cnotes Posts:33372 Followers:38
09/14/2011 06:39 PM

Trending: BCS vs. BCS non-conference games

From 2008 to 2010, there were 143 regular-season games featuring a member of one BCS conference versus a member of a different BCS conference. Since Notre Dame is part of the BCS bowl scenario, all of the Fighting Irish’s games against BCS foes are included in this group.
Overall, home field hasn’t meant anything in these games, as home squads are just 65-66 SU (49.6%). Favorites are 69-61 (53%) ATS (there was one pick ‘em). There have been nine neutral-site BCS conference versus BCS conference games, with underdogs going 5-4 (56%) ATS. In all of the games involving a true home team, there has been a slight lean toward the Over (74-59, 56%). The Under is a solid 6-3 (67%) in the neutral-site games.

In terms of how each conference has fared ATS in these matchups, the current Big 12 membership tops the list, with the SEC bringing up the rear.
Big 12: 17-14 (55%)
Pac-12: 29-27 (52%)
Big Ten: 21-20 (51%)
ACC: 30-29 (51%)
Big East: 22-24 (48%)
SEC: 20-25 (44%)

The best individual records in these games ATS are:
Alabama 4-0
Kansas 3-0
Oklahoma St. 3-0
California 4-1
S. Carolina 4-1
UCLA 4-1
(minimum of 3 games for all team lists)
As for the worst, LSU, Tennessee and Texas A&M are all 0-3.

In terms of totals, the current Pac-12 and Big 12 memberships are both better than 60% Over the total:
Pac-12 37-21 (64%)
Big 12 19-12 (61%)
ACC 30-25 (55%)
Big East 26-23 (53%)
SEC 23-22 (51%)
Big Ten 21-21 (50%)

The strongest Over plays in these games are:
California 5-0
Kansas 3-0
Washington 5-1
Baylor 4-1
Colorado 4-1
Georgia Tech 4-1
Oklahoma 4-1

The most consistent under plays are:
Boston College 0-4
Arizona St. 0-3
Iowa State 1-3
USC 2-6

If you’re wondering about Notre Dame, the Irish are 8-5 (62%) ATS and 8-7 Over (53%).

Moving on from the conference-by-conference breakdowns, we dug even deeper to find some stronger angles to look for this season when foes from rival BCS conferences clash:

Road teams are 12-4 (75%) ATS when favored by 8 points or more. The Over is 14-4 (82%) in these games.

Home teams are 13-8 (62%) ATS when favored by 14 points or more. The Over is also 13-8 (62%) in these games.

Home teams are 6-2 (75%) ATS when favored by 21 points or more.

The Over is 8-2 (80%) when the total is 41 points or less. Home teams are 7-2 (78%) ATS in these games.

The Under is 6-3 (67%) when the total is 60 points or more.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33372 Followers:38
09/15/2011 06:22 PM

Miami favored to beat No. 17 Ohio State Saturday


Kickoff: Saturday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Miami -3, Total: 48

This is a matchup of two schools who have made headlines for all the wrong reasons in the past few months.

Despite the expected returns of QB Jacory Harris, WR Travis Benjamin and LB Sean Spence, the Hurricanes still have significant players suspended and injured. Harris does not usually play well against strong defenses, evidenced by his four interceptions in a 36-24 loss at Ohio State last year. And with the Buckeyes’ excellent run-stop unit, the ‘Canes fate in this game rests mostly on the erratic arm of Harris. OSU is 16-6 ATS (73%) on the road since 2007. The pick here is OHIO STATE.

The FoxSheets show another reason to choose the Buckeyes.

OHIO ST is 11-3 ATS (78.6%, +7.7 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The average score was OHIO ST 38.2, OPPONENT 13.9 - (Rating = 1*).

No. 17 Ohio State escaped The Horseshoe with an unimpressive 27-22 win over Toledo Saturday. The Buckeyes only gained 301 total yards on offense, and allowed 292 yards passing. However, OSU’s run defense has allowed 81 yards on 57 carries this year (1.4 YPC).

The Hurricanes haven’t played since their Labor Day loss to Maryland, when the defense allowed a hefty 499 yards to the Terps and turned the ball over four times on offense.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33372 Followers:38
09/15/2011 06:24 PM

No. 5 FSU looks to knock off No. 1 Oklahoma


Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma -3, Total: 55

The best game in college football this weekend is in Tallahassee with No. 1 Oklahoma visiting No. 5 Florida State.

One game does not make a season, but the Sooners were tremendous in their opener, allowing just 14 points to a Tulsa team that returned its starting QB from the fifth-best offense in FBS last year (506 YPG). Oklahoma’s offense racked up 663 yards as junior Dominique Whaley rumbled for 131 yards and 4 TD. The Sooners pummeled FSU last year 47-17 as they racked up 487 total yards. The Seminoles aren’t a good enough running team (4.0 YPC vs. Louisiana-Monroe and Charleston Southern) to keep this game close. Take OKLAHOMA giving points on the road.

The FoxSheets provide another trend which backs the Sooners.

Bob Stoops is 11-3 ATS (78.6%, +7.7 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 as the coach of OKLAHOMA. The average score was OKLAHOMA 29.7, OPPONENT 21.8 - (Rating = 1*).

In last year’s rout of Florida State, Landry Jones threw for 380 yards and four touchdowns, but only one to his star receiver Ryan Broyles. Oklahoma had a bye after crushing Tulsa 47-14 on Sept. 3 behind 375 passing yards from Jones. Dating back to last season, OU’s star quarterback has averaged 376 yards per game with 17 TD in his past six contests. He’ll also have another weapon in his arsenal as Kenny Stills returns from a suspension. The defense will also get a tremendous boost with its best DT Stacy McGee back on the field after serving his one-game suspension.

Seminoles QB E.J. Manuel has been tremendous as the replacement for the departed Christian Ponder. Manuel is 46-of-69 for 581 yards, 6 TD and 2 INT as his team beat Louisiana-Monroe 34-0 and Charleston Southern 62-10. Head coach Jimbo Fisher has been making adjustments to his offensive line to help spur the rushing attack, which is led by James Wilder Jr. who has a total of 76 rushing yards in two games. FSU has won 10 of its past 11 home games but is just 5-10 ATS in the past 15 contests at Doak Campbell Stadium.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33372 Followers:38
09/15/2011 06:25 PM

No. 4 Boise State travels to Toledo Friday


Kickoff: Friday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Boise State -19.5, Total: 58.5

Well-rested Boise State looks to show off its high-flying offense Friday night against a Toledo squad that nearly beat Ohio State in Columbus.

The Rockets outgained OSU, but committed 14 penalties and were 3-of-16 on third downs in the 27-22 loss. They can’t afford to be sloppy again Friday, because the Broncos make teams pay for mistakes. QB Kellen Moore was 16-of-22 for 267 yards and 3 first-half TD in last year’s 57-14 rout of Toledo, which committed five turnovers on the blue turf. The Broncos are 18-3 ATS in non-home games since 2008, and will put on a show for the national TV audience. The pick here is BOISE STATE.

The FoxSheets provide a three-star reason to side with the Broncos.

Play On - Road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (BOISE ST) - good passing team from last season - averaged 8 or more passing yards/attempt. (27-5 over the last 10 seasons.) (84.4%, +21.5 units. Rating = 3*).

Moore lit up Georgia for 261 yards and 3 TD in BSU’s opening win on Sept. 3. In typical Moore fashion, he spread the wealth to a bevy of receivers as seven players caught multiple passes and nobody had more than six of the team’s 28 receptions. The rushing attack was disappointing as Doug Martin only gained 57 yards on 24 attempts (2.4 YPC). Last year, Martin averaged 97 rushing yards per game and a whopping 6.3 YPC. The ground game could be missing fullback Dan Paul who is questionable with a groin injury. The Broncos could get a boost with the possible returns of WR Geraldo Boldewijn and S Cedric Febis who were suspended by the NCAA for undisclosed reasons.

The Rockets have never hosted team ranked as high as No. 4 Boise State. For Toledo to keep this contest competitive, WR Eric Page will continue to be the main target in the passing game. Page caught 12 passes for 145 yards and 2 TD against what many consider to be a great Ohio State defense, so he should have no trouble getting open against the Broncos secondary. The ground game should have an easier time chewing up yards against BSU than it did against Ohio State. Toledo gained just 46 yards on 30 carries against the Buckeyes.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33372 Followers:38
09/15/2011 06:27 PM

No. 6 Stanford visits Arizona Saturday night


Kickoff: Saturday, 10:45 p.m. EDT
Line: Stanford -9.5, Total: 54

Andrew Luck brings his explosive air attack into the desert, when No. 6 Stanford takes on an Arizona team eager to erase last Thursday’s 37-14 drubbing at Oklahoma State.

Luck threw for 290 yards and a career-high tying 4 TD in Saturday’s 44-14 win at Duke. Wildcats QB Nick Foles gained 398 yards through the air against OSU, but Arizona amassed just 41 yards on 21 carries. Stanford has won six of the past eight meetings (SU and ATS) against the Wildcats, and is 5-2 ATS in its past seven trips to the Tucson desert. Expect more of the same on Saturday as STANFORD is the pick to win by double-digits.

The FoxSheets provide a rare four-star trend urging bettors to fade the Wildcats:

Play Against - A home team (ARIZONA) - after allowing 37 points or more last game against opponent after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points. (28-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (87.5%, +23.6 units. Rating = 4*).

Stanford just pummeled Arizona last season, going up 28-3 midway through the third quarter and cruising to a 42-17 victory. QB Andrew Luck is 44-of-67 for 722 yards, 5 TD and 1 INT in two career games against the Wildcats. But don’t forget about the Cardinal rushing attack, because they can also gain yards on the ground. In two games this year, Stanford has rumbled for 346 yards on 70 attempts (4.9 YPC).

The Wildcats have been the complete opposite, as they have been stagnant in their attempt to gain yardage on the ground. Arizona has a mere 116 rushing yards on 41 carries this year, which is 2.8 yards per carry. QB Nick Foles (801 pass yds, 6 TD, 0 INT) will likely continue to air out the football, especially if star WR Juron Criner returns from a Sept. 5 appendectomy. Criner caught nine passes for 98 yards and a touchdown in last season’s loss to Stanford.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33372 Followers:38
09/15/2011 06:30 PM

Boise St. at Toledo

September 15, 2011

Editor's note: Brian Edwards is out to a flying start in college football, cashing tickets at a 10-4 clip (71%, +565, #3 on VI!) in Weeks 1 and 2. Brian is back in action tonight with this pay-if-it-wins-only selection and he also has these plays ready for Saturday.

After dealing out woodshed treatment to Georgia in Atlanta, Boise State (1-0 straight up, 1-0 against the spread) had an open date in Week 2. The Broncos will get back to work Friday night when they go on the road again to take on Toledo at the Glass Bowl.

Most betting shops opened Chris Petersen’s team as a 17-point favorite Sunday night. However, the number was up to 18 or 18 ½ by Monday afternoon. Then on Tuesday, most spots adjusted BSU to a 20-point ‘chalk.’ The total was in the 59-60 range Thursday morning, while Toledo (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS) was listed at plus-700 to win outright (risk $100 to win $700).

Kellen Moore was the catalyst for Boise St. in its 35-21 season-opening win over UGA, completing 28-of-34 passes for 261 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Without former star WRs Austin Pettis and Titus Young, Moore spread the wealth around by connecting with five different targets three times or more.

UGA drew first blood on an 80-yard touchdown run, but BSU responded by scoring 28 unanswered points. While Moore shredded the Dawgs’ secondary, Boise St.’s defense looked like an SEC-type unit by locking down Aaron Murray and Co. (BSU’s ‘D’ looks even better after Georgia put up 42 points against South Carolina this past weekend.)

Georgia would cut the deficit to 14 twice at 28-14 and 35-21, but it never really got back into the game. When the final gun sounded, Boise St. had gone into enemy territory across the country to pick up a huge win for a second straight season opener.

Tim Beckman’s team won its lid-lifter by trouncing New Hampshire 58-22 as a 10 ½-point home favorite. Junior quarterback Austin Dantin, a product of Tallahassee Leon High School’s storied high-school program, completed 15-of-21 throws for 161 yards and three TDs without a pick. Senior RB Adonis Thomas added 115 yards and one TD rushing on just nine carries.

In Week 2, Toledo gave Ohio St. fits for 60 minutes at The Horseshoe. The Rockets may have pulled the outright upset if not for giving up a 69-yard punt return for a TD with only 46 seconds left in the first half. The Buckeyes eventually captured a 27-22 win, but they never threatened to cover the number as 17 ½-point home favorites.

Dantin, who split time under center with sophomore Terrance Owens, played well once again. He connected on 14-of-26 passes for 155 yards and one TD without an interception. Thomas was limited to 47 rushing yards on 14 carries, but he found paydirt on a four-yard TD run that gave his team a 22-21 advantage early in the third quarter.

Toledo out-yarded OSU 338-304 but couldn’t muster any offense in the final stanza.

This will be the Rockets’ fourth game as home underdogs during Beckman’s three-year tenure. They are 2-1 ATS in the three previous situations, beating Colorado and No. Illinois outright in 2009. Dating back to 2001, Toledo is 10-4 ATS as a home underdog.

Boise St. owns a 17-10 spread record as a road favorite under Petersen, going 16-6 versus the number in such spots since 2007. The Broncos are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as double-digit road favorites.

Kick-off is slated for Friday night at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Also on Friday, UConn will play host to Iowa St. on ESPN2 at 8:00 p.m. Eastern. The Huskies are looking to bounce back from a 24-21 loss at Vandy, while the Cyclones might be in a letdown situation after beating arch-rival Iowa 44-41 in overtime.

--Florida owns an 18-9 spread record as a home favorite since 2007. The Gators, as of Wednesday night, were listed as 9 ½-point favorites for their SEC opener Saturday vs. Tennessee.

--UT quarterback Tyler Bray, fresh off a career-high 405 passing yards in a 45-23 win over Cincinnati, will try to become the first Vol QB not named Casey Clausen to win at The Swamp since the early 1970s. Bray had four TD passes and one TD rushing against the Bearcats.

--After not being able to go at Wednesday’s practice, Boston College star RB Montel Harris was downgraded to ‘doubtful’ for Saturday’s game vs. Duke. Harris, who rushed for 1,243 yards and eight TDs in 2010, has missed the Eagles’ first two games. They are 0-2 after losing to Northwestern at home before getting thumped last week at UCF.

--Ole Miss RB Brandon Bolden has been upgraded to ‘probable’ for Saturday’s game against unbeaten Vanderbilt in Nashville. Bolden sat out last week’s win over Southern Illinois after suffering a leg injury in a 14-13 home loss to BYU in the season opener. Bolden had 14 TDs rushing and a 6.0 yards-per-carry average last year. The Rebels are 1 ½-point road favorites against the Commodores.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33372 Followers:38
09/15/2011 06:35 PM

Big 10 Report - Week 3

September 15, 2011

Ohio State (+3) at Miami - 7:30 PM EST, ESPN

OSU: 2-0 SU. 1-1 ATS - Last week: vs. Toledo, W 27-22
MIA: 0-1 SU. 0-1 ATS - Last week: OFF

Don't buy too much into Ohio State's near debacle against Toledo last week. Toledo is a solid team and their coach Tim Beckman had a stellar gameplan against his former team. Plus, Ohio State probably had its sights set on Miami this week and overlooked the Rockets a bit. The Buckeyes now make their first road trip of the season to Miami where they are underdogs for the first time since late 2009.

OSU has allowed just 81 rushing yards on 57 carries through two games (1.4 YPC). As a team, Miami rushed for 172 yards and three touchdowns in its Labor Day loss at Maryland. The 'Canes rushed for 120 yards against OSU last season and had a punt and kickoff return for touchdown. They were ultimately doomed by QB Jacory Harris' four interceptions and lost by 12. Harris returns from his one-game suspension this week (as well has three other Miami starters) and he'll be extremely motivated to have a redemption performance this season.

Things to consider: The Canes are just 16-33 ATS as a home favorite dating back to 2001 but they've pulled off a couple of big wins (vs. #20 Texas A&M in 2007 and vs. #8 Oklahoma in 2009).

Injury/suspension notes: OSU RB Hall, and DB's Howard and Brown were reinstated this week but Herron, Posey, Adams are still out. Three starters remain suspended for Miami (SS Armstrong, DT Vernon, and WR Johnson) and OT Henderson is out with a back injury.

Arizona State at Illinois (-1) 7:00 PM EST, Big Ten Network

ASU: 2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS - Last week: vs. Missouri, W 37-30
ILL: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS - Last week: vs FCS South Dakota State, W 56-3

This marks the first real test of the season for Illinois after two big wins against Arkansas State and FCS South Dakota State (combined score of 89-18). Sophomore QB Scheelhaase has completed 71% of his passes, rushed for 172 yards, and accumulated four total touchdowns through two games. Arizona State really struggled against a mobile QB last week and could have some problems if Scheelhaase gets on a roll.

The Sun Devils are off of an extremely emotional game. ASU was at home in front of a "black-out" crowd against a ranked team. The Devils survived a comeback attempt and ultimately won in overtime. This is a let-down situation as the Devils are playing in their first road game of the season at an underrated Big Ten squad.

Something to consider: Illinois is just 3-9 vs. non conference BCS opponents under head coach Ron Zook. Arizona State has dropped three straight road openers but the last two have come by a total of just four points against two quality opponents (Georgia and Wisconsin).

Washington at Nebraska (-17) - 3:30 PM EST, ABC

UW: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS - Last week: vs. Hawaii, W 40-32
NU: 2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS - Last week: vs. Fresno State, W 42-29

The Cornhuskers normally stout defensive unit allowed 444 yards, 24 first downs, and 29 points to Fresno State at home last week. Nebraska should expect much more from its defense going forward and coach Bo Pelini will make adjustments. Offensively, the Huskers had its ups and downs. QB Martinez rushed for 166 yards and two scores, but completed just 48% and threw two picks.

Washington was outgained by 254 by FCS Eastern Washington in week one and only won by three points despite +4 turnover ratio. They then staved off a Hawaii comeback in week two and won by eight points. Washington was dominated by the Huskers, 21-56, early last season and then beat Nebraska, 19-7, in the Holiday Bowl for a shocking turnaround. Nebraska had 385 rushing yards and six touchdowns in the first matchup, then gained just 94 yards with no touchdowns in the Bowl game.

Something to consider: The Huskies rank 7th in the nation defending the run (43 yards per game) and dead last in the nation defending the pass (403 yards per game). Nebraska has lost two straight home games against non-conference BCS foes (Virginia Tech in 2008 & USC in 2007).

Injury report: Nebraska star CB Dennard remains questionable and is unlikely to play for the third straight week.

Michigan State (+5.5) at Notre Dame - 3:30 PM EST, NBC

MSU: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS - Last week: vs. Florida Atlantic, W 44-0
ND: 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS - Last week: at Michigan, L 31-35

MSU's defense was supposed to struggle after losing four of its top five defenders from a year ago. Instead the Spartans have allowed just six points through two games, albeit to FCS Youngstown State and Florida Atlantic. Last week FAU had just one first down and just 48 total yards. The Spartans will have their first real test against a fully motivated Notre Dame squad this week.

Notre Dame is on the brink of starting the season 0-3. The Irish have out-gained both opponents so far, racking up over 500 yards in two losses; but have committed five turnovers in each game. They also have the extra motivation to revenge last year's loss in this rivalry game, when MSU used a fake punt in overtime to beat the Irish.

Something to consider: Michigan State has covered seven straight times at Notre Dame while the Irish are just 1-6 ATS the last seven games vs. the Big Ten.

Injury report: MSU could be without two starters for the second straight week as WR Bennie Fowler (foot) and DE Tyler Hoover (back) remain questionable heading into the weekend.

Penn State (7.5) at Temple 12:00 PM EST, ESPN

PSU: 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS - Last week: vs. Alabama, L 11-27
TU: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS - Last week: at Akron, W 41-3

The Nittany Lions were dominated by Alabama for the 2nd year in a row to the tune of 27-11. It's worth noting that Bama has arguably the best defense of any team in the past decade, and PSU gained 251 yards in the loss. The outcome may have been different if the Lions could have avoided their three turnovers. They'll look to bounce back against a Temple squad that they've beaten 28 straight times - including five straight by an average score of 35-4 (two shutouts).

Temple is 2-0 and has outscored its first two opponents 83-10 (FCS Villanova and Akron). RB Bernard Pierce has 297 rushing yards and six touchdowns already and he'll need a big performance if Temple is going to pull off the upset. Defensively the Owls lost its top four players from a year ago but seem to have found a few capable replacements. PSU still hasn't settled on a starting quarterback and lacks an offensive identity and that could keep Temple in this game.

Something to consider: Since 1977 (25 games), Temple has topped 14 points just four times (!) against Penn State with an average score of 37-9.

Suspension report: Stephfon Green (No. 2 running back) has been re-instated to the team after being suspended for disciplinary reasons, yet remains questionable for Saturday.

Wisconsin (16.5) at Northern Illinois - 3:30 PM EST,

UW: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS - Last week: vs. Oregon State, W 35-0
NIU: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS - Last week: at Kansas, L 42-45

This will be Wisconsin's first "road" game of the season (game is being played at Soldier field yet is deemed "home" for Northern Illinois. The Badgers won the previous two meetings (07 & 09) by a combined score of 72-23. QB Wilson has been brilliant in his first two games as a Badger, completing 79% for 444 yards and five touchdowns. RB Ball leads the ground game with 181 rushing yards and six touchdowns so far.

NIU's first year head coach is Dave Doeren, who was Wisconsin's defensive coordinator the past three seasons. He has a great grasp on the Badger's roster make-up and offensive and defensive philosophy (UW had to change defensive signals this week so he wouldn't recognize). He inherited a ton of returning talent on offense led by senior quarterback Chandler Harnish. Harnish is completing 75% through two games and has 11 total touchdowns (7 passing, 4 rushing).

Something to consider: Wisconsin is just 4-11-1 ATS its last 16 games as a double-digit road chalk.

Injury report: Wisconsin lost starting CB Devin Smith to an ankle injury against Oregon State and he's out for the season. That could be a big absence against Harnish and this NIU offense.

Pittsburgh at Iowa (-3) - 12:00 PM EST, ESPN2

PITT: 2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS - Last week: vs. FCS Maine, W 35-29
UI: 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS - Last week: at Iowa State, L 41-44

This Iowa defense lost four players to the NFL from last year and really struggled in the loss to Iowa State last week. Iowa was outgained by 100+ yards and had eight fewer first downs. ISU QB Jantz was 18-of-40 with 3 INT's against FCS Northern Iowa in week one, but he torched this Hawkeyes defense to the tune of 25-of-37 with 4 touchdowns last week. The Hawks 'D' needs to rebound this week against a Pitt team that runs a high-tempo spread offense.

Pitt is 2-0 under first-year coach Todd Graham with two unimpressive wins over Buffalo and FCS Maine. RB Ray Graham leads the nation with 332 rushing yards (5.6 YPC) with six touchdowns. He could have a big day against this Hawkeye run defense that surrendered 194 rushing yards to ISU. Pittsburgh is just 1-4 since 2007 in non-conference road games against BCS schools.

Something to consider: Iowa is just 6-5 straight up the last 11 years following its rivalry game with Iowa State. That includes a loss at Pittsburgh in 2008.

Northwestern (-9) at Army - 3:30 PM EST, CBS Sports

NU: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS - Last week: vs. FCS Eastern Illinois, W 42-21
Army: 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS - Last week: vs. San Diego State, L 20-23

After a big road win against Boston College in week one, Northwestern returned home and easily dispatched of FCS Eastern Illinois, 42-21. QB Colter had another strong performance (3 rushing touchdowns) as a starter in place of injured Dan Persa. This defense did allow 132 rushing yards (5.1 YPC) and that's concerning heading into a game against a team that averages 353 rushing yards per game.

Army outgained San Diego State by 154 yards and held the ball for +25 minutes yet still lost by three points. They ran the ball 77 times for 403 yards and fumbled eight times (lost three). Look for another run-dominated gameplan against the Wildcats.

Something to consider: Army is 1-11 straight up and 3-9 ATS as a touchdown or more underdog at home since 2005.

Injury report: NU QB Persa remains questionable heading into this weekend. Northwestern hasn't needed him yet and may not need him against Army.

Eastern Michigan at Michigan (-30) - 12:00 EST, Big Ten Network

EMU: 2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS - Last week: vs. FCS Alabama State, W 14-7
UM: 2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS - Last week: vs. Notre Dame, W 35-31

Eastern Michigan has a pair of unimpressive wins over FCS schools Howard and Alabama State. So take the Eagles strong defensive rankings (8th in total yards, 8th in scoring) with a grain of salt. EMU is averaging 331 rushing yards per game and that's good for fifth in the nation.

Michigan will try to avoid a hangover after a huge Saturday night win in which they scored the final touchdown with just seconds left against rival Notre Dame (the first night game ever in Ann Arbor). The Wolverines are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight games favored by 20 points or more (0-4 ATS when favored by 28 points or more).

Something to consider: Eastern Michigan has lost 12 straight road openers by an average of 28 points per game. Michigan is 9-0 against EMU and has won the last four by an average of 48-15.

Miami (OH) at Minnesota (4.5) - 3:30 PM EST, Big Ten Network

Miami: 0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS - Last week: OFF
UM: 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS - Last week: vs. New Mexico State, L 21-28

The status of Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill is uncertain this week after he suffered a seizure on the sidelines against New Mexico State. OC Limegrover and DC Claeys have been running practices this week in anticipation that Kill will not be there this weekend. Minnesota can ill afford to lose continuity this early in the season as the Gophers are 0-2 in Kill's first season as head coach. Minnesota was a heavy favorite against New Mexico State yet was bested in almost every aspect of the game last week.

Miami is 0-1 after a week one loss at Missouri under new head coach Don Treadwell. Defensively the RedHawks held Mizzou to just 291 yards and 15 first downs in the narrow loss. This team has a lot of talent and could be primed for an upset against a Minnesota team that's not mentally prepared.

Something to consider: Miami already has a strong track record against the Big Ten (4-1 ATS the past five seasons). And now Treadwell takes over after serving as the OC at Michigan State the past three seasons so he knows the Big Ten well.

FCS SE Missouri State at Purdue - 12:00 PM EST, Big Ten Network

FCS SE Missouri State: 0-1 SU
PU: 1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS - Last week: at Rice, L 22-24

Purdue lost its first game of the season in heartbreaking fashion against a strong Rice team last week. Rice blocked a short field goal attempt on the final play to seal the deal. Purdue gets (what should be) a clean-up game here against FCS SE Missouri State.

QB Robert Marve has been cleared to play this week since recovering from a knee injury. Caleb TerBush has filled in nicely and remains #1 on the depth chart but Marve will see some snaps.

FCS South Carolina State at Indiana - 3:30 PM EST, Big Ten Network

FCS SC St: 1-1 SU
IU: 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS - Last week: vs. Virginia, L 31-34

Indiana has suffered two tough losses to start the Kevin Wilson era, but should finally get win number one this weekend against FCS South Carolina State. IU was down by 20 points early in the 2nd half against Virginia last week. They made a huge comeback, scoring 28 unanswered points and actually took an eight point lead into the final minutes. The Hoosiers then squandered that eight-point lead and managed to lose to the Cavaliers by three points.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33372 Followers:38
09/15/2011 06:38 PM

LSU at Mississippi State

September 15, 2011

No. 3 LSU at No. 25 Mississippi State (+3)
Thursday, Sept. 15
8:00 pm ET
Over-Under 50

Well, my nice start to the Thursday night season certainly went south in a hurry. Honestly, I know some 8th grade teams down here in South Florida who I’m sure could defend as well as Arizona did last week against Oklahoma State. Granted, you have to give the Cowboys and their offense a good bit of credit but the Wildcats – particularly in the 1st half – offered little to no resistance. And here I thought Mike Stoops was a solid defensive coach. Oh well, let’s limp into Week 3…

Speaking of a lack of defense, I’m guessing we’ll see some this Thursday night when the Bayou Bengals of Louisiana State University – better known as the LSU Tigers – pay a visit to Starkville, Mississippi to play the Mississippi State Bulldogs. LSU opened the season by facing off against Oregon – a team which had averaged 47 points a game in 2010. All the Tigers did was stifle the Ducks, holding them to 13 points through the first three quarters en route to an impressive 40-27 win.

However, despite the impressive start for the LSU defense, all the talk around the Tigers continues to center on its offense. QB Jordan Jefferson is still suspended indefinitely for his role in a fight this past August and WR Russell Shepard will miss this game while serving the end of a suspension for an NCAA rules infraction.

All that drama hasn’t seemed to slow down Coach Les Miles and crew, in fact they appear to thrive in it. Of course, it helps to have a very capable backup QB when you have to suspend your starter indefinitely. And LSU has just that with senior Jarrett Lee. If that name sounds familiar it’s because Lee has been getting meaningful snaps – for a multitude of reasons – since he was a redshirt freshman in 2008. While Jefferson is unquestionably the better athlete and adds another dimension with his running ability, Lee is the better passer.

Combining Lee’s arm with RB's Michael Ford and Spencer Ware and the LSU offense, which returns 8 starters on offense looks awfully strong.

There was a time when Mississippi State was known for their defense. But if last Saturday is any indication – and it most certainly should be – then those days are long gone. Just a week after Auburn needed a five star magic act to escape their home opener against Utah State, the Bulldogs traveled to the Plains as almost a touchdown favorite. The thinking was pretty simple: Clearly Auburn is a shell of its former self and Coach Dan Mullen is ready to take Mississippi State to the next level.

And while Auburn may indeed be significantly worse than last year, they certainly didn’t miss a beat against Mississippi State as Mike Dyer rushed for 150 yards and two touchdowns and Barrett Trotter – attempting to fill Cam Newton’s huge shoes – threw for 146 yards and two more touchdowns as Auburn held off a late rally for the win.

The loss has many reevaluating Mississippi State and the performance of their defense can’t be a positive sign for Dan Mullen as he contemplates how to slow down LSU. The good news is with a pair of seniors - quarterback Chris Relf and running back Vick Ballard – the Bulldogs do have a pair of dangerous offensive weapons. Behind that duo, which includes nine returning starters on offense, Mississippi State has averaged 321 rushing yards per game this season, good for sixth in the nation.

However, it goes without saying that Mississippi State hasn’t lined up against a defense with the skills of LSU. And it can’t help that LSU recently prepared, and was obviously very prepared, for Oregon, a team with a spread offense featuring a mobile QB (Darron Thomas) and talented RB (LaMichael James) just like the Bulldogs will present.

A Thursday night deep in SEC country – the conference opener for both teams and home opener for Miss. St. – should present a rowdy scene in Starkville. Mullin will need everyone of those cowbells ringing in order to spur his team to a win.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33372 Followers:38
09/15/2011 06:39 PM

LSU seeks 12th straight win over Miss. State

LSU TIGERS (2-0, 0-0 in SEC)

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: LSU -3, Total: 48.5

Nationally-ranked SEC West rivals square off Thursday night in Starkville when No. 3 LSU travels to No. 25 Mississippi State. The Tigers have owned this series since 1992, going 18-1 SU (15-4 ATS), including 11 straight SU victories over the Bulldogs.

MSU is hungry to get back into the win column after a 41-34 loss to Auburn as QB Chris Relf was tackled just inches short of the goal line on the game’s last play. LSU has one of the best defenses among FBS schools, but MSU is fifth in the nation in offense (588 YPG) thanks to Vick Ballard’s 301 rushing yards and 4 TD in two games. The Bulldogs outgained the Tigers in each of the past two meetings, but have been done in by nine turnovers in those pair of defeats. With LSU starting QB Jordan Jefferson still suspended and backup QB Jarrett Lee currently nursing an ankle injury, now is the time for MISSISSIPPI STATE to notch its first series win this century.

The FoxSheets give two more reasons to back the Bulldogs.

MISSISSIPPI ST is 11-2 ATS (84.6%, +8.8 Units) after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games since 1992. The average score was MISSISSIPPI ST 28.4, OPPONENT 17.4 - (Rating = 1*).

Les Miles is 15-30 ATS (33.3%, -18.0 Units) against conference opponents as the coach of LSU. The average score was LSU 27.3, OPPONENT 21.5 - (Rating = 1*).

In addition to Jefferson, the Tigers have two more suspended players, WR Russell Shepard (480 yards from scrimmage last year) and LB Josh Johns. Lee played much better in last week’s 49-3 win over Northwestern State, completing 9-of-10 passes for 133 yards and a touchdown. This was quite an improvement from his opening game against Oregon when he connected on just 10-of-22 attempts for 98 yards and a score. The Tigers have not done a great job rushing the football in trying to replace departed RB Stevan Ridley. LSU has averaged 3.8 yards per carry on the season, gaining 350 yards on 93 carries. However, the Tigers run defense has been quite a force, holding their opponents to just 91 yards on 55 carries this year (1.7 YPC), which includes limiting the nation’s reigning rushing king LaMichael James to 54 yards on 18 carries.

Last year in Baton Rouge, the Bulldogs outgained the Tigers, but threw 5 INT in a 29-7 loss. Relf threw two picks in only eight attempts before leaving the game with an injury. But Relf sure looks healthy this season, with 397 passing yards and 157 rushing yards in the first two games. The offensive line has done a nice job of protecting him, allowing only two sacks. But the line might have to function without senior LT James Carmon (leg) and C Quentin Saulsberry (sprained knee) who are both questionable after getting hurt in last week’s loss at Auburn. The O-line has allowed Ballard to gain 9.7 YPC. This average is second-best in the nation among all RBs with over 160 yards this year (Cincinnati’s Isaiah Pead has 11.5 YPC).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33372 Followers:38
09/15/2011 06:45 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
09/10/11 42-­42-­0 50.00% -­2100 Detail
09/09/11 3-­1-­0 75.00% +­950 Detail
09/08/11 1-­1-­0 50.00% -­50 Detail
09/05/11 1-­1-­0 50.00% -­50 Detail
09/04/11 1-­1-­2 50.00% -­50 Detail
09/03/11 34-­16-­2 68.00% +­8200 Detail
09/02/11 3-­1-­0 75.00% +­950 Detail
09/01/11 7-­12-­0 36.84% -­3100 Detail
Totals 92-­75-­4 55.09% +4750

Thursday, September 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Louisiana State - 8:00 PM ET Mississippi State +3 500

Mississippi State - Under 49 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: