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Milwaukee vs. Cincinnati, 07/20/2012 19:10
Money Line: -118 Cincinnati
MLB FREE PICK: Cincinnati Reds -118
I'm going to back the Reds at home against the Brewers tonight. Milwaukee just took the final two games of a 3-game set at home against the Cardinals. All three games in that series were decided by 1-run. Look for the Brewers to suffer a bit of a letdown heading to the road. They are just 18-24 away from home this season and 6-14 at Cincinnati over the last three seasons.
The Reds come into this series on an absolute tear. While they split their 4-game set at home against the Diamondbacks, they have won 8 of their last 10 overall. The Reds are currently a .5 game ahead of the Pirates in the NL Central, and know they need to take care of business at home vs division opponents.
Adding even more value to this play is the fact that the Reds will send out one of the hottest starters in the game in Homer Bailey. In his last three starts, Bailey is 3-0 with a 1.99 ERA and 1.059 WHIP. Bailey is 0-5 in 10 career starts vs the Brewers. Normally that would be a good sign to take Milwaukee, but not today. Bailey is rolling and you can expect him to be as focused as he has been all season to get his first win against the Brewers.
Cincinnati is 6-1 in their last 7 Friday games, 8-2 in their last 10 games as a favorite, and 5-1 in their last 6 vs. National League Central! BET THE REDS!