cnotes Posts:32869 Followers:38
On 09/18/2011 09:03 AM in MLB

Cnotes Sunday's Best Bets MLB-WNBA-CFL !

Rays End Crucial Series With Red Sox

The Tampa Bay Rays and Boston Red Sox end a four-game series Sunday afternoon from Fenway Park in Boston. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. (ET).

The Sox currently own a four-game lead over Tampa Bay for the wildcard spot with only 13 games left in the regular season. Boston still has its eyes set on winning the division from the New York Yankees, who lead the Red Sox by 3.5 games.

The Red Sox have dropped six of their last seven games to the Rays as of the third game of their weekend series Saturday afternoon. Boston has lost 11 of its last 14 games since September 1 and need to stop losing these types of key matchups or they may find their way out of the playoffs in 2011.

Starting for the Rays on Sunday will be the perennial ace of their rotation and former Vanderbilt pitching stand-out David Price. Tampa Bay is 4-6 in Price’s last ten starts (-5.74 units) and the ‘under’ is 6-4 during that period.

Price’s earned run average is 0.62 points higher than it was during his 19-win season in 2010. Price has faced the Red Sox four times this season with a record of 3-1 and a 3.27 ERA.

Pitching for Boston in the finale of this series will be the veteran knuckleball pitcher Tim Wakefield (7-6, 5.13 ERA), who just picked up his 200th victory of his career last Tuesday. Wakefield now has the opportunity to not only pick up a very crucial victory for Boston, but also collect his 201st win in a critical portion of the Red Sox September schedule.

Wakefield has only been able to pick up one victory in his last 9 starts overall (amount of time it took him to win 200th game) and the Red Sox as a team are 1-5 in his last 6 starts. Boston is 10-2 in Wakefield’s last 12 home starts versus Tampa Bay, which makes this a very dangerous situation for the Rays.

The Red Sox are hitting .304 against lefties at home this season, which is exorbitantly better than the .274 average Boston has put up against righties.

Kevin Youkilis (hip), Connor Jackson (bruised right knee and sore left wrist) and Jed Lowrie (sore left shoulder) are currently listed as questionable for the Red Sox going into this key Sunday match up between Price and Wakefield.

The Rays also have a few injuries of their own to deal with for Sunday. Both Sam Fuld (left Wednesday’s game with a wrist injury) and Kyle Farnsworth (tenderness in his right elbow; expected to miss remainder of Boston series) are listed as questionable for Sunday’s showdown in Boston.

The Sunday afternoon forecast shows a mix of sun and clouds in Boston with highs in the upper sixties and a very small chance of rain for this American League East showdown.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32869 Followers:38
09/18/2011 09:09 AM

Cardinals Face Philadelphia Phillies In Prime Time

The St. Louis Cardinals hope to stay hot and keep their late playoff push alive Sunday night when they play the third game of their four-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Sunday’s game will be played at Citizens Bank Park and will be televised nationally on ESPN at 8:05 p.m. (ET). Chris Carpenter and Cole Hamels are set to take the mound.

Philadelphia has already clinched a playoff spot, and look to be on their way to a 100-win season with the best record in baseball. While Philadelphia obviously wants to stay strong heading into the playoffs, St. Louis certainly has more to play for with their season on the line.

St. Louis (82-68) is hoping that their late push isn’t too little too late. They entered the weekend having won eight of their last nine (+8.30 units), and narrowing the gap in the Wild Card race to 3.5 games behind Atlanta and in the NL Central down to 5.5 games behind Milwaukee.

Chris Carpenter (9-9, 3.80 ERA) hasn’t pitched particularly well of late, giving up four or more runs in three of his last six games, with the Cardinals going 2-4 (-5.15 units). That said, St. Louis has won in his last two trips to the hill, including a complete game shutout against Milwaukee on September 7.

The lengthy righty holds a 6-2 record in 10 career starts against Philadelphia despite a modest 4.66 ERA against them. He was sharp in his one turn against them this season, picking up the win after giving up just one run over seven innings with seven strikeouts back on June 23.

Philadelphia (97-52) entered the weekend with the best record in the National League by a wide margin, and even a .500 record down the stretch would be enough to clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Cole Hamels (14-8, 2.71 ERA) had his worst game since returning from a short stint on the DL (shoulder inflammation) on August 29 in his last outing, giving up four earned runs in five innings to the Houston Astros. In the other three games since his return, he had held opponents to three runs or less, so it appears to just be an off-day.

Hamels has pitched well against the Cardinals throughout his career, holding a 3.00 ERA against them over eight career starts. This will be his first start against St. Louis in 2011.

Including Friday night’s win in the series opener, St. Louis has won four of the six games between these two teams this year. The total has trended ‘under’ at 4-2.

Philadelphia has been a solid betting option everywhere this season, including at home where they are 51-23 (+12.95 units). St. Louis has been a profitable road team at 41-34 (+6.85 units).

Ryan Howard is dealing with a sore ankle and may not play in Sunday’s game. Matt Holliday is out indefinitely with a finger injury.

Clear skies are expected Sunday night with light winds of up to 6 mph. Kyle Lohse and Roy Halladay will start in the series finale on Monday.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32869 Followers:38
09/18/2011 09:15 AM

Week 2 Preview: Buccaneers at Vikings



Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Minnesota -3, Total: 41

Tampa had plenty of success on the road a year ago, and they can keep that trend going when they visit Minnesota on Sunday.

The Bucs went 6-2 SU and 7-0-1 ATS away from home last year, and the Vikins seem ripe for a home upset. Minnesota is coming off an ugly opener in San Diego, in which they were outgained 407-187. QB Donovan McNabb, making his Vikings debut, threw for 39 yards. The Vikes dropped back 17 times and had 28 net passing yards. Tampa certainly won’t give up another 300-yard passing day like they did in their opener, which did them in against Detroit. Their major concern will be Vikings RB Adrian Peterson. The Bucs struggled against the run a year ago and allowed 126 rush yards to a Detroit team that lacks a power runner. But even if Peterson has a big day, Tampa has the weapons around QB Josh Freeman to beat a Vikings defense that, among other issues, is breaking in a new defensive line. TAMPA BAY is the pick.

The FoxSheets have a three-star trend that works against the Vikings as well:

Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MINNESOTA) - off a road loss, team that had a losing record last season. (48-17 since 1983, 73.8%, +29.3 units. Rating = 3*).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32869 Followers:38
09/18/2011 09:18 AM

Week 2 Preview: Browns at Colts



Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Cleveland -3, Total: 37

Just how bad did the Colts look in their first meaningful Peyton Manning-less game since 1997? They’re actually getting points when they host Cleveland on Sunday.

The adjustment to life without Manning was rough for Indy in their opener. They were not competitive with the Texans in Houston, outmatched on both sides of the ball. And after falling behind early, they had little chance of a comeback with Kerry Collins under center. Indy had just 236 yards of offense in Houston, even with the Texans sitting back in a prevent shell for most of the second half. The Browns blew a game at home against lowly Cincinnati, but it wasn’t as lopsided as the 10-point deficit would suggest. They were in control until a quick-snap play caught them off-guard and led to a 41-yard touchdown pass. They also allowed a meaningless, long TD run at the end of the game. But Cleveland matches up very well with Indy, especially with their power running game. The Colts’ undersized front seven traditionally struggles against big backs, and the Browns will give them a heavy dose of Peyton Hillis. While it seem instinctually wrong, CLEVELAND is the pick.

The FoxSheets have a three-star trend to back that up:

Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (INDIANAPOLIS) - off a road loss, in September games. (77-36 since 1983, 68.1%, +37.4 units. Rating = 3*).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32869 Followers:38
09/18/2011 12:18 PM

Sunday, September 18

Game Score Status Pick Amount

NY Yankees - 1:07 PM ET Toronto +119 500
Toronto - Over 9.5 500

Milwaukee - 1:10 PM ET Cincinnati +161 500
Cincinnati - Over 9 500

Tampa Bay - 1:35 PM ET Tampa Bay -132 500
Boston - Over 8.5 500

LA Angels - 1:35 PM ET Baltimore +181 500
Baltimore - Over 8.5 500

NY Mets - 1:35 PM ET NY Mets +164 500
Atlanta - Under 8 500

Florida - 1:35 PM ET Washington -127 500
Washington - Over 8.5 500

Chi. White Sox - 2:10 PM ET Kansas City -106 500
Kansas City - Over 8.5 500

Cleveland - 2:10 PM ET Cleveland -135 500
Minnesota - Under 8.5 500

Houston - 2:20 PM ET Chi. Cubs -150 500
Chi. Cubs - Under 8.5 500

San Francisco - 3:10 PM ET San Francisco -155 500
Colorado - Over 9 500

Detroit - 4:05 PM ET Detroit -170 500
Oakland - Under 7 500

Arizona - 4:05 PM ET San Diego -104 500
San Diego - Over 7.5 500

Pittsburgh - 4:10 PM ET Pittsburgh +146 500
LA Dodgers - Over 7.5 500

Texas - 4:10 PM ET Texas +104 500
Seattle - Under 7 500

St. Louis - 8:05 PM ET St. Louis +109 500
Philadelphia - Over 7 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32869 Followers:38
09/18/2011 12:20 PM


Sunday, September 18

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Winnipeg - 1:00 PM ET Montreal -7.5 500

Montreal - Over 52.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32869 Followers:38
09/18/2011 12:24 PM

3:00 PM ETConnecticut at Atlanta

Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds

CONN 663 0-1 (0-0 V) - ( 165.5 OVER )

ATL 664 1-0 (0-0 H) - ( -5.5 ATL )

Stats: Matchup | Preview | Trends | Line Moves My Scores
Opinion: Consensus | Team Experts

5:00 PM ETMinnesota at San Antonio

Teams ROT Record Consensus Odds

MIN 665 1-0 (0-0 V) - ( 149.5 OVER )

SA 666 0-1 (0-0 H) - 3 ( MIN - 3 )

Stats: Matchup | Preview | Trends | Line Moves My Scores

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32869 Followers:38
09/18/2011 12:46 PM

Sunday’s betting tips: Urlacher returns for Brees test

Who’s hot

NFL: The Redskins are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five overall dating back to last season.

NFL: The under is 5-0 in Buffalo’s last five home games.

MLB: The Royals are 6-0 in their last six overall and 4-0 in their last four home games.

MLB: The Giants are 6-0 in their last six overall and 5-1 in their last six road games.

WNBA: Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last five overall and 4-0 ATS in its last four against the Eastern Conference.

Who’s not

NFL: The Browns are 0-5 ATS in their last five overall dating back to last season.

NFL: The Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.

MLB: The Mets are 1-6 in their last seven overall.

MLB: The Twins are 0-6 in their last six overall.

WNBA: The over is 1-5 in San Antonio’s last six home games.

Key stat

419 – Drew Brees’ passing yards in New Orleans’ Week 1 shootout loss to the Packers. Dating back to last season’s playoff game at Seattle, Brees now has two straight 400-yard passing games. Something will have to give, though, against a Chicago defense that is expected to have Brian Urlacher on Sunday. The Bears were the only team that did not allow an offensive touchdown in Week 1 as they manhandled Atlanta 30-12.

Injuries that shouldn’t be overlooked

The Jets will be looking to make a stronger statement at home after just barely making out with a gift-wrapped win over the Cowboys in Week 1. However, they may be without several key players in their attempt to do that on Sunday against Jacksonville. Linebacker David Harris (toe), wideout Santonio Holmes (knee), and safety Eric Smith (ankle) are all listed as questionable for New York. Head coach Rex Ryan said he likes Harris’ chances of playing, but it sounds like Holmes and Smith are 50-50.

Biggest games on the slate

San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots (-7, 53.5)

Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons (1.5, 49.5)

Notable quotable

“The last time I lost a game was Navarro Junior College. What do you want me to say, it feels great? It is not a comfortable feeling for me.”– Carolina Panthers’ quarterback Cam Newton after losing last week at Arizona despite his 422-yard passing performance. Newton may have to get used to the feeling, though, because Carolina is a 10-point underdog against Green Bay on Sunday.

Tips and notes

Justin Verlander can become the first 24-game winner since Bob Welch won 27 games for the Athletics in 1990 when he takes the mound on Sunday at Oakland. Verlander has picked up the win in 11 straight starts and he has not taken a loss since July 15. The righty is coming off seven innings of a shutout ball in a victory over the White Sox on Tuesday.

Reggie Bush saw the field for 75 offensive snaps during Miami’s Week 1 Monday night loss to New England. Don’t expect that to happen on Sunday at Houston—or ever again. “I have to do a little better job of play counts of a few guys during the course of the game,” Dolphins’ head coach Tony Sporano told the South Florida Sun Sentinel. Bush had 11 rushes and nine receptions last week, including one catch for a touchdown. The Texans, meanwhile, held a Peyton Manning-less Indy team to 236 total yards last Sunday.

The Atlanta Dream went into Connecticut on Friday and stole Game 1 of their WNBA Conference Semifinals series. If recent history is any indication, that could be all she wrote for the Sun. In the last 10 meetings between the two teams, the road team has only won twice—and both times that was Atlanta. Connecticut is 0-5 (2-3 ATS) in its last five trips to Atlanta heading into Game 2 on Sunday. Conference semifinal history also isn’t good for the Sun, who are 0-6 ATS in their last six at this stage of the playoffs.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32869 Followers:38
09/18/2011 12:48 PM

Armadillo: Sunday's six-pack

-- Ironic that Pitt/Syracuse bolted the Big East the day after founder of the conference, Dave Gavitt, passed away.

-- In his 24 years as a college football coach, Steve Spurrier has used 23 different starting quarterbacks.

-- Georgia Tech ran ball 50 times for an amazing 604 yards in its 66-24 win over Kansas, which apparently didn't practice defense last week.

-- Arizona Diamondbacks are batting .244 in innings 1-6, .260 from the 7th inning on, which helps explain their success in close games.

-- Out of the 517 entrants in the Hilton Handicapping contest, the best contest in America, 208 have Dallas (-3), 164 have Buffalo (-3) and 148 have the Ravens (-5.5). Those are the most popular picks.

-- Least popular picks (you only pick five teams a week) are the Rams/Seahawks (both 31), Denver (34), Vikings (37).


Armadillo: Sunday's List of 13: Wrapping up a college football Saturday.....

13) I would've paid significant money to hear Jim Boeheim's reaction to the news that Syracuse is moving to the ACC.

12) Ohio State completed four of 18 passes for 35 yards in a putrid 24-6 loss at Miami. Rest of the Big Dozen has to be happy with that news--looks like Wisconsin is far and away the best team in that league.

11) Iowa was down 24-3 with 3:11 left in the 3rd quarter, but rallied for a dramatic 31-27 win over Pitt, which is also moving to the ACC, despite it being a lot closer to the Great Lakes than the Atlantic Coast.

10) Bowling Green scored a TD with 0:03 left to play in the game, but Wyoming blocked the extra point and nipped the Falcons 28-27, making Wyoming 3-0 for the first time since 1996. Good for them.

9) Boston College is horrible, missing a PAT and a 23-yard FG with 0:44 left that would've given them the lead. Losing at home to Duke is kind of stuff that gets coaches fired.

8) Clemson converted 14-18 on third down and ended Auburn's winning streak at 17, coming back from down 14-0 to beat War Eagle 38-24. WR Sammy Watkins caught 10 balls for 155 yards and two TDs.

7) If Mississippi State is serious about being good in football, they can't play Auburn/LSU five days apart, national TV or no national TV. Just isn't fair to either the players or the coaches.

6) Penn State-Temple was kind of like watching two toothless guys in a hot dog eating contest, only for three hours-- Nittany Lions were really fortunate to escape Philly with a 14-10 win. Lou Holtz once fired his son Skip as his offensive coordinator. Maybe Joe Pa should fire his son Jay, the quarterback coach who rarely develops a decent quarterback.

5) Houston Cougars were down 34-7 with 5:11 left in third quarter down at Louisiana Tech, but rallied to win 35-34. With all these changes to who is in what college conference, could we get Louisiana Tech into C-USA and out of the freakin' WAC? Wouldn't that make sense? Why on God's green earth is Tech in the same league as Idaho?

4) Tulane 49, UAB 10. When was the last time the Green Wave won a road game by 30+ points?

3) Last year. Michigan State beat Notre Dame with a fake FG for a TD in overtime; not sure why they thought another fake FG would work this year, but they tried one down 21-10 near halftime and it failed about as miserably as a play can fail. Sometimes its smarter to be conservative.

2) Utah crushed BYU 54-10 in Provo, in the first rivalry meeting between the teams in a non-conference game. I honestly believe that its stupid to be an independent, don't think it develops mental toughness. If I were an advisor to BYU, I'd advise them to sign on with the Big 12. Like now.

1) Oklahoma State-Tulsa game was delayed by cruddy weather; kickoff was around 1:15 ET. Seriously. I'm not kidding. It is 1:30am as I sit and type this, and the Cowboys just ran a kick back for a TD with 7:52 left in the first quarter. Game ended little after 4:30am. OSU wins 59-33.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32869 Followers:38
09/18/2011 12:49 PM


Week 12


Game 297-298: Winnipeg at Montreal (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Winnipeg 112.821; Montreal 117.881
Dunkel Line: Montreal by 5; 50
Vegas Line: Montreal by 8; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Winnipeg (+8); Under

Long Sheet

Week 12

Sunday, September 18


WINNIPEG (7 - 3) at MONTREAL (6 - 4) - 9/18/2011, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WINNIPEG is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
WINNIPEG is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MONTREAL is 4-3 against the spread versus WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
MONTREAL is 6-1 straight up against WINNIPEG over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Winnipeg (7-3) @ Montreal (6-4)-- Dogs are 8-2 against spread this year in Winnipeg games; Bombers got whacked 27-7/45-23 in last two games by Saskatchewan squad that had been 1-7. Winnipeg won three of four road games- they're 3-0 as a road underdog. Alouettes won four of their five home games- they're 3-2 as home favorite, winning home games by 4-23-23-30 points. Under is 7-3 in Winnipeg games, 3-1 on road; over is 7-3 in Montreal games, but only 2-3 at home.


Week 12

Trend Report

1:00 PM
Winnipeg is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Winnipeg is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Montreal
Montreal is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Winnipeg
Montreal is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games



Week 12

Canadian bacon: CFL Week 12 betting preview and picks

Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Montreal Alouettes (-7.5, 52.5)

Injuries are taking their toll on the Blue Bombers, who will have to go on without MLB Joe Lobendahn (knee) for the remainder of the season. Quarterback Buck Pierce (ribs) could miss Sunday’s game, which would bring substitute Alex Brink under center. Young receiver Kito Poblah (shoulder) won’t play either against the Alouettes.

Those injuries aren’t the only concerns for Winnipeg, which just can’t seem to run the ball and has coughed up 10 turnovers in the past two games. Those losses of possession resulted in a 72-30 stomping in the Banjo Bowl - a cold shower for Winnipeg fans who love to brag about “Swaggerville”.

The Alouettes seem back on track after a few bumps, despite the numerous casualties on defense. Although, Seth Williams and Marc-Olivier Brouillette, both off the nine-game injured list, have stepped up nicely.

Pick: Montreal

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: