cnotes Posts:33072 Followers:38
09/04/2011 11:19 AM

SMU visits No. Texas A&M Sunday night


Kickoff: Sunday, 7:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas A&M -15.5, Total: 56.5

No. 8 Texas A&M is ready to show the world that it belongs in the SEC when it hosts former Southwest Conference foe SMU on Sunday night at Kyle Field. Earlier in the week, the Aggies announced they are leaving the Big 12 to join the SEC, although the SEC has made no comment as to its expansion plans, if any.

Texas A&M is stacked this year on both sides of the ball with 17 starters returning. This includes QB Ryan Tannehill, who led his team to six straight wins to close out the 2010 regular season. SMU’s great signal caller, Kyle Padron, also returns, but he will be missing his top receiver in Aldrick Robinson who had 1,301 yards and 14 TD last year. The Mustangs are trying not to have a repeat of the school’s last trip to College Station in 2005, which ended in a 66-8 defeat. This game won’t be nearly as lopsided, but expect TEXAS A&M to win comfortably in front of its rowdy home crowd.

This three-star FoxSheets trend gives another reason to pick the Aggies.

Play On - Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (TEXAS A&M) - good team from last season - outscored opponents by 7 or more points/game, with 8 defensive starters returning. (23-3 over the last 10 seasons.) (88.5%, +19.7 units. Rating = 3*).

June Jones’ run-and-shoot continues to work at SMU, as the Mustangs went 6-2 in Conference USA play. Padron (3,828 pass yds, 31 TD, 14 INT) is a rising star, but needs to help his team correct its minus-12 turnover margin. Padron will rely mostly on two strong inside receivers, Cole Beasley (1,060 rec yds) and Darius Johnson (845 rec yds). The ground game is also in good shape with TB Zach Line (1,494 rush yds, 6.1 YPC, 10 TD) running behind an all-senior O-line. Defensively, DEs Taylor Thompson (5.5 sacks) and Margus Hunt (45 tackles, 6.5 TFL) man the front line, while WLB Ja’Gared Davis (90 tackles, 9 sacks, 16 TFL) and MLB Taylor Reed (145 tackles) make plays all over the field. CB Richard Crawford (4 INT, 8 PD) leads three returnees in the adequate secondary.

Tannehill threw for 1,409 yards (235 YPG) with 11 TD and just 3 INT during the regular-season-ending win streak. His top two receivers, Jeff Fuller (72 rec, 1,066 yds, 12 TD) and Ryan Swope (72 rec, 825 yds, 4 TD) will help Tannehill continue to improve. But the heart of the offense is the dual rushing attack of Christine Michael (631 rush yds, 5.0 YPC, 4 TD), who suffered a broken leg in October, and Cyrus Gray, who filled in for Michael with seven straight 100-yard games and 10 TD to finish the season. Four starters return to the offensive line. The defense only lost three starters, but two of them were excellent in All-American OLB Von Miller and leading tackler LB Michael Hodges. However two strong LBs remain with senior ILB Garrick Williams (112 tackles, 5 TFL) and junior OLB Sean Porter (7 TFL, 6 PD). The secondary returns all four starters, but only ranked 89th in passing defense (234 YPG). Both CBs Coryell Judie and Dustin Harris had 4 INT last year, and both will be the key to slowing down the Mustangs’ run-and-shoot attack.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33072 Followers:38
09/04/2011 11:58 AM


Sunday, September 4

What bettors need to know: Marshall at West Virginia

Marshall Thundering Herd at West Virginia Mountaineers (-23.5, 55.5)

THE STORY: West Virginia has a new coach who's known for gun-slinging offense. Marshall has a second-year coach who played for WVU and goes by "Doc" Holliday. Last year the teams went to overtime in what was their closest game since 1911. What more can you ask for from this intrastate rivalry in wild West Virginia? To be fair, last season's 24-21 Mountaineers triumph was only the programs' 10th meeting all-time, and WVU has won all of them, but still, it sounds like a fun opening fight.


ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (2010: 9-4, 5-2 Big East): The Mountaineers have had their share of success in the post-Rich Rodriguez era, but only to a point. They've posted three consecutive 5-2 conference marks, but have been unable to close with bowl victories the past two seasons. WVU won its last four regular-season games in 2010, then flamed out against North Carolina State in a 23-7 Champs Sports Bowl defeat.

Bill Stewart was supposed to continue at the helm for this season, with Dana Holgorsen hired as his offensive coordinator and coach-in-waiting, but Stewart was forced out in June and Holgorsen took over. The preseason Big East favorites return junior QB Geno Smith, whose 24 TD passes last year (against only seven picks) were second-most in school history. Behind Smith, as many as seven running backs and fullbacks could see action in the opener, Holgorsen has said. Top receiver junior Tavon Austin caught 58 passes for 787 yards and eight TDs last year.

ABOUT MARSHALL (2010: 5-7, 4-4 C-USA): John "Doc" Holliday was on staff at WVU from 1979 to 1999, and was a candidate to succeed Rodriguez but wound up serving under Stewart as an associate coach. After suffering through a 1-6 start to his first head coaching season, the Thundering Herd rebounded to win four of their final five games.

Defense spurred the turnaround; Marshall allowed 35.6 points allowed over its first seven games and just 19.2 the last five. Marshall returns nine defensive starters. Senior end Vinny Curry (94 tackles, 12 sacks) is the C-USA preseason Defensive Player of the Year and one of four team captains, including two more senior defenders, safety Omar Brown and linebacker Tyson Gale. Senior left tackle Ryan Tillman is the other captain.

LINE MOVES: WVU opened as a 21.5-point home favorite and was bet up as high as -23.5. The totaled opened at 51 points and has climbed to as high as 56.5 with action on the Over.


1. Holgorsen has led prolific offenses at Oklahoma State, Houston and Texas Tech in recent years. Last season the Cowboys ranked third in total offense, jumping from 61st the previous year without Holgorsen, and OSU wide receiver Justin Blackmon garnered the Biletnikoff Award.

2. Holliday played 28 freshmen last season, with only Florida (31) putting more freshmen on the field at the FBS level.

3. West Virginia won back-to-back meetings in 1915 and 1923 by a combined 173-6 (92-6 and 81-0), and before last season's 24-21 OT victory the closest game was the first, a 17-15 Mountaineers win in 1911.


- Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
- Thundering Herd are 16-34-2 ATS in their last 52 road games.
- Mountaineers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 games as home favorites of 10.5 or greater.
- Under is 11-5 in Thundering Herd's last 16 road games.
- Under is 6-1 in Mountaineers' last seven games as favorites.

PREDICTION: West Virginia 55, Marshall 20 -- Holgorsen could have fun testing his offensive scheme and range of contributors in the opener. Plus the Mountaineers get to avenge their surprising loss to the Thundering Herd on the basketball court back in January.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33072 Followers:38
09/04/2011 12:00 PM


Sunday, September 4

Game of the day: SMU at Texas A&M

SMU Mustangs at Texas A&M Aggies (-15.5, 56.5)

THE STORY: The biggest, most important, zaniest season in a long time begins at Texas A&M, which enters the season ranked ninth and is expected to challenge No. 1 Oklahoma for the Big 12 Conference championship.

It may be the Aggies’ last shot at it, too, as Texas A&M is expected to leave the Big 12 for the Southeastern Conference. So it is fitting the Aggies begin the season against Southern Methodist, a former rival from the old Southwest Conference, which Texas A&M also left behind.

TV: FS Southwest.

ABOUT TEXAS A&M (9-4 in 2010): A mid-season quarterback change made all the difference for the Aggies last season. Fortunately, they didn’t have to make a change this fall as Ryan Tannehill returns after throwing for 1,600 yards and 13 touchdowns in six starts last season, as does leading receiver Jeff Fuller.

ABOUT SMU (7-7 in 2010): Two decades of clouds have finally broken for the Mustangs, who played in their second bowl game in a row last season. SMU would love to get a call from the Big 12 if Texas A&M leaves, so this is an opportunity for the kind of win that would help the Mustang’s argument.

LINE MOVES: Texas A&M opened as low as -15 and has stayed around that number for the most part. The total has also remained steady, opening at 56 points and being bet up to 57.5 before settling at 56.5.


1. SMU’s last game against a Big 12 team was a one-touchdown loss at Texas Tech last season. Its last game against Texas A&M was a 66-8 loss in 2005.

2. Texas A&M hasn’t lost to SMU since 1984 and is 9-0-1 in the last 10 meetings.

3. The Aggies begin the season in the top 10 for the first time since 1999, the year after they won the Big 12 championship.


- Mustangs are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as underdogs.
- Aggies are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games.
- Under is 8-3-1 in Mustangs' last 12 games as road underdogs.
- Under is 5-1 in Aggies' last six home games.

PREDICTION: Texas A&M 38, SMU 20 - The Tannehill-to-Fuller connection is too much for most teams, and SMU is no different. The Mustangs aren’t a pushover anymore, but the Aggies still have plenty to prove, even if they are in the top 10.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33072 Followers:38
09/04/2011 12:56 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/03/11 35-­16-­1 68.63% +­8150 Detail

09/02/11 3-­1-­0 75.00% +­950 Detail

09/01/11 7-­12-­0 36.84% -­3100 Detail

Totals 45-­29-­1 60.81% +6000

Sunday, September 4

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Marshall - 3:30 PM ET Marshall +23.5 500

West Virginia - Over 53.5 500

Southern Methodist - 7:30 PM ET Texas A&M -16 500

Texas A&M - Under 55.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33072 Followers:38
09/05/2011 09:10 AM

Miami Hurricanes At Maryland Terrapins NCAA Betting Preview

Most of the Miami Hurricanes will open the 2011 schedule by visiting the Maryland Terrapins on Monday in an early and key Atlantic Coast Conference duel. But the bigger story for bettors revolves around who will not be taking the field due to NCAA sanctions handed down on Tuesday.

Eight Hurricanes will miss the season opener, including starting quarterback Jacory Harris.

The game is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. (ET) and will be televised nationally on ESPN. Miami opened as a 5½-point favorite but it's Maryland who is currently listed as a 3-point favorite according to the Don Best odds screen with the total at 47.

New Miami head coach Al Golden has a big challenge ahead of him in his first year at the school, as 12 of his players overall accepted improper benefits from former booster Nevin Shapiro before he even got there. Eight of them will miss at least game, led by Harris and safety Ray Ray Armstrong, who will miss four games along with tight end Dyron Dye.

Defensive lineman Olivier Vernon received the harshest penalty and must sit out six games.

Sophomore Stephen Morris will replace Harris under center for the Hurricanes, and he saw action in six games last season when they finished a disappointing 7-6. Morris played in most of the team’s 33-17 Sun Bowl loss to Notre Dame and performed well in relief of Harris.

Miami was 2-4 in the games Morris played, but one of the two wins came against the Terrapins last November 6. Morris threw for a season-high 286 yards and tossed the game-winning touchdown pass to wide receiver Leonard Hankerson with 37 seconds left.

The Hurricanes ended their season with three losses, both straight up and against the spread, and the ‘under’ is 6-1-1 in their past eight.

Maryland is coming off a successful 9-4 campaign that ended with a 51-20 rout of East Carolina in the Military Bowl. The Terps finished 2-10 in '09 and sent Ralph Friedgen out as ACC Coach of the Year. Friedgen was fired following the game after serving at his alma mater for 10 seasons.

Former Connecticut head coach Randy Edsall takes over the reins of the program and did an outstanding job building up the Huskies from a Division I-AA team in 1998 to a Big East co-champion last year. Edsall was 74-70 at UConn overall and has 12 starters coming back at Maryland, five on offense and seven on defense.

Sophomore quarterback Danny O’Brien was the ACC Freshman of the Year for the Terps last season, throwing 22 touchdown passes and finishing fourth overall in the conference with a 134.5 rating. O’Brien will be without top target Torrey Smith, who was selected by the Baltimore Ravens in the second round of the NFL draft.

Maryland closed out last year covering six of seven games with the ‘over’ going 5-1-1 during that stretch.


Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33072 Followers:38
09/05/2011 09:13 AM

What bettors need to know
Miami Hurricanes at Maryland Terrapins:

Miami Hurricanes at Maryland Terrapins (-4, 46.5)

THE STORY: Miami will be without six starters and two reserves when it opens at Maryland on Monday. Quarterback Jacory Harris, linebacker Sean Spence, wideout Travis Benjamin and five others were suspended by the NCAA from one to six games for receiving impermissible benefits from former booster/convicted felon Nevin Shapiro.

The investigation has overshadowed the Miami coaching debut of Al Golden, formerly of Temple, and the Maryland coaching debut of Randy Edsall, formerly of UConn. With the senior Harris ineligible, dual-threat sophomore Stephen Morris will start at quarterback. Morris, who runs a 4.6 forty, nearly beat out Harris in camp.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Maryland -4

ABOUT MARYLAND (2010: 9-4, 5-3 ACC): Edsall has a ton of offensive talent to work with, led by QB Danny O’Brien (2,438 yards, 22 TDs, 8 INTs), and RBs Davin Meggett (720 yards) and D.J. Adams (11 TDs). The Terps ranked second in the ACC in scoring last season (32.2 points) and should be near the top again. LB Kenny Tate leads seven returning starters on defense.

ABOUT MIAMI (2010: 7-6, 5-3 ACC): Harris and Morris split first-string reps during camp. Morris played extensively at the end of last season, throwing for 1,240 yards in six games with seven touchdowns and nine interceptions. Due to the suspensions, Golden is listing eight true freshmen and five redshirt freshmen on his two-deep depth chart.


1. Edsall finished 8-5 or better in his last four seasons at UConn.

2. Miami's suspended players are not allowed to travel to the game but can continue practicing with the team.

3. Miami won last year’s meeting 26-20 in Coral Gables, Fla., on a last-minute TD throw from Morris.


The Hurricanes are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 conference games and 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.

The Terrapins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games.

The under is 6-1-1 in the 'Canes' last eight games.


Oddsmakers opened this game with the visiting Hurricanes favored by 6 to 5.5 points. The game was taken off the board following the news of Miami's player suspensions. Oddsmakers re-opened with the Terrapins favored by 3.5 points and most shops have moved up to Maryland -4.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33072 Followers:38
09/05/2011 09:14 AM

Tale of the tape: Miami at Maryland

Miami at Maryland (-4, 46.5)

The line

Maryland opened as a 4-point home underdog before the news of Miami’s suspensions came down. After learning eight Hurricanes were banned, including quarterback Jacory Harris and Sean Spence, oddsmakers moved Maryland to a 4-point favorite. The total is down to 46.5 after opening at around 48.


Backed by a balanced offense, Miami put up 421 yards and 26.2 points per game last season. The Hurricanes averaged 5.8 yards per play despite a completion percentage of 53. With the quarterback situation still up in the air, the ‘Canes will pound the running game again this season. They averaged 182.5 yards per game on the ground last season, piling up five yards per rushing play. Two areas they’ll look to improve this season are red zone efficiency and discipline. They scored 76 percent of the time inside the 20 last year and were whistled for 72 penalty yards per game.

With Danny O’Brien taking the snaps last season, the Terrapins piled up 32.2 points per game. O’Brien was efficient, firing for more than 2,400 yards with 22 touchdowns and eight interceptions. The Terps averaged 7.3 yards per pass and completed around 57 percent of their attempts, while allowing 22 sacks on the season. Maryland’s running game put up about 138 yards per game, averaging 4.1 yards per attempt.


Last year’s Hurricanes gave up just 150 yards per game through the air – good for third in the nation – while also tying for sixth overall with 21 interceptions. Miami also did a great job getting after the quarterback with 37 sacks last season (14th in FBS). That helped this unit allow 342 yards and 22.4 points per game, while holding its opposition to fewer than five yards per play on the year. The Hurricanes really buckled down on third down, allowing offenses to convert only 35 percent of those attempts.

Maryland stuffed the run last season, allowing only 3.6 yards per rush and 134 yards per game on the ground. That helped them yield only 23.8 points per game (377 yards). The Terps finished last season with 28 sacks and 19 interceptions, while averaging two takeaways per contest. Maryland’s opposition scored only 74 percent of the time when they entered the red zone

Special teams

Maryland hit 77.8 percent of its field goal attempts last season (47th in FBS) and was 48th in the nation averaging 41.7 yards per punt. The Terps really struggled with kickoff returns, managing just 18.3 yards, but were much better returning punts. They averaged 16.9 yards per punt return, which ranked them third in the nation.

Miami’s punt return game was terrible at 4.5 yards per return, though the kickoff return numbers were a bit better at 19.7 yards per attempt. The Hurricanes converted 76.5 percent of their field goals, but attempted just 17 on the year while also missing three extra point tries. They averaged 44 yards per punt (41.4 yards net).

Word on the street

"We're not really focusing who's going to play there, who's not. It's going to be the same scheme. They're going to be athletic. They're going to be fast. They're going to be aggressive. They have playmakers." – Maryland quarterback Danny O’Brien on facing the shorthanded Hurricanes.

"We're playing a lot of freshmen under the lights in a big setting. …Ultimately, you've got to cut the cord and let them go do it." – Hurricanes coach Al Golden.

Final score prediction

Maryland 27 Miami 17

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33072 Followers:38
09/05/2011 12:41 PM

Las Vegas Betting Notes

September 5, 2011

Even though there was a nice mix of favorites and underdogs winning on the first weekend of college football, the Las Vegas sports books found themselves either a small winner or break even for the day. Usually when the favorites only go 20-18 on the weekend, the books can expect to do very well. But on Saturday it was more a matter of what favored teams covered allowing the public to have their share of success.

“Bettors did very well on a few of the high profile teams with large points spreads and the parlays between those teams negated what could have been a really good day for us,” said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne. “The combination of Oklahoma, Ohio State, Alabama and Stanford were a popular choice among the public and all four covered the spread quite easily.”

The two late feature games on Saturday with Boise State-Georgia and Oregon-LSU were the most heavily bet games of the weekend, but didn’t have much of an impact to the bottom line.

"The public split with those games," said Las Vegas Hilton Super Book director Jay Kornegay. “The action was great on each, but the majority of bettors took the sides of Boise State and Oregon. Even with all the large handle on those games, we really wouldn’t have been hurt too much, nor won too much, with any of the possible outcomes because the games were pretty evenly balanced.“

One of the best decisions of the first week was UNLV covering 35 ½-points at Wisconsin on Thursday night, despite the Badgers appearing to having the game in control from the start in their 51-17 win. The early line from last month was Wisconsin -32, but by the start of last week -- when most of the action was taken until kickoff, that number was long gone.

Friday night’s spectacular Baylor-TCU game was also good for the sports books with four-point underdog Baylor winning outright 50-48. Not only was TCU a popular play with the public, but surprisingly, so was the UNDER. It’s almost a natural reaction for recreational bettors to bet the OVER of any sporting event, but the total in this game dropped from 56 to 52 ½ by kickoff spurred by both sharp and small money.

Another good decision for the sports books was Auburn not covering 23 ½-points against Utah State in their 42-38 home win, a game that the Aggies had controlled all afternoon but allowed two touchdowns in the final three minutes to lose. For Kornegay, he was rooting for the upset not only because it was a small team from the WAC beating an SEC team on their home turf -- not to mention the defending national champions, but because it would have wiped out all kinds on money-line parlays.

“We get a lot of play on money-line parlays with the big favorites in college football and that upset would have wiped out quite a few on the day because Auburn was linked to a lot of them, “ said Kornegay who had Auburn listed as a -2200 favorite with 14/1 odds given on Utah State to win straight up.

After everything was tallied for the sports books, the day was kind of a wash.

“It was give and take all weekend, a grind.” said Kornegay. “The handle was great, the crowd was pumped that football was finally back, but overall, we didn’t have any major decisions.“

Lightning Strikes Down Two Games

Weather played a factor in two games where action was refunded. Michigan beat Western Michigan 34-10 on Saturday and it looked to be an easy cover for the masses laying 14 ¼-points, but with 1:27 left in the third quarter the game was stopped because of a lightning storm that had moved into the area. Both coaches agreed for the safety of the fans to just call the game final and evacuate the 110,056 fans from the stadium.

The same story occurred Sunday night in Morgantown where West Virginia beat Marshall 34-13, but the game was halted with 14:35 left in the fourth quarter after four hours of delays. West Virginia was a 23-point favorite and appeared to be on their way to a cover having gone on a 14-0 run when the game was stopped.

In Nevada sports books, the rule is that a game must be played at least 55 of the schedule 60 minutes for action, therefore making all tickets on these games a refund. Bettors who laid the points with Michigan are sure to be a little upset while those with Western Michigan tickets appear to have a gotten a gift. There are also going to be several unclaimed refunds from bettors just because they don’t know the rule or they saw the score figuring they lost. After 90 days, all those unclaimed funds go to the casino bottom line.

Another game was almost stopped on Saturday, but each team agreed to weather the storm. Notre Dame was one of the more popular plays of the day in their home game against South Florida. Ticket count ratios were high on the Irish and the only thing keeping the game at minus-10 ½, despite the sports books being long on that side, was respecting the sharp plays made on South Florida at +11. Many of the sports books chose to be on the side of the sharps in this one refusing to go back to +11, despite mounting risk.

For all the Notre Dame supporters, they almost got a gift wish from Touchdown Jesus as lightning forced two separate delays in the game totaling over three hours. The delays killed all the momentum South Florida had as they waited in the locker room at halftime for over two hours.

Notre Dame played like a much better team in the second half outscoring the Bulls 20-7 to at least cover the half-time line (-8) for their supporters, but still eventually lost the game 23-20. The real gift from Touchdown Jesus for Notre Dame bettors would have been to have the game cut short to get a refund like the few Western Michigan bettors got.

Pac-12 Ratings to Drop

Despite going 8-4 over the weekend, the Pac-12 took a major blow in their conference ratings with their four losses. UCLA lost to Conference-USA’s Houston, Oregon lost to the SEC’s LSU, Colorado lost to the WAC’s Hawaii and the biggest blow of all came when Oregon State lost at home to Sacramento State from the mighty Big Sky. The Beavers will also get a loss to the Big-10 as well this week when they lose at Wisconsin on Saturday.

Even USC’s 19-17 win as a 24-point home favorite against the Big-10’s Minnesota won’t rate favorably for the conference.

It’s early in the season, but when those BCS computers start churning out numbers at the end of the year to decide who plays for the big money, a team like Stanford could get the shaft because of their affiliation with the conference and its members poor play against others

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33072 Followers:38
09/05/2011 12:52 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/04/11 1-­1-­2 50.00% -­100 Detail

09/03/11 34-­16-­2 68.00% +­8150 Detail

09/02/11 3-­1-­0 75.00% +­950 Detail

09/01/11 7-­12-­0 36.84% -­3100 Detail

Totals 45-­30-­4 60.00% +5900


FMonday, September 5

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 8:00 PM ET Maryland -3.5 500

Maryland - Under 45.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: