doesn’t have the size or home-run capability of a Julio Jones.

A.J. McCarron is the starting quarterback as a true sophomore. To date, McCarron has completed 64 percent of his passes for 539 yards with two touchdowns and a pair of interceptions. Both picks came in Week 1 vs. Kent St.

Richardson had 11 carries for 167 rushing yards and three TDs last week. For the season, he has 50 carries for 315 yards and eight TDs with a 6.3 yards-per-carry average. His back-up, sophomore Eddie Lacy, had 161 rushing yards and a pair of scores on just nine carries against No. Texas.

As for Alabama’s defense, there are no issues on this side of the ball. With the possible exception of LSU, the Tide has the nation’s stingiest stop unit. It has given up just 18 points in three games, though this will certainly be its toughest test to date.

Arkansas (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) has a dynamic offense despite the absence of RB Knile Davis, who sustained a season-ending knee injury in August after rushing for more than 1,300 yards and 13 TDs last year. Davis has been replaced by Ronnie Wingo, who rushed for 109 yards and scored three touchdowns last week.

Mallett has been replaced by junior QB Tyler Wilson, who showed us what he was made of in a brilliant performance in relief at Auburn last season. Wilson is completing 68.6 percent of his throws for 822 passing yards with five TDs and two interceptions.

He has one of the country’s best group of WRs, although two of them didn’t play in last week’s 38-28 non-covering victory over Troy as a 23-point home favorite. Jarius Wright and Greg Childs will both be back in the lineup at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Wright, who had 11 catches for 171 yards and three TDs in the Hogs’ first two games, didn’t play against the Trojans due to a sore knee. Childs wasn’t with the team because of the death of his grandmother.

Arkansas will be without one of its best defensive players in DE Jake Bequette, who will miss his second straight game with a hamstring injury. Bequette had a team-high seven sacks in 2010.

Alabama has won all four head-to-head meetings with Arkansas since Saban took over in 2007, but the Hogs are 5-2 ATS in the last seven encounters.

Both teams have seen the ‘under’ go 2-1. Alabama’s games have been played to the following scoring outputs: 55, 38 and 41. As for Arkansas, it has seen these combined numbers: 58, 55 and 66.

VI handicapper Antony Dinero, who has produced more than 18 units of profit in a mere three weeks of action in college football, definitely likes Alabama to win but cautions bettors about laying the points.

“I think it's human nature to want to sell Tyler Wilson short, but it's true, he's not Ryan Mallett,” Dinero said on Friday afternoon. “He doesn't have sure-fire next-level ability and is going up against a freakishly talented secondary, bigger and faster than most. Ball hawk Mark Barron is back for what seems like his 10th season and will help keep a strong Razorback receieving corps at bay.

“Bobby Petrino's team will have to be cautious and can't win games that way. It plays into the hands of Bama, which wants to run almost exclusively and let AJ McCarron come along slowly in what will be his first truly big game. At home in a huge contest for the first time since last season's Auburn collapse, look for Nick Saban and his staff to stress finishing strong, but that run-oriented style does make the Tide susceptible to getting back-doored.”

In the primetime slot on ABC at 8:00 p.m. Eastern, West Virginia (3-0 SU, 1-1-1 ATS) will take on LSU. Most spots have installed the Tigers as six-point favorites with a total of 48. The Mountaineers are plus-185 on the money line (risk $100 to win $185).

LSU (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) is going on the road for a second straight week after beating Mississippi St. by a 19-6 count as a 3 ½-point road favorite last Thursday in Starkville. Spencer Ware rushed for 107 yards and Jarrett Lee threw for 213 and one TD, a 19-yard strike to Rueben Randle that put the Tigers in front 16-6 early in the fourth quarter.

Lee is busy writing quite the redemption story so far this year. He’s in command of team that’s one of the top candidates to win the national title thanks to the suspension of Jordan Jefferson. Remember, Lee threw seven interceptions for touchdowns in 2008. But he didn’t transfer, stuck it out and is now reaping the benefits.

Lee will get another weapon to work with Saturday, as junior WR Russell Shepard returns from a three-game suspension. Shepard had 33 catches last season and rushed for a pair of scores.

WVU is coming off a 37-31 win at Maryland as a one-point road favorite. The Mountaineers raced out to a 34-10 lead early in the third quarter, only to see their advantage cut to three early in the final stanza. Nevertheless, Dana Holgorsen’s team took the cash and held on for the victory thanks to a 388-yard passing day from QB Geno Smith.

In its first two games, WVU beat Marshall (34-13) and Norfolk St. (55-12). The ‘over’ is 2-0 for the ‘Neers, as all bets were “no-plays” (pushes essentially) in Week 1 when their win over Marshall was stopped before 55 minutes of play due to lightning.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33145 Followers:38
09/24/2011 09:26 AM

Saturday, September 24

Game Score Status Pick Amount

North Carolina - 12:00 PM ET Georgia Tech -6.5 500
Georgia Tech - Under 57.5 500

Central Michigan - 12:00 PM ET Central Michigan +21.5 500
Michigan State - Over 49.5 500

San Diego State - 12:00 PM ET Michigan -10 500
Michigan - Under 56.5 500

Toledo - 12:00 PM ET Toledo +2 500
Syracuse - Over 56.5 500

Eastern Michigan - 12:00 PM ET Eastern Michigan +28.5 500
Penn State - Over 46.5 500

Notre Dame - 12:00 PM ET Notre Dame -7 500
Pittsburgh - Under 56 500

Southern Methodist - 12:00 PM ET Memphis +23.5 500
Memphis - Over 54 500

UL Monroe - 12:00 PM ET Iowa -17 500
Iowa - Over 49.5 500

Georgia - 12:20 PM ET Georgia -10 500
Mississippi - Over 53.5 500

Temple - 12:30 PM ET Temple +8 500
Maryland - Over 52.5 500

Bowling Green - 1:00 PM ET Bowling Green +4 500
Miami (Ohio) - Under 52.5 500

Ohio - 2:00 PM ET Ohio +4 500
Rutgers - Under 51 500

Army - 2:00 PM ET Army -4 500
Ball State - Over 50.5 500

Tulane - 3:30 PM ET Duke -10 500
Duke - Over 56 500

Alabama-Birmingham - 3:30 PM ET East Carolina -14.5 500
East Carolina - Under 62.5 500

Colorado - 3:30 PM ET Ohio State -16.5 500
Ohio State - Under 47.5 500

UCLA - 3:30 PM ET UCLA +4.5 500
Oregon State - Over 52.5 500

Florida State - 3:30 PM ET Clemson -2.5 500
Clemson - Under 48 500

Southern Mississippi - 3:30 PM ET Virginia -3 500
Virginia - Under 52 500

California - 3:30 PM ET Washington -1 500
Washington - Under 58.5 500

Virginia Tech - 3:30 PM ET Marshall +20.5 500
Marshall - Over 46.5 500

Arkansas - 3:30 PM ET Alabama -11 500
Alabama - Over 49.5 500

Western Michigan - 3:30 PM ET Western Michigan +14 500
Illinois - Over 52 500

Kansas State - 3:30 PM ET Kansas State +12.5 500
Miami - Over 47.5 500

Oklahoma State - 3:30 PM ET Texas A&M -4.5 500
Texas A&M - Over 67 500

New Mexico State - 4:00 PM ET New Mexico State +10.5 500
San Jose State - Under 46.5 500

Middle Tennessee State - 4:30 PM ET Troy -12 500
Troy - Under 64 500

Fresno State - 5:00 PM ET Idaho +3 500
Idaho - Over 51.5 500

Connecticut - 6:00 PM ET Connecticut -9.5 500
Buffalo - Under 45.5 500

UL Lafayette - 6:00 PM ET Florida International -16.5 500
Florida International - Under 50 500

Evening Games Posted After am back from my round of golf....GOOD LUCK GANG !

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: