cnotes Posts:32918 Followers:38
09/16/2011 07:02 PM

Week 2 Preview: Chargers at Patriots



Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: New England -6.5, Total: 54.5

Two of the AFC’s elite, and two of the NFL’s most explosive offenses, meet Sunday afternoon when San Diego travels to New England for the third time in five seasons.

The Patriots rolled up an absurd 622 yards of offense in their opener, with Tom Brady throwing for a career-high 517. San Diego, meanwhile, held the Vikings to 28 net passing yards in Week 1, and they held Brady to just 159 in their meeting last year. But the Patriots won that game, in large part due to San Diego turnovers and special teams struggles. San Diego outgained them 363-179, but still lost 23-20 at home. And the Chargers are facing special teams problems again. Kicker Nate Kaeding (knee) is out for the year, and they allowed a TD on the season’s opening kickoff. Still, San Diego has the defense to at least hold Brady and Company in check, and the offense to light up a New England pass defense that’s suspect. The pick is SAN DIEGO, and the FoxSheets have a trend that shows the Chargers have had success in shootouts:

SAN DIEGO is 13-3 ATS (81.3%, +9.7 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992. The average score was SAN DIEGO 31.2, OPPONENT 23.6 - (Rating = 1*).

The Chargers outscored Minnesota 17-0 after halftime, led by RB Mike Tolbert’s three touchdowns and Philip Rivers throwing for 335 yards and two scores. Tolbert did suffer a knee injury, but he should be ready to run on Sunday. DE Luis Castillo will not play for a long time after fracturing his tibia, but WR Patrick Crayton (ankle) will likely be able to suit up for Sunday’s matchup. San Diego was 2-6 ATS on the road in 2010.

The Patriots suffered two key injuries to their offensive line in Miami, as C Dan Koppen broke his ankle and is out for at least two months. OT Sebastian Vollmer is questionable for the game with a back injury. Role players DE Jermaine Cunningham (groin), RB Shane Vereen (hamstring) and WR Taylor Price (hamstring) are also questionable to play on Sunday. New England is 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS in the past 10 meetings with the Chargers. The Pats won 21-12 in the AFC Championship game following the 2007 season, but the Bolts got their vengeance with a 30-10 beatdown of New England the following October in San Diego.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32918 Followers:38
09/16/2011 07:04 PM

Week 2 Preview: Eagles at Falcons



Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -2.5, Total: 49

Michael Vick returns to Atlanta as a starting quarterback for the first time when the Falcons host Philadelphia Sunday night.

Even with Vick and the passing game a bit out of sync with drops, the Eagles still ran up 404 yards of offense in St. Louis in Week 1, as they cruised to a 31-13 road win. Atlanta lost 30-12, but it did move the ball in Chicago though. Despite just six offensive points, the Falcons still had 386 yards of offense on the slow track of Soldier Field. And their power running game could pose problems for a suspect group of Philly linebackers. RB Michael Turner had 100 yards on 10 carries against a very good Chicago run defense. But Philly’s all-world secondary should continue to frustrate Falcons QB Matt Ryan, who threw for 319 yards but also turned it over twice and failed to orchestrate a touchdown drive. The Falcons have lost three in a row, SU and ATS, to 2010 playoff teams, getting outscored 95-47 in those games. Sunday night should make it four straight. PHILADELPHIA is the pick. The FoxSheets show a three-star trend that also works against the Falcons:

Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - off a road loss, in September games. (77-36 since 1983, 68.1%, +37.4 units. Rating = 3*).

Vick had 187 yards and two passing touchdowns, and added another 98 yards on the ground with just 10 carries. The Philly defense wasn’t special, allowing 335 yards to a subpar Rams team that saw its top QB (Sam Bradford), RB (Steven Jackson) and WR (Danny Amendola) all leave the game with injuries. And Philly’s defensive unit is a little nicked up heading into Sunday night. LB Akeem Jordan suffered a significant shoulder injury and is doubtful to play. DEs Darryl Tapp (strained pectoral muscle) and Juqua Parker (foot) were both injured in the victory over the Rams, and are both questionable to suit up for Week 2. Second-string QB Vince Young is also questionable with a hamstring injury. The Eagles have won the past four meetings, both SU and ATS, by an average score of 29 to 14. They outgained the Falcons 474 to 293 in last year’s 31-17 rout.

There was not much good to take away from Atlanta’s dud performance in its 30-12 loss in Chicago. The Falcons gained 7.9 yards per carry, but were forced to throw 47 times in a futile comeback attempt. They also allowed Jay Cutler to throw for well over 300 yards and only forced one turnover (when the outcome was no longer in doubt late in the fourth quarter). Three Atlanta linemen are all uncertain to play because of knee injuries. DT Jonathan Babineaux will be out at least a month with a partially torn MCL, while DT Corey Peters and C Todd McClure have less severe knee ailments and are both listed as questionable for Sunday.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32918 Followers:38
09/16/2011 07:06 PM

Week 2 Preview: Rams at Giants



Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -4.5, Total: 44

The Rams and Giants will limp into Monday Night Football when St. Louis visits New York.

Rams QB Sam Bradford (finger) will likely be close to 100 percent, as his injury was termed to be a bruise. However, it is on his throwing hand. And Bradford (or, if he can’t go, A.J. Feeley) will definitely be without slot receiver Danny Amendola (dislocated elbow) and will most certainly be without RB Steven Jackson too. Jackson suffered a strained quadriceps muscle on his first touch of the season, a 47-yard TD run. St. Louis will also be without at least one, if not both of its starting cornerbacks. Ron Bartell (neck) is on injured reserve, and Bradley Fletcher (toe) is questionable at best. If Bradford goes, he could have some success against an injury-plagued Giants secondary that struggled badly in their opener, to the point that they allowed Rex Grossman to torch them for 305 passing yards in Week 1. The Giants normally have the weapons to take advantage of the Rams’ injury issues, but WR Hakeem Nicks (knee) is questionable. It would be a further hit to a Giants receiving corps that lost Steve Smith in free agency. And the Rams defense will be prepared; head coach Steve Spagnuolo was New York’s defensive coordinator in 2007 and ’08. With the Rams lacking any kind of rushing attack to keep the Giants’ fierce pass rush at bay, the pick here is NEW YORK to win and cover.

The FoxSheets provide another reason the back the Giants:

Favorites (N.Y. GIANTS) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight ATS losses. (55-26 since 1983.) (67.9%, +26.4 units. Rating = 2*).

In addition to CB Prince Amukamara (foot) and LB Jonathan Goff (knee), who are out for several months, the Giants are dealing with injuries to two of their major pass-rush threats. DEs Justin Tuck (neck) and Osi Umenyiora (knee) are listed as questionable, but Tuck said that he could have played last week if he was cleared by doctors. Other than Nicks, who was targeted 11 times in the season-opening loss at Washington, New York’s offense is healthy. The RB duo of Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs combined for 73 yards on 19 carries (3.8 YPC) against the Redskins, and will likely have a larger role on Monday night. The Giants are 5-0 ATS (4-1 SU) in the past five meetings with St. Louis.

Although Steven Jackson is the Rams’ best player, backup RB Cadillac Williams filled in admirably in Week 1, running for 91 yards on 19 carries against the Eagles. He also caught five passes for 49 yards out of the backfield. If St. Louis is to win this game, it will have to figure out a way to stop New York’s running game. Last week against Philly, the Rams surrendered 237 rushing yards and 7.6 yards per carry.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32918 Followers:38
09/18/2011 01:35 AM

NFL Update For Sunday's Games

The NFL regular season quickly moves into Week 2 and some players are expected to make their first appearance. Houston Texans running back Arian Foster is the biggest name on the list after suffering from a left hamstring injury during the preseason.

Oddsmakers expected his return and sent out Houston as a 3-point road favorite over the Miami Dolphins. It has not moved from that number the entire week. Bettors did find an advantage in playing the total, moving from 46 to 48.

The biggest straight-bet move occurred in the Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos contest, as rookie quarterback Andy Dalton is now listed as probable to be under center for the second consecutive week on the road.

Denver opened as 6-point home favorites and was immediately bet down two points in the first 24 hours of wagering. The public was unimpressed with the Broncos 23-20 loss to the Oakland Raiders as 3-point home favorites on Monday Night Football. Some books have dropped this number to a field goal.

NFL bettors will find that the schedule features five games that will be played inside a dome, while weather in other parts of the country should present little to no problems over the course of the game.

Miami and Tennessee are the only cities that are expecting any type of precipitation, as a 20 percent chance of thunderstorms is expected in South Beach and Nashville respectively.

Four games are holding steady on the odds board on the key number of 3, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers potentially moving downwards to 2 1/2-point road underdogs in the near future.

It’s an expected move with head coach Raheem Morris tallying a 7-0 ATS mark last year when getting points away from Raymond James Stadium. Both teams are coming in with an 0-1 SU record and Tampa Bay has covered the last four meetings.

Three teams were released as double-digit favorites this week and two remain at that level heading into Sunday. New York has fallen off from being a 10-point home favorite over Jacksonville, while the Pittsburgh Steelers have been bet up from 13 1/2 to 14.

The Green Bay Packers have held steady as the only team favored by double digits on the road, as the defending Super Bowl champions look to move head coach Mike McCarthy to 6-0 SU all-time in road openers.

Total bettors will find that 15 of 16 games have been bet up from its original number in some capacity, with the Sunday Night Football matchup between Atlanta and Philadelphia being the only game that has fallen from its original number.

That particular total has fallen from 50 1/2 to 49 in most spots.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32918 Followers:38
09/18/2011 01:46 AM

Week 2 Line Moves

September 17, 2011

The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book had an early line for Week 2 NFL games prior to the start of Week 1 with the Falcons a 1 ½-point favorite over the visiting Eagles. Once the games start, the Hilton takes the lines off the board and then readjusts later in the evening based on what happened to both teams in their games.

In each case of these two teams, what happened in their first game drastically changed perceptions of them and altered the line considerably. Following the Eagles 31-13 trouncing at St. Louis and the Falcons lackluster performance at Chicago, the Eagles became a 2 ½-point favorite.

The knee-jerk reaction on line movement isn’t just a matter each team rating be adjusted, but also a matter of how the public feels. The sports books know how the public plays and they react to a teams’ performance anticipating what their perception will be. Everyone loved the Eagles last week and they dominated which will carry momentum into the next week at the bet windows.

The massive adjustment wouldn’t have occurred had the Falcons gave any inkling that that they were the same team from last two years, but they didn’t. The public is down on the Falcons and high on the Eagles.

Based on the line movement from when the Hilton re-opened the game on Sunday night, it appears they were 100% correct. They’ve had two-way action on the game throughout the week and never had to go to Eagles -3. The larger bets are on the Falcons with all the small money siding with the Eagles. The line still sits with Eagles a -2 ½-point favorite.

The Saints opened a 7-point favorite in their home game against Chicago. The public loves the Saints, but respected money came in on the Bears dropping it to -6 ½. However, the public overwhelmed that money and it is now back up to -7.

The Lions-Chiefs game is in the same category as the Eagles game where both teams altered opinions of the public after one week of play. Everyone loves the Lions and hates the Chiefs. It’s a hard sell to take Kansas City after watching Buffalo thrash them on their home field. The Lions went from -7 ½-point favorites to -8 ½ and has since dropped back -7 ½ because of sharp money taking value on the Chiefs.

The Jets have dropped from 10 ½-point favorites to -9 against the Jaguars because of respected money. The small money all loves the Jets.

Following the Redskins impressive performance against the Giants last week, they opened as 4 ½-point favorites to the visiting Cardinals. The game has since fallen to -3 ½ with many not believing the Redskins and Rex Grossman can play the same way two straight weeks.

The Ravens had a massive adjustment in their game at Tennessee on the basis of their beat down on Pittsburgh. Before Sunday’s game they were 3 ½-point favorites and when the game re-opened after Sunday’s results, they were -5 ½. The line got as high as -6, but has settled on the dead number of -5 ½.

The Steelers were set to be 13-point favorites before their performance at Baltimore. Despite their poor play, they re-opened at -14.5 against Seattle. The readjustment is based on the Steelers expected to take out their frustration from last week on whoever they play as well as the Seahawks showing in week 1 that they might be the worst offensive team in football. The Steelers are currently -14.

The Chargers kind of showed the world that they are the same team as last season who are capable of losing to anyone on any given day. The Patriots were set to be 5 ½-point favorites for their home match against San Diego, but after the Chargers un-impressive win and Tom Brady throwing for 517 yards on Monday night, the game was adjusted to -6 ½ and then bet up to -7. Large Chargers money took the +7 and it now currently sits at 6 ½.

The Broncos were set as 6-point favorites for their home game against the Bengals, but after Denver couldn’t punch the ball in for scores in Week 1 and Cincinnati playing well against the Browns, the game went to -4 and has since been dropped to -3 ½.

The biggest total adjustment came with the Texans-Dolphins game following Monday night’s game. Who knew the Dolphins could be so prolific with their passing game? The game opened 43, but on Tuesday following the Dolphins performance against the Patriots, it had been adjusted to 46. Since then, it has been bet up as high as 48 ½ until finally getting someone to nibble on the 'under.' The total currently sits at 48.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32918 Followers:38
09/18/2011 01:49 AM

Gridiron Trends - Week 2

September 17, 2011


The Saints are 10-0 ATS (12.4 ppg) since November 25, 2007 following an away loss.


The Steelers are 0-14 ATS (-8.1 ppg) since September 30, 2007 as a favorite when facing a team that has benefited from an average of less than 1.25 turnovers per game season-to-date.


The Ravens are 0-12 (-12.1 ppg) since October 2000 after a divisional game where they held the opponent to 10+ points less than expected.


The Falcons are 12-0 ATS (+13.1 ppg) since December 23rd 2007 when they are off a loss in which they scored fewer points than expected.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32918 Followers:38
09/18/2011 01:55 AM

Play Over - Road teams against the total after a game where they forced no turnovers against opponent after a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers
34-11 over the last 5 seasons. ( 75.6% | 21.9 units )

Play On - Any team vs the money line (MIAMI) first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight losses, marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games
25-14 since 1997. ( 64.1% | 0.0 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | 0.0 units )

Play Under - Road teams vs. the 1rst half total solid team from last season - outscored opponents by 7 or more points/game, in conference games
67-31 since 1997. ( 68.4% | 32.9 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32918 Followers:38
09/18/2011 01:59 AM

NFL Underdogs: Week 2 pointspread predictions

It was the first Christmas Eve of the new millennium. George Bush and Al Gore were fighting over the state of Florida, Tiger Woods was really good at golf and Britney Spears was smoking hot in red leather.

It was also the last time the Detroit Lions were favored by more than a touchdown. The club was led by Charlie Batch and had a chance to make the playoffs for a consecutive season if it took care of business against the Chicago Bears at home in Week 17.

Oddsmakers liked the Lions’ chances. They had the home side as 9-point chalk in a game Detroit would go on to lose outright 23-20.

The Lions finished 9-7 but didn’t make the postseason and they haven’t had a winning season since. I don’t have to remind anyone of the icebergs the team smashed into while Matt Millen was driving the boat. And, really, it’s beyond Millen. The franchise didn't make one good football decision for most of the last decade.

It was just three years ago the Lions completed the reverse perfect season (0-16) and followed that up with a 14-loss campaign the subsequent year.

But things are different now. Football fans in Motor City have taken the paper bags off their heads so they can get a better look at a squad many bettors see as not just a sleeper team, but a legit Super Bowl contender.

We wrote several articles over the summer talking about the tidal wave of Detroit action in the futures market. Sportsbooks were forced to lower the Super Bowl odds on the club from 75-to-1 down to 30-to-1. Did I mention they lost 10 of 16 games last season?

Look, I get it. Detroit is good, or at least much better than what it has been since Microsoft 2000 was released.

But as much as I love the now-roaring Lions, I can’t back them this weekend. The books put out a Week 2 line to combat the swell of public and sharp action on Detroit. Nine points is a lot, even for an elite team (something I don’t think Detroit is yet) to cover at home against a division winner.

Kansas City Chiefs at Detroit Lions (-9)

I see KC’s blowout loss to the Bills kind of like the series finale of Entourage. We shouldn’t be surprised by either suckfests. Both were already on a downward spiral.

The Chiefs offense just doesn’t function as well with head coach Todd Haley calling the shots instead of Charlie Weis. We saw that in the playoff loss to the Ravens. Actually, now that I think about it, opponents are outscoring Kansas City 102-24 over the team’s last three non-preseason games.

I’m not helping my case for backing the Chiefs here, am I?

OK, OK. It’s on principle only that I'm taking the Chiefs. I don’t think Detroit’s good enough to be giving near double digits at home.

Pick: Chiefs +9

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-7)

My first instinct is to call bullshit when someone phones in sick for work. I’ve known too many lazy asses to trust a coworker when he or she reports feeling under the weather.

I can count on one hand how many days I’ve called in sick over the last eight years. I’m sure my bosses would have preferred that I stay at home instead report to the office and infect other staff members.

But if my mom died unexpectedly like Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher’s did, I think I’d have to take an extended leave. The type of bravely Chicago’s defensive captain is demonstrating should motivate the hell out of his teammates.

I underestimated the Bears last week and I won’t do it again here.

Pick: Chicago +7

Philadelphia Eagles at Atlanta Falcons (+2.5)

It’s only the second weekend of the season but you could argue that this game is bigger than Christina Hendricks' bust size. Michael Vick wants a win against his former team almost as much as he wants his creditors to forgive his debt. Almost.

Meanwhile, the Dirty Birds are looking to redeem themselves after last week’s atrocity at Soldier Field. Atlanta might be the one team in the league with enough talent in its passing game to test Philly’s secondary.

Pick: Falcons +2.5


Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 2-1 ATS

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32918 Followers:38
09/18/2011 02:04 AM

Where the action is: NFL Week 2 lines moves

The odds for Week 2 of the NFL season are steady for the most part. But there are a few games in which action is forcing bookmakers to move the numbers. talked to Jay Rood, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, about some of the biggest moves on the Week 2 board:

Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts – Open: Colts +3, Current: +1

Without Peyton Manning and following a disastrous opener versus Houston, oddsmakers have no choice but to set Indianapolis as a home underdog. However, bettors think there’s more fight left in the Colts.

“If Indy was respectable in that opener and kept it close, this would no doubt be a different game,” says Rood.

The majority of straight bets (ATS) are on the Browns, but there is a ton of parlay action tied to the Colts as home underdogs.

Kansas City Chiefs at Detroit Lions – Open: Lions -7, Move: -8.5, Current: -7.5

After an embarrassing loss to the Bills in Week 1, the Chiefs head to the Motor City to face everyone’s betting darling, the Detroit Lions. Rood says that 90 percent of wagers are on Detroit and that his book has no problem taking all those bets at more than a touchdown.

“It’s a little early to declare (Detroit) a Super Bowl contender,” says Rood.

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos – Open: Broncos -6, Current: -3.5

Just two weeks ago, the Bengals were the most-faded team in football. But after a surprise win in Week 1, bettors are shrinking the spread with action on Cincy. Rood says 80 percent of bets are on the Bengals.

“We’ve taken a few sharp bets on the Bengals, but there are a lot of parlays tied to the Broncos,” he says.

San Diego Chargers at New England Patriots – Open: 50.5, Current: 54.5

Two of the top QBs in the NFL equal plenty of offense, right? Bettors seem to think so, driving this number upwards. The Mirage opened this total at 52.5 and went to 53.5 points after action poured in on the over. However, bettors began to buy back the under once the number went to 54.5.

“Everybody on TV is telling us this is going to be a shootout, especially after what Brady did on Monday Night Football,” says Rood. “But Belichick is going to be figuring out his defensive schemes and the Chargers are one of the better defensive teams.”

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32918 Followers:38
09/18/2011 09:16 AM

Week 2 Preview: Buccaneers at Vikings



Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Minnesota -3, Total: 41

Tampa had plenty of success on the road a year ago, and they can keep that trend going when they visit Minnesota on Sunday.

The Bucs went 6-2 SU and 7-0-1 ATS away from home last year, and the Vikins seem ripe for a home upset. Minnesota is coming off an ugly opener in San Diego, in which they were outgained 407-187. QB Donovan McNabb, making his Vikings debut, threw for 39 yards. The Vikes dropped back 17 times and had 28 net passing yards. Tampa certainly won’t give up another 300-yard passing day like they did in their opener, which did them in against Detroit. Their major concern will be Vikings RB Adrian Peterson. The Bucs struggled against the run a year ago and allowed 126 rush yards to a Detroit team that lacks a power runner. But even if Peterson has a big day, Tampa has the weapons around QB Josh Freeman to beat a Vikings defense that, among other issues, is breaking in a new defensive line. TAMPA BAY is the pick.

The FoxSheets have a three-star trend that works against the Vikings as well:

Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (MINNESOTA) - off a road loss, team that had a losing record last season. (48-17 since 1983, 73.8%, +29.3 units. Rating = 3*).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: