steve_janus Posts:310 Followers:5
On 02/01/2012 12:03 PM in Cappers

NCAAB FREE PICK: Indiana State -5.5

Drake vs. Indiana State, 02/01/2012 20:00
Point Spread: -5½/-105 Indiana State

The Drake Bulldogs pulled off a huge upset on Saturday by knocking off Wichita State 93-86 in triple overtime. To give you an idea of how big a win that was, the Bulldogs were 9-point underdogs on their home floor. I think it will be extremely hard for Drake to bounce back with another big effort on the road against Indiana State, who comes into this game off a couple of nice upset wins of their own against Northern Iowa at home and at Evansville.

A lot of people will look at Drake's 79-64 win at home over Indiana State earlier this season, and quickly take the 5.5-points, but the Bulldogs are not the same team on the road. They are just 3-7 away from home this season. Another thing to take into consideration is the Bulldogs win over the Sycamores was their first in the last five meetings between these two schools. The last two times they visited Indiana State they were beat by double-digits, and that's exactly what I expect to happen tonight.

Indiana State is 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400, and 23-10 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points since 1997. Drake on the other hand is just 3-11 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. BET INDIANA STATE!

To see more of Steve Janus's plays click here.