cnotes Posts:32922 Followers:38
12/22/2011 08:19 PM


Week 16

Trend Report

Thursday, December 22

8:20 PM
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 8 games when playing at home against Houston
Indianapolis is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games when playing Houston

Saturday, December 24

1:00 PM
Arizona is 6-12 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games on the road
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
Tampa Bay is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 6 games
Carolina is 12-5 SU in its last 17 games when playing Tampa Bay
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay

1:00 PM
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games
Minnesota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Washington is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota

1:00 PM
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Jacksonville's last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 7 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tennessee's last 9 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Tennessee is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

1:00 PM
Miami is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Miami is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing New England
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games
New England is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Miami

1:00 PM
Oakland is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 7 games on the road
Kansas City is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
Kansas City is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home

1:00 PM
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing St. Louis
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis

1:00 PM
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 12 games at home
Buffalo is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver

1:00 PM
Cleveland is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
Cleveland is 7-13-2 ATS in its last 22 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing at home against Cleveland
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Cleveland

1:00 PM
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games on the road
NY Giants are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Jets last 6 games
NY Jets are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games

4:05 PM
San Diego is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Diego's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games at home
Detroit is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home

4:15 PM
Philadelphia is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Philadelphia's last 13 games on the road
Dallas is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games
Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia

4:15 PM
San Francisco is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Seattle
San Francisco is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games at home
Seattle is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games at home

Sunday, December 25

8:20 PM
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games on the road
Chicago is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 8 games
Green Bay is 19-1 SU in its last 20 games

Monday, December 26

8:30 PM
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-19-1 ATS in its last 25 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32922 Followers:38
12/22/2011 08:20 PM

NFL poolies cheat sheet: Week 16 betting notes

It took 15 weeks, but we finally have a loss for the Packers and a win for the Colts. How will things play out in Week 16, with so many teams’ playoff hopes hanging in the balance? Let’s check in with the NFL poolies cheat sheet:

Houston (-6) at Indianapolis

Why Texans cover: Despite their upset home loss to Carolina last week, the Texans still have shot at No. 1 or 2 seed in AFC playoffs, so there’s plenty of incentive. Plus, Houston has spent its existence as a whipping boy for Indy in the AFC South, so this team should relish the opportunity to take it to the Colts twice in the same season – the Texans rolled 34-7 in Week 1 at home. Gary Kubiak’s crew was on run of 7-0 straight-up (SU) and 6-0-1 against the spread (ATS) before last week’s setback.

Why Colts cover: They’re dripping with confidence after breaking through for first SU win of season, 27-13 over visiting Tennessee as a 6.5-point pup last week. Indy has cashed five straight in December and is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine Thursday starts.

Total (40): The over is 10-3 in the last 13 in this rivalry, but keep in mind that was usually with Peyton Manning playing for the Colts and Matt Schaub playing for the Texans. The under is 6-1 in Indy’s last seven overall.

Oakland at Kansas City (-1)

Why Raiders cover: This team is on a three-game SU slide, yet still has a chance to win the AFC Worst, er, West. The road team in this classic rivalry has been a great bet at 20-5-1 ATS in the last 26 clashes. The Raiders have covered in their last five trips to K.C. (4-1 SU).

Why Chiefs cover: Hey, these guys just beat the previously-unbeaten Packers. K.C. has covered three of its last four and Oakland is just 16-35-1 ATS in its last 52 vs. losing teams.

Total (42): Total has over in five straight for the Raiders, but the Chiefs are riding under stretches of 8-1 overall and 6-0 at Arrowhead. The under is 6-1 overall in this rivalry and is 5-1 in the last six in K.C.

Jacksonville at Tennessee (-7.5)

Why Jaguars cover: Not easy to make a case for these guys. After they beat Tampa Bay 41-14 two weeks ago, they lost by that same score last week at Atlanta. Who knows what you’ll get? Maybe the Jags are catching the Titans at the right time – Tennessee has dropped last two SU and ATS.

Why Titans cover: If they want to prove themselves playoff worthy, they’ve got to drub bad opponents – something they didn’t do in losing to previously-winless Indianapolis last week. But Tennessee has normally been sound vs. sub-.500 teams, covering five straight before last week’s toe-stubbing.

Total (40): Tennessee’s on a huge under tear, playing below the number in eight straight. Jacksonville averages just 14.8 ppg (29th), and the under has hit in six of its last seven roadies. The under is also on 4-0 stretch in this AFC South rivalry.

Tampa Bay at Carolina (-9)

Why Buccaneers cover: This team went 10-6 last year and maybe that unit will show up for an NFC South rivalry game. The Bucs are getting 9 points against a 5-9 team, which is pretty unusual. Tampa is also a solid road pup, at 11-3 ATS in the last 14 in that role.

Why Panthers cover: This is not your ordinary 5-9 team. QB Cam Newton’s likely on his way to Rookie of the Year honors and Carolina just knocked off the red-hot Texans on the road to win and cover for the third time in four weeks. The Panthers improved to 16-6 ATS in their last 22 December outings. Three weeks ago in Tampa, the Panthers rolled 38-19.

Total (47.5): The under is on runs of 19-7 with Panthers favored, 4-1 in division play for the Bucs and 6-1 in the last seven Panthers-Bucs meetings in Carolina.

N.Y. Giants at N.Y. Jets (-3)

Why Giants cover: It’s a battle for New York, with both teams fighting for their playoff lives. If push comes to shove at QB, Eli Manning gets the nod over Mark Sanchez. The G-Men are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Saturday affairs. The Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six after a SU loss.

Why Jets cover: They can’t afford another embarrassing performance against the NFC East after getting drubbed in Philadelphia last week. Gang Green has covered in their last four Saturday starts.

Total (45.5): Both of these teams are on a boatload of over streaks. The Giants are on 4-0 over runs as an underdog. The Jets have played over to a tune of 24-8 overall, 5-0 in December, 4-0 at home and 9-3 after a SU loss.

St. Louis at Pittsburgh (-15.5)

Why Rams cover: Seriously? If Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is as immobile this week as he was last week, perhaps the Rams can stick around since 15.5 is a lot. Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. losing teams.

Why Steelers cover: Because the Rams are the worst team in the league at the betting window, at 2-11-1 ATS this year. St. Louis is also just 1-8 ATS in its last nine roadies. Mike Tomlin’s troops are a solid bounce-back bet, with streaks of 7-0 ATS off a SU loss and 9-2 ATS off a non-cover.

Total (37.5): The Rams average a league-low 11.9 ppg. The Steelers’ defense is No. 2 in NFL, allowing just 15.6 ppg. The under is on runs of 8-3 overall for the Rams, 4-0 overall for the Steelers and 4-1 in the Steel City.

Denver (-1.5) at Buffalo

Why Broncos cover: They lost convincingly to New England, but they still have Tim Tebow playing on Christmas Eve of all days. The Fighting Tebows have won and covered their last five roadies, though only one was from the favorite’s role. Denver’s superb on Saturdays (9-0 ATS in the last nine). Buffalo is in a total downward spiral, losing seven in a row while covering just once.

Why Bills cover: Not much positive to say about Buffalo, but Denver is 7-15 ATS in December, 15-35-1 ATS when laying points, and 8-22-1 ATS against losing teams.

Total (41): Most trends point to the over – 10-2 in Denver’s last 12 as chalk, 10-3 in the Broncos’ last 13 in December, 10-4-1 in Buffalo’s last 15 overall, and 8-1-1 in Bills’ last 10 when getting points.

Minnesota at Washington (-6.5)

Why Vikings cover: Adrian Peterson got a light workload last week (10 carries) as he returned from ankle sprain in a blowout loss to the Saints. He should be rested and ready to shoulder much bigger load this week. The ‘Skins are on a 0-7 ATS dive as home favorites.

Why Redskins cover: They’re on a 4-1 ATS upswing and just put a huge dent in the Giants’ playoff hopes with a 23-10 road victory while catching 5.5 points. The Vikes are 5-12-2 ATS in their last 19 as a pup.

Total (44): The over has hit in five of the Vikings’ last six and four of the ‘Skins last five.

Arizona at Cincinnati (-4)

Why Cardinals cover: They own streaks of 6-1 SU and 6-2 ATS as they’ve moved into playoff contention. The only issue is whether Kevin Kolb (concussion) returns as the starter, and with the way John Skelton has played in relief, the Cards might not want Kolb back right now. The Cards are 8-1 ATS in their last nine on Saturday and 5-1 ATS in their last six as an underdog. The Bengals are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 when laying points.

Why Bengals cover: Still very much in playoff hunt and perhaps long overdue for a cover after going 0-4-2 at the betting window in the last six weeks. Cincy is 7-2 ATS in its last nine following a SU win.

Total (40.5): Cincy has played over in eight of its last 11 overall and five in a row at home.

Cleveland at Baltimore (-13)

Why Browns cover: They’ve only cashed five times all season, but four of those have come in the past five weeks. The Ravens often play down to level of competition, going 1-5 ATS in their last six against losing teams. The road team has covered in the last four in this AFC North rivalry.

Why Ravens cover: They remain in pursuit of a first-round playoff bye and they’ve got plenty to prove after getting plastered on national TV last week at San Diego. Baltimore rolled 24-10 laying 7 points three weeks ago in Cleveland, moving to 6-1 ATS in the last seven vs. the Browns.

Total (38.5): Cleveland’s averaging a meager 13.9 ppg (30th) and has the under on streaks of 4-1-1 overall and 8-3-1 when getting points. The under is also 4-1 in the last four Cleveland-Baltimore clashes. On the flip side, Baltimore is on over runs of 7-0 off a SU loss and 5-0 off an ATS setback.

Miami at New England (-9.5)

Why Dolphins cover: They’ve been on fire against the number lately, cashing seven of last eight, including road win at Buffalo last week. The Fish are 5-0 ATS vs. winning teams and 21-8-1 on the highway. The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine Dolphins-Patriots contests.

Why Patriots cover: They own the Dolphins lately, winning and cashing in the last three clashes by double digits, including 38-24 victory in the season opener when laying 7 points. The Pats rumbled 38-7 as a 4-point favorite in Week 17 last year in Foxborough.

Total (48.5): Miami has played under to a clip of 10-2-1 overall, 8-0 as a pup, and 21-7 in roadies. New England has played over to a tune of 25-8 overall, 12-4 at home, and 10-1 in AFC East affairs.

San Diego at Detroit (-1.5)

Why Chargers cover: Because as bad a coach as Norv Turner is, somehow this team always turns it on in December. With Philip Rivers at the QB helm, Bolts have gone 23-2 SU in the last 25 December games. They are 3-0 SU and ATS this December, all in blowout fashion. The Chargers also on underdog ATS runs of 23-9-3 overall and 18-8-3 on road.

Why Lions cover: They’re on the brink of their first playoff berth in forever. OK, it’s only been since 1999, but that’s a long time. Detroit is 7-3-2 ATS in its last dozen when laying points. San Diego is 2-5-1 ATS in its last eight on highway.

Total (52.5): These two offenses are among best in league with Detroit fourth at 28.2 ppg and San Diego fifth at 25.6. The over is 31-12-4 in the Bolts’ last 47 on road.

San Francisco (-1) at Seattle

Why 49ers cover: Nobody in the league is better than 49ers against the number. They’re 11-2-1 ATS in a season that began with a 33-17 home win over the Seahawks as a 6-point chalk. Jim Harbaugh’s troops, pursuing at least the No. 2 seed in NFC, are also a red-hot favorite at 11-1 ATS in their last 12 in that role. The Seahawks are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 vs. winning teams.

Why Seahawks cover: This team still has a chance to make the playoffs and would love nothing more than to ding a division rival while remaining in wild-card contention. And with Marshawn Lynch going off lately (five 100-yard games in last seven outings, with eight TDs), the Seahawks certainly look worthy. Seattle is 6-1 ATS in the last seven and has posted three straight double-digit wins. The home team in this rivalry on 5-0 ATS run.

Total (38): Niners have league’s No. 1 scoring defense, yielding 13.2 ppg. That has the under going 4-1 in San Francisco’s last five and 8-3-1 with the Niners set as a road favorite. But Seattle’s on slew of over streaks, including 19-7 overall, 8-0 in December, and 12-3-1 at home.

Philadelphia at Dallas (-1)

Why Eagles cover: Just look at that line. It’s clear bookmakers have little faith in Dallas (1-4 ATS in the last five), even on its home field. Philly somehow still has a shot at playoffs and is coming off pair of double-digit SU and ATS wins. The Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in the last eight at home and 3-10 ATS in the last 13 when laying points in Dallas.

Why Cowboys cover: Big revenge spot, after getting belted 34-7 at Philly on Oct. 30. Prior to that, the Cowboys had cashed five in a row in this NFC East rivalry (4-1 SU). The home team has covered four of the last five Eagles-Cowboys contests.

Total (50.5): Over is 10-3 in the Eagles’ last 13 roadies and 12-4 in the Cowboys’ last 16 at home.

Chicago at Green Bay (-13)

Why Bears cover: Coach Lovie Smith will give fans a gift on Christmas Day by benching ineffective backup Caleb Hanie in favor of third-stringer Josh McCown. It can’t hurt, with Bears having lost four in a row (1-3 ATS) since Jay Cutler’s thumb injury. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five in this NFC North rivalry.

Why Packers cover: After dismal performance at Kansas City, where they suffered their first loss in more than a year, the Packers should be plenty motivated to get back on track and secure home field throughout playoffs. Green Bay’s a solid bounce-back bet, with ATS runs of 8-0 off a non-cover and 4-0 off a SU loss.

Total (44.5): Bears have mixed bag of over and under trends, while Packers are on over surges of 6-2 overall, 4-0 after a SU loss, and 6-1 at Lambeau. But in this rivalry, the under has cashed eight straight times overall and four of the last five on Frozen Tundra.

Atlanta at New Orleans (-6.5)

Why Falcons cover: They’ve got more to play for than Saints, who have already clinched a playoff spot. An upset win would secure a postseason berth for Atlanta. The Falcons are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 in December. The trends in this NFC South rivalry point to Falcons: Atlanta 11-5 ATS in the last 16 vs. New Orleans, the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five, and the underdog has cashed five in a row.

Why Saints cover: They are the hottest team going right now, winning and covering six in a row and seven of their last eight, with five double-digit victories and a win and cover on road against Atlanta in overtime. Sean Payton’s troops have covered their last six at home and are on a 5-0 ATS run as favorites.

Total (53): The over is 6-2 in the Saints’ last eight on Mondays. However, despite two of league’s best offenses (Saints 32.6 ppg, Falcons 24.4 ppg), several under trends are in play. The Falcons are on under runs of 8-2 overall and 5-0 vs. winning teams. The Saints sport under streaks of 13-3 inside NFC South and 5-1 vs. winning teams.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32922 Followers:38
12/22/2011 08:23 PM

Week 16 Preview: Falcons at Saints



Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. EDT
Line: New Orleans -7, Total: 53

The Saints look to celebrate the holidays with an NFC South title when they host the rival Falcons on Monday night. New Orleans has won six consecutive games (SU and ATS), while Atlanta is 4-1 SU (2-1-2 ATS) in its past five contests.

These teams have played three straight games decided by a field goal, including Atlanta’s overtime win in New Orleans last season (which came courtesy of a 29-yard overtime miss by Saints K Garrett Hartley). Atlanta is coming off back-to-back wins and its passing game is clicking now that the team is finally healthy. The Falcons will likely rely on RB Michael Turner again (102 rushing YPG vs. Saints the last three seasons). The Saints should be able to beat Atlanta’s mediocre secondary. QB Drew Brees has been on fire lately, and has also surpassed 300 yards in his past three games against the Falcons. The pick here is NEW ORLEANS to win and cover the moderate spread.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also supports the Saints:

Play Against - Road underdogs or pick (ATLANTA) - after a win by 10 or more points against opponent after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored. (44-16 over the last 5 seasons.) (73.3%, +26.4 units. Rating = 3*).

The Under is 8-2 in the past 10 Falcons games and 4-2 in the past six Saints games. This three-star FoxSheets trend also believes the UNDER will occur:

NEW ORLEANS is 9-0 UNDER (+9.0 Units) off 2 consecutive road wins since 1992. The average score was NEW ORLEANS 25.1, OPPONENT 16.1 - (Rating = 3*).

Although the Falcons lost in overtime to the Saints on Nov. 13, QB Matt Ryan still threw for a career-high 351 yards in that narrow defeat. He has 242 passing YPG, 5 TD and 1 INT in his past three meetings with New Orleans. Ryan has been in quite a zone over the past five weeks, throwing for 278 YPG with 12 TD and 2 INT. WR Roddy White has been the main beneficiary of Ryan’s hot hand, piling up 537 receiving yards and 5 TD in these five contests. The Saints have had difficulty stopping White in the past, as he has tallied 829 yards and seven touchdowns in 13 career games against New Orleans. And the Saints pass defense has not shut down anybody this year, allowing the fifth-most passing yards in the NFL (256 YPG).

Brees continues to have a monster season, with 16 TD and 0 INT in his past five games. His production indoors has been off the charts, as he has completed 73% of his passes for 8.3 YPA, 25 TD and 3 INT when throwing with a roof over his head. He has also loved facing the Falcons in his career, beating them nine out of 12 times and throwing for 297 YPG, 23 TD and 10 INT in these dozen meetings. Somewhat lost in the gaudy passing attack for New Orleans is a running game that has been very good over the past four weeks (145 YPG on 5.0 YPC). Atlanta’s usually stingy run defense has been porous in the past three weeks, allowing 145 rushing YPG on a whopping 6.7 yards per carry.

Both teams have done a great job protecting the football, as Atlanta has two straight giveaway-free games and New Orleans had a string of four consecutive turnover-less contests before its two giveaways last week.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32922 Followers:38
12/22/2011 08:25 PM

Green Bay Packers Host Battered Bears Christmas Night

The Green Bay Packers no longer need to be concerned with perfection after suffering their first loss of the season last week. The Packers (13-1) simply need to beat their archrivals – the Chicago Bears (7-7) – to clinch the top seed in the NFC playoff race at home on Sunday Night Football.

Game time is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. (ET) with television coverage provided by NBC. Green Bay opened as a 13-point favorite according to the Don Best odds screen and has moved to -13½ at the Las Vegas Hilton with the total at 45. Some sports books have left the game off the board pending word on Chicago’s probable starting lineup.

Last year, it was the Bears who had an opportunity to prevent the Packers from making it to the postseason in their second meeting. But Green Bay obviously prevailed with a hard-fought 10-3 victory en route to winning 19 straight games, including Super Bowl XLV. However, the second-longest winning streak in NFL history ended with a surprising 19-14 road loss to the Kansas City Chiefs last Sunday.

The Packers fell to the Chiefs as 11-point favorites and had gone 9-4 against the spread in winning their previous 13 games this season. They are still without star wide receiver Greg Jennings due to a sprained knee and have suffered additional injuries to their offensive line, with offensive tackle Derek Sherrod undergoing season-ending surgery on his broken right leg and right tackle Bryan Bulaga out with a sprained right knee.

Running back James Starks could play for the first time in three weeks though after missing the past two games with an ankle injury.

Meanwhile, Chicago appeared headed back to the playoffs following a strong 7-3 start, but the team’s season began to fall apart when starting quarterback Jay Cutler fractured the thumb on his throwing hand in a 31-20 home win against the San Diego Chargers. The Bears have lost four in a row, going 1-3 ATS, following a five-game winning streak.

Caleb Hanie, Cutler’s backup, was nearly the hero against Green Bay in last year’s 21-14 loss in the NFC Championship Game, but he has been the goat during their current skid. Hanie has thrown three interceptions in three of his four starts in place of Cutler and is expected to be replaced by Josh McCown, who attempted two passes in relief of him at the end of a 38-14 home loss to the Seattle Seahawks last Sunday. Two of Hanie’s three picks against the Seahawks were returned for touchdowns.

Chicago’s chances to return to the postseason are slim at best right now, especially with McCown under center. He even threw an interception in his very brief action against Seattle and has not seen significant playing time since 2007 when he played in nine games for the Oakland Raiders.

The Bears were hoping both Cutler and running back Matt Forte would be able to return in this game, but neither player appears ready to go. They also lost wide receiver Johnny Knox for the rest of the season to a serious back injury, which required surgery on Monday.

The ‘under’ has cashed in the past eight meetings of the longest rivalry in league history, and Chicago figures to be offensively-challenge in this game as well. Green Bay has won the last three games between the teams along with five of six, going 4-2 ATS. The loser has not scored more than 17 points in the last nine meetings while the winner has totaled more than 21 once in the past seven. The Packers have scored exactly 21 points three times in the last six meetings.

The weather forecast for Christmas Day in Green Bay calls for a high temperature of 35, cooling down to a low of 27 at night under partly cloudy skies.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32922 Followers:38
12/22/2011 08:27 PM

Atlanta Falcons At New Orleans Saints Monday Night Football

The Atlanta Falcons are playing much better football as we head towards the postseason. They will try to prove it’s no fluke at the tough New Orleans Saints on Monday night.

Atlanta is 6½-point underdogs with the matchup sporting the highest total of the week at 53 points. ESPN will close out the Week 16 coverage at 8:30 p.m. (ET) from Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

The Falcons (9-5 straight up, 6-7-1 against the spread) can secure a wild card with a win or tie Monday or next week at home against Tampa Bay. The NFC South division is a much slimmer possibility as Atlanta has to win out, plus New Orleans lose at home to Carolina in its finale.

Coach Mike Smith’s team would be in much better shape if not for a 26-23 home loss to New Orleans on November 13. Smith made a very unorthodox move in OT by going for it on fourth down on his own 29-yard-line. It backfired and John Kasey kicked the game-winner.

Atlanta went into a little funk after that, going 2-1 SU but 0-2-1 ATS in its next three games. The cloud finally lifted in the second half at Carolina two games ago, storming back from a 23-7 halftime deficit for a 31-23 win. The Falcons then got their second straight win and cover last Thursday night, dismantling Jacksonville 41-14 as 13 ½-point home favorites.

The ‘over’ is 2-0 in Atlanta’s last two games after the ‘under’ was 8-0 in the previous eight.

The Falcons are well rested, but appear to be a step below the NFC elite of Green Bay, New Orleans and San Fran. Matt Ryan ranks 10th in QB rating, but is still working on his consistency. Roddy White (1,100 yards) is a very good receiver, although has battled drop problems. Rookie Julio Jones has come on the last three games (85.7 YPG), but has more to prove.

Michael Turner (1,129 yards) is third in the league in rushing, but is averaging just 60. 3 YPG on 3.3 yards per carry the last four. An ongoing groin injury has been part of the problem. It will be hard to stay patient with the running game this week when trying to match points with an offensive juggernaut like New Orleans.

The Falcons rank ninth in total defense (327.2 YPG) and hope to get starting cornerback Brent Grimes (knee) and reserve Kelvin Hayden (toe) back. That would be big.

New Orleans (11-3 SU, 10-4 ATS) is playing like a team on a mission with a 6-0 SU and ATS streak. Every win matters as it battles not just for the division crown, but also the No. 2 conference seed. The latter will require at least one loss by San Francisco, who does have a tough game at Seattle on Saturday.

The Saints won on the road the last two weeks at Minnesota (42-20) and Tennessee (22-17). That makes them 3-0 ATS away in their last three (including the Atlanta game) after starting the season 1-4 ATS. Green Bay should wrap up the No. 1 seed with a victory Sunday night and New Orleans will likely need a playoff win on the ‘frozen tundra’ to make the Super Bowl.

The Saints have been incredible at home, 6-0 SU and ATS with the average score 40-18. The ‘over’ is just 3-3 in those games with the last three totals in the 50s.

Quarterback Drew Brees is having a monster year, leading the league with 4,780 passing yards and 71.5 percent completions. He needs just 305 yards to break Dan Marino’s single season mark, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see him throwing late with a big lead.

The Saints rushing offense has really improved at 125.4 YPG (ranked eighth). Rookie Mark Ingram (toe) is questionable after missing the last two games, but there’s plenty of depth with Pierre Thomas, Chris Ivory and Darren Sproles.

Coach Sean Payton’s offense has a bit more trouble with NFC South teams, averaging 25.8 PPG in the four games, almost seven PPG less than the season average (32.6 PPG). The ‘under’ is 3-1 in those contests and 13-3 in the last 16 overall for New Orleans in the division.

Atlanta did win the last game in New Orleans, 27-24 in OT in September 2010. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the teams.

Weather is not a factor playing in the dome.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32922 Followers:38
12/22/2011 08:34 PM

Week 16 NFL Preview Capsules

December 22, 2011


Saturday, 1 p.m., CBS

OPENING LINE - Chiefs by 1

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Oakland 7-5-2; Kansas City 8-6

SERIES RECORD - Chiefs lead 55-48-2

LAST MEETING - Chiefs beat Raiders 28-0, Oct. 23, 2011

LAST WEEK - Raiders lost to Lions 28-27; Chiefs beat Packers 19-14





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Oakland needs to win last two games and have Kansas City beat Denver in Week 17 to win AFC West. Chiefs need to win last two, have San Diego lose one of its next two and have Denver lose at Buffalo on Saturday. ... Raiders have lost three straight. ... Chiefs 31-13 (.705) overall against Oakland dating to 1990, including 1991 playoff game. Kansas City 14-7 in regular season at Arrowhead Stadium. ... Kansas City had season-high 438 yards against Packers last Sunday. ... Chiefs intercepted season-high six passes in their first meeting with Oakland. ... QB Kyle Orton threw for 299 yards against Green Bay, hitting 10 different receivers in first start for Kansas City. ... K Ryan Succop has converted 21 straight field goals for Chiefs, longest active streak in NFL. ... Carson Palmer has three 300-yard passing games in eight starts, most by Raiders QB in a season since Kerry Collins had three in 2005. ... Raiders WR Darrius Heyward-Bey had career highs of eight catches for 155 yards last week against Detroit. RB Michael Bush tied career high with seven catches. ... Oakland highest scoring team in NFL in 2 minutes prior to halftime with 56 points. ... Raiders offensive coordinator Al Saunders spent 10 seasons as assistant with Kansas City (1989-98) and returned as assistant head coach from 2001-05.



Saturday, 1 p.m. CBS

OPENING LINE - Titans by 7 1/2

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Jacksonville 4-9-1; Tennessee 6-6-2

SERIES RECORD - Titans lead 19-15

LAST MEETING - Jaguars beat Titans 16-14, Sept. 11

LAST WEEK: Jaguars lost to Falcons 41-14; Titans lost to Colts 27-13.





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Jaguars rookie QB Blaine Gabbert has at least one TD pass in four of five road starts. ... Jaguars got first road win against AFC South opponent Nov. 13 at Colts. ... Maurice Jones-Drew (61) needs two rushing TDs to pass Fred Taylor (62) for most in team history. Jones-Drew has 73 career TDs, most total TDs in club history. Jones-Drew has NFL-best 1,334 yards rushing and needs 58 yards rushing to pass his career-best of 1,391 yards in 2009. Jones-Drew has run for 177 and 186 yards in his past two games at Tennessee. ... WR Chastin West caught his first TD pass of his career last week. ... LB Paul Posluszny leads Jaguars with 110 tackles. ... DE Jeremy Mincey has career-best 5 1/2 sacks. Titans QB Matt Hasselbeck has thrown for 750 yards with eight TDs and three interceptions with a 97.5 passer rating in past three games vs Jaguars. Hasselbeck needs 76 yards passing to reach 3,000 for eighth season. ... Chris Johnson needs 70 yards rushing to reach 1,000 for fourth straight season to start career. Johnson averaging 95.4 yards rushing in 11 career home games vs AFC South. ... Johnson (38) needs two rushing TDs to join Earl Campbell (73) and Eddie George (64) as only players to reach 40 for a career in team history. ... WR Nate Washington (66) needs four catches to become first Titans WR to reach 70 catches in season since 2004. Washington has AFC-best 27 catches on third down. ... CB Jason McCourty leads team with 90 tackles.


ST. LOUIS (2-12) At PITTSBURGH (10-4)

Saturday, 1 p.m., Fox


RECORD VS. SPREAD - St. Louis 2-12; Pittsburgh 6-7

SERIES RECORD - Rams lead 17-6-2

LAST MEETING - Steelers beat Rams 41-24, Dec. 20, 2007

LAST WEEK - Rams lost to Bengals 20-13; Steelers lost to 49ers 20-3





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - St. Louis has dominated series, and is 11-1-1 in Pittsburgh, lone loss coming in 1996. ... St. Louis DE Chris Long fifth in league with 13 sacks, fifth-highest total by a Rams player since stat became official in 1982. ... St. Louis RB Stephen Jackson needs 34 yards to top 1,000 yards for seventh straight season, longest active streak in league. ... Rams last in league in scoring, averaging 11.9 points per game while Steelers allowing 15.5 points per game, second-fewest in NFL. ... Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger needs to average 236 yards passing over final two games to break his team record for yards in a season (4,328) set in 2009. ... Pittsburgh TE Heath Miller broke franchise record for career receptions by tight end last week and needs three receptions to surpass Hall of Famer Lynn Swann for fourth-place on team's all-time reception list. ... Pittsburgh would finish 7-1 at Heinz Field this season with a victory, first time since 2007 Steelers have won at least seven home games in a season. ... Rams have lost five straight games. ... Steelers 3-3 all-time on Christmas Eve. ... Pittsburgh WR Hines Ward needs nine receptions to reach 1,000 for his career. He would become second player in NFL history to have 1,000 career receptions and multiple Super Bowl rings, joining Jerry Rice.


DENVER (8-6) At BUFFALO (5-9)

Saturday, 1 p.m., CBS

OPENING LINE - Broncos by 3

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Denver 7-7; Buffalo 6-7-1

SERIES RECORD - Bills lead 19-15-1

LAST MEETING - Bills beat Broncos 30-23, Dec. 21, 2008

LAST WEEK - Broncos lost to Patriots 41-23; Bills lost to Dolphins, 30-23





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Bills coach Chan Gailey is friends with Bob Tebow, father of Broncos QB Tim Tebow, going back to when the two attended Florida together in early 1970s. Gailey, who spent 2002-07 as Georgia Tech coach, attempted to recruit Tim Tebow to play for Yellow Jackets, but lost out to Florida. ... Broncos have won five of past six meetings. ... Denver, 7-2 in past nine, controls own destiny in attempting to clinch first playoff berth since 2005. ... Broncos averaging NFL-leading 161.3 yards rushing, and facing team that's allowing 139.5 yards rushing a game, including season-worst 254 last week. ... Tebow has engineered 18 scoring drives in fourth quarter or OT in past 10 games. ... RB Willis McGahee facing former team for third time since Buffalo traded 2003 first-round pick to Baltimore in March 2007. With 990 yards rushing this season, he's 10 yards from joining Ricky Watters in becoming second NFL player to reach 1,000 with three teams. ... LB Von Miller is second among NFL rookies with 11 1/2 sacks, and has matched franchise rookie record set by Rulon Jones in 1980. ... WR Demaryius Thomas leads NFL with 338 yards receiving this month. ... Bills have lost seven straight, their longest skid since 0-8 start last season. Destined for seventh straight losing season and will miss playoffs for 12 straight year - AFC's longest drought now that Houston clinched postseason berth this season. ... After outscoring opponents 211-142 in getting off to 5-2 start, have been outscored 224-100 in past seven. ... QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has NFL worst 19 interceptions, 12 coming in past seven games. ... Bills' defense generated 18 takeaways (14 interceptions, four fumbles) in first seven games; has two interceptions and six fumbles in past seven. ... RB C.J. Spiller had career-best 167 yards from scrimmage (91 rushing, 76 receiving) last week. ... DT Marcell Dareus has 5 1/2 sacks, most by team rookie since Aaron Schobel had 6 1/2 in 2001. ... Bills 1-4 all-time on Dec. 24.



Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox

OPENING LINE - Panthers by 7

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Tampa Bay 4-10; Carolina 8-5-1

SERIES RECORD - Panthers lead 13-9

LAST MEETING - Panthers beat Bucs 38-19

LAST WEEK - Bucs lost to Cowboys, 31-15; Panthers beat Texans 28-13





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Bucs have lost eight straight games. ... Bucs have scored 20 or more points in one of past eight games. ... .. QB Josh Freeman has eclipsed 3,000 yards passing for second straight year, but has more interceptions (18) than touchdown passes (15). ... Freeman didn't play in last meeting with Carolina. He has won past two starts against Carolina with 419 yards passing, four touchdowns and no interceptions. ... Bucs WR Mike Williams had 93 yards receiving in last meeting with Carolina. ... RB LaGarrette Blount was held to 19 yards rushing in the last meeting with Carolina. ... TE Kellen Winslow has caught a pass in 90 straight games. ... Ronde Barber has started 197 consecutive games, most by cornerback in NFL history. ... DE Adrian Clayborn tied for second among NFC rookies with 7 1/2 sacks. .. Panthers QB Cam Newton has 30 touchdowns (17 passing, 13 rushing), the most by rookie in NFL history. ... Newton needs 18 yards passing to break Peyton Manning's rookie passing record. Newton has 3,722 yards passing. ... In his last meeting with Bucs, Newton became first quarterback in NFL history to rush for three touchdowns, throw a touchdown pass and catch a pass. ... RB DeAngelo Williams has four rushing touchdowns in past four games. ... WR Steve Smith is second in NFC with 1,299 yards receiving and needs 101 to reach 1,400 yards receiving for third time in career. ... Panthers TE Richie Brockel scored first career touchdown last week on trick play. Brockel was on U.S. national team that won gold medal at IFAF World Championship. ... LB Jordan Senn had 14 tackles, an interception and a forced fumble last week against the Texans.



Saturday, 1 p.m., Fox

OPENING LINE - Redskins by 5 1/2

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Minnesota 5-8-1; Washington 7-7

SERIES RECORD - Redskins lead 11-9

LAST MEETING - Vikings beat Redskins 17-13, Nov. 28, 2010

LAST WEEK - Vikings lost to Saints 42-20; Redskins beat Giants 23-10





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Vikings have lost six straight, need to win last two to avoid matching or setting new worst record in franchise history. Current low-water mark is 3-13 in 1984. ... Minnesota hasn't lost seven in row in single season since expansion year of 1961. ... Win at Washington last November came in Leslie Frazier's debut as Minnesota's coach. He is 5-15 overall. ... Minnesota DE Jared Allen second in NFL with 17 1/2 sacks, needs 5 1/2 to surpass NFL season record (22 1/2 set by Michael Strahan in 2001). Allen has 27 1/2 sacks in last 23 games, including 16 in last 12. Since entering NFL in 2004, he has NFL-best 100 1/2 sacks. ... Vikings RB Adrian Peterson is 68 yards shy of fifth straight 1,000-yard season. ... Game features two of NFL's lowest rated quarterbacks: Minnesota's Christian Ponder (72.3) and Washington's Rex Grossman (71.4), ranked 28th and 29th, respectively. ... Ponder has been sacked at least three times in seven straight games. He has seven touchdowns and six interceptions in his last three. ... Grossman tied for first in NFL with 22 giveaways (18 interceptions, four lost fumbles). He has thrown at least one interception in 10 straight starts. ... Washington has committed at least one turnover in 28 straight games, longest active NFL streak. ... Redskins have lost five straight at home, haven't lost six straight home games since 1994. ... Redskins RB Roy Helu leads NFC rookies with 47 receptions. ... Washington LB Ryan Kerrigan is tied for second among NFC rookies with 7.5 sacks.



Saturday, 1 p.m., CBS

OPENING LINE - Ravens by 13

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Cleveland 5-8-1; Baltimore 7-6-1

SERIES RECORD - Ravens lead 18-7

LAST MEETING - Ravens beat Browns 24-10, Dec. 4

LAST WEEK - Browns lost to Cardinals 20-17 OT; Ravens lost to Chargers 34-14





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Second meeting this month between AFC North foes. Ravens have won seven straight in lopsided series. ... In last meeting, Ray Rice ran for career-high 204 yards on muddy field in Cleveland. ... Browns coach Pat Shurmur and Ravens mentor John Harbaugh coached together with Philadelphia from 1999-2007. ... Browns 1-6 on road; Ravens 7-0 at home. Browns 0-4 in division; Ravens 4-0. ... Cleveland expected to start Seneca Wallace at QB ahead of injured Colt McCoy (concussion). ... Browns LB D'Qwell Jackson, who leads team with 138 tackles, played in college at Maryland. ... Cleveland RB Peyton Hillis ran for 144 yards on 22 carries with TD in last game at Baltimore, a 24-17 defeat. ... Ravens seeking to complete first 8-0 season at home. ... Baltimore QB Joe Flacco 7-0 vs. Browns with eight TDs and four INTs. ... Ravens have won six straight AFC North games. ... Baltimore RB Ricky Williams needs 64 yards to reach 10,000 in career. ... Ravens signed K Shayne Graham on Wednesday. He is expected replace injured Billy Cundiff (calf). ... Ravens S Ed Reed has 10 career INTs vs. Cleveland, the most against any opponent. ... Baltimore is only NFL team that has not yielded a first-quarter sack.


MIAMI (5-9) At NEW ENGLAND (11-3)

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

OPENING LINE - Patriots by 9 1/2

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Miami 7-6; New England 7-6

SERIES RECORD - Dolphins lead 50-42

LAST MEETING - Patriots beat Dolphins 38-24, Sept. 12

LAST WEEK - Dolphins beat Bills 30-23; Patriots beat Broncos 41-23





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - In first meeting in season opener, teams combined for NFL single-game record of 906 yards passing. ... Patriots have won seven of last nine games against Dolphins. ... Teams tied for first in AFC with 34 pass plays of 25 yards or more. ... Miami coach Todd Bowles 1-0 since replacing fired Tony Sparano. ... RB Reggie Bush sixth in AFC with 973 yards rushing after gaining career-high 203 last Sunday. ... Dolphins have just 34 offensive penalties, second fewest in league to Jacksonville's 33. ... Miami 5-2 since losing first seven games. ...Matt Moore has completed fewer than 60 percent of his passes in each of last four games. ... Brandon Marshall second in NFL in receptions starting in 2007 with 463. New England's Wes Welker is first with 536. ... Patriots can clinch home-field advantage throughout AFC playoffs if they win and Houston, Baltimore and Pittsburgh all lose or tie. ... Tom Brady needs 491 yards passing in his last two games to pass NFL record-holder Dan Marino's 5,084. New Orleans' Drew Brees needs 304. ... Patriots 19-1 at home in December since 2002, when Gillette Stadium opened. ... Rob Gronkowski needs 150 yards receiving in last two games to surpass record of 1,290 for tight ends set in 1980 by Kellen Winslow of San Diego. ... Patriots have allowed most total yards for season in NFL for all but first two weeks.



Saturday, 1 p.m., Fox

OPENING LINE - Jets by 3

RECORD VS. SPREAD - NY Giants 6-8; NY Jets 6-8

SERIES RECORD - Giants lead 7-4

LAST MEETING - Giants beat Jets 35-24, Oct. 7, 2007

LAST WEEK - Giants lost to Redskins 23-10; Jets lost to Eagles 45-19





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - After week of trash talk, most of it from Jets coach Rex Ryan, teams meet in showdown of New York-area rivals with plenty of playoff implications. If Giants beat Jets and then Dallas next weekend, they win NFC East and return to playoffs for first time since 2008. Two wins will likely clinch Jets a third straight wild-card appearance under Ryan. ... Three players in game have played for both Ryan and Giants coach Tom Coughlin: Jets WR Plaxico Burress and QB Mark Brunell, and Giants P Steve Weatherford. ... Giants have lost five of last six, but have won last four regular-season games against Jets. ... QB Eli Manning has thrown for franchise-record 4,362 yards, and with 25 TDs joined Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Dan Marino and Drew Brees as only QBs with at least 3,000 yards and 20 TDs in seven straight seasons. Manning, who won only other start vs. Jets, has 14 TDs in fourth quarter, tied for most in a season. Also has three 400-yard games, tied for NFL's single-season mark. ... WR Victor Cruz has 1,194 yards receiving and needs 150 in last two games to top Amani Toomer's team record set in 2002. ... Hakeem Nicks has 1,096 yards receiving, making him and Cruz the first pair of Giants WRs to have 1,000 yards in same season. ... DE Jason Pierre-Paul has 13 1/2 sacks, and at least a half-sack in 10 of 14 games this season. ... Jets looking to improve to 7-1 at home, which would match best mark in team history - last set in 1998. ... Burress facing Giants for first time since they released him in 2009 after accidentally shooting himself in November 2008. Later served 20 months in prison on gun charge, and signed with Jets less than two months after release. ... QB Mark Sanchez needs 283 yards passing to top career best of 3,291 set last season. ... RB Shonn Greene needs 59 yards rushing to reach 1,000 for the first time in three-year career. Leads AFC with four TDs rushing in December. ... RB LaDainian Tomlinson has 13,599 yards rushing, 64 from passing Jerome Bettis for fifth place on c areer list. ... WR Santonio Holmes has TD catch in four straight games, and he and Burress are only duo from same team in AFC with at least eight TD receptions. ... KR-RB Joe McKnight leads NFL with 32.3 yard kickoff return average, but status was uncertain as he recovers from separated right shoulder and hyperextended right elbow.



Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox

OPENING LINE - Bengals by 5 1/2

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Arizona 7-6-1; Cincinnati 7-5-2

SERIES RECORD - Bengals lead 5-4

LAST MEETING - Cardinals 35-27, Nov. 18, 2007

LAST WEEK - Cardinals beat Browns 20-17 OT; Bengals beat Rams 20-13





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Cardinals have won four in a row and six of seven. They can stay in playoff contention with win over Bengals and loss by either Atlanta or Detroit. ... Win would give them their first five-game winning streak since 1977, when they won six in a row. ... Arizona has three overtime wins, tying NFL record for a season. Denver also has three OT wins this year. ... Cardinals have overcome fourth-quarter deficits six times this season, tied for second-most such wins by any team since 1970. Indianapolis did it seven times in 2009. ... RB Beanie Wells has 994 yards rushing and 10 TDs. He needs six yards to become first Cardinal with 1,000 yards and 10 TDs. ... Cincinnati tied with Jets for final AFC wild card berth, but New York has tiebreakers in its favor. ... Game will match Bengals WR A.J. Green, the fourth overall pick, and Cardinals CB Patrick Peterson, the fifth overall pick. They went head-to-head twice in college at Georgia and LSU, splitting their two games. ... Green needs seven catches and four yards receiving to top Cris Collinsworth's club rookie records from 1981. ... QB Andy Dalton needs two TD passes to join Peyton Manning, Charlie Conerly and Dan Marino with 20 as a rookie. ... Dalton became the fifth rookie to throw for 3,000 yards last week, joining Manning, Cam Newton, Sam Bradford and Matt Ryan. ... Game won't be sold out. Cincinnati has sold out one of its seven games at Paul Brown Stadium, when Steelers brought thousands of fans.


SAN DIEGO (7-7) At DETROIT (9-5)

Saturday, 4:05 p.m., CBS

OPENING LINE - Lions by 3

RECORD VS. SPREAD - San Diego 5-9; Detroit 6-6-2

SERIES RECORD - Chargers 6-3

LAST MEETING - Chargers beat Lions 51-14, Dec. 16, 2007

LAST WEEK - Chargers beat Ravens 34-14; Lions beat Raiders 28-27





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Detroit can clinch first playoff berth since 1999 season with win. ... Last week, Chargers QB Philip Rivers joined Peyton Manning and Drew Brees as only passers with at least four consecutive 4,000-yard seasons. Rivers 23-2 as starter in December, best mark among QBs who began careers in Super Bowl era with minimum of 15 starts. ... Lions have won record four games after trailing by at least 13 points. ... San Diego TE Antonio Gates needs three catches to surpass Hall of Famer Charlie Joiner (586) for franchise record. ... Lions QB Matthew Stafford is second-youngest QB to pass for at least 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns in season, behind Dan Marino. ... Detroit WR Calvin Johnson has 14 touchdown catches, joining Lance Alworth and Jerry Rice as only players with at least 12 in three of first five seasons. ... San Diego has converted NFL-best 83.3 percent on third-and-less-than-4. ... Lions have scored NFL-best 63 points on drives of under four plays. ... Chargers allowing opponents to convert 46.7 percent of third downs - second-highest mark in league. ... Detroit has allowed 63 points in final two minutes of first or second half, second-highest total in league.



Saturday, 4:15 p.m., Fox

OPENING LINE - 49ers by 3

RECORD VS. SPREAD - San Francisco 11-2-1; Seattle 9-4-1

SERIES RECORD - Seahawks lead 13-12.

LAST MEETING - 49ers beat Seahawks 33-17, Sept. 11

LAST WEEK - 49ers beat Steelers 20-3; Seahawks beat Bears 38-14





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - San Francisco beat Seattle 33-17 in season opener on strength of two kick returns for touchdowns by Ted Ginn, Jr. in final 4 minutes after Seattle had pulled within 19-17. ... San Francisco has won two straight over Seattle, both in Bay Area. ... Win by San Francisco and loss by New Orleans would clinch No. 2 seed and first-round playoff bye for 49ers. ... QB Alex Smith has won 12 of past 15 starts dating back to last season and is 5-1 in last six starts vs. NFC West. 49ers 10-0 this season when Smith has a passer rating of more than 100. ... 49ers have allowed five touchdowns in first half this season and haven't surrendered a touchdown rushing all year. According to STATS LLC, since 1932 no team has allowed zero touchdowns rushing in a season. The fewest is two. 49ers are first team in NFL history to not allow a TD rushing in first 14 games. They have not allowed 100-yard rusher in 36 games in row, longest active streak in league. ... Offensive line gave up no sacks vs. Steelers after Smith was clobbered 18 times in previous three games. ... LB Aldon Smith leads all rookies with 13 sacks. ... Seahawks have won five of six to inch back into NFC playoff race, but needs to win its final two games and get two losses from Detroit and/or Atlanta to have shot at postseason. ... Seattle had string of six straight games with at least 100 yards rushing snapped last week at Chicago when Seahawks were held to 60 yards. ... Marshawn Lynch had worst game in yards rushing since Week 8 against Cincinnati with 42 yards on 20 carries vs. Bears, but scored two touchdowns rushing to give him 11 for season. He's scored a TD in 10 straight games, longest streak in franchise history. ... Lynch also became Seattle's first 1,000-yard rusher since Shaun Alexander ran for 1,880 yards and 27 touchdowns in his MVP season of 2005. ... QB Tarvaris Jackson was 15 of 19 for 176 yards, one touchdown and a passer rating of 122.8 in the second half against Chicago. ... Since Week 10, Seattle has 18 takeaways, most in NFL. ... Seattle has climbed to fifth in league with a plus-8 turnover margin. ... CB Brandon Browner has at least one interception in four straight games, tying franchise record. He set franchise record for interception return yards in a season last week vs. Chicago with his 42-yard interception return for a touchdown.



Saturday, 4:15 p.m., Fox

OPENING LINE - Dallas by 3

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Philadelphia 6-8; Dallas 5-8-1

SERIES RECORD - Cowboys lead 59-46

LAST MEETING - Eagles beat Cowboys 34-7, Oct. 30

LAST WEEK - Eagles beat Jets 45-19; Cowboys beat Buccaneers 31-15





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Dallas wins NFC East by winning last two games. ... Eagles can still win division and make playoffs if they win last two games and get some help. But they would be eliminated from postseason contention even before playing Dallas if Giants win earlier against Jets. ... Philadelphia going for first season sweep of Cowboys since 2006. ... All Cowboys' losses this season have been close, except 34-7 at Philadelphia on Oct. 30. Their other five losses have been by average margin of four points, biggest being 19-13 in OT at Arizona. ... Two of NFL sack leaders will be featured. Philadelphia's Jason Babin leads the NFL with 18 sacks, three shy of Reggie White's team record set in 1987. Dallas' DeMarcus Ware is third with 16. ... Ware had three sacks in 2010 season finale against Eagles. ... Eagles and Houston Texans are only two teams in NFL ranked in top 10 in both total offense and total defense. ... Cowboys 2-3 in games played on Christmas Eve. Philadelphia 2-2 the night before Christmas, 0-2 on road. ... Dallas playing games on consecutive Saturdays for only second time in team history. The other time was 1974.


CHICAGO (7-7) At GREEN BAY (13-1)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC

OPENING LINE - Packers by 12 1/2

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Bears 7-7; Green Bay 9-5

SERIES RECORD - Bears lead 92-85-6

LAST MEETING - Packers beat Bears 27-17, Sept. 25

LAST WEEK - Bears lost to Seahawks 38-14; Packers lost to Chiefs 19-14





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Packers can clinch home-field advantage in NFC with win, or San Francisco loss, on Sunday. ... Packers' loss at Kansas City last Sunday broke 19-game winning streak and was first loss in nearly a year, having lost at New England on Dec. 19, 2010. ... Will be fourth meeting between Bears and Packers in 2011. Two teams faced off in 2010 regular season finale, NFC championship game, and earlier this season. ... QB Aaron Rodgers is first Packers player and fifth player overall in NFL history to throw 40-plus touchdowns in season. ... Five of WR Jordy Nelson's 10 touchdowns this season have been for 35-plus yards. ... WR Donald Driver has 9,979 yards receiving and needs 21 to become the Packers player with 10,000. ... CB Charles Woodson has five interceptions against Bears. Since joining Packers in 2006, Woodson has 37 interceptions and nine interception returns for touchdowns. ... Bears would be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss. ... Josh McCown replaces Caleb Hanie as Bears starting QB after Hanie struggled in wake of Jay Cutler's thumb injury. McCown hasn't started a game since Dec. 23, 2007, for Oakland against Jacksonville. ... Cutler remains out, and RB Matt Forte expected to remain sidelined with knee injury. ... Including NFC championship game, Bears LB Brian Urlacher aims for third game in row vs. Packers with an interception. ... Bears DE Julius Peppers had sack and fumble recovery in last game vs. Packers. Since entering NFL in 2002, Peppers is tied for third in league with 99 sacks.



Monday, 8:30 p.m. ESPN

OPENING LINE - Saints by 6 1/2

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Atlanta 7-6-1; New Orleans 10-4

SERIES RECORD - Falcons lead 45-39

LAST MEETING - Saints beat Falcons 26-23 OT, Nov. 13

LAST WEEK - Saints beat Vikings 42-20; Falcons beat Jaguars 41-14





STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Falcons have won seven of past nine games, with one of two loses coming against New Orleans. ... QB Matt Ryan has completed 64 percent of his passes for 544 yards, seven TDs and no INTs in last two games. ... Ryan needs 302 yards passing to become second Falcons QB with 4,000 yards passing in a season. ... WR Roddy White had 10 catches for 135 yards and two TDs last week. ... White has five TDs in his past four games and also has 1,100 yards receiving this season, his team-record fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season. ... Rookie WR Julio Jones has eight catches for 189 yards and three TDs in his past two games. ... DE John Abraham had 3 1/2 sacks and two forced fumbles last week. ... Saints have won six straight. ... QB Drew Brees leads NFL with 4,780 yards passing. ... Brees needs 305 yards to pass Hall of Fame QB Dan Marino (5,084 in 1984) for most yards passing in season. ... Brees has passed for 300 or more yards in a game 11 times this season, the most in a season in NFL history. ... Brees has 20 or more completions in NFL-record 34 straight games. ... Brees has a TD pass in 41 consecutive games, second-longest streak in NFL history behind Johnny Unitas (47). ... Jimmy Graham leads NFL TEs in receptions (87) and yards receiving (1,171). ... Saints have won nine of 11 vs. Atlanta since Sean Payton became New Orleans coach in 2006. ... Darren Sproles leads NFL with 2,292 combined yards (496 rushing, 659 receiving, 888 on kickoff returns, 249 on punt returns).

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32922 Followers:38
12/22/2011 08:43 PM

Las Vegas Money Moves

December 22, 2011

With Christmas fast approaching, business has been brisk in the Las Vegas sports books. Regular bankrolls for most players are finding that has become a little smaller this week because of obligations to buying the wife and kids all the gifts they asked Santa for.
This is nothing new. It’s always slow at this time of the year, but as the clock gets closer to kickoff, the traffic starts to mount, and sometimes at a more rapid pace than other weeks.

This Friday night sports books will be jumping and it will go all the way until kickoff on Saturday. Because so many people are waiting until the last minute -- just like their shopping -- it will be quite a spectacle to watch it all unfold. Extra writers will be on duty treating Friday and Saturday as if it were a Saturday and Sunday.

Make no mistake about it, though, the masses will get their bets in one way or another for Week 16 of the NFL season even if the games are on a Saturday with Christmas Eve festivities trumping regular viewing routines.

One of the initial favorites of large money early in the week was taking the Chiefs at PICK ’EM against the Raiders and betting them all the way to minus-2. The Raiders have a lot going for them historically coming in despite losing their last three games in a row and being on the verge of blowing a playoff spot.

Not only have the Raiders won the last four games at Arrowhead Stadium, but they have also covered their last eight games on the road against AFC West opponents. They started the season out 5-0 against the spread on the road, but didn’t cover their last two. They had two bad road losses at Miami and Green Bay to suggest that maybe they have packed it in and will wait for a full season next year with quarterback Carson Palmer and running back Darren McFadden.

However, Oakland showed some grit last week against Detroit, but ran out of gas at the costliest moment -- the end of the game.

Meanwhile, Kansas City has a new coach, new quarterback and most of all, a new attitude. After just knocking off the previously undefeated Packers, they probably feel that they can beat anyone. While this could set up to be a major let down spot for the Chiefs, the influx of new characters running the team might not allow for that to happen.

The team the Chiefs are trying to catch, Denver, is being bet against in their game at Buffalo. The Broncos opened as 3-point favorites, but money came in on the Bills knocking it to -3 (EVEV) and finally down to -2.5 points. Despite the Tim Tebow show coming to town, the game will still be blacked out in Buffalo because of not selling out.

It will be interesting to see how the young quarterback responds being not only a favorite, but having the AFC West crown in his hands with two games to go. Buffalo is a dangerous team here with a seven-game losing streak just trying to salvage anything it can to close out their season. For whatever its worth, Denver has won the last three games in Buffalo.

The other part of the AFC West equation has the red-hot Chargers of December cruising into Detroit with plenty of backing behind them. Perhaps it was just a matter of bettors getting the attractive initial number of +3 (-120), but the number is down to +2.5 flat after some moves on the money attached. The Lions can clinch a playoff spot with a win, but Philip Rivers is now 23-2 as a starter in December.

The NFC East has some great drama going on as both the Cowboys and Giants appear to be content with making the next two weeks the most action packed, thrilling roller-coaster ride we've ever seen. While those two teams figure out ways to lose, the Eagles have suddenly come to life and money is backing them this week.

The Cowboys opened -2.5 (-120) for their home game against the Eagles and the line currently sits at -1.5. After the pounding Philadelphia put on the Jets last week, we are all starting believe that this was the Eagles team we expected to see from the beginning of the year.

The Giants and Jets have met 11 times (NYG 7-4) while sharing the Big Apple spotlight, but none of the previous 11 games had as much meaning as this one with playoff spots on the line for each. Should the Jets lose an entire new landscape opens up in the AFC with several teams within grasp of a Wild Card berth. Should the Giants lose, it opens the door up for the Eagles to stay alive with a win.

Either way, it should be fun just because of the war of words which first began with Rex Ryan firing the first shot on Monday saying, "I'm not anyone's little brother" and "The Jets are the better team since he's been in New York." Victor Cruz also said Revis Island isn't feared as it once was and teams are going right at him. Besides all the fun with the media, the line has remained quite dull as Jets opened the favorite at -3 (EVEN) and it hasn't moved.

The Cardinals have been on a tear lately winning six of their last seven games and have been given all the respect in the world with bettors because the line hasn't moved from the Bengals opener of -4. Among those six wins includes victories over the Eagles, Cowboys and 49ers. This would appear to be a great situation for the Bengals at home with a Wild Card berth within reach, but somehow Arizona continues to amaze on a weekly basis.

Seattle is almost as hot as the Cardinals and it’s getting 2.5 points at home against the 49ers on a very short week for them. The Seahawks have won five of their last six, which includes big wins against the Ravens and Eagles. The 49ers initially opened as 1.5-point favorites before their win against the Steelers, then were reposted at -2.5 (-120) and are now -2.5 flat.

Carolina showed that they can play with the best last week after dominating Houston on the road and bettors laid -7 with them at home against the Buccaneers. The number is now -7.5.

The Browns have found some money with Seneca Wallace starting at quarterback again this week at Baltimore. The Ravens opened -13.5 and are now -12. Wallace and the Browns covered at Arizona last week, but still lost 20-17. The Ravens come off a blowout loss at San Diego and will be without wide receiver Anquan Boldin (knee) for at least two weeks.

QB Caleb Hanie gets the hook this week after four unsuccessful starts for the Bears in favor of Josh McCown for their Christmas night game at Green Bay. The Packers opened as 11.5-point favorites and between a few bets and moves, the game is now -13 or -13.5 everywhere.

The “Game of the Week” is Monday between the Saints and Falcons and the line hasn't moved. The Saints are 6-0 ATS at home this year while the Falcons are 9-1 ATS in the last four weeks of the last three seasons.

Have a great holiday weekend and may Santa bring you the four-team parlay you deserve, early on Saturday. ?

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32922 Followers:38
12/22/2011 08:45 PM

Tip Sheet - Week 16

December 22, 2011

The Christmas Eve card in the NFL is an interesting one with only two weeks remaining in the regular season. The two most interesting races down the stretch involve the AFC West and NFC East, as both divisions have at least three teams fighting for the title. We'll begin the Saturday preview with a battle of New Jersey, pitting two clubs that desperately need a victory.

Giants at Jets (-2 ½, 45 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

These two squads are always the talk of New York, but the discussion recently has circled around the meltdown of Big Blue. Tom Coughlin's Giants are 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS the last six games to fall out of first place inside the NFC East, capped off by an ugly 23-10 home defeat to the Redskins in Week 15. The Giants will head to the visiting locker room at Met Life Stadium on Saturday to take on a Jets' team that was embarrassed at Philadelphia, 45-19 as three-point road underdogs.

The Jets begin Week 16 tied for the sixth spot inside the AFC playoff race at 8-6 with the Bengals, but New York has plenty to play for in the final two games. Rex Ryan's gang owns a 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS record at home this season, while cashing the 'over' in each of the last four contests. The Giants are a profitable 4-2 ATS in six games as an underdog this season, including outright victories at New England, Philadelphia, and Dallas.

Broncos (-2 ½, 41 ½) at Bills - 1:00 PM EST

Buffalo's season has gone by the wayside with seven consecutive losses, but the Bills can still impact the AFC playoff picture with a victory over the Broncos. Denver was humbled by New England this past Sunday as seven-point home 'dogs, 41-23, after taking an early 16-7 lead. The loss snapped a six-game winning streak for Denver, as the Broncos need to win one of their final two games to clinch a playoff berth.

Denver is listed as a favorite for the fifth time this season, but the Broncos have compiled a 1-3 ATS mark, while each game has been decided by three points or less. Since Tim Tebow's arrival at the starting quarterback position, the Broncos are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS, including a 5-0 SU/ATS mark away from Denver. During Buffalo's seven-game skid, the Bills have covered just one game, a 28-24 road loss to the Jets as 9 ½-point underdogs.

Raiders at Chiefs (-2, 42) - 1:00 PM EST

Both Oakland and Kansas City have a shot to still win the AFC West title, but each rival has to capture victories in the final two games to make the postseason. The Raiders are playing the worst of any AFC team in playoff contention with three consecutive losses, while trying to avenge a 28-0 home shutout at the hands of the Chiefs in late October. Kansas City pulled off the biggest upset of the season by stunning previously undefeated Green Bay this past Sunday as 11-point 'dogs, 19-14.

The Chiefs have turned into one of the streakiest teams in the NFL this season, by compiling a pair of substantial losing skids, while also putting up a four-game winning streak. Kansas City is an incredible 8-3 ATS as an underdog, but owns an 0-3 ATS mark when laying points, with all three losses coming as home favorites. The Chiefs are 8-1 to the 'under' the last nine games, while the Raiders have finished 'over' the total in each of the previous five contests. This series has been dominated by the road team, going 9-1 SU/ATS the last 10 meetings, including four consecutive wins by the Raiders at Arrowhead Stadium.

Chargers at Lions (-2 ½, 52) - 4:05 PM EST

San Diego's resurgence continued after slamming Baltimore on Sunday night to improve to 7-7 on the season, as the Bolts head to the Motor City. The Lions rallied from a 13-point deficit to shock the Raiders, 28-27 for their ninth win, while Detroit attempts to creep closer to a Wild Card berth. Detroit's defense will be tested after allowing 27 points or more for the sixth straight week, as the Lions face a Chargers' offense that has scored at least 34 points in each of their last three victories.

Norv Turner's club has been nearly unbeatable in December and January of the regular season since 2008 with a 15-2 SU and 11-5-1 ATS ledger, including a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS record this month. The Chargers are riding a 7-1 stretch to the 'over' in their last eight away games, while the Lions have hit the 'over' in six of their previous seven interconference games. Detroit started hot at Ford Field, but the Lions are helping backers at home with a 1-4 ATS mark the last five games in the Motor City.

Eagles at Cowboys (-1 ½, 50 ½) - 4:15 PM EST

The most intriguing game of the Christmas Eve card takes place in the Lone Star State as Philadelphia looks to keep its late-season surge going against Dallas. The Eagles are coming off consecutive blowouts of AFC East opponents in wins over the Dolphins and Jets to improve to 6-8, while going for a season sweep of the Cowboys. Dallas took care of its business in a 31-15 rout of struggling Tampa Bay as seven-point favorites for its eighth win of the season, as the Cowboys halted a four-game ATS skid.

The last time these teams hooked up in Philadelphia, the Eagles racked up nearly 500 yards of offense in a 34-7 thumping of the Cowboys as three-point favorites. Michael Vick threw two touchdown passes, while LeSean McCoy rushed for 185 yards and two scores for their first home win of the season in Week 8. That loss by the Cowboys snapped a 5-0 ATS run in the series, while Dallas has won three of the last four home meetings with the Eagles. Dallas needs to get back on track as a favorite, going 2-5 ATS the last seven games in the 'chalk' role.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32922 Followers:38
12/22/2011 08:49 PM

Caesars Palace Sports Book Weekly Update

Caesars Palace Senior Race and Sports Book Analyst Todd Fuhrman stopped by just before the holiday weekend to talk about some of the upcoming bowl games in college football as well as some juicy NFL matchups.

Southern Miss head coach Larry Fedora will be on the sidelines for North Carolina next season but he still has one more game to coach with his Golden Eagles on Saturday. They will take on the Nevada Wolf Pack as 8-point favorites in the Sheraton Hawaii Bowl. That’s a big jump as Southern Miss opened at -6 at Caesars on the Don Best odds screen. The current total is 62½.

One of the best non-BCS bowl games just might be the Champs Sports Bowl between Florida State and Notre Dame on Thursday, December 29. The Seminoles are sitting on that key number of -3 over the Fighting Irish as the game will be played at the Florida Citrus Bowl in Orlando. Right now the total is 47.

Heisman winner Robert Griffin III will lead his Baylor Bears into the Valero Alamo Bowl against the Huskies of Washington following up that game in Hawaii on ESPN. Bluntly put by Fuhrman, “I think Washington is an extremely live underdog.” The Huskies are a 9½-point dog with the total set at 79.

One of the most incredible stats that may be crucial to this game is that schools with the Heisman Trophy winner are just 10-25-1 against the spread in bowl games the last 36 years.

An absolutely monumental collision is brewing in the state of New York this weekend, or rather, in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The Giants and Jets will face off at MetLife Stadium in a game they each need to emerge victorious in order to keep their playoff hopes intact. Technically slated as the home team, the Jets are favored by a field goal over their NFC brother with a total of 46.

Christmas Eve football this Saturday also includes a big pairing out of the NFC East between the Eagles and Cowboys in Arlington. It’s open season for bettors pounding the Eagles as the Cowboys were favored by a field goal in some spots but are just -1½ now at Caesars. The total is 50½.

Finally, ESPN’s Monday Night Football will conclude its season with a superb battle out of the NFC South. The New Orleans Saints are just under the key number at -6½ over the visiting Atlanta Falcons.

Drew Brees has been on fire and proves every week that he is a top QB in the NFL. He needs just 305 yards to pass Dan Marino’s single-season passing yards record of 5,084 with two games to go.

The highest total of the week award goes to this contest at 52½.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32922 Followers:38
12/24/2011 12:46 AM


Week 16

NFL betting weather report: Week 16

Find out how weather will impact your bets in Week 16 of the NFL season:

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (+1.5, 41.5)

Christmas Eve is a chilly one in Orchard Park. Temperatures will dip into the low 30s with a chance of snow to begin the game.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-9.5, 48)

The Fins are a long way from South Beach on Xmas Eve. Temperatures in Gillette Stadium will drop into the mid 20s.

New York Giants at New York Jets (-3, 45.5)

The battle of the Big Apple will be a cold one. Temperatures will be in the mid 30s when these squads fight for MetLife Stadium bragging rights.

St. Louis Rams at Pittsburgh Steelers (-15.5, 37.5)

The Rams will be longing for the cozy domed confines when temperatures dip into the low 30s at Heinz Field Friday.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (+1, 37.5)

While rain isn’t showing up in the forecast now, there’s a 35 percent chance of precipitation at CenturyLink Field Friday. It is, after all, Seattle. Game-time temperatures will fall into the low 40s.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-12.5, 43.5)

Those bettors dreaming of a white Christmas won’t find it at Lambeau Field. While temperatures will be in the high 20s, there’s just a 14 percent chance of snow.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: