cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
10/05/2012 04:58 PM

Tech Trends - Week 6

October 4, 2012

Thursday, Oct. 4
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

EAST CAROLINA at UCF...ECU has won three of last four meetings but has covered only of those (LY's 38-31 upset at Greenville). UCF 9-6 as home favorite (and 5-2 laying DD at home) since 2010. Slight to UCF, based on team trends.

SOUTHERN CAL at UTAH...Remember the way this one ended a year ago? Lane Kiffin just 1-3 vs. line this season and 0-2 as road chalk. Utes covered as home dog vs. BYU on Sept. 15 but Whittingham just 1-2 as home dog since 2010 and just 7-15 vs. spread last 22 on board since mid-2010. Slight to SC, based on recent Utah trends.

ARKANSAS STATE at FLORIDA INT'L...Gus Malzahn 2-3 vs. line TY after ASU was 10-3 vs. spread a year ago. But if FIU getting points note 9-4 dog mark since 2010 and 3-0 mark as home dog. Slight to FIU, especially if dog, based on team trends.

Friday, Oct. 5
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

PITTSBURGH at SYRACUSE...Pitt has covered last three and won SU last seven vs. Cuse. Marrone 1-3 vs. line TY and 4-12 since 2011. Cuse 2-6 last 8 as dog. Pitt, based on recent Cuse woes.

UTAH STATE at BYU...USU 27-11 overall as dog since 2007, 20-5 as road dog that span. Utags have also covered last four vs. BYU. But Cougs 9-5 as Provo chalk since 2010 after Hawaii win. USU, based on team and series trends.

Saturday, Oct. 6
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

NAVY at AIR FORCE...Falcs have turned this around by winning the past two seasons and helping Force to claim Commander-in-Chief back-to-back years. Although Mids still 7-1-1 vs. spread last nine meetings and have covered last five trips to Colorado Springs. Force only 3-10 as Falcon Stadium chalk since 2010. Navy, based on team and series trends.

MICHIGAN STATE at INDIANA...Spartans won over IU by 55-3 score LY! Road team is 5-0 vs. line in early MSU games this season (Spartans 1-0 on road vs. spread) and Dantonio 10-3 as road chalk since 2007. Kevin Wilson 6-10 vs. spread with Hoosiers since LY. MSU, based on road chalk mark.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at BALL STATE...Cards 9-2 last 11 vs. number since mid 2011, including cover at DeKalb late LY. Lembo has also turned around what was a poor Ball State home spread mark by covering three of last four at Muncie. Huskies only 4-5 vs. line away since LY and Cards have covered 3 of last 4 in series. Ball State, based on recent Lembo marks.

BOSTON COLLEGE at ARMY...West Point 5-1 vs. line at home since LY in a reversal of previous spread form. BC only 4-7 as chalk (though 2-0 as road chalk) since 2010. Army, based on recent home mark.

BOWLING GREEN at AKRON...BGSU 1-3 vs. line last 4 TY, Akron 3-1 vs. line last 4 TY. Falcs 0-2 as MAC chalk since 2010. Akron, based on recent trends.

MIAMI-OH at CINCINNATI...Long-standing local rivalry has mostly favored Cincy lately, as Bearcats have covered last two easily and are 5-1 vs. number last six against RedHawks. Cincy hasn't lost SU to Miami since 2005. Cincinnati, based on series trends.

GEORGIA TECH at CLEMSON...Revenge for Dabo after Paul Johnson dealt Clemson its first defeat of 2011 a year ago. Paul Johnson 17-11 vs. line on road while at GT (although only 5-8 since 2010), but only 5-6 as dog since 2010. Dabo no covers last three in Death Valley and only 3-7 vs. spread last 10 on board since mid 2011. Slight to GT, based on team trends.

VIRGINIA at DUKE...Duke has had the spread edge lately in series, standing 4-0-1 vs. line last five vs. Cavs. UVa only 6-11-1 vs. spread since 2011 and 1-6 against number last seven on board since late LY. Cutcliffe has covered first three at Durham TY and is 17-10-2 vs. number overall since 2010. Duke, based on series and team trends.

SOUTH FLORIDA at TEMPLE...Skip 3-11 last 14 on board since early in 2011 campaign. Temple, based on recent Skip woes.

NORTHWESTERN at PENN STATE...O'Brien has recovered from Ohio loss with four straight Nittany Lions covers, although PSU still just 3-6-1 vs. line at Beaver Stadium since LY. Pat Fitzgerald 15-8 as road pick or dog since 2007, although remember that PSU brutalized NU in recent years (covered handily each of last three years). Slight to NU, based on recent trends.

KENT STATE at EASTERN MICHIGAN...Not much home edge in Ypsilanti for EMU, now 5-17 vs. line at Rynearson Stadium since 2007. Rugged Kent State, however, just 5-9 vs. line away since 2010 (1-1 TY), but 2-1 as road chalk since 2010. Kent State, based on extended EMU home woes.

UCONN at RUTGERS...Pasqualoni physically battered Rutgers LY but Scarlet Knights had covered previous three in series. Scarlet Knights 4-0 SU TY but 0-1 as home chalk, and 'Gers 0-3 laying DD at Piscataway since 2010. Pasqualoni only 1-4 as road dog since LY, however. Slight to Pasqualoni, based on team trends.

FLORIDA STATE at NC STATE...Revenge for O'Brien after getting routed 34-0 at FSU LY. We are almost to the point where the "go with NCS" kicks in for O'Brien after game five on schedule but note he is 10-4-1 vs. line at Raleigh since 2010 and 26-15-1 overall as dog with Wolfpack since 2007. NCS, based on team trends.

UMASS at WESTERN MICHIGAN...WMU is 8-3 as Waldo Stadium chalk since 2010 and 5-2 as DD Waldo chalk that span. WMU, based on Waldo chalk marks.

VANDERBILT at MISSOURI...James Franklin now no covers last three away from Nashville (0-2 TY) and just 2-6 vs. spread on road since LY. Slight to Mizzou, based on recent Vandy road woes.

TEXAS A&M at OLE MISS...Sumlin 13-5 vs. line since LY at UH & AM. But Hugh "Pointspread Cover" Freeze 4-1 vs. line at Ole Miss and 14-3 vs. spread since LY (Ark State & Rebs). Ole Miss, based on Freeze marks.

VIRGINIA TECH at NORTH CAROLINA...Beamer only 5-14 vs. line since LY. Fedora 3-0 vs. line at home TY but Beamer 32-19 vs. points away since 2004. VT, based on extended road mark.

WASHINGTON at OREGON...Ducks have dominated this series lately, winning and covering last eight meetings. Though Ducks had failed to cover last eight as DD Eugene chalk prior to recent romp past Arizona. Huskies only 2-5 vs. line on road since LY. Oregon, based on series trends.

GEORGIA at SOUTH CAROLINA...Spurrier has beaten Georgia past two years and is 4-0-1 vs. line last five in series. Mark Richt 0-5 as road dog since 2010. Cocks 7-3 vs. line last 10 at Williams-Brice. South Carolina, based on series and team trends.

WEST VIRGINIA at TEXAS...First Big 12 road game for WVU! Holgorsen was 3-1 as dog LY and Mounties 8-2 as dog going back to the 2007 season. Mack 5-10 vs spread at Austin since 20110 (but 4-4 since LY). WVU, based on team trends.

IOWA STATE at TCU...Paul Rhoads 4-1 vs. line last five away from Ames, 5-3 as road dog since LY. Frogs have covered first two as Fort Worth chalk TY but were only 2-5 in home chalk role LY and only 7-10 last 17 on board overall. Slight to ISU, based on recent trends.

ILLINOIS at WISCONSIN...Bielema 1-6 vs. line last 7 on board. Bielema was 6-1 vs. line at Madison LY but 0-3 thus far in 2012. Illini was 6-1 as dog the past two seasons but Beckman 0-1 in role after loss at ASU. Slight to Illinois, based on recent Bielema spread woes.

KANSAS at KANSAS STATE...Bill Snyder has won and covered all three vs. KU since his return to KSU sidelines in 2009, and has brutalized Jayhawks past two years with 59-point scoring explosions each time! Snyder now 15-1 SU last 16 in series! Snyder also 12-5 vs. line since 2011. KSU, based on Bill Snyder marks.

UCLA at CALIFORNIA...Underdog team has covered in first five Cal games this season. Tedford was 9-1 as home chalk past two years (including last year across SF Bay) but has failed to cover first three in role TY. Bears have beaten Bruins last six SU at Berkeley. Mora 2-0 vs. line on road. Slight to UCLA, based on recent trends.

ARKANSAS at AUBURN...Hogs 0-5 vs. line for John L. but Chizik only 1-3 vs. line this season and 6-11 vs. spread post-Cam. Host has covered last three in series. Auburn, based on recent John L. woes.

MICHIGAN at PURDUE...Danny Hope's Purdue is 3-0 vs. line TY and on 9-3 spread run since mid 2011. Boilermakers have covered 3 of last 4 in series, and Brady Hoke just 1-3 vs. line TY. Purdue, based on recent trends.

WYOMING at NEVADA...Wyo 15-4 as road dog since 2009 but just 14-15 vs. number since 2010. Chris Ault 25-12 as Reno chalk since returning to Pack sidelines in 2004. Nevada, based on home marks.

NEW MEXICO STATE at IDAHO...DeWayne Walker has covered the last two years vs. Akey. Idaho 5-12 vs. spread last 17 at Kibbie Dome. NMSU, based on recent Idaho home woes.

ARIZONA at STANFORD...Tree only 2-2 vs. line TY (1-2 as chalk) after 11-2 spread mark LY and 19-7 over the past two seasons. Tree did win and cover last two vs. Arizona with Andrew Luck. Zona 0-1 vs. line away TY and 4-10 last 14 away since late 2009, Rich-Rod teams just 3-12 their last 15 on road since 2008 at Michigan. Stanford, based on recent trends.

OKLAHOMA at TEXAS TECH...Revenge for Stoops after upset loss vs. TT in 2011 (Stoops 3-1 vs. line last two years in role). Tuberville 4-0 vs. line early in 2012. Home side has covered 5 of last 6 meetings including Red Raiders covering both at Lubbock. TT, based on team and series trends.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at TOLEDO...Despite upset win at Iowa, Dan Enos' CMU just 4-20 last 24 on board since early 2010. Toledo has won and covered last two meetings. Toledo, based on CMU spread woes.

BOISE STATE at SOUTHERN MISS...Boise 23-7 its last 30 away since the 2008 season. Boise, based on team trends.

RICE at MEMPHIS...Ugh! Memphis 0-2 vs. line at home TY, 0-21 vs. spread at Liberty Bowl since 2007. Physical Owls were just 2-10 vs. line away the past two seasons but have covered their first two on road in 2012, and they're 9-3 in rare chalk role since 2007(2-1 since 2010). Rice, based on Memphis negatives.

WAKE FOREST at MARYLAND...Road team has covered in all four Terp games TY, and Edsall no covers last nine as host since LY! Deacs just 4-10 vs. line away since 2010. Slight to Wake, based on recent Maryland home negatives.

MISSISSIPPI STATE at KENTUCKY...Joker on the ropes, 1-4 SU and vs. line TY, now 6-13 as dog since taking over Cats in 2010. Dan Mullen is 3-0 SU and vs. line against UK. MSU, based on team and series trends.

WASHINGTON STATE at OREGON STATE...With the exception of a shock 31-14 home loss in 2010, Beavs have mostly dominated series, now 9-2 vs. line last 11 vs. Cougs. Mike Riley 2-0 SU and vs. line TY though beware of his 1-7 chalk mark the past two seasons. OSU, based on series trends.

UNLV at LOUISIANA TECH...Uh-oh, here we go again with UNLV on the road, 0-14 SU and 1-13 vs. line away since Bobby Hauck arrived in 2010, now 8-32 vs. number as visitor since 2005. La Tech on 10-1 spread run since mid 2011 though Sonny Dykes only 2-3 as home chalk since LY. La Tech, based on team trends.

TULSA at MARSHALL...Tulsa 10-5 vs. line away since 2010 (6-5 as road chalk). Doc Holliday has covered his last four as home doggie since 2010. Slight to Marshall, based on Doc Holliday home dog mark.

MIAMI (FL) vs. NOTRE DAME (at Soldier Field in Chicago)...Brian Kelly 4-0 SU and vs. line TY but Al "Touch of" Golden 6-2 vs. line away since arriving with Canes LY and his teams are 22-12 vs. points away since 2007 (Temple & ND). Golden teams also 19-10 as dog since 2007 (4-2 at Miami). Miami, based on extended Al Golden road/dog marks.

OHIO...Bulls out-hit Solich in 38-37 upset LY, but home team has covered 4 of last 6 and 6 of last 9 meetings. Solich 2-0 as DD home chalk TY after 0-3 mark at Peden Stadium in role LY. Ohio, based on series trends.

NEBRASKA at OHIO STATE...Bo Pelini no covers in three as road dog LY and covered just one of four (1-2-1) on Big Ten road LY. Home team 6-1-1 vs. spread last seven reg.-season Husker games dating to late 2011. Slight to Ohio State, based on recent trends.

HAWAII at SAN DIEGO STATE...Norm Chow appears to have some problems as UH has been buried in its last two games vs. Nevada & BYU by combined 116-24 score! UH 6-12 last 18 on board. But Rocky Long just 4-8 as chalk since taking over at SDSU and his teams are 13-22 last 35 as chalk at Lobos and Aztecs. Slight to SDSU, based on team trends.

FRESNO STATE at COLORADO STATE...FSU 5-0 vs. line TY including 2-0 on road. McElwain 1-4 TY for CSU and Rams just 6-13 vs. line last 19 on board since late 2010. Fresno, based on recent trends.

LSU at FLORIDA...Will Muschamp has now covered three straight as Gators begin ascent. Les Miles has won and covered last two vs. Gators after dropping previous five vs. line in series. Muschamp was 0-5 as dog LY but 1-0 in role TY (vs. Tennessee). Miles 7-2 as road chalk since 2010. Slight to LSU, based on recent trends.

TEXAS STATE at NEW MEXICO...Franchione returns to New Mexico! Bob Davie 2-0 vs. line at home TY! UNM, based on team trends.

SMU at UTEP...June Jones 7-12 last 19 and 10-17 last 27 on board as SMU spread fortunes plummet. Mike Price 4-1 SU and 5-0 vs. line last five against SMU! If getting points note Mustangs 3-7 last 10 as road dog. UTEP 2-0 vs. line at Sun Bowl TY and Price not so bad 6-5 as chalk since 2010. UTEP, based on team and series trends.

Saturday, Oct. 6 - Added Games
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

TULANE at LOUISIANA...Wave 13-30-1 vs. line since late in 2008 campaign. Cajuns 12-5 overall against number since LY. ULL, based on team trends.

UL-MONROE at MIDDLE TENNESSEE...Home team has romped as these teams split last two meetings but other trends point to ULM, now 4-0 vs. line TY and 7-1 vs. spread last eight since late 2011. MTSU 3-10 vs. spread last 13 at home since 2010. ULM, based on recent trends

NORTH TEXAS at HOUSTON...UH 1-3 SU and vs. line for Tony Levine TY. Dan McCarney's UNT has covered its last four away from Denton vs. non-Belt foes. UNT, based on recent trends.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
10/05/2012 05:01 PM

Pac-12 Report - Week 6

October 5, 2012

For the second consecutive week in the Pac-12, we have just four scheduled games Saturday, with Arizona State and Colorado resting their bumps and bruises. Southern California hit the road for Rice-Eccles Thursday night, and came away with a 38-28 win at Utah. The Utes pulled off a late backdoor fourth quarter cover, so hopefully you weren't burnt by that. If so, my condolences. Utah has burnt me a couple of times this season, so I shied away from making a selecting in that game, opting for a Sun Belt play instead.

Saturday - Washington at Oregon (ESPN, 10:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Five-Star Game

After Washington's stunning 17-13 upset of Stanford in their last game Sept. 27, the Huskies find themselves in the Top 25. Remember, though, that before the victory over the Cardinal, this is a team which barely slid by San Diego State in their opener, before being clobbered 41-3 on the road at LSU. Sure, they smoked Portland State Sept. 15, but don't put too much credence into a pounding of a FCS team. Now, they get a crack at a heavyweight, and this one could turn ugly. Huskies RB Bishop Sankey came up big against Stanford, rolling for 144 yards and a TD. He has acclimated to a starting role well after Jesse Callier (knee) went down to a torn ACL in the opener. The Ducks can score early and often, but they've been far from impressive against the spread. They are just 1-4 ATS this season, that lone cover coming in a 49-0 pasting of Arizona at home. The other games Oregon had well in hand, but they took their foot off the gas peddle, allowing second half covers. Last season, the Ducks barely covered a 16.5-point number in Seattle, winning 34-17. Washington is 0-5 ATS in their past five road games, and 1-5 ATS in their past six against teams with a winning record. However, the Ducks are just 2-6-2 ATS in their past 10 home games, and 1-3-1 ATS in their past five Pac-12 battles. The big numbers, though, are that the favorite is 10-1-1 ATS in their past 12 meetings in this border war, and the Huskies are 0-7-1 ATS in their past eight meetings with Oregon, and 0-4-1 ATS in their past five trips to Eugene.

Saturday - UCLA at California (Pac-12 Network, 10:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Four-Star Game

The Bruins are 2-0 on the road this season, and the public is ALL OVER them. Cal is 1-4 SU and ATS, winning at home against Southern Utah, and covering at Ohio State Sept. 15. The Bears haven't been terrible, however, hanging with USC in the Coliseum two weeks ago in a 27-9 setback. Cal has shown some spurts of brilliance, but they'll need to contain RB Johnathan Franklin and the UCLA running game if they're to keep the Bruins within their sights. Now, UCLA hasn't won in Berkeley since 1998, and they have been outscored 222-129 during that span. But this is a different UCLA, and a different Cal, right? The Bruins are 4-1 ATS in their past five games, while we mentioned Cal's woes. In this series, however, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, while the Bruins are 2-5 ATS in their past seven trips to Cal. UCLA 'should' be able to tame the Bears, and you should be able to get a number of less than three. If so, the Bruins are well worth the risk. They are the better team, but Cal does have history on its side.

Saturday - Arizona at Stanford (FOX, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Three-Star Game

It's a noon time kick (local time) at Palo Alto, as the Cardinal look to pick themselves off the mat after a stunning upset at Washington last time out. They'll face a Wildcats team that is 0-1 in their only road game this season, getting rolled 49-0 at Oregon two weeks ago. The Wildcats are 2-3 ATS this season, and 1-4 ATS in their past five road games. Meanwhile, the Cardinal are 12-3-1 ATS in their past 16 conference games, and 22-8 ATS in their past 30 games at home. In addition, Stanford is 4-1 ATS in their past five home games against Arizona. It appears that Stanford is the play. The trends on the over/under are a little less clear. The over is 12-5 in Arizona's past 17 conference games, and 9-4 overall. For Stanford, the under is 27-13 in their past 40 games in the month of October. The under is also 4-1 in the past five meetings in this series in Palo Alto, and 6-2 in the past eight meetings overall. The total screams stay away.

Saturday - Washington State at Oregon State (Pac-12 Network, 6:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Two-Star Game

All Oregon State does is win, win, win, no matter what. And they cover, too. Not only are the Beavs 3-0 SU this season, but they are 3-0 ATS. They return to Corvallis to play just their second game of the season at Reser Stadium, and the place should be rocking. Washington State comes to town, and they'll be looking for their first win since Sept. 14 at UNLV. The Cougs lost 51-26 against Oregon last time out, but at least they covered. However, that was their first cover of the year (1-3-1) this season. Washington State is 1-4-1 ATS in their past six games overall and 0-3-1 ATS in their past four road games. Oregon State, meanwhile, is 3-0-1 ATS in their past four games against Pac-12 opponents, and 4-0-1 ATS in their past five games overall. The over has cashed in three straight WaZu games, and is 4-1 in their past five conference games overall. The over is also 7-3 in the past 10 meetings between these sides. Lastly, Washington State is 2-10 ATS in their past 12 meetings with Oregon State, but the road team is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
10/05/2012 05:03 PM

SEC Showdowns

October 5, 2012

On a Saturday filled with intriguing games, we’ve chosen to highlight a pair of SEC showdowns that will go a long way towards determining who makes it to the Georgia Dome on the first weekend of December.

Let’s start in Gainesville, where Florida (4-0 straight up, 3-1 against the spread) will take on LSU at 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS. As of Friday afternoon, most books were listing the Tigers as 2 ½-point favorites with a total of 42. Gamblers can take the Gators on the money line for a plus-120 return (risk $100 to win $120).

Will Muschamp’s team has wins vs. Bowling Green (27-14), at Texas A&M (20-17), at Tennessee (37-20) and vs. Kentucky (38-0). Florida has the benefit of two weeks to prepare following last week’s open date.

We knew Florida was going to have a stout defense this season. The major concern coming into Muschamp’s second year was the offense, particularly the quarterback position. Muschamp made the decision to name sophomore Jeff Driskel as the starter going into the Week 2 game in College Station.

The right choice was made. Driskel has completed 55-of-79 passes (69.6%) for 698 yards with a 4/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He’s also an excellent scrambler, as evidenced by 148 rushing yards and one TD.

Florida senior running back Mike Gillislee is second in the SEC in rushing yards (402). He has run for five touchdowns and is averaging 5.8 yards per carry.

Florida junior linebacker Jelani Jenkins, a three-year starter, is set to return for the first time since breaking his thumb in the first half of the win at Texas A&M. CB Cody Riggs remains ‘out’ with a broken foot.

LSU (5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS) began the season in the top slot of my Power Rankings but it has dropped to No. 3 due to a few lackluster performances. The Tigers have wins vs. North Texas (41-14), vs. Washington (41-3) vs. Idaho (63-14), at Auburn (12-10) and vs. Towson (38-22).

LSU is four-deep at the tailback position, but Kenny Hilliard has emerged as the go-to guy. Hilliard, the nephew of LSU great Dalton Hilliard, has rushed for a team-high 366 yards and six touchdowns on 53 carries. He’s averaging 6.9 YPC.

Zack Mettenberger is completing 65.5 percent of his throws for 1,014 yards with a 6/2 TD-INT ratio. Odell Beckham Jr. has been Mettenberger’s favorite target, hauling in 16 receptions for 286 yards and two TDs.

Florida hasn’t covered the spread as a home underdog since its 32-29 win over FSU as a six-point home ‘dog in 1997. Since then, the Gators are 0-4 ATS when catching points at home.

During Les Miles’s eight-year tenure, LSU has compiled a 12-8-2 spread record in 22 games as a road favorite.

When these teams met last season in Baton Rouge, UF had to go with true freshman Jacoby Brissett as its starting quarterback. Brissett had never before taken a snap at the collegiate level. LSU predictably cruised to a 41-11 win as a 13 ½-point home favorite.

The Tigers are looking for their third straight win over the Gators, who lost a 33-29 decision to LSU as 6 ½-point home favorites at The Swamp in 2010

The ‘under’ is 3-1 overall for UF, 2-0 in its home games. Totals have been an overall wash (2-2) for LSU this year, but the ‘under’ cashed in its lone road assignment at Auburn. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings between these schools.

**Georgia at South Carolina**

Most sports books opened South Carolina as a 2 ½-point favorite for Saturday’s crucial SEC East showdown against Georgia. The total for ‘over/under’ wagers started at 57.

On Monday and early Tuesday, the line bounced around from 2 ½ to 3. By late Tuesday night, many spots had moved the Gamecocks to two-point favorites.

Then on Wednesday, Georgia announced that leading receiver Michael Bennett tore his ACL at Tuesday’s practice and would be out for the rest of the season. Bennett had a team-high 24 receptions for 345 yards and four touchdowns.

Nevertheless, by late Wednesday morning, South Carolina was reduced to a 1 ½-point favorite. The steady decline of the line continued on Thursday when most books moved USC to a one-point ‘chalk.’

The total has also come down as the week has progressed. On Tuesday, a surge of ‘under’ bets prompted betting shops to first adjust to 56 before going down to 55 by early evening. Then on Wednesday, the number dropped to 54 before settling at 53 ½ where it remained as of Friday morning.

South Carolina (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) predictably came out flat last week at Kentucky, falling behind 17-7 at halftime. But the Gamecocks outscored UK 31-0 in the second half and actually covered the number in a 38-17 win as 20-point favorites.

Marcus Lattimore finished with 23 carries for 120 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Connor Shaw completed 15-of-18 passes for 148 yards and two TDs without an interception. Shaw also rushed for 76 yards on 19 totes.

Lattimore is sixth in the SEC in rushing yards (440) and second in rushing touchdowns with eight. Shaw has connected on 50-of-64 passes (78.1%) for 571 yards with a 5/2 TD-INT ratio. He has also rushed for 203 yards, averaging 4.1 YPC.

Georgia (5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS) is coming off a 51-44 win over Tennessee as a 14-point home favorite. Freshman RB Keith Marshall exploded for 164 rushing yards and two TDs on just 10 carries. Todd Gurley rushed 24 times for 130 yards and three TDs.

UGA junior QB Aaron Murray connected on 19-of-25 passes for 278 yards and two TDs. However, Murray threw a pick-six and also coughed up a fumble that the Volunteers recovered at the enemy nine yard line.

For the season, Murray has completed 68.2 percent of his passes for 1,370 yards with a 12/3 TD-INT ratio. Murray won’t have the services of leading receiver Michael Bennett, who was lost for the season when he tore his ACL at Tuesday’s practice. Bennett had a team-high 24 catches for 345 yards and four TDs.

Gurley leads the SEC in rushing yards (536) and rushing TDs (nine), averaging 7.9 YPC. Marshall has rushed for 428 yards and five scores, averaging 9.2 YPC. (Can you say good riddance to Isaiah Crowell?!)

South Carolina owns a 20-13 spread record during Spurrier’s eight-year tenure. As for the Bulldogs, they are 9-7 ATS as road underdogs on Richt’s watch.

The ‘over’ is perfect 5-0 for UGA. South Carolina has seen the ‘over’ go 3-2 overall, 2-1 in its home games.

The ‘under’ has cashed at an incredible 13-2 clip in the last 15 head-to-head meetings between USC and UGA.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Shaw has as many incompletions (four) as TD passes (four) in the last two games.

--Wake Forest lost its best player in last week’s loss to Duke, as junior WR Michael Campanaro sustained a hand injury. He’s expected to miss 3-4 weeks. Campanaro had 73 catches in 2011. He had already made 38 catches for 428 yards and three TDs so far this year. The Demon Deacons are seven-point underdogs Saturday at Maryland.

--Before Southern Cal’s loss to Stanford on Sept. 15, had QB Matt Barkley as the even-money favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. On Monday, the offshore website had WVU’s Geno Smith as the even-money ‘chalk’ to win the Heisman. After a few days of taking action on Smith, Sportsbook has adjusted him to the minus-125 favorite (risk $125 to win $100). The second-shortest odds belong to FSU’s E.J. Manuel (+350).

--Missouri suspended five freshman players on Thursday following a pot bust that resulted in the arrests of three players. Most notably, WR Dorial Green-Beckham was among the players suspended. Several recruiting services ranked ‘DGB’ as the nation’s No. 1 recruit last year. He hasn’t had as much of an impact as expected, though. Green-Beckham has only seven catches for 128 yards and one touchdown.

--TCU quarterback Casey Pachall has been suspended indefinitely following his Wednesday night arrest for suspicion of driving while intoxicated. This is a huge loss for the Horned Frogs, who host Iowa St. on Saturday. Pachall had 10 touchdown passes compared to only one interception so far this year.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
10/05/2012 05:06 PM

Pittsburgh visits Syracuse on Friday night


Kickoff: Friday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Pittsburgh -1½, Total: 57½

A pair of Big East schools bound for the ACC lock horns on Friday night when Pittsburgh visits Syracuse.

The Panthers have won seven straight meetings (5-2 ATS) with the Orange, and were able to force six Syracuse turnovers in last year’s 33-20 win. Pittsburgh was outscored 65-27 in its first two games of 2012, but beat Virginia Tech and Gardner-Webb by a combined 90-27 score in its two most recent games. Tino Sunseri, who threw four touchdowns in his last trip to the Carrier Dome, has tossed 6 TD passes during the two-game win streak. The Orange have lost eight straight games (1-7 ATS) to FBS opponents, but QB Ryan Nassib ranks eighth in the nation with 360 total YPG.

Who will win this final Big East battle between the schools? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Sunseri leads the Big East in passing efficiency (166.80), completing 67.2% of his passes for 1,144 yards, 8 TD and 2 INT. He has also been very accurate in two career starts against the Orange, connecting on 42-of-58 passes (72.4%) for 540 yards, 5 TD and 1 INT. RB Ray Graham was unable to play in last year’s meeting with Syracuse, but had a solid performance in his previous visit to the Carrier Dome, gaining 75 yards and a touchdown on just 14 touches (11 carries, 3 catches). In his past three games in 2012, Graham has racked up 382 yards and four touchdowns. Pittsburgh’s defense has also been a big part of the current win streak, holding Virginia Tech to 59 rushing yards on 26 carries, then limiting Gardner-Webb to 127 total yards and forcing seven turnovers.

Syracuse has been very careless with the football this season, committing nine turnovers in its three defeats, including four miscues in last week’s loss at Minnesota. The Orange running game has also been underwhelming in 2012, gaining just 381 yards on 104 carries (3.7 YPC). Nassib has already thrown for 10 TD this season, but is coming off a subpar game against the Gophers, completing 21-of-31 passes for 228 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT. WR Marcus Sales also had his worst game of the 2012 season against the Gophers, catching just two passes for 32 yards, but extending his scoring streak to four games. Sales started his season with three straight 100-yard efforts. Syracuse’s defense failed to force a turnover last week for the first time in 2012, but held the Gophers to 17 points, 337 total yards and 2.6 yards per carry. Last year, the Panthers (minus Ray Graham) rushed for a paltry 74 yards on 35 carries (2.1 YPC) in the win over the Orange.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
10/05/2012 05:11 PM

Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 6

Friday's games
Pitt-Syracuse are both heading to ACC next year; Panthers won seven in a row against Orange (5-2 vs spread), but its hard to tell lot about them, since two of their four games are vs I-AA teams- they split vs Cincinnati and Va Tech. Since 2006, Panthers are 9-4 as road favorites. Syracuse is 0-3 vs I-A teams, with only win a shaky 28-17 decision vs Stony Brook; Orangemen are 4-14-1 vs spread in last 19 games as home dog, 4-6-1 in Marrone era. Nationwide, conference home dogs are 14-15 against the spread. Both teams have experienced senior quarterbacks.

BYU won 11 of last 12 games vs Utah State but Aggies covered last four series games. Cougars are playing third straight weeknight game- they're 3-2, with losses by combined total of 4 points. BYU is 9-4 in its last 13 games as a home favorite, 2-0 this year. Utah State is 4-1 with only loss 16-14 at Wisconsin, so they're much improved- they outgained Badgers by 74 yards. Aggies are 12-2 as road underdogs under Andersen. BYU's losses are to Boise State (7-6), Utah (24-21); they haven't beaten a good team yet. WAC underdogs are 7-5 vs spread in non-conference games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
10/05/2012 05:13 PM


Friday, October 5

What bettors need to know: Pittsburgh at Syracuse

Pittsburgh at Syracuse (+1.5, O/U 58.5)

Open dates can have opposite effects: They can provide a break for a struggling or banged-up team, or they can slow momentum. Pittsburgh hopes the latter isn’t the case - and if history is any indication, it shouldn’t be - Friday when the Panthers head to Syracuse seeking an eighth straight victory over the Orange. The Panthers, led by first-year coach Paul Chryst, are on a roll, having set a school record with 1,163 yards in two wins leading up to their break. Syracuse, meanwhile, is a team that needed a week off to straighten out some issues after its worst performance of the season. In the most recent meeting, Pittsburgh forced six turnovers in a 33-20 win over the Orange at Heinz Field last season. This will likely be the final Big East meeting for the schools, who are both headed to the ACC in 2013.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Syracuse -1.5, O/U 58.5. This line saw some big movement due to sharp action from where it opened at Pitt -3. The total has also moved from where it opened at 56. Bettors clearly aren't convinced by the fact Pitt is coming off a pair of convincing wins while Cuse is just 1-8 against the spread in its last nine games going back to last season.

ABOUT PITTSBURGH (2-2, 0-1 Big East): The Panthers, who raised some eyebrows with a convincing upset over then-No. 13 Virginia Tech two weeks ago, are ranked 29th in total offense (486.8 yards per game). Senior quarterback Tino Sunseri (1,144 yards, eight touchdowns, two interceptions) passed for 344 yards and two touchdowns and the Panthers rolled up 626 yards in a 55-10 rout of FCS foe Gardner-Webb prior to their week off. Sunseri shares a backfield with talented senior running back Ray Graham (90.5 yards per game) and also throws to two of the best receivers in the conference in Mike Shanahan (21 catches, 368 yards, three touchdowns) and Devin Street (18 catches, 273 yards, two touchdowns). Defensively, the Panthers are ranked 27th in the nation (324.0 yards per game), but are allowing opponents to convert more than 47 percent of third downs (99th out of 120 teams).

ABOUT SYRACUSE (1-3, 0-0): The Orange stumbled into its week off after committing four turnovers in a 17-10 loss to Minnesota - their eight loss in nine games. Syracuse’s normally potent offense was held to 350 yards, more than 100 below its season average. Senior Ryan Nassib, who is sixth in the nation in passing (341.8 yards per game), threw for 228 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Syracuse's struggles have stemmed from the fact that it has been careless with the ball, turning it over 10 times in four games. The Orange is also one of the most penalized teams in the nation (8.75 per game -114th).


Panthers are 8-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record
Orange are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall
Under is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 road games
Under is 8-1 in Orange last 9 games following a bye week


1. Sunseri has averaged 16.9 yards per completion over the last two games with a 69.5 completion percentage (37-of-54) in that span.
2. Syracuse has lost eight straight to FBS opponents. The Orange’s last win came against West Virginia last October.
3. Pittsburgh leads the all-time series, which began in 1916, 34-30-3.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
10/05/2012 05:15 PM

Friday, October 5

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Pittsburgh - 7:00 PM ET Syracuse -2 500
Syracuse - Over 59.5 500

Utah State - 10:15 PM ET Utah State +7 500
Brigham Young - Under 45 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
10/06/2012 10:32 AM

Hurricanes & Fighting Irish Tee It Up In Chicago

There was a time when the college football world stopped whenever Miami-Florida (4-1) and Notre Dame (4-0, No. 11 Don Best Linemakers Poll) got together. Although the series has been on hiatus for almost two decades, emotions can still run high whenever the Hurricanes and Fighting Irish step on to the field.

But after facing off just once – at the Sun Bowl two years ago, when Notre Dame beat Miami 33-17 – since 1990, the regular-season portion of this series resumes on Saturday at the not-so-neutral venue of Chicago’s Soldier Field, in the Fighting Irish’s backyard.

A quick check of the Don Best college football odds screen notes the Irish as solid 14-point favorites at the majority of Las Vegas sports books, with the ‘total’ hovering between 53½ and 54. Kickoff time on Saturday will be 7:30 p.m. (ET) with NBC providing the national TV coverage. As usual, the ever-versatile Tom Hammonds will make the short trip from his Kentucky home to provide the play-by-play.

The boiling point of the Miami-Notre Dame rivalry came in the 1980s, but in fact the Hurricanes and Irish have been rolling around on the gridiron for a lot longer. The series dates to the 1950s before becoming a fixture on the schedule of both schools between 1971-90. The Domers hold a 16-7-1 all-time edge in the series.

That “one” on the tie side was a memorable game in one of the earlier encounters at the end of the 1965 season, the second year for both Miami’s Charlie Tate and Notre Dame's Ara Parseghian and only the third all-time meeting between the schools. The teams engaged in a defensive war for the ages at the old Orange Bowl, with the 'Canes unable to move their offense behind star RB Pete Banaszak, and the Irish limited on attack because QB Bill Zloch couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn with his passes. The final score was 0-0.

Notre Dame brought a 7-2 side and a jazzed-up “O” featuring QB Terry Hanratty into the Orange Bowl two years later for the regular-season finale which, like in 1965, was also a de facto bowl game for the Irish, who in those years (in fact for 44 years) didn’t accept bowl invitations. The ‘67 affair was more lively than the game two years earlier, and was played in front of a record Orange Bowl crowd, which rocked the big stadium when the hometown Hurricanes forged a 16-10 halftime lead on a pair of TDs generated by QB David Olivo.

The Irish, flustered in the first half by Miami's Ted “Mad Stork” Hendricks-led defense, finally surged ahead in the second half and were up 24-16 after Bob Gladieaux’s 10-yard TD run in the fourth quarter, but had to hang on for dear life as Miami cut the deficit to two with three minutes remaining before failing on a 2-point conversion that could have tied the game. The Irish survived, 24-22.

The series took a definite turn in Miami’s direction in the 1980s after a season-ending 37-15 romp in 1981 engineered by 'Cane QB Jim Kelly. Two years later, Miami, behind RS frosh QB Bernie Kosar, rolled to a 20-0 win at the Orange Bowl (Notre Dame’s first shutout loss since 1978) en route to an eventual national title. And in the 1985 renewal at the Orange Bowl, Jimmy Johnson’s 'Canes humiliated the Irish, 58-7, effectively ending the uneventful five-season run of Gerry Faust as Notre Dame’s head coach.

The series became especially nasty thereafter, especially the edgy 1988 renewal at South Bend in which the Irish fans tactlessly referred to as the “Catholics vs. Convicts” game. Johnson’s Miami, getting no breaks from the referees all afternoon, had pulled to within 31-30 against Lou Holtz’ Irish on a Steve Walsh-to-Andre Brown TD pass in the final minute, then decided to go for the win on a 2-point conversion. But DB Pat Terrell knocked down Walsh’s conversion pass and the Irish had ended Miami’s 36-game regular-season win streak. Notre Dame went on to win its last national title while the Hurricanes finished with only that one defeat.

To this day we believe Johnson should have kicked a one-point conversion in the last minute to force a tie and dared to set up a likely bowl-game rematch on a neutral field, in which Miami would have been favored. Instead, Notre Dame only had to beat a less-dangerous West Virginia in the Fiesta Bowl to claim the national crown.

Now, 25 years later, the circumstances are not too dissimilar from the 1988 meeting, with Notre Dame again climbing the polls under a recently-hired coach, Brian Kelly. Miami is not quite as formidable as it was in 1988, although the 'Canes seem to be stabilizing under their second-year coach, Al Golden.

For Notre Dame, it has mostly been winning with defense and star LB Manti Te’o, an early leader for the Butkus Award who has been involved in seven of the 13 forced turnovers (with three picks, two fumble recoveries and two forced fumbles) by the Irish stop unit. Notre Dame ranks third nationally in scoring defense at 8.3 ppg and 15th in total defense at 291.5 ypg while not allowing a rushing TD in four games.

Although ND has faced Michigan QB Denard Robinson and held him and the Wolverines to only six points two weeks ago at South Bend, the Irish face a different challenge in the first true gunslinger QB faced yet in 2012, Miami's Stephen Morris, fresh off a school and ACC record 566 yards passing and five TD passes in last week’s 44-37 thrill win over NC State and its decorated secondary.

Miami has also demonstrated great resilience, rallying from 17 points behind before winning in OT at Georgia Tech two weeks ago and clawing back after squandering a 16-point last week vs. NC State.

The Irish have not demonstrated nearly as much firepower as the 'Canes in the early going, with redshirt sophomore QB Everett Golson still a work in progress and having been pulled twice in favor of junior Tommy Rees, who started games the past two seasons and led the Irish to wins over Purdue and Michigan in September.

Notre Dame has been doing a decent job getting the ball into the hands of playmakers Theo Riddick (leads ND with 242 rush yards as well as 14 receptions) and George Atkinson III (7.7 ypc). But the Golson-Rees combo has tossed only three TD passes in four games, and the Irish are scoring less than 18 ppg in their last three outings.

The yielding 'Cane defense, however, looks to be an inviting target, as Miami allows 225 ypg rushing (ranked 112th nationally) and 33.4 ppg, ranking 98th nationally in that category.

Spread-wise, note that Kelly’s ND is a spotless 4-0 thus far in 2012, but Golden’s teams at Temple and Miami have been known to flourish against the number both on the road (6-2 vs. the line since last season; 22-12 since 2007) and as an underdog (19-10 with the Owls and Miami since 2007, including 4-2 with the 'Canes). The Hurricanes are also ‘over’ 4-0 this season, though the Irish are ‘over’ just once in four games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
10/06/2012 10:35 AM

Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 6

Saturday's games
Top games
Georgia Tech won seven of last nine games vs Clemson in series where dog is 11-4 vs spread, but 0-3 in last three played here; Tech is 4-3 in last seven visits to Death Valley- they scored 30+ points in three of last four meetings, but Jackets got stung last week 49-28 by Middle Tennessee of Sun Belt, allowing 264 rushing yards. In last two games, Tech allowed 91 points, 1,119 TY. Clemson allowed 80 points in last two games, road tilts at Florida State/BC, they also gave up 27 to Ball State, but Tigers have firepower, scoring 36 ppg vs Auburn-FSU-BC, running ball for 320 on the Tigers. ACC home favorites are 3-4 against spread. Clemson is 11-8 as home under Swinney; Tech is 7-4-1 as road dog under Johnson.

Penn State won nine of last 11 games vs Northwestern, winning last five, covering last four; Wildcats covered just one of last five visits to Happy Valley, but they come in 5-0 this year, having run ball for 687 yards in last two games vs I-A opponents (BC/Indiana). Penn State won last three games by combined score of 93-27, after an 0-2 start; they’re 6-14 in last 20 games as home favorite, 2-1 this year. Lions have outscored opponents 76-9 in first half of games this season. Northwestern covered 10 of last 13 tries as a road dog; they won only road game this year 42-41 (-1) at Syracuse. Big Dozen home favorites are 2-3 early in season.

Missouri is having rough first season in SEC, losing first two league games by 21 points each; they had five players involved in minor drug issue this week- they won’t play here, vs Vanderbilt squad that has been off for two weeks since getting bamboozled 48-3 at Georgia. Vandy is 0-3 vs I-A foes, scoring total of only 29 points. Mizzou has beaten Arizona State (24-20), UCF (21-16) but outgained ASU by only 22 yards and was outgained by 49 yards last week in Orlando. Tigers are 6-4 in last ten games as home favorites. Commodores are 2-7 as road underdogs since underrated Bobby Johnson quit Vandy before the ’10 season. SEC home favorites are 5-4 vs spread so far this season.

Virginia Tech won four of last five games vs North Carolina, but only one of five games was decided by more than 7 points, with dogs 4-1 vs spread; Hokies won last two visits here, 26-10 (-3), 21-17 (+3.5). Tar Heels are 6-3 in last nine tries as home favorites, 2-0 this year- they’ve played well in last 10 halves, crushing ECU/Idaho last two weeks, after being down 36-7 at half in Louisville and almost pulling that game out. In its two losses, UNC allowed 640 passing yards. Inexperienced Hokies (lost 8 starters on offense) lost both their road games so far, 35-17 at Pitt, 27-24 to Cincinnati at Redskins’ Stadium in Maryland-- this is first time since ’10 opener that they’re a regular season dog. Tech is 6-4 in last 10 tries as an underdog.

South Carolina beat Georgia last two years (17-6/45-42), after losing nine of previous 12 meetings in this rivalry; Dawgs won five of last seven visits here, with favorites 4-2-1 vs spread and average total, 24.1. Dawgs covered just one of last six games as an underdog, but they’ve been an offensive machine in ’12, scoring 48.2 ppg in 5-0 start, gaining average of 613.3 ypg in last three games. Georgia was tied at half vs Tennessee, down 1 at Mizzou, but outscored those teams 43-24 in second half. Gamecocks won last four games by 21+ points after struggling in opener at Vandy (17-13); they’re 10-6 in last 16 games as home fave (3-0 in ’12). SC plays at LSU/at Florida next two weeks, so brutal schedule for them.

Texas gave up 581 yards in wild 41-36 win in Stillwater last week, a great win for them, but now they host West Virginia squad that gained 808 yards LW against Baylor. QB Smith was 45-51/656 passing- they’ve had 338+ passing yards in all four games this year. Last week might’ve been more of an indictment of Baylor’s joke of a defense, but 45-51 is good on an empty field. I’m now considering New Mexico’s 206 rushing yards vs Texas a red flag for the Longhorns’ defense- they play Oklahoma at Texas State Fair next week; quite a 3-week stretch for them. Over last 10+ years, West Virginia is 13-5 vs spread as a road underdog, Texas is 7-11 in its last 18 games as home favorites. Also needs to be noted that Marshall passed for 413 yards vs WVU and Baylor 582, as Holgorson turns his games into Arena Football-like action.

UCLA is off to 4-1 start under Mora, with wins at Rice (49-24), Colorado (42-14), now they visit Cal’s refurbished stadium where they’ve lost last six visits, with only one of six losses by less than 8 points, but Golden Bears are struggling at 0-4 vs I-A opponents, scoring total of 26 points in last two games. Coach Tedford’s seat is getting hotter (does anyone remember how bad Cal was before he took over?) thanks to home losses vs Nevada/Arizona State; how is someone who coached Aaron Rodgers unable to land better QB recruits? UCLA had 211+ rushing yards in all four wins; Oregon State held them to 72 in their only loss. Over last 4+ years, Bruins are 4-0 as road favorites; since ’05, Cal is 1-6 as a home underdog. Pac-12 home dogs are 4-3 vs spread this season.

Michigan won seven of last nine games vs Purdue, winning three of last five visits here, with four of those five games decided by 6 or less points; favorites are 7-5 vs spread in last 12 series games. 2-2 Wolverines are completing just 54.5% of passes this year; they’ve had two weeks to work since turning ball over six times in 13-6 loss at Notre Dame- they lost other road trip this year, 41-14 to #1 Alabama in Dallas. Purdue scored 54-51 points vs stiffs last two games; they lost 20-17 game at Notre Dame, holding Irish to 52 rushing yards, but losing when better passing QB Rees came off bench late to lead winning drive. Wolverines don’t have anyone who passes like Rees. Since 2007, Michigan is just 2-8-1 vs spread as road favorites. Boilermakers are 5-3-1 as home underdogs under Hope.

Stanford won four of last five games vs Arizona, winning 37-10/42-17 last two years, when Luck was on their side; Luck is in Indy now and Cardinal has struggled on offense, scoring 20-21-13 points in three of their four games (also hammered Duke 50-13)- they’ve completed exactly 50% of passes (51-102) over last three games, which ain’t good. Arizona gave up 38-49-38 points in last three games vs I-A opponents, losing tough 38-35 home games with Oregon State last week; Wildcats are scoring 39 ppg at home, but got waxed 49-0 in their only road game, at Oregon, when they had ball in Ducks’ red zone times but never scored. Since ’08, Stanford is 15-8 as home favorites; since ’09, Arizona is 4-7-1 as road underdogs. Favorites covered last three series games overall, and four of last six played here.

Home side won last five Wake Forest-Maryland games; Deacons lost five of last six visits here, losing 62-14/26-0 in last two tries. Wake was once an automatic play as a road dog, but they’re 5-13 vs spread last 18 times they got points on road, losing 52-0 (+27) at Florida State in only road game this year. Deacons gave up 37-34 points in last two games, to Army/Duke, so their defense isn’t good- they had 362 passing yards in UNC upset, but have total of 534 in three games since. Hard to tell about Maryland yet; holding West Va to 31 points looks good, but they almost lost to Wm & Mary (7-6) and lost 24-21 at home to UConn, Edsall’s old team. Since 2004, Terrapins are 8-17 vs spread as home favorites (2-3 under Edsall). Underdogs are 4-3 vs spread in last seven series games.

Notre Dame is 5-0 and NBC is excited; Irish allowed 26 points in winning last three games vs Big Dozen teams, but this will be stiffer test, on neutral (Chicago, so cooler weather will be foreign to some Miami kids) field vs an explosive offense. Miami can score, but they have an awful defense, allowing 39.3 ppg vs I-A foes-- they’re 4-1, somehow winning at Georgia Tech, in game they led 19-0 before allowing 36 unanswered points to team that struggles throwing the ball. Hurricanes are 5-2 as road dogs under Golden (he’s a very good coach, he won at Temple!!!) but their run defense is putrid, allowing 258 rushing yards/game over last four games—even I-AA Bethune-Cookman had 233. Notre Dame is 8-7-2 vs spread as a favorite under Kelly. With Notre Dame joining in the ACC, guess this replaces Michigan as a big rivalry game for the Irish. Notre Dame (+2.5) beat Miami 33-17 in a bowl game two years ago, in last series meeting.

Counting its bowl game LY, Nebraska has allowed 111 points in losing its last three road games, including 36-30 (-5) at UCLA last month, when Bruins had 344 rushing yards despite starting five freshmen on offense; over last decade, Cornhuskers are 6-13 vs spread when getting points on foreign soil. Ohio State outrushed Nebraska 243-232 in Lincoln LY, but left 34-27 losers, mainly because they completed only 6-18 passes; Buckeyes are 5-0 in first year under Meyer, but underdog covered their last four games. OSU is 3-7 as home favorites since they made Tressel hang up his sweater vest. OSU allowed 532 yards to Cal, then 403 to UAB, but went to East Lansing and won tense 17-16 game, holding Spartans to 303TY. Big Dozen home favorites are 3-2 vs spread early in this season.

LSU is 5-0, but they can’t be happy with last two games, a 12-10 (-20) win at a desperate Auburn squad, then sluggish 36-22 win over I-AA Towson State (was 17-9 at half); this is huge game for transfer QB Mettenberger to establish himself- he’s completed 65.8% of passes, but was just 15-27/169 at Auburn. Until he does better, foes will stack defense against LSU running game, which averaged 4.7 ypa in first three games, but was down to 4.1/4.5 last two weeks. Tigers beat Florida last two years, 33-29/41-11, making them 5-3 in last eight series games; Bayou Bengals outgained Florida 453-213 LY. LSU covered five of last six tries as a road favorite. Over last decade, Florida is 0-3 as an underdog in the Swamp. Gators have had very strong second halves in their two toughest games, wins at Texas A&M/Tennessee.

Other Notes
-- TCU QB Paschall (off-field issues) is out for this week.
-- Navy is 7-1-1 vs spread in its last nine games with Air Force.
-- Michigan State covered 10 of its last 13 games as a road favorite.
-- Northern Illinois covered nine of its last eleven games.

-- Army covered five of its last six home games.
-- Cincinnati covered five of its last six rivalry games with Miami, O.
-- Eastern Michigan covered only five of its last 22 home games.
-- Rutgers covered just once in its last six away games.

-- Western Michigan covered eight of its last 11 as a home favorite.
-- Kansas State covered 12 of its last 17 games overall.
-- Nevada is 25-12 in its last 37 games as a home favorite; Wyoming covered 15 of last 19 as a road underdog.
-- NC State is 9-3-1 in last 13 games as a home underdog.

-- Oregon covered its last eight games against Washington.
-- Oklahoma is 19-8 vs spread in game following a loss.
-- Wisconsin covered nine of last 10 as Big Dozen home favorite.
-- Michigan State covered 10 of its last 13 games against Indiana.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
10/06/2012 10:37 AM


Saturday, October 6

LSU at Florida: What bettors need to know

LSU at Florida (2.5, 42)

When No. 11 Florida hosts No. 3 LSU on Saturday – the ninth straight time both teams are ranked entering the game – points will be at a premium. The Tigers are giving up 12.6 points per game, the Gators 12.8. Florida was off last week while LSU turned in an uninspiring performance, beating FCS foe Towson 38-22 at home. Florida leads the all-time series 30-25-3, but LSU has won the last two meetings, including 41-11 in Baton Rouge last year. This game features first-year starting quarterbacks in Florida's Jeff Driskel and LSU's Zach Mettenberger. Driskel has been far more efficient thus far.

TV: 3:30 p.m., ET, CBS.

LINE: LSU -2.5, O/U 42)

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-80s with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will be light out of the north.

ABOUT LSU (5-0, 1-0 SEC West): The Tigers fumbled five times, losing three, in the win over Towson. They shockingly gave up 188 rushing yards to an FCS school and allowed the junior Mettenberger to be sacked four times. Coaches have been shuffling the offensive line ever since left tackle Chris Faulk went down with a knee injury after the first game. Wide receiver Odell Beckham was a bright spot Saturday, catching five balls for 128 yards and two touchdowns. LSU’s defense continues to get great penetration. The unit has 41 tackles for loss, including 11 sacks. Defensive end Sam Montgomery has 6.5 tackles for loss, while defensive tackle Anthony Johnson and linebacker Kevin Minter have 5.5 apiece.

ABOUT FLORIDA (4-0, 3-0 SEC East): Senior running back Mike Gillislee has run for 402 yards and five touchdowns, both second-best in the SEC. The sophomore Driskel has thrown for four touchdowns and run for another while throwing one interception, posting a 158.0 rating. The already stout defense could get a lift from the return of outside linebacker Jelani Jenkins, who had a pin removed from his fractured right thumb. Florida has not allowed a point in the fourth quarter and has outscored opponents 64-13 after halftime. The Gators are allowing 4.82 yards per pass attempt, which ranks fifth nationally.


* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Road team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.


1. Since 1990, the Gators are 24-10 at home against SEC West teams.

2. LSU won 33-29 in its last visit to The Swamp when the Tigers pulled off a fake field goal in the fourth quarter to extend the game-winning drive.

3. The Gators have gone 1-7 in October the past two seasons, seeing hot starts fade when the schedule gets tougher.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: