You are using an old web browser. Such browsers do not support modern web technologies and do not offer proper security. Please update your browser or download one of the others suggested for free.
Mozilla Firefox |
Google Chrome |
Internet Explorer |
Montana State vs. New Mexico, 12/20/2011 21:00
Point Spread: +22½/-110 Montana State
New Mexico has a quality team this season under head coach Steve Alford. The Lobos are off to an 8-2 start, which includes a 7-2 ATS mark. But because of this fast start, I believe New Mexico is way overvalued tonight.
Montana State is 5-5 this year and they have shown pretty well on the road all season. They beat Utah 70-64 on the road as a 6-point dog, while also upsetting San Jose State away from hom as a 3.5-point dog. The Bobcats nearly beat Arizona State on the road as well, falling 72-78 as a 13.5-point underdog. ASU is a commont opponent for these teams as UNM beat the Sun Devils 76-71.
This play falls into a system that is a very profitable 33-9 (78.6%) ATS since 1997. It tells us to bet against favorites of 20 or more points (NEW MEXICO) - hot team - having covered 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, good team, winning 60-80% or more of their games on the season.
New Mexico is coming off back-to-back solid wins over two teams from BCS conferences. They beat USC 44-41 before topping Oklahoma State 66-56. This certainly sets the Lobos up for a letdown spot against the Bobcats. Because the Lobos have covered six straight, oddsmakers have over-adjusted tonight. Bet Montana State Tuesday.