cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
02/04/2012 12:50 PM

SBXLVI Betting Update

February 2, 2012

Update – Thursday Feb. 2 (11:30 a.m. PT)

Wynn Las Vegas sports book director Johnny Avello tried to hang on with the Patriots minus-3 as long as he could, but finally had to give in on Thursday morning when the culmination of Giants money over the first 11 days of action became too much.

“It’s been non-stop Giants money,” said Avello who now has the Patriots -2 ½ (-115). ”I’d rather go now and test the waters to see if I can find some Patriots money out there.”

Avello joins Coast Resorts (-2 ½ -115), MGM Resorts (-2 ½ -125) and the South Point (-2 ½ -110) who have already made the move below -3.

“I figure we have only seen about 12% of the action thus far and I already have the lowest money-line in town (Patriots -130/+110) that hasn’t attracted Patriots money, so I’m going to test it out and see what I can get. I definitely don’t want to be the last to make the move.”

The fact that Avello hasn’t had any large money nibbles on the money line at -130 is pretty telling. It’s a sign sharp money that may like the Patriots are waiting until the sports books get desperate closer to game time when we could see a -125 or -120 with a book crying out for any Patriots money.

Sharp money matters very little in the overall equation for the Super Bowl, but it’s always nice to use their bets as a barometer to what is attractive.

With all the action that has occurred thus far, Avello thinks this year’s Super Bowl numbers will beat last year’s $87.4 million handle throughout Nevada last year.

“Action is already bigger early than last year,” said Avello. “I don’t know if we can get to the record ($94.5 million in 2006), but I think we’ll beat 2011. Between the massive following of the two teams and a low spread, I would be surprised if it didn’t surpass last year.”

Avello has also gotten a ton of action on his props. The biggest mover thus far has been the prop asking who will run the first offensive play.

“We opened the Giants at minus-120 and got a ton of action early and then I come to find out that the reason behind all the bets is that the Patriots have deferred 27 straight times,” Avello said with a chuckle. “So we’ve moved it pretty quick up the ladder to minus-240, and who knows, the Giants could win the toss and defer themselves just to begin the game by not letting Belichick get his way.“

Update – Monday Jan. 30 (1:00 p.m. PT)

We’ve been commenting a lot about the action at the South Point because they have essentially been the story on the Super Bowl betting season in Las Vegas. While every other book in town has been dealing either a -2 ½ (-120) or a -3 (EV), the South Point deals exclusively with flat numbers (-110) making their moves to -2 ½ and -3 the most attractive in the land.

In a matter of less than a half hour Monday afternoon, the South Point got a few large wagers that pushed the number back and forth again, which makes it four times bouncing on and off the key number. A massive wager on the Patriots at -2 ½ (-110) pushed them to their threshold at that number forcing them back to -3 (-110). Within 15 minutes, they immediately reached the threshold at +3 (-110) with a rapid succession of limit Giants money as though the bettors were waiting.

Anyone with sharp money betting limits knows that the best place to get the most value with the Super Bowl is with the South Point, so just about every group in town is on full alert to what is going on there. Why pay the added juice if you want to take the Giants +3 and why lay more than -110 on the Patriots if wanting to lay -2 ½?

The actual amounts of the wagers are not for public knowledge, but to give an idea based on past occurrences, just assume that the wagers are anywhere from $20,000 to $75,000 with a threshold at each move being around $100,000 to $150,000. That’s a lot of cheese to be churning with six days of action still remaining.

For now, the South Point has the Patriots -2 ½ (-110), again.

Update – Sunday Jan. 29 (12:30 p.m. PT)

Another Las Vegas sports book joined the small minus-2 ½ party Saturday when Coast Resort properties moved the Patriots to -2 ½ (-120). They join MGM Resorts (-2 ½ -125) and the South Point (-2 ½ -110) as the only books below -3.

Cantor Gaming sports books have been steady at Patriots -3 (-105) and the director of the books, Mike Colbert, says action has been great.

“We have almost the exact same amount of money of each side," said Colbert. “The only thing we are long on right now is the Giants money-line (+125).”

Colbert has a very fair money-line price posted compared to most of the other books which have the Patriots at -135 or -140.

After the initial rush of almost everyone having to get a piece of the Giants, it appears the action has leveled off a bit with smaller Patriots money showing up.

Update – Saturday Jan. 28 (12:30 p.m. PT)

Without any full limit wagers on the Giants at +3-flat, it still didn't take long for the South Point to find their threshold and move back to Patriots -2 ½ (-110). This was the South Point's second move to -2 ½. The first time they found out that there was large Patriots money to be had rather quickly and bounced back up to -3.

They've been at -2 ½ since Friday night, but haven't gotten the initial type of Patriots money they did when they first moved. Since moving to -2 ½, small money is still coming fast and furious on the Giants. The majority of Super Bowl bettors don't care what the line is. Rather, they just want a ticket that says Giants. This has been the case everywhere since the line first opened on Sunday.

The majority of Las Vegas Sports Books still have the Giants +3 (-120) with MGM Resorts still holding solid with the Patriots -2 ½ (-125).

The LVH Super Book opened their world famous Super Bowl propositions Thursday evening with the sheets flying off the rack almost as fast as they could print them. The initial action was good as well, but the majority of the betting will take place when all the other sports books open their props are reveal several middle opportunities.

Over the years, some of the best middles have occurred on yardage props where the bettor can get up a 10 to 15-yard free roll with running backs or wide receivers and a chance to win both bets by just shopping around.

Update – Thursday Jan. 26 (4:00 p.m. PT)

South Point found all the money they needed on Patriots -2 ½ (-110) and moved back to -3 (-110) until they regroup again Friday. What they have done is basically shown the entire city of Las Vegas that there is money to be had on the Patriots at -2 ½ which should go a long way to dictating where the solid spread sits next week.

Update – Thursday Jan. 26 (3:45 p.m. PT)

Minus-2 ½-flat could become a scarce number in Las Vegas soon. Cal-Neva sports books went from -2 ½ (-120) back to -3 (EV) Thursday while the only -2 ½-flat in the world remained at the South Point they've been finding Patriots money.

"We know that there is big money to be had with the Patriots -2 ½-flat (-110)," said South Point sports book director Bert Osborne, who runs the only book in Las Vegas that uses exclusively flat numbers.

"With the way we book (flat numbers), it's going to take a little more to get us off the number, but at least it's nice to know that there are people out there supporting the Patriots," said Osborne who has been getting an influx of Giants money throughout the week since opening the Patriots -3 ½ on Sunday.

"I'll talk with Michael (South Point owner Michael Gaughan) tomorrow and see where we want to be positioned based on all the betting action we've had. I think we have enough data through the first few days to figure out on each side of '3', what type of action we'll get the rest of the way."

Jay Rood at the MGM Resort properties remains comfortable with his -2 ½ (-125) line and says he's been getting good two-way action.

"We're treading water this week and haven't been pushed one way or another. Next week we'll re-evaluate everything and see where we want to be based on the money that has come in. It's very apparent the public likes the Giants."

Update – Wednesday Jan. 25 (4:00 p.m. PT)

The day after MGM Resorts moved the Patriots to -2.5 (-125) because of an onslaught of Giants money, South Point sports book director Bert Osborne followed suit, but gave a much meatier bone for sharp money -- if any -- to sink their teeth into by offering the Patriots at -2.5-flat.

"I had enough and I figured while it was still early enough, I'd test the waters a little and see if -2.5-flat actually had some value," said Osborne. "I think it does, but I've only had the move up for a half-hour and it’s still all Giants money."

The public doesn't seem to care what the line is on the Giants whether it's betting into a bad money-line or taking the almost meaningless +2.5. As of right now, all they know is they want the Giants on Super Bowl Sunday.

"We'll see where this takes us," said Osborne. "We're probably going to take about four times as much risk on this move, at this stage, than we would in a regular playoff game."

After over 24 hours of action, the MGM Resort properties are happy with their decision to jump out early Tuesday.

"We're pretty balanced at -2.5 (-125) right now since the move," said VP of race and sports Jay Rood.

More Las Vegas sports books may soon follow to the land below a field goal spread. No one wants to be left out without any Patriots money, if there is any to be had.

Update – Wednesday Jan. 25 (4:00 a.m. PT)

Just after I wrote about the sports books not wanting to go minus-2 ½, Jay Rood, VP of race and sports at MGM Resorts, had enough of all the early action on the Giants through Tuesday and tested the waters with Giants +2 ½ (-125).

"We we’re just getting too much money at a rapid pace on the Giants at all stages that we moved the line on from Sunday night until now," said Rood who opened the Giants +3 ½. "I’d rather make the move now and see what happens early on before the rush happens next week."

Most Las Vegas sports books still have the Patriots -3 (EVEN) with Lucky’s sports books showing a -3 (+105) on the Patriots. These next few days will be telling as to what we’ll see next weekend when the books will be more stubborn and set on their number.

Jay Kornegay and his staff are working feverishly to get all 350 Super Bowl props out by Thursday afternoon which will send a major rush to windows everywhere. The LVH Super Book sets the standard around town, and the world for the matter, on what the market price dictates.

Sharp players from everywhere will be in full force looking for an edge on the propositions with hopes of finding several middle opportunities with the varied prices around town.

Even though Kornegay won’t say so himself, the likely reason he is waiting longer than usual to open the props is because he and his staff seem to do all the work for everyone in town. There have been more than a few books in Las Vegas that have actually cut and pasted their logo on the Hilton sheet and used every one of their props and bet numbers to a tee, claiming it as their own.

When the props are released, we’ll have an update on some of the biggest movers as well as some of the biggest variances from what other sports books who work did their own have.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
02/04/2012 12:53 PM

Super Bowl Quarterbacks

February 2, 2012

For the fifth straight year, the Super Bowl will showcase two of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL squaring off for the title. Both the Giants and Patriots rely on solid play from their signal-caller to be successful, as that will no doubt be the case again on Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. We'll take a look at these Super Bowl winning quarterbacks and see which one will pick up another ring.

Tom Brady is playing in his fifth "Super Sunday" game for the Patriots, while compiling a 3-1 record through his first four Super Bowl appearances. The last time Brady played in this game came four years ago against the Giants, a 17-14 setback, sending New England to its first and only loss of the season. The Patriots failed to cash as 12 ½-point favorites, the third time New England lost against the spread as 'chalk' in the Super Bowl (Panthers and Eagles).

The Giants' defense held New England's offense to 274 yards in the Super Bowl XLII win, while limiting Brady to just one touchdown pass. In 19 games that season, Brady put together multiple-touchdown efforts 16 times, but his only score against the Giants came in the final three minutes of regulation to Randy Moss. On the flip side, New York received several big plays on the game-winning drive from the brother of Brady's arch-rival.

Eli Manning orchestrated the most improbable play in Super Bowl history with his escape from a sack, followed by a 32-yard completion to David Tyree. That magical throw led to the winning connection to Plaxico Burress in the final minute of play, capping off a Super Bowl title as a Wild Card team. The second time around will be a challenge, but Manning can become the 11th quarterback to win multiple Super Bowl championships.

Manning attempted a season-high 58 passes in the NFC Championship triumph at San Francisco two weeks ago, 20-17 as short road underdogs. The Giants' quarterback threw two touchdown passes in the win, the fourth straight game that Manning has put together multiple scores (11 TD's in this stretch). The most recent time Manning faced the Patriots in November, he led them on another comeback in the last minute, but this time around it came in Brady's backyard.

The Giants and Patriots played a scoreless first half in Week 9 at Gillette Stadium, but the two teams erupted for a combined 44 points in the second half. The lead changed hands three times in the final three minutes, as the Giants came out on top, 24-20 as nine-point 'dogs. Manning threw for 250 yards, while hitting Jake Ballard for a one-yard strike with 15 seconds left in the game to give New York a 6-2 start to the season. Brady racked up 342 yards and two touchdowns, but also threw a pair of interceptions in the loss.

Several of's top handicappers weighed in on which quarterback they depend on heading into Sunday. Micah Roberts said, "I think both Manning and Brady will have good days, but I'd lean to Brady having less errors. Even though we want to focus more on current form with Manning, it's hard to not forget the Eli that got mired in a four-game losing streak."

Marc Lawrence believes that both these former Super Bowl MVP's have their work cut out for them, "Statistically I like Manning's chances against the league 31st-ranked secondary, although Brady enters off a season-worst effort and is more likely to return to the norm rather than further regress."

Pat Hawkins is buying into Big Blue's chances on Sunday, "My gut feeling tells me that Eli should have the advantage in this matchup, going against a statistically weak Patriots defense. He should continue to ride the hot hand and hit his wide receiver targets all day. I’m sure the Patriots' coaching staff will have some surprise for Manning, knowing that giving him more than 2-3 seconds to find a receiver will not work."

From a props perspective, Manning is listed at 310 ½ passing yards, while Brady's passing yards is set at 316 ½, according to the LV Hotel & Casino Sportsbook. Brady surpassed the 317-yard mark 11 times, including four of the last six games. Manning eclipsed the 311-yard barrier in 10 games, while throwing for at least 316 yards in the playoff wins over the Packers and 49ers.

In the touchdown department for props, Brady's number is set at 1 ½, as you would need to bet $3.30 to win $1.00 on the 'over.' On the flip side, money can be made on the 'under' of this bet with a $1.00 risk to win $2.70. For Manning, the odds are steep on the 'over' bet of 1 ½ touchdown passes (Bet $2.10 to win $1.00), while an 'under' play wins $1.80 on a $1.00 wager

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
02/04/2012 12:55 PM

Super Bowl Trends

February 3, 2012

The most wagered-on event during the year comes on Sunday with Super Bowl XLVI in Indianapolis. Everyone comes out of the woodwork from novice bettors to professionals for this contest, the final football game until early September. Looking back through Super Bowl history, there are several key things to remember before placing bets for Sunday's showdown.

From a totals perspective, the 'under' has cashed in five of the previous seven Super Bowls, even though last year's game finished 'over' the total between the Packers and Steelers. However, with the total set at 54 for the Giants and Patriots, the 'under' has hit more often than not in Super Bowls listed at 50 or above in the totals department. Since 1990, five of seven games that closed with a total of more than 50 cashed the 'under,' including Super Bowl XLII between New York and New England (55 total, 17-14 final).

Picking the winner and not worrying about the points has helped bettors in the last 11 Super Bowls, with the victorious team covering the spread eight times in this stretch. The only two clubs to win the game and not cash were the Patriots (vs. Panthers and Eagles) and Steelers (vs. Cardinals) since 2001. For the exception of the upset of St. Louis in Super Bowl XXXVI, New England is 1-4 ATS in its five Super Bowl appearances in franchise history.

Even though the game has changed since the first Super Bowl in 1967, one number has stayed consistent regarding AFC East teams against the spread. Since the merger in 1970, AFC East clubs own a dreadful 4-11-1 ATS mark in Super Bowls, while the Patriots are the only team to cover in the last 37 years (Colts in '71, Dolphins in '73 and '74).

The short line doesn't necessarily mean a close game, as seven of the last nine Super Bowls (since 1975) with a closing line between 2 and 3 ½ have resulted in a double-digit victory by the winner. The only two exceptions came in XIII (Steelers 35-31 over the Cowboys) and XLV (Packers 31-26 over the Steelers), while the average margin of victory is 16.6 points per game in these nine instances.

Favorites have cashed in 16 of the last 22 Super Bowls, while the favorite/'over' combination has come in 10 times since 1990. The least frequent combination in this span is the underdog/'over' combo, which only hit in XXXII (Packers over the Broncos) and XXXVII (Buccaneers over the Raiders).

Super Bowl Stories

We've all been there with great calls on Super Sunday, while other games fell apart before the crazy halftime show. Several handicappers from provided us some anecdotes about highlights and lowlights regarding the Super Bowl.

Micah Roberts saw his best and worst moments with the Denver Broncos, starting with Super Bowl XXIV in 1989. "The Broncos finally had a running game with an All-Pro running-back in Bobby Humphrey. I thought this would finally be their chance to get John Elway a win after two Super Bowl defeats. I was only 19 at the time and going to college, but I put up almost everything I had on Denver plus all the points (+12) and then watched in misery as the on-slaught ensued with the 49ers winning 55-10. At least it was apparent early on that I had no chance of winning and got to deal with reality quicker."

However, Roberts picked up his revenge with the Broncos as a huge underdog nine years later against the Packers in Super Bowl XXXII. "My bankroll was much larger then and I played every prop that went along with my scenario of how to beat the Packers. I waited in line to bet a large amount on the opening money-line downtown, didn't even take the points even though it was double-digits. Knowing the only way I could win my bets was by Denver running the ball right down the Packers throats, I played everything I could find on Terrell Davis 'over' and almost everything on Elway 'under' and it worked out to perfection. It still remains my largest overall Super Bowl win. I don't think I lost a single prop bet that day."

Marc Lawrence also went the underdog route in his biggest Super Bowl triumph, "Best advice is using teams playing at a peak level, especially as an underdog. My best Super Bowl win was Giants (+12) over Patriots in Super Bowl XLII. The Pats were undefeated and under enormous pressure to complete a perfect season. They were also showing signs of cracking, riding a 5-game ATS losing skid heading into the game."

From my perspective, the most satisfying Super Bowl win came two years ago when the Saints (+5) picked up their first title as outright 'dogs against the Colts. New Orleans never folded after falling behind early, while the famous call from Sean Payton to pull off the onside kick to start the second half turned all the momentum.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
02/04/2012 12:58 PM

Super Bowl XLVI

February 3, 2012

Four years after the Giants ruined the Patriots’ perfect season and pulled a stunning upset in Super Bowl XLII, these storied organizations are poised to meet again for the right to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.

Most betting shops opened New England (15-3 straight up, 10-8 against the spread) as a 3 ½-point favorite with a total of 56. The number didn’t stay at 3 ½ for long, as most books had the number adjusted to three by Monday morning (Jan. 23). The total has slowly, yet steadily, been reduced as well.

As of Friday afternoon, most spots had the Patriots favored by three at even-money. This means that gamblers taking the Giants have to pay double juice (minus-120 price). The total was all the way down to 54.

The G-Men are plus-125 on the money line (risk $100 to win $125 on the Giants to win outright).

The most difficult aspect of handicapping the side for this Super Bowl is the uncertain status of New England Pro-Bowl tight end Rob Gronkowski, who suffered a high ankle sprain during his team's 23-20 win over Baltimore in the AFC Championship Game.

There really hasn't been much doubt about whether or not Gronkowski will play. The question is how effective he’ll be and for how long. He’ll undoubtedly take a pain-killing injection before the game, which creates even more complexities for bettors to consider.

Will the long halftime make Gronkowski less effective in the second half when the medication begins to wear off? Does that possibility make it a wiser move to simply make a first-half bet on the Patriots? Do you avoid the side until intermission and make a second-half wager when you have a better idea of the impact Gronkowski will or will not have on the game?

Like Green Bay last season, New York (12-7 SU, 11-7-1 ATS) has caught fire at the right time. After a Dec. 18 home loss to a mediocre Washington squad, the Giants’ playoff hopes looked bleak and Tom Coughlin’s job security was called into question (yet again). Since then, however, they have won five in a row.

The G-Men’s march through the postseason began with a 24-2 drubbing of Atlanta in the Meadowlands. Next, New York went to Lambeau Field and dismantled the 15-1 Packers by a 37-20 count as a 7 ½-point road underdog.

In the NFC Championship Game, the Giants’ special teams were the difference in a 20-17 overtime win at San Francisco as two-point underdogs. Despite poor weather conditions, Eli Manning completed 32-of-58 passes for 316 yards and two touchdowns without an interception.

In the extra session, New York had to punt after its opening drive stalled. On the punt return, San Francisco’s Kyle Williams coughed up the ball and the Giants recovered at the 24. Moments later, Lawrence Tynes was true from 31 yards out for his second career game-winning field goal to send the Giants to the Super Bowl.

When these teams met in Foxboro back on Nov. 6, Manning threw a one-yard touchdown pass to tight end Jake Ballard with 19 second remaining to lift the Giants to a 24-20 win as nine-point underdogs. Manning finished with 250 passing yards and a pair of TDs without being picked off.

Brandon Jacobs rushed 12 times for 72 yards and one TD, getting the bulk of the carries with Amhad Bradshaw sidelined with an injury at the time. Victor Cruz had six receptions for 91 yards and drew a pass-interference penalty to set up the game-winning score.

In the losing effort, Brady threw for 342 yards and two TDs, but he was intercepted twice and also lost a fumble. Wes Welker had nine receptions for 136 yards, while Gronkowski had eight catches for 101 yards and one TD.

New York has been an underdog nine times this year, compiling a 7-2 spread record with six outright victories. Meanwhile, New England owns a 6-7 spread record in 13 games as a single-digit favorite.

The ‘over’ has been a money maker for New England this year, cashing at a 12-6 overall clip. The ‘over’ has hit in seven of its last eight games. When the Patriots have had totals in the 50s, the ‘over’ has gone 6-5.

Totals have been an overall wash for the Giants (9-9), but the ‘under’ is 5-1 in their last six games. When they have had totals in the 50, the ‘over’ has gone 4-1.

Kick-off is scheduled for 6:30 p.m. Eastern on NBC.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--New England has won eight consecutive games and hasn’t tasted defeat since the aforementioned loss to the Giants on Nov. 6. The Pats are 5-3 ATS during this stretch.

--There are hundreds of proposition bets available at every betting shop in Nevada and offshore. I suggest that gamblers only use a small portion of their Super Bowl bankroll on these and make one pick (over, under, Pats or Giants) that will make you a winner for the day even if you strike out on all of your props. In other words, just throw out small change on a handful of props for giggles. On that note, I think you take a shot at a big payout by wagering on who will score the first touchdown. Two recommendations: Victor Cruz and/or Aaron Hernandez at 8/1 odds.

--If you like one side or the other in a big way, there are adjusted lines that will get you paid in a big way. For instance, you can take the G-Men at laying 14 ½ points for an 8/1 return. Remember, they just won by 17 at Green Bay. On the flip side, you can take the Pats at minus 17 ½ for a plus-650 payout (risk $100 to win $650).

--According to Senior Oddsmaker Mike Perry, the Patriots have played 65 times since Tom Brady tore his ACL against Kansas City on Sept. 7 of 2008. They have won the coin flip 28 times in those 65 games. In each of those 28 instances, Bill Belichick has elected to defer their choice of getting the ball to the second half. And that’s why the Giants are minus-180 favorites to receive the opening kick (the Pats are +150).

--Tom Brady is the plus-125 ‘chalk’ to win Super Bowl MVP honors. Eli Manning has the second-shortest odds at plus-175 (risk $100 to win $175).

--Here’s a cross-sport prop I like: Tom Brady’s completions at a minus-115 price vs. Draymond Green’s total points and rebounds. I like Brady in this situation for several reasons. I think he’ll have around 25-30 completions (he had 28 in the regular-season encounter), perhaps even more. Green, a star power forward for Michigan State, averages 14.9 points and 10.2 rebounds per game. That comes out to 25.1, but we have reasons to believe he won’t hit his averages in this weekend’s game against arch-rival Michigan. For starters, Green sustained a sprained knee earlier this week in a loss at Illinois. Although he’s expected to play, his minutes might be reduced and it’s fair to suspect that he won’t be at 100 percent. In addition, Green will be facing one of the nation’s premier post defenders in Jordan Morgan, who played a huge role in limiting Green to just seven points (and 11 boards) when these teams played in Ann Arbor a few weeks ago. has already posted NFL futures for next year. Green Bay is the 5/1 ‘chalk’ and the Saints have the second-shortest odds at 6/1. The Pats and Giants are at 7/1 and 20/1, respectively.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
02/04/2012 01:01 PM

Super Bowl XLVI Preview



Super Bowl XLVI
Lucas Oil Stadium - Indianapolis, IN
Kickoff: Sunday, Feb. 5, 6:30 p.m. EDT
Line: New England -3, Total: 55.5

The StatFox Pro Football Pass boasts a 7-3 record against the spread so far this NFL postseason, picking up right where it left off after a wildly successful NFL regular season. It’s now time to focus attention on the Super Bowl, and there has been plenty of talk leading up to Sunday about the similarities between Super Bowls XLVI and XLII. While there are a slew of returnees from the classic—Eli Manning, Tom Brady, Justin Tuck, Wes Welker, Osi Umenyiora, Tom Coughlin and Bill Belichick to name a few—the dynamic of this year’s game is going to be much different. Four years ago, the Patriots went to Arizona as undefeated, double-digit favorites. The number is much smaller this time around, with New England having opened as a three-point favorite.

Big Blue has caught fire at just the right time. They’ve been in do-or-die mode since Week 17 of the regular season, when they dispatched of Dallas for the NFC East crown. Since then, they’ve hammered the Falcons at home, blasted the defending champion Packers in Green Bay and outlasted the Niners and the NFL’s best defense in San Francisco.

Eli Manning is right on par with Tom Brady in the quarterback matchup. Manning has the big-game postseason résumé to match Brady, and he’s playing some of the best football of his career right now. The biggest mismatch of the game will be Manning’s receivers—Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham—against the Patriots’ patchwork secondary. While trotting out a secondary that includes converted WR Julian Edelman and practice squad veterans Sterling Moore and James Ihedigbo makes for an interesting talking point, their play was so poor in the AFC title game that it nearly cost the Patriots the game. Belichick has been unable to come up with a gameplan to slow down opposing passing games all year; with Nicks out and his accuracy shaky, Manning still threw for 250 yards and led two touchdown drives in the final seven minutes in Foxboro.

Brady, however, is still the NFL’s best big-game quarterback. The Patriots have a more versatile running game than they did in Super Bowl XLII, and they could find success on the ground against a Giants defense that’s more interested in getting upfield than it is stopping the run—the Niners did run for 150 yards on the Giants in the NFC title game. The status of TE Rob Gronkowski’s high ankle sprain will certainly limit the touchdown machine in some fashion. Gronk had 101 receiving yards and a late TD catch (that seemed like it would be the game winner) in the teams’ first meeting.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
02/04/2012 01:08 PM

Trending: Super Bowl Statistical Analysis

Here are seven trends and the qualifying play for this Sunday’s game based upon teams’ stats headed into the big game. I the stat isn’t listed here, there wasn’t any significant trend forming:
1) Teams with the edge against the line on the StatFox Outplay Factor Rating have lost five of the last six Super Bowls against the spread.
Qualifier for Super Bowl XLV: Against NEW ENGLAND

2) The team that averages more points per game offensively headed into the Super Bowl is just 2-8-1 ATS (20%) over the last 11 years.
Qualifier for Super Bowl XLV: Against NEW ENGLAND

3) The team with the better won-lost record headed into the Super Bowl is on a 4-11-2 ATS (27%) slide.
Qualifier for Super Bowl XLV: Against NEW ENGLAND

4) The team that converts a better percentage of 3rd-down attempts headed into the Super Bowl is just 3-7-1 ATS (30%) in the last 11 years.
Qualifier for Super Bowl XLV: Against NEW ENGLAND

5) The Super Bowl team that averages fewer yards per rushing attempt on offense is 6-10-2 ATS (38%) in the last 18 games.
Qualifier for Super Bowl XLV: Against NEW YORK GIANTS

6) The team with the better turnover differential heading into the Super Bowl is 1-7 ATS (13%) over the last eight years.
Qualifier for Super Bowl XLV: Against NEW ENGLAND

7) The Super Bowl team that allows more yards per rushing attempt on defense is 4-9-2 ATS (31%) in the last 15 games.
Qualifier for Super Bowl XLV: Against NEW ENGLAND

If you were counting, that was six Against New England, and only one Against New York. Is that a hint of what’s to come? The StatFox Pro Football Pass gets you all the insight you need for the big game.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
02/04/2012 01:10 PM

Trending: Past Super Bowl Trends

The 2006 Super Bowl run by Pittsburgh was the game that dramatically changed the route to becoming a champion in the NFL. That was the first time a No. 6 seed emerged to win the Lombardi Trophy. Since then we have seen Wild Card teams Indianapolis, New York Giants and Green Bay win title. Three years ago, we saw a No. 4-seeded NFC team that won just nine games in the regular season – the same number the Giants won in 2011 -- come within seconds of winning the Super Bowl. While the Cardinals lost in heartbreaking fashion, they still managed to cover the point spread, again defying all that we had come to learn about Super Bowl handicapping prior to ’06.
This has naturally made it difficult on handicappers who rely on such things as strength ratings, and past templates that have demonstrated the best teams excelling when it mattered most, the playoffs. Order was restored briefly to the NFL playoff system two years ago, as two No. 1 seeds—New Orleans and Indianapolis—met for the first time in 16 years. But we now once again face a Super Bowl that includes a No. 4 seed.

With that cautionary note out of the way, here are some historical Super Bowl trends, stats and other tidbits that you can either use to handicap Sunday’s game—or, at the very least, offer up at your parties to show off in front of game-watching friends. While on that subject, you can start off by “wow-ing” your company with this bit of interesting Super Bowl history: In the last 11 Super Bowl games, there have been 10 different NFC representatives, but just four from the AFC. Enjoy the trends, where appropriate we will give the most recent game trend.

Favorites in the Super Bowl are 31-14 SU and own an ATS mark of 22-20-3 (52%). However, over the past 10 years, the underdog owns a 7-3 ATS edge.

The NFC holds a 24-21 SU and 24-18-3 (57%) ATS edge all time, and is on a 4-5 SU but 7-2 ATS run since Tampa Bay’s win over Oakland in ’03.

The team that is the higher, or better, playoff seed was just 1-12-2 ATS (8%) in the 15 Super Bowl games heading into last season! Super Bowl XLIV didn’t factor into this because both Indianapolis and New Orleans were No. 1 seeds out of their respective conferences.

The team with the better record going in to the game is 28-14 SU. (Note: three times the teams had identical won-loss marks.)

In terms of scoring, the average winning score is 30.2 PPG, with the average losing score being 15.6 PPG, an average winning margin of 14.5 PPG. The Giants of 2008 became the first team in 33 years to win the Super Bowl without hitting the 20-point mark.

There have been 17 previous Super Bowl teams that have failed to reach the 14-point mark. Their record: 0-17 SU & ATS (0%).

There have been 2,058 total points scored in Super Bowls for an average of 45.7 PPG. Over the last seven years, however, that figure is just 43.9 despite the fact that the game has featured such high-powered offenses as Peyton Manning’s Colts (twice), Kurt Warner’s Cardinals, Drew Brees’ Saints, Aaron Rodgers’ Packers and Tom Brady’s record-breaking Patriots team that entered Super Bowl XLII with an 18-0 record.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
02/04/2012 01:13 PM

Trending: Super Bowl Stat Angles

Because of the extra week of preparation and the neutral field environment, neither team in a Super Bowl game will have any artificial advantages. Both are quality teams with exceptional coaching staffs, so they will be prepared to play. As was proven four years ago in the Giants mega-upset of the Patriots, there is no such thing as a physical mismatch in the Super Bowl.
What we’re getting at is that winning games of this magnitude comes down to execution. Some teams might show up planning to pull a few gimmicks, but they won’t be able to do so for the full 60 minutes. The eventual winner is the team that best controls the line of scrimmage, makes the most big plays, and avoids catastrophic mistakes like turning the ball over. In past Super Bowls, the team that accomplished these goals has almost always come out on top. Those familiar with the StatFox FoxSheets know that these factors figure prominently in our computerized game projections.

Rushing yards, passing yards per attempt, turnovers, and time of possession are four key statistical categories that we like to use to determine their relationship to winning, both SU & ATS. The following trends will demonstrate the importance of these statistics:

Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 35-10 SU & 32-10-3 ATS (76%).

Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the NFL title game are 39-6 SU & 33-9-3 ATS (79%).

In the 45 previous Super Bowls, the team that has more turnovers has won just four times SU and six times ATS (13%).

Teams that win the time of possession battle are 32-13 SU & 31-11-3 ATS (74%).

Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 37-2 SU & 33-5-1 ATS (87%).

Teams that win all four categories are 23-0 SU & 21-1-1 ATS. The only ATS loss occurred in Super Bowl XXXIX in Philadelphia’s ATS win versus the Patriots.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
02/05/2012 12:56 PM

Super Bowl XLVI - The Final Word

Super Bowl XLVI between the New England Patriots and New York Giants is just over 24 hours away and we have the latest NFL betting and other information.

The odds opened mostly at New England -3 and giving up some juice. The odds have slowing moved in the Giants direction and Patriots backers can even get them at -2½, although still paying some juice.

The total opened between 55 and 55 ½-points, but has settled in at a lower 54. The Giants defense has been given a lot of praise in the 2-week lead up to the game and that’s likely played a factor in the total moving down.

Looking at the Don Best injury report, there are no players even listed as questionable. New England tight end Rob Gronkowski is being called questionable by his team, but everyone knows he will play despite suffering a high ankle sprain a little less than two weeks ago.

The man called ‘Gronk’ is obviously huge in the passing game with 1,550 receiving yards and 20 TDs through 18 games. However, he is also a very good blocker and many experts believe New England will run the ball far more than usual to take pressure off Tom Brady and keep Eli Manning and his receivers off the field.

Giants’ running back Ahmad Bradshaw has missed some practice time with a foot injury, but he’s been playing through it for several weeks and shouldn’t be affected much.

Turning back to the game, the majority of talking heads are predicting it will come down to three factors:

1.Giants pass rush vs. Patriots offensive line and Tom Brady
2.Giants receivers against Patriots cornerbacks
Let’s start with the last one first. The turnover margin was 4-2 in the first meeting between the teams on November 6. Brady threw two interceptions and the Giants won 24-20 as 9-point road underdogs.

An ESPN article before the conference title games stated that since 2000, teams with a +1 turnover margin in the NFL playoffs win at a 71.9 percent rate. A two or more negative turnover margin is almost certain doom, although the Patriots pulled off the feat last game versus Baltimore, surviving 23-20 despite losing the turnover battle 3-1.

Turnovers are hard to predict, so we bring in the experts – the Super Bowl props oddsmakers. The odds of Tom Brady throwing at least one interception are -155, while it’s -200 for Eli Manning. That means it’s more likely Manning throws a pick despite having just one in three playoff games and Brady with two against Baltimore.

The Giants pass rush generated 48 sacks in the regular season (tied for third) and nine more in the playoffs. Jason Pierre-Paul led the way during the regular season with 16 ½, but Osi Umenyiora (nine) Justin Tuck (five), Chris Canty (four) and Mathias Kiwanuka (3 ½) can also bring pressure.

New York’s defensive line has been doing a lot of talking this week, starting with Pierre-Paul claiming Brady was feeling pressure in the first meeting when Giants defenders weren’t even around him. That tweak provides a little extra motivation, not that Brady needs any.

The matchup of the Giants receivers versus the Patriots corners has been analyzed to death, but there’s still no answer other than New England has to avoid the big play and concede that many yards will be given up.

The one hope is coach Bill Belichick. He has engineered two masterful Super Bowl defensive game-plans before. One was New England beating Kurt Warner and St. Louis 20-17 in 2002. The other was as Giants d-coordinator in 1991, beating Jim Kelly and Buffalo 20-19.

Most of the current positive talk for New England is conjecture that New York can’t beat the legendary combo of Brady and Belichick three times in a row. The other matchup was of course the Super Bowl upset (17-14) as 12½-point ‘dogs four years ago, which could be avenged at least somewhat with a Pats win.

Some Patriots backers also point to the fact that owner Robert Kraft’s late wife Myra will inspire the team with the ‘MHK’ on the jerseys,. That will be a small factor in my opinion, just like the trash talk that’s gone on.

There has been nothing over the past five days to change my opinion on this outcome. I’m sticking with the Giants to win outright (+130 money line), plus the ‘under’ 54 points in a 27-24 final.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
02/05/2012 01:02 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
01/22/12 2-­2-­0 50.00% -­100 Detail
01/15/12 2-­2-­0 50.00% -­100 Detail
01/14/12 2-­0-­0 100.00% +­1000 Detail
01/08/12 2-­2-­0 50.00% -­100 Detail
01/07/12 3-­1-­0 75.00% +­950 Detail
Totals 11-­7-­0 61.11% +1650

Sunday, February 5

Game Score Status Pick Amount

N.Y. Giants - 6:30 PM ET New England -3 500

New England - Under 53 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: