kalle Posts:5 Followers:0
On 07/25/2012 05:25 PM in General

A few questions about sports handicappers

I'm new to sportsbetting and hope you guys can help me with some questions.

1. Can you recommend some good sports handicappers that are affordable for a rookie? I've checked some sports handicapping monitor sites and the cost for the picks are insane in my opinion. $30 for 1 days picks and $99 for one weeks picks. I need to build up my bankroll and the profit would not even cover the cost of the handicapping service.

I want to avoid free picks. A few years ago I followed free picks from several handicappers and I lost a lot of money, so I turned my back on sports betting. I want to give it a try again but this time using paid service. I don't trust handicappers that use progression in their betting to obtain a high win rate. I want a handicapper that can show profit with flat betting. I fell for John Morrissons Sport betting champ a few years ago. He uses progressive betting and claim to obtain 97% win rate. He has his own way of counting the win rate. The problem with his system is that if you go below this win rate(which you will), you will lose money. I lost big time using his system.
Many handicapping sites just state their win rate. You could still lose money even with high win rate if you often choose favorites with low odds. I think it's important to know how many units they have won.

2. Is it possible for a handicapper to help you increase your bankroll by 100% during 1 season using flat betting? What I mean is for example:
Your bankroll is $100. Let's say 1 unit is $1. Each bet you bet 1 unit. 100% would be 100 units. Maybe to win 100 units during 1 season is difficult? If 1 unit is $2, then 100% would be 50 units. Is it possible for a good sports handicapper to win 50 units during 1 season, and repeat this over and over again? Just so that I know how high I should set my expectations. It would be nice to increase the bankroll by 100% each season. By using compound it will be a lot after 5 years.

3. Some handicap monitor sites show how many units a handicapper has won. But I really don't understand how they count their units.
For example statistics for OnlineSportsWinners:
Past 7 days: 33 wins 13 losses 535 units
Past 30 days: 162 wins 85 losses 1180 units
Can someone please educate me how they can obtain such high units? Do I have the wrong idea about units in question 2? I can see the top cappers in this site also have very high units.

Please feedback is very much appreciated.

btb Posts:2279 Followers:163
07/25/2012 09:19 PM

Have to be honest alot of sites bump up there numbers. We have a expert section here bangthebook.com/cappers all there plays are tracked and you can see what each pick was. If you follow any of them over the long haul you will earn money its also hard on a limited bankroll because of the cost of picks...So while I do encourage people to buy picks my suggestion is to follow some of the cappers here in the forum. For example ltrig has been on fire lately!

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bobalou Posts:5405 Followers:148
07/26/2012 09:39 AM

I honestly started to not reply because I am not sure I'll be helping much BUT.,,, I think paid picks have their place! I won't lie and say I've never done it over the years but I have learned we have just as much valuable posters here at BTB as I'd find paying any one service! Everyone is going to have good and bad days and weeks one just has to keep muddling along!

I have always been told:
1) never bet more than you can afford to lose
2) pace your bets - this isn't a race - we're in it for the long haul!

Our handicapper section as well as our posters have as good a records as you'll find anywhere! I encourage you to check them out - follow your gut instincts and you'll do fine!

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At my age Rolling out of Bed in the morning is easy!
Getting back up off the floor is a different story!

finance Posts:9371 Followers:232
07/26/2012 09:50 AM

It can be a shady business - just like BTB said above these places pump up their records - they release 10 dime, 20 dime, 50 dime, 75 dime plays and one of those categories is bound to go on a hot streak so you see them say they are 20-12 in their last 32 20 dime plays but don't mention that they are 12-20 in their 50 dime plays....LOL

Just like bobalou said you have to pace yourself and try try try not to chase after losses...hardest thing to do IMO....also check out some of the sportsbook bonuses on this site - they are second to none and between those and the contests you can build a pretty decent bankroll whether you pay for any picks or not....

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jimmythegreek Posts:12648 Followers:392
07/26/2012 10:19 AM

Any 'expert' or 'service' can submit a free pick. Truth is it may be a consensus play from one of the more universal sites that feature the pick, and other times it may not be anything strong compared to released plays that are supported by inside quality information from the more dependable well known shops. When I first started in this business my inexperience took over and tried paying for picks on several ocassions, only to realize that everyone, even the experts have their streaks and slumps in the handicapping world. Free picks can be found on service websites and if you call only to hear a recording when for the most part they are trying to sell their top plays.

Being in this business nearly 25 years, once I had more time to do analysis and research I have not changed my approach when it comes to handicapping. There are times you may see a writeup based upon my own knowledge combined with stats and trends to support it. Other times the play may not be as strong and not played for as many units. Of course a service is goign to tell you that they have won 97% of the time, but even if they have what are they using a sample 15 pick run when all of the other tiems they can barely creep above the mendoza line? Where were they hiding then and what made them advertise? Short term success. If you want to be consistant, discipline and money management are the keys in this business without touting free picks and using them to chase during a down week.

If you like action, that's fine. Just be sure to manage your bankroll or your alloted limit. I generally play 3-5% of my bankroll with written up plays and best bets as much as 10-15%. If you are ahead early in the week, try to maintain your pace by betting sensibly and not over your head. A capper or service can claim they are up 20 or 30 units in the last few days and have a special 50 star play, only to lose and throw their profits earned earlier in the week away and then some. Yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery, and today is all that matters. Especially in this business.

I hope the advice I've given here today helps, and I welcome you to the forum. BTB gives its cappers several opportunites to earn free plays, earn points to be used towards expert handicapper plays, and to post your plays on the trackers provided to monitor your progression. We encourage cappers to post their plays, analysis and share ideas with the forum as you will become recognized and respected very quickly in this bash free family oriented atmosphere. Best of luck!

For the latest sports news, capper picks and tracker results, turn to JTG, the leader in BTB information

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finance Posts:9371 Followers:232
07/26/2012 10:55 AM

JTG with the quote of the month!!!

Yesterday is History, Tomorrow is a Mystery.....I LOOOOOVE that!!!

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coverit Posts:996 Followers:3
07/26/2012 11:37 AM

Great advice by those above. Follow it! I'll be more the devil's advocate, so to speak.

Gambling is a losing hobby, long term, for the most part. I do it for the rush, and it makes games like the Browns vs. the Colts more entertaining. If it weren't for gambling, the NFL wouldn't be what it is today, I can tell you that much!

There are very few good cappers that are good for the long haul. Sure, someone gets hot, has a good year, etc. But long term, they normally fall by the wayside. JTGR is one of the better ones I've seen over the years, he's been around a LONG time. I can, but won't, name 10 off the top of my head that were considered great cappers, but then fell off the planet, lost, had horrid years. It's a fickle business.

My advice is to set aside what you can afford to lose, and bet 1-2% of your bankroll. For the most part, keep your bets the same amount. Make it fun now and again and double up on something you LOVE.
There are very few people that make this a living, or can even stick with it long term. Be steadfast with your own rules! Stick to the program.
Betting is fun, and you can make it profitable at times. But, you'll also have bad stretches. Don't get too high, try not to get too low. Most of us remember the bad beats FAR more than the great wins.

Too many cliches in there? Maybe.... :-)

I must be gettin' old... I still think baseball is cool.

  • 07/26/2012 11:39 AM

    No Way man - that's awesome - Post of the year candidate there....

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rynohobo Posts:31 Followers:8
07/26/2012 12:48 PM

Follow these guidelines and you will come out way ahead when using a sports pick company:

1. Make sure they have a documented pick winning percentage (over 100 picks) of 57% or higher. You can find that right in this forum. However that is not the only criteria. But don't waste your time with someone who picks less than 57% even if they have a lot of units. If they have a low winning percentage but a lot of units it simply means they are an all or nothing type of bettor and they are currently on a streak. The streak ALWAYS comes to an end.

2. NEVER pay more than $3 per pick. I know of only two sports pick companies who offer solid sports picks for around $2 per pick. The con men who run most of these sports pick companies almost always try to get you to commit a lot of money up front. Don't do it.

3. Make sure the sports pick company you use gives you good access or communication with them. You should have your own email account with them.

btb Posts:2279 Followers:163
07/26/2012 01:28 PM

I think the biggest key overall to winning is money management. Everyone will have highs and lows when betting, great runs and bad runs...Its the bad runs where you dont change your bet amounts that tap almost every gambler out at one time or another.

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rynohobo Posts:31 Followers:8
07/26/2012 01:32 PM

Money management involving constantly changing your betting amounts is a recipe for failure.