cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
09/16/2011 06:37 PM

Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, September 17

Saturday's best games

West Virginia won its last five games vs Maryland, the last four by 12+; WVU won last two visits here 31-14/31-19- they've got 1,194 yards on ground in last four series games. Terps gained 499 yards, 348 thru air in 32-24 win over suspension-plagued Miami, which turned ball over four times. Terps covered four of last five as home favorite. Mountaineers trailed Norfolk State 12-10 at half last week- they play LSU next week. WVU covered 11 of last 16 games as a road underdog.

Auburn gave up 38-34 points in its first two games, snuck out both wins now inexperienced team (6 starters back, QB's first road start) travels to play Clemson squad that lost 27-24 on Plains LY, Auburn's third series win in row, by 3-3-4 points. Clemson struggled with I-AA Wofford last week, winning 35-27 (21-21 at half); Terriers had 272 rushing yards vs Clemson. I'm guessing Auburn runs ball better than Wofford. Clemson is 7-5 as home fave under Swinney. Since '02, Auburn is 12-8 as road dog.

Over last 10 years, Ole Miss is just 4-12 as a road favorite. Underdogs are 8-3-1 vs spread in last dozen Ole Miss-Vandy games; Rebels won four of last six visits here, with favorites covering their last three trips to Music City. Vandy gave up defensive TD and another on a blocked punt last week, but still beat UConn despite completing only 13 of 27 passes, convering 2-16 on 3rd down. Commodores are 1-8 as home dog the last two years. First road start for Ole Miss QB Stoudt.

Colorado outgained Cal by 212 yards in OT loss last week, finding a star in soph WR Richardson (11 catches, 284 yards, two TDs)- they're 6-2 in last eight games vs Colorado State, with faves covering four of last five in series despite seven of last nine series games decided by 7 or less points. Buffs have injury problems on OL. State is 3-10 as road underdog with Fairchild as coach. Since '05, Colorado is 2-5 as fave away from Boulder. With Ohio State game on deck, Buffs need win here to avoid 0-4 start.

Florida won its last six games vs Tennessee (4-2 vs spread); Volunteers lost last three visits to Swamp by 10-39-9 points. Gators crushed pair of inferior foes (41-3/39-0) to start season, but both teams are I-A teams at least. Florida has very young OL (36 starts) and only four starters back on defense, but they have senior QB. Vols were 10-13 on 3rd down last week in 45-23 win over Cincinnati (was 14-14 in 1st quarter). Tennessee covered seven of its last ten games as a road underdog.

Underdogs are 7-1-1 vs spread in last nine Michigan State-Notre Dame games; Spartans won five of last six visits here- they've outgained Irish in 11 of last 14 series games, with five of last seven totals 55+. Notre Dame lost its first two games in excruciating style, giving up 203 passing yards in 4th quarter last week (to a QB not known for passing skills), turning ball over five times (three in red zone) week before. Senior QB Cousins threw for 2,825 yards LY; if young OL protects him, look out. Since '06, Spartans are 7-5 as a road underdog.

UCLA (+15) won 34-12 at Texas LY, running ball for 264 yards; it was supposed to be Neuheisel's breakthrough win, but Longhorns' struggles rest of year diminished win. Both sides are still struggling to find QB, are trying multiple kids in non-conference play. Bruins allowed 202 yards on ground to San Jose State, but pulled away late- they're 14-8 as home dog since '03, but just 7-6 under Neuheisel. Texas was down 13-3 at half to young BYU, pulled game out late- they're 7-4 as road fave since '08.

Louisville lost last four games vs Kentucky, with three of four by seven or less points; Cardinals lost last two visits here, 31-27/40-34. Dogs are 3-0 vs spread in their last three visits here. Cards outgained FIU 446-293 last week, held Panthers to nine first downs, but lost 24-17, with WR on FIU catching seven balls for 201 yards. Wildcats had only 114 yards in air in last week's 27-13 win over Central Michigan (trailed 13-6 at half). Louisville is 4-6-1 vs spread in last 11 games as a road underdog.

USC snuck out wins in its first two games, beating Minnesota 19-17 and Utah 23-14 (Utes' game-tying FG was blocked/run back for TD on last play of game); Trojans are now 3-10 in last 13 games as home favorite. Syracuse had only 36 yards rushing in 21-14 win over I-AA URI last week, after they beat Wake Forest in OT in opener (trailed 20-7 at half). Orange are just 6-23 on 3rd down- they're 5-3 vs spread under Marrone as road dog. USC had Pac-10 game last week, has another next week.

Oklahoma was 32-42/394 passing in 47-17 (-7) pasting of Florida State LY; Sooners are just 2-6 as road favorite last two years; they've got first Big 12 game next week. OU ran 100 plays for 663 yards in opener, easy win over Tulsa- they had 246 rushing yards, 417 thru air. Since 2007, Seminoles are 6-7 as underdog; over last decade, they're 2-2 as home dog. FSU hasn't been tested yet, waxing pair of overmatched foes. Each team has 16 starters back.

LY, Miami had TDs on both punt/kick return in Columbus, but still lost 36-24 (+8), thanks to minus-4 turnover ratio. No idea what to expect in Ohio State-Miami game this year, with so many guys still suspended on both sides. Hurricanes get QB Harris back here, but sub Morris played well enough in 32-24 loss at Maryland, as Miami gained 399 yards but turned ball over four times. Over last nine years, Miami is 16-33 as home favorite. Over last decade, Ohio State is 4-4 as a road underdog.

Home side won last four Utah-BYU games, with dogs 11-3 vs spread in last 14 series games; Utes lost last two visits here, 26-23/27-10- they're 6-1 vs spread in last seven series games as a dog, but are 6-7 as road dog under Whittingham. Both sides lost tough road games last week; this is an intense rivalry, but no longer a conference game, with Utah moving to Pac-10, and BYU an independent. Cougars have already played couple of tense road games; since '06, they're 15-10 as a home favorite.

Since 2005, Arizona is 9-1-1 as a home underdog, but they have one of youngest OLs in country; last week, Wildcats had only 41 rushing yards in 37-14 (+14) loss at Oklahoma State, now they get Stanford's prolific QB Luck. Cardinal had 205 yards rushing, 299 passing in 44-14 win last week at Duke. Arizona is way better than Duke, but Stanford won four of last five visits to Tucson, with last three decided by 5 or less points. Cardinal covered five of last six games as a road favorite.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 09/17/2011 09:41 AM

    Texas travels to UCLA Saturday

    at UCLA BRUINS (1-1)

    Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
    Line: Texas -3.5, Total: 44

    Texas looks for payback when they face a UCLA team that won big in Austin last season, 34-12. Much of that was due to five Texas turnovers plus a Bruins ground game that rumbled for 264 yards on 56 carries. The Horns come into the game having erased a 13-0 deficit to BYU at home on Saturday night, aided by a QB rotation of Case McCoy and David Ash after Garrett Gilbert (2-of-8, 8 yards, 2 INT) was benched in the second quarter.

    McCoy is expected to get the first snaps as Texas tries to end a three-game losing streak in the series. He went 7-of-8 for 57 yards and led the winning drive in the fourth quarter, while Ash completed 2-of-3 passes for 35 yards and rushed for 36. The Longhorns' other big decision was listing freshman Malcolm Brown as the starting tailback ahead of senior Fozzy Whittaker. Brown leads Texas with 154 rushing yards on 30 carries and should have success against a UCLA defense that’s given up 55 points this year in a loss to Houston and lackluster win over San Jose State last week. Expect the youth movement to result in TEXAS winning and covering the spread.

    The FoxSheets show a three-star trend backing the ‘Horns:

    Play On - Any team (TEXAS) - an average offensive team (21 to 28 PPG) against a good offensive team (28-34 PPG), after scoring and allowing 17 pts or less points. (30-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.9%, +21.2 units. Rating = 3*).

    UCLA’s Derrick Coleman rushed for 135 yards—all in the second half—and capped a 79-yard drive with a 24-yard touchdown run with 3:35 remaining to seal UCLA’s 27-17 win over San Jose State, which has been one of the worst FBS teams the past few seasons. UCLA hopes to be helped by the returns of linebacker Glenn Love and quarterback Kevin Prince from injuries, along with center Kai Maiava's return from a one-game team suspension. Prince left against Houston in the second quarter after sustaining a minor concussion and sprained right shoulder. UCLA head coach Rick Neuheisel has not said whether Prince or Richard Brehaut, who completed 12 of 23 passes for 145 yards and a touchdown last weekend, will start.

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 09/17/2011 09:44 AM

    WVU looks for 3-0 start at Maryland


    Kickoff: Saturday, noon EDT
    Line: Maryland -1, Total: 58

    The Mountaineers know they’ll need a huge improvement over last week when they travel to Maryland. West Virginia trailed 12-10 to Norfolk State at halftime before a 45-0 snowballing in the second half behind Geno Smith’s 371 passing yards and 4 TD, perhaps an indication that the Mountaineers are becoming more comfortable in new head coach Dana Holgorsen’s complicated system.

    Expect the visitors to cause problems for a Maryland defense that was shaky at times during a win over an undermanned Miami-Florida team in Week 1. The Mountaineers are 5-0 (4-1 ATS) in the past five meetings between these two—outscoring Maryland by an average score of 31-18—and WEST VIRGINIA is the pick to win this one on the road.

    This three-star FoxSheets trend also likes the Mountaineers.

    All teams where the line is +3 to -3 (W VIRGINIA) - after outgaining opp by 125 or more total yards in their previous game, with 4 or fewer defensive starters returning. (30-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (78.9%, +21.2 units. Rating = 3*).

    Smith also threw four touchdown passes in last year’s 31-17 win over Maryland. The Terrapins rushed for minus-10 yards in Morgantown, as WVU tallied eight sacks. Maryland hasn’t played since that aforementioned game against Miami on Labor Day, a 32-24 win. Danny O’Brien threw for 348 yards against the ‘Canes and Davin Meggett rushed for 92 yards. Maryland wasn’t exactly dominant, but the Terps were effective at taking advantage of the Hurricanes' mistakes, running back an interception and a fumble for touchdowns. A 54-yard interception return by defensive back Cameron Chism with 39 seconds left sealed the victory after kicker Nick Ferrara gave Maryland a 26-24 lead with a 32-yard field goal with 1:39 remaining.

    It's a promising start for coach Randy Edsall, who took over a program that went 9-4 last season. However, that wasn't enough to save Ralph Friedgen's job, and fans are looking for more this year. They may not get it here in their second game of the season: The Mountaineers are rarely an underdog—and they’re only the slightest of dogs here—but have gone 6-1 ATS when getting points since 2007.

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 09/17/2011 09:46 AM

    MSU tries to hand Notre Dame 3rd straight loss


    Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
    Line: Notre Dame -5, Total: 52

    Michigan State tries to kick a team when it’s down when it visits South Bend.

    Notre Dame led Michigan 24-7 after three quarters before allowing 28 points in the fourth. QB Tommy Rees threw for 315 yards and three touchdowns, but also had two interceptions and a lost fumble in the red zone in that game. Neither of Notre Dame’s quarterbacks, first Dayne Crist and now Rees, has taken care of the ball. The Irish have turned it over 10 times in two games and are 0-2 despite outgaining their two opponents 1,021 to 706. Michigan State is 6-2 SU (7-1 ATS) over their last eight games in South Bend. And, more importantly, these teams always play close games. Four of the last six matchups have been decided by three points, and nine of the last 11 have been decided by a touchdown or less. With another tight one likely coming on Saturday, Michigan State is the pick.

    The FoxSheets show a three-star trend that also works against the Irish:

    NOTRE DAME is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons. The average score was NOTRE DAME 27.3, OPPONENT 26.2 - (Rating = 3*).

    The Spartans have only allowed 302 total yards (152 passing) and six points in wins over Youngstown State and Florida Atlantic. MSU is 11-3-1 ATS (10-5 SU) versus Notre Dame since 1995, including last year’s amazing 34-31 overtime win on a fake field goal TD pass. QB Kirk Cousins has 41 TD and 20 INT in his career and has been sharp in what were essentially two warmup games to start 2011: 34-for-42, 405 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs.

    The Notre Dame defense allowed 338 passing yards to a Michigan passing game that isn’t very sophisticated. They’ve also already racked up 148 penalty yards through two games.

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 09/17/2011 09:47 AM

    Washington and Nebraska meet again


    Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
    Line: Nebraska -17, Total: 55

    Washington and Nebraska play for the third time in less than 12 months on Saturday. The Cornhuskers rushed for 383 yards and 6 TD in a 56-21 win in Seattle in Week 3 last season. But the Huskies got even in the Holiday Bowl, limiting Nebraska to 91 yards on 41 carries and winning 19-7. Nebraska is a large favorite—although the line has dropped since having opened at 18.5—as it was prior to the Holiday Bowl.

    Some suggested that the Huskers weren’t ready in the previous meeting, having lost their previous game to Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game, and thus squandering a chance to go to a BCS Bowl. Expect revenge to play a factor Saturday and for fiery Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini to have his players fully focused, which is one of the reasons why NEBRASKA is the pick to win comfortably and cover the large spread at home.

    The FoxSheets show another reason to side with the Huskers:

    WASHINGTON is 13-30 ATS (30.2%, -20.0 Units) after allowing 125 or less rushing yards in 2 straight games since 1992. The average score was WASHINGTON 24.0, OPPONENT 24.9 - (Rating = 1*).

    Washington sophomore QB Keith Price has been impressive this season, going 35-for-50 for 417 yards, 7 TD and 1 INT after having taken over for Jake Locker, who was a first-round NFL Draft pick. Huskers QB Taylor Martinez, who had 287 total yards and four scores in Seattle last year, torched Fresno State for 385 yards (219 passing, 166 rushing) and 3 total TD in Saturday’s 42-29 victory.

    Martinez and the Nebraska offense pose a different challenge than what Washington has faced so far this season—the Huskies’ first two opponents attempted 114 total passes, while Nebraska has thrown just 46 in two weeks. Washington will at least be familiar with what it sees, as the entire defensive line from last season has remained intact.

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
  • 09/17/2011 10:14 AM

    Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
    09/16/11 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
    09/15/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
    09/10/11 42-*42-*0 50.00% -*2100 Detail
    09/09/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
    09/08/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
    09/05/11 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
    09/04/11 1-*1-*2 50.00% -*50 Detail
    09/03/11 34-*16-*2 68.00% +*8200 Detail
    09/02/11 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
    09/01/11 7-*12-*0 36.84% -*3100 Detail
    Totals 95-*78-*4 54.91% +4600

    Saturday, September 17

    Game Score Status Pick Amount

    West Virginia - 12:00 PM ET West Virginia +1 500
    Maryland - Over 57.5 500

    Eastern Michigan - 12:00 PM ET Michigan -28.5 500
    Michigan - Under 62.5 500

    Wyoming - 12:00 PM ET Bowling Green -9.5 500
    Bowling Green - Over 54.5 500

    Penn State - 12:00 PM ET Temple +7 500
    Temple - Over 46 500

    Auburn - 12:00 PM ET Auburn +3.5 500
    Clemson - Over 60.5 500

    Pittsburgh - 12:00 PM ET Iowa -3 500
    Iowa - Under 51 500

    Central Michigan - 12:00 PM ET Central Michigan +7.5 500
    Western Michigan - Under 54 500

    Mississippi - 12:20 PM ET Mississippi -2.5 500
    Vanderbilt - Under 47 500

    Kansas - 12:30 PM ET Kansas +14.5 500
    Georgia Tech - Over 62 500

    Duke - 12:30 PM ET Duke +7 500
    Boston College - Under 48.5 500

    Colorado State - 1:30 PM ET Colorado State +7 500
    Colorado - Over 50.5 500

    UL Monroe - 2:00 PM ET Texas Christian -29.5 500
    Texas Christian - Over 52.5 500

    Tennessee - 3:30 PM ET Tennessee +10 500
    Florida - Under 52 500

    Miami (Ohio) - 3:30 PM ET Miami (Ohio) +5 500
    Minnesota - Under 44.5 500

    Washington - 3:30 PM ET Nebraska -17.5 500
    Nebraska - Under 54.5 500

    Northern Illinois - 3:30 PM ET Wisconsin -16.5 500
    Wisconsin - Over 64.5 500

    Akron - 3:30 PM ET Akron +34 500
    Cincinnati - Under 56 500

    Texas - 3:30 PM ET UCLA +3.5 500
    UCLA - Under 45.5 500

    Michigan State - 3:30 PM ET Michigan State +5 500
    Notre Dame - Over 51.5 500

    Virginia - 3:30 PM ET North Carolina -10.5 500
    North Carolina - Under 48 500

    Texas Tech - 3:30 PM ET Texas Tech -20.5 500
    New Mexico - Over 54.5 500

    Northwestern - 3:30 PM ET Army +5.5 500
    Army - Over 54 500

    Nevada - 4:00 PM ET San Jose State +6 500
    San Jose State - Over 54 500

    Arkansas State - 4:00 PM ET Arkansas State +24 500
    Virginia Tech - Over 53 500

    Tulane - 4:00 PM ET Tulane +13 500
    Alabama-Birmingham - Over 54 500

    Central Florida - 6:00 PM ET Central Florida -6 500
    Florida International - Under 51 500

    Navy - 6:00 PM ET Navy +15.5 500
    Carolina - Over 58 500

    Washington State - 6:30 PM ET Washington State +4.5 500
    San Diego State - Over 56.5 500

    Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
09/17/2011 07:42 PM

Evening games....sorry could post the earlier 4pm games was stuck in traffic.

Syracuse - 8:00 PM ET Syracuse +16.5 500
Southern California - Under 50 500

Oklahoma - 8:00 PM ET Oklahoma -3.5 500 POD
Florida State - Under 56.5 500

Northwestern State - 8:00 PM ET Northwestern State +28.5 500
Southern Methodist -

Texas El Paso - 8:00 PM ET New Mexico State -2.5 500
New Mexico State - Over 49.5 500

Utah - 9:15 PM ET Brigham Young -4 500
Brigham Young - Under 46 500

Oklahoma State - 10:00 PM ET Oklahoma State -13.5 500
Tulsa - Under 67 500

North Dakota - 10:00 PM ET North Dakota +28 500
Fresno State -

Hawaii - 10:00 PM ET Hawaii -17 500
UNLV - Under 60.5 500

Stanford - 10:45 PM ET Stanford -9.5 500
Arizona - Under 55.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: