cnotes Posts:34892 Followers:38
09/13/2011 07:47 PM

NFL Tech Trends - Week 2

September 13, 2011

Sunday, Sept. 18 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Chicago at New Orleans

Saints bounced back well from defeats LY, covering 3 of 4 in reg. season. But NO only 16-20-1 vs. line since Super Bowl year of '09, and 10-19-1 last 30 on board, and 5-8 last 13 as home chalk. Lovie was 4-1 as road dog LY after 0-5 mark in role previous year. Bears 'under' 9-5-2 away since '09. Bears, based on team trends.

Kansas City at Detroit

Lions now 14-3 vs. line since 2010, and have covered last ten on board since late LY if counting the four preseaosn games this summer. Detroit also 7-1 vs. points at Ford Field LY, and 'over' 7-2-1 last 10 at home as well. Lions and slight to 'over,' based on team and 'totals' trends.

Jacksonville at New York Jets

Jags were 'over' 6-2 away LY and 'over' 11-6 overall since 2010. Jets 'over' 19-6 last 25 since late '09, but only 6-9 as home chalk for Rex Ryan. 'Over,' based on "totals" trends.

Oakland at Buffalo

Raiders alternated spread losses and wins on road throughout 2010; by that trend they're due for an "L" at Orchard Park. Slight to Bills, based on Raiders' spread peculiarities.

Arizona at Washington

Cards dropped 6 of last 7 vs. spread on road LY and are now 2-9 against line last 11 as visitor. Whisenhunt also 'over' 13-5-1 last 19. Interestingly, Skins were never a home favorite in 2010, afer 4-10 mark in role '07-09. Skins and slight to "over," based on recent Cards marks.

Tennessee at Baltimore

Ravens 4-1 as road chalk LY. Titans 'over' 11-7-1 last 19 at home. Slight to Ravens and 'over,' based on team and 'totals' trends.

Seattle at Pittsburgh

Pete Carroll only 2-8 vs. line on road since LY, and Seattle now 3-15 vs. spread away since '09 and 3-16 last 18 since late '08. Carroll also 'over' 8-2 away since LY and Seattle 'over' 15-5 last 19 away. Steel 'over' 5-5 at home LY and 'over' 55-30 last 85 at Heinz Field. Steel also 6-2 as home chalk LY after 2-5 mark in '09, and Mike Tomlin covered all four games after a SU loss last season. 'Over' and Steelers, based on 'totals' and team trends.

Green Bay at Carolina

Pack 15-7 vs. line last 22 away. Pack also 8-5 last 13 as road chalk. Carolina 4-12 vs. mark at home LY and "under" 14-4 last 18 at Charlotte. Pack and 'under,' based on team and 'totals' trends.

Tampa Bay at Minnesota

Bucs completing the rounds vs. old NFC Central foes. Vikes 6-10-1 vs. line since 2010, while Bucs were 7-1 vs. spread away LY, now 9-1 last 10 vs. line away. Bucs, based on team trends.

Cleveland at Indianapolis

Hard to gauge Colts in respect to past marks now without Manning. With Manning, Colts were 'under' 6-2 last 8 as host LY (Indy was a great 'over' team on road, 7-1 LY). Browns have now dropped 8 of last 9 vs. spread since 2010. Browns 'under' 10-7 last 17 away. Slight to 'under' and Colts, based on 'totals' and team trends.

Sunday, Sept. 18 - All games to start at 4:15 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

Dallas at San Fran

Only 9-15 vs. number its last 23 away and 3-9 last 12 as road chalk. Dallas also 'over' 14-3 since 2010, 49ers 'over' 6-2 at Stick since LY. SF 12-5-2 vs. line last 19 as host. "Over" and 49ers, based on "totals" and team trends.

Houston at Miami

Kubiak 'over' 13-6 last 18 since late '09. Sparano 'over' 13-4 st home since '09. Miami also only 5-17 vs. spread last 22 at home after Monday loss to Patriots. Texans and 'over,' based on team and 'totals' trends.

San Diego at New England

Norv 0-3-1 vs. line in first road game of season as SD coach, and only 4-8-1 vs. line in first 3 games of season since 2007. Norv "over" 13-6-1 last 20 away, Belichick 'over' 16-3 last 19 since late '09, although these two went 'under' LY at Qualcomm. 'Over' and Patriots, based on 'totals' and Norv trends.

Cincy at Denver

Marvin Lewis 4-9 vs. line last 12 away, although Broncs just 4-10 vs. points last 14 at home after Monday loss to Oakland. Denver also 'over' 17-5 since late '09. 'Over,' based on Broncos 'totals' trends.

Sunday, Sept. 18 - NBC, 8:25 p.m. ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
Philly at Atlanta

Bird battle in the Georgia Dome. Even after loss in Chicago opener, Falcs have covered 7 of last 9 in reg. season LY but will be looking to revenge 31-17 loss at Philly last Oct. 17. Philly 'over' 8-2 last 10 away, Falcs 'over' 5-3-1 at home LY. 'Over,' based on 'totals' trends.

Monday, Sept. 19 - ESPN, 8:30 ET
Matchup Skinny Tech Edge
St.Louis at New York

Spagnuolo vs. former employer. G-Men just 4-10 last 14 as home chalk, also 'over' 20-13 at home since '07. Rams and slight to 'over,' based on team and 'totals' trends

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34892 Followers:38
09/14/2011 01:46 AM

NFL Spread Sheet: Over bettors win big in Week 1

The over went 12-3-1 as Week 1 surprisingly turned into a scoring bonanza.

The shortened offseason? Didn’t hurt offenses, as many had predicted.

Kicking off from the 35? That did lead to more touchbacks, 49 percent through Sunday’s games. But three were returned for touchdowns, tying a Week 1 record.

“The defenses and special teams just looked like a mess,” Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook manager Jay Kornegay told “This time of year, with a limited number of reps, usually defenses have the advantage. It certainly surprised us to see that kind of success on kickoffs and offense.”

Randall Cobb, Percy Harvin and Ted Ginn Jr. scored on returns of 108, 103 and 102 yards respectively. Today’s return men “are lightning bolts back there,” Kornegay said. “Even though they’re five yards deep, they’re taking it out.”

Ginn, Darren Sproles, Eric Decker and Patrick Peterson returned punts for touchdowns, too. And the Jets returned a blocked punt for a score. Nothing inflates scores faster than special teams touchdowns.

And how about those passing games? Everyone knows the NFL becomes more heavily a passing league each year, but this was ridiculous. Fourteen quarterbacks threw for at least 300 yards in Week 1; the last three opening weekends produced just 11 300-yard games.

And there were three 400-yard performances, two coming in New England’s 38-24 win in Miami. Thus we have a list of passing leaders no one could have projected: Tom Brady (517), Cam Newton (422), Drew Brees (419) and Chad Henne (416).


Do you realize Detroit has covered 10 straight, including preseason? The Lions are 9-1 SU in those games after Sunday’s convincing 27-20 win in Tampa Bay. It wasn’t just that Matthew Stafford was healthy and Calvin Johnson proved uncoverable, as usual. Detroit outrushed the Bucs 126 to 56.

Now the Lions host reeling Kansas City, which lost Pro Bowl safety Eric Berry for the year in an embarrassing 41-7 home loss to Buffalo.

The Lions went 7-1 ATS at Ford Field last season. The three times they were favored at home, the Lions covered by an average of 16 points.

Even with Detroit laying 8.5 against a division winner from a year ago, look for the public to be all over the Lions again.


With Green Bay’s 42-34 escape against New Orleans, Super Bowl champs improved to 8-1-2 ATS in subsequent openers.

Pittsburgh’s 35-7 loss in Baltimore dropped Super Bowl losers to 0-12 ATS in their following openers. The Steelers are still laying two touchdowns this week against Seattle.

After each of their four losses last year, the Steelers bounced back to cover, and did so by an average of 9.5 points.

MIXED bag for new coaches

The NFL has eight new head coaches, but only five are true rookies. Denver’s John Fox was a longtime boss in Carolina, and Dallas’ Jason Garrett and Minnesota’s Leslie Frazier served as interim head coaches last year.

The five real newcomers – Cleveland’s Pat Shurmur, Carolina’s Ron Rivera, Oakland’s Hue Jackson, Tennessee’s Mike Munchak and San Francisco’s Jim Harbaugh -- went 2-3 SU and ATS in Week 1.

If you include the other three, new coaches went 2-6 SU and 4-4 ATS.

Most improved D?

We don’t want to make too much of one game, especially one against the Manning-less Colts, but Houston’s defense could be the most improved. New coordinator Wade Phillips moved Mario Williams to OLB in the 3-4, and Williams responded with two sacks and three QB hurries.

Williams also forced Kerry Collins into an intentional grounding call. ILB Brian Cushing added a team-high seven tackles.

The 34-7 Texans win stayed under the total of 44 – a rarity amid the Week 1 scoring barrage.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34892 Followers:38
09/14/2011 01:50 AM

Top 5 NFL Trends

PHI ATL Over is 7-0-2 in ATL last 9 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.

DAL SF Over is 8-0 in DAL last 8 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

JAC NYJ Over is 7-0 in JAC last 7 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

KC DET DET are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.

SD NE Over is 7-0 in NE last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34892 Followers:38
09/14/2011 06:43 PM

New York Jets A Stiff Test For Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars have covered the spread the last six meetings with the Jets.
This Sunday in Week 2 action of the National Football League, the Jacksonville Jaguars will travel to MetLife Stadium to battle the New York Jets. It will be on the early game slate with a start time of 1:00 p.m. (ET).

The Jets are a big 9-point favorite currently on the Don Best odds screen, with the total set at 39½.

Life is OK in Jacksonville, for now. Following the release of quarterback David Garrard, Luke McCown looked solid in his first start with the Jaguars. The team picked up a division win against the Tennessee Titans in a game that should not have been as close as it was, shown by Tennessee’s 80-yard fluke touchdown.

Now the Jags face a much tougher test, and on the road at that.

The Jets are a team that has been to the AFC Championship for two years in a row, a game the Jaguars have not experienced since 1999. New York is also coming off of a more impressive victory, scoring 17 points in the fourth quarter to come from behind and beat the Dallas Cowboys in prime time last Sunday, 27-24.

When mentioning the Jets, the first thing that must come to mind is Rex Ryan and their defense. They may surrender some yards, as the Cowboys threw for 326 in the air, but the name of their game is pressure. Not to mention that they have the best cornerback in the league, Darrelle Revis, who came up with what turned out to be a game-winning interception in the final minute last week.

The best bet for the Jaguars to lessen that pressure is their best bet every week, running the ball. That does not only include Maurice Jones-Drew, either.

Backup RB Deji Karim, who took over that spot when Rashad Jennings was placed on IR, is a little known player with a lot of burst. He got a lot of action in Week 1 and may see the same this week as head coach Jack Del Rio has a “pitch count” for MoJo to keep things easy on his knee.

That is much to Jones-Drew’s dismay, but in a good way. He is a fierce competitor.

Speaking of which, the much criticized Mark Sanchez helped New York get another victory even while they could not run the ball. LaDainian Tomlinson looks great, however, as the coaching staff did a great job of keeping him fresh and utilizing him in the passing game.

Free agents look good so far for each team. Wide receiver Plaxico Burress caught a touchdown in the fourth quarter last week and is a height mismatch for any defensive back.

For the Jags, defensive end Matt Roth recorded a sack on the first play of the game. DBs Drew Coleman and Dwight Lowery came up big with a sack and interception, respectively. Keep in mind, those are two players who were New York Jets just recently. Del Rio will certainly pick their brains on anything he can get on facing Sanchez and New York’s ‘D.’

The Jags are a little banged up heading into Week 2. Pro Bowl tight end Marcedes Lewis, cornerback Derek Cox and defensive end Aaron Kampman are either questionable or doubtful for Sunday and did not practice Wednesday.

New York appears fairly healthy but Sanchez did undergo a concussion test after Sunday’s game which he did pass.

Last time these squads matched up, the Jags won on the road 24-22 in 2009. They won on a field goal following Jones-Drew kneeling at the 1-yard line, giving up a touchdown but allowing the winning kick to go off as time expired.

Jacksonville is 6-0 against the spread in their last six meetings with the Jets but 0-4 ATS in recent Week 2 games.

While emotions will not be as high a week removed from September 11th, Del Rio and Ryan are old friends and were members of the Baltimore Ravens’ staff together. Expect their teams to give everything they’ve got.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34892 Followers:38
09/14/2011 06:44 PM

Post A TiSeattle Seahawks Big Dogs At Pittsburgh Steelers

The Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1) are likely to earn the distinction of being the highest priced favorite in the early going of the 2011 NFL regular season when hosting the Seattle Seahawks (0-1) Sunday.

Kickoff from Heinz Field is scheduled for 1:00 p.m. (ET) and will be televised on FOX.

The betting odds definitely look much different heading into Week 2 than the previous round, as three teams were released as double-digit favorites. Pittsburgh received top billing in being tabbed a 13 ½-point favorite. The Steelers have actually moved up a half-point or more in early wagering, while the total has risen from 38 to 40 ½.

Casual fans certainly expect the defending AFC champions to bounce back after a humiliating 35-7 loss to the Baltimore Ravens as 1-point road underdogs. The team was outgained by 73 yards and will begin the second week of the season with a minus-7 turnover differential.

It was surprising in many aspects, as the vaunted Steel Curtain defense allowed 170 rushing yards in the opener, which is exponentially higher than the 62.8 yards per game it surrendered in 2010.

Pittsburgh’s defense will remain confident due to blanking Seattle in the last regular-season meeting on Oct. 7, 2007, allowing just 144 yards of total offense in a 21-0 win as 5½-point home favorites.

Offensively, the Steelers have been forced to make a move on the offensive line, as starting right tackle Willie Colon tore his right triceps. It’s a devastating blow to a unit that showed little against Baltimore. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was under considerable pressure against the Ravens all afternoon, throwing three interceptions and losing two fumbles while being sacked.

He will not see that type of chaos in facing a Seahawks’ defense that failed to register a sack against the 49ers. Bettors will find that the Steelers are 11-4 ATS after suffering a straight-up loss of more than 14 points, while the ‘over’ is 8-3 in games following a setback.

Seattle continues to struggle away from CenturyLink Field and will enter a hostile environment with a 6-21 ATS mark as a road underdog. The Seahawks dropped a 33-17 contest to the San Francisco 49ers as 6-point road underdogs in Week 1, as a two-point game quickly changed due to allowing two special teams touchdowns in the fourth quarter.

Tarvaris Jackson completed 21-of-37 passes for two touchdowns and an interception for coach Pete Carroll after he won the starting quarterback job over backup Charlie Whitehurst during the preseason.

Seattle doesn’t possess the type of running game that can threaten Pittsburgh’s defense, gaining just 64 yards on 22 carries in San Francisco. Starting running back Marshawn Lynch needs to step up his performance in a big way if the team wants to avoid an 0-2 start to the season. The former Cal Bear hasn’t reached the century mark on the ground in a regular-season game in nearly three years.

The Seahawks have failed to cover in their last four games in Week 2, while the ‘over’ is 9-1 when playing after a SU loss of more than 14 points.

Weather forecasts are calling for partly cloudy skies and a game-time temperature in the upper-60s.
p Here...

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34892 Followers:38
09/14/2011 06:46 PM

San Diego Chargers Visit Nemesis Patriots

The Chargers are 18-6-3 in their last 27 games as road underdogs.
The San Diego Chargers meet their recent nemesis on Sunday afternoon when they travel 3,000 miles to meet quarterback Tom Brady and the New England Patriots.

This will be the featured game on CBS at 4:15 p.m. (ET) from Gillette Stadium. New England is a 7-point favorite on the Don Best odds screen after opening at 6 ½-points. Fireworks are expected with a 53 ½-point total, the highest of the week. The ‘over’ went a surprising 12-3-1 in Week 1.

The Chargers (1-0 straightup, 0-1 against the spread) had a gutty opening week win over Minnesota, 24-17 after trailing 17-7 at halftime. That was a game they probably would have lost in prior years, especially in September when they went 6-8 SU from 2007-2010.

San Diego did fail to ‘cover’ as 9-point favorites, making it 2-5 ATS in its last seven September contests.

Quarterback Philip Rivers had two interceptions inside the Minnesota 25-yard line, but excelled otherwise at 33-of-48 passing for 335 yards. The total yards advantage overall was 407-187, making Donovan McNabb (39 passing yards) almost wish he was back in Washington playing for Mike Shanahan.

Rivers is licking his chops thinking about a Patriots’ secondary that just allowed 416 passing yards to the very mediocre Chad Henne of Miami. Rivers hit eight different receivers last week and should get back slot receiver Patrick Crayton (ankle).

The Chargers’ running game struggled with 77 yards on 27 carries (2.9 average). Mike Tolbert injured his knee, but is listed as probable and will continue to split carries with second-year player Ryan Mathews. Tolbert scored all three Chargers TDs, two through the air.

Coach Norv Turner needs to keep the offense balanced and not get into shootout with Brady and company. His team was just 2-7 SU (1-7-1 ATS) last year when Rivers threw 30 or more passes, 7-0 SU and ATS when under that figure.

Turner will have to rely on newly signed kicker Nick Novak, with two-time Pro Bowler Nate Kaeding (knee) injured last week and out for the year. The 30-year-old Novak hasn’t been in the NFL since 2008.

New England (1-0 SU and ATS) has its home opener, but one less day of preparation after a 38-24 win as 7-point favorites at Miami. Brady set an MNF record with 517 passing yards, but the running game with BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead was also respectable with 106 yards.

The 62 combined points scored went way ‘over’ the 46 ½-point total. The ‘over’ is 17-4 in New England’s last 21 games, scoring 32.4 PPG last year and allowing 19.6.

Brady used a no-huddle offense for large stretches, which wore down the Dolphins in their own warm climate. Expect it to be used a lot this week, with the ball also handed off to the backs from that formation.

Running the ball also could be effective with San Diego defensive end Luis Castillo (tibia) out around 12 weeks. The West Coasters surrendered 159 yards on the ground to Minny, 98 to superstar Adrian Peterson.

New England's defense is looking for improvement with new several new starters still adjusting. The defensive line should come along quickly with Albert Haynesworth, Shaun Ellis and Andre Carter. The secondary could still have problems with safety Josh Barrett a late replacement for the released Brandon Meriweather.

The Patriots were 8-0 SU (4-3-1 ATS) at home in the regular season last year, losing to the Jets there in the playoffs. They’re 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite between 3 ½-10 points.

The Chargers were 3-5 SU and 2-5-1 ATS on the road last year. However, they did finish 3-1 SU and 2-1-1 ATS away. They’re also 18-6-3 in their last 27 games as a road ‘dog.

New England has had recent success against San Diego, going 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS, including two huge wins in the playoffs (2006 and 2007 seasons).

Brady has won all four battles with Rivers. The one win (30-10) by San Diego in 2008 was when New England’s golden boy was out for the year and replaced by Matt Cassel. The Pats won 23-20 at San Diego last year, with turnovers the big key.

The ‘under’ is 3-0 in the last three meetings with an average total points scored of 38.7.

Weather should be a beautiful fall afternoon in New England, sunny and in the low 60s.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34892 Followers:38
09/14/2011 06:47 PM

Improved Redskins Battle Arizona Cardinals

The Redskins are a 4-point favorite for Sunday’s matchup with Arizona.
September could be the launching pad for both the Arizona Cardinals (1-0) and Washington Redskins (1-0). But only one will still be taking reservations for their respective bandwagons after their 1:00 p.m. (ET) clash on Sunday just inside the D.C. Beltway at FedEx Field.

More than a few NFC East aficionados are beginning to pay closer attention to the 'Skins, who opened in impressive fashion last week in their 28-14 win over the Giants. The reasons include:

1) Experience. Eight offensive and seven defensive starters return from last season. Thus, schemes from coordinators Kyle Shanahan (offense) and Jim Haslett (defense) should begin to resonate better.

2) Distractions. Coach Mike Shanahan has rid the roster of divisive elements such as Albert Haynesworth, Clinton Portis and, if sources are to be believed, Donovan McNabb. Insiders suggest the clubhouse is a more serene and focused place this season.

3) Improved defense. While making mention of the second year running Haslett’s 3-4 schemes, it’s also worth noting the potential upgrades along the front seven that could not stop the run a year ago thanks partly to deficiencies at nose tackle, where Haynesworth’s indifference and Ma’ake Kemoeatu’s inabilities both earned them tickets out of town.

All of those elements worked positively in last week’s win over the Giants, especially the defense, which contributed a key TD when Purdue rookie DT Ryan Kerrigan intercepted a tipped Eli Manning pass and rumbled nine yards for the go-ahead score early in the third quarter. The Redskins also didn’t allow the G-Men to score in the second half and kept the New York runners mostly in check, limiting Ahmad Bradshaw and friends to 75 yards on the ground.

The X-factor in Washington remains QB Rex Grossman, but Shanahan’s track record with his signal-callers suggests the former Bear can at least provide serviceable leadership, which he did in the opener in a mistake-free effort in which he tossed for 305 yards, 2 TDs, and no picks.

The addition of versatile ex-Arizona RB Tim Hightower, who should be excited to face his old team this weekend, and emergence of TE Fred Davis (105 receiving yards last week) as consistent contributors are other positive developments.

The Cardinals are feeling pretty good about themselves, too, after their opening 28-21 win over Carolina. Especially new QB Kevin Kolb’s Arizona debut in which he passed for 309 yards and two long TDs of 70 (to Early Doucet) and 48 (to Jeff King) yards.

There are some concerns in the desert, however, about a rebuilt secondary that allowed the Panthers’ Cam Newton to set an NFL rookie record for first starts by passing for 422 yards last Sunday. Trades and injuries have forced LSU rookie CB Patrick Peterson into a lineup that might miss departed Pro Bowl CB Antonio Rodgers-Cromartie (sent to Philly in the Kolb trade) more than expected.

The Big Red stop unit is also adjusting to its third coordinator in four years, former Pittsburgh assistant Ray Horton. A Dick LeBeau disciple, Horton’s Steeler-like zone blitz schemes figure to be a work in progress until further notice.

Interestingly, Washington – priced as a 4-point favorite at most Las Vegas books – was not home chalk the entirety of 2010. Note that Arizona has struggled recently vs. the number on the road, dropping six of its last seven spread decisions away from Glendale last season, and now 2-9 vs. the number as a visitor since late 2009.

With the "total" at a reasonable 44 points, it’s also worth noting that the Cards are "over" 13-5-1 (including the Carolina opener) since the ’09 playoffs.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34892 Followers:38
09/14/2011 06:49 PM

NFL Notebook - Week 2

September 14, 2011

Forget the new NFL kickoff rule. Even with kickoffs moved back from the 35 to the 30, the over went 12-3-1 in Week 1.

I don't think it was one of those fluke weeks either.

The combination of lockout and new practice rules negatively impacted tackling more than pass protection.

I can still picture Matt Forte eluding Atlanta linebacker Sean Weatherspoon's missed tackle on his way to a 56-yard touchdown reception.

More overs than unders may not just be an opening week trend either.

The new rules have reduced padded and contact practice sessions. So tackling may not improve.

As for the new kickoff rule, there still were three kickoffs returned for touchdowns. San Francisco's Ted Ginn returned both a kickoff and punt back for a touchdown against Seattle.

Speaking of the Seahawks, their loss to the 49ers was their 17th in their last 21 road games. Of those 21 defeats, 20 have been by double-digits. No surprise that the line on Seattle-Pittsburgh keeps climbing higher and higher.

Carolina is another bad road team. The Panthers have dropped 12 of their past 13 away contests. Their only win during this span came against the Giants late in the 2009 season after New York had quit.

Thoughts on Tony Romo: Nice guy. Excellent quarterback for fantasy football purposes. But a loser in real football.

How bad is Arizona's defense? Cam Newton threw for 422 yards and two touchdowns against the Cardinals in his NFL debut. Newton completed just 42 percent of his throws during preseason. His top passing yardage mark at Auburn was 335 yards. He never passed for 400 yards either when he played for Blinn Junior College.

Tom Brady was the league's unanimous MVP last year. Aaron Rodgers may be the best quarterback. But no player is more valuable to his team than Peyton Manning. If there was any doubt about this it was erased by the performance of Kerry Collins and the Colts against Houston this past Sunday.

The Colts don't have the makeup to be a physical running team. Collins isn't comfortable in their system and is over-the-hill. That's a losing combination. If Manning returns next year, he just may find himself tutoring Andrew Luck.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34892 Followers:38
09/14/2011 06:51 PM

Week 2 Preview: Bears at Saints



Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: New Orleans -6.5, Total: 47

If the Saints are going to rebound from a heartbreaking Week 1 loss, they’ll have to do it shorthanded when they host Chicago on Sunday.

WR Marques Colston (broken collarbone) is out, and slot receiver Lance Moore (groin) is questionable at best. It’s problematic, considering the Bears’ stout run defense and bend-don’t-break secondary. Chicago was 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS on the road last year, and its front four could create further problems for Drew Brees against the Saints’ leaky offensive line. The Bears have won four in a row SU against the Saints (2-0-2 ATS) dating back to 2005 (though three of those games were at Chicago in December/Janaury). Perhaps most importantly for Chicago, QB Jay Cutler is coming off a strong Week 1 performance (22-of-32, 312 yards, 2 TD) in a 30-12 drubbing of Atlanta. The FoxSheets have a three-star trend working against the Saints as well, making CHICAGO the pick:

Play Against - Home teams (NEW ORLEANS) - off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses. (97-48 since 1983, 66.9%, +44.2 units. Rating = 3*).

The Bears defense only surrendered a dozen points and forced three turnovers in Week 1, but they did allow Atlanta to gain 386 total yards on their home turf, including 7.9 yards per carry. They also have injuries to all three offensive signings from Dallas, as RB Marion Barber (calf), WR Roy Williams (groin) and WR Sam Hurd (ankle) are all questionable for Sunday’s game. Former Saints DE Charles Grant is still serving a suspension. The Bears have won three straight over New Orleans, but are 0-3-1 ATS at New Orleans since 1992.

The high-flying Saints figure to be just as potent on their fast surface in the Superdome as they were in Lambeau Field last Thursday. Brees threw for 419 yards and three scores against what figures to be a very good Green Bay defense. Unproven second-year WR Adrian Arrington is expected to see more targets with the injuries to Colston and Moore, but Brees never has any problems spreading the offense around. Defensively, the Saints were lit up for 399 yards in Green Bay, and top DE Will Smith will not play due to his suspension.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34892 Followers:38
09/14/2011 06:53 PM

Week 2 Preview: Jaguars at Jets


at NEW YORK JETS (1-0)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -9, Total: 38.5

Rex Ryan and the Jets defense will be licking their chops when journeyman quarterback Luke McCown leads the Jaguars into the New Meadowlands on Sunday.

McCown, who was anointed the starter just a week before the season opener, was solid in Week 1, but that was against a very suspect Tennessee defense. He’ll have his hands full against Ryan’s exotic blitz schemes. The Jets also have an edge with playmakers in the passing game against a Jaguars pass defense that continues to struggle. QB Mark Sanchez threw for 335 yards (one short of his career-high) in their comeback win over Dallas in Week 1, and Jacksonville was torched by WR Kenny Britt in its opener. The Jaguars came to New York in 2009 and stole a 24-22 win against the Jets in Ryan’s first season as their head coach, but New York has the firepower to overwhelm the Jags this time around. NEW YORK is the pick to win and cover the hefty spread.

The FoxSheets have a three-star trend that works against Jacksonville and head coach Jack Del Rio:

Del Rio is 3-14 ATS (17.6%, -12.4 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points as the coach of JACKSONVILLE. The average score was JACKSONVILLE 19.2, OPPONENT 26.7 - (Rating = 3*).

McCown completed 17-of-24 passes for 175 yards against Tennessee, but his performance had a lot to do with his team establishing the ground game. The Jaguars amassed 163 rushing yards as Maurice Jones-Drew tallied 97 yards and a touchdown. Jacksonville’s defense was also tough, holding Titans star RB Chris Johnson to 24 yards on nine carries. On the injury front, the Jaguars have several concerns, mainly their tight-end situation. Both Zach Miller (knee) and Marcedes Lewis (calf) are questionable for Sunday’s game. And the team’s best pass rusher, Aaron Kampman, will miss his second straight contest with a knee injury.

The Jets look to snap a three-game losing skid (and six-game ATS slide) to Jacksonville, having not covered a regular-season game versus the Jags since 1996. Although Sanchez should have another successful day throwing the football, New York has to do a better job improving its ground game after a measly 45 yards on 16 carries in a fortunate 27-24 win over Dallas. However, the Jets had no problem stuffing the Cowboys rushing attack, holding them to 64 yards on 26 carries (2.5 YPC). Although CB Darrelle Revis has been bothered by hip and leg injuries, he will start on Sunday. There are no other significant injuries to the Jets roster. New York is a healthy 19-11 ATS (63%) versus AFC opponents since 2009.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: