omana1717 Posts:56 Followers:3
On 09/13/2012 01:46 PM in NFL

The Packers is a big big bait line this week, and I love the fact that its obvious. Had this line been -7.5 or greater I w

Rutgers vs. South Florida, 09/13/2012 19:30
Rutgers +7½/-110

Chicago vs. Green Bay, 09/13/2012 20:20
Chicago +5/-110

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  • 09/13/2012 01:51 PM

    good luck with bears and Rutgers

  • 09/13/2012 04:42 PM

    First off, NO SUCH THING AS A TRAP. Second, the reason that Vegas era even money on games that are perceived as traps is because there are people who bite on the line, and people who have flawed thinking like you who go the opposite way because of the line. Like you said, if Vegas sets this line at 7+, most people are on GB. But they make it lower to get people thinking its a "trap" so they will bet the opposite side. That's how they use your perception against you (notice how I use perception instead of trap)

stevemcqueen Posts:42 Followers:21
09/13/2012 02:17 PM

So you think It is more advisable to bet your money on "Hunches" than statistical information or trends pointing in a certain direction ?

Admittedly, sometimes trends can be thrown out the door, because each new sporting event is a seperate entity from the previous one. However, if a trend keeps showing up over and over, it is a good idea to look closely at this.

As far as statistics go, they are far more effective in college football and basketball. As a matter of fact they are very effective if you know what to do with them. The NFL and NBA are a different horse when it comes to statistics. I can tell you what a line will be before the Vegas Odds makers release the line based upon statistics.

I used to live by "Gut Feelings" and "Free PIcks" when I first got to Las Vegas over 25 years ago. And my best years based upon this method was maybe 53% winning percentage. Honestly, it was almost always close to 50%. It wasn't until I came across a mathematical formula that Vegas Odds makers use to set the official lines that my career as a professional sports bettor took off. My winning percentage in college football and basketball shot up through the roof. Over 60% most of the time, and this was for entire seasons, not just short periods.

Your assessment of the Packers after game 1 is shared by me and probably a lot of other people. As a matter of fact, I posted saying I didnt like the line because either team could win this game. I personally like the over. Much of what you say is valid, but for me personally, the statistics made it possible for me to do this as a living. And I am very thankful I have had this opportunity.

  • 09/13/2012 02:41 PM

    Boy do we have a treat here tonight. USF and RUTGERS playing great FB and both teams going 2-0 here to start off the season. Neither team has been tested as of yet with who they both played the past few weeks but the edge goes to USF having to play Nevada. USF has some serious issues on Defense and I got Rutgers being able to move the ball on them pretty easily. Setting up long scoring drives and wearing down the defense for that pivotal 4th QTR where most college teams seem to run out of gas. Rutgers defense is pretty good this year, and although they have not played an opp yet of this magnitude I can see that they are going to be just fine without Schiano in their corner. Rutgers own USF for the past 6 years, and I just dont see any reaason not to back them here. Until USF can prove they can stop the run Rutgers with this many points should be able to hang on tonight. USF by 4

yisman Posts:836 Followers:68
09/13/2012 02:56 PM

thread title was cut off

Odd that money has come in on Chicago.

I thought GB -6 was fair

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omana1717 Posts:56 Followers:3
09/13/2012 05:56 PM

good lock

Chicago vs. Green Bay, 09/13/2012 20:20
Under 50½/-110

Detroit vs. Chi White Sox, 09/13/2012 20:10
Chi White Sox +103

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