cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
12/13/2011 07:27 PM

Inside the Numbers - Week 15

December 13, 2011

Thursday, Dec. 15 (8:25 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

JAX: 6-0 'under' L6 away
JAX: 1-5-1 ATS L7 away underdog
ATL: 8-1 'under' L9 overall
ATL: 6-2-1 ATS L9 vs AFC

Saturday, Dec. 17 (8:20 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

DAL: 2-10-1 ATS L13 favorite
DAL: 2-4 ATS L6 off home loss
TB: 2-12 ATS L14 home underdog
TB: 1-8-1 ATS L10 home vs non-division

Sunday, Dec. 18 (1:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

WSH: 5-1 ATS L6 vs division
WSH: 5-3 ATS L8 off home loss
NYG: 4-6 ATS L10 vs division
NYG: 5-13-1 ATS L19 home favorite

GB: 12-7 ATS L19 away
GB: 6-0 ATS L6 vs AFC
KC: 5-1 ATS L6 home underdog
KC: 8-1 ATS L9 vs NFC

NOR: 4-10 ATS L14 away favorite
NOR: 6-3 ATS L9 off away game
MIN: 2-7-1 ATS L10 home underdog
MIN: 6-2 'over' L8 overall

SEA: 8-2-1 ATS L11 overall
SEA: 4-7-1 ATS L12 away
CHI: 9-3 'over' L12 home
CHI: 5-3 ATS L8 home vs non-division

MIA: 11-5 ATS L16 away
MIA: 3-6 ATS L9 vs division
BUF: 8-3 'under' L11 home
BUF: 4-8 ATS L12 vs division

CAR: 4-8 ATS L12 away
CAR: 4-7 ATS L11 vs AFC
HOU: 6-2-1 ATS L9 home
HOU: 2-5-1 ATS L8 vs NFC

TEN: 7-4 ATS L11 vs division
TEN: 7-0 'under' L7 overall
IND: 0-7 ATS L7 single-digit underdog
IND: 6-1 'under' L7 overall

CIN: 6-1-1 ATS L8 away
CIN: 3-5 ATS L8 vs NFC
STL: 2-7 ATS L9 home
STL: 5-2 ATS L7 vs AFC

Sunday, Dec. 18 (4:05 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

DET: 5-3 ATS L8 vs AFC
DET: 7-2-1 'over' L10 away
OAK: 8-3 ATS L11 off loss
OAK: 7-3 'over' L10 home

Sunday, Dec. 18 (4:15 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

NE: 10-4 ATS L14 away
NE: 6-3-1 ATS L10 off away win
DEN: 6-2 ATS L8 overall
DEN: 2-7 ATS L9 home

NYJ: 4-6 ATS L10 away
NYJ: 2-5 ATS L7 vs NFC
PHI: 2-7 ATS L9 favorite
PHI: 3-7 ATS L10 vs AFC

CLE: 3-5 ATS L8 off ATS win
CLE: 7-3 'over' L10 vs NFC
ARZ: 6-2 ATS L8 home
ARZ: 2-4 ATS L6 vs AFC

Sunday, Dec. 18 (8:20 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

BAL: 6-4 ATS L10 away favorite
BAL: 6-1 ATS L7 vs AFC West
SDG: 10-3 'under' L13 home
SDG: 7-4 ATS L11 off win

Monday, Dec. 19 (8:35 p.m. ET)
Matchup Inside the Numbers

PIT: 5-2 ATS L7 vs NFC
PIT: 2-4 ATS L6 away
SFO: 8-0-1 ATS L9 home
SFO: 7-1 ATS L8 off loss

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
12/13/2011 08:05 PM

Week 15 Preview: Cowboys at Buccaneers



Kickoff: Saturday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Dallas -6, Total: 46

The Cowboys are desperate for a win and there is no better NFC team to be facing right now than the Buccaneers, who have lost seven straight games (1-6 ATS).

The struggling Bucs are once again trying to figure out how to win at home. They’ve lost three straight at Raymond James (SU and ATS), the last two in ugly fashion (outscored by a combined 75-28 by Houston and Carolina). They’re now 5-10 ATS at home over the past two seasons, and their porous run defense figures to have trouble stopping a Dallas running game that was still effective with RB Felix Jones replacing injured DeMarco Murray last week. Considering the new, conservative Tony Romo, that should play into the Cowboys’ hands. The pick here is DALLAS to win and cover.

This FoxSheets give two more reasons to fade the Buccaneers:

TAMPA BAY is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TAMPA BAY 17.7, OPPONENT 26.4 - (Rating = 2*).

TAMPA BAY is 1-10 ATS (9.1%, -10.0 Units) as a home underdog of 7 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TAMPA BAY 13.8, OPPONENT 29.5 - (Rating = 2*).

The Cowboys must quickly forget about blowing a 12-point lead with under four minutes left in regulation to the division rival Giants. Tampa Bay should oblige, as Dallas has beaten the Bucs in the past three meetings (SU and ATS), including the last matchup in 2009. Romo threw for 353 yards and 3 TD in that game, leading the Cowboys to a 34-21 win. Romo is also coming off a 321-yard, four-touchdown performance against New York where he averaged more than 10 yards per attempt. He now has thrown for 26 TD and 9 INT on the year. After Murray went down with a fractured ankle, RB Felix Jones stepped in and rushed for 106 yards on 16 carries, while adding six catches for 31 yards. He’s in line for another productive night against a weak Bucs run defense (140 YPG, 28th in NFL), that has allowed 160 rushing YPG over the past three contests.

Tampa Bay actually had a 14-0 lead last Sunday before surrendering 41 unanswered points to a Jaguars team that had failed to surpass 20 points in any of their first dozen games. The Bucs turned the ball over seven times and now have 23 giveaways in the past seven weeks. QB Josh Freeman threw two interceptions on Sunday and now leads the NFL with 18 picks on the season. He could easily regain his confidence against a Cowboys pass defense that has surrendered 291 passing YPG in the past four games, which includes allowing Eli Manning to throw for 400 yards. The Dallas run defense has not been as kind, holding opponents to 91 rushing YPG on 3.4 YPC in the past four games. This does not bode well for inconsistent Bucs RB LeGarrette Blount who has three 100-yard rushing games and four games of less than 35 rushing yards.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
12/13/2011 08:06 PM

Week 15 Preview: Redskins at Giants



Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: New York -7, Total: 44

The Giants know that three more wins will put them into the playoffs, and they continue that quest Sunday when they entertain NFC East foe Washington.

The Redskins have already beaten the Giants once this year, handily back in Week 1, winning by a 28-14 score. And their offense is finally showing signs of life with Rex Grossman under center and a couple of rookie running backs—Roy Helu and Evan Royster— helping rejuvenate coach Mike Shanahan’s vaunted zone blocking scheme. The Giants have allowed 40.3 PPG and 490 total YPG in the past three contests, so the Redskins should be able to move the football with confidence. The pick here is WASHINGTON, which is 33-15 ATS (69%) as a road underdog of 3.5-to-7 points since 1992, to cover.

There’s also a three-star FoxSheets trend working for the ‘Skins:

WASHINGTON is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) versus terrible defensive teams - allowing >=6 yards/play in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score was WASHINGTON 28.8, OPPONENT 18.9 - (Rating = 3*).

The Redskins have had a hard time breaking into the win column lately, going 1-8 in their past nine games after losing to New England on Sunday. They turned the ball over inside the Patriots’ 10-yard line in the final minute down seven to clinch the loss. They have now coughed up 2+ turnovers in 12 straight games this season, totaling 29 TO during this giveaway fest. Grossman is tied for third in the NFL with 16 interceptions, but he has also thrown for 270 YPG and six touchdowns in the past four games. He is anxious to get on the field after watching how Tony Romo torched the Giants for 321 passing yards and 4 TD.

Helu has rushed for 100+ yards in three straight games, while adding another 102 yards receiving. He could also have a big day against New York’s 22nd-ranked run defense (128 YPG) that has given up 142 rushing YPG in the past four games.

New York has won six of seven SU at home against Washington (5-1-1 ATS) dating back to 2004. The Giants can exact a little revenge on the Redskins after Big Blue embarrassed themselves in Washington in Week 1. In the season opener, the Giants secondary made Grossman look like Johnny Unitas, as he threw for 305 yards, 2 TD and no picks in the 14-point Washington win. New York’s pass defense has been inconsistent all year, surrendering 1,037 yards (346 YPG) in the past three weeks.

But it was Giants QB Eli Manning who threw for 400 yards and two scores to lead his team back from a 12-point deficit with less than four minutes remaining in Dallas last Sunday night. This was New York’s first win in five games and put the G-Men tied atop the NFC East with the Cowboys.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
12/13/2011 08:08 PM

Week 15 Preview: Jets at Eagles



Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: Philadelphia -3, Total: 44.5

The Eagles look to snap a three-game home losing skid when they host a red-hot Jets team seeking its fourth straight victory.

This is a battle of two of the NFL’s most disappointing teams. The Jets are still in the thick of the playoff hunt despite erratic play all season. They’ve not been good on the road, going 2-4 SU and ATS, and they continue to search for an identity on offense. They’ve generated 350-plus yards of offense just once in their past 10 games and have just one win against a current .500 or better team (Dallas 7-6). However, the Eagles are well below .500 at 5-8, and despite scoring 26 points in Miami last week, they only gained 239 total yards (51 rushing) with QB Michael Vick back on the field. But Vick will be tested by a great Jets secondary, and don’t overlook New York’s run defense, which has allowed 100 yards or less to six of its past seven opponents. The pick here is NEW YORK to win on the road.

This FoxSheets trend also sides with the Jets:

N.Y. JETS are 15-3 ATS (83.3%, +11.7 Units) in road games vs. excellent punt coverage teams, allowing <= 7.5 yards per return in the second half of the season since 1992. The average score was N.Y. JETS 21.1, OPPONENT 19.0 - (Rating = 2*).

Despite a pedestrian 299 total YPG during its three-game win streak, New York has piled up 99 points in this time frame. QB Mark Sanchez scored four touchdowns (2 rushing, 2 passing) in last week’s 37-10 rout over Kansas City, giving him nine scores in three weeks. RB Shonn Greene is also on a roll with 295 rushing yards (5.0 YPC), 96 receiving yards and four touchdowns in the past three games. One bit of bad news for the Jets is that starting SS Jim Leonhard suffered what appears to be a season-ending knee injury last Sunday. The absence of the heady Leonhard will make life easier on Vick and the rest of Philly’s passing game.

The Eagles have to be concerned that the NFC’s leading rusher, LeSean McCoy, was held to 38 yards on 27 carries last week. Couple that with Vick’s unwillingness run (two carries against Miami) in fear of taking a shot to the ribs in the open field, especially since Vick isn’t looking to run anymore. He carried the ball just twice against the Dolphins for nine yards, and showed that being a pocket passer isn’t his style. Vick completed only 15-of-30 passes for 208 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. The Eagles have never lost to the Jets franchise, going 8-0 all-time versus New York.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
12/13/2011 08:10 PM

Week 15 Preview: Jaguars at Falcons



Kickoff: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Atlanta -11, Total: 42.5

The Jaguars try to maintain their sudden offensive firepower when they visit the hard-charging Falcons on Thursday night.

Jacksonville ripped off 41 unanswered points versus Tampa Bay last Sunday as Maurice Jones-Drew totaled 136 yards and four scores. Atlanta, 6-2 in its past eight games, has generally taken care of business against the also-rans this year, going 5-1 SU (3-2-1 ATS) against teams that currently have losing records. But the Jags are 2-0-1 ATS when tabbed as a double-digit underdog this season. And although the Falcons have been a strong run defense this year, they have allowed 319 rushing yards (4.8 YPC) in the past two games. And considering Jones-Drew has rushed for 80+ yards in 12 of 13 games this year, he should be able to keep the final score respectable here. The pick here is JACKSONVILLE to win against the spread.

This three-star FoxSheets trend also backs the Jags:

Play On - Underdogs of 10.5 or more points (JACKSONVILLE) - outgained by opponent by 40 or more passing yards/game on the season, after allowing 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt last game. (31-9 since 1983.) (77.5%, +21.1 units. Rating = 3*).

Before their 41-point outburst against the Bucs, the Jaguars failed to score 21 points in any of their first dozen games. Jones-Drew now has five straight games of 100-plus total yards, combining for 745 yards (149 YPG) over this stretch, showing that the entire offense revolves around him. Rookie QB Blaine Gabbert is also playing better lately, with 412 passing yards, 4 TD and 3 INT in the past two games. He is also hoping that the Falcons top cornerbacks, Kelvin Hayden (toe) and Brent Grimes (knee) are not able to return to the field this week.

Like Jacksonville, the Falcons also had a huge offensive outburst in Week 14. QB Matt Ryan threw for 320 yards and four touchdowns in a 31-23 victory over Carolina, successfully erasing a 23-7 halftime deficit. Since the start of November, Ryan has thrown for 299 YPG, 14 TD and 4 INT in six games. Although the Jaguars have some injuries to their secondary, they still forced seven turnovers (3 INT, 4 fumbles) last week against Tampa Bay. But the Falcons talented trio of Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez and Julio Jones might prove too much to handle for a depleted back seven. These teams have faced each other just once in the past eight seasons, a 13-7 Jacksonville victory in 2007.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
12/15/2011 06:40 PM

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record
12/12/11 1-­1-­0 50.00% -­50 Detail
12/11/11 15-­13-­0 53.57% +­350 Detail
12/08/11 0-­2-­0 0.00% -­1100 Detail
12/05/11 0-­2-­0 0.00% -­1100 Detail
12/04/11 15-­13-­0 53.57% +­350 Detail
12/01/11 1-­1-­0 50.00% -­50 Detail
Totals 32-­32-­0 50.00% -­1600

Thursday, December 15

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Jacksonville - 8:20 PM ET Jacksonville +11.5 500

Atlanta - Under 42.5 500

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
12/15/2011 07:22 PM

Trending: NFL year-long trends

With 14 weeks of the NFL season in the books, here are a variety of trends that have been established from this large body of work along with some Week 15 matchups that could fall into these categories:
Home Underdogs of 10 points or more are a perfect 6-0 ATS, including a pair of SU wins(Home Favorites of 10 points or more are an even 12-12 ATS).
Week 15: Kansas City (+13.5) hosting Green Bay

Home Underdogs of more than 6 points are 12-4 ATS (75%).
Week 15: Tampa Bay (+6.5) hosting Dallas
Minnesota (+6.5) hosting New Orleans
Indianapolis (+6.5) hosting Tennessee
St. Louis (+6.5) hosting Cincinnati
Kansas City (+13.5) hosting Green Bay

In all games in which the spread is 1 point or less, Road teams are 6-3 ATS (67%).
Week 15: Detroit (-1) at Oakland

The Under is 5-1 (83%) in games in which the total is 54 or more.
Week 15: None

The Over is 11-6 (65%) in games in which the total is less than 38.
Week 15: Seattle at Chicago (36 Total)
Cleveland at Arizona (36.5 Total)

When the Over receives more than 80% of the public support, the Over is 25-8 (76%).

When the Under receives 58% or more of the public support, the Under is 9-4 (78%).

When the Home team receives 80% or more of the public support, Home teams are 9-6 ATS (60%).

When the Road team receives 86% or more of the public support, Road teams are 7-2 ATS (78%).

When the difference between the opening line and the final line is 3.5 points or more, the side toward which the line moved is 10-3 ATS (77%).

In all Thursday games, the Under is 6-2 (75%).
Week 15: Jacksonville (10-3 Under) at Atlanta (9-4 Under)

In all Monday night games, Home teams are 9-6 ATS (60%). After starting the year 1-4 ATS (20%), Home teams are 8-2 ATS (80%) on Monday night since.
Week 15: San Francisco hosting Pittsburgh

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
12/15/2011 07:25 PM

Play Over - Any team against the total an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) against a poor team (-3 to -7 PPG diff.) after 8 or more games, after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games
59-26 since 1997. ( 69.4% | 30.4 units )

Play On - Road teams vs. the money line (CINCINNATI) average offensive team (4.9 to 5.4 YPP) against a terrible defense (>=5.8 YPP) after 8+ games
86-62 since 1997. ( 58.1% | 0.0 units )
6-2 this year. ( 75.0% | 0.0 units )

Play Against - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (DENVER) slow starting team - outscored by 5+ PPG in the first half, after a win by 6 or less points
46-18 over the last 10 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
7-3 this year. ( 70.0% | 3.7 units )

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
12/15/2011 07:26 PM

Week 15 Preview: Titans at Colts



Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Tennessee -6.5, Total: 41

Tennessee hasn’t swept Indianapolis since 2002, but it has a great chance to end this drought on Sunday against an 0-13 team.

The Titans have lost three in a row and seven of eight SU in Indianapolis, but the Colts are obviously a different team with Peyton Manning out. Tennessee has battled its way back into the playoff picture in large part because of a rejuvenated running game, and that will be especially important with QB Matt Hasselbeck (calf) questionable. After a miserable start to the year, RB Chris Johnson has had 130-plus yards in three of his past five games. Indianapolis has struggled in every facet of the game. QB Dan Orlovsky is likely to get another start, but after a strong outing in New England, he was shut down in Baltimore during a 24-10 loss. Indy has shown little improvement after a blowout this year, going 0-6 ATS after losing by double-digits. The pick here is TENNESSEE to continue that trend with a comfortable win.

This pair of FoxSheets trends also expect the Titans to cover the spread:

TENNESSEE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=130 rushing yards/game over the last 3 seasons. The average score was TENNESSEE 30.9, OPPONENT 15.3 - (Rating = 2*).

INDIANAPOLIS is 2-13 ATS (13.3%, -12.3 Units) after trailing their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half since 1992. The average score was INDIANAPOLIS 16.4, OPPONENT 26.2 - (Rating = 2*).

Tennessee is trying to keep its slim playoff hopes alive after losing to New Orleans last week. The Titans trail the Jets by one game in the AFC Wild Card race. Rookie Jake Locker performed admirably after replacing Hasselbeck last week, throwing for 282 yards (9.7 YPA), rushing for 36 more yards and scoring twice (1 TD run, 1 TD pass). Locker actually rushed the ball much better than Johnson, who finished with just 23 yards on 11 carries. He also struggled against Indianapolis earlier this year, gaining just 34 yards on 14 carries. Although Johnson has a pedestrian 3.7 YPC average in six career games versus the Colts, he has totaled 600 yards from scrimmage in these six meetings. And because Indy ranks third-to-last in the NFL in rush defense (144 YPG), Johnson has a great chance to succeed.

Orlovsky is still looking for his first NFL victory, as he dropped to 0-9 career as a starter with last week’s loss to the Ravens. In that game, Orlovsky was 17-of-37 for 136 yards (3.7 YPA), 1 TD and 1 INT, a far cry from his 353-yard (9.5 YPA), 2-TD performance in New England the prior week. He didn’t get much help from the running game, which totaled 50 yards on 16 carries. Donald Brown led the way with a paltry 28 yards on nine carries, but lost six yards on his only reception. He’s hoping a step down in defensive talent from Baltimore to Tennessee yields positive results. The Titans rank 20th in the NFL in both rushing defense (122 YPG) and passing defense (240 YPG) this season.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs:
cnotes Posts:32996 Followers:38
12/15/2011 07:30 PM

Week 15 Preview: Patriots at Broncos



Kickoff: Sunday, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Line: New England -6.5, Total: 46.5

Two of the league’s hottest clubs duel in the thin air on Sunday when New England visits the Broncos.

The Patriots have always had some issues against Denver during the Tom Brady era. In his career, Brady is just 1-6 SU and ATS against the Broncos, including 0-3 as a favorite. And this year’s matchup will be especially interesting, not only because of the Tim Tebow factor, but because the Broncos’ defense has taken a big step up. Brady will have to deal with December weather in Denver, and with stud rookie LB Von Miller on the pass rush. The New England defense has struggled against opposing passing games, but Tebow has shown an improvement in throwing the football lately. The pick here is DENVER and Tebow to win again.

There’s also a three-star FoxSheets trend favoring the home Broncos:

Play On - Home underdogs or pick (DENVER) - an average offensive team (18 to 23 PPG) against an excellent offensive team (>=27 PPG), after scoring 14 points or less last game. (35-11 since 1983.) (76.1%, +22.9 units. Rating = 3*).

The Pats are riding a five-game win streak, scoring at least 30 points in each of these victories. Brady has been nearly perfect during the surge, throwing for 314 YPG, 13 TD and just one interception. TE Rob Gronkowski has caught nine of these TD passes, and now has 15 on the season, an NFL record for tight ends. Brady also has the league’s receiving leader, Wes Welker (1,339 yards), at his disposal. In terms of the ground game, the Pats have only 44 carries (152 yards, 3.5 YPC) in the past two weeks, but a lot of that has to do with possession times of 24:21 and 23:51 in the two games. Denver’s run-stop unit is below average (124 YPG, 21st in NFL), and has allowed 158 rushing YPG in the past three games, which could prompt the Patriots to establish the run. However, both OT Sebastian Vollmer (back) and OG Dan Connolly (groin) are questionable for Sunday’s game, which could affect the team’s ability to chew up yards on the ground.

Denver has strung together six straight wins (5-0-1 ATS), limiting four of these opponents to 13 points or less. Tebow has averaged a mere 146 passing yards during the win streak, but has an impressive 7 TD and 1 INT in this span. The Broncos now lead the NFL in rushing offense (161 YPG) and were encouraged to see Washington run for 170 yards against New England on Sunday. Although, before Sunday’s contest, the Pats had a streak of eight straight games of holding their opponent to fewer than 120 rushing yards.

Both teams have a couple of injury concerns on the defensive side of the ball. For New England, LB Brandon Spikes (knee) and S Patrick Chung (knee) are both listed as questionable. Denver DE Robert Ayers and FS Brian Dawkins are both questionable with undisclosed injuries.

Always remember the 3 G's Girls,Golf, Gambling not in any particular order......:2thumbs: