cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
08/31/2011 07:59 PM

Offensive Analysis

Last week, we broke down the teams with the most and least returning starters on the defensive side of the ball. This week, it’s time to look at the offense from this perspective – one of my favorite handicapping angles to use during the first couple of weeks of the season. (access my 2011 returning starters chart here)

The logic behind this angle is fairly straightforward: The team with a greater number of returning starters should have an advantage in the early part of the season over its opponent, who have more players still learning to deal with the pressure, expectations, and performance that comes with being a starter in Division 1-A (or FBS) college football.

Offensive Units with the Most Returning Starters in 2011

Vanderbilt: Returning starters on offense - 11. Seeing an 11 here, one would assume that Vandy returns their entire starting group on offense. And that’s true…and false. The good news is it’s mostly true but there are a few players missing from 2010 who started quite a few games – C Joey Bailey as an example. But overall this unit should be much better. The offensive line will be much better due to experience and should pave the way for RB’s Warren Norman and Zac Stacy. QB is a question mark. Yeah, Larry Smith is back again and he has started in the past but been far from productive.

Texas A&M: Returning starters on offense - 10. Last season, Jerrod Johnson’s shoulder injury appeared to sink the Aggies. However, it provided the opportunity for QB Ryan Tannehill to step in and play and the team ripped off six straight behind him. Now a senior, Tannehill returns ask the unquestioned starter and has talent all around him. Not only is the running game quite capable with RB Cyrus Gray working behind an experienced line but Tannehill has lots of weapons to throw to. This unit has averaged over 30 points a game the last two years and I see that streak extending to three this season.

Tulsa: Returning starters on offense - 10. Everyone knows about electric offenses in programs such as Boise and Houston but the Golden Hurricanes don’t take a backseat to many when it comes to production these last few years. In fact, in three of the last four years this offense has averaged over 40 points a game. With those type of numbers, it’s hard to ask for much more but I do expect this group to be better, mainly based on the fact that the offensive line returns completely intact and is comprised almost entirely of juniors and seniors. That should provide holes for backs and protection for the QB – much to the dismay of opposing defensive coordinators. Look out.

Louisiana-Monroe: Returning starters on offense - 10. Monroe opens with a brutal schedule, visiting FSU, TCU, and Iowa in three of their first four games. I expect them to take some lumps in those games but by the time their Sun Belt games starts, this team could provide some nice value – and that will mainly be because of their offense. The one glaring issue is the loss of RB Frank Goodin. However, Coach Todd Berry has installed a system where multiple players get a chance to run the ball – including QB Kolton Browning – so the loss won’t be as noticeable as on most teams. The real upside will come from an offensive line that returns a ton of experience. Start tuning into the Warhawks around the beginning of October.

Ball State: Returning starters on offense - 10. After averaging nearly 35 points a game in 2008, the Cardinals only returned 3 starters on offense and predictably, their production plummeted to 19.2 ppg in 2009. Despite the fact that entire group returned last season, the offense was only able to get marginally better, rising to 22 ppg. And again, this group returns almost everyone for 2011 and while I expect improvement, this unit won’t run away with too many games. The QB position will be up for grabs and other skill positions lack real promise but the offensive line should hold up their end of the bargain. Nothing to get too excited about here.

Southern Methodist: Returning starters on offense - 10. Lots of talent returning to Dallas for the Mustangs. One noticeable loss however will be that of WR Aldrick Robinson. Robinson was clearly the go to guy in 2010, racking up 1301 yards and 14 TDs along the way. No one player will up for that production but QB Kyle Padron will still have plenty of success and RB Zach Line should be a workhorse. This group should average about 28 ppg in 2011.

BYU: Returning starters on offense - 10. After five straight years averaging over 30 points a game, the Cougars came back to earth a bit in 2010, “only” averaging 26.2. With 10 starters returning this season, look for BYU to get back to business as usual in terms of offensive production. The offensive line is nearly intact and should provide lots of time for QB Jake Heaps to improve on his freshman campaign.

Offensive Units with the Least Returning Starters in 2011

Hawaii: Returning starters on offense - 3. There are a handful of college football programs synonymous with offensive production and Hawaii certainly falls into that category. 2008 & 2009 were a slight departure from that but the Warriors were back on track last year, averaging almost 40 points a game. That output will be tough to match this season despite the return of QB Bryant Moniz. The senior signal caller tossed a cool 39 TDs last year but will go under center behind a line which will have to replace four starters. Making matters worse, Moniz lost his top two targets from last year as well as the top two rushers. Yes, Hawaii will again figure out a way to be productive on offense, but this unit will clearly take a step back this season.

Louisville: Returning starters on offense - 3. I’m a big fan of coach Charlie Strong and no question his Louisville program is headed in the right direction but I have a feeling any success for this team in 2011 will stem from their defense. Not only will they be breaking in a new QB but the offensive line will be very young. Look for Victor Anderson, a senior running back with some starting experience, to be the face of this unit.

Memphis: Returning starters on offense - 3. This one could be really ugly. If there was ever a case for a team being better off that it doesn’t have starters returning, this could be it. After all, Memphis only averaged 14.1 points a contest in 2010, scoring more than 20 points in just two games. The good news is there will be fresh faces everywhere this season. It won’t add up to much better production for the 2011 campaign but should at least put the program on the right track for success in future years.

Texas Christian: Returning starters on offense - 3. The past four seasons in Ft. Worth have seen steady progress from the Horned Frogs offense. From 26.1 ppg in 2007 all the way to 41.6 in 2011. Replacing starters all across this unit – and especially QB Andy Dalton – will be a tough task and the production will certainly head south. That said, coach Gary Patterson hasn’t had all his success just on the strength of his defense. The good news is with Ed Wesley back at RB, there is some potential for the ground attack. That will largely depend on how quickly Patterson can get his new offensive line to gel.

Auburn: Returning starters on offense - 3. Needless to say, it was a special year for Auburn in 2010 – especially on offense. Led by QB Cam Newton, the Tigers averaged nearly 42 points a game on their run to the title. With the clear majority of that unit gone this season – especially Netwon – it’s going to be a much different story. RB Michael Dyer showed how special he was as a freshman in 2010 but that was behind a talented line and with defenses focusing on Newton. Neither will help him this year and I see Auburn’s offensive production to be cut in half – or more – from last year.

Texas-El Paso: Returning starters on offense - 2. The good news is the Miners get to open 2011 against Stony Brook. Against the Sea Wolves, I think UTEP will be able to rack up some points. Unfortunately, after that layup it will get considerably more difficult for coach Mike Price. And that’s not necessarily saying the competition will be all that good, it’s just going to be a struggle all year on offense, especially with a completely rebuilt offensive line. The good news is at the end of this year UTEP will have some nice experience to build on for 2012.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
08/31/2011 07:59 PM

Notre Dame opens season vs. South Florida


Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Notre Dame -10, Total: 46.5

Notre Dame opens its BCS Bowl-hopeful season against Big East contender South Florida. This marks the first ever meeting between these two schools. South Florida is really an underrated program with 42 wins in the past five seasons, eight more than Notre Dame has.

USF’s rushing offense is going to be excellent this year with returning junior Demetris Murray (6 total TD, 4.4 YPC), and bulked-up transfers Darrell Scott (Colorado) and Dontae Aycock (Auburn). The key to USF hanging around in South Bend is for returning QB B.J. Daniels to make good decisions. The Bulls were 17th in the nation in total defense (318 YPG) and also have the depth in the secondary to contain Notre Dame star wideout Michael Floyd. The Irish will win this game, but not by double-digits. The pick is SOUTH FLORIDA.

The FoxSheets provide this four-star trend in support of the Bulls.

Play Against - Any team (NOTRE DAME) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight spread covers, team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%) playing a team that had a winning record. (23-2 since 1992.) (92%, +20.8 units. Rating = 4*).

The Bulls are coming off an 8-5 season, but they were very fortunate with the final four wins coming by a total of 12 points. Daniels (11 TD, 13 INT) needs to improve in a big way for head coach Skip Holtz to opt to throw the football more. The defense returns six starters to a unit that finished among the top 25 in the nation in scoring defense (20.0 PPG), rushing defense (126 YPG) and passing defense (192 YPG).

A 7-2 finish to 2010 gives the Irish momentum for 2011. QB Dayne Crist (2,033 pass yds, 15 TD, 7 INT) is fully healed from his ruptured patella tendon and was named the starter late in the preseason. Star WR Michael Floyd (79 rec, 1,025 yds, 12 TD) was re-instated to the team in August after initially being suspended for driving under the influence. TB Cierre Wood (603 rush yds) should be able to gain some yards on the ground behind a solid offensive line. On defense, the Irish front four needs to do a better job pressuring the quarterback. However, the LBs are excellent, especially ILB Manti Te’o (133 tackles, 9.5 TFL) and OLB Darius Fleming (5.5 sacks).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
08/31/2011 08:00 PM

Trending: College Football non-conference games

With the month of September consisting primarily of non-conference games, we studied how current members of the six BCS conferences have fared out of conference over the past three regular seasons both ATS and against the Total. We have included Nebraska in the Big Ten stats and Colorado and Utah in the Pac-10 stats. We did not include bowl games in our study.
Despite being ridiculed in recent years, ACC schools have been the most reliable ATS, with the Big East and Big Ten bringing up the rear:
Conf. ATS Pct.
ACC 69-52 57%
Big 12 58-48 55%
Pac-10 59-50 54%
SEC 65-63 51%
Big East 50-54 48%
Big Ten 62-67 48%

As for totals, members of the Pac-10 have been a fairly solid OVER play, while Big East schools have been involved in the highest percentage of UNDERS:
Conf. O-U Over Pct.
Pac-10 60-42 59%
SEC 63-49 56%
ACC 52-48 52%
Big 12 45-50 47%
Big Ten 50-64 44%
Big East 39-53 42%

As for the best teams ATS, 11 have covered the number in at least two-thirds of their non-conference tilts:
Team Conf. W-L Pct.
Alabama SEC 9-2 82%
California Pac-10 7-2 78%
Oklahoma St. Big 12 8-3 73%
Boston College ACC 7-3 70%
North Carolina ACC 7-3 70%
Virginia ACC 7-3 70%
Florida SEC 7-3 70%
Ole Miss SEC 7-3 70%
Louisville Big East 9-4 69%
UCLA Pac-10 6-3 67%
Georgia Tech ACC 4-2 67%

There are 10 teams that are below 40% ATS in this study:
Team Conf. W-L Pct.
Rutgers Big East 1-10 9%
LSU SEC 2-8 20%
Illinois Big Ten 3-8 27%
Northwestern Big Ten 3-7 30%
Kansas St. Big 12 3-7 30%
Mississippi St. SEC 3-7 30%
Clemson ACC 3-6 33%
Tennessee SEC 4-8 33%
Auburn SEC 4-7 36%
Washington St. Pac-10 3-5 38%

As for totals, there are 11 teams who have hit the OVER in two-thirds or more of their non-conference games over the last three seasons:
Team Conf. O-U Over Pct.
Virginia ACC 7-1 88%
Ole Miss SEC 7-1 88%
Duke ACC 6-1 86%
California Pac-10 6-1 86%
Washington Pac-10 7-2 78%
Oregon Pac-10 6-2 75%
Utah Pac-10 8-3 73%
Virginia Tech ACC 7-3 70%
Oklahoma St. Big 12 7-3 70%
Maryland ACC 6-3 67%
Georgia Tech ACC 4-2 67%

The following 9 teams have all been part of the UNDER in at least two-thirds of their games:
Team Conf. O-U Over Pct.
Boston College ACC 1-8 11%
Rutgers Big East 1-7 13%
Arizona St. Pac-10 1-4 20%
Penn St. Big Ten 2-7 22%
Iowa Big Ten 2-7 22%
Miami-FL ACC 2-7 22%
LSU SEC 3-6 33%
Minnesota Big Ten 3-6 33%
Missouri Big 12 3-6 33%

While this ammunition should arm you for much of September, here are a few games in Week 1 with multiple factors pointing in the same direction:

Thursday, September 1
Wake Forest (40% Over) at Syracuse (35% Over)

Saturday, September 3
Northwestern (30% ATS, 38% Over) at Boston College (70% ATS, 11% Over)

Minnesota (33% Over) at USC (40% Over)

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
08/31/2011 08:00 PM

BYU favored on the road at Ole Miss


Kickoff: Saturday, 4:45 p.m. EDT
Line: BYU -3, Total: 55.5

The BYU Cougars begin life as an independent when they travel to Ole Miss to open the 2011 season. Both schools are trying to bounce back from subpar seasons. BYU had four straight years of double-digit wins from 2006 to 2009, but was a mediocre 7-6 in 2010. The Rebels followed up consecutive 9-4 seasons with a 4-8 dud last year.

BYU’s offense remains mostly intact, with just one starter gone. However, this offense didn’t do very much against good teams, failing to reach 20 points in six different games. The Cougars averaged a paltry 18.0 PPG in six road contests, or 11.8 PPG when you discount their 49-point performance at 3-9 Colorado State. Ole Miss has named West Virginia transfer Barry Brunetti as its starting signal caller. The dual-threat quarterback is explosive and is also operating behind a top-notch offensive line. But for the Rebels to be successful this year, Brunetti’s best option is to hand the ball to Brandon Bolden who rushed for 14 TD last year. The Rebels are 9-2 ATS in non-conference games over the past three seasons, and are a strong play at home, going 13-8 ATS (62%) in their past 21 games in Oxford. The pick is OLE MISS.

Despite last year’s offensive struggles away from home, the Cougars will play five tough road games this year (Ole Miss, Texas, Oregon St., TCU, Hawaii). Their success will lie with their talented offensive trio of QB Jake Heaps (2,316 pass yds, 15, TD, 9 INT), RB JJ Di Luigi (1,397 total yds, 5.2 YPC, 9 TD) and WR Cody Hoffman (527 rec yds, 7 TD). The defense is adequate, but a pass-rushing threat needs to emerge to take pressure off a secondary with three new starters this year. LB Brandon Ogletree (76 tackles) leads a quality linebacker corps that is the strength of this unit.

RB Brandon Bolden (976 rush yds, 6.0 YPC, 14 TD) has had a tremendous preseason and is ready to carry this team on his back. He’s hoping Brunetti can play well enough to prevent defenses from stacking the box. Although Brunetti will start on Saturday, drop-back passer and JUCO transfer Zack Stoudt will also play against BYU. WR Melvin Harris (408 rec yds) is a quality receiver, but other targets need to emerge in this passing game. The defense gets a nice boost with the return of DE Kentrell Lockett (5 sacks, 10 TFL in ‘09) who missed 2010 with a knee injury. This will help offset the spring losses of LBs D.T. Shackelford (knee) and Clarence Jackson (dismissal after arrest). The pass defense (246 YPG, 103rd in nation) also needs serious work, as only one returnee had an interception last year (Charles Sawyer, 2 INT).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
08/31/2011 08:01 PM

Longhorns open 2011 campaign vs. Rice


Kickoff: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas -24, Total: 55.5

Texas tries to put last season’s debacle in the past when it hosts a Rice team that usually provides little challenge to the Longhorns. The Owls have dropped 11 straight games to Texas, losing by an average score of 44 to 14. They have been outscored 161-34 in their past three trips to Austin and haven’t won in the state’s capital since 1965, losing 22 straight road meetings.

There are a lot of question marks with the Longhorns after last year’s 2-7 SU finish to the season. With new offensive and defensive coordinators, and the same mistake-prone starting QB Garrett Gilbert, there figure to be plenty of growing pains. The Owls do not have that big of an adjustment period returning the majority of its starters, including the entire offensive line that helped Rice average 50 more rushing YPG in 2010 than it did a year prior. Texas will win this football game, but it won’t be of the typical blowout variety. Expect RICE to control the clock (29:04 possession time last year versus Texas) and keep the final margin under three touchdowns.

The FoxSheets provide another reason to back the Owls.

TEXAS is 5-14 ATS (26.3%, -10.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TEXAS 34.5, OPPONENT 20.5.

The Rice offense begins with talented sophomore QB Taylor McHargue (63% comp. rate, 11 TD, 9 INT), who battled a shoulder injury as a freshman, but led his team to victories over East Carolina and UAB to close out last season. He doesn’t have the greatest receiving corps, but McHargue does have three targets standing 6-foot-5 or taller in TEs Luke Wilson (425 rec yds, 3 TD) and Taylor Cook, and TE-turned-WR Vance McDonald (396 rec yds, 8 TD). Talented TB Sam McGuffie (883 rush yds, 384 rec yds, 9 total TD) will get the bulk of the carries.

The Owls defense is still a work in progress after ranking second-to-last in passing (304 YPG) and 114th in scoring (38.5 PPG). Rice is expected to be much more aggressive, after a paltry 14-sack, 6-INT season. Improved line play is vital to help the secondary, which returns three starters, but will miss FS Travis Bradshaw (76 tackles) who suffered a cracked vertebrae in August camp which ended his career.

Co-offensive coordinators Major Applewhite and Bryan Harsin (Boise State) are expected to infuse new life into the offense that didn’t score more than 22 points in any Big 12 game last year. The Longhorns turned the ball over 30 times and were one of five FBS teams with a minus-1 TO margin per game. Junior QB Garrett Gilbert was able to keep his starting job after ranking 95th in the nation in passing efficiency. Leading WR James Kirkendoll and three O-Line starters are gone, but the ground game should improve with seniors Cody Johnson (592 rush yds, 6 TD) and Fozzy Whittaker (351 rush yds, 2 TD) leading the way.

New defensive coordinator Manny Diaz replaces Will Muschamp and will put his players in position to attack and create turnovers. MLB Emmanuel Acho (79 tackles, 8.5 TFL) and WLB Keenan Robinson (105 tackles) are both stars. The secondary is supposed to be a strength of the team despite losing two starting corners from a unit that had only eight interceptions last year.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
08/31/2011 08:01 PM

USC heavily favored to beat Minnesota

at USC TROJANS (0-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: USC -20.5, Total: 51.5

USC looks for a resounding home win to start its season hosting a Minnesota team with plenty of new faces. Jerry Kill is the new head coach of the Golden Gophers who started 1-9 last year before winning their final two games. USC won eight games, but were a mediocre 5-4 in conference play.

In addition to a new coaching staff, Minnesota is also adjusting to new QB MarQueis Gray who played wide receiver last year when Adam Weber was under center. Gray is much more mobile than Weber, but he has quite a challenge against an opportunistic USC defense that will likely improve with eight starters returning. Trojans QB Matt Barkley has plenty of experience, and is 7-0 with 258 pass YPG, 14 TD and 6 INT in non-conference play in his career. The pick here is USC to win and cover the hefty spread.

Kill moves up north from Northern Illinois where he guided the Huskies to three straight bowl berths. He has been impressed with Gray in the preseason, despite Gray’s lack of success in brief QB duty in his career, going 8-for-23 for 86 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. Gray does have reliable targets to throw to in WR Da’Jon McKnight (750 rec yds, 10 TD) and TE Eric Lair (526 rec yds). For the Gophers to stay competitive in this game, they have to establish a ground game with Duane Bennett (529 rush yds, 4.3 YPC). This strategy didn’t work against USC last year, as Bennett gained just six yards on seven carries and the Gophers finished the game (a 32-21 home loss) with 83 yards on 37 rushes (2.2 YPC). With four starters gone from the offensive line, Minnesota could struggle running the football.

Another area the Gophers need to improve upon is pressuring the QB. They had nine total sacks last season, the fewest among all FBS schools. New defensive coordinator Tracy Clays has implemented a more aggressive scheme to try to create more turnovers. MLB Gary Tinsley (90 tackles, 9.5 TFL) is the team’s best defensive player, but the Gophers also benefit from the return of DB Kim Royston (76 tackles in 2009) who missed last year with a broken leg.

The Trojans are in good shape with their passing game under Barkley and reliable WR Robert Woods (792 rec yds, 6 TD). However, the rushing attack is a different story. The team’s leading ground gainer from last year, Marc Tyler (913 rush yds), is suspended for the season opener after two alcohol-related incidents plus some foolish comments to TMZ. The bulk of the rushing workload against Minnesota will fall to and sophomore Dillon Baxter (4.3 YPC) and junior Curtis McNeal who was academically ineligible last year. The Trojans defense allowed 400 YPG (84th in nation) and gave up 32+ points in six games. But eight starters are back, including four really good ones -- DE Nick Perry (4 sacks), LB Devon Kennard (72 tackles), S T.J. McDonald (89 tackles, 3 INT) and CB Nickell Robey (4 INT).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
09/01/2011 06:46 PM

No. 3 Oregon clashes with No. 4 LSU Saturday

vs. LSU TIGERS (0-0)

Cowboys Stadium - Arlington, TX
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Oregon -1.5, Total: 55.5

Two of the top-five teams in the land square off in Arlington, TX for an enormous opening-week showdown when No. 3 Oregon takes on No. 4 LSU. Both programs have had a tumultuous offseason with legal troubles dominating the headlines. The Tigers are forced to start second-string QB Jarrett Lee on Saturday night with starter Jordan Jefferson suspended indefinitely after being arrested for his role in an Aug. 19 bar brawl. LSU starting WR Russell Shepard is also suspended for an NCAA rules violation.

Oregon has also had its share of newsworthy events, with allegations of improper recruiting methods and star CB Cliff Harris pulled over for driving 118 mph with starting QB Darron Thomas riding as a passenger. Harris, who scored four punt-return TD last year, is suspended for this game, but Thomas will start. On the field, the Ducks bring back arguably the best running back in the land in LaMichael James who led the nation in both rushing yards (1,731) and total touchdowns (24). He is the biggest reason Oregon led all FBS schools in points (47.0 PPG) and yards (531 YPG) last season. Although LSU’s defense, which returns seven starters, is always strong, this team actually had a weaker rush defense (137 YPG) than the Ducks last year (128 YPG). The Tigers are just 5-8 ATS in non-SEC games since 2008. The pick here is OREGON, which is 10-6 ATS in non-conference play over the past four years.

The FoxSheets provide another reason to side with the Ducks when the spread is low.

OREGON is 37-17 ATS (68.5%, +18.3 Units) when the line is +3 to -3 since 1992. The average score was OREGON 28.9, OPPONENT 26.1 - (Rating = 1*).

Although Oregon lost a bunch of starters from last year’s 12-1 team, nobody in the country has a better QB-RB duo than Thomas (2,881 pass yds, 30 TD, 9 INT; 486 rush yds, 5 TD) and James. However, wide receiver is a trouble spot without Jeff Maehl and the offensive line could struggle after losing three starters. The defensive line is also a question mark with only one starter returning in Terrell Turner (5.5 TFL), and the front seven will certainly miss monster LB Casey Matthews who is now in the NFL. Although Harris won’t play Saturday, the Ducks remain stacked in the secondary, led by playmaking FS John Boyett (5 INT, 9 PD, 78 tackles).

In addition to running an offense without Jefferson and Shepard, LSU will also be playing its first game under new offensive coordinator Greg Studrawa, last year’s offensive line coach. Steve Kragthorpe, former head coach at Louisville and Tulsa, was originally hired in the OC role, but could only be the school’s QB coach after being diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease. Lee has a good deal of experience under center, with 18 TD and 18 INT in his LSU career. He’ll also have the services of ultra-talented WR Reuben Randle (544 rec yds). TB Spencer Ware is expected to get most of the carries with Stevan Ridley now playing in the NFL. Ware rushed 10 times for 102 yards in the season-ending Cotton Bowl win over Texas A&M. The Tigers defense will miss departed stars CB Patrick Peterson and MLB Kelvin Sheppard, but DE Sam Montgomery (6 TFL in five games) and WLB Ryan Baker (7 sacks), lead a formidable front seven. The Tigers also boast two elite cornerbacks in Morris Claiborne (5 INT) and Tyrann Mathieu (7 PD).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
09/01/2011 06:48 PM

Boise State-Georgia clash Saturday night


Georgia Dome - Atlanta, GA
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Boise State -3.5, Total: 51

The conference may have changed from the WAC to Mountain West, but the same explosive Boise State offense remains. QB Kellen Moore will lead his fifth-ranked Broncos into a Week 1 marquee matchup with No. 19 Georgia at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta on Saturday night.

Despite being the favorites in what is basically a road game, Boise State has never beaten an SEC school in its program’s history. But the Broncos have never had a quarterback like Moore who is an unbelievable 28-2 as a starter. Not only has he dominated schools within his former conference, but Moore has also led his team to an 11-4 ATS (73%) mark in non-conference games. With Georgia coming off its first losing season since 1996 and losing its top two running backs (Washaun Ealey and Caleb King) in the offseason, the pick here is BOISE STATE to win by at least a touchdown.

The FoxSheets provide another reason to back the Broncos.

Chris Petersen is 39-21 ATS (65.0%, +15.9 Units) in all games as the coach of BOISE STATE. The average score was BOISE STATE 41.4, OPPONENT 16.4 - (Rating = 2*).

Although Moore and six other offensive starters return, the Broncos did lose some key pieces to last year’s 12-1 team, most notably WRs Titus Young and Austin Pettis who combined for 2,166 receiving yards and 19 TD. Moore gets most of the publicity, and rightly so, with 3,845 passing yards, 35 TD and 6 INT last year, but the Boise State rushing attack is also potent, averaging 200 yards per game and 5.4 yards per carry in 2010. Leading ground gainer TB Doug Martin (1,260 rush yds, 12 TD) returns for new offensive coordinator Brent Pease, who is not expected to change much in this offense that was directed by Bryan Harsin before he took the job at Texas. The BSU defense is also primed for a big year, led by DEs Shea McClellin (9.5 sacks) and Tyrone Crawford (7 sacks, 13.5 TFL), MLB Byron Hout (4 TFL in 9 games) and FS George Iloka (5 PD).

Georgia also has an excellent quarterback in sophomore Aaron Murray (3,049 pass yds, 24 TD, 8 INT), who has the weapons for another strong season. WR Tavarres King (504 rec yds) replaces departed star wideout A.J. Green at flanker and Orson Charles (422 rec yds) is one of the better tight ends in the nation. The Bulldogs ground game ranked a mediocre 73rd in the nation last year (143 YPG), and no longer has their top two rushers in Washaun Ealey (transfer) and Caleb King (academics). Georgia will lean heavily on highly-touted freshman Isaiah Crowell to carry the load. Another blow to the rushing attack is the loss of LT Trinton Sturdivant who will miss the season with a knee injury. The defense was solid last year (329 YPG, 23rd in nation), but the Bulldogs only had 24 sacks. OLB Justin Houston had 10 of those sacks, but he’s gone. The remaining LBs are highly athletic with USC transfer Jarvis Jones on the strong side and converted safety Alec Ogletree (26 solo tackles) in the middle. The 17th-ranked pass defense (180 YPG) is expected to shine again with all four starters returning, including CB Brandon Boykin (3 INT) and S Bacarri Rambo (3 INT).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
09/01/2011 06:58 PM

Thursday, September 1

Game Score Status Pick Amount

South Carolina State - 7:00 PM ET Central Michigan -20 500
Central Michigan -

New Hampshire - 7:00 PM ET Toledo -10.5 500 Toledo -

Villanova - 7:00 PM ET Temple -7.5 500 Temple -

North Texas - 7:00 PM ET North Texas +13.5 500
Florida International - Over 53.5 500

Western Carolina - 7:30 PM ET Western Carolina +33.5 500
Georgia Tech -

North Carolina Central - 7:30 PM ET North Carolina Central +43.5 500
Rutgers -

Mississippi State - 8:00 PM ET Memphis +30 500
Memphis - Under 50 500

Montana State - 8:00 PM ET Montana State +29.5 500
Utah -

UNLV - 8:00 PM ET UNLV +34.5 500
Wisconsin - Over 56.5 500

Wake Forest - 8:00 PM ET Syracuse -6 500 Syracuse -
Under 49.5 500

Bowling Green - 9:00 PM ET Idaho -5.5 500
Idaho - Over 52.5 500

Western Kentucky - 9:15 PM ET Kentucky -16.5 500
Kentucky - Over 48.5 500

UC - Davis - 10:00 PM ET Arizona State -37.5 500 Arizona State -

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cnotes Posts:33167 Followers:38
09/01/2011 07:20 PM


Week 1

College football Week 1 Top 25 betting cheat sheet

Memphis Tigers at No. 20 Mississippi State Bulldogs (-29, 50)

Why Memphis will cover: Despite going just 1-11 in 2010, the Tigers were a respectable 5-7 ATS. Coach Larry Porter gets a second year to install his gameplan.

Why Mississippi State will cover: The Bulldogs return 15 starters, including all their skill-position starters. They will put up points. Meanwhile, Memphis is expected to be the worst team in Conference USA.

Points: MSU trounced Memphis 49-7 in last season’s opener, and there’s little to suggest the Bulldogs won’t score a pile again.

UNLV Runnin’ Rebels at No. 10 Wisconsin Badgers (-35, 56)

Why UNLV will cover: The Rebels are 0-4 against the Badgers in recent years, but 4-0 ATS.

Why Wisconsin will cover: UNLV was 0-7 straight up and ATS on the road in 2010. Wisconsin’s punishing ground game will eventually overwhelm its smaller opponent.

Points: How UNLV will slow UW is a mystery, but the Badgers have questions of their own on defense, especially against the pass.


No. 15 TCU Horned Frogs at Baylor Bears (+6.5, 56)

Why TCU will cover: The Horned Frogs will be confident after hammering the Bears 45-10 last season. Though TCU’s offense is starting over with nine new starters, Baylor’s new-look defense may take a week to get going.

Why Baylor will cover: TCU went 13-0 last season, but was only 6-6 ATS. The Bears will have one of the top offensive units in the Big 12.

Points: Both teams have the potential to put up big points; it will depend on how quickly both defenses respond.


Tulsa Golden Hurricane at No. 1 Oklahoma Sooners (-24.5, 64)

Why Tulsa will cover: Tulsa is no pushover, with 15 starters back from a squad that finished ranked No. 24. The Hurricane was 8-4 ATS last season.

Why Oklahoma will cover: The nation’s top-ranked team, at home, on national television to begin the season: not a good recipe for the Hurricane.

Points: Tulsa’s offense has ranked in the top 5 nationally in three of the last five seasons. Oklahoma can score on anyone.

Kent State Golden Flashes at No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (-38, 45.5)

Why Kent State will cover: The Flashes’ aggressive defense could give the Tide troubles early on, which could make the huge spread tough to reach.

Why Alabama will cover: 'Bama is loaded on both sides, with returning starters aplenty and a focus to win a national title. If the Tide hit the field in form, they could win by 50.

Points: Kent State will have problems reaching the end zone, but Alabama likely won’t.

No. 3 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 4 LSU Tigers (+1, 55) at Arlington, Tex.

Why Oregon will cover: The Ducks are poised to win a national title with another explosive offense and a bend-don’t-break defense. Plus, the absence LSU’s QB Jordan Jefferson (suspended) can only help Oregon’s cause.

Why LSU will cover: The Tigers have shut down some of the top offenses out there. Oregon may be susceptible against the run, which works into LSU’s strategy.

Points: The Ducks had the nation’s top scoring offense in 2010, scoring 37 or more points in 11 of 13 games. A Jefferson-less LSU is the x-factor.

No. 7 Boise State Broncos vs. No. 22 Georgia Bulldogs (+3.5, 50.5) at Atlanta

Why Boise State will cover: The Broncos beat Virginia Tech and Oregon in their last two season openers, so they know how to start a season right against a quality opponent. Fourteen starters return. Georgia was underdog in two games last year, and lost both.

Why Georgia will cover: The defense is expected to be tough this year. And playing close to its own backyard can’t hurt.

Points: Boise’s offense ranked No. 2 nationally in 2010. Georgia QB Aaron Murray is back after a stellar freshman year last season.

Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at No. 5 Florida State Seminoles (-28.5, 54.5)

Why Louisiana-Monroe will cover: ULM knows how to cover; the team was 5-7 last year, but 6-5 ATS. Its defense can has given Sun Belt teams problems.

Why Florida State will cover: FSU is not a Sun Belt team. And this year’s Seminoles offense is expected to be as explosive as any that Tallahassee’s seen in a decade.

Points: ULM returns eight offensive starters, including its top four wideouts and its QB. FSU should also be loaded, setting up a potential shootout.

San Jose State Spartans at No. 6 Stanford Cardinal (-30, 53)

Why San Jose State will cover: With 11 returning starters on defense, the Spartans are expected to fare much better than last year’s one-win team. And despite the bad record, they were 5-6 ATS.

Why Stanford will cover: QB Andrew Luck is back, leading one of the nation’s top offenses. A defense that had three Pac-10 shutouts last year returns six starters.

Points: Stanford scored more than 35 points 11 times last year, but the new cast around Luck may take a quarter or two to adjust against an experienced Spartans D.

La-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns at No. 8 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-37, 63.5)

Why Louisiana-Lafayette will cover: That’s a lot of points, and the Ragin’ Cajuns have scrapped the wide-open style that’s failed the last couple seasons for more of a possession offense. That’ll drain some clock. Last year’s 3-9 team was 7-5 ATS.

Why Oklahoma State will cover: OSU went 11-2 overall, 10-3 ATS, and played very close to the line in two of those misses. The Cowboys averaged 44.2 ppg last season and return seven starters.

Points: ULL will be hard-pressed to keep up its end of the scoring bargain, so it’ll be up to OSU to pile on the points. Which it can.

East Carolina Pirates vs. No. 12 South Carolina Gamecocks (-20.5, 62) at Charlotte, N.C.

Why East Carolina will cover: ECU can score; the Pirates averaged 36.8 ppg last season and bring back their QB and three starting wideouts.

Why South Carolina will cover: ECU couldn’t stop anyone last year, allowing 44.0 ppg, second-worst in the nation. The Gamecocks bring back seven offensive starters and their entire defensive backfield, which should keep ECU at bay.

Points: Combined, these teams start seven wide receivers and last season averaged 557 yards through the air per game. Expect fireworks.

South Florida Bulls at No. 18 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-10, 47)

Why South Florida will cover: Athletic QB B.J. Daniels can give unsuspecting teams fits. The defense is expected to be strong, especially against the pass. Plus, teams that go to Notre Dame just get fired up.

Why Notre Dame will cover: With eight returning starters from a defense that ranked No. 23 nationally, points for Notre Dame foes will be tough to come by. Meanwhile, the offense also returns eight, and much bigger things are expected from the Irish.

Points: The over hit on USF games just four times in 2010; same with Notre Dame. The Irish aren’t likely to allow many scores on this day.

Akron Zips at No. 16 Ohio State Buckeyes (-34, 48)

Why Akron will cover: Maybe Ohio State will come out slow, after a messy off-season left a plethora of question marks.

Why Ohio State will cover: Talent-wise, it’s not even close. Ohio State, if its mind is on the game and the players know the playbook, should steamroll. The only thing that’s likely to stop the Buckeyes is the clock.

Points: Akron, out of the MAC, averaged just 15.6 ppg last year, but allowed 35.1 and won just once. OSU may have to score 48 to hit the over, which is possible.

Miami (Ohio) RedHawks at No. 21 Missouri Tigers (-20, 47.5)

Why Miami (Ohio) will cover: The RedHawks return eight of their top nine tacklers from last year. With seven returning starters on offense, the unit should be better than last year’s poor 21.6 ppg effort. Missouri (10-3 in ’10) was only 6-6 ATS.

Why Missouri will cover: The offense should be stellar; every player who caught a pass last year returns. Last year, Mizzou was a 19.5-point favorite over Miami, and won 51-13.

Points: A clash of experienced units (Missouri offense vs. Miami defense) will decide the pace of the game.

Florida Atlantic Owls at No. 23 Florida Gators (-35, 46)

Why Florida Atlantic will cover: Thirty-four points is a big spread for a Gators team that had several key holes to fill in the off-season. If the Owls control the pace, they could lose by less than that.

Why Florida will cover: For a team on the rebound, the hapless Owls provide the perfect opening foe. FAU returns just three starters on defense, which should water the mouths of Gators offensive skill players.

Points: Florida should run downhill most of the game, but can it score enough to cover the entire total?

Utah State Aggies at No. 19 Auburn Tigers (-21, 56.5)

Why Utah State will cover: The Aggies will try to chew up the clock on the ground, which could make it difficult for the rebuilding Tigers offense to cover a three-TD-plus spread.

Why Auburn will cover: Despite a practically new lineup on both sides of the ball, the talent is there. If the newcomers can pick up where last year’s team left off, the spread is low.

Points: The over hit only three times in Utah State game in 2010. Auburn is replacing a stunning 17 starters. Expect growing pains.

Rice Owls at Texas Longhorns (-24, 55)

Why Rice will cover: Last year, Rice faced Texas in the opener at 31.5-point dogs, and lost just 34-17. The Longhorns should be better, but the Owls, with 15 returning starters, should be too.

Why Texas will cover: After a shocking 5-7 record last year, five assistant coaches were canned and the senior class that led last year's downfall is gone. It was replaced with typical Texas-sized talent aimed at keeping the Longhorns relevant.

Points: The over hit on eight of Rice's games last season, and Texas has something to prove, especially on offense.


SMU Mustangs at No. 9 Texas A&M Aggies (-16.5, 57)

Why SMU will cover: Third-year starting QB Kyle Padron leads a squad that has 18 starters back and has aspirations of SMU winning its first Conference USA title since the pre-Death Penalty days.

Why Texas A&M will cover: It will be tough to throw against the Aggies this year, which returns its top two players at each defensive backfield position. The offense returns nine starters. That’s a lot for SMU to handle.

Points: June Jones still coaches SMU. SMU games hit the over in four of its first five games in 2010. A&M will also come out firing.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: