cnotes Posts:33125 Followers:38
09/11/2011 09:36 AM


Week 1

Numbers game: Six NFL teams that will rise or fall this season

The Green Bay Packers seemingly have nowhere to go but down.

The Packers, after getting into the playoffs as the NFC's No. 6 and final seed, made a memorable postseason run last winter that ended with them beating the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Super Bowl.

However, when the Packers' expected win-loss record from 2010 is taken into account, it appears they are headed for even better things in 2011. The Packers should have won 12.1 games and lost 3.9, but finished 10-6 last season.

Expected win-loss record is an estimate of what a team's record should have been considering their points scored and allowed in a season, working off the Pythagorean formula for baseball that was devised by noted statistician and writer Bill James. As in baseball, football teams that underperform watch their expected records usually increase in win totals the following year while teams that exceed their expected records tend to fall back.

With that in mind, and the opening of NFL season almost here, let's take a look at three teams most likely to improve and three most likely to regress.

2010 regular season records and records against the spread in parenthesis.


Tennessee Titans (6-10, 8-8 ATS)

The Titans finished with double-digit losses last season despite outscoring opponents. They averaged 22.1 points a game and allowed 21.1 for an expected record of 8.5-7.5. That and the fact they lost eight of their last nine games are the primary reasons why long-time coach Jeff Fisher was fired and replaced by offensive line coach Mike Munchak.

The Titans feel having more stability at quarterback will help them improve under new offensive coordinator Chris Palmer as well as take pressure off star running back Chris Johnson. Veteran Matt Hasselbeck was signed as a free agent and will serve as a mentor to rookie QB Jake Locker.

Green Bay Packers (10-6, 9-7 ATS)

The Packers underachieved in the regular season last year as they barely got into the playoffs, needing to win their last two games despite having the second-best point differential in the league at 9.2, scoring 24.2 points a game and giving up an average of 15.0. Of course, they more than made up for it in the postseason by beating the Philadelphia Eagles, Atlanta Falcons and Chicago Bears in the NFC playoffs then downing the Steelers 31-25 in the Super Bowl.

Part of the reason the Packers figure to be improved is better health. They won it all last season despite placing 15 players on the injured reserve list. Two of the those players, running back Ryan Grant and tight end Jermichael Finley, figure to make an offense, led by star quarterback Aaron Rodgers, even stronger.

Cincinnati Bengals (4-12, 7-9 ATS)

The Bengals went from AFC North champions in 2009 to one of the worst teams in the NFL last season, losing nine games in a row at one point. The Bengals, though, weren't quite that awful as they were outscored by 4.6 points a game (24.7-20.1), which translates to 6.1-9.9 expected record.

While coach Marvin Lewis survived the four-win season, the Bengals hired Jay Gruden to replace Bob Bratkowski as offensive coordinator. Gruden has an intriguing number of young players to work with, including wide receiver A.J. Green, quarterback Andy Dalton and second-year tight end Jermaine Gresham.


Atlanta Falcons (13-3, 11-5 ATS)

The Falcons had the best regular season record in the NFC last season then were knocked off by the Packers at home in their first playoff game. Perhaps it shouldn't have been a surprise since the Falcons' expected record was worse than the Packers at 11.2 wins and 4.8 losses. They scored 25.9 points a game and allowed 18.0.

While preseason results usually mean nothing, there were some disturbing signs in the Falcons’ 0-4 mark. The biggest concern is running back Michael Turner, who looked a step slow after undergoing offseason surgery to repair a torn groin muscle. High-priced cornerback Dunta Robinson was slowed by a hamstring injury after a disappointing first season with the Falcons last year.

New England Patriots (14-2, 13-3 ATS)

While doubting a Bill Belichick team is rarely a good idea, it is instructive to remember that the Patriots had the best regular season record in the NFL last year but were bounced out of the playoffs by the Jets at home. That came after the Patriots had an expected record of 12.3-3.7, allowing 32.4 points a game and giving up 19.6.

Quarterback Tom Brady had an incredible 36-to-4 touchdown/interception count last year. Those numbers are sure to suffer some natural regression and the 34 year old also showed signs of being a little less nimble in the pocket during the preseason. Meanwhile, wide receiver Chad Ochocinco had a hard time learning the offense since being signed as a free agent.

Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8, 9-7 ATS)

The Jaguars were a .500 team last season but should have been worse. Their point differential of -5.1 (22.1-26.2) worked out to a 6.4-9.6 expected record.

The Jaguars want to open up their offense and throw more deep passes and quarterback David Garrard was ill-suited to making such throws, leading Jacksonville to cut him Tuesday. Rookie Blaine Gabbert is still learning the offense, so that leaves backup Luke McCown as the Week 1 starter. The running game is a question as well. Maurice Jones-Drew underwent knee surgery in the offseason and backup Rashad Jennings will miss the season with a knee injury.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33125 Followers:38
09/11/2011 09:38 AM


Week 1

NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 1

Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)

Why Lions cover: QB Matt Stafford once again healthy. Detroit covered last five of 2010 season and has been good underdog bet, cashing four in a row in that role. Home is where ATS losses are for Buccaneers, in a 5-16 ATS slide at Raymond James. Lions 7-1 ATS in last eight of this rivalry, 4-0 ATS on last four trips to Tampa.

Why Tampa covers: Surprising development of young QB Josh Freeman, who led Bucs to 7-2-1 ATS mark in final 10 games last season. Tampa 6-2-1 ATS in last nine vs. NFC.

Total (41): Under 12-4 in Bucs’ last 16 season openers, but over 3-0-1 in Tampa’s last four at home and 9-3-1 in Lions’ last 13 overall.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-1)

Why Steelers cover: Division dominance, cashing in last six against AFC North. Defending AFC champs also a consistent cover vs. Ravens, at 5-1-1 ATS in last seven overall and 9-4-1 in last 14 visits to Baltimore. John Harbaugh’s troops just 2-6-1 ATS in last nine division starts.

Why Ravens cover: Good as a chalk and good in Week 1, covering four of last five in each spot.

Total (36): Two defensive-minded teams should make under the lean (7-2 in Steelers’ last nine season openers, 10-3 in Ravens’ last 13 Week 1 games). Yet over is 7-3-1 in last 11 of this rivalry.

Philadelphia Eagles at St. Louis Rams (+4.5)

Why Eagles cover: Coach Andy Reid played farmer during summer, harvesting a bumper crop of free-agent standouts to go with superstar QB Michael Vick. Philly 7-1-1 ATS in last nine vs. St. Louis. Rams cashed in just one of its last 11 season openers (1-9-1 ATS) and are on 15-33-1 ATS dive in September games.

Why Rams cover: QB Sam Bradford should improve in Year 2, and running back Steven Jackson is healthy. St. Louis on a 7-3 ATS uptick in its last 10 and 5-2 ATS in last seven games at home. The home team has gone 6-2-1 ATS in last nine of this rivalry.

Total (43.5): Eagles went over in last six roadies, but under is on surges of 5-1 in Philly’s last six Week 1 starts, 5-0 in Rams’ last five season openers and 4-0 in this rivalry.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-6.5)

Why Bengals cover: Despite awful 4-12 SU mark last year, squad went 4-1 ATS in final five games and has cashed in four of last five September contests. In this Ohio rivalry, the underdog has covered in seven of last eight meetings. Browns on ATS purges of 2-6 laying points, 0-4 at home, 0-4 in AFC North and 1-10-1 in Week 1.

Why Browns cover: Bengals don’t have much to offer: No Carson Palmer at QB, no Chad Ochocinco or Terrell Owens at WR, starting a rookie QB in Andy Dalton, and starting RB Cedric Benson just returned from short stint in Texas jail. Cincy in 2-5 ATS rut as road pup.

Total (35.5): Under 5-2 in last seven meetings between these two, 8-2 in Bengals’ last 10 division tilts and 4-1 in Browns’ last five overall.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1)

Why Titans cover: Have cashed in last four season openers and 11 of last 14 September outings. New coach Mike Munchak should have attention of players, who may have tuned out Jeff Fisher after 16 seasons. Jags just dumped starting QB David Garrard.

Why Jaguars cover: Have covered in 10 of last 12 Week 1 games and are 4-1 ATS in last five laying points.

Total (37.5): Jags on host of over runs, including 8-2 overall and 6-1 in conference play, but total has gone low five of last six in this rivalry. Titans on 8-2 under stretch in AFC South.

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-6)

Why Bills cover: Went 7-3-1 ATS in last 11 of 2010 campaign. Buffalo has K.C.’s number at betting window, covering last four meetings and five of last six at Arrowhead. Chiefs in pointspread ruts of 4-11-1 as chalk and 1-7 against AFC foes.

Why Chiefs cover: Favorite has gone 4-1 ATS in last five of this rivalry. Preseason rarely a great indicator, but Buffalo scored 10 or less in three of its four exhibition games.

Total (40.5): Under on tears of 8-1 in this rivalry, 7-3 overall for Buffalo, 10-3 for Bills in Week 1, 5-1 overall for K.C. and 5-1 at home for the Chiefs.

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-9)

Why Colts cover: Veteran leadership of just-called-off-the-couch QB Kerry Collins? Maybe not. But Indy sports ATS streaks of 6-1 as a pup and 5-1 as a road dog. Texans 2-5 ATS in last seven at home, and breakout RB Arian Foster’s status uncertain.

Why Texans cover: No Peyton Manning. It’s looking like Manning won’t play for Colts. Indy also 2-5 ATS in its final seven games last season.

Total (43): Two of NFL’s top scoring teams last year – Indy fourth (27.2 ppg) and Houston ninth (24.4 ppg). This rivalry has featured plenty of points lately, with the over 10-2 in last 12 clashes overall and 6-0 in last six in Houston. Over also 10-1 in Colts’ last 11 on highway.

Atlanta Falcons at Chicago Bears (+2.5)

Why Falcons cover: Road warriors have cashed last four on highway and five in a row as a road chalk. Ended last season on 7-2 ATS surge and are 10-3 ATS in last 13 Week 1 affairs.

Why Bears cover: Covered in four of last five overall and are 7-3 ATS in last 10 as a home dog.

Total (40.5): Under has cashed six straight times in this rivalry and seven in a row in Chicago’s season openers. But the over is on sprees of 8-2-2 overall for Atlanta, 4-0-1 for Falcons on road and 6-2 overall for Bears.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5)

Why Seahawks cover: Pete Carroll’s troops 6-2 ATS in last eight NFC West games. Niners 4-8 ATS in last dozen games of 2010 campaign.

Why 49ers cover: Neither team has a QB worth writing home about, but Alex Smith gets the nod over Seattle’s Tarvaris Jackson, with home team 4-0 ATS in last four clashes in this rivalry. Seattle also on ATS dives of 2-6 catching points and 6-20 as a road dog.

Total (38): Seattle on over tears of 10-1 overall, 9-1 in NFC and 18-7-1 as underdog. Over went 4-1 in Niners’ last five of 2010 season and 4-1-1 in San Fran’s last six division contests.

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (-7)

Why Panthers cover: Carolina league-worst 2-14 SU last season, but in this rivalry, Panthers cashed in five of last seven, road team is on 5-1 ATS swing and underdog has covered four of last five. Arizona on ATS slides of 2-6 overall, 2-6 in September and 0-4 as home chalk.

Why Cardinals cover: Superior edge at quarterback, with Kevin Kolb (acquired from Eagles) light years ahead of Carolina rookie Cam Newton. Panthers cashed just twice in final 10 games last year and are in further ATS ruts of 0-6 in September, 0-4 catching points and 1-5 on highway.

Total (36.5): Over 4-1-2 in Panthers’ last seven as a pup and 7-2 in Cards’ last nine at home.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (+3)

Why Giants cover: Tom Coughlin’s troops are spread-covering demons on the highway, carrying ATS streaks of 27-12 overall, 14-5 as road chalk and 4-1 in Washington. Redskins, meanwhile, just 6-14-2 ATS in last 22 at FedEx Field.

Why Redskins cover: Finished last year on modest 3-0-1 ATS uptick. Got rid of headache Albert Haynesworth.

Total (37.5): Over 9-3 in Giants’ last dozen division tilts, but under is on runs of 6-1 overall for Redskins, 16-7 at home for Washington and 6-2 in this rivalry.

Minnesota Vikings at San Diego Chargers (-9)

Why Vikings cover: Well, they have no positive ATS trends to speak of, but they still have all-world RB Adrian Peterson. And hey, now they’ve got Donovan McNabb. He’s no Favre, and that’s a good thing.

Why Chargers cover: Bolts went 6-2-1 ATS in final nine last season and 4-1 ATS in last five at home. Vikes in ATS plunges of 3-8 overall, 3-9 in roadies and 1-9 as dogs.

Total (41.5): Under on surges of 6-2 overall for Vikings, 4-0 in Minnesota road contests and 4-0 in Chargers’ last four home starts.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets (-4.5)

Why Cowboys cover: Coach Jason Garrett, who took over midstream last year, helped Dallas close season on 6-2 ATS run, and Cowboys have covered five straight from the underdog role.

Why Jets cover: Rex Ryan’s confident group, which has reached last two AFC title games, has cashed in six of last seven September starts.

Total (40.5): Over is 13-3 for Dallas, 18-6 for New York, 6-1 with Cowboys as underdogs and 7-3 with Jets as favorites.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+7)

Why Patriots cover: Tom Brady & Co. on several pointspread upswings, including 44-21-3 ATS on the highway and 22-10 as road favorites. Road team 6-2 ATS in last eight in this rivalry. Miami 17-45-1 ATS in last 63 at home.

Why Dolphins cover: Fish on an 11-3 ATS run from underdog role, and the pup has grabbed the cash in five of last seven Dolphins-Pats contests.

Total (45.5): When the Pats are playing, scoreboards tend to light up. They led the NFL at 32.4 ppg last year - nearly five ppg higher than second-place Chargers. New England carries over streaks of 16-5 overall, 6-1 in AFC East action and 11-3 in season openers. Miami on over upticks of 11-4-1 at home and 5-1 as a home dog.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3)

Why Raiders cover: Went a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS inside the AFC West last year and have owned this rivalry lately, going 8-2 ATS in last 10 overall and cashing in their last five trips to Mile High. Denver on boatload of bad ATS streaks, including 3-8-1 at home, 8-20-2 in division and 11-25-2 at home.

Why Broncos cover: Gave boot to failed coach Josh McDaniels, brought in veteran John Fox. Also realized Tim Tebow is not yet of starting caliber, and in fact might not even be a second-stringer.

Total (40): Over has been the play in six of last eight Raiders-Broncos clashes and is 16-5 in Denver’s last 21 overall, 8-0 in Broncos’ last eight at home and 9-3 in Oakland’s last dozen AFC contests.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33125 Followers:38
09/11/2011 09:39 AM


Week 1

NFL Week 1 weather report

You’ve covered all the bases when it comes to making your NFL betting picks for Week 1. But have you checked out the weather? Here’s a look at the games expected to face the elements this Sunday.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-1, 36)

This AFC North battle deserves the perfect setting, and nature will provided it Sunday afternoon. Showers are in the forecast for kickoff, giving way to thunderstorms in the second half. There’s a 44 percent chance of rain for M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore.

Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (-6.5, 34.5)

The battle of Ohio will also get dumped on, with thundershowers and a 55 percent chance of rain in the forecast for Cleveland.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1, 37.5)

A chance of thunderstorms is called for in Jacksonville Sunday. There’s a 34 percent chance of rain and winds will get up into the mid teens, blowing ESE across EverBank Field.

Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, 41)

One of the toughest games to handicap in Week 1 just got a bit tougher. Thunderstorms could plague Raymond James Stadium in the second half, with a 30 percent chance of rain in the forecast.

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-5.5, 37)

There is a chance of thundershowers for San Francisco Sunday. While there’s only a 19 percent chance of rain, winds will pick up in the second half, blowing WSW across the field.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (+2.5, 38.5)

Landover, Maryland is expected to see thunderstorms and a 43 percent chance of rain Sunday night.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Jets (-5.5, 40.5)

Thunderstorms are in the forecast for New Jersey, giving way to rain showers. There is a 36 percent chance of the wet stuff at MetLife Stadium with game-time temperatures in the high 60s.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+6.5, 45.5)

The first of the two Monday Night Football games could get rained on. Thunderstorms are in the forecast in South Beach, with a 50 percent chance of showers and game-time temperatures in the mid 80s.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3, 40)

The forecast in Denver is calling for a chance of thunderstorms, but only a 10 percent chance of rain Monday. The skies will clear late in the game with game-time temperatures dipping into the 50s.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33125 Followers:38
09/11/2011 11:35 AM

Trending: NFL Week 1 Trends

While NFL coaches and players lost valuable practice time over the offseason, we at StatFox did not rest. With the opening Sunday of the regular season quickly approaching, we present you a list of 20 powerful trends from season-opening games over the last 10-plus seasons.
1. In games where there is a road favorite, UNDER the total has thrived, going 41-18 (70%) since ’00 in Week 1.
Plays for '11: UNDER the Total in Philadelphia at St. Louis (44), New England at Miami (45.5), N.Y. Giants at Washington (38), Atlanta at Chicago (40.5)

2. Home Favorites that had a worse SU record than their opponent the prior year are 24-7 ATS (77%) in Week 1 since ’01. This includes Green Bay’s win on Thursday.
Plays for '11: Houston (vs. IND), San Francisco (vs. SEA), Denver (vs. OAK)

3. Opening week Home Favorites facing an opponent who was .500 or better last season have converted on 36 of their last 52 opportunities, for 69%. This includes Green Bay’s win on Thursday.
Plays for '11: Baltimore (vs. PIT), Houston (vs. IND)

4. In Non-Divisional Conference games with Road Favorites, the UNDER is on a 19-5 (79%) run in Week 1 of the NFL season.
Plays for '11: UNDER the Total in Atlanta at Chicago (40.5), Philadelphia at St. Louis (44)

5. Road Underdogs in Week 1 that were 6-10 SU or worse the prior season boast an impressive 29-16-2 ATS (64%) record since ’00.
Plays for '11: Detroit (at TB), Buffalo (at KC), Cincinnati (at CLE), Tennessee (at JAC), Carolina (at ARI), Minnesota (at SD), Dallas (at NYJ)

6. In games with extremely high totals, or those at 45.5 or more, the UNDER is an astonishing 22-8 (73%) since ’01. This includes the Over occurring for New Orleans/Green Bay on Thursday.
Play for '11: UNDER the Total in New England at Miami (45.5)

7. Divisional favorites of 3 points or less boast an incredible record 16-5 SU & 15-5-1 ATS (75%) since 2000 on kickoff weekend.
Plays for '11: Baltimore (-1.5 vs. PIT), Jacksonville (-2 vs. TEN), N.Y. Giants (-3 at WSH), Denver (-3 vs. OAK)

8. The public has had a good handle on totals. When they have moved the total more than 2 points in Week 1 games since 2000, they have been correct on 23 of 36 occasions (64%).

9. Don’t read into Week 1 line moves too much as whole. In games this decade where the public has moved the line one way or another, the team they are favoring is just 65-69-1 ATS (49%), a modest loss. However, when the public is favoring a HOME team to where the line moves in their favor by two or more points, that team is 11-2 SU & 11-1-1 ATS (92%).

10. All Favorites of exactly 3 points boast a 34-11 SU & 25-13 ATS (66%) mark in Week 1 since 2000.
Plays for '11: N.Y. Giants (-3 at WSH), Denver (vs. OAK)

11. When a Home team that didn’t make the playoffs the prior year is favored over a Road team that did in Week 1, that host club is on an 11-3 SU & 10-3-1 ATS (77%) run.
Potential Plays for '11: Houston (-8.5 vs. IND), San Francisco (-5.5 vs SEA)

12. There has also been a significant lean to UNDER the total in games where the home team is favored by 4 points or more, 25-15 (63%) since ’05. This includes the Over occurring for New Orleans/Green Bay on Thursday.
Plays for '11: Buffalo at Kansas City, Indianapolis at Houston, Cincinnati at Cleveland, Carolina at Arizona, Seattle at San Francisco, Minnesota at San Diego, Dallas at N.Y. Jets

13. Road underdogs of 3½ points or more in divisional games of the NFL’s opening week are 7-24 SU but 19-12 ATS (61%) since 2000.
Plays for '11: Indianapolis (+8.5 at HOU), Cincinnati (+6.5 at CLE), Seattle (+5.5 at SF)

14. When two winning teams from the prior year have played in Week 1, UNDER the total has gone 21-11 (66%) since ’03. This includes the Over occurring for New Orleans/Green Bay on Thursday.
Plays for '11: UNDER the Total in Pittsburgh at Baltimore, Atlanta at Chicago

15. When the difference in the teams’ PPG Margin from the prior year is 10.0 or greater, the team with the worse differential owns a 23-13 ATS (64%) record in Week 1 since 2001.
Plays for '11: Minnesota (+8.5 at SD), Miami (+6.5 at NE), Denver (-3 vs. OAK)

16. Home Favorites of -6 to -9.5 own an impressive 29-5 SU & 20-14 ATS (59%) in the opening week of the NFL season this decade.
Potential Plays for '11: Houston (-8.5 vs. IND), Cleveland (-6.5 vs. CIN), Arizona (-6.5 vs. CAR), San Diego (-8.5 vs. MIN)

17. Home Favorites of less than a field goal have been a solid bet in Week 1, going 10-5 SU & ATS (67%) since 2001.
Potential Plays for '11: Baltimore (-1.5 vs. PIT), Tampa Bay (-1.5 vs. DET), Jacksonville (-2 vs. TEN), Denver (-3 vs. OAK)

18. More than 59% of the Week 1 NFL games since ’00 have gone UNDER the total. If you’re looking for total edges beyond that, in games with totals of 36 or less, the UNDER is 16-8 (67%) since ‘01.
Plays for '11: Pittsburgh at Baltimore (36), Cincinnati at Cleveland (35.5)

19. Double-digit Underdogs in Week 1 of the NFL season are 3-8 SU & 8-3 ATS (73%) since ’00.
Plays for '11: NONE

20. Road Favorites in NFL Week 1 facing a team that was .500 or better last season are on a 15-10 ATS (60%) run.
Play for '11: Atlanta (-2 at CHI)

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33125 Followers:38
09/11/2011 12:04 PM

Sunday, September 11

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Atlanta - 1:00 PM ET Chicago +1 500
Chicago - Under 40.5 500

Indianapolis - 1:00 PM ET Indianapolis +9 500
Houston - Over 44 500

Buffalo - 1:00 PM ET Buffalo +4.5 500
Kansas City - Over 39.5 500

Tennessee - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +1 500
Jacksonville - Over 37 500

Cincinnati - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland -6.5 500
Cleveland - Under 35.5 500

Philadelphia - 1:00 PM ET St. Louis +3.5 500
St. Louis - Under 43.5 500

Pittsburgh - 1:00 PM ET Pittsburgh +1 500
Baltimore - Under 36.5 500

Detroit - 1:00 PM ET Tampa Bay -1 500 POD
Tampa Bay - Over 42.5 500

Minnesota - 4:15 PM ET San Diego -9 500
San Diego - Over 41.5 500

N.Y. Giants - 4:15 PM ET N.Y. Giants -2.5 500
Washington - Under 39.5 500

Carolina - 4:15 PM ET Carolina +6.5 500
Arizona - Under 37.5 500

Seattle - 4:15 PM ET San Francisco -5.5 500
San Francisco - Under 38 500

Dallas - 8:20 PM ET Dallas +6 500
N.Y. Jets - Over 40 500

Just a heads up......i liked DET when that line came out and i think too many people is on this game..... Only because of what they did in the preseason....Carefull with this one....

Am on the Bucs for my game of the day........

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33125 Followers:38
09/12/2011 12:26 AM

Patriots And Dolphins Start Monday Night Football Slate

The New England Patriots have made some bold moves to their roster as they begin a ‘Super Bowl or bust’ campaign at the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football.

The Don Best odds screen has New England a 6½-7 point road favorite with a total of 45 ½-points. ESPN will have the first half of its doubleheader at 7:00 p.m. (ET) from Sun Life Stadium, followed by the AFC West battle of Oakland at Denver.

New England went 14-2 straight up in the regular season last year, but it was considered a disappointment after a 28-21 home loss to the Jets as 9 ½-point home favorites in the divisional round of last year's playoffs.

The Patriots also lost to Baltimore (33-14) at home in their opening playoff game the year before.

Coach Bill Belichick decided to make a change on defense, switching mostly from a base 3-4 to a 4-3, although he still won’t admit it to the media. Veterans Albert Haynesworth Shaun Ellis and Andre Carter should join the starting front-four in addition to holdover Vince Wilfork.

That defensive line should hold up against the run and generate more pass rush, so the team isn’t last in the league again in third-down defense. One caveat is there could be an adjustment period with so many new players, plus the linebackers adjusting to new responsibilities. Ellis and Haynesworth have also been limited this preseason due to injuries.

Offensively, New England didn’t feel it had to do much after scoring 32.4 PPG last year, tops in the league. Chad Ochocinco was brought it to be an outside threat, but he’s struggling big time to learn the offense. Opposing defenses could take a page from the Jets playbook and load up defenders in the middle of the field, forcing Tom Brady to throw outside.

The offensive line usually does a great job protecting Brady, but was manhandled in the playoffs and also versus Detroit this preseason. Tackle Sebastian Vollmer (back) is listed as doubtful, which means rookie Nate Solder would have to start. Guard Dan Connolly (foot) is also questionable, which could mean a start for newly signed veteran Brian Waters.

Brady is just 4-5 SU and ATS in his nine lifetime starts in Miami. New England did win 41-14 as 1-point underdogs last year, getting three TDs from the special teams and defense. Miami won most recently in 2009, 22-21 as 4 ½-point home ‘dogs.

New England is 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven road games. The ‘over’ is 5-2 in those games, scoring 33.1 PPG.

Miami coach Tony Sparano is back after a disappointing 7-9 SU and 8-8 ATS season, including losing the final three games (SU and ATS). Owner Stephen Ross flirted with the likes Jim Harbaugh, but Sparano got the nod almost by default.

Quarterback Chad Henne seemed to be another certain goner, at least as a starter. Denver’s Kyle Orton was very close to being acquired, but it fell through. The Michigan product Henne has looked better in the preseason, but his weapons are mediocre at best and a lot falls on his shoulders after a 15 touchdown, 19 interception season.

The running back situation has changed dramatically with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams both gone. Reggie Bush was acquired from New Orleans, but he’s not an every-down back. That job supposed to go to rookie Daniel Thomas, but he’s had problems adjusting and is questionable with a hamstring injury.

The defense is an underrated group that finished sixth in the NFL last year in total yards (309.3 YPG) and tied for 13th in points (20.8 PPG). It has a great pass rusher in Cameron Wake (14 sacks last year) and the self-proclaimed top cornerback tandem in the league in Vontae Davis and Sean Smith.

Miami’s injury report is sparse besides Thomas, with offensive tackle Jake Long (knee) listed as probable.

Weather should be in the 80s at kickoff, with some humidity. Those warm conditions favor the Dolphins, although they’re just 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS in their last seven September home games.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33125 Followers:38
09/12/2011 12:29 AM

Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders Renew Rivalry

The second game of the Monday Night Football doubleheader comes from the Mile High City where the Denver Broncos host the hated division rival Oakland Raiders.

Kickoff is scheduled for 10:15 p.m. (ET) and will be televised nationally on ESPN. Denver has held steady as a 3-point favorite since early in the week on the Don Best odds screen.

Though the two rivals have been evenly matched at 5-5 straight up over their last 10 meetings, recent results have favored the Raiders. Oakland has won each of the last three meetings between the teams, both straight up and against the spread. In their two meetings last season, Oakland outscored Denver by a combined 98-37.

Oakland was 6-0 SU and ATS against AFC West opponents in 2010, but struggled at 2-8 outside of the division to finish the season 8-8. The Raiders return most of the players from last year’s team, but lost two very important players in cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha and tight end Zach Miller.

The loss of Asomugha, one of the best cornerbacks in the game, will undoubtedly hurt Oakland’s pass defense; but an improved front seven may help lessen the blow. Miller’s contribution in the passing game will also be missed, and while Kevin Boss was signed as a replacement, he is out for this game with an MCL injury.

Oakland’s offense will once again be led by talented running backs Darren McFadden and Michael Bush. The Raiders gashed through Denver’s defense last season with 592 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns over the two wins.

Denver will look to exploit the weaknesses in Oakland’s secondary with veteran quarterback Kyle Orton under center. Many believed that Tim Tebow would have the chance to run the offense in 2011, but Orton won the job after a far more polished performance in preseason camp.

Denver finished 4-12 a year ago due in large part to their porous defense. The Broncos used the second overall draft pick in the 2011 NFL Draft on linebacker Von Miller, and hope that he can help them turn the defense around, especially against the run.

The Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home openers, but just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against the Raiders. Denver has lost three straight against Oakland at home, and is 0-5 ATS over the last five home games against the Raiders dating back to 2006.

The total for Monday night’s game is set at 40½. Considering the question marks on both defenses, and the fact that six of the last eight meetings have gone above the mark, the ‘over’ may be a popular play in this one.

A few clouds are expected, but there's no chance of rain in Denver on Monday when the temperature should be around 70 at kickoff. The Broncos will stay home for a Week 2 contest against the Bengals while the Raiders remain on the highway with a game in Buffalo.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33125 Followers:38
09/12/2011 12:32 AM

MNF Doubleheader

September 10, 2011

The Week 1 NFL card wraps up on Monday night with a doubleheader of division showdowns. The night concludes with the Broncos hosting the Raiders in a battle of AFC West foes as Denver begins the John Fox era. The first game of the double-dip features the biggest road favorite on the board with New England traveling to Miami.

Patriots (-7, 45 ½) at Dolphins - 7:00 PM EST

New England opens up its season in South Florida after the Patriots swept the Dolphins in 2010. The Pats have failed to win a playoff game since the 2007 AFC Championship after coming up short against the Jets in the divisional round of the playoffs last season. The Dolphins look for any sort of spark to begin the season following a pair of 7-9 campaigns the last two years, while the quarterback situation will be in question.

Miami acquired standout receiver Brandon Marshall in April 2010 to help out Chad Henne, but the Dolphins struggled at times to score touchdowns, while posting a dreadful 1-7 record at home. The Fins picked up Reggie Bush from the Saints after the lockout as their top option out of the backfield, trying to bolster the ground game following the struggles of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams last season. Tony Sparano's club was an underdog just once at home last season as the Fins lost in a controversial finish to the Steelers, but cashed as three-point 'dogs in a 23-22 defeat.

The Patriots cruised the regular season with a 14-2 mark that included an eight-game winning streak to wrap up the regular season. The offense topped the 31-point mark in each of those victories following a 34-14 drubbing at Cleveland in Week 9. The interesting storyline with that Browns' debacle that ties into Monday night is offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, who led Cleveland to over 400 yards in that upset, is now running the Dolphins' offense this season.

Bill Belichick's team cruised past Miami twice last season, including a 41-14 trouncing of the Fins at Sun Life Stadium on a Monday night in Week 4. The Patriots' offense wasn't spectacular, but the defense and special teams carried the load with three touchdowns, while setting up another score thanks to a blocked punt. New England closed as a one-point 'dog that night, while posting a 3-2 ATS mark as a road favorite last season.

The Dolphins have been an effective underdog in Sparano's tenure by compiling a 19-11 ATS ledger when receiving points, even though the record sits at 4-6 ATS as a home 'dog since 2008. These two teams have split the last 10 meetings in South Florida, while the Patriots have won at Sun Life Stadium in consecutive years only once in this span (2007-08).

Raiders at Broncos (-3, 40) - 10:15 PM EST

The week wraps up in Denver with the Broncos seeking revenge for a pair of losses to the rival Raiders last season. Denver opened up as a one-point favorite when Week 1 lines were released months ago, but the decision to retain Kyle Orton as the starting quarterback drove this line up to -3, quieting the Tim Tebow rumors. Oakland is always under the microscope, but the Raiders swept through the AFC West last season with a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS mark.

The Silver and Black dominated the Broncos twice in 2010, including a 59-14 beatdown at Invesco Field as seven-point underdogs. That game was never in doubt as the Raiders scored three touchdowns in the first seven minutes, while building a 38-0 lead in the second quarter. Oakland took care of business at the Black Hole in December with a 39-23 triumph as 9 ½-point favorites in Tebow's first start under center for the Broncos. The Raiders' defense limited Denver to three field goals in the final three quarters, while rushing for 264 yards on the beat-up Broncos' defense.

Orton put up solid passing numbers last season, but that didn't translate into many victories with Denver compiling a 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS record in his 13 starts. The defense will receive a boost this season with DE Elvis Dumervil returning from a pectoral injury suffered in 2010, as the former Louisville standout led the league in sacks in 2009 with 17.

The Raiders are a coin-flip proposition the last two seasons on the highway with an 8-8 ATS mark, but Oakland has lost eight straight games in Week 1 with only two covers in this stretch. The Broncos are opening their season at home for the first time since 2004, when Denver picked up a 34-24 victory over Kansas City in a Sunday night thriller.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33125 Followers:38
09/12/2011 06:05 PM

Raiders at Broncos: What bettors need to know

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3, 40)

THE STORY: Most of the offseason talk surrounding the Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders centered on their respective quarterbacks. No surprise there, except in both cases the quarterbacks in question are not expected to be contributors this season.

Tim Tebow and Terrelle Pryor will be watching from the sideline when Denver opens the season by hosting Oakland in an AFC West matchup on Monday night. Of more consequence, each team will feature new head coaches (John Fox for the Broncos and Hue Jackson for the Raiders) amid renewed optimism that both can challenge for the division crown.

TV: ESPN, 10:15 p.m. ET.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2010: 4-12, 4th, AFC West): Ex-Carolina Panthers coach Fox was brought in to help plug a sieve defense that allowed an NFL-high 471 points last season. Kyle Orton, the subject of major trade rumors in the offseason, returns as the starter after throwing for 3,653 yards and 20 TDs in 13 games last season. Although Brandon Lloyd led the league with 1,448 receiving yards, expect a more balanced offense with Willis McGahee joining former first-round draft pick Knowshon Moreno in the backfield. LB Von Miller was drafted No. 2 overall to bolster the defense, and the pass rush in particular.

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (2010: 8-8, 3rd AFC West): Oakland ended a string of seven straight seasons with double-digits losses, but it couldn’t save head coach Tom Cable’s job. The Raiders went 6-0 against the division, helped in large part by a breakout season from RB Darren McFadden, who finally lived up to his billing as a No. 4 overall pick and was second overall in the league with 128.0 yards from scrimmage per game. With a stable of speedy, young receivers, QB Jason Campbell (2,387 yards, 13 TDs) may be asked to do more in his second season with the Raiders.


1. The Raiders annihilated the Broncos in two meetings last season, outscoring them 98-37. That included a 59-31 thrashing in which McFadden romped for four touchdowns.

2. Denver usually starts the season well, posting an AFC-best 32-18-1 mark in season openers, including winning 16 of the last 22. The Broncos also have won 11 consecutive home games on Kickoff Weekend.

3. In their glory days under owner Al Davis, the Raiders were known as the Kings of Monday Night. Not anymore. Oakland has lost 11 straight games in prime time since beating Denver in November 2008.


The Raiders are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games against AFC West opponents but 1-5 ATS in their last six Week 1 games.

The Broncos are 11-25-2 ATS in their last 38 home games and 8-26-1 in their last 35 games as favorites.

The over is 5-1 in Denver’s last six home games.


This game opened as a pick ‘em at most sportsbooks back in early August but got bet up to Broncos -3. The game is still at Denver by a field goal but the juice is starting to climb (-125 on Sunday afternoon). We could see the line close with Oakland getting 3.5 points.

The total sits at 40.5 and has been around that numbers since oddsmakers first opened the over/under line.

PREDICTION: Broncos 20, Raiders 19. One of the league’s best home-field advantages comes into play as Fox wins his debut – narrowly – and Denver avenges a pair of humbling beatings by Oakland last season.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33125 Followers:38
09/12/2011 06:06 PM

Patriots at Dolphins: Who'll cover the spread?

We’ve got a double-header for the first edition of Monday Night Football this season but we’re zeroing on the first game in this week’s debate.

Russ Loede from tells us why New England is the right play while Kevin Nogle from argues in favor of the home underdog.


Henne without run game

For the Dolphins to function, they have to run the football and control the clock against the Patriots. Rookie running back Daniel Thomas is nursing a hamstring injury and I don't believe the Fish can show New England a balanced offensive attack with Reggie Bush and Larry “I can’t believe I’m not retired” Johnson running the ball.

Bill Belichick, is going to have fun playing games with the erratic and mistake-prone Chad Henne knowing the ground game is absent.

Devin McCourty

A budding star at cornerback, the second-year pro from Rutgers will be asked to shadow the Dolphins best playmaker; Brandon Marshall. McCourty will shut down Marshall and take away Miami’s best offensive weapon in the process.

Brady's quick release

Cameron Wake is a force to be reckoned with but the Pats can limit the pass rusher because of Brady's precise pocket presence. The 2010 NFL MVP will operate fully aware of Wake's presence and ability to change a game.

Fortunately, the scintillating signal caller has a vast array of intermediate weapons to sling the rock to before Cam reaches him. New England’s offense is filled with players who can find space and get open quickly. Mismatches will abound and Brady and the Patriots will find ways to pick apart the Dolphins’ pass defense.


Dolphins Defense

For some reason, Miami's sixth ranked defense from last season has been completely forgotten at the start of this year - and all the Dolphins did was get better.

They have the most incredibly deep defensive line I have ever seen. Jared Odrick, last season's first round draft choice who sat out the year on IR, is now the third string right defensive end behind Randy Starks and Phillip Merling - yet Ordick is seen as a starting caliber defensive end.

Then there's the emergence of Cameron Wake as an elite pass rusher. With his 14 sacks last year and Pro Bowl selection, you would think people would respect the Dolphins' ability to get to the quarterback, but for some reason, they aren't.

And finally, our cornerbacks are amazing. They may not become the "best tandem in the NFL," as Vontae Davis declared earlier this preseason, but they (Davis and Sean Smith) are going to be right there with the best.

This defense is going to be scary, and people just don't realize it yet.

New Offense

Last year, the Dolphins ran an erratic offense. Every time they got into a rhythm, the offensive coordinator Dan Henning would call a random play that would kill the drive. This year, with offensive coordinator Brain Daboll, things appear to be different.

Everyone in Miami is talking about how the offense is "attacking" and "explosive." In 2008, the Dolphins unleashed the Wildcat formation on the Patriots and decimated them with it. The Dolphins will look to establish this new offense in much the same way.

Chad Henne

We all know the Dolphins were talking with the Denver Broncos about acquiring quarterback Kyle Orton. But, that didn't happen, so everyone assumes Miami is a mess behind center.

But, Chad Henne hasn't played like a mess. He actually looked good this preseason and he could be the guy who finally solidifies the QB position in Miami.

Daboll's offense allows Henne to actually audible to any play necessary, instead of just a one play "check with me" option like last year, which will give Henne some needed freedom.

In today's NFL, the success of first year starters like Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, and Mark Sanchez have people expecting a rookie to always come in and immediately demonstrate greatness. We forget that Aaron Rodgers, Phillip Rivers, Tom Brady all sat and developed before getting on to the field. Chad Henne got one year under Chad Pennington before he was made the starter.

Now, in his third year as that starter, Henne appears ready to actually take the reins.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: