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Golden State vs. Denver, 04/09/2012 21:00
Point Spread: +8½/-109 Golden State
NBA FREE PICK: Warriors +8.5
The Golden State Warriors don't have a realistic shot at making the playoffs, but that hasn't stopped them from giving their best effort down the stretch. Golden State is just 2-7 over their last 9 games, but six of those losses have come by 8-points or less.
Most people just look at a team's overall record to see how they have been playing, which is why we find such great value on the Warriors at +8.5.
Golden State crushed the Nuggets 112-97 just this past Saturday at home. The initial reaction for most bettors is to take the other side in a revenge game where the two teams just played. However, I believe the oddsmakers have over-adjusted the line by 3-4 points in this game.
Golden State is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Nuggets are just 5-13 ATS in home games over the second half of this season. BET THE WARRIORS!