cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
On 07/23/2012 04:52 PM in MLB

Cnotes Monday's MLB Best Bets !

Texas Rangers Start Homestand Against Boston Red Sox

UPDATE (July 23): The Rangers announced Roy Oswalt would not make Monday's start against the Red Sox, and instead will send Scott Feldman to the mound against Felix Doubront.

The Texas Rangers catch a late flight from Los Angeles on Sunday night following their series with the Angels, and return home to begin a big 10-game homestand that gets underway Monday with the first of three against the Boston Red Sox.

Roy Oswalt will kick the series off for Texas and Don Best is projecting the veteran right-hander to be a 140 favorite with the run total at 10½. ESPN will carry the game nationally starting at 8:00 p.m. (ET).

Boston had yet to name its starting hurler for Monday's contest at the time of Saturday's taping, but Pat Williams believes the $1.40 line on Texas to be a solid number despite the uncertainty surrounding who pitches for the Red Sox.

Oswalt will be making his sixth start for the Rangers since signing with the club back in late May. Texas is 4-1 in his previous five assignments, and a perfect 3-0 when he takes the mound in the Lone Star State.

He is carrying a 5.22 ERA, the bulk of that number resulting from one very ugly outing in Chicago against the White Sox on July 3. The White Sox pounded three homers and scored 11 times (9 earned) during Oswalt's 4-2/3 innings that night at US Cellular Field, but he has since bounced back to throw 12 innings in two starts combined while allowing just eight hits and two runs total.

Boston is expected to send left-hander Felix Doubront to the hill for the series opener. The Venezuelan leads all Red Sox pitchers with 10 wins and has posted 10 quality efforts in his 18 starts.

Doubront has made one start against the Rangers to go along with three relief outings in his brief career. Texas has scored nine times (7 earned) in his combined 6-1/3 innings of work.

This 10-game homestand promises to be a tough one for Texas with the White Sox following Boston to town for three this weekend before the Angels come to Arlington for four early next week. Boston is beginning an equally crucial road trip with this 3-game set in Texas preceding a series in the Bronx opposite the Yankees this weekend.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
07/23/2012 04:55 PM

Around the Horn - Monday

July 22, 2012


Milwaukee at Philadelphia - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Wolf (3-6, 5.60 ERA) 44-50 UNDER 8-0 L8 away Game 1's
Halladay (4-5, 3.96 ERA) 42-54 OVER 5-1 L6 home Game 1's

Chicago at Pittsburgh - 7:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Samardzija (6-8, 4.57 ERA) 38-56 3-11 away vs LHP
Bedard (5-10, 4.55 ERA) 54-40 16-4 L20 home off win

Washington at N.Y. Mets - 7:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Zimmermann (7-6, 2.35 ERA) 55-39 8-3 L11 away vs RHP
Young (2-4, 4.11 ERA) 47-48 OVER 9-1 L10 home Game 1's

Atlanta at Miami - 7:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Minor (5-6, 5.69 ERA) 52-43 0-11 on Mondays
Johnson (5-7, 4.35 ERA) 44-51 OVER 12-4 home vs LHP

Cincinnati at Houston - 8:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Latos (7-3, 4.33 ERA) 55-40 UNDER 7-2 L9 away vs LHP
Rodriguez (7-8, 3.75 ERA) 34-62 OVER 9-4 on Mondays

Los Angeles at St. Louis - 8:10 PM EST (Game 1/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Billingsley (4-9, 4.30 ERA) 52-44 2-8 L10 away vs RHP
Kelly (1-2, 2.75 ERA) 50-45 2-6 L8 home Game 1's

Colorado at Arizona - 9:40 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Sanchez (NR) 36-57 4-9 L13 away Game 1's
Kennedy (7-8, 4.33 ERA) 47-48 UNDER 7-0 L7 on Mondays

San Diego at San Francisco - 10:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Richard (7-10, 3.86 ERA) 40-56 OVER 11-4 away Game 1's
Vogelsong (7-4, 2.31 ERA) 53-42 10-4 home vs LHP


Baltimore at Cleveland - 7:05 PM EST (Game 4/4)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Hunter (4-4, 5.71 ERA) 51-44 1-9 on Mondays
Masterson (6-8, 4.29 ERA) 47-48 1-4 Game 4's

Boston at Texas - 8:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Doubront (10-4, 4.24 ERA) 48-48 3-6 L9 away Game 1's
Feldman (3-6, 5.89 ERA) 56-37 7-2 L9 home Game 1's

Minnesota at Chicago - 8:15 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Liriano (3-9, 4.81 ERA) 40-55 5-0 L5 on Mondays
Floyd (7-8, 4.54 ERA) 50-45 OVER 11-4 home Game 1's

Kansas City at Los Angeles - 10:10 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Chen (7-8, 5.57 ERA) 40-54 UNDER 9-3 away vs LHP
Wilson (9-6, 2.82 ERA) 51-44 10-5 home Game 1's

N.Y. Yankees at Seattle - 10:05 PM EST (Game 1/3)
Teams Pitcher Notes Team Record Betcha Didn't Know
Kuroda (9-7, 3.46 ERA) 57-37 8-4 on Mondays
Millwood (3-7, 4.15 ERA) 42-55 5-10 L15 home vs RHP

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
07/23/2012 04:57 PM

Diamond Trends - Monday

July 23, 2012


-- The Rangers are 14-0 since June 20, 2011 at home after a loss and it is the first game of the series as long as they are not on a 4+ game losing streak for a net profit of $1400.


-- The Cubs are 8-0 OU since April 16, 2011 when playing a night game on the road vs a team that has won at least their last three games for a net profit of $800 when playing the over.


-- The Dodgers are 0-11 since August 25, 2008 when Chad Billingsley starts on the road when he is off a start in which their team scored first and lost for a net profit of $1250 when playing against.


-- The Diamondbacks are 11-0 (+3.1 rpg) since 2004 as a 130-plus favorite when their starter went eight-plus innings in his last start and they beat a non-divisional opponent by at least four runs in that start.


-- The Giants are 0-5 since August 08, 2011 when Ryan Vogelsong starts as a 140+ favorite after going at least 6 innings and giving up 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $765 when playing against.

-- The Phillies are 7-0 since April 07, 2011 when Roy Halladay starts as a favorite after facing 25 or fewer hitters for a net profit of $700.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
07/23/2012 04:59 PM

Hot and Not

July 23, 2012

The first week post All-Star break is in the books with a number of teams making runs in improving their division and wild card standings. Here’s a look at what some of the hottest and coldest teams did over the course of last week as the 2012 regular season heads into the month of August.

Oakland A’s (5-1, $535): Manager Bob Melvin’s Athletics are now the talk of the AL West, and for that matter, the rest of the league after just pulling off a four-game home sweep of the New York Yankees. Oakland has long possessed solid pitching staffs, but didn’t have the offense to back it up. That has not been the case in 2012 with Josh Reddick and Yeonis Cespedes launching balls out of the park (101 home runs) on a consistent basis. Oakland’s ability to create havoc on the basepaths (73 steals) has also given this offense more favorable situations to work with.

On The Docket: Oakland will attempt to continue its upward ascension within the AL West – now 5 1/2-games back – on the road this upcoming week with three scheduled to go in Toronto and Baltimore. The A’s are 13-8 vs. the AL East and 22-23 ($655) as visitors.

Detroit Tigers (6-1, $492): It’s been a joy to be a Tigers fan recently! Manager Jim Leyland’s squad clawed itself over the .500 mark right before the All-Star break and returned from it a house on fire having won eight of their 10 overall games played. That stretch of hot play was capped off over the weekend with a dominating home sweep of the Chicago White Sox. In doing so, the Tigers surpassed them in the AL Central standings. This club is finally playing like the one baseball pundits expected to see at the outset of the season. If upper management adds another arm in the starting rotation, look out!

On The Docket: The Tigers will be out to add more cushion to their division lead with three in Cleveland before closing out the week in Toronto against the Blue Jays. Miguel Cabrera and his mates have won five of their L/7 away from Comerica Park, but have dropped five of six to the Tribe.

Baltimore Orioles (5-2, $429): Just when you thought it was safe to write off Manager Buck Showalter’s O’s, they rattle off five straight wins to catapult themselves back into the division and wild card races. With the Yankees having just dropped four in a row, Adam Jones and company now trail New York by just six-games in the AL East and are tied with Oakland for the second wild card slot. Provided the starting pitching can hold up and or add a viable arm to the rotation, this club should fight for a playoff spot the remainder of the season due to its ability to hit the long ball (120 home runs) and top notch bullpen.

On The Docket: The Orioles will look to pull the four-game sweep against the Tribe on Monday before returning home for enormous matchups with the Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland A’s. Baltimore currently sits a game over .500 at home on the year (23-22, $95).

Honorable Mentions: Pittsburgh Pirates (5-1, $411), Arizona Diamondbacks (5-2, $339), Los Angeles Dodgers (4-2, $279), San Diego Padres (5-2, $274), Cincinnati Reds (5-2, $246)


Houston Astros (1-6, -$478): The white flag has officially been raised in Houston! Upper management pulled off a number of trades last week in hopes of bettering the franchise for when they start matching wits with American League opposition down the road. As it is right now, the offense has been stripped of most of its power with SS Jed Lowrie on the DL and Carlos Lee being sent to Miami. An already bad pitching staff (#28 with a 4.63 ERA) could get even worse if there are any Wandy Rodriguez takers over the next week. This squad will be heavily dogged throughout the remainder of the season, so if you plan on backing them in any one spot, make sure the scenario is ripe for the big dog to bark!

On The Docket: Though the Astros have been at their best within the comfy confines of Minute Maid Park (24-21, $701), they face a steep uphill climb with both Cincinnati and Pittsburgh paying visits this upcoming week; Houston’s 13-20 within the division to date.

New York Mets (1-5, -$473): Metropolitan fans are hoping that 2012 is not a mirror image of the last two seasons. New York went on to post productive first halves in both 2010 and 2011 only to falter down the stretch and be irrelevant in the NL East race. The same has occurred in 2012 with the Mets posting a +.500 first half, but manager Terry Collins’s squad has dropped eight of its first nine since the Midsummer Classic and now finds itself 8.5-games out in the division and 5.5-games behind the Braves for the second wild card slot. This club just did itself absolutely no favor at all by just allowing the Dodgers to sweep them in their own backyard.

On The Docket: The Mets will look to pick up the pieces back at home with three against the NL East leading Washington Nationals before heading to the desert on Friday for the first of what could be a daunting 11-game road trip versus the NL West. NY currently sits four-games under .500 as a visitor (21-25, $141).

Chicago White Sox (1-6, -$443): Though the White Sox did most things right over the course of the first-half of the season, not many believed the squad was as good as its record or first place position stated it was. Manager Robin Ventura’s squad has relinquished the top spot in the AL Central for the first time since the end of June, but it’s still well within the playoff picture at 1.5-games out in both the division and wild card races. Still, the schedule is going to prove to be a grind the remainder of the month with only three of their next nine games coming at home (24-22, -$326).

On The Docket: The Palehose will return home to battle the pesky Minnesota Twins for three in their first home series since the All-Star break, but Paul Konerko and his mates will then hit the road again for three in Arlington. Schedule makers better not run into any White Sox fans this off-season!

Dishonorable Mentions: Cleveland Indians (2-5, -$385), Miami Marlins (2-5, -$335), New York Yankees (3-4, -$241), Colorado Rockies (2-4, -$234)

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
07/23/2012 05:02 PM

Oakland A's playing 'Moneyball' again

OAKLAND, Calif. (AP) - Moneyball, take two?

Exactly a decade after the Oakland Athletics inspired the book that became a major motion picture starring Brad Pitt last summer, baseball's most frugal franchise is becoming a must-see attraction again. The A's are a majors-best 14-2 in July and coming off a stunning four-game sweep of the high-priced New York Yankees to move into a tie for the final American League wild card spot.

With a little more than two months to play, general manager Billy Beane's new bunch of no-names and up-and-comers are starting to turn the Oakland Coliseum into the real-life ``Moneyball'' sequel.

``I think Billy's really good at finding eager players to be able to produce,'' third baseman Brandon Inge said. ``Kind of the opposite of high-maintenance players. They're not all caught up in selfish stats. They want to come in and they want to be a part of a winning organization, and that makes the difference in everything. We really don't have any high-dollar guys who are prima donnas. That's probably the key. We're more of a blue-collar team.''

And a low-budget team, too.

Still saddled with the same ballpark issues, Oakland traded away its three best pitchers - All-Stars Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez, and 2009 Rookie of the Year closer Andrew Bailey - last winter in the latest payroll purge. Oakland began the season with a league-low $53 million payroll.

To put that in perspective: the $200 million Yankees have two stars - slugger Alex Rodriguez ($30 million) and ace CC Sabathia ($24.3) million - making more money combined this year than the entire A's roster.

Sweeping the big, bad Bronx Bombers for the first time in a four-game series at the aging Oakland Coliseum sent a clear message across the American League: Wins aren't coming cheap against the A's anymore.

``It definitely feels good to battle and be victorious against the best teams, on paper, in the game,'' said center fielder Coco Crisp, whose two-out RBI single in the 12th inning Sunday capped Oakland's major-league leading 11th walk-off win. ``You can look up and down a lot of lineups like Detroit, or the Angels, the teams with high payrolls. Obviously, they have high payrolls for a reason, because the players on the team deserve it. When we battle against those guys and come out with wins, it's definitely a great feeling.''

When the season began, nobody figured Oakland could contend. Most thought the A's would lose around 90 games. Some guessed 100.

Instead, a new class of youngsters emerged: outfielder Josh Reddick, catcher Derek Norris and pitchers Tommy Milone, Jarrod Parker and Travis Blackley. The arms have carried the club more than anything, even while Oakland's three best remaining starters in the rotation - Brandon McCarthy, Brett Anderson and Dallas Braden - are rehabbing from injuries.

The A's lead the American League with a 3.37 ERA, almost a third of a run better than Tampa Bay and New York, who are bunched in the pack trailing Oakland. Oakland also is on pace to shatter last year's mark of 114 home runs, already having smacked 101 long balls in what is becoming a sudden surge of power at the plate, offsetting a majors-worst .228 batting average.

``It's the same formula when I was here and we were winning,'' said Yankees third baseman Eric Chavez, who played for the A's from 1998-2010.

The comparison to those A's of old might still be premature.

Beane bucked the trend of relying on the common trio of statistics - batting average, home runs and RBIs for hitters; wins, losses and ERA for pitchers - and instead turned to hard numbers over subjective scouting to fuel his team's successful runs in the early 2000s. Every team now uses some level of ``sabermetrics,'' and all with more money than Oakland.

The A's also have only won five straight and 14 of the last 16 games heading into Tuesday's series at Toronto. Those 2002 Athletics chronicled in Michael Lewis' best-selling book won an AL-record 20 consecutive games, with the last coming in September, not late July.

There have still been some thrilling moments, with 10 different players accounting for Oakland's major-league leading 11 wins on a game-ending RBI. And after every one, players toss whipped-cream pies and a sports-drink bath at the hitter in a celebration that has become so routine concession workers behind the dugout already have them prepared in the late innings.

``Those games are hard to win,'' A's manager Bob Melvin said. ``It means you're scrappy and you won't take defeat and you'll battle till the last out.''

The surprising run hasn't washed away Oakland's biggest problem: an aging ballpark the team says drains money and forces the franchise to shed stars for salary relief each offseason.

The latest rebuilding project came as a result of Beane and owner Lew Wolff's insistence that they expected to hear from Commissioner Bud Selig about whether the franchise would be allowed to build a new ballpark some 40 miles south in San Jose, even though the San Francisco Giants own the territorial rights to technology-rich Santa Clara County. More than three years since Selig formed a committee to study the issue, no resolution seems to be coming soon.

No big contracts or proven players, either.

Oakland's only All-Star representative was rookie closer Ryan Cook, who has a 1.70 ERA and 10 saves. Reddick leads the team with 21 home runs and 46 RBIs. The highest-paid player is outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, who signed a $36 million, four-year contract after coming over from Cuba.

Cespedes is batting .299 with 13 home runs and 45 RBIs this season, even after he was sidelined for about a month with a strained muscle in his left hand. While his back-loaded contract makes many wonder how long Oakland will be able to afford him, it's clear how much Cespedes has helped the A's latest ``Moneyball'' movement.

Oakland is 39-24 with Cespedes in the lineup and 12-20 without him.

``If the playoffs started tomorrow,'' Cespedes said in Spanish over the weekend, ``you better be careful against the Oakland A's.''

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
07/23/2012 05:04 PM

Slumping Red Sox begin road trip in Texas


at TEXAS RANGERS (56-38)

First pitch: Monday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas -145, Boston +125, Total: 10½

After getting swept at home by the Blue Jays, the Red Sox begin a six-game road trip against the two best teams in baseball starting Monday night with the first of three at Texas, which begins a 10-game homestand.

Boston knows it will have to pitch much more effectively to combat the powerful offenses of the Rangers and then Yankees, who they’ll play this coming weekend. The Red Sox gave up 28 runs in their three losses to the Blue Jays, capped off by a 15-7 shellacking on Sunday. Texas returns home for the first time since July 8, having gone 4-4 on its West Coast road trip to begin the second half of the season. Boston will hand the ball to left-hander Felix Doubront, who has been the team’s most successful pitcher this season, leading Boston to a 13-5 record in 18 starts, including a 7-1 mark on the road. The Rangers were going to counter with veteran Roy Oswalt, but he is unable to go because of back spasms. Texas now turns to spot starter Scott Feldman who carries a 6.46 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 10 starts this year, a span in which the Rangers are 3-7. Despite a sub-.500 home record, the Red Sox have a strong 23-20 road mark, and the Rangers bats have been quiet in July, scoring just 3.1 runs per game with a .239 batting average. With such a lopsided money line favoring a terrible pitcher, the pick here is underdog BOSTON to win the series opener.

This four-star FoxSheets trend also backs the Red Sox:

Play Against - Home teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (TEXAS) - after a game where they had at least 10 less hits than their opponent, with a hot bullpen whose ERA is under 3.00 the last 10 games. (33-9 since 1997.) (78.6%, +24.9 units. Rating = 4*).

Doubront (10-4, 4.24 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) has had a strong July, going 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in three starts. He held the White Sox to just one run on four hits in six innings his last time out, making the Red Sox 5-1 in his past six starts. Doubront has been much more effective on the road this year, going 5-1 with a 3.09 ERA and 46 strikeouts in 46.2 innings. This includes a 3-1 mark and a 2.45 ERA in his past five starts outside of Fenway Park. He’s started only once against Texas in his career back on July 16, 2010 when he allowed four runs (2 ER) on seven hits in 4.2 innings of an 8-4 loss. He’ll expect even more run support on Monday with the league’s highest-scoring offense (479 runs) facing a subpar starter.

Feldman (3-6, 5.89 ERA, 1.46 WHIP) may never forget his lone career start against Boston on Aug. 12, 2008, when he was the biggest reason his team lost a 19-17 slugfest. Feldman lasted just 2.2 innings that day, giving up 12 runs (6 ER), 10 hits (2 HR) and three walks, which equates to a 20.22 ERA and 4.87 WHIP. After losing six consecutive starts from May 14 to June 14, Feldman has actually won two of his past three starts, despite a 5.29 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in this span. He hasn’t pitched since July 8, when he threw two scoreless innings in relief of a 4-3 win in 13 innings against Minnesota. The one positive for Feldman is that his control has been impeccable since June 1, posting seven times more strikeouts (28) than walks (4) in 31 innings. He has also been extremely hittable in this span, carting a 6.97 ERA and .309 opponents’ BA. But if and when Feldman struggles on Monday, Texas is confident in turning it over to its bullpen. Rangers relievers have a 3.26 ERA and 1.11 WHIP this season, converting 22 of 27 save chances (82%). Texas also has the best home record in baseball at 29-16 (.644), including 14 wins in the past 19 games in Arlington (.737).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
07/23/2012 05:05 PM

Monday's betting tips: Bucs on first 5-game streak of season

Weather to watch

Washington Nationals at New York Mets: There’s a 60 percent chance of rain and a possibility of scattered thunderstorms. Wind will also be blowing out at 9 mph.

Baltimore Orioles at Cleveland Indians: The wind should be blowing out from to right field at 17 mph if the forecast from Sunday is correct.

Boston Red Sox at Texas Rangers: Wind blowing in on Monday at Rangers Ballpark for Game 1 between the Red Sox and Rangers.

Who’s hot?

Detroit Tigers – Les Tigres are 5-0 in their last five games and 12-2 since Independence Day.

Pittsburgh Pirates - Riding their first 5-game win streak of the season.

Who’s not?

Tiger Woods – TW is now 0-13 in the last 13 major tournaments he’s played. The U.S. Open in 2008 was the last major he won, although he’s been the favorite (or at least among the top faves) in those 13 events and he’ll likely be the odds-on favorite to win the PGA Championship when the odds come out on Monday.

Key stat

12-20 – Oakland Athletics record without rookie slugger Yoenis Cespedes in the lineup according to ESPN baseball insider Buster Olney. The A’s are 38-24 with Cespedes on the field.

Game of the day

Dodgers at Cardinals

Injury not to be overlooked

Hanley Ramirez, Miami Marlins: Ramirez hasn’t played since Friday and manager Ozzie Guillen isn’t sure the slugger will be back by next week. Guillen told reporters his third baseman still can’t hold a bat properly because of his banged up wrist. Ramirez isn’t having an amazing season but he takes away a lot of smash to a lineup that’s already missing Giancarlo Stanton.

Notable quotable

"I had it in my hands with four to go. I managed to hit a poor shot on each of the closing four holes. Look, I played so beautifully for most of the week. I shouldn't let this bring me down." – Adam Scott told reporters after squandering a four-shot lead with four holes to play at the Open Championship.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
07/23/2012 05:06 PM

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Some knowledge on early season trends in the NFL.......

NFC South

Home: Won/covered four in row, seven of last eight HOs, with six of seven wins by 11+ points. Four of last five HOs went over total.

Road: Lost last five AOs, scoring average of 8.6 ppg; since ’88, they’re 0-4 as favorite in AOs. Seven of last eight AOs stayed under the total.

Home: 4-13 in HOs, 1-7 in last eight, 4-3 as underdogs in HOs. Over is 3-1-1 in last five, after under was 10-2 in their first 12. 0-9-1 vs spread as favorite in HOs (dogs 13-3-1 vs spread in HOs).

Road: Lost last three AOs, allowing 28-31-28 points; failed to cover last three as dog in AOs, after covering nine of first 10 (9-4 as dog overall in AOs). Last four AOs went over the total.

Home: Won four in row and 11 of last 14 HOs, scoring 28.3 ppg in last four; 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine as favorite in HO. 11 of last 15 HOs stayed under total. Won last five Sunday openers.

Road: 9-5 vs spread in last 14 AOs (2/5 losses Thursday games). Last four AOs went over (average total in last five, 59.4). Since ’88, 2-4 vs spread as road favorite in AOs.

Home: Lost five of last six season openers. Since ’88, 4-6 vs spread a dog in HOs, 7-6-1 as favorite. 4-6 in last ten HOs; over is 3-1-1 in last five, after 12 of previous 15 stayed under.

Road: Won last two AOs, but 3-5 vs spread in last eight, all as underdog. 14 of last 19 AOs stayed under total, but only one of last four.


Armadillo: Monday's List of 13: Random stuff as I head home from vacation.....

13) Pittsburgh Pirates are 34-16 in last 50 games; Andrew McCutchen has hit .399 with 42 RBI in those games. He's a legit MVP candidate.

12) Josh Beckett/Jon Lester have a combined first inning ERA of 8.00. This is bad. Red Sox go to Texas/Bronx this week. They need improvement; they've allowed 78 first-inning runs, most in the majors.

11) Reds went 5-2 this week with Joey Votto on the shelf; their bullpen has allowed only one earned run in their last 23 innings.

10) Ian Desmond is out for a month-plus with a torn oblique; Nationals are playing good ball, but they'll need a healthy Desmond in October.

9) Handicapping quandry Sunday night; over was 18-1 when ump Paul Emmel was behind the plate, but it was an 5:00 local time first pitch, so it makes it harder for hitters, with hadows all over the field. But game ended 7-4 Angels, so over is now 19-1 when Emmel is behind the plate.

8) Nine teams were going for series sweeps Sunday; only the Giants lost.

7) Hanley Ramirez is out because he punched an electric fan and cut his hand, then didn't take the medication and so the hand got infected. What a horrendous season this has been in Miami. The new stadium and the Heat winning the NBA title have deflected some of it, but 2013 figures to be a year where there will be immense pressure on Ozzie Guillen.

6) If the baseball playoffs started Monday morning, the teams would be:
AL: Bronx-Detroit-Texas/Angels and Orioles or A's.
NL: Washington-Cincinnati-San Francisco/Pirates and Braves.

5) Without knowing, I'm suggesting a factor in Penn State's not getting the death penalty in football is that if their program goes down, the Big Dozen will be down to 11 teams, and you can't have a conference championship game if your league only has 11 teams. Thats a cash cow they'd be killing.

Now, they could get the death penalty while I'm flying home today, but everything you read suggests there will be crippling sanctions instead.

4) Players are likely going to be eligible to transfer and be eligible right away, which could set off a frenzy of vultures swooping in to sign up the many talented players the Nittany Lions still have.

3) 18 years between Ernie Els' first win in a major and his win in British Open Sunday; this season has been the year of golfers winning tourneys as they stand on the putting green practicing, having already finished play. It seems like having a late tee time on Sunday has meant disasters for leaders.

2) Last 16 golf majors, 16 different winners.

1) There is no fear factor with regards to the US Olympic basketball team this time around; Argentina actually started playing better once Sunday's game got more physical. Brazil was within six late in their game with the Olympic team last week. Hmmm.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
07/23/2012 05:07 PM


Atlanta at Miami
The Braves look to build on their 9-3 record in their last 12 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Atlanta is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Braves favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+110). Here are all of today's picks.


Game 951-952: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Samardzija) 14.810; Pittsburgh (Bedard) 16.130
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-150); Over

Game 953-954: Milwaukee at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Wolf) 14.964; Philadelphia (Halladay) 14.611
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-210); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+180); Under

Game 955-956: Atlanta at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Minor) 15.391; Miami (Johnson) 13.799
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Miami (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+110); Under

Game 957-958: Washington at NY Mets (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Zimmermann) 14.672; NY Mets (Young) 15.061
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-135); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+115); Over

Game 959-960: Cincinnati at Houston (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Latos) 14.056; Houston (Rodriguez) 14.452
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+140); Under

Game 961-962: LA Dodgers at St. Louis (8:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 16.383; St. Louis (Kelly) 15.844
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+120); Over

Game 963-964: Colorado at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Sanchez) 14.009; Arizona (Kennedy) 16.348
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Arizona (-200); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-200); Under

Game 965-966: San Diego at San Francisco (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Richard) 14.887; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 15.729
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 7
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-170); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-170); Over

Game 967-968: Baltimore at Cleveland (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hunter) 14.904; Cleveland (Masterson) 13.881
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+140); Under

Game 969-970: Boston at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Doubront) 14.431; Texas (Feldman) 15.577
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 11
Vegas Line: Texas (-145); 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-145); Over

Game 971-972: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Liriano) 14.939; White Sox (Floyd) 13.513
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+110); Under

Game 973-974: Kansas City at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Chen) 13.786; LA Angels (Wilson) 15.899
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-200); 8
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-200); Over

Game 975-976: NY Yankees at Seattle (10:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Kuroda) 16.223; Seattle (Millwood) 15.616
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-160); Over

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
07/23/2012 05:08 PM

Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, July 23

Hot pitchers
-- Samardzija is 2-1, 2.37 in his last three starts.
-- Zimmerman is 4-2, 1.38 in his last six starts.
-- Minor is 1-1, 2.91 in his last couple starts.
-- Latos is 3-2, 2.34 in his last five starts.
-- Vogelsong is 7-2, 2.15 in his last nine starts.

-- Doubront is 3-0, 3.24 in his last three starts.
-- Liriano is 4-2, 3.18 in his last six starts. Floyd was 3-1, 1.37 in his last four starts before going on the DL.
-- Kuroda is 5-0, 3.44 in his last five starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Halladay is 2-7, 5.14 in his last nine starts. Wolf is 1-4, 7.56 in his last five.
-- Bedard is 1-5, 7.12 in his last six starts.
-- Young is 1-5, 4.58 in his last six starts.
-- JJohnson is 1-2, 7.56 in three starts this month.
-- WRodriguez is 1-5, 5.25 in his last six starts.
-- Billingsley was 0-5, 6.52 in his last five starts before skipping his last start due to an injury. Kelly is 2-3, 3.60 in his last five starts.
-- JSanchez was 0-5, 10.57 in his last five starts for Kansas City. Kennedy has a 5.46 RA in his last five starts.
-- Richard is 1-2, 4.98 in his last three starts.

-- Hunter has a 6.11 RA in his last six starts. Masterson has a 6.89 RA in his last three outings.
-- Feldman is 2-7, 8.02 in his last nine starts.
-- BChen is 1-3, 10.42 in his last four starts. Wilson is 0-3, 5.40 in his last three outings.
-- Millwood is 0-5, 6.49 in his last five starts.

Hot Teams
-- Braves won 10 of their last 14 games.
-- Pirates won 12 of their last 14 home games.
-- Nationals are 6-4 in their last ten road games.
-- Reds won 11 of their last 13 games.
-- Cardinals won last three games by combined score of 23-1. Dodgers won their last four games, scoring 28 runs.
-- Arizona won its last six home games, scoring 50 runs.
-- Padres won seven of their last nine games. San Francisco won seven of its last nine games.

-- Baltimore won its last five games, allowing ten runs.
-- Mariners won six of their last nine games.

Cold Teams
-- Phillies lost three of their last four games. Brewers lost eight of their last eleven road games.
-- Cubs lost their last three games, scoring one run.
-- Mets lost nine of their last ten games.
-- Marlins lost their last five games, scoring seven runs.
-- Astros lost 19 of their last 21 games.
-- Colorado lost six of its last eight games.

-- Indians lost seven of their last nine games.
-- Red Sox are 5-11 in their last 16 games. Texas lost three of last four.
-- White Sox lost six of their last seven games. Minnesota is 5-9 in its last 14.
-- Royals lost ten of their last twelve games. Angels are 4-6 in their last 10.
-- Bronx Bombers lost last four games, scoring 10 runs.

-- Four of Phillies' last six games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven Pirate games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 9-4-1 in last fourteen Washington games.
-- Under is 11-1-2 in Miami's last fourteen games.
-- Five of last six Houston games went over the total.
-- Seven of last eight St Louis games stayed under the total.
-- Last four Arizona games went over the total.
-- Six of last nine San Diego games went over the total.

-- Under is 8-3-2 in Baltimore's last thirteen games.
-- 13 of last 17 Texas games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 18-8-2 in last 28 White Sox games.
-- Over is 5-2-1 in Angels' last eight games.
-- Under is 18-7 in last twenty-five Seattle games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: