jokerspicks Posts:33 Followers:0
On 04/21/2012 03:05 PM in General

The Dunkel Index - A pile of crap, or great fade material?

I have never given any attention to the Dunkel Index, though I saw that in almost all sports forums people post it religiously every day.

Recently I was thinking to do some research on it, but in forums there is not much info about the actual Dunkel records, only that there are around 51% in all sports.
Some posters said it's worthless to follow exactly, but it's a very good tool in handicapping.

This morning I went to work, and I compiled all the results in the MLB season thus far and compared them with the Dunkel picks (need to say, I double checked everything, so there are no errors, or if there are, they should be minimal).

Here is what I found:

Money line picks:
104 Won, 101 Lost, this is 50.73% hit ratio - of course bad, one could not broke even if followed every ML pick

but the shocker came at

Total picks:
85 Won, 109 Lost, this is 43.81% hit ratio - horrible

I'm thinking that Totals can be great fade material, and ML pick should be ignored!
What do you think, results are so bad just because we are early in the MLB season, and at the basis of these picks are the pre-season games?

Anyone has done any research on Dunkel, there are differences in records between sports?
I know originally Dunkel was developed for basketball, this would mean that in hoops there records are a bit better?

Of course on the site they never talk about records, but there is a phrase at the beginning:
"Created in 1929 by Dick Dunkel, Sr., as the original power rating system, the Dunkel Index has consistently produced top-quality ratings and picks for sports fans everywhere"
I consider this to be big BS....

Top quality rankings maybe but top quality picks?

And another question:
I really wonder how some can say Dunkel is very helpful in handicapping?.

jokerspicks Posts:33 Followers:0
04/21/2012 07:22 PM

Nobody? ....

doof Posts:1650 Followers:19
04/21/2012 10:03 PM

I don't know much about it but I'm sure someone else here will chime in soon.

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jokerspicks Posts:33 Followers:0
04/22/2012 09:13 AM

@ doof:

I hope so, but if nobody will chime in for a while, I will need to bump up this thread every 2 days or so... otherwise will get lost.

lucky777 Posts:176 Followers:3
04/22/2012 10:15 AM

A point in every direction, is the same as no point at all.

NFL 2011: 35-18-2 = 66%
NFL 2012 2-4-2

doof Posts:1650 Followers:19
04/22/2012 10:57 AM

I think historically that the dunkel pick outcomes always hover around the 50th percentile. Most handicappers use this as one of many tools for picking games, never the sole source.

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bobalou Posts:5405 Followers:148
04/22/2012 11:16 AM

A wise man at this forum once told me @ 10 years ago " you can't have too much information - read all you can and then make your own educated decision" (Obviously he has more time on his hands than I do) but what I do believe he was saying was look at the so called experts posts or predictions but make your own choices because no one is always right all the time. that being said I do look at the Dunkle as a guide source during football - I consider it a plus of it happens to agree with my way if thinking. However I've never placed a bet strictly because of a Dunkle Report and I am not sure I've ever looked at it for other sports except in C-Notes threads (which again I use a for daily info source - along with a lot of the info sources and posts on this site)

I know this doesn't help answer your questiin very much but don't think anyone here will tell you any source is a given - some are just hotter than others at certain times !


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jimmythegreek Posts:12648 Followers:392
04/22/2012 11:16 AM

I totally agree. I think some refer to the Dunkel index as being more of an automatic source in making picks determinations when to me it's only about as an effective method as flipping a coin. I'm not too much of a system or trend capper but I'd sooner refer and depend on my own knowledge before turning to an index that hasn't proven itself in the long haul.

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marksmoneymakers Posts:29845 Followers:142
04/23/2012 08:01 AM

About 10 years ago I used it for college hoops and it was amazing. Since then for the most part it has sucked. I don't even waste my time anymore.

coverit Posts:996 Followers:3
04/23/2012 11:09 AM

Like most systems, trends, etc, it's more of a selling tool for touts than anything else. At the end of the day, my son could pick 10 different games and have just a good a shot as going 6-4 or 7-3 vs. most anybody. Lines are there for a reason, to even the playing field and make Vegas money.

I must be gettin' old... I still think baseball is cool.