steve_janus Posts:310 Followers:5
On 02/16/2012 12:47 PM in Cappers

NCAAB FREE PICK: Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5

Iowa vs. Penn State, 02/16/2012 20:00
Point Spread: -2½/-109 Penn State

While the Hawkeyes beat Penn State by 13-points at home just a couple weeks ago, I don't think they will have what it takes to sweep the season series. The Hawkeyes are just 2-7 on the road this season. In their last four conference road games they lost by 34 at Michigan St, 7 at Purdue, 14 at Indiana, and 19 at Northwestern. Iowa simply decides to not play defense on the road, as they come in giving up just over 81 ppg on the road.

Iowa hasn't played since last Thursday and a long layoff usually leads to a poor performance by the Hawkeyes. Iowa is just 12-30 ATS when playing with 5 or 6 days rest since 1997.

Look for the Nittany Lions to have a much more efficient game offensively than they did in Iowa City. Penn State is also a much better team at home. They just beat Nebraska by 16 points on Saturday at home and have a couple other big home wins over Purdue and Illinois.

Penn State is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record, and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. BET THE NITTANY LIONS!

To see more of Steve Janus's plays click here.