cnotes Posts:33023 Followers:38
12/24/2011 12:50 AM


Week 16

NFL Total Bias: Week 16's best over/under bets

Backdoor bad beats. Roughing the passer penalties. Ron Jaworski. These are the things that can make a football bettor’s blood boil.

You may find yourself a little on edge lately. With the sounds of the season ringing in your ears for the better part of two months, it’s really no surprise that you’re waking up in the middle of the night, soaked in a cold sweat with a Michael Buble holiday tune stuck in your head.

It’s not your fault - it gets the best of all of us.

Your only real salvation is your couch and your remote control, tucked deep inside your man cave. There, everything is supposed to be right in the world. It’s your escape to the land of pigskin and pointspreads. It’s your safe place.

But we all know it doesn’t work like that. The sweet solitude in that cave never lasts long, always interrupted by some sort of foolish family member at the two-minute warning in a tie game.

It’s no wonder that you start mentally putting together your Christmas Coal list in October. The only problem is, this isn’t the mid-19th century, so instead of coal you’ll probably just grab a bunch of chocolates from the reduced bid and stick a bow on them.

I take it to another level. While there’s no doubt I’ll be handing out my fair share of terrible gifts this weekend, I also like to bring our NFL brothers into the mix.

They’ve been responsible for a significant amount of frustration over the past four months, so with that, I present the 2011 NFL Christmas Coal Awards.

Turn up the lights award – San Francisco 49ers

Coal was the fuel of the Industrial Revolution, spawning massing technological advancements beginning in the 18th century. Now, Candlestick Park is one of the oldest NFL stadiums still in use, so you’d think they would have figured out this electricity thing by now.

After Monday’s power failure, maybe a truckload of coal would do the Niners good, who still have an outside chance at home-field advantage in the playoffs. Regardless, is there a better bet on the board right now than San Fran +1,400 to win the Super Bowl?

Put ‘em on ice award - Jason Garret, Dallas Cowboys

You could make an argument that head coach Jason Garrett has cost the Dallas Cowboys as many as five wins this season. He was ripped for his play-calling in falling to the Jets, Pats, and Lions and couldn’t seem to figure out how to manage the clock against the Giants. And then there’s the loss to Arizona when he iced his own kicker. Time to Cowboy up with that chopping block, Jerry.

Every day we hustlin’ award – Sam Hurd

Just imagine if Sam Hurd put as much time and effort into football as he did pushing weight. We’d be sending him to Hawaii every year. But the reality is he was busted trying to buy 10 kilos of coke and a whack of weed. If you loved MLB’s steroid witch hunt, buckle up because Hurd apparently dealt to a pile of NFL players. Shockingly, he denies everything.

Equally as shocking: The Chicago Bears have released Sam Hurd.

The it’s not you, it’s me award – Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears

This has nothing to do with Jay Cutler’s play on the field, but his complete lack of game off it. Cutler looks like he just crawled out of a ditch every Sunday and somehow managed to get rocket Kristin Cavallari to take him back after he dumped her the first time around. I guess he deserves props for that, but you just wait, he’ll screw it up again… just like his stupid broken thumb ruined Chicago’s season.

Excessive celebration award – Tim Tebow

Tebow Mania is getting a little excessive, no? I don’t know about you, but I sure can’t wait to hear Tebow thank the Jesus for everything after he gets buried by the Bills in Buffalo this week.

You’re a turkey award - Ndamukong Suh

Fox Sports makes a big deal of handing out an award to the player who lights it up on Thanksgiving Day, which is stupid. They really need to start dishing hardware to the biggest idiot of the day, which clearly goes to Ndamukong Suh this year. Not only did he stomp Dietrich-Smith while he was laying down, but he pouted like a child after he was suspended. Hopefully, the incident serves as a major wakeup call.

Daydream believer award – Philadelphia Eagles

You knew nothing good could come from Vince Young’s dream team comments, and sure enough, nothing did. The only positive thing about this overblown issue was that I made a bundle fading Philly for the first half of the year. You might be able to buy a good baseball team, but that doesn’t work in football.

Don’t ever do that again award – The NFL Lockout

We were all thankful that we had an NFL season, but the lockout proved to be hell for bettors and every red-blooded male that fears chore-filled days in the absence of football. Don’t you ever, ever do that again, NFL.

OK, on to the total picks. Wishing you all a coal-less holiday season.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-13, 44)

Did you hear the one about the car dealership giving away cars if the Bears shut out the Packers? No, seriously, there’s a Chicago car dealership giving away cars if the Bears blank the Packers. That’s not going to happen, but this is Chicago’s Super Bowl.

Pick: Under

San Diego Chargers at Detroit Lions (-2.5, 51.5)

The Chargers nearly earned their own coal award, but I decided against it since they keep doing the same thing every year. While their routine is getting a little old, their offense is surging again in December.

Pick: Over

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-7.5, 47.5)

Cam Newton gives Carolina a lot to look forward to over the next few years. He’ll give Panthers fans even more to cheer about against Tampa Bay’s dreadful defense in the last home game of the season.

Pick: Over

Last week's record: 1-2
Season record to date: 26-20

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33023 Followers:38
12/24/2011 12:55 AM

Gridiron Trends - Week 16

December 22, 2011


The Buccaneers are 10-0 ATS (10.8 ppg) since December 2005 on the road after a home game last week where they held their opponent out of the end zone on at least two trips to the red zone.


The Cowboys are 0-10 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since November 15, 1992 after a game where they led by double digits after one quarter and did not punt more than three times.


The Patriots are 14-0 OU (7.9 ppg) since 2007 as a favorite after a win as an away favorite where they scored at least four touchdowns.


The Seahawks are 0-11-1 OU (-9.2 ppg) since September 30, 2007 within 3 of pick vs a divisional opponent.


The League is 0-14 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since October 08, 2006 as a favorite the week after on the road as a TD+ favorite in which their completion percentage was at least eight points higher than their season-to-date average. Active on Dallas.


The Titans are 0-10 ATS (-11.8 ppg) since December 2004 when they are off a game in which they had more than thirty minutes of possession time, but allowed at least five points more than expected.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33023 Followers:38
12/24/2011 12:57 AM

Total Talk - Week 16

December 23, 2011

College Bowls

If you play totals in pro football then one could only assume that you dabble on the college gridiron totals too. Through six games this postseason, the ‘over’ stands at 4-2 (67%) but make a note that the numbers have been spot on. Three of the winning ‘over’ tickets barely got their and the majority of the scoring has been done in the second-half. For those keeping score at home, the ‘under’ is 5-1 in the first-half so far. That could change on Saturday night in the Hawaii Bowl, which has been known to see shootouts.

System Plays

The “Total Tip – Three Straight on the Road” system sets up for the last time this regular season on Saturday. The angle calls for gamblers to play the ‘over’ for any team that is playing their third consecutive game on the road. It’s been hitting 69% (27-12-2) over the last seven seasons, and its gone 4-2 (67%) this season. Hopefully, the last matchup of the season, which goes Saturday, will be another winner.

Week 16 – Cleveland at Baltimore

Earlier Results:
Week 5 - N.Y. Jets 21 at New England 30 (OVER 50.5)
Week 6 – New Orleans 20 at Tampa Bay 26 (UNDER 49.5)
Week 8 – Indianapolis 10 at Tennessee 27 (UNDER 43)
Week 12 – Arizona 23 at St. Louis 20 (OVER 40)
Week 12 - Buffalo 24 at N.Y. Jets 28 (OVER 42.5)
Week 13 – Carolina at Tampa Bay

Divisional Trends

Squaring off for the second time in a season can have differing results. On Thursday, we watched Indianapolis rally for its second win after beating Houston, 19-16. The combined 35 points went ‘under’ the closing number of 40. Should we expect more of the same for the rest of the week? With seven matchups left for Saturday, let’s recap the first meeting and look at the current form.

Oakland at Kansas City: The Chiefs ripped the Raiders 28-0 as visitors on Oct. 23.Oakland has watched its last five games go ‘over’ while Kansas City is on an 8-1 run to the ‘under.’ Including the first meeting this season, the ‘under’ is on a 6-1 run between this pair.

Jacksonville at Tennessee: These two met in Week 1 with the Jaguars earning a 16-14 victory at home. The Titans have seen their last eight games go ‘under’ the number. Jacksonville is on a 3-0 ‘over’ run. The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight and six of the last seven in this series.

Miami at New England: The Patriots and Dolphins have seen their last three matchups go ‘over’ which includes this year’s Week 1 battle on MNF. New England beat Miami 38-24 on the road. The total is high (48) but it’s hard to ignore the fact that the Pats have put up 30-plus in all of their last six games.

Cleveland at Baltimore: This matchup fits the System Plays (See Above). Four of the last five meetings here have gone ‘under’ the number. The Browns have been held to 10 points or less four times during this stretch. Baltimore beat Cleveland 24-10 on Dec. 4 this season.

Tampa Bay at Carolina: Cam Newton and the Panthers ripped the Buccaneers 38-19 in early December on the road. Carolina It wouldn’t be surprising to see a duplicate performance considering Tampa Bay has given up 32 PPG during its eight-game losing streak. Four of the last six in this series has gone ‘over’ the number.

San Francisco at Seattle: Who could forget the Ted Ginn game! Leading 19-17 late in the fourth quarter, the former Ohio State standout returned two touchdowns to give San Francisco a 33-17 victory. The 49ers got the cover and the game went ‘over’ the closing number of 38. A lot has changed since that Week 1 affair. Seattle is on a 4-1 run to the ‘over’ while San Francisco is 4-1 to the ‘under.’ The total is 2-2-1 in the last five clashes between these squads.

Philadelphia at Dallas: The ‘under’ has gone 4-2 in the last six head-to-head meetings here, yet we’re looking at a total in the fifties (50.5). Both clubs have the weapons on offense to light it up, which you could see in the last two weeks. Philadelphia put up 26 and 45, while Dallas posted 34 and 31 points offensively.

Chicago at Green Bay: (See Under the Lights)

Atlanta at New Orleans: (See Under the Lights)

Under the Lights

The primetime affairs went 1-1 last weekend, but the ‘under’ should’ve posted a 2-0 mark. Fortunately for some ‘over’ players, the Ravens added a late touchdown in their 34-14 loss to the Chargers, which helped eclipse the closing number of 45. On the season ‘over’ now stands at 17-12-1 (59%) in games under the lights this season.

Chicago at Green Bay: After watching the Packers put up a season-low 14 points last week against Kansas City, the oddsmakers might believe their offense isn’t invincible. This week’s total against the Bears is hovering around 43 points, which is the lowest ‘over/under’ Green Bay has seen all season long. Chicago has watched the ‘under’ go 4-2 on the road, while Green Bay has posted a 5-1 mark to the ‘over’ at Lambeau Field. This head-to-head series has watched the ‘under’ cash in the last eight meetings.

Atlanta at New Orleans: Anytime the Saints play you have to look at the ‘over’ just based on their explosiveness. However the New Orleans juggernaut has been held to an average of 23.3 PPG in the last four encounters against Atlanta, which has resulted in a 3-1 record to the ‘under.’ This week’s number is hovering around 52. The Saints have seen the ‘over’ go 4-2 in games with totals at 50 or higher.

Fearless Predictions

Ugh, we posted the bagel last week and the deficit was $430. Fortunately the profits still stand at $300 on the season. Hopefully the holidays treat us better. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck!

Best Over: San Diego-Detroit 52

Best Under: Chicago-Green Bay 44

Best Team Total: Under Denver 22.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over San Diego-Detroit 43
Under Denver-Buffalo 50.5
Over Dallas-Philadelphia 41.5

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33023 Followers:38
12/24/2011 08:16 AM

Saturday, December 24

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 1:00 PM ET Miami +9.5 500
New England - Under 50 500

Cleveland - 1:00 PM ET Baltimore -12.5 500
Baltimore - Under 38.5 500

Arizona - 1:00 PM ET Cincinnati -4.5 500
Cincinnati - Over 41 500

Minnesota - 1:00 PM ET Washington -7 500
Washington - Over 44 500

Denver - 1:00 PM ET Denver -2.5 500
Buffalo - Over 43 500

St. Louis - 1:00 PM ET St. Louis +12 500
Pittsburgh - Under 34.5 500

N.Y. Giants - 1:00 PM ET N.Y. Jets -3 500
N.Y. Jets - Over 47 500

Tampa Bay - 1:00 PM ET Carolina -9 500
Carolina - Over 47.5 500

Jacksonville - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +7.5 500
Tennessee - Under 40 500

Oakland - 1:00 PM ET Kansas City -1 500
Kansas City - Under 42 500

San Diego - 4:05 PM ET Detroit -1 500
Detroit - Over 52 500

Philadelphia - 4:15 PM ET Philadelphia +1 500
Dallas - Under 50.5 500

San Francisco - 4:15 PM ET Seattle +1 500
Seattle - Over 37.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33023 Followers:38
12/25/2011 10:57 AM

Sunday, December 25

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chicago - 8:20 PM ET Green Bay -11.5 500

Green Bay - Under 42 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33023 Followers:38
12/26/2011 02:54 AM

Tale of the tape: Falcons at Saints

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-6.5, 52)


New Orleans averages 32.6 points, second-most in the NFL, and leads the league in total yards (456.7) and passing yards (331.4). Drew Brees has thrown 16 TDs and 0 INTs over his last five games. He throws to a deep receiving corps featuring uncoverable TE Jimmy Graham (1,171 receiving yards, 9 TDs). Darren Sproles is averaging 6.5 yards a carry and has 79 catches out of the backfield, but played his worst game in the previous matchup with Atlanta.

The Falcons are reaping the benefits of the Julio Jones trade, as the explosive rookie has racked up 257 receiving yards and three TDs over the last three games. The Falcons have scored 72 points over the past two games, with Matt Ryan throwing for 7 TDs and 0 INTs. RB Michael Turner (4.1 ypc) is predictably slowing down toward the end of the season, but has gashed the Saints in his last two visits (265 yards, 2 TDs).

Edge: Saints


The Saints give up 21.9 points per game, tied for 15th in the NFL. They’re vulnerable to the run, giving up 4.9 yards a carry. Only three teams give up more passing yards, but that’s a function of New Orleans usually playing with the lead. The Saints got just one sack and two QB hits against Ryan in the earlier meeting.

Atlanta DE John Abraham is coming off his best game of the season. He had 3.5 sacks and forced two fumbles that resulted in 10 points. But Saints LT Jermon Bushrod has a 42-pound advantage and didn’t allow a sack in the first matchup. Falcons LB Stephen Nicholas (toe) is doubtful, and CB Brent Grimes (knee) is questionable. Atlanta gives up 20.1 points per game, which ranks 10th.

Edge: Falcons

Special teams

Saints K John Kasay, 42, doesn’t have much leg left. He’s just 6 of 12 on field goals from 40 yards or longer. Darren Sproles is a dangerous returner who averages 26.1 yards on kickoff returns (7th, NFL) and has taken one punt back for a TD.

Falcons K Matt Bryant is 23 of 25 on field goals, including 6 of 8 from 40-plus. Eric Weems averages 23.3 yards on kickoff returns, which ranks 20th. Matt Bosher ranks 19th with a 38.5-yard net punting average.

Edge: Even

Word on the street

"The sky's the limit and that's where we're trying to get to. Our goal is nothing less than a victory in the Super Bowl, and right now we just trying to stay focused and take it one step at a time." – Saints safety Roman Harper.

“He adds a whole lot to their defense. He’s really the quarterback of their defense. He gets them in and out of coverages.” – Falcons coach Mike Smith on Saints MLB Jonathan Vilma, who missed the earlier meeting with a knee injury but will play Monday.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33023 Followers:38
12/26/2011 02:58 AM

Falcons at Saints: What bettors need to know


THE STORY: With Dan Marino's NFL single-season passing record squarely in his sights, Drew Brees will lead the New Orleans Saints into a critical divisional matchup with the visiting Atlanta Falcons on Monday night. Brees needs 305 yards to surpass the mark of 5,084 set by Marino in 1984, a fairly decent proposition given the fact he has thrown for a league-record 11 300-yard games this season. Of more importance to both teams is how the game will impact both their postseason fates. Winners of six straight, New Orleans can wrap up the NFC South title with a victory and remains in contention for the No. 2 seed in the conference. Atlanta still has an outside shot at winning the division and holds a tiebreaker edge over Detroit for the No. 5 seed. The Falcons would clinch a playoff berth with a win Monday.

TV: ESPN, 8:30 p.m. ET.

LINE: The Saints opened as 6.5-point favorites and were bet up to the key number of 7 before falling back to 6.5 at most books. If you shop hard, you can find 6 or 7 (even). The total opened at 53.5 and has fallen to 52.5 or 52.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (9-5): Atlanta has won four of five since an overtime home loss to the Saints on Nov. 13. The Falcons have had ample time to prepare since thumping Jacksonville 41-14 on Dec. 15. QB Matt Ryan threw for a modest 224 yards and three TDs, including a pair to Roddy White, who had 10 receptions for 135 yards. It was the second 10-catch performance in four games for White, who has five TDs in that stretch. In an attempt to keep Brees off the field, Atlanta could feature a heavy dose of Michael Turner, who has rushed for 265 yards and two TDs in the last two visits to New Orleans.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (11-3): How good has Brees been? In his last five games, he has thrown for 1,776 yards with 16 touchdowns and zero interceptions. He threw five TD passes in last week’s 42-20 rout at Minnesota and has completed 20-plus passes in a league-record 34 straight games. Top pick Mark Ingram (toe) sat out the last two games, but it hasn’t slowed New Orleans, which got 151 rushing yards from RBs Christopher Ivory, Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles last week. Sproles has been a major weapon out of the backfield with 79 receptions, including at least five in 12 games. Jimmy Graham leads NFL tight ends in receptions (87) and yards (1,171).


1. Although the Saints have won nine of past 11 meetings overall, each of the last four with Atlanta have been decided by three points.

2. Brees has thrown at least one touchdown pass in 41 consecutive games, the second-longest streak in NFL history behind Johnny Unitas' 47.

3. “I hope he's at his highest level because if he plays any better I don't know if there's any way to stop him.” – Falcons coach Mike Smith on Brees’ recent play.


- Falcons are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 visits to New Orleans.
- Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last six games.
- Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
- Under is 13-3 in Saints' last 16 vs. NFC South.

PREDICTION: Saints 34, Falcons 31 -- Atlanta keeps it close as usual, but Brees and the Saints’ high-powered offense extend their win streak to seven.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:33023 Followers:38
12/26/2011 06:26 PM

Monday, December 26

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Atlanta - 8:30 PM ET Atlanta +6.5 500 MNF GOY

New Orleans - Over 52 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: