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Florida State vs. Virginia, 03/01/2012 19:00
Point Spread: -4/-107 Virginia
The Virginia Cavaliers have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season. I'll gladly back them at home on Senior Night Thursday as they take care of the Florida State Seminoles by 5-plus points. This is going to be one highly motivated team in their home finale.
Virginia has quietly gone 21-7 this season to likely earn themselves a spot in the NCAA Tournament. The Cavaliers have been extremely tough at home, going 13-2 while outscoring opponents by 16.7 points/game. The reason this team can be trusted is their ability to play defense as well as anyone in the country. The Cavaliers give up 52.2 points/game overall, including 48.6 at home.
Florida State is a big over-hyped due to their wins over Duke and North Carolina this season. They come into this game having lost two straight, including an embarrassing 62-78 road loss at Miami last time out. FSU did beat Virginia 58-55 at home in their first meeting, but I believe the Cavaliers will have their revenge at home this time around. The Seminoles are just 5-7 in road games this season.
Virginia is 8-1 ATS versus good shooting teams - making >=45% of their shots this season. The Cavaliers are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. Virginia is 29-14-1 ATS in their last 44 games overall. The Cavaliers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. loss. The Seminoles are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Bet Virginia Thursday.