cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
On 09/06/2011 12:11 AM in NFL

Cnotes NFL Week # 1 Best Bets !

Analyzing Week 1 Numbers

September 3, 2011

Every season I stress to my clients the importance of patience over the first few weeks of the season. Sports betting offers us a unique advantage over the house only because we are able to consider a wide variety of variables before making a decision. Since we enter the season with nothing but speculation we are actually getting our money in at the same disadvantage as any bettor in the casino. Considering the nature of this offseason we can only hope to be placing a week 1 bet with the same confidence as a decent video poker player.

So this year I am going to make the same plea with everybody, and just like every season I will hear stories of my clients going in with guns blazing. Being aware of this, I should at least offer you some advice that could help even the playing field. So this will be part 1 of a group of articles that will hopefully accomplish just that.

In my opinion, the most important aspect of early season wagering is to bundle similar games together. Since we are knowingly placing wagers at a disadvantage, we have to establish a way to spread that risk around. One of the best ways to achieve this goal is by selecting one or two groups of picks that fit certain criteria.

For example, if you were to select every Week 1 underdog of 7 or more points from 1997 to 2009 you would have won nearly 66% of your games with 25 wins and 13 losses.

That is a good statistical example that I am sure you are familiar with, but it isn't as useful when the Week 1 board doesn't feature enough big point-spread underdogs. If we take a look at the opposite side of the spectrum we find a similar pattern which doesn't get nearly as much recognition.

With about a month to go until kickoff, we have four games that are currently listed at 2 ½-points or less, and a few others that are right on the border. I went back to take a look at what happens when there are four or more games listed under 2 ½-points in Week 1. Since 1997 this has occurred five times, and the favorite has covered 60% of those games (12-8). If you were to have bet every favorite in each one of those five weeks then you would have had three winning weeks, one losing week, and broken even once.

Since this statistic is only made up of 20 games I wanted to expand the search. If we look at only those first weeks where there have been at least 2 such point spreads on the board, then we end up with 36 results. By betting the favorite in each of those 36 games you would have ended up with the same exact win rate of 60% (21-14-1.)

Underdogs getting seven or more in Week 1

Carolina (+7) at Arizona
Minnesota (+9) at San Diego
Miami (+7) vs. New England

Games with point-spreads of 2 ½-points or less

Baltimore (-2.5) vs. Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay (-2) vs. Detroit
Atlanta (-2.5) at Chicago

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
09/06/2011 12:13 AM

Packers Host Saints In NFL Season Opener

If history is any indication, the New Orleans Saints are in big trouble for the NFL season opener Thursday night at the defending champion Green Bay Packers. The Don Best odds screen has Green Bay as 4-point favorites with an NFL betting total of 47-points. NBC will have the kickoff at 8:30 p.m. (ET) from historic Lambeau Field.

The 47-point total is the highest of Week 1. The average total for the 16 opening week games is 40.5 compared to 41.6 last year. Oddsmakers are predicting less scoring with the lockout affecting the offenses more than the defenses.

The defending Super Bowl champion has hosted the Thursday night opener every year since 2004. There has been no hangover with a 7-0 straight up and 5-1-1 against the spread mark. Last year, New Orleans beat Minnesota 14-9 as 4 ½-point favorites.

The Saints went 11-5 SU and 7-9 ATS overall in the regular season last year. They then had a big upset loss at Seattle in the wild-card round, losing 41-36 as 9 ½-point favorites.

New Orleans’ offense saw both its total yards (403.8 to 372.5 YPG) and points (31.9 to 24 PPG) decrease from 2009 to last year. The running game was the biggest culprit from 131.6 YPG to 94.9 YPG.

Injuries played a part in the rushing decline, but the Saints were also looking for a ‘bell cow’ to be the main guy. They traded for an additional first-round pick and selected 2009 Heisman winner Mark Ingram from Alabama. He’ll likely be the starter and backed up by Pierre Thomas. Reggie Bush (traded to Miami) and Chris Ivory (PUP list) are no longer options.

The Saints will still be led by quarterback Drew Brees. He may be unhappy about his current contract negotiations, but he’s great at spreading the ball around, with nine guys having at least 29 receptions last year. Brees finished third in the league in passing yards (4,620), although he did have a career-high 22 picks.

New Orleans’ defense is still smarting after allowing 415 total yards to Seattle in the playoff loss. The ‘D’ feasted on somewhat easier competition the first nine regular season games (16.8 PPG). The last seven (22.3 PPG) heading into the playoffs turned out to be an ominous sign. Defensive coordinator Gregg Williams looks for a strong start this year.

The Packers (14-6 SU, 13-7 ATS) ended last year at 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. They seemed to get stronger with each playoff game, road wins and ‘covers’ at Philadelphia (21-16), Atlanta (48-21) and Chicago (21-14). They were playing so well that they were actually 3-point favorites over Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl (31-25 final).

Aaron Rodgers is arguably the NFL’s best quarterback and could be the next few years with injuries and age affecting Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Greg Jennings (1,265 yards) is back as the top receiver and Rodgers should improve on his 3,922 passing yards.

The running game gets Ryan Grant back after missing almost all of last year with injury. He rushed for 1,253 yards in 2009, but likely won’t get near that with James Starks proven to be a good option down the stretch last year as a rookie.

The defense is an aggressive 3-4 under coordinator Dom Capers and led by superstar pass rusher Clay Matthews. Only Pittsburgh (15 PPG) surrendered less points than the Pack (14.5 PPG) in the regular season. Capers helped dial up the defense in the playoffs too, creating 11 turnovers in the four games, eight interceptions.

The Saints went 6-3 SU, but 3-6 ATS on the road last year (including the playoffs). The ‘over’ was 4-1 in their last five road games, allowing a big 28.4 PPG.

Green Bay was 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS at home last year. The ‘over’ was 4-1 in the last five there, scoring a big 32.4 PPG.

These teams haven’t played each other since 2008. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five, with the ‘over’ 5-0 in that span.

Jennings (knee) is probable for Green Bay on the Don Best injury report. Fellow receiver James Jones (knee) is questionable. New Orleans defensive end Will Smith is suspended for the first two games. Kicker Garrett Hartley (hip) is out and will be replaced by veteran John Kasey.

Weather is expected to be clear and very nice, in the 60s.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
09/06/2011 12:25 AM

The Best of the NFL

Monday, September 05, 2011

The pro football season kicks off this week when the Saints travel to the defending champion Packers, a battle of the last two champs. Despite the fact that the NFC has won two in a row, the AFC has won 9 of the last 14 Super Bowls. Here is a look at some of the best of the NFL.

NY Jets: The Jets do a lot of talking, but when are they going to get to their first Super Bowl since 1969? The bombast of sexy Rexy Ryan and the influx of talent (and characters) have made this another fascinating team to watch. On the plus side, they had the No. 3 defense in the NFL, the No. 4 ground attack and add WR Plaxico Burress. On the cautious side, QB Mark Sanchez left school early and is only in his third year. He had a poor rookie campaign with 12 TDs and 20 interceptions and improved to 17 TDs, 13 picks last season in a run-first offense.

There are 10 returning starters on defense, nine of whom have two years experience in Ryan's system. Outside linebacker Calvin Pace will be in the opening day lineup. Pace, their best pass rusher, missed the first month of the 2009 and 2010 seasons because of a league suspension and a broken foot. "Will we end up being the best defense in football? I think so," the Jets' coach said last week. Despite what you might think, the Jets were 12-4 over the total last regular season.

Cowboys: A bounce back year after a train wreck in 2010? Who wouldn't want all the talent on this team? 31-year old QB Tony Romo was lost with an injury which wrecked their season, but in 2009 he cut down his turnovers with 4,483 yards, 26 TDs and 9 picks. New Coach Jason Garrett has replaced laid back Wade Phillips and brought a tougher edge to training camp. He didn't hesitate to cut flaky WR Roy Williams, sending a message to many players.

The ground game is deep with Felix Jones and WR Dez Bryant is in his second season. Anthony Spencer and Demarcus Ware (15.5 sacks) lead a dynamite defense that gets after quarterbacks. So when are they going to win a big playoff game? That's the question Jerry Jones must be wondering, adding some pressure on the new coach. The Cowboys bring a 12-1 run over the total into the new season.

Saints: Remember us? We were champs two years ago! The rules changes the NFL made over the last seven years was designed to help offenses, so it's no surprise that the Saints have benefitted with a great QB, fast wide outs and a wide-open spread offense. The Saints are again loaded on offense, led by QB Drew Brees (33 TDs, 22 INTs) and a revamped backfield that adds Darren Sproles and rookie first round pick RB Mark Ingram. The defense is attacking and aggressive under fiery Greg Robinson and 2-1 SU/ATS their last three times as a dog.

Steelers: Teams that lose the Super Bowl have a recent history of not even making the playoffs the next season, but that's a trend Pittsburgh is likely to defy. The Steelers have exceptional balance on offense, 14th in passing yards last season, 11th in rushing behind QB Ben Roethlisberger (17 TDs, 5 INTs), RB Rashard Mendenhall (1,273 yards), WRs Mike Wallace and Hines Ward, plus TE Heath Miller.

The defense was No. 2 in the NFL in yards and tops in points, surrendering just 14.5 ppg. Their linebacker depth is outstanding as they get after the QB with their zone blitz schemes. They are on an 8-1 SU, 6-3 ATS run on the road and there is plenty of talent for this team to return to the postseason.

Patriots: Bill Belichick loaded up with defense this offseason, bring in veterans to help the D-line in Albert Haynesworth, Andre Carter and Mark Anderson. That's a plus as this defense was leaky, with no pass rush and a suspect young secondary that was the worst in the NFL on third down. The offense gives the coach nothing to worry about behind QB Tom Brady (3,900 yards, 36 TDs, 4 picks) and adds WR Chad Ochocinco and first round pick OT Nate Solder (Colorado). Re-signing Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins was a huge move, as well, but their success comes down to the new-look defense.

Packers: Green Bay may have sneaked into the playoffs last season, but it was no fluke they won the Super Bowl. They were a preseason favorite to be one of the top teams and struggled in midseason only because of a rash of injuries. Despite those setbacks and without much of a running game, the Packer depth was outstanding, finishing 9th in yards offensively and 5th in total defense.

QB Aaron Rodgers (28 TDs, 11 INTs, 3,922 yards) leads this high-octane passing attack while talented defensive coordinator Dom Capers mixes game plans up and loves to bring the heat on opposing quarterbacks. They are the NFC favorites in Las Vegas, but will carry the bulls-eye burden of defending champs.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
09/06/2011 06:47 PM

Week 1 Preview: Bills at Chiefs



Kickoff: Sunday, September 11, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Kansas City -6.5, Total: 40.5

The Chiefs are on a quest to prove 2010 was no fluke, and their first step is the 2011 season opener, at home against Buffalo.

Kansas City rode a weak schedule to the playoffs last year. They played just four teams who finished with a winning record, going 1-3 SU and ATS while getting outscored 94-37 in those games. On top of that, the Chiefs were far from impressive in a Week 8 home win over the Bills. K.C. needed overtime in the 13-10 win, and Buffalo K Rian Lindell missed a potential winner from 53 yards in OT. While the Chiefs are still the better team, they’re giving too many points, especially considering their subpar passing game. BUFFALO is the pick.

In their meeting last year, RB Jamaal Charles led a monster ground effort for the Chiefs, going for 177 of their 274 rushing yards. But Buffalo made moves to improve its porous run defense, adding No. 3 overall pick Marcell Dareus, a run-stuffing DE, and former Packers ILB Nick Barnett. However, the Bills lost two of the top-five tacklers in the NFL in LB Paul Posluszny and Donte Whitner.

While the Chiefs should continue to have success on the ground, their passing game remains a major question mark. QB Matt Cassel’s final stat line got a boost from a midseason hot streak (which included a legendary garbage-time performance in a blowout loss to Denver), but he was exposed down the stretch, posting a 65.3 passer rating in December/January. That included an embarrassing 9-for-18, three-INT day in their playoff loss to Baltimore. K.C. tried to upgrade Cassel’s weapons to take attention away from All-Pro WR Dwayne Bowe, but its moves may have backfired. Free agent WR Steve Breaston has been hobbled since offseason knee surgery, and first-round pick WR Jon Baldwin broke his wrist in a training camp fight with RB Thomas Jones. Second-year TE Tony Moeaki is also coming back from offseason knee surgery.

The Bills will be more versed in Chan Gailey’s spread offense in year two. QB Ryan Fitzpatrick showed a good grasp of the system, throwing for exactly 3,000 yards and 23 TD in 13 starts. The Bills went 7-4-1 ATS with Fitzpatrick under center. But Fitzpatrick also threw 15 INT, and Buffalo still has one of the NFL’s worst pass-protecting lines. The Bills will have their hands full with OLB Tamba Hali. Long-time No. 1 WR Lee Evans was traded to Baltimore. Former Jets multi-purpose threat Brad Smith was added to the receiving corps, but top WR Steve Johnson will get more attention from a solid Chiefs secondary.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
09/06/2011 06:51 PM

Week 1 Preview: Falcons at Bears



Kickoff: Sunday, September 11, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Atlanta -2.5, Total: 40.5

The NFC’s top two teams during last year’s regular season kick off 2011 when Atlanta visits Chicago for a Week 1 matchup.

The Falcons were road warriors a year ago (6-2 SU and ATS away from Atlanta), but they were also recipients of some luck. They had the league’s lowest opponent field goal percentage during the regular season (65.2%) and were one of four teams to have opponents rack up more than 1,000 penalty yards against them (1,003, including a league-high 522 in road games). They were 1-2 SU and ATS with a -17 point differential in three road games against 2010 playoff teams last year. Chicago was 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS against 2010 playoff teams during last year’s regular season, and the slow track at Soldier Field should help neutralize the speed in Atlanta’s receiving corps. The pick here is home underdog CHICAGO.

Atlanta made two major offseason moves, one on either side of the ball. The team signed former Vikings DE Ray Edwards (8 sacks in 14 games last year) to a big-money deal, giving it a pass-rushing complement to John Abraham in an attempt to upgrade a mediocre pass rush.

They also traded a boatload of draft picks to get WR Julio Jones sixth overall in the draft. Jones brings the same run-blocking ability as departed starter Michael Jenkins, but has far more upside as a receiver. The Falcons passing game could be far more explosive if Jones becomes a threat opposite Roddy White, something Jenkins never became and something aging TE Tony Gonzalez can longer be. It could be especially key considering 29-year-old RB Michael Turner is unlikely to have success running the ball against a Bears defense that allowed an NFC-low 90.1 rushing yards per game in 2010.

Chicago’s biggest issue last year was the passing offense. QB Jay Cutler was his usual erratic self in his first year under offensive coordinator Mike Martz, but he got little help from arguably the NFL’s worst offensive line and receiving corps. The Bears added a couple of flailing ex-Cowboy receivers in Roy Williams and Sam Hurd, as well as drafting mauling RT Gabe Carimi with their first-round pick, in an attempt to improve. Williams is familiar with Martz’s offense from their time in Detroit together. Chicago also added aging RB Marion Barber as a complement to Matt Forte in the backfield.

The Bears bring back the core of their defense, which was one of the NFL’s best last year, but they must replace Danieal Manning in the secondary. Manning, who played corner at times in Chicago, became one of the league’s elite safeties in coverage and signed with Houston in free agency. Second-year safety Major Wright will likely replace him. He’ll be tested right off the bat against a Falcons passing attack that will be more potent than a year ago.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
09/06/2011 06:53 PM

Week 1 Preview: Saints at Packers



Kickoff: Thursday, September 8, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Green Bay -4.5, Total: 46

The Packers begin their title defense when they host Super Bowl XLIV champion New Orleans to kick off the 2011 NFL season in Green Bay.

This game will match up two of the league’s most explosive offenses led by elite quarterbacks. While Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees will likely be at the tops of their games, the Packers are better suited to stop (or at least contain) the Saints. New Orleans did little to improve its struggling pass rush, and Rodgers should be able to take advantage of the middling talent in New Orleans’ secondary. Meanwhile Brees will have his hands full against Green Bay's elite pass rush, led by Clay Matthews, and one of the NFL’s top secondaries. Factor in the Packers’ strong play against 2010 playoff teams (7-3 SU and ATS) and the Saints’ 3-6 ATS road mark last year, and the pick is GREEN BAY.

New Orleans added a couple of run-stuffers to its defensive line in free agent DT Aubrayo Franklin (formerly of the 49ers) and first-round DE Cameron Jordan, but starting defensive ends Will Smith and Alex Brown combined for just 7.5 sacks last year. S Malcolm Jenkins is a star and CB Jabari Greer is solid, but the Saints will have a tough time keeping up with the Packers’ diverse group of weapons in the passing game.

Offensively, the Saints may turn more to the ground game this year. They upgraded their backfield with first-round pick Mark Ingram and free agent Darren Sproles. An improved running game could help make up for the potential drop-off in production from WR Marques Colston, who is coming off another major knee surgery. Green Bay was susceptible to the run last year, allowing 4.7 yards per carry (the NFL’s fifth-highest average).

The Packers essentially brought everyone back on offense, and will get a boost from the return of a couple of injured stars: RB Ryan Grant and TE Jermichael Finley. Including the playoffs, Green Bay faced seven teams with winning records to close out 2010 and went 6-1 SU and ATS. Rodgers posted a 112.6 passer rating during that span.

The defense led the NFC in sacks last season (47) and boasts two of the league’s best cornerbacks in Tramon Williams and Charles Woodson, plus a rising star in Sam Shields. They held opponents to a 67.2 passer rating, lowest in the NFL.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
09/06/2011 06:57 PM

NFL Notebook - Week 1

September 6, 2011

Welcome to my Week 1 NFL Notebook, a combination of notes, information, vents and opinions.

Let's begin with the Pittsburgh-Baltimore matchup, perhaps the fiercest of any rivalry in pro football. Teaser players may want to note that in the three-year Ravens coaching era of John Harbaugh no game in this rivalry has been decided by more than nine points with six of the last eight being decided by four or less.

The season, of course, begins Thursday with Green Bay hosting New Orleans. The oddsmakers opened this total too low at 46. The line has climbed to 47 and could get up and above 48 by kickoff with anticipated public money being on the over.

Still, the house may get the last laugh. The Saints aren't going to be passing nearly as much this season. They want to be more balanced and will be after trading up in the first round to get running back Mark Ingram out of Alabama. Also, neither team figures to be starting in good field position with kickoffs coming from the 35-yard line rather than the 30.

One of the biggest line moves has been on Cleveland. The Browns opened minus three hosting Cincinnati. The line has now reached 6 1/2. The Browns should be improved after consecutive 5-11 seasons under head coach Eric Mangini.

Speaking of Mangini, he'll be an analyst this season for ESPN. That's terrible. Mangini was a media nightmare when he was coaching. He not only never said anything worthwhile but was downright deceptive. He was one of the most boring interviews even by coach-speak standards. ESPN couldn't find anybody more worthy? Heck, bring back Dennis Miller to football. At least he's funny and honest.

Of course the steam on the Bengals-Browns game isn't because of Cleveland's perceived improvement. It's strictly fade material on the Bengals. The MGM may have set the worst regular-season over/under NFL total ever when they opened the Bengals' win total at 7 1/2. The Bengals' win total now is as low as five. This has to be the first time there has been a 2 1/2-game move on an NFL regular season win total.

Congratulations to those Vegas sharps who staked out an early position on the Colts-Texans game by getting down on Houston at less than a field goal. As one of them explained to me, "I thought I had nothing to lose because if Peyton Manning were to play, the Texans still could win. And if Manning were to miss the game, I would by far be getting the best of the line."

That certainly is true. Manning is expected to be sidelined and the Texans currently are nine-point favorites because of that.

Another Vegas sharp is trying to sell me on playing under in the Cowboys-Jets game if the number is less than 41. One of his main selling points is the expected defensive chess match between twin brothers Rex Ryan of the Jets and Rob Ryan, the new defensive coordinator for Dallas.

I pointed out that the two Ryans went at each other last year when Rob was defensive coordinator of the Browns. The Jets won 26-20 and the total went over the posted line of 37. Plus, it could take Rob Ryan time to straighten out Dallas' defense since he's changing systems, has weak safeties and had far less time to work out the kinks and implement things because of the lockout.

Detroit is getting a lot of love. The Lions certainly could be explosive if Matthew Stafford can ever stay healthy. The Lions open on the road against Tampa Bay where they snapped their 27-game road losing streak last year. The Buccaneers' respectable secondary could be vulnerable to Stafford if cornerback Aqib Talib can't play due to a hamstring strain that kept him out of preseason. It's an injury to monitor.

I was at the Bellagio Hotel in Las Vegas this past weekend involved in several high-stakes fantasy football drafts sponsored by the National Fantasy Football Championship. Most of the owners competing were sharp, but there were several clueless ones who in poker terms would be called "Dead Money." These were the ones taking New Orleans kicker Garrett Hartley, who could be out as long as 10 weeks with a hip injury, Jacksonville backup running back Rashard Jennings, who also is injured and out for the season and taking fad picks like Ben Tate and Daniel Thomas way too high. One owner even took wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald with the No. 2 overall pick.

Glad to see more places putting out NFL regular season player propositions. The Caesars Palace properties are taking action on passing yards, rushing yards and receiving yards.

My choice for total passing yards is Matt Ryan at 12/1 (Bet $100 to win $1,200). The Falcons are going to be passing a lot more this season making Ryan, not Michael Turner, their offensive cornerstone. Ryan not only has Roddy White to throw to, but also Julio Jones, underrated Harry Douglas (my fantasy sleeper pick) and future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez.

I like Chris Johnson at 8/1 for most rushing yards. Johnson and Adrian Peterson, who is 4/1, are the two best running backs in the NFL especially with Arian Foster slowed by a hamstring injury. A decent middle-shot is Ray Rice at 15/1. The Ravens picked up maybe the best blocking fullback in the league, Vonta Leach, and should give Rice a heavy dose of carries.

As for No. 1 in receiving yards, I'll take a shot with San Diego's Vincent Jackson at 12/1.

In closing, just want to say it's great to be back with ********** after being exclusive to another company for the past two years. I'm proud of my relationship with VI, which goes back to when the company began in the mid-nineties and am proud of my having turned a profit for my football customers in 17 of the last 18 years, including last year when I went 10-1 on my highest-rated plays.

Best of luck to everyone and looking forward to another winning season.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
09/06/2011 07:03 PM

Las Vegas NFL Notes

September 6, 2011

We’ve all been analyzing Week 1 NFL lines posted at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book since April, awaiting for this weekend to finally come and now it’s finally here. The thought of a lockout is a distant memory and while a few have already made their wagers, this week is when the masses will come out to play. It will be like throwing a steak to a starved stray dog.

Visitors will be flying in from all over the country to be a part of the excitement that only a Las Vegas sports book can offer on any Sunday during the football season. Locals begin to alter their normal spring and summer Sunday routines, like going to church or doing yard work earlier to accommodate the Sunday games and watch their action unfold.

The top story of the weekend is whether or not Indianapolis quarterback Peyton Manning will start Sunday at Houston. Based on the current line of Houston minus-7, it appears the sports books don’t think he will despite no confirmation from the Colts. In the Hilton’s April opening line, the Colts were one-point favorites in this one. There is no player in the NFL -- maybe NFL history -- that has been worth 8 points.

But with Manning, the move is easily justified. He’s everything to that franchise. He’s kept a marginal team in contention to the highest levels almost single handedly the last few seasons.

When Manning is officially ruled out, the starting job will be given to newly acquired veteran Kerry Collins. The Colts never play well in the preseason and part of that is because of Manning’s limited playing time. This year was no different as they went 1-3 and looked awful offensively in each contest. This would be the first regular season start Manning has missed during his entire 14-year career.

One of the other big disparities from the early April line was how far the Bears have fallen out of favor with the bettors. They opened up as one-point home favorites against the Falcons and coming into this weekend, the Falcons are now three-point favorites.

The Cardinals also got a four-point boost with the signing of Kevin Kolb. They opened as three-point favorites against the Panthers and are now laying seven. Arizona still has plenty of issues on defense, but after getting a glimpse of Larry Fitzgerald blossom in the preseason with Kolb slinging it to him relentlessly, they look like they’re going to be one of the more entertaining teams in the league.

The Lions have been respected by many to contend for a playoff spot and that respect is showing through the bet windows as the Buccaneers have dropped from three-point home favorites to 1 ½-point favorites. The Lions defensive line is going to beat up a lot of opposing quarterbacks this season.

We also get to see how the super-Eagles mesh for four quarters as five-point road favorites at St. Louis. The Rams are an interesting team to look at early on because second-year quarterback Sam Bradford will have a pretty good wide-receiver corps for the first time.

But the public is going to be all over the Eagles. The four-team parlay from the public that will destroy the sports books if it comes in will be the Eagles, Patriots (-7 at Miami), Giants (-3 at Washington) and the Falcons.

For Thursday night’s kickoff game, the sharps have already come in and grabbed the five points with the Saints at Green Bay. It may seem like a dead number, but in the same game last season, the Saints beat the Vikings as five-point favorites, 14-9.

A tip of the cap goes out to the crew at the Hilton for being the first in the world to offer the lines and not have too much of a variance in the numbers and where they eventually settled. The sharps nibbled away at some of the numbers early on while also adjusting the numbers based on preseason performance. It’s pretty sound odds making with a solid forecast on what both the sharps and public would play.

NFL Teasers

One of the best values a sports book offers that isn’t played as much as it should is the two-team six-point NFL teaser. The sharps have been playing them for years, but the public hasn’t jumped all in opting to play more options for less money getting higher returns.

When looking at what the sports books want you to play, you can just look at the limits offered. The lower the limits, the less they want you to play. The limits are based on how they do in each particular category. They’re either low because they don’t get enough two-way action or they’re low because they don’t win consistently enough at it. In the two-team teasers case, it's the latter.

The bulk of the action the sports books get on two-team NFL teasers is sharp action. Some books have completely taken the option away starting their pay chart at three-team teasers. MGM Resort properties had not offered the two-team six-point teasers for seven years, but have recently put the option back on the board at -120 with a $5,000 limit, a very fair price considering most books offer -130.

The value with the teaser simply rests with the NFL line being the most sound line of any sport in the world. There isn’t a more solid number than a pro football game. When you can add six-points to the best line in the world, that is some great value, especially when crossing over key numbers like 3, 7 and 10 when laying or taking the points.

Caesars Palace Rivalry Matchup Props

The Caesars Palace properties will be offering weekly rivalry props putting teams like the Packers and Bears against each all season despite not actually playing each other. A line of the side and total will be set between the two teams and the final score from the game they’re playing that week will be inputted. The Packers are -6 ½-point favorites against the Bears this week. The Saints are pick’em against the Falcons.

“We wanted NFL fans to have more appeal to the teams they’re rooting for than just the individual games those teams are playing in,” said the Rio’s Todd Fuhrman. “It gives the Packers fan now the opportunity to bet their teams performance against the hated Bears every week. We want to keep the rivalries going all year which is why we’ll also have a weekly line up on the Steelers vs. Ravens all season.“

Other rivalries you can bet all season beginning this week include the Redskins vs. Cowboys (-1 ½), Patriots (-3 ½) vs. Jets, Jets (-2) vs. Giants, and 49ers (-4) vs. Raiders.

Lucky’s Sports Book Grand Opening at the Riviera

Just in time for the first week of the NFL, Lucky’s will be having a Grand Opening party at their new location inside the Riviera this Thursday as the Saints and Packers kickoff the season. Appetizers and drinks will be offered, see you there.

The Linemakers TV Show

This Friday night at 8 pm on HD Theatre, ‘The Linemakers’ TV show will start the first of 26 episodes for that will run through the Super Bowl. A show of this kind was long overdue in this television world we live in where exterminators, bakers, and tow truck drivers have their own shows. What is more interesting than real bookmakers talking about spreads and how the number got to where it is?

The linemakers on the show are a regular who’s who of Las Vegas bookmaking legends starring Jimmy Vaccaro, Vinnie Magliulo, Richie Baccellieri, Lou D’Amico, Rick Herron and Kenny White. The show is hosted by Sports Book Radio’s Brian Blessing.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:34935 Followers:38
09/06/2011 07:05 PM

Jags release Garrard, plan to start McCown

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP) - The Jacksonville Jaguars have released veteran quarterback David Garrard, a stunning move that will save the franchise $9 million this season.

Whether it saves coach Jack Del Rio's job remains to be seen. Team owner Wayne Weaver has said Jacksonville needs to make the playoffs for Del Rio to stick around for a 10th season. Del Rio made it clear late last season that he had grown tired of Garrard's inconsistent ways.

Del Rio's quarterback swap is similar to what he did in 2007, when he released Byron Leftwich in favor of Garrard after the preseason. This time, though, Del Rio has been steadfast that Garrard was the starter.

Garrard missed the preseason opener because of a sore back, but started the final three games. He completed 50 percent of his passes for 216 yards, with no touchdowns and an interception.

Luke McCown is expected to start the opener against the Tennessee Titans.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
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09/06/2011 07:30 PM

NFL odds: Week 1 opening line report

The NFL -- world’s most popular league to watch and wager on -- is back Thursday. I’ll drink to that.

While the lockout was annoying, the sides reached a 10-year deal! I’ll drink to that, too.

And when I picture 17 straight weeks of watching up to 10 flat screens at once (for the 1 p.m. ET Sunday games), well, I will definitely drink to that.

Note to editor: The drinking starts after I turn in this column.

On to a stone-cold sober look at this week’s odds and pointspreads…

Not that there was ever any doubt, but Week 1 rams home the point: the NFL is a quarterback’s league.

Besides the Colts-Texans game, which some books took down due to Peyton Manning’s status, this week’s big line moves revolve around QB play, or the perception thereof.

The Cardinals opened as 3- to 5-point favorites over the Panthers. Now they’re laying 7, even 8.

“Kevin Kolb seems to have fit in well with Larry Fitzgerald, and you’ve got Carolina going with Cam Newton, a rookie quarterback,” MGM Mirage sportsbook manager Jeff Stoneback told ***********. “The public likes the Cardinals and the sharps like ‘em too.”

The Las Vegas Hilton opened the Browns as 3-point favorites over the Bengals. Now they’re laying 6.5 all over town.

“I think we have one ticket on the Bengals – I’m serious,” Hilton sportsbook manager Jay Kornegay told *********** on Saturday. “And it was for 20 dollars. The guy only risked 20, not 22.”

Cincy, of course, is force-feeding rookie Andy Dalton. Cleveland’s Colt McCoy turned in two outstanding preseason showings.

There was never any doubt about the QB situation in New England, which moved from a 4- to 7-point favorite at Miami. Kornegay said he opened the line at 4 back in April, when the Dolphins appeared to be targeting Kyle Orton or another upgrade over Chad Henne.

Kornegay said he’s written four times as many tickets on the Pats.

“They made some good moves in the offseason and they didn’t really lose too much,” Kornegay said. “And they’ve looked really good [except vs. Detroit]. These two teams definitely went in opposite directions.”

Biggest spread of the week – Vikings at Chargers (-9, 41)

San Diego finished No. 1 in total offense and total defense last season but did not make the playoffs due to comically bad special teams. Every offensive starter except Darren Sproles returns, and that has bettors believing.

“San Diego has been such a public team the last few years,” Stoneback said. “They’ve been far and away the best team in the division the last few years, even though they didn’t win it last year.”

San Diego’s season win total has risen from 10 to 10.5 and bettors are still going over, Stoneback said.

The Chargers started 2-5 SU and ATS last year. It was the fourth straight year San Diego opened 2-3 SU under Norv Turner.

Apparently that’s not enough to concern bettors, who see the Vikings as a team in transition.

Smallest spreads of the week – Lions at Buccaneers (-1.5, 41), Steelers at Ravens (-2.5, 36)

Tampa Bay opened as a 3- to 4-point favorite, but the number plummeted amid the never-ending surge of Lions’ love.

Last Dec. 19, Detroit beat the Bucs 23-20 in overtime in Tampa. The Lions were quarterbacked by third-stringer Drew Stanton – they’ll start Matthew Stafford on Sunday – and were getting 3.5 points. It was one of 12 covers Detroit produced in 2010, including five straight to end the season.

Stoneback said he can envision the Ravens’ line, which he opened at -3 (even), falling further as kickoff approaches. Baltimore hasn’t beaten a Ben Roethlisberger-led Pittsburgh team since 2006.

Biggest total of the week – Saints at Packers (-4, 47)

When MGM Mirage opened this total at 46, the sharps jumped in and bet the over. They’ll be in position to “middle” it if the total keeps rising, say to 48.5. Which is quite possible.

“It’s a Thursday night isolated game, you’ll have a lot of public money, and Monday or Thursday, the public generally bets those ‘Over,’” Stoneback said.

Added Kornegay: “They’re trying to bet it early and hopefully it goes up and they can buy it back [under] later on, or maybe they thought it was just too low for these types of offenses.”

The Packers’ Aaron Rodgers finished 2010 as the best QB in football. The Saints’ Drew Brees looked extremely sharp in preseason, like it was 2009 all over again.

“When the Saints had their starters in [during preseason],” Stoneback said, “they put up a lot of points.”

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: