cnotes Posts:32922 Followers:38
01/25/2012 07:09 PM

SBXLVI Betting Update

January 25, 2012

Just after I wrote about the sports books not wanting to go minus-2 ½, Jay Rood, VP of race and sports at MGM Resorts, had enough of all the early action on the Giants through Tuesday and tested the waters with Giants +2 ½ (-125).

"We we’re just getting too much money at a rapid pace on the Giants at all stages that we moved the line on from Sunday night until now," said Rood who opened the Giants +3 ½. "I’d rather make the move now and see what happens early on before the rush happens next week."

Most Las Vegas sports books still have the Patriots -3 (EVEN) with Lucky’s sports books showing a -3 (+105) on the Patriots. These next few days will be telling as to what we’ll see next weekend when the books will be more stubborn and set on their number.

Jay Kornegay and his staff are working feverishly to get all 350 Super Bowl props out by Thursday afternoon which will send a major rush to windows everywhere. The LVH Super Book sets the standard around town, and the world for the matter, on what the market price dictates.

Sharp players from everywhere will be in full force looking for an edge on the propositions with hopes of finding several middle opportunities with the varied prices around town.

Even though Kornegay won’t say so himself, the likely reason he is waiting longer than usual to open the props is because he and his staff seem to do all the work for everyone in town. There have been more than a few books in Las Vegas that have actually cut and pasted their logo on the Hilton sheet and used every one of their props and bet numbers to a tee, claiming it as their own.

When the props are released, we’ll have an update on some of the biggest movers as well as some of the biggest variances from what other sports books who work did their own have.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32922 Followers:38
01/25/2012 07:12 PM

Possible Shootout?

January 25, 2012

Most betting shops opened New England as a 3 ½-point favorite and some even came out with the Patriots -4. Since the first number came out, all of the books have dropped the line to 3 with and most recently the MGM in Las Vegas already going down to 2 ½ points.
Was the initial line wrong? handicapper Paul Bovi answered, “Before the Saints and Packers were eliminated, the NFC was established as a clear-cut favorite of four points in most spots. Now that the Giants have emerged from the conference, the line has come full circle as the number sits at 3 with a strong lean towards the underdog as a New York backer would have to lay from 15 (-115) to 25 cents (-125), reflective of heavy action on the G-Men since it was the Patriots that were the minus-20 choices once the line was posted after the championship game concluded.”

“The books will likely try to hold the line at 3 to prevent being middled. However, if the onslaught of Giant money continues, a move to 2 1/2 is probable and thus leaving the books vulnerable to the lopsided action on the opening number.”

The ‘over/under’ also saw some early moves, with the number going from 54 to 55. It’s as high as 55 ½ points at CRIS.

Executive director Jay Kornegay of the LVH Super Book (Las Vegas Hilton) and his staff came out with an open of 53 ½ and have adjusted up to 54 ½ points.

Kornegay explained the opener. “We just felt it was a comfortable number for us and knew the total would be inflated a bit, as always. Our thinking was that some of the sharps also liked the game to go under and would play it under early before the public got to it. Looking at the two teams, we also thought the number was just too high for the way these two are playing at this time.”

As of early this week, Kornegay said the total ticket count was about 50-50 to the ‘over/under.’

Is the number too high?

Considering the Giants and Patriots have saw their last two meetings go ‘under’ the number, some might believe so. And a few ‘over’ bettors are probably still stinging from Super Bowl XLII, when New York’s’ 17-14 victory over New England never threatened the closing number of 55.

Super Bowl Results
Super Bowl Matchup Total Result
XLIV New Orleans 31 Indianapolis 17 UNDER 57
XLII N.Y. Giants 17 New Engalnd 14 UNDER 55
XXXVI New England 20 St. Louis 17 UNDER 53
XXXIII Denver 34 Atlanta 19 OVER 52.5
XXX Dallas 27 Pittsburgh 17 UNDER 51
XXIX San Francisco 49 San Diego 26 OVER 53.5
XXVIII Dallas 30 Buffalo 13 UNDER 50.5
XIX San Francisco 38 Miami 16 OVER 53.5

Looking at the above table, you can see that we’ve had our share of high totals in the Super Bowl before but we’ve also had more defensive battles than shootouts when the total is in the fifties.

Rather than going back four years, this year’s regular season affair between the pair that occurred in Week 9.

Bovi explained, “While these teams played to a 44-point result (24-20) back in early November, the high total (55) is reflective of a number of factors, including the optimal playing conditions of Lucas Oil Stadium. You also have to look at a Giants offense, which is healthy, and that has generated much greater productivity as the year has progressed. Plus the Patriots defense that still has question marks.”

For those of you who forgot the regular season affair between the pair, make a mental note that the game was 0-0 at halftime. Even though it stayed ‘under’ the number, 44 points and more importantly eight scores were posted in the second-half.

New York Giants
Matchup Total Result
N.Y. Giants 37 Green Bay 20 OVER 53.5
N.Y. Giants 37 Dallas 34 OVER 50.5
Green Bay 38 N.Y. Giants 35 OVER 53.5
New Orleans 49 N.Y. Giants 24 OVER 50.5
N.Y. Giants 24 New England 20 UNDER 51.5

New England Patriots
Matchup Total Result
New England 45 Denver 10 OVER 50.5
New England 38 Philadelphia 20 OVER 50.5
N.Y. Giants 24 New England 20 UNDER 51.5
Pittsburgh 25 New England 17 UNDER 52
New England 20 Dallas 16 UNDER 55.5
New England 30 N.Y. Jets OVER 50.5
New England 31 Oakland 19 UNDER 55.5
New England 35 San Diego 21 OVER 53.5

Looking above, you can see that the Giants have had five games with an ‘over/under’ in the fifties this season and the ‘over’ has cashed in four of them. Plus one of those affairs was indoors, at New Orleans, and the defense was lit up by the Saints for 49 points. New England saw almost half of its games have a total of 50-plus and the total results ended in a stalemate (4-4). The Patriots have not played indoors or under a retractable roof this season.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32922 Followers:38
01/25/2012 07:15 PM

Patriots secondary still question mark vs. Giants

January 25, 2012

FOXBOROUGH, Mass. (AP) - Eli Manning could have a pretty clear view downfield against the hardly super secondary of the New England Patriots.

Get ready, Julian Edelman. Here comes Victor Cruz.

A young group including undrafted free agents, a Pro Bowl player in a sophomore slump and even a wide receiver was good enough to help beat Joe Flacco and the Baltimore Ravens - barely - in the AFC championship game.

The New York Giants and Manning, with his big-game experience and receivers Cruz and Hakeem Nicks, pose a tougher challenge in the Super Bowl on Feb. 5.

``The Giants are playing like they're the best team in the National Football League at this point,'' former Patriots safety Rodney Harrison said Wednesday, ``and Eli, he's been fantastic and he will pick this secondary apart.''

James Ihedigbo isn't listening to the doubters.

After three years as a special teams player for the New York Jets, he's started the last 14 games at safety for the Patriots - with no interceptions all season. He is, Harrison said, a ``serviceable'' player but hard-working and team-oriented.

``We have a saying, `All we got is us,' and that's how we play,'' Ihedigbo said. ``We play for each other.''

Since the season began, 16 different defensive backs have played. The changes began in training camp when the Patriots released starting safeties Brandon Meriweather and James Sanders.

Cutting Sanders, a smart leader, was ``a big mistake'' by coach Bill Belichick, Harrison said.

The Patriots allowed 70 completions of 20 yards or more, nearly 4 1-2 a game. But Belichick saw improvement after the midpoint of the season.

``I don't think that necessarily the work ethic or the desire or the competitiveness to do it has changed a lot, but the results started to improve because of a little more continuity, a little better execution, better technique, more confidence,'' he said. ``It's a group of guys and coaches that have worked hard and tried to get better on a daily basis and I think they have over the course of the season, more so in the last five or six weeks. ``

The starters are Ihedigbo and cornerback Kyle Arrington, both undrafted, second-year cornerback Devin McCourty, and safety Patrick Chung, who missed seven games with a foot injury before returning for the next to last game of the regular season.

The backups are Edelman, Sterling Moore, Antwaun Molden, Nate Jones and Malcolm Williams. Edelman is the only one of those five who were with the Patriots last season, and that was as a wide receiver and punt returner.

The last time he played defensive back?

``I think 1998,'' he said. ``Pop Warner. I was 12.''

Edelman had finished his junior season as a quarterback in 2007 at Kent State when the Patriots and Giants last met in the Super Bowl, where Manning was named MVP. David Tyree's unforgettable catch, trapping the ball against his helmet while closely guarded by Harrison, set up the winning touchdown in New York's 17-14 win.

That was the last game for Harrison, now an analyst for NBC who spoke on a conference call.

``One point in time I said that I felt like this was the worst secondary that the Patriots had the last decade and I felt strongly about that,'' he said. ``I'm not 100 percent sold on any of these guys.'

There were missed tackles, poor communication and lack of physical play, he said. The Patriots allowed 293.9 yards passing, second most during the regular season.

Since their playoffs began with a 45-10 win over Denver, Harrison has seen the defensive backs competing harder and playing better. But their performances declined in the 23-20 victory over the Ravens, he said.

``I was very disappointed because, yes, they made some plays,'' Harrison said. ``Sterling Moore, obviously, made a couple of key plays, but Patrick Chung and that secondary, you saw some miscommunications and it's his job to get everyone lined up and the other guys to do their job. And Flacco had a couple of opportunities down the field, which he didn't convert on that could have been a totally different game.''

Moore, a rookie who had been cut earlier in the season, swiped the ball out of Lee Evans' hands in the end zone with 22 seconds left.

``That play, that's our season,'' Ihedigbo said. ``That's everything that we worked for right there and he knocks that ball out of the receiver's hands.''

Moore followed that by breaking up a pass to Dennis Pitta at the 3-yard line with 15 seconds remaining. Then Billy Cundiff hooked a 32-yard field goal attempt.

``I can't say enough (about Moore),'' Ihedigbo said. ``He played phenomenal down there at the end.''

But Moore was the culprit on a 29-yard touchdown pass to Torrey Smith with 3:38 left in the third quarter as the Ravens took a 17-16 lead. Flacco threw to Smith in the right flat and immediately spun past Moore, attempting to make the tackle.

And Edelman, a physical player working hard to learn a new position, did a poor job on slot receiver Anquan Boldin for gains of 29 and 9 yards on Baltimore's final drive.

``Afterward, you know, you're like, `Wow, you definitely had to guard Boldin,' " he said, ``but not during the game.''

In the Super Bowl, he may guard Cruz.

Bad idea, Harrison said.

``I just don't think that's a smart matchup,'' he said. ``They tried it with Anquan Boldin and Edelman struggled.''

But the Patriots still won. And despite their shortcomings, they're taking a 10-game winning streak into the Super Bowl

So much for the critics, who may give the secondary added motivation.

``You've got to prove that you're able to play this game at a high level,'' Ihedigbo said. ``You play with a chip on your shoulder and guys have been able to do that.''

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32922 Followers:38
01/28/2012 09:30 AM


NY Giants vs. New England
The Giants look to build on their 8-0 ATS record in their last 8 playoff games as an underdog. New York is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Giants favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.


Game 101-102: NY Giants vs. New England (6:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 143.438; New England 141.965
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 1 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: New England by 3; 55
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+3); Over

Long Sheet

Sunday, February 5


NY GIANTS (12 - 7) vs. NEW ENGLAND (15 - 3) - 2/5/2012, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 51-30 ATS (+18.0 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 90-65 ATS (+18.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 63-39 ATS (+20.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 36-17 ATS (+17.3 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 1-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons


Short Sheet

Sunday, February 5

Super Bowl XLVI
NY GIANTS: 10-2 ATS as a Wild Card team
NEW ENGLAND: 26-9 Over in all games

** (TC) Denotes Time Change


Sunday, February 5

Trend Report

6:30 PM
NY Giants are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 6 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 8 games

Red - Hot trends are trends 80% or higher. Blue - Cold trends are trends 20% or lower.

ATS Trends

N.Y. Giants
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Giants are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
Giants are 7-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Giants are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Giants are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 playoff games as an underdog.
Giants are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 playoff games.
Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf.
Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.
Giants are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0.

New England
Patriots are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS loss.
Patriots are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 Superbowl games.
Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 playoff games as a favorite.
Patriots are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 playoff games.

OU Trends

N.Y. Giants
Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games on fieldturf.
Over is 9-1-1 in Giants last 11 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Giants last 6 games overall.
Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 8-2 in Giants last 10 playoff games.
Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-1 in Giants last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 11-4-1 in Giants last 16 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 5-2 in Giants last 7 playoff games as an underdog.
Over is 5-2 in Giants last 7 games as an underdog.

New England
Over is 5-0 in Patriots last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 8-2 in Patriots last 10 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 22-7 in Patriots last 29 games overall.
Over is 22-7 in Patriots last 29 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 24-8 in Patriots last 32 games as a favorite.
Over is 14-5 in Patriots last 19 vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 8-3-1 in Patriots last 12 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Over is 26-10-1 in Patriots last 37 games on fieldturf.

Head to Head

Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in New England.
Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32922 Followers:38
02/04/2012 12:24 PM

Super Bowl Prop Bets Continue To Grow

Giants vs. Patriots is a big deal not only in the Big Apple, Boston, Providence and other “home” cities for the teams involved, as well as Indianapolis, the host city. But no locale has embraced the Super Bowl like Las Vegas. It’s the biggest week of the year in town, not just for the sports books, but for the entire hotel industry.

LVH Superbook Director Jay Kornegay recently related the impact of the game, not only at his property, but at others across town.

"This is not only the biggest week of the year at the sports books," said Kornegay while guesting with us last Friday on Brian Blessing’s SportsBook Radio show on 920 AM in Las Vegas, "but it’s also the biggest week for the card dealers, waiters, waitresses, maitre d’s, you name it. They all want to make sure they are working during Super Bowl week when the business is always good."

What Kornegay and the other sports book directors also occupy themselves with at this time of year is the expansive list of Super Bowl proposition bets. The myriad of props at LVH – a dizzying array totaling over 300 – was finally made available last Friday, the culmination of several all-night cram sessions over the previous few days. Although the sports book staffs begin making preliminary preparations for the props weeks in advance, they can’t really begin to sink their teeth into any specific matchups until the conference championship games are complete.

At many properties, Tuesday is the all-day affair for the sports book staff to hammer out the specific props, but there’s a careful process before those numbers are available to the clientele.

"It takes a little while, because we’re double and triple-checking all of the numbers," said Kornegay, whose wide range of props are regarded as the industry standard.

The props have become such a big deal at LVH and other major sports books in town that an early glimpse at the numbers is almost akin to the Clarence Beeks character getting his hands on the crop reports before anyone else in the classic Trading Places movie.

Indeed, the Super Bowl proposition bets have taken on a life of their own over the years. Although English soccer fans are used to all sorts of “proposition” wagers for each and every game in the Premier League and other levels of “proper” football, such stat props are more rare for wagering opportunities in American football. Unless, of course, we’re talking about the Super Bowl.

Veteran prop followers, however, have a few suggestions, or cautions, regarding proposition wagers for the Super Bowl, which represents a new territory for most wagerers who focus most of their time on sides and totals during the regular season and playoffs.

1) Be wary of thinking that 'over' on most of the statistical props is a good wager. The knee-jerk reaction by most when they see the props is to believe that most of them will exceed or go 'over' whatever the posted number, especially on player stat props.

Keep in mind, however, that most props are completely stat-driven, with the books merely taking a statistical model and adjusting the percentages slightly (when warranted). There is rarely going to be a definitive “stat edge” for the player props in the Super Bowl.

2) Focus on the game first, and how you see it progressing, and try to fit in some of the prop wagers that might be consistent with how you perceive the flow of the game. If expecting a taut, lower-scoring affair, perhaps shade some of the props that reflect a defensive battle. On the other hand, if you foresee a shootout, shade the props that support a higher-scoring game and more yardage.

We are humored by many Las Vegas sorts who become very cocksure of themselves regarding their recommendations on Super Bowl props, especially since this is the only American football game of the year where such an expansive list of proposition bets is available. Nonetheless, we think there are a few props worth considering. Having said that, however, we think the following props might offer some value:

1) Defensive or special teams touchdowns: Yes +145, No -175. Consider that there have been special teams or defensive touchdowns in four of the last five Super Bowls, and the history of the game is replete with many such big plays. Ironically, the only one of the last five “Supes” without a defensive or special teams TD was the last time the Giants met the Patriots, in Super Bowl XLII four years ago in Glendale, Arizona.

2) In which half will more points be scored: First half +½ point, -120; Second half and overtime, -½, -110. Series history between these sides suggests to look at the second half/overtime combo as the recommendation here. Remember, Super Bowl XLII was 7-3 entering the fourth quarter four years ago before 21 points were scored in the final frame. And in this season’s regular-season meeting between the G-Men and Pats at Foxborough, the score was nil-nil at halftime.

3) First score of game: Touchdown -190, Field goal or safety +160. Getting a near 2/1 price on the first score of the game being a field goal seems decent value to us. The first score was also a field goal when these teams met Nov. 6 at Foxborough.

4) Different Players to have a passing attempt: Over 2½, +250; Under 2½, -330. This might not be a bad “bomber” on the 'over,' especially if one trick play (halfback option pass, fake punt or the like) is attempted. Then, it’s a winner. Also, if either staring QB is skaken up for even a short while, a backup could throw a pass. And, in the unlikelihood of a one-sided affair, a backup QB could get a chance to play in the final minutes. Not the worst longshot prop on the card.

Again, there are myriad player stat props as well, but we would suggest going back to our “first” number two point above; if you’re thinking this game might be lower-scoring and feature defense, shade some of the 'under' stat props; if you’re thinking it’s going to be a shootout, shade some of the 'over' stat props.

Or, just sit back and enjoy you wager on either the Giants, Patriots, or perhaps the “total” as well. No matter what, good luck, and enjoy Giants-Patriots!

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32922 Followers:38
02/04/2012 12:26 PM

Super Bowl Matchups Favor New York Giants

The pointspread for Super Bowl XVLI between the New England Patriots and New York Giants has been moving in the Giants’ direction as a lot people feel the matchups are to their advantage.

New York is now available at +2½ at some shops after opening as 3-3½ point underdogs. The total has stayed pretty steady at 55 points.

When New England passes the ball

Quarterback Tom Brady threw for 5,235 yards in the regular season and 602 more in two playoff games, but it’s no secret he struggles against strong pass rushes. His three lowest quarterback ratings this year have come against the Cowboys, Giants and Ravens, all ranked in the top-7 in the league in sacks.

Brady’s three main targets are receiver Wes Welker and tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. Gronkowski suffered a high ankle sprain against Baltimore last week and could be severely hampered. The Giants will stack the middle of the field and force Brady to throw outside to Deion Branch. Chad Ochocinco still has the speed to go deep, but caught 15 balls all year and there’s no guarantee he’ll even be active.

Summary: New England is predicted to score about 29 points with the team favored by three and the total at 55. Brady will need to be interception-free for that to happen and make several great plays in the face of a very good Giants pass rush.

When New England runs the ball

New England ranked 20th in run offense during the regular season (110.3 YPG), while the Giants were 19th in run defense (121.3 YPG). The Patriots have a promising rookie in Stevan Ridley, but he was inactive last game due to fumbling concerns and that leaves just BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead.

The Giants allowed 120.3 YPG on the ground in playoff wins over Atlanta, Green Bay and San Francisco. However, that number drops to 84.3 YPG without the scrambling of quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers and Alex Smith, something they won’t have to worry about with the slow-footed Brady.

Summary: Green-Ellis never fumbles and had a tough 68 yards on 15 carries in the AFC title game. The Patriots need to be patient offensively and run the ball when the Giants drop into dime coverage and dare them to run. New England needs over 100 rushing yards to win this game.

When New York passes the ball

Quarterback Eli Manning backed up his statement that he’s an ‘elite’ quarterback by throwing for 4,933 yards in the regular season (92.9 QB rating) and adding six, fourth quarter comebacks. The postseason numbers are even better with 308 YPG, eight TDs and just one interception (103.1 rating).

Manning has three very good receivers in Hakeem Nicks, Mario Manningham and Victor Cruz. Nicks is dealing with a shoulder issue, but is not listed on the injury report. The Patriots pass defense ranked 31st in the regular season (294 YPG) and while they have been better in the postseason, playing the inaccurate Tim Tebow helped. Manningham was almost giddy at the thought of converted receiver Julian Edelman guarding him this Sunday.

Summary: Coach Bill Belichick needs to come up with a scheme to confuse Manning, but that is easier said than done. The Giants’ receivers against the Patriots’ cover guys of Sterling Moore, Kyle Arrington, Edelman etc. is the biggest matchup advantage on either side. Expect a big day for the Giants signal caller.

When New York runs the ball

New York ranked dead-last in run offense during the regular season (89.2 YPG), while New England was 17th in run defense (117.1 YPG).

Both teams have been much better in the playoffs. The Giants are at 117.3 YPG and have increased their yards per attempt from 3.5 to 4.2. Ahmad Bradshaw is playing through a foot injury and will be the main back with some help from big Brandon Jacobs. New England has allowed 130 YPG to Denver and Baltimore this postseason, but just 3.6 yards per rush compared to 4.6 in the regular season.

Summary: This is not a big matchup advantage for either team. The Giants want to run the ball enough to keep the Patriots defense honest and free up play-action for Manning. New England’s unit seems to be peaking behind Vince Wilfork and should do a solid job.

Special Teams, Coaching and Intangibles

Special teams are always the big x-factor. The Giants likely would have lost the NFC title game to San Fran if not for two punt return fumbles. New England fumbled on a kick return last game that almost proved costly. Barring a turnover though, the special teams matchup this week is a push.

Looking at intangibles, the Giants are more battle hardened having won road playoff game at Green Bay and San Francisco, who were a combined 16-1 at home beforehand. The Patriots got to play both their playoff games at Foxborough and it’s hard to imagine them beating the Ravens if that game was away.

The coaches are both old school and former members of Bill Parcells’ Giants staff. Belichick does get the overall coaching nod, especially with two weeks to prepare. He also rarely loses to a team twice in the same season and the Giants won 24-20 on the road in November. However, coach Tom Coughlin is a very good game-planner in his own right and has more overall talent to work with.

Legacies are also on the line with Belichick trying to tie Chuck Noll for most Super Bowl wins as a coach. Brady is trying to match Terry Bradshaw and Joe Montana for most wins by a quarterback. Coach Coughlin and Manning would also each get into rarified air with their second Super Bowl ring.

Finally, the elephant in the room is the Patriots trying to get revenge for the Super Bowl loss to the Giants four years ago that ruined their perfect season. Belichick and company won’t acknowledge it as a factor, but it certainly is one. The question is whether they can overcome their matchup disadvantage to get it done.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32922 Followers:38
02/04/2012 12:38 PM

Super Props

January 30, 2012

Super Bowl XLVI in Indianapolis kicks off Feb. 5 when New England meets the New York Giants with the Patriots looking to avenge losses to the Giants in Super Bowl XVII, and also a 24-20 defeat at Foxboro this season in a game which snapped a 20-game regular season home win streak by New England.
Aside from betting the game itself, a myriad of betting propositions abound in every Super Bowl as amateur gamblers with an opinion come out of the closet more often this time of the year than first-timers at a gay rally.

It’s important to remember that when betting Super Bowl props the oddsmaker holds a huge edge as many of the props carry as much of a 40-cent ‘juice’ edge in his favor. Thus, it’s critically important to make sure you have some sort of built-in advantage working in your favor before taking the plunge.

In addition, the props are designed to create more action for the books.

"The props were designed not only to get us publicity but to spread the money out. We didn't just want one big decision for the day; we want 10 or 20 big decisions. Our chances obviously are better if we have 20 major decisions compared to one," said Jay Kornegay, executive director of the Las Vegas Hotel & Casino Super Book.

Furthermore, it’s important to realize that props are set for the public and because they tend to bet on teams and players to succeed (yes bets), most of the money is going to be bet on the 'positive' side of a prop.

According to Kornegay, this is the only NFL game of the year where he doesn't set the line with the professional bettors in mind. The professionals, he adds, do bet on props but the handle taken in from the public masses that flock to Las Vegas during Super Bowl weekend far outweighs the smart money.

Here are some “tips” on some of the more popular propositions when it comes to prop wagering on this year’s Super Bowl.

1. The Coin Toss

A wildly popular prop that fans love betting on is the Coin Toss. It’s fast and it takes place just prior to kick-off. It has also seen the NFC winning the pre-game coin flip each of the last 14 years in a row!

What does it mean? Nothing. The odds on the NFC winning this year’s coin flip: 50/50.

2. We’ll Take The Ball

In addition, similar props abound on which team will receive the ball first. The Giants are currently -180.

The reason being, as reported by Joe Fortenbaugh of is “On Sept 7, 2008, New England played the Kansas City Chiefs, won the toss and elected to receive. That was the day Tom Brady was lost for season with a torn ACL. Since that day, the Patriots have played 65 games - playoffs included - and won the coin toss 28 times. On all 28 occasions, New England elected to defer their choice to the second half and started the game by kicking off.”

3. Quarterback Action Tops Player Props

Bets involving the quarterbacks are extremely popular and for all the right reasons as signal callers have won the Super Bowl MVP award 24 times in 45 previous Super Bowl games.

Running backs and wide receivers have carted home the MVP trophy seven times each, with others (read: defensive performers) also totaling seven MVP’s.

New England’s Tom Brady and New York’s Eli Manning lead the charge this year. In head-to-head proposition competition the Hilton favors Brady by 11 yards over Manning. You also have to lay an extra -$1.10 more on Brady than Manning in total TD passes for the contest.

4. When Tackles Are Not Tackles and Penalties Are Not Penalties

When betting on the over/under number of tackles it’s important to know that sacks are not recorded as a tackle.

In addition, propositions involving penalties are good only if the penalty is accepted.

5. Team Scoring Tendencies

Certain edges can be found when it comes to scoring props but rest assured, you are not pulling the wool over the linemakers eyes.

Here is a breakdown of quarter-by-quarter scoring and averages for-and-against in all games played this season for both squads. Note the Giants have played 19 games this campaign; the Patriots 18:

1Q – New York: 80-81 / 4.21-4.26
1Q – New England: 99-86 / 5.50-4.78

2Q – New York: 135-124 / 8.53–5.37
2Q – New England: 179-100 / 9.94-5.56

3Q – New York: 72-79 / 3.79-4.16
3Q – New England: 151-63 / 8.39-3.50

4Q – New York: 188-145 / 9.89-7.63
4Q – New England: 152-122/ 8.44-6.78

Notice that both teams’ defense has been its stingiest in the 3Q this season.

On the flip side, the Giants’ offense has performed at its best in the final stanza, whereas the Pats’ attack tends to rev up in the 2Q of games.

Incidentally, New England’s defense has been en fuego in the 3Q of its last 10 games, allowing just 20 points. The Patriots have also not allowed a point in any of their last three games during the final quarter.

6. Player Scoring Tendencies

The leading candidate to score the first touchdown in Super Bowl XLVI is New England TE Rob Gronkowski, high ankle sprain and all. He led the Patriots in touchdowns with 17 this season.

Behind Gronkowski is New York WR Victor Cruz. New England’s other TE, Aaron Hernandez and RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis make up the leading four candidates.

Over the previous 45 Super Bowls, wide receivers lead the brigade, scoring the first touchdown 18 times. Green Bay WR Jordy Nelson found the end zone first for the Packers against the Steelers in Super Bowl XLV last year.

Running backs are right on their heels with 16 initial scores. Tight ends have scored first five times, with quarterbacks, kick returners and defensive players two times each.

7. Odd Props

Melding Super Bowl props with other sports is another popular prop.

One personality prop that fans are sure to be attracted to is Eli Manning completions versus LeBron James points. Manning goes up against the NFL’s 31st ranked pass defense while James and the Miami Heat will be hosting a Toronto Raptors defense that is surrendering less than 95 PPG on the season.

Meanwhile in a Beantown prop, Tom Brady’s touchdown tosses are paired against total team goals scored by the Boston Bruins in their game against the Washington Capitals.

One of our favorites, though, is who will the Super Bowl MVP thank first - with the choices being Teammates, Coach, Family, God, Owner or no one.

If you like the Pats in this game you probably like the chances of acknowledging owner Robert Kraft in memory of his recently departed wife Myra. If you like the Giants it’s likely the winner will acknowledge his teammates.

One thing is for sure. It’s a good thing Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos will be watching from the sidelines. Otherwise God would have been an odds-on favorite.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32922 Followers:38
02/04/2012 12:40 PM

Las Vegas books are ready!

January 30, 2012

If you can’t get tickets to the Super Bowl, the next best thing is to jump on an airplane and head to Las Vegas. Thousands of visitors flock to Vegas without even attempting to get a Super Bowl ticket because there is nothing quite like the environment the city puts on display for the biggest game of the year.
In addition to being able to wager on just about anything that happens in the game and having packed rooms energize the entire casino, visitors also get the benefit of being able get the most value for their dollar in the competitive market.

Whether it’s a local bar like PT’s pub offering all-you-can eat food for $10 or one of the larger Station Casinos properties offering $1 Bud Lights and hot dogs, there is no place in the world with such value catered to the individual sports fan. Try getting a beer and hot dog in Indianapolis this weekend for less than 10 bucks, it just isn’t happening.

Just about every casino will be offering VIP parties, but most of them also offer giant showrooms with food and drink specials for everyone to enjoy. The LVH Super Book opens up their showroom, the one that Elvis played at, with room for over 1,000 partiers and they don’t charge a thing. It’s called “Football Central” and the massive room creates a vibe for the game that almost makes you feel like you're there.

The South Point opens their showroom for hundreds to pack into and watch the game on their movie-screen style monster HD screen that is the clearest picture you’ll ever witness. And there’s no charge to get in!

“We like to say that our entire casino is a viewing party,” said Coast Resorts sports book director Bob Scucci. “With TV’s in the pits and all the bars having the same specials, it’s one massive party.”

Las Vegas has a few days a year where a small amount of marketing captures some of the biggest returns in the casino where the event sells itself. There’s the rodeo, NASCAR weekend, New Year’s Eve and the Super Bowl. And in each case, the slot machines and table games are full afterwards which is why these casinos offer so many items for cheap.

“This is definitely the second biggest weekend of the year for our casinos and in some respects, its No. 1,” said Scucci. “New Year’s Eve is usually the biggest of the year, but it doesn’t always fall on weekends like the Super Bowl does. Having the Friday, Saturday, Sunday weekend is always guaranteed unlike New Years.”

If you live on the West side, taking a short drive to Arizona Charlie’s could be worth your while with $1 draft beers and several food items for less than $2. On the East side, you’ve got the South Point with their daily cheap drinks and hot dogs that are always .75 cents. Between Station Casinos, Coast Resorts, the South Point and PT’s Pub locations, the locals are definitely covered.

On the strip, there is a little bit of different vibe. This is where most of the visitors from out-of-town will be and they create, I hate to say it, a little more excitement. They have made plans to travel here and let loose while the locals are a bit more reserved because it’s almost like just another Sunday to them.

If you walk into the MGM, Aria, Wynn Resort or any other strip sports book, you can expect a little more raucous standing room only crowd. This is why they came to Vegas, to let it all hang out and part of that involves being ultra animated throughout the game which always adds to the experience. Don’t expect the cheap food and drink specials on the strip like the local places have, but do expect decibel levels to be higher.

Once you’ve found a place to watch the game, now you have to have a game plan with your wagers. It was just a couple of years ago that if you didn’t get a bet in by 3:25 p.m. (PDT), you got shut out and would have to wait until halftime to wager. Most sports books now offer in-progress wagers where they offer a spread and total throughout each time out.

The Cantor Gaming sports books take it one step further by allowing you to wager throughout the game during live action. The Cantor books at the Cosmopolitan, M Resort, Venetian, Palazzo, Hard Rock and Tropicana all offer in-game wagering that allows you not only to bet the side and total, but also bet on each play. You can set up an account and they'll give you a little hand held device that you can play on throughout the casino.

It’s hard to imagine watching the Super Bowl anywhere else other than Las Vegas. Those who are making their first trip for the game will be hooked and you can be assured that your future Super Bowl festivities elsewhere will never be comparable.

Enjoy the weekend, let loose and have some fun. Amid all the good times, you may even get lucky and have the right side.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32922 Followers:38
02/04/2012 12:44 PM

SBXLVI Predictions

January 31, 2012

Who will win Super Bowl XLVI this Sunday?

We asked that question to a group of bookmakers in Las Vegas and some well known television and radio personalities as well.

Even though the early action was on the Giants, our consensus isn’t buying the New York hype.

Check out all the fearless predictions below.

Super Bowl Predictions

Expert Winner Score - Quick Thoughts

Jay Kornegay
LVH Super Book Giants 27 Patriots 24
I think the Giants defensive momentum carries over into this game and frustrates Brady.

Vinny Magliulo
The Linemakers Giants 27 Patriots 23
The G-Men are playing the most complete football on both sides of the line. They can put pressure on Brady and score with the Patriots.

Jay Rood
MGM Resorts Patriots 24 Giants 23
I see a low-scoring game with Brady executing a last minute drive to seal the game and his Hall of Fame credentials.

Mike Colbert
Cantor Gaming Patriots 27 Giants 20
Brady and Belichick will be too much for the Giants in a
double-revenge game.

Bert Osborne
South Point Patriots 31 Giants 20
I've seen the Giants look bad a lot more times this season than I have with the Patriots.

Bob Scucci
Coast Resorts Patriots 27 Giants 24
I think this will be a closely fought game with no team getting too far ahead, just like their last Super Bowl and Week 9 this year.

Kitt Langvad
Arizona Charlies West Patriots 31 Giants 24
I think the Pats have the better coach and even with a mediocre defense, they will score enough to win.

Jason McCormick
Station Casinos Patriots 41 Giants 38
This has been the year of the quarterback and I expect it to continue here in a track meet.

Zack Goldberg
Wildfire Patriots 27 Giants 16
Pats are extremely undervalued for a team that has won 10 in row. I have a hard time believing Eli can beat Brady in two Super Bowls.

Brian Blessing
Sports Book Radio Patriots 31 Giants 27
It's not very often we get the Patriots in a revenge game and they're being severely underestimated for this one.

Jorge Gonzalez
Fox Sports Radio Patriots 31 Giants 27
I can't see Tom Brady have poor games back-to-back, also giving the coaching edge to Belichick.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32922 Followers:38
02/04/2012 12:48 PM

Line Moves - SBXLVI Props

February 1, 2012

The following are the opening lines with betting movement and current numbers on the LVH Super Book Super Bowl propositions. A lot of the movement looks in line with how the majority of the public is betting the game, which is siding with the Giants which means less Tom Brady and more Eli Manning.
The largest move through the first few days has been the OVER-UNDER price on what jersey number will score the first touchdown. The number opened up at 80.5 UNDER -120 and has been bet to OVER -130, a .50 cent move. The thinking behind it all is that the first score will most likely be a touchdown pass. You get the entire main receiving corps of the Giants and Patriots with the exception of Victor Cruz and Travis Beckum. It appears to fall in line with some value when comparing another similar prop that hasn't moved.

If looking to bet whether the first touchdown of the game will be a pass to anyone, the line hasn't moved from the opener at -200 with a take back on 'any other TD' being +175.

Here are all of the propositions that have seen moves at the LVH.

**(Declined penalties do not count)
GIANTS -110 (Bet up to -135)

OVER 4.0 -110 (Bet up to 4 OVER -120)
UNDER 4.0 -110

**(Returns only--Excludes Touchbacks, Out of Bounds & Fair Catches)
OVER 6.5 +145 (Bet up to 6.5 OVER +175/-200)
UNDER 6.5 -165

OVER 308.5 -110 (Bet up to 310.5 -110)
UNDER 308.5 -110

TD PASS -240 (Bet down to -230/+195)

**(Overtime does not count)
YES +250 (Bet down to +225/-265)
NO -300

**(4th Down Conversion by Penalty does not count)
YES +175 (Bet down to +165/-185)
NO -200

**(Sacks do not count, Defensive+Special teams solo+assisted tackles count)
OVER 6.0 -110 (Bet up to 6 OVER -145)
UNDER 6.0 -110

OVER 319.5 -110 (Bet down to 316.5 -110)
UNDER 319.5 -110

**(If no Reception--Under is the winner)
OVER 1.5 +120 (Bet up +1.5 +135)
UNDER 1.5 -140

YES +130 (Bet down to +115)
NO -150

OVER 24.0 EVEN (Bet up to 24,5 -110)
UNDER 24.0 -120

**(4th Down Conversion by Penalty does not count)
YES +130 (Bet down to +120)
NO -150

OVER 102.5 -110 (Bet down to 101.5 OVER -110)
UNDER 102.5 -110

**(Sacks do not count, Defensive+Special teams solo+assisted tackles count)
OVER 5.5 EVEN (Bet down to 5.5 OVER +110)
UNDER 5.5 -120

ELI MANNING (NYG) +1.5 +105 (Bet down to +1.5 EVEN)
TOM BRADY (NE) -1.5 -125

ELI MANNING (NYG) +0.5 -130 (Bet up to -0.5 -145)
TOM BRADY (NE) -0.5 +110

ELI MANNING (NYG) +11.5 -110 (Bet down to +10.5 -110)
TOM BRADY (NE) -11.5 -110

ELI MANNING (NYG) -160 (Bet down to -140)

VICTOR CRUZ (NYG) -6.5 +105 (Bet down to -6.5 -110)

TRAVIS BECKUM (NYG) +30.5 -110 (Bet down to +27.5 -110)
DEION BRANCH (NE) -30.5 -110

HAKEEM NICKS (NYG) -125 (Bet up to -135)

MARIO MANNINGHAM (NYG) -125 (Bet up to -135)

VICTOR CRUZ (NYG) -130 (Bet up to -145)

GIANTS--FIRST HALF POINTS +15.5 -110 (Bet up to +15.5 -125)

GIANTS--FULL GAME POINTS -12.5 -110 (Bet down to -12.5 +105)

OVER 80.5 EVEN (Bet up to 80.5 OVER -130) .50 cent move is pretty large
UNDER 80.5 -120
**(If No Touchdown--All bets are refunded)

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: